Latest Colmar Brunton: NAT 48%, LAB+GR 39%

Written By: - Date published: 6:08 pm, September 12th, 2016 - 315 comments
Categories: elections, Media, Politics, polls - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton poll is out.

NZ First are the big winners on 11%, up 2%.

Labour are down 3% to 26% (the lowest they have polled in the Colmar Brunton since 2014), and the Greens are up 1% on 13%. In my view, Winston won’t look at supporting a LAB/GR coalition until their combination are slightly higher, perhaps at around the 42%-43% mark.

National stay unchanged on 48% despite continued bad news for them on the housing/homeless crisis.

Maori Party is up 1% at 2%.

315 comments on “Latest Colmar Brunton: NAT 48%, LAB+GR 39%”

  1. Sigh 1

    Sure enough CV can’t wait more than a few minutes to put up a bullshit poll attacking Labour. Do you think he put up the recent Reid Research poll as quickly which showed Labour on 33?

    As someone who has access to UMR polls this Colmar poll strikes me as completely out of whack.

  2. James 2

    Labour has been quick to attack the poll, leader Andrew Little saying the poll is “bogus” and he doesn’t accept it. He says he has seen other polls that tell a completely different story.

    That’s brilliant- now he’s going for the rogue poll line as well. All polls have labour looking terrible – except for the ones Andrew little gets to see and we don’t apparently.

    • Sigh 2.1

      UMR and Reid Research both have Labour between 31 and 33.

      Roy Morgan is a joke and everyone knows it after they had National up 10 points then down 7 recently within a few weeks.

      Colmar is on its own.

      • Leftie 2.1.1

        NBR: Roy Morgan manager defends *that* poll

        “There was eye-rolling from the left and the right, and I can see why: there were no political bombshells during the survey period (June 17 to early July) to warrant such a shift.”

        “Surveys between election cycles remain a pretty dodgy proposition.”

        <a href="http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/roy-morgan-manager-defends-poll

      • I love the way Roy Morgan has one rogue and everyone’s suddenly saying it’s as bad as Colmar Brunton, the Herald, and other rubbish polls. They shouldn’t be defending their rogue poll, of course, but I think it’s fair to give them one in an election cycle. If it happens again, THEN we can start calling them a joke.

        • Phil 2.1.2.1

          they shouldn’t be defending their rogue poll, of course, but I think it’s fair to give them one in an election cycle.

          A typical election poll has a margin of error of “plus or minus three percent within a 95% confidence interval”.

          To translate for the non-statisticians, that means roughly one-in-twenty polls will produce results that would, in common parlance, be considered ‘rogue’.

          When I see a poll result like CB’s uptick and subsequent drop, I actually take a great deal of confidence from it. It means CB trusts its methodologies and processes enough to publish results as-is, and resist the urge to herd toward the prevailing wisdom of other company results.

    • billmurray 2.2

      James, your remarks smack of the truth.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.3

      Isn’t the Colmar Brunton poll the one that always overstates National by ~5%?

      • Leftie 2.3.1

        Yes it is, Draco T Bastard. CB has form and always overstates National and understates the opposition.

      • JamieB 2.3.2

        AT the 2014 election they had understated National support by 3%.

      • Enough is Enough 2.3.3

        Draco – No

      • john 2.3.4

        Really:
        September 2014 Colmar Brunton:
        National………46%
        Labour…………25%
        Green…………..14%
        NZF………………7%

        Election Result one month later:
        National…………47%
        Labour……………25%
        Green……………..10%
        NZF…………………9%
        Not too bad huh?

        • Leftie 2.3.4.1

          Funny how these pollsters do a quick readjustment of their figures just prior.

          • Phil 2.3.4.1.1

            Funny how these pollsters do a quick readjustment of their figures just prior.,

            Ummm…. what?

            This makes literally no sense.

            • Leftie 2.3.4.1.1.1

              Yes it does when the pollsters usually have the Nats polling so much higher through out the year.

              • Phil

                So… in your world no-one ever changes their mind?
                Or, undecided voters always remain undecided?

                • Leftie

                  Its not about “my world” Phil. Opinion polling is a flawed process that can be easily manipulated.

                  • Phil

                    The process for turning raw opinion poll responses into aggregate summary information in a press release is no more flawed or ‘manipulated’ than, say, temperature data on climate change or income data on poverty.

                    If you’re too ignorant to understand how polling is undertaken and what the limitations of a particular poll are, that’s 100% on you.

  3. Whateva next? 3

    Great that Andrew simply squashed it on the news, which is all it deserves

    • billmurray 3.1

      Whateva next, if you are serious you have your head up your arse

    • Anne 3.2

      I haven’t seen the item yet but Little needs to constantly show disdain for these polls – especially those involving TV1 and TV3. There is an inbuilt bias favouring National and it goes back decades. He needs to openly treat them with the contempt they deserve.

      He should also point out that the media generally is a disgrace by constantly giving the govt a free pass for their disastrous governance on many fronts while, at the same time, over-egging minor alleged indiscretions against Labour personnel.

      Sock it to em Andrew. The masses perceive politeness as a weakness.

      • Whateva next? 3.2.1

        Agree, polls are a device of crosby textor, and we would all be better off without them.

        • Leftie 3.2.1.1

          +1 Anne and Whateva next!! There is no doubt that the Nats use opinion polling as electioneering tools as part of their spin kit.

        • Chuck 3.2.1.2

          Have you told Andrew Little and Labour to stop using these nasty polls then?

          Really Whateva next…how do you expect any party to know if they are at least going in the right direction with the public? And no, checking with the hardcore party faithful does not achieve it.

      • Atiawa 3.2.2

        Little suffers from the sins of the father syndrome. He needs to stop pussy footing around and start saying what he really thinks about housing, health,immigration, the regions,crime, wages, work – you name it. It’s as if he’s too guarded about the “they did it too” response towards his disgust.
        Stop fucking around Andrew, and tell it the way you see it. 2017 will be your one and only opportunity. Robertson & Ardern will be baying for blood if you fail.

        • AmaKiwi 3.2.2.1

          @ Atiawa

          True. “Little suffers from the sins of the father syndrome.” The Parliamentary Labour Party (caucus) committed a lot of sins from 2008 to the present. I’ll vote Labour for my electorate MP but my party vote????

      • Chuck 3.2.3

        “Sock it to em Andrew. The masses perceive politeness as a weakness.”

        The public will also see it as Little throwing his toys out of the cot.

        Keep calm Anne, and just maybe this is a rouge poll…but if the next couple still have Labour sub 30% then yep a trend is setting in.

      • Gosman 3.2.4

        Except the polls were broadly accurate at the last election.

    • Leftie 3.3

      +1 Whateva next.

  4. James 4

    Sigh – it’s more like the UMR is out of whack with everybody else.

    • BM 4.1

      I think Andrew Little is starting to lose his grasp on reality.

      • billmurray 4.1.1

        BM, not only Andrew Little but also a lot of the commentators to this post. You are right!!!.

      • Draco T Bastard 4.1.2

        The real problem is that we have an economic system that’s disconnected from reality and it’s promoted by all the RWNJs.

      • Mike Bond 4.1.3

        Well said BM. The thing that worries me is that no one on the left can see that the majority of Kiwis are sick of the negativity from Labour. National have stuffed up in a few instances and instead of gaining ground using the stuff ups to their advantage, they carry on and on like a stuck record about a certain thing. Take the Auckland housing issue. I think 80% of Kiwis want to throw up when the Auckland housing issue is mentioned! It is clear that Andy targets a certain market that also fail to see reality and live in a fools paradise. If this very same poll has Andy up at 15% as preferred PM and Labour at 34%, then I am sure Andy will not be calling it “bogus”.

    • Sigh 4.2

      UMR got closest to the last two election results. Colmar Brunton had National on something like 52%.

    • Johan 4.3

      Another BS Colmar Brunton TV1 poll, with a +_3.0% accuracy, which means Labour could be polling 3% higher and the Nats 3% lower a difference of 6%. Also, lets not forget the 25% of the people who were phoned, told Colmar Brunton to piss-off!!!

      • Nic the NZer 4.3.1

        Thinking about that +/-3% well there are other polls and they are frequently more than 3% away from each other. This indicates that the polls are not all sampling the same result. At most one of these polls can be closest to the actual election results and when they are different by much more than their sampling error you have to ask are they even polling the election result?

        Note that the actual margin of error just means if the same poll was conducted of the same group at the same time the results are likely to be +/-3 percent of this one. It doesnt mean the election result is sure to be within the margin of error at all.

      • Leftie 4.3.2

        +1 Johan.

      • ankerawshark 4.3.3

        Yes Johan,

        My husband was one of those who told them to P..ss off…..

        Little was right to dismiss the poll. Think he has been telling it straight and seemed a lot less mumbly on The Daily Blog/Waita news.

        • Michelle 4.3.3.1

          Last night TV ones news had the gnats polling @ 58% I think this is bullshert people are sick and tired of them maybe they polled one of the gnats safe seat areas. TV one is being controlled by the gnats government and so are state servants. The tories will get rid of TV one they have already dumbed it down like they have done to education and everything else they touch. Its all about making money f….k the people.

      • JamieB 4.3.4

        National could be polling 3% higher and Labour 3% lower too…

  5. Paul 5

    26 + 13 + 11 = 50

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      48 + 2 = 50.

    • Colonial Viper 5.2

      But will Labour give up half the seats in Cabinet if it only has half the MPs required for the government?

      Personally I think the Greens deserve much more than 2 or 3 token Cabinet positions if they are providing 1/3 of the MPs.

      • BM 5.2.1

        They’d be delusional to think otherwise.

        • McGrath 5.2.1.1

          The Greens should demand a proportional share of cabinet should they be in government. It would be insulting to them if they’re thrown scraps yet make up a significant portion of the total winning vote.

          • Sacha 5.2.1.1.1

            Just on merit they would get more anyway.

          • BM 5.2.1.1.2

            And NZ first, funny thing is Peters would be more likely to go with lab and greens if that was the case.

            If National is at 48% at election time, they only need 1-2% of NZ firsts vote, the other side needs the whole lot.

            It would be a complete and utter fuck up of a coalition, that may last a year if lucky and crash the NZ economy, but it will finish the left for good and probably see in a majority National government for the foreseeable future.

            • Hanswurst 5.2.1.1.2.1

              That government would both collapse and crash the economy in the space of under a year? Well, someone here is certainly delusional.

          • Bearded Git 5.2.1.1.3

            The Greens will be in no position to demand anything. (I vote Green)

          • Stuart Munro 5.2.1.1.4

            In fact it would be quite healthy if a workable proportional breakdown became standard for any combination of mmp parties. Parties like Greens, Maori, or NZ First should get positions to play with proportionate to their support. It would also be nice to eliminate margin of error types like Dunne and Seymour from consideration for senior positions since they are lacking a genuine public mandate.

      • AmaKiwi 5.2.2

        @ CV

        Based on game theory, the party most essential to form the government will have the most leverage at the bargaining table. That is unlikely to be The Greens because they have no other potential dance partner. But Winston does.

        No matter how much you may like The Greens, being on the left of the political spectrum is a weak bargaining position. Same for ACT on the right.

      • alwyn 5.2.3

        That might be true as far as the numbers go.
        Can you really nominate half of the Green MPs that you would be willing to see in a Cabinet? They have already lost their two most competent MPs this term in Norman and Hague.
        They would pretty much have to follow the party pecking order and of their top 9 I can only imagine 3 of them being competent. Shaw, Sage and Genter might make the cut. Hague is now unavailable.
        Let’s face it. Can you seriously imagine Turei, Hughes, Delahunty, Graham or Mathers being Ministers of the Crown?
        What would they be? Turei would be minister of Castle renovation and Jousting I suppose.
        Hughes would make a Minister of Klingon Relationships perhaps?
        I then get to Delahunty and the thought of her horrifies me. She was the one who was so stupid, or corrupt, that when she shared a Wellington flat with another MP it never occurred to her that perhaps they couldn’t both claim as expenses the whole of the rent payment.

        • framu 5.2.3.1

          “What would they be? Turei would be minister of Castle renovation and Jousting I suppose.”

          shes a fully qualified corp lawyer – take your dumb smears elsewhere.

          • alwyn 5.2.3.1.1

            Gosh! A fully qualified lawyer. Are you quite sure? There was a debate on this site about a person dubbed a lawyer. We were assured that he wasn’t entitled to claim that status as he didn’t have a practising certificate. Neither does Turei. She may have been such a person once but she certainly isn’t now is she?

            Do you remember the great Tom Paxton song on the subject of lawyers?
            http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/tompaxton/onemillionlawyers.html
            That summed them up pretty well.

  6. James 6

    Hooton and trotter are looking like they may just be right – could labour actually end up sub 20% at the election ?

    They don’t have much wiggle room left.

    • Sigh 6.1

      Oh you are too much

    • Colonial Viper 6.2

      25% +/-3% is my guess, and has been for some time. LAB won’t go under 20% in an election for some time yet.

    • dukeofurl 6.3

      Does 3% , thats within the margin of error, mean anything to you.

      “The poll of just over 1000 voters was taken between the 3rd and 7th of September and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.”

    • Leftie 6.4

      James, you mean like National did in the 2002 election with just 20.93% Nats did so much worse than Labour did in 2014.

      • James 6.4.1

        Indeed. But then the changed. Labour since losing power have simply changed the leads again and again with diminishing levels of success. Thus the continued dropping in the polls.

        • Leftie 6.4.1.1

          Just like when the Nats lost power and changed leaders again and again when they were in opposition for 9 years. The political tide comes and goes James. NZ politics is largely cyclic and the National coalition government is on the wane.

      • Richard McGrath 6.4.2

        “…you mean like National did in the 2002 election with just 20.93%”

        Actually they only garnered support from 16.2% of the eligible voters, as turnout was 77%.

    • Stuart Munro 6.5

      It’s about as likely as Dotcom hacking the pollsters to reveal the Gnats are actually polling at 24%, with the vast majority abusive and refusing to be polled.

  7. billmurray 7

    CV, this poll is a disaster for Labour, in my opinion the MOU with the Greens is the party-pooper.
    Please anyone do not say rogue poll.
    Labour are making a lot of noise but it is falling on deaf ears.
    The “wing and a prayer” mob will tell us that Winnie will come to our rescue.
    Maybe if the Labour party offers the Prime ministership to Winnie and the Greens agree, then he might be tempted.
    The MOU expires the day after the election, perhaps that should be revisited by Labour.
    We have the biggest housing cost spiral and the most homelessness scandal in our history and the once great Labour Party is at 26%, leadership must take the blame and not blame every-one but themselves.

    • Sigh 7.1

      But Andrew Little is up three points. The poll makes no sense.

      • billmurray 7.1.1

        Sigh, the leadership of our party must take the blame, not just Andrew Little, by going nowhere we are losing badly.

        • McFlock 7.1.1.1

          “we”.

          If Labour has supporters who parrot farrar without bothering to read the bullshit properly, perhaps they should just join national.

          • billmurray 7.1.1.1.1

            Mcflock, my party and its adherents, which apparently includes you, need to face facts.
            The Labour party leadership is NOT getting traction, Labour party leadership seems blind to fact.
            They are not attracting funds or targeted demographic.
            Head in the sand politics is insanity at this stage of the election cycle, particularly if an early election is called.
            Surely you understand???????????

            • McFlock 7.1.1.1.1.1

              I understand that when you say “blind to fact”, you don’t include using kiwiblog as your news source.

              What you say might be true. But I get the impression that any similarity with parties living or dead is purely coincidental.

              • billmurray

                Mcflock , read 7.37 pm, what is your opinion, I would appreciate your thoughts.

                • McFlock

                  I think that if the political system forces parties to dumb down their policy to the level that you suggest regarding the TPPA, to the point that a massive multinational treaty be responded to with absolutely no nuance and just have a firm “yes or no” statement, then the country deserves the government it gets.

                  The reasons people vote for particular parties are complex, not well understood and I suspect change significantly according to the zeitgeist.

                  The methods of gauging the support for different parties, particularly this far out from an election, are massively flawed.

                  Determining the tactical motivations coming from the poorly understood and volatile reasons behind the relative support accrued by parties as estimated by those flawed method is a process so prone to subjective whim as to constitute nothing more than overpaid social welfare for puffed-up giblet-scryers.

                  • billmurray

                    McFlock, I disagree with you, voters are looking for clear and precise answers on issues of such importance to our future.
                    A bob each way is a leadership weakness.
                    There could be an early election, not according to Key but he was a successful forex trader and he knows the power of feint.
                    Labour would be up a creek without a paddle as National will rub their noses in it on this policy.

                    • McFlock

                      That might well be what voters are after (although as I say I don’t think anybody really knows for sure).

                      But if voters really do want some sort of idiocracy where complex geopolitical and economic positions are reduced to “good” or “bad”, then we’re a nation of morons who deserve what we get. That level of granular thinking is not conducive to our nation’s health, wealth, success, or continued independence.

                  • AmaKiwi

                    @ McFlock

                    “The reasons people vote for particular parties are complex, not well understood”

                    I beg to differ. Huge amounts of money are spent worldwide developing election winning strategies.

                    National uses this research well. Since 2008 the Parliamentary Labour Party (caucus) did not because they were torn apart by ideological and personality conflicts. The results show it. Will they recover? I don’t know.

                    • McFlock

                      Yeah but National’s campaigns didn’t exist in a vacuum. Look at the context of those three campaigns – the only setpiece political fight they had was the moment of truth, where they would have pulled the same response no matter what was “revealed”.

          • Leftie 7.1.1.1.2

            McFlock, Billmurray is one of those righties, pretending to be a leftie.

      • Grantoc 7.1.2

        So what.

        Little being up 3 points is of no significance; except that he remains less popular than Peters.

  8. The lost sheep 8

    Time to get that left side wheel out of the ditch and head for the middle of the road.

    Another just released poll from the U.K.
    ‘77% of British voters now see themselves as centrist or right of centre’
    The same poll in NZ would replicate this result.

    Now if you want to be Govt….1+1 = ?

    • billmurray 8.1

      The lost sheep, also a great help would be if they started saying praying for assistance, can’t do any harm!!!!!!.

      • The lost sheep 8.1.1

        Praying couldn’t hurt.
        BWTF is wrong with simply starting thinking?

        If nothing changes it’s going to be a 60% NAT/NZF Govt.
        Think about it.

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          With 2020 in the bag for National/NZF

          Strategically, National have got to find a way to bring NZ First on side as that guarantees them the next 2 elections, and permanently reduces Labour to a 20% party.

          This could easily be done by National accepting a few steps back towards being ‘traditional old school’ National, instead of ‘neoliberal bankster prick’ National.

          • Leftie 8.1.1.1.1

            I doubt that your wish will come true Colonial Viper. Judging by the way Winston Peters talks, NZ First won’t be propping up the Nats.

            Remember when National were a 20.93% party? Labour are capable of turning themselves around, and are doing so, just like the Nats did.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Labour aren’t capable of “turning themselves around” simply because they have no idea where they are going.

              • Leftie

                Labour knows, so of course Labour are capable of turning themselves around Colonial Viper, they have a hell of a lot more ideas than the empty Nats.

          • tauputa 8.1.1.1.2

            This comment requires Winston surviving another 7 years, unlikely given his lifestyle and age. I’m giving the old rooster another term in power and when he goes his party (cult of personality) goes with him. What follows that will be interesting.

            • Leftie 8.1.1.1.2.1

              I was reading about a Lab UK MP who retired from politics at the age of 79, she used to be an actress, Glenda Jackson. I was very impressed. As long as the body and mind holds up, age shouldn’t be a barrier.

        • billmurray 8.1.1.2

          The lost sheep, “thinking” I am not sure they would understand you. but you are right they have their heads in sand.

    • DS 8.2

      Based off that poll you linked to, 60% see themselves as either centrist or centre-left (rising to 70% if you include left).

      Most people like to consider their own views mainstream. No news there.

    • AmaKiwi 8.3

      @ The Lost Sheep

      That’s a meaningless polling question.

      People vote their emotions, the personalities of the candidates, the state of the economy, and war.

      I follow politics closely and I could not rank the MPs of any of the parties as to whether within their party they are left, right, or center.

      • The lost sheep 8.3.1

        You wouldn’t say that David Shearer or Phil Goff are anymore right or left inclined than David Cunliffe or Andrew Little? Maybe you aren’t following as closely as you think.

    • Stuart Munro 8.4

      “Time to get that left side wheel out of the ditch and head for the middle of the road.”

      RWNJ – unsafe at any speed.

  9. Clean_Power 9

    Terrible figures for a weak leader like Andrew Little. It should be curtains for him.

    • James 9.1

      It would be. If they had anyone to replace him.

    • Colonial Viper 9.2

      Little has done a great job of unifying the caucus and the electorate will definitely reward that.

      • billmurray 9.2.1

        CV, not sure they are unified as you say, they are certainly better than they used to be, the party list could cause some problems.

    • mickysavage 9.3

      His rating is up 3%. Think again.

      • James 9.3.1

        To a mammoth 10% and behind Winnie – again. What a winnner.

      • Lanthanide 9.3.2

        I think party support is ultimately more important. The incumbent always does better than the opposition in the preferred PM stakes.

          • Lanthanide 9.3.2.1.1

            You got me red-handed, I should have said “almost always”.

            But the graphs back up the larger point I was making – on 2008 election night, preferred PM was 38% Key vs 37% Clark.

            Meanwhile, National got 45% and Labour got 34%.

            • Bob 9.3.2.1.1.1

              What did John Key do in his first 9 months as leader of the opposition?
              He went from a complete unknown (according to the polls) to party leader, to a lead over the incumbent in the preferred PM stakes all in a 9 month period (and that included the Xmas break), so surely Labour could learn something from the way he got traction early on…

              • Lanthanide

                He said things like how the affordability of housing was at crisis levels, and that National would tackle “the underclass”.

    • Leftie 9.4

      Why? What makes you think Little is weak? Helen Clark was polling at 2% prior to becoming PM.

      • alwyn 9.4.1

        She was very low in the polling in 1994. She got up to about 17% in 1996 but didn’t make it to the beehive..
        She finally got there in 1999. Five long years to paraphrase George Gregan’s taunt.
        On that precedent Labour have no chance in 2017. That makes it, at the earliest, 2020. I don’t think he’ll still be around then. He have a very long fall when Grant defenestrates him after a 2017 loss.

        • Leftie 9.4.1.1

          I know she was low in polling, like I said she was polling at 2%.

          BTW, its not a precedent, and Labour, with its opposition partners have every chance to throw the Nats out at the next election.

    • Stuart Munro 9.5

      It’s not about weakness or strength – Key is a media whore (it seems to be a family trait). Little is his own man, which means he doesn’t have to lie as often.

      • Colonial Viper 9.5.1

        Little is his own man

        Then why is he such a fan of free trade and free trade deals, the cornerstone of the neoliberal global economic system?

        • Stuart Munro 9.5.1.1

          I don’t think ‘fan’ is the term I’d use. Think of it in terms of continuity – the kind of dramatic changes we might prefer, reported dishonestly in the press as they would be, would be used to sabotage Labour’s run.

          Key profits from wrecking things, which is why most of Ireland would cheerfully stab him. Little will try to steer the ship of state off the rocks – but the steering is weak and she has a lot of way on her.

          Having got rid of the wreckers and achieved some modest success he will be in a position to entertain a more significant change of course. If we want the traitors punished (and I do), look not to Labour – that’s something we’ll have to organise for ourselves.

          • Colonial Viper 9.5.1.1.1

            So, Little is “his own man” yet heavily constrained in politics, policy and economics in every direction.

            As for the “ship of state” I can’t say that I am 100% concerned for whether or not this so-called ship is “on the rocks” since no one seems to have the courage to go anywhere worthwhile or different with the vessel anyway.

            • Leftie 9.5.1.1.1.1

              I dunno, do you miss the point of what people are saying on purpose Colonial Viper? I thought Stuart Munro explained it really well.

              • Colonial Viper

                And I spoke to his points.

              • Stuart Munro

                Thanks Leftie, but CV & I seem to be able to disagree without rancour – except maybe about Russia 😉

                When it comes to the Labour party I’m reminded of a wall plaque they used to give to newlyweds – “By accepting you as you are I am not altogether abandoning hope of your improving.”

                I choose to find the influence of the Greens and NZF a salutory balance – in their absence I might be more critical of Labour myself.

                But I’d like to see Labour make room for Hone – in the last three decades all the Labour ‘mavericks’ have been on the right, and that’s been a disaster for NZ people.

            • Stuart Munro 9.5.1.1.1.2

              I understand your frustration, but he remains significantly better than an actual neoliberal sock puppet like Key.

              You might not like the result if the ‘ship’ hits the rocks and the public let the dogs out on corrupt MPs – and this government has no other kind.

              The example would be salutory but the long term consequences are poor for democracy, and might well involve a series of military dictators. They are typically a 1 on the scale of desirable rulers, corrupt demagogues like Key rate a 2.

          • Leftie 9.5.1.1.2

            +1’s on both of your comments Stuart Munro.

  10. DoublePlusGood 10

    It’s been quite clear for some time that New Zealanders as a whole just love incompetent leadership that is sending the country down the tubes, and that there are no signs that this will change in the short to medium term. This poll is consistent with that, regardless of whether it has national at 48 or 45.

    • BM 10.1

      Just goes to show how poorly the voter rates Labour.

      • billmurray 10.1.1

        BM, yes but “why” is the $64000 question that the leadership of this once great political party must ask itself, I am afraid that the “head in the sand” of the leadership is incapable of serious analysis.
        I propose this to the LP for serious consideration:
        that the party either endorse the TPPA or say they not support the TPPA and if elected will walk away from the TPPA.

        At the moment they say they do not support the TPPA but if elected they will retain the TPPA??????????????.

        That is a clear and unadulterated load of bullshit and most New Zealanders and a lot of Labour party members say so.

        • BM 10.1.1.1

          Labour has lost it’s connection with evey day NZ, people/voters no longer relate to them, that’s their number one issue.

          I put that down to the party being fixated on what the couple of thousand party members want and not the half a million people + who voted for them.

          Personally I don’t think it’s fixable, it’s part of the DNA now.

          • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1.1

            I put that down to the party being fixated on what the couple of thousand party members want and not the half a million people + who voted for them.

            Cluetip – they don’t actually give a flying fuck what the several thousand person general membership want. This is because the people at the top of Labour think they know better than everyone else. There’s probably only 100-200 people in the Labour Party hierarchy with any real say at all. Half of them are MPs or paid staffers.

      • ropata 10.1.2

        I think the stats show that the Nat PR machine is still working pretty well despite a few hiccups lately. The ignorant, the greedy, the white collar professional class, and the corrupt old boys network are currently in agreement with the plan to turn Auckland into a suburb of Beijing and the rest of NZ into a shit encrusted dairy farm

        • Whateva next? 10.1.2.1

          Bang on Ropata

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.2

          Uh, it’s not that the NATs are so clever and competent, it’s that Labour consistently refuses to deliver what the people are looking for: a serious, real political economic alternative.

          • ropata 10.1.2.2.1

            I guess you missed all the announcements about the Lab/Green agreement then… next you will be blaming Labour for National’s filthy scandals and war on the poor.

            Labour/Green are clearly a far better team for NZ than the awful rabble on the government benches, the only thing that is working for the Nats is fear and greed and FJK’s amazing powers of bullshit

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.2.1.1

              I guess you missed all the announcements about the Lab/Green agreement then… next you will be blaming Labour for National’s filthy scandals and war on the poor.

              The public doesn’t give a shit about clever little Thorndon Bubble deals.

              The public wants to see strong political economic alternatives which step clear and away from longstanding neoliberal market based dogma.

              • Like trump you mean, you want us to have a trump?

                • Colonial Viper

                  If Labour are unwilling to put up a Corbyn or a Sanders, that’s who we are going to get eventually.

                  • The lost sheep

                    Have to admit Corbyn has made a major impact for UK Labour. Going somewhere fast. At this rate of drop he’ll beat Andrew Little to the 20% mark!

                    Labour’s current opinion poll ratings are the worst the party has ever experienced in opposition, one year on from choosing a new leader.On the first anniversary of Jeremy Corbyn’s election, Labour is trailing the Conservatives by an average of 11 points.Not since modern polling techniques began in the 1950s has the party suffered such a deficit 12 months on from a leadership contest.
                    Worst Ever Poll

                    • Enough is Enough

                      Don’t believe the polls. Just ask people in the street

                    • The lost sheep

                      Even better. Don’t bother asking anyone. If your head is deeply enough buried in the sand you won’t have to see the writing on the wall.

                  • Leftie

                    We already have a Trump, he’s called John key.

                    • Enough is Enough

                      I think you mean Winston Peters

                      Anti trade, anti immigration populist policies is the basis of both Trump and NZ First

                    • Leftie

                      No, I mean warmongering liar and cheat and tax evader John key.

                    • Enough is Enough

                      yeah I think you will find Winston’s policies almost align directly with Trumps.

                      Key is pro TPP. The first thing Trump will do is kill TPP and renegotiate all trade agreements.

                      Key and Trump are very different.

                      Trump is pro worker

                    • Leftie

                      When push comes to shove, Trump will be a yes man to corporate/Wallstreet like John key is.

                      Trump is pro worker? Really? Only if they are cheap foreign labour from Europe and Mexico. Trump doesn’t hire Americans.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      All you are saying is that the Deep State is the consistent shadow government behind the official government, and that it actually runs the USA, and who can disagree with you there.

            • Enough is Enough 10.1.2.2.1.2

              Ropata

              You are fucking deluded if you think an MOU is going to impress anyone other than insiders who already love them.

              Joint policies that actually appeal to people who don’t normally vote Labour or Green is the only way to win the election. Where are those joint policies?

              • Lanthanide

                1. The MOU allows for those joint policies to be developed and presented to the public. That’s the whole point of it. Without the MOU, you just get what happened at the 2011 and 2014 elections.

                2. The MOU has resulted in the media talking more about the opposition as a bloc, instead of obsessively reporting on Labour vs National. Horse-race reporting is stupid in an MMP environment, so at least the media are doing less of it now.

                • Colonial Viper

                  The MOU allows for those joint policies to be developed and presented to the public.

                  So where the hell are they? If they wanted the public to realise this was the case, the first such policy should have been jointly released shortly after the MOU announcement, and under the banner of the MOU, within a few weeks.

                  • Lanthanide

                    Well evidently they haven’t done that, and it’s too late to do it “within a few weeks” now.

                    In the 2011 and 2014 elections they didn’t announce much in the way of policy until election year itself. There were a few bits and pieces before then.

                    Whether that is a good strategy or not, I don’t know. Presumably they are doing the same again this time.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Performance track record in both 2014 and 2011 suggests that a change of strategy might be wise.

                    • Lanthanide

                      They already have changed strategy, by having a MOU. Now they can have coordinated policy announcements.

                      2014 was particularly notable for how publicly useless they were on coordinating, with the Greens calling for Labour’s financial plans to be independently audited – I honestly have no idea why they thought that was a good move, it played perfectly into National’s election add with the rowing boat going in opposite directions.

            • Chuck 10.1.2.2.1.3

              “I guess you missed all the announcements about the Lab/Green agreement then”

              This is the first Colmar Brunton poll since that announcement. As NZF gained the most from this poll, and Labour hit the hardest, its clear that centre – left Labour supporters are jumping ship to NZF, rather than be taken further left as the Lab/Gr party dictates.

              The Lab/Gr party experiment will be a choke around Labours neck in 2017. NZF will be the winner and of course National.

        • BM 10.1.2.3

          The red peril is coming for you ropata.
          Better develop a taste for rice and pig testicles or else you’ll be shit out of luck there, bud.

          • ropata 10.1.2.3.1

            NZ was a sovereign nation last time I looked, prefer to keep it that way thanks. Please stop whoring for your foreign overlords, bullshit master.

          • ropata 10.1.2.3.2

            Also it is not the colour of the peril that I’m concerned about, red, yellow, or heliotrope. It’s the fact that thousands of kiwis are being physically and economically displaced in the name of high property prices and low wages. It’s traditionally called class war

        • Red 10.1.2.4

          You keep believing that silly rhetoric ropata, it has nothing to do with national, national have been appalling to inert at best of late, labour has a looser tag and people don’t want to associate with losers, this is coupled with MPs as charismatic as my gold fish but less vision, the looser image is now ingrained and will be difficult if not impossible to turn around, the party has run it course, it should break up into its factions and go thier own way

          • In Vino 10.1.2.4.1

            The only reason many people feel that way is because they have fallen through the cracks of a deliberately under-resourced education system (how many MPs send their own kids to a state school?) and then they have been under-informed by right-wing bread and circuses clickbait mainstream media.

            It is called dumbing down. Brave New World.

          • ropata 10.1.2.4.2

            The poll results have nothing to do with National? 🙄

            Admit there is anti Labour sentiment out there but you are just mouthing empty whaleoil slogans if you blame Labour for everything. Read Dirty Politics

            • Red 10.1.2.4.2.1

              I am not blaming labour for anything, its you who are trying to excuse labour from their appalling polling and position after many years in opposition

              • ropata

                maybe because they are not in government and they don’t have the firepower of the PR machine and the apparatus of state and the control of the media that the Nat Party enjoys. FFS mate, Labour have been pushing shit uphill for years while the Nats have no compunction about publishing complete lies like the Donghua Liu scandal

        • Anne 10.1.2.5

          The ignorant, the greedy, the white collar professional class, and the corrupt old boys network are currently in agreement with the plan to turn Auckland into a suburb of Beijing and the rest of NZ into a shit encrusted dairy farm.

          Think also about the “the feel good factor.” The All Blacks are on a winning streak and everybody in Auckland is feeling rich because their houses are worth a $1million. They see themselves as members of the Kiwi upper classs and since many of them can’t see past the end of their noses, they are blissfully unaware it is all going to come crashing around them in the not too distant future. Then and only then will they start screaming for a Labour led govt. to get them out of the shit.

          If I was Labour I would tell them to get stuffed… we’re withdrawing from the next election and you can sink in a festering pool of your own making. 👿

          • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.5.1

            Median income in this country is about $30K.

            Median full time working income waged/salaried in this country is about $48K.

            Labour could reach these people if it wanted to, instead of always trying to appeal to the $80K-$120K plus crowd.

            • ropata 10.1.2.5.1.1

              How? This is the unreachable disconnected disaffected working majority. They have given up. Governments have betrayed them for 40 years

              • Nic the NZer

                There goes your first hint, stop betraying people. For example don’t say your against the TPPA and then, when in a position to do something about it say oh well we are in now and have no leverage to change it. Why would I make a comment about something the PLP has not done yet? Because its transparent they don’t fool anybody what they are going to do.

              • Colonial Viper

                How? This is the unreachable disconnected disaffected working majority.

                Unreachable? You gotta be kidding. The only reason the Thorndon Bubble types think this demographic is unreachable is because the Thorndon Bubble are starting from the wrong place, stretching in the wrong direction, and totally unwilling to change both of those things.

                So yeah, unreachable.

          • Red 10.1.2.5.2

            A bit bitter there Anne, the fact is most people don’t want government leading them at all, unless you are a nanny state type

            • Anne 10.1.2.5.2.1

              Them’s the facts whether you like it or not Red. Half the population at the least base their judgement on the way they are feeling even though it doesn’t have anything to do with the way the country is being run. At the moment morale is high because the ABs are on a winning streak. Add to that, the feel good factor because their house values are rising fast and that’s good news for them – or so they think. This is the reason why:

              1) John Key goes to inordinate lengths to associate himself with the ABs. The moment the ABs start losing their games you won’t see him for dust.

              2) He refuses to take the only steps that will make a difference by building lots of affordable and state houses because his greedy, shallow supporters (and that is exactly what they are whether people like to hear it or not) want the prices to stay high.

              Sounds to me like you may fit in to category 2 – a greedy, shallow Nat supporter?

            • Halfcrown 10.1.2.5.2.2

              I don’t think Anne is bitter, in fact, she is just pointing out the facts.
              I agree with you, people don’t like the nanny state (another term used by the right when their sense of entitlement is being threatened) However, any decent person would like to see rules in place so one sector of society does not exploit or disadvantage others.
              Can you image the chaos on the roads if we applied some of the “Neo-Liberal” principles to driving without any road rules, rules put in place so we can all use the roads without killing one another? After all, driving is subject to “the nanny state” not allowed to do certain speeds in certain districts, driving on only one side of the road etc.

              • Red

                Many Studies have shown that traffic often self calibrates often better with out rules, just drive in Asia, likewise rules often distort system and make them more complex. FKed if I know how bees operate without rules or someone telling them what to do, nature and biological system are full of these examples

                • ropata

                  yeah lets deregulate everything, because it works so awesomely for bees

                • Halfcrown

                  ” just drive in Asia”

                  I have mate and you are talking crap. They have road rules especially in Singapore and you will find in countries with large populations road courtesy is a must otherwise, it will be murder every 500 metres. If you study the mayhem you will observe a definite pattern of not “offending”
                  But I am afraid I’ve got to agree with you if you applied that to Auckland. I am convinced the traffic would flow 200% better if they did away with two-thirds of those stupid traffic lights Auckland seems to be so fond of. But we still need rules to deter the clown who will drive recklessly. The same way as a society, we need controls to curb the excesses of some sectors of society.

                  “FKed if I know how bees operate without rules or someone telling them what to do, nature and biological system are full of these examples”

                  You mentioned Bees for some unknown reason. I have a Bee Hive, I don’t know how they operate but I can tell you this, the little darlings do look out for one another something us, as a so-called intelligent species who is supposed to be above the beasts of the jungle should be doing for the unfortunates. They work extremely hard for the wellbeing of the hive (society). But I forgot in the Neo paradise according to Thatcher “there is no such thing as society”. It is survival of the fittest, the law of the jungle. it is me first, work as an individual, stuff every other fucker. If they fall by the wayside, fucking tough it is their fault don’t expect me to give you a hand up. Learn to get up and survive.
                  As a so called intelligent species, we have got to start changing our thinking, otherwise, if we continue with this fuck you Jack I am alright and live by the rules of the Jungle survival of the fittest etc mankind will not survive.

  11. Takere 11

    Here’s one that’s a little bit more sensible.
    Pundit Poll of Polls
    % Change Seats
    National 48.0 +0.8 58
    Labour 29.2 -1.9 36
    Greens 12.0 +0.3 15
    NZ First 6.6 -0.5 8
    Maori Party 2.3 +1.0 1
    Act 0.6 +0.1 1
    Con 0.3 -0.3 0
    United Future – – 1
    The Polity / Pundit Poll of Polls is updated as new polls are released, incorporating the One News/Colmar Brunton, TV3/Reid, NZ Herald/Digipoll, Fairfax/Ipsos, and Roy Morgan polls. Change is compared to 21 Sep 2015

  12. stigie 12

    How can you only have 3 people in the Labour caucus vote for Andrew Little to make him leader and have a unified caucus. just doesn’t make sense, Shearer was more popular with his people and people on the right.

    • Lanthanide 12.1

      Shearer was a bumbling ditherer.

      • Colonial Viper 12.1.1

        i.e. he was a novice back bench MP

        • Lanthanide 12.1.1.1

          Yes, but even with his professional background, he should have done a much better job than he did.

          Hooton et al talked him up as a leader because they were honestly impressed by him. Obviously he’s good at cocktail chat and not much else.

          It’s a pity Cunliffe shackled himself to Nannia and ran a “double ticket”. I’m not sure he could have won, but I think that move cost him support. I think 2014 could have gone a lot differently if he’d had more time in the role.

    • Leftie 12.2

      Well that’s not true, and it shows Andrew Little is a strong leader to have unified Labour’s caucus. Shearer? no thanks, he belongs in the National party.

  13. Whateva next? 13

    He had his chance and needs to focus on the greater good, as Andrew has managed to do well.
    This post has been hijacked by a few people who have too much money and self interest to see beyond the end of their own noses.

    • BM 13.1

      This post reeks of antisemitism, so typical of the left.

      • ropata 13.1.1

        ok, nice troll, ya got me

        but i didn’t see our Pinocchio PM in the thread?

      • Halfcrown 13.1.2

        “This post reeks of antisemitism, so typical of the left.”

        I can’t see that in that comment, and why so typical of the left? I think you must be the one with the hang-ups to interpret that remark as such.

    • James 13.2

      And how would you know if people have too much money ?

      An assumption from your own bias. You are rather bitter today.

      • Whateva next? 13.2.1

        Oh it’s not just today James, and I will remain bitter until I see the light of humanity shining at the end of this long dark tunnel John Key has lead us into, thanks for asking

  14. upnorth 14

    Rogue or Rouge

    Either way labour has massive problem. Add poll plus leadership poll is the real issue 10% for Andrew. Let’s get serious here. Andrew little hasome a track record on tanking. Change the leader

  15. James 15

    The heralds take : its good news for labour : http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11708315

    Nah just kidding they think it’s terrible as well.

  16. RedLogix 16

    Here’s my take. Until Labour ( or the Greens) overtake National and start polling as the largest party > 40% …. John Key will remain President for Life.

    The establishment in this country will tolerate no governing arrangement that does NOT include the party with the most seats.

  17. fisiani 17

    With the booming economy and near full employment and wage growth well ahead of inflation and the massive and record housing boom over the next twelve months it would not be unreasonable for National to poll an extra 1% and score 49%. They would then go with ACT, UF and the MP and probably even offer a place in Government to NZF to accustom NZF MP’s to being in Government for the first ever time. There is no way that Winston will stand in 2020 and actually he may not even be around late 2017 given his deteriorating health,(thus his plea for an early election) His likely successors Ron Mark or Shane Jones would side with National in a heartbeat. If Labour remain in the polling doldrums for the rest of 2016 then watch out for BBQ’s at Grant Robertson’s place over summer.

    • Enough is Enough 17.1

      LOL

      Dream on comical Ali. Do not think a poll result from a corrupt corporate represents the majority of New Zealanders who are in struggle street, with no prospects for a decent job or even a home.

      • fisiani 17.1.1

        Are you genuinely claiming that over 50% of the population are struggling, unemployed and homeless? Maths is obviously not your strongest subject. Take off your blinkers and welcome to the better brighter future. The one that is attracting thousands of Kiwis home to vote National.

        • Leftie 17.1.1.1

          You do not reside in NZ let alone this planet do you Fisiani?

        • Enough is Enough 17.1.1.2

          In New Zealand you can’t walk down Queen Street or Lambton Quay (I don’t know if Chch has a city centre thanks to National) without having to walk over homeless kiwis including children.

          It is like a Dickens novel and something New Zealand will no longer tolerate. Key’s war on the poor is going to cost him more than just his job

          • fisiani 17.1.1.2.1

            So the Christchurch earthquake was the fault of National — that takes the prize.

            • Enough is Enough 17.1.1.2.1.1

              when the fuck was the earthquake?

              If was anytime in the past 5 years then yes probably no fault of the government.

              Otherwise don’t you think the rebuild might be a wee bit slow. Like seriously, no party colours on. How long should it take?

              • Leftie

                +1’s on your comments Enough is Enough.

              • fisiani

                80% of the buildings in the CBD of Christchurch have had to come down. Building owners are still legally thwarted from rebuilding (ever seen the Cathedral?) The reconstruction of Christchurch is ahead of schedule despite the local NIMBYS. You struggle with maths and engineering.

                • Lanthanide

                  You know that parliament is sovereign, right? If they wanted to, the cathedral situation could have been resolved 3 years ago.

                  The reconstruction is behind schedule – of the anchor projects, only the children’s playground is completed. The sports complex was supposed to be completed this year, instead construction will start next year. The convention centre is now scaled back and being built entirely by the government. The stadium (which will never be built in its planned form) was delayed by 5 years to 2020.

                  • Pat

                    not to mention the 7500 (min) re repairs of the gov contractor residential programme AND the continuing handing over of overcap claims by EQC 6 years on…yes, definitely ahead of schedule

    • Steve 17.2

      Jam tomorrow.

  18. ankerawshark 18

    What was the number of undecided in this poll???

    Just out of interest.

  19. ankerawshark 19

    Fisi @ 16.1.1.

    I guess for me an increasing number of people living in the cars (the working poor) and renting garages in Auckland defies what you are saying about a brighter future. I think it is around 44,000 homeless now……………………this is unacceptable and National have enabled it. Stood back with their hands off the wheel. Then attempted to minimize it (“not a crisis, a challenge”). It is puzzling for me that 48% of people who were polled support them. This is not the NZ I grew up in that enabled me to have a good start in life.

    Read the story about the young girl living in a car who just missed out on a scholarship to Cuthburt College who sleeps in a car with her family. Then come back and tell me its a brighter future. Only a brighter future for those who are lucky and choose to look the other way.

    • fisiani 19.1

      For goodness sake why quote a discredited homeless figure of 41, 42, now 44,000 according to you (did you just make up the number?) which has been shown to actually be approx 1,500. Any number of homeless is of course unacceptable and will not be accepted but given the current housing boom of 10 houses a day there should be enough housing for everyone in less than year.

      • Leftie 19.1.1

        Shit, are you for real Fisiani???

        • Paul 19.1.1.1

          sociopath
          noun
          noun: sociopath; plural noun: sociopaths
          a person with a personality disorder manifesting itself in extreme antisocial attitudes and behaviour

        • Chuck 19.1.1.2

          Its you Leftie that has been taken in by the 44,000 “homeless people number”. Look up how they obtained that number, its smoke and mirrors and does not reflect what most of the public relates to being homeless. Most people have had to live with relatives or in temp accommodation at some point in there life’s…they then see this BS and turn off.

          The real number is closer to what fisiani says…which we can all agree on is still too many.

      • ankerawshark 19.1.2

        I think you are missing the point Fisiani. We can argue over the numbers if you want, but we both know it isn’t a brighter future for those people and Homelessness has got worse under Nats watch and they are spinning about it.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 19.2

      The goal of the Hollow Men was ever clear – parasitise NZ, sucking public assets and services dry, leaving a heavily indebted HUSK. Our society is now more out of kilter, more unequal than it has ever been, at least in my memory. A pernicious combination of fear and greed keeps this manipulative government on top – mission accomplished.

  20. Paul 20

    Did the poll ring landlines or mobiles?
    Or both?

    • risildowgtn 20.1

      Remmers darling remmers

    • Phil 20.2

      Did the poll ring landlines or mobiles?
      Or both?

      As far as I’m aware, NZ pollsters are still landline-only. It’s a challenge the polling industry needs to grapple with, but it’s certainly not a large enough challenge to discredit results (over and above the existing challenges of polling).

      If you look internationally (e.g. the current US presidential race) there’s not a great deal of evidence Landline+Mobile polls are giving materially different results to their landline-only counterparts. I think this derives from two main factors:

      1) The move away from landlines is pretty broad-based across the entire community. It’s not only young people, or only urban people, or only rich people, getting rid of them. So, the leftover pool of landline-only voters doesn’t look especially demographically different than before.

      2) Even if #1 doesn’t hold, is a mobile-only voter ‘different enough’ from a landline-voter that the lack of landline is an explanatory variable in their political preferences? What I mean is, when a polling firm weights their results for demographic factors, is it necessary to include ‘has a landline?’, or can we get a good enough picture with, say: age, sex, income, and ethnicity?

  21. save nz 21

    This is probably a bogus poll. But in my view focusing on housing is not getting votes. Everyone knows nothing good is going to happen there for most people, you can’t correct years of flusterfuck in a sound byte and Greens/Hickey/Gen Zero/Eaqub talking about crashing the market is not actually helping Labour or actually getting a change of government that may try to tackle property. Housing is a crucial issue, but polarising. Whatever any political group does is going to alienate other groups. Homeowners are a crucial polling group – probably one of the biggest blocks of voters that bother to vote. Supporting the unitary plan was a mistake – they should have stood back and let National take all the flack.

    Lab/Green should focus on for votes is TPPA. Most lefties, centrists and righties are also against it. We all know our jobs and economic future is gone once that clusterfuck of an agreement gets in.

    Getting rid of all the 166,000 temporary working visas might help and doing something about the rivers and water quality without alienating the farmers and exporters. (It can be done!). Immigration is a big issue – again it is not clear where Labour stand on it. National are calling Kiwis druged out lazy bludgers so we need 250,000 slave temporary workers bought in, surely Labour and Greens can manage something credible to combat this.

    Again immigration is a big issue that Labour seem to be skirting about. Yes many Kiwis are ex immigrants and sympathetic to those issues BUT National dangerous agenda to push as many bodies as they can into NZ and straining services and jobs is politically motivated not for some lovely fluffy diversity.

    Labour should pick 4 big issues to focus on. TPP and controlling our own destiny, , Jobs with a focus on immigration levels, health/education and privatisation/tenants in our own country.

    Greens could focus on TPP, the environment and climate change and social justice.

    I just think after 3 lost elections that the opposition could get a bit more strategic about what voters want, or actually what voters want to hear.

    • Nic the NZer 21.1

      The cultural Labour party believes acknowledging and behaving like you are in a country with borders is basically racist. They would rather expect politicians to carefully tip-toe around immigration issues and regularly signal that they are anti-racist rhetorically (while ignoring the issue as much as practical).

      • save nz 21.1.1

        I agree Nic the NZer. That is why the right is winning around the world. The left try to ignore globalism or spin some fluffy story about how adding in 200,000 extra people has no impact on jobs or housing or welfare services like health and schools. They then start going on about diversity and attending every diverse event they can, while ignoring attending the local protest marches for the fight against democracy and TPPA. Do they look like they are in touch with the people and on their side and worthy of their vote or do they look like they are part of the problem?

  22. john 22

    From the title of this post:
    National……..48%
    Lab/Green….39%

    So…the once mighty Labour party, have given up on being any kind of relevant force in their own right??!!

      • Colonial Viper 22.1.1

        They’ve engineered their own demise over the last decade or two, by failing to adapt to MMP, by insisting on cosying up to the interests of the $80K pa to $120K pa plus income set (“middle NZ” when middle NZ is actually on $30K pa), and by failing to offer any political economic alternatives to the Washington Consensus.

        • john 22.1.1.1

          What twaddle, Clarke only stayed in power in 2005 BECAUSE of MMP not in spite of it, she also bragged about it.
          Also, coincidentally, 2005 was the LAST time (almost) that labour actually lead National in the polls.

          • Colonial Viper 22.1.1.1.1

            john, please explain how the 2005 result you talk about demonstrates that Labour has successfully adapted to MMP like National has.

            From my perspective, Labour prefers to eliminate competition on the left side of the political spectrum, and today is very short of natural MMP partners.

            • john 22.1.1.1.1.1

              Eliminate competition???
              Are you reading your own statement???
              Lab/grn….39%
              The labour/Green joint venture???
              Or do you know something we don’t? Perhaps that labour will knife the greens in the back, at their earliest convenience?

              • Colonial Viper

                I’m sorry, but I cannot understand any point you are trying to make.

                Can you please communicate in actual sentences.

          • lprent 22.1.1.1.2

            Fascinating comment mainly for what it reveals about your dumb stupidity.

            So after more than 20 years since MMP came in and after 3 referendums on its introduction and retention, you clearly haven’t reconciled yourself to the fact that comparing just two parties polling is about as useful as you looking at your dick size and trying to say tat is the seat of intellectual power (which is what I read from your misogynist subtext).

            Then you have the sublime claim to being a stupid dickhead by somehow claiming that Helen Clark was wrong for working within the political world as voters have made it rather than some fantasy that you have been in for the last 20 odd years. Why because two party comparisons in a MMP world are about as useless as those two knobs on your chest (which appear to have more than sufficient capacity for your apparent intelligence).

            There is a reason why voters haven’t given ANY political party a majority of votes cast since 1993 or a direct majority of MPs in parliament. Voters force coalitions. It simply doesn’t matter in a MMP environment which political party is larger. It only matters who can form a coalition.

            Now I realize this difficult concept is hard for a political idiot like you to understand. But as National suck away votes from their potential coalition parties they actually make it harder to form a government.

            Perhaps in another 20 years, you’ll have accepted the basic politics of MMP. But I don’t hold out much hope.

            • john 22.1.1.1.2.1

              So because helen clarke ruined NZ and put us into a recession 1 year BEFORE the GFC, tried to introduce draconian anti freedom of speech laws…that somehow makes me a misogynist??? Best you understand what the word means and it has NOTHING to do with disagreeing with someone or believing that the mess they made was entirely theirs!!!
              As for National drawing votes from potential partners…well it would seem that you have you political colours reversed it is Lab/Grns who are steeling, or attempting to steel each others votes and in the mean time Winnie is laughing at you while he collects the voters you are alienating with this ridiculous political ploy.

              • Lanthanide

                Yeah, Helen Clark and her 9 straights years of surplusses, and getting net debt down to a 0 figure, sure ruined NZ.

                I recall Bill English saying the GFC was the “rainy day the government has saved for”. The government he was referring to of course, was Helen’s.

                Had Don Brash won the 2005 election with his massive tax cut bribe, we would have been screwed going into the GFC, and then doubly screwed with the CHCH earthquakes.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Yeah, Helen Clark and her 9 straights years of surplusses, and getting net debt down to a 0 figure, sure ruined NZ.

                  Yes it did.

                  As I have explained before, Cullen effectively swapped a high public debt level for a high private debt level.

                  He made the Crown’s books look great while watching households and farms all around the country deteriorate into massive levels of debt.

                  I recall Bill English saying the GFC was the “rainy day the government has saved for”. The government he was referring to of course, was Helen’s.

                  Always good for Labour to scrimp and save money off the working class, so that when National is in power, they can splash it back out on the top 10%.

                  • Lanthanide

                    “Always good for Labour to scrimp and save money off the working class, so that when National is in power, they can splash it back out on the top 10%.”

                    Yip, Labour missed a trick, they should have transferred the power SOEs into the superannuation fund, instead of giving them a straight $1B cash. The dividends from the power companies would go to the fund, and they could then top up the extra cash.

                    Would have made it much more politically difficult for National to sell them off.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Now that’s the kind of clever thinking the Left should have been using

                    • Lanthanide

                      It’s obvious in hindsight.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      What was obvious all along is that if you build up massively profitably SOEs which bring in huge dividends, the NATs are going to privatise them ASAP and give them away to their rich mates.

                      Labour has no idea how to Tory proof our country. National knows exactly how to Labour proof our country.

              • 1) Stealing has an “a” in it. “Steeling” would be to render something inflexible or unyielding, or perhaps to coat it in metal. 😉

                2) Labour didn’t make a mess. Everyone at the time agreed that it was an issue with the global economy more than the local one, even the Nats. That’s not to say there weren’t some long-term issues on the horizon (like the looming housing problems, electricity prices, and the lack of a CGT) that Labour hadn’t needed to deal with yet. But if a competent government had been at the helm afterwards, it wouldn’t have been a problem.

                3) Have a look at the two sides of Parliament for a moment. On one hand, you have the National Party, which has aaaalmost all of the right wing of parliament, with a measly 4 seats set aside for its coalition partners.
                On the other hand, you have the opposition, with two medium-sized parties there representing a diversity of opinion, and with a notable exception for New Zealand First, a fair bit of talent. National polls “well” compared to Labour because its eaten up all of the party vote support for its allies. In reality, it’s polling terribly for a party with no allied party vote to speak of. It needs to be clearing 49% in almost every poll, and that if it can assume a victory in at least Epsom and Ohariu for its micro-party allies, as it doesn’t look like there will be a big boon to National from the failed Conservative Party vote being redistributed to them this time.

    • fisiani 22.2

      The headline writer could hardly write National 48% Labour 26% without crying. Be kind. The disastrous Green/Labour agreement likely means that by election time Labour will have lost another 6% to the Greens. Labour 20% Greens 19% means no Labour list mp’s. I agree with the author somewhat. Winston will not have a bar of Labour if they cannot get a mandate in their own right of at least 40%

      • Colonial Viper 22.2.1

        IMO Greens have almost zero percent chance of getting more than 14% in the election. Most likely result is between 10% and 13%

        • While I wouldn’t go quite as far as CV, I have to say if there were any realistic chance of a 19% result the Greens would be pretty happy with that even if Labour didn’t do well enough to change the government.

          I expect the current cautiously optimistic goal for the election is to shoot for 15-16%, and CV may be right that the Greens only manage 10-13% if things don’t go that well. But I seriously doubt we would see both a 20% Labour vote and a 10% Green vote unless something disastrous happens for the opposition before polling day.

          • Lanthanide 22.2.1.1.1

            I just don’t see the Greens breaking 13%, not until they get into government and mainstream New Zealand learns that they aren’t electoral poison, but are actually pretty principled and (usually) have serious policy chops.

          • Colonial Viper 22.2.1.1.2

            Matthew, for several years now the Greens have undertaken a strategy to mainstream themselves into the economic orthodoxy as the strategy to getting significantly more votes.

            IMO that strategy was always going to be, and is proving to be, a failure.

            • Lanthanide 22.2.1.1.2.1

              I don’t think it’s been a failure, but I don’t think it can take them any further than it has.

            • Matthew Whitehead 22.2.1.1.2.2

              I do disagree with you. 😉

              The strategy hasn’t been a failure. It’s never lost ground. The question is whether it can yet succeed like people want to.

    • Leftie 22.3

      It’s MMP John. The MoU between Labour and the Greens is forcing msm to report in MMP terms and not FPP. National don’t govern alone, they have support partners, but the way the media like to falsely frame it, its like the Nats stand alone, when they don’t.

    • Olwyn 23.1

      Thanks Takere for putting that up. I am sure the 13% undecided would have rated a mention had the numbers not favoured National at face value. Yes, I would like to see Labour show a bit more grunt and direction, but at the same time the polls are framed in such a way as to fuel the tiresome narrative that National lives by – confidence is UP – the economy is looking GREAT – the big lip-gloss smile for the winners and the smirk for the losers. What Labour needs to take from it is not so much the result, but the pressing need to break through this kind of framing.

      • john 23.1.1

        and yet:
        Confidence is UP due almost entirely because the economy is out stripping both expectations and international comparisons.

      • Takere 23.1.2

        Colmar B is a Survey masquerading as a “Poll?”
        Here’s the latest UMR “Poll” results September 2016.

        Nat 40%
        Lab 31%
        Greens 14%
        NZF 11%

        ACT/MP/United/Con don’t count as there wasn’t a question asking for parasitic partys!

        • Colonial Viper 23.1.2.1

          On this basis, LAB/GR are a full 5% higher than National (not nine points behind), and therefore NZ First would have no issues whatsoever going with them for a total of 56% of the vote. A strong government with 68 seats or more in Parliament.

          In other words, according to the UMR Labour is right on track for a clear victory over National in 2017.

          These numbers also make it clear why Labour would and should have no interest in working with the Maori Party as they are irrelevant in the maths.

          • Takere 23.1.2.1.1

            Well CV you’d know more about the “polls” than I do. But, balance is all I’m looking for with Right Wing pollster Company’s versus Lefties. Allowing for this should mitigate the “perceived” bias? If both sets of genuine polls were released at the same time. A poll should have only one question put to the individual …. If there is an election held tomorrow/today. Which party would you vote for?

            • Matthew Whitehead 23.1.2.1.1.1

              I somewhat disagree. It’s also relevant to know if the Maori Party, Mana Party, United Future and Act have changes at their respective electorates, not that anyone ever tries to poll that.

              • Takere

                The Maori Party are no longer? Now,Tainui Inc. They’ve lost there national appeal. Limited themselves to Waikato and some that don’t live there. They’re dead in the underpants …. Tuku taking the piss. Those that identify as Tainui, 64,000 obviously do not all vote for the Maori Party. Dunne’s majority of 700 could disappear if Lab & Greens do a deal in Ohariu. Which leaves the Diarrhea Party, Act for the Nat’s to partner up with?? Who knows what will actually happen. The only poll that counts is the election on the day. Getting out the vote is what really matters ….who’s good at doing that?

                • It’s entirely possible the Māori Party are out, but I’ve learned not to be surprised when electorates don’t do what you expect because you usually need to be IN the electorate to understand them. There was a fair amount of initial assumption that Hone would hold onto TTT despite his deal with the Internet Party, for instance, and a lot of people thought Hide might not be a cert in Epsom given how odious he was. That’s without getting into New Zealand First’s interesting history with various electorate votes.

                  I think also that there’s a real value to an independent Māori voice in Parliament, even though they were absolute idiots to associate themselves so closely with National and didn’t gain enough to be worth blowing apart their own party. If they listen to their people and stop being so obsessed with always being inside the government, then that could help. But we’ll see.

                  Dunne has a ridiculous habit of hanging on to Ohariu. It’s been within striking distance of a Labour win a few times now but they’ve never pulled it off, so I’ll believe it when I see it. (Ironically, Labour would almost do better to pull their own candidate and have everyone vote for the Nat 😉 The ironies of a three-way race!)

                  But if Dunne loses Ohariu and the Māori Party lose their electorates… that is really bad for National.

                  • Takere

                    Hone’s playing smart. He’s just doing a bit of a reckie, dog whistle tour to MP voters who’re thinking of abandoning the MP now that they’ve been hijacked by Mr Underpants & Tainui Inc. It’ll implode at some stage once people realise all policy will be Tainui-centric and trickle up to fatten iwi balance sheets. 2014 they had 31,000ish voters. 10.000 of those were from other regions other than the Waikato/Hauraki. Nga Puhi aren’t gunnah vote for Tainui Inc & I’m sure many other iwi will see it that way too. Hone could come away with a sizable chunk of that 10,000? Nania will smoke her cousin Underpants’s candidate whoever it is? JT? Willie? Rawiri? Tau Henare? If anything, if Mana stood a good candidate like Greensil. It’ll hurt the MP-Tainui Inc party to Hone’s benefit & maybe a slight gain to Labour? Lets wait for the Tainui Inc implosion …..

                  • Phil

                    If they listen to their people and stop being so obsessed with always being inside the government, then that could help.

                    You appear to have forgotten the MP held Hui’s up and down the country before entering into an agreement with National. The overwhelming preference of their members was that it was much more important to be part of government and get whatever policy gains they could, than to be part of the opposition and get nothing.

                    • Interesting perspective given that they lost most of their seats after their first time around. It’s almost as if people thought they could pull it off but weren’t happy with them, so they doubled-down on it the second time after people weren’t willing to even go to their huis.

                      Just because you offer people the chance to come talk to you doesn’t mean you’re doing a good job of actually listening.

                    • Phil

                      … they lost most of their seats after their first time around.

                      *shrug*

                      Not particularly different to the experiences of ACT, UF, NZF, and the Alliance, after entering into a coalition with one of the two major parties. It’s almost as if there’s something larger and more fundamental going on that you’re choosing to ignore to make a particular argument. 😛

        • Olwyn 23.1.2.2

          I think it would be good for Labour to start releasing the results of their own polling here and perhaps also on facebook. It would provide an alternative to the MSM polls, and hopefully dent the cockiness with which those polls are trumpeted.

          • Lanthanide 23.1.2.2.1

            There’s no way the Labour party would release official information that is intended for a general audience here.

            • Olwyn 23.1.2.2.1.1

              OK – I meant that it should reach the public one way or another.

              • Anne

                Totally agree Olwyn. The media perception that… by releasing the UMR poll Labour is showing itself to be in a state of “desperation” and “disarray” is a load of poppycock. Frustration will have played a part for sure, but its high time Labour started to hit back hard over these MSM polls with their inbuilt bias.

                Commenter, Pat linked to a very good analysis of how that inbuilt bias actually works:

                http://www.kaaj.com/psych/abstract/pollsabstract.html

  23. Aaaand we’re talking about ridiculous horse race coverage instead of why the government’s housing policy is a failure. Who is actually suprised that we suddenly have a distraction pop up when National is in hot water?

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