Another poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, August 9th, 2010 - 17 comments
Categories: Economy, polls - Tags:

For the poll junkies – yes there’s been another poll. It’s headed “Labour make gains”, but it’s margin of error stuff, so don’t get too excited.

The TV One Colmar Brunton poll tonight showed Labour up 2 points to 35 per cent. National remained ahead with 49 per cent.

The Greens were on 7 per cent, Act 2.7, the Maori Party 2.3 and New Zealand First 2.3.

When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.

For the record, I’m still picking National to lose the next election. Because – it’s the economy stupid. And National haven’t got a clue.

17 comments on “Another poll ”

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  1. mickysavage 1
    9 August 2010 at 11:06 am

    There is no such thing as a bad poll when your support increases.

    Interesting that both TV1 and TV3 arranged polls at the same time, presumably in anticipation that Chris Carter’s difficulties would hurt Labour’s standing. It obviously has not and Phil’s firm stance has helped with his own personal standing.

    Politics is a funny thing …

    • A Post With Me In It 1.1
      9 August 2010 at 1:49 pm

      I think you are confusing the concept of “increased”.

      If your “increase” is within the margin of error you don’t actually know its an increase at all me old chum. 🙂

  2. Lanthanide 2
    9 August 2010 at 11:09 am

    The rest of the polling data from the article linked to which is worth discussing (don’t know why you didn’t include it)

    TV one preferred prime minister: “When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.”

    TV 3 polling:

    “However, just 24 per cent thought Mr Goff could lead Labour to a win at the next election, while 64 per cent said he could not.

    Among Labour voters he had a little more luck – 47 per cent believed he could win, 39 per cent that he couldn’t.

    A TV3 Reid Research poll also out tonight put National on 54.5 per cent, Labour on 30.6, Greens on 8.5, Act on 2.2 and Maori Party and NZ First on 1.5 and United Future on 0.2.

    Mr Key was well out in front in the preferred prime minister stakes, with on 48.7 per cent support, while Mr Goff was on 7.4 and NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.”

    • mickysavage 2.1
      9 August 2010 at 12:06 pm

      I always thought that asking whether or not a voter thought that a leader may win the next election for his party was a waste of time.

      The only relevant information is actual party support. If a person’s preference is affected by their perception of the leader then this will show in the party support figures.

      The polls are closing. Labout is doing I think a reasonably good job about highlighting the issues that count but keeps getting sidetracked by attacks. If they can stick to the message that this Government is doing nothing to improve the situation for ordinary kiwis and in fact is making it far worse then the next election is up for grabs.

      The Labour-Green National- allies split from the Colmar Brunton poll is 42 to 54. There is still at least 12 months to the next election.

      If you want to see how quickly support can change have a look at our Australian neighbours.

  3. Pat 3
    9 August 2010 at 11:13 am

    “I’m still picking National to loose the next election.”

    With Carter on the loose they cannot lose. But if Key gets any looser he might be a loser.

  4. Tigger 4
    9 August 2010 at 11:40 am

    TV3’s choice of images last night was utterly bizarre. When showing Key he was patting wide-eyed children affectionately. Goff was wandering down a Beehive hallway. Also, they showed Goff saying ‘bullshit’. And Chris Carter was shown cooking an omlette. Not sure what subliminal message they were trying to send.

  5. Sanctuary 5
    9 August 2010 at 11:44 am

    it seems to me Labour’s tribal vote is a rock solid 30% – which I think (based on the double dipper’s disasterous show in 2002) is around 5-7% more than the National tribal vote. Chris Carter’s shenanagins may have simply caused core Labour supporters to close ranks against him.

    Labour/Green is 14% behind National. That is, Labour/Greens need to turn around about 150,000 or so voters. If the economy tanks and Labour can give people a reason to vote for them, that is totally achievable.

    • loota 5.1
      9 August 2010 at 11:57 am

      The thing is, the economy by no means flash today and National is still holding around 50%. Australia is still striding ahead of us and even if the MSM is not picking up this message, friends in Australia usually send back live reports loud and clear.

      How bad do things have to get in this country employment and economy-wise before National support erodes to the 40% mark? Not sure I want to be around to witness that, it will be unpleasant.

      • Kevin Welsh 5.1.1
        9 August 2010 at 1:13 pm

        You want to try working in Napier loota, the Onekawa industrial suburb feels like a dead zone now. Hardly a week goes by without news of another closure and I have it on good authority that several high profile companies in the area have problems.

        12 Months is a very long time in politics and even that idiot Garner said on 3 News last night that he expected the gap to close considerably next year.

  6. brooklyn08 6
    9 August 2010 at 11:53 am

    I got the feeling after watching both TVNZ’s and TV3’s coverage of their polls, that they didn’t quite fit the narrative they had hoped for, which I think was either that the Carter saga had hurt or benefitted Goff and Labour. Alas, the movement (in Labour’s favour) was so slight, that neither conclusion could be confidently reached. But what’s with that Reid Research poll? A 14 point gap in the Colmar-Brunton compared to a 24-point gap with Reid research? The Colmar-Brunton seems more aligned with the Roy Morgan of late. Generally, Labour has been inching ahead in support, the Greens are doing well, and National, while still polling high, has been knocked from its lofty heights (gosh I recall 60% in one poll). I’d imagine it’s all downhill for National from now until the election – the rate of descent coupled with the timing of the election will determine who wins in 2011 (and of course Labour’s ability to capitalise on a gravity-afflicted National Party). Then there’s the Winston Peters factor, but Labour could just permanently borrow his superannuation policy meaning lefties need not vote NZ First, at least.

  7. gobsmacked 7
    9 August 2010 at 12:36 pm

    There is no surprise in these polls. They tell us:

    1) Key is a popular Prime Minister. Especially with people who are not very interested in politics. He is seen as the celeb, the non-political PM (note: in image, not reality).

    Unfortunately for Key and National, the wider public may ignore politics between elections, but they do take an interest at election time. He will need something more than the Rugby World Cup.

    2) The Chris Carter story is of huge interest to the press gallery and paid pontificators, and of very little interest to the general public. Hence … no real change in the polls. Why would there be?

    3) On policy, Labour/Greens have been making steady inroads, over several months now. Almost every policy issue is a negative for National. They back down (e.g. mining) or they lose (e.g. Aussie wage gap).

    People like Key. They don’t like his government’s policies.

    The lesson is clear. The opposition focus must be:

    Policy, policy, policy. Gain percentage point by percentage point. Month by month. Delete all distractions, and if necessary, delete the fools who provide the distractions (Shane Jones, Chris Carter). Talk about the economy, wages, prices, jobs, health, ACC, etc, etc.

    It’s not thrill-a-minute, not for political junkies like us, not for the press gallery who want Big Bangs. But if you want entertainment, watch movies. This is reality.

    (although when you think about a NACT second term …. that’s a horror movie. A sequel. Let’s make sure it never gets made).

    • marsman 7.1
      9 August 2010 at 1:19 pm

      Right on gobsmacked. And also…Let’s do our best to un-make the the NACT horror movie part 1.

    • Adrian 7.2
      9 August 2010 at 2:06 pm

      Exactly, beautifully said.. p.s Business confidence down again today. The fall of idols is a slow process, but it is happening. We have to remind people, that actually we did have it bloody good under Labour, and will again.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1
        9 August 2010 at 5:24 pm

        Not if they maintain the capitalist/dictatorial paradigm. Of course, most of us haven’t had it “good” under that system ever – just less bad.

    • Armchair Critic 7.3
      9 August 2010 at 8:34 pm

      Nicely said, gs. Hoping for a big bang implosion from National won’t work, Labour need to gradually build their support so they can win an election by May next year (just in case…).
      On the horror movie theme, There is a Friday the 13th next May.

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