- Date published:
4:34 pm, November 11th, 2011 - 46 comments
Categories: act, don brash, election 2011, john banks, nz first - Tags: election debates, winston peters
Are you sick of the whole “cup of tea” symbolism? I know I am. None the less, the meeting has taken place, and Epsom has been asked to hold its nose and vote for failed Nat retread John Banks, and with him on his coat tails failed Nat retread Don Brash. The “endorsement” of Banks was, however, somewhat ambiguous:
However the Prime Minister said he would not personally vote for Mr Banks, despite compelling Epsomites to take up the deal. …
However, the Prime Minister indicated he would prefer a National-only cabinet – which means a ministerial role is probably out for Banks.
“Compelling”? Poor choice of phrase! So much for Banks.
Say what you like about Winston Peters (and who hasn’t) – but if he makes it back in to parliament it will be on his own terms, not by grovelling in public for an electorate deal. When Peters announced that he would support neither major party in government I wrote him off – but it looks like the electorate disagrees with me. All of a sudden NZF is up to 2.9% in the TVNZ poll, and on the strength of being margin of error from the 3% threshold he’s been offered a place in the minor parties TV1 leader’s debate on Nov 16th. That puts the cat among the pigeons!
The Nats will be spitting. That’s the oxygen of publicity that they hoped that Peters would never see. If Peters can pull a brilliant debate out of his double breasted suit pocket, he just might pick up another 2% and drag NZF over the 5% line for seats in the next parliament. The Nats’ usual spinsters are already out there trying to drum up hysteria at the prospect. Speaking as no fan of Winston Peters, I’m not thrilled about the idea of his return either. But, as above, if he gets there, he will have a lot more legitimacy than the reanimated zombie that is calling itself the ACT party.
Somehow Peters seeking a mandate by meetings and low cost canvassing seems at least honest, compared to the Banks sucking up. Never voted for Winston but do have fun with my Gold card.
Winston: Once Was National
Winston has credibility as a man with true traditional National values
He didn’t leave the National Party.
The National Party deserted him – the National Party got hijacked by corporates, greedies and traitors
Looking at the minor parties in the latest Roy Morgan that just arrived in the e-mail.
NZ First is also sitting at 4.5% (they consistently poll around 3% on average) along with Mana at 1%.
With Act at a lowly 1% and long term falling trend – I don’t think that a wee drinkee with Key will do bugger all. United Future has less than 0.5% as part of its consistently bad polling(sorry Peter G), and the the Maori party at 2% – pretty much where they have been stuck since they had a coalition with National.
So National is looking pretty sick if it needs coalition partners. It is at 53% with what looks like a slowly falling trend. I’m betting that it is an inflated figure because of the listed landline polling flaw and the type of people who actually do polls. I’m expecting something closer to 45-47% on the day.
Labour is also falling slowly trending down (26%) with considerable jiggling around. But they have the polling problem in reverse.
The Greens are at 12% and slowly trending up – but as I recall they did the same frigging thing (>10%) last election a few weeks out and got a paltry 6.7% on the day. Yeah – the poll taken a week after the election they got 9.5%…
Oh and the Government Confidence Rating just did a plummet. Looks like the Rugby World cup effect is over.
It is going to be an interesting election..
Polling for that Roy Morgan Poll commenced the day after the RWC Final with Key attached limpet-like to Richie McCaw and National still recorded a slight fall!
Shit, not good news for the NATs. I’m still picking them to get 44% to 45% on the day.
They’ll get back into power if there is a whole of votes wasted on NZ1, UF, Mana etc. and if the Mp pull through strongly. Or if the Greens side with them.
Yeah I noticed that.. Still in the glow period. The RWC is complicating this election. Since the RWC this site bounced up by about 4k page views a day in the following week.
As time gets closer ordinary kiwis think that there is no way they will give one party absolute rule. Expect the minor parties to go even higher except for United Follicles who are shot.
What I would really like is for the Conservatives to score 4.5% and not win Rodney. That of itself could be the game changer.
Expect also a ludicrous debate about how the biggest party should form the Government. Essentially this is a tory view that green supporters votes should have no effect.
Finally the hair-piece will be on his own, if not out of parliament.
Well he was upeat on IPredict tonight, confidently betting they would get over 1.5%, he will win his electorate, and have 3 UF MPs in parliament. Phoeby Fletcher though was not betting above 1% on UF.
It’s very interesting, small party fluctuations and large party moves. I think it’s all quite volatile, two or three increases for UF this week then dropping right off Morgan which we had consistently been maintaining a small presence in with a last pool up tick.
I think what this means is floating voters are staertiung to sort of decide but there’s still a lot of uncertainty so we can expect more swings or surges or slides.
It could all come down to the luck of the bounce, which reef the media fish flock to, who strikes the right chord in a debate or whatever.
It’s kinda weird that our democracy floats on such fickle breezes.
Feck two in one post …
Agreed Petey …
It always does at this point in the cycle – everything goes fickle one to two months out and people start to think who they will actually vote for. The number of undecided moves up. We are in the third party phase right now as people try them on for fit – that usually chops up the main opposition support. Usually we then get a phase of the incumbents losing votes and opposition support consolidating around fewer parties.
The numbers of people willing to talk to pollsters increases as they make up their mind (ie the >30% rejection rates diminish), and the polls start to resemble less fiction and more fact. Of course the massive and worsening skew from landlines is making reading the polling tealeaves a lot harder.
It has been compressed this time because of the RWC. But the Act and UF survival doesn’t look good to me. I think that electorate voters have had enough of nudge nudge politics
Mr Robins comments are quite typical of the commentators with the comment he is not thrilled with the prospect of him coming back but qualifies that with the throw away that he has some legitimacy when compared against ACT. We hear no commentary on the quality or otherwise of his policies. I think that when the journos wake up and read what he is about in terms of policy the penny may drop as to why the Nats will be spitting.
Mike I have to agree with you there his policy and his decorum/composure on this piece I watched were quite interesting to see especially when it is compared to the complete waffle coming out of the National and Act camps.
when is the story going to hit about john bank the women headhunters and p convictions
My layperson interpretation:
The additional problem for National is that NZ First is more likely to be picking up votes from disaffected voters who would tend to vote towards the right, and who have probably indicated this in opinion polling up until now. If this is a correct assumption, then 5+% for NZ First is going to see the National percentage drop by a substantial proportion of that.
While NZ First say that they will be in opposition regardless, the fact remains that at 5% and if the election result is close, the successful party will have difficulty getting controversial legislation passed. Asset sales would be a case in point here. National may very well be in government but hamstrung by the lack of a majority which would allow them to implement controversial legislation. This may, in an extreme case in a very tight election result, also mean that an opposition private member’s bill could get passed into law! Or have I got this totally wrong? Am interested in what others have to say about this.
IF NZ1st stay in opposition and we end up with a minority government then NZ1st will have to either make a confidence and supply agreement or agree to abstain. This would allow the government to function but NZ1st wouldn’t be able to achieve anything.
Unless NZ1st agree to neither and goes on each policy individually. That could be interesting as it would effectively break the present parliamentary norm of government vs opposition and probably cabinet as well. Don’t know what that would do for passing budgets but it would certainly allow for “opposition” bills to be passed.
Supply and confidence basically means when a vote of no confidence is held, which I believe at the start and end of each year in government as well as at budget time. If the government fails any of those, they’re dissolved.
So I think Winston would have to abstain on these (he couldn’t vote against), but if he decided National was pissing him off he could make a motion of no confidence at any time, hold a vote and throw out the government.
I’d think Winston would be taking more from Labour than National, at this stage. But that would be the more conservative Labour voters and that pool is probably pretty dry now. So if NZF want to hit 5%, then they need to attract ‘wet’ Nats, for example voters that think selling assets is wrong, but don’t want to give Labour their support.
If Winston does make it, then it will probably turn out to be a minority government for either Labour or National.
Plenty of wet tories and soft NAT support around (who aren’t ready to go back to Labour yet).
Because there are more NAT supporters than LAB at the moment, NATs have far more to lose – compounded by their lack of viable coalition partners.
“NZ First is more likely to be picking up votes from disaffected voters who would tend to vote towards the right,”
In the last week, two elderly men have spontaneously announced that they’re fed up with NACT and intend voting for Winnie because he’s “honest”. Yeah – right!
One can have the most interesting conversations while waiting for buses, or walking home from getting off one!
One or two spoons of racism in your cuppa, Mr Key?
My god, did Banks really just say he thinks about Maori and PI men sitting around, watching porn?
Yep, and getting stoned and busing into Epsom to do burglaries.
Banks’ Melissa Lee moment.
Not busing toad. They use the motorway and stop off in Epsom on their way to West Auckland.
Hoping the rumours are true, and for a hilarious announcement from Hone whenever the time is perfect. In which case, Key giving a bit more ‘sugar’ to John Bonks, would have been even better. Still, that hugely-hyped tea party will still be in the public consciousness, regardless.
he he he …
I just hope that it is third time unlucky for National to ask Epsom to vote strategically. I really do think that the Epsom voters have wised up to Act and I reckon they know that Brash will get rolled as leader by the end of the year if Act get back in.
Is that all they’ve got? Days of media beat up about “a cuppa between Banks and Key.” As if some of Keys snake oil will rub off on Banks. Did somebody say half the customers left? I don’t blame them.
Meanwhile Act is polling at .7% and Paula Bennetts beneficiary bashing is coming back to bite her on the arse at the most inopportune time. National’s polling is starting to slip as people wake up to the fact they have no real plan except to sell the family silver to their rich mates.
But hey! That’s all OK because National and Act believe the public is so dumb they will think; “aren’t those two politicians nice, having a cup of tea… let’s vote for them.” They basically think the public is stupid en masse. Unfortunately it appears that the media is lapping it up like a bunch of lap dogs. Grr!
They both looked desperate today and frankly whoever is running National’s campaign (is that you Stephen Joyce?) has underestimated the political capital they have had to spend on today’s farce.
I like how all the press stayed outside looking in on them through a plexiglass window, like they were monkeys in a zoo.
Revolting sight on the news. Key and Banks deserve each other. Both lying opportunistic shysters. Wonder what hourly rate the staff in the cafe are on? Fuck this. Might have to have a cup myself…
Solid , stable government, Michael Cullen-like… go Labour. It is not a wasted vote.. it is a vote for a party with a solid core of decency and a belief in the wider good rather than the selfish “me” only votes of the right. Goff has shown himself well over the last fortnight, and his lietenants will acquit themselves well.
For what it’s worth Anthony I pretty much agree with your post. I’ve never been a fan of Peters but NZF were hard done by last election due to our high threshold. I think it’s good he well be inluded in the debates, what I’ve seen of him over the last couple of months has been very mixed, it could all come down to how he performs on the night.
Agreed Petey …
It really could. The fickle winds of fate, as you remarked above…
Here’s a quote of John Banks as he met John Key and walked to the cafe with him:
“11th day, 11th month, 11th year, ah, all the aaaahh stars in the solar system are lining up for ya jay-kay”
If there were national standards in science, I think John Banks would fail them.
I think he would fail a number of tests that I could think of. Do you have a source? Facebook is crying out for a statement lime this.
Starts about 24 seconds in on this video: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5948536/PM-and-Banks-have-their-Epsom-cup-of-tea
No written source that I’ve been able to locate.
Its also remberance day. Should have been a minutes silence at 11am. But Key doesn’t do silence very well.
Wasn’t that just sickening watching that ass-licking Banks sucking up like that.
I can’t believe we face the prospect of having that whack-job back in parliament again. Its like a nightmare that just keeps going.
Another 100,000 or more will make instant plans to leave NZ for good if that fool should get in.
Spare a thought for us that cannot leave.
Some here cried at Labour’s opening address
Because they’d never really seen them in the flesh before
You see the doors had been shut for three long years
Relief is the reason for those welcome tears
And now Winnie’s pried them open – tremble, NACT men
Because he won’t disappoint
It’s crying time again.
I am just waiting for Campaign to show tomorrow It’s supposed to have Key on it, unless he does the usual, and is a no show.
How long will it be before key and his minders attack winston personally, to turn voters off.
Always happens,but nz knows he’s a war horse and will fight for what he believes in,probably
goes back to his ancestors.
Acshualy,Winnie bought in some very good policies with his teaming up with the labour govt,there was also wage increases for the minimum wage,the gold card,others that have
not been detailed to the media,key and co dont want him there period,he is a threat and rats
How can nz’ers honestly keep in Key and his rorters of tax payer funds,with lies,corruption,
mis-truths,etc,on the back of one man and not on what is best for nz as a whole, a very
self obssesed,self gratifying amount nz’ers appear to be in a trance when having a hand shake
or a hand on them by Key, it is one of stupidity when a section of nz is marginalised by
by negligent and irresponsible policies.