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Colmar Brunton poll: Labour still way ahead

Written By: - Date published: 6:04 pm, September 22nd, 2020 - 90 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, national, new conservatives, nz first, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

Latest Colmar Brunton results are out and it is grim reading for National.  The results:

Labour – 48

National – 31

Act – 7

Greens – 6

NZ First – 2

New Conservatives – 2

90 comments on “Colmar Brunton poll: Labour still way ahead ”

  1. Ed 1

    The Greens at 6 is good news.

    Wonder whether National stops the Epsom deal…

  2. satty 2

    A Labour / Green government would be great 🙂

  3. observer 4

    Since Judith took over from Todd Muller, have there been any polls putting National above 35? Which, you might recall, is the resignation number … according to Judith Collins.

    Under Muller they were 38 – same Colmar Brunton poll.

    • Dennis Frank 4.1

      If you add the 7% of Nats (rats) who have jumped the sinking ship onto the ACT life-raft to National's 31% you get 38. So Judith could claim parity with Todd with a bit of a stretch.

      I'm intrigued by the continuing rise of ACT. I'm not aware of anyone providing an explanation in the media for this strategic initiative by rightists. It's as if they decided way back that they had to create a support partner for National, and their collaboration in achieving this is on track. The fact that they are damaging National isn't penetrating. Or maybe their betrayal is deliberate!

      • CoreyHumm 4.1.1

        Acts rise is due to both the collapse of national and partly nzf and also the culture wars, acts faux defenders of gun owners and faux guardians of free speech , especially the latter appeal to as many people as the greens and their woke pc ideology.

        Theres a lot of people who are voting act despite being poor and some even on welfare simply because they think Seymour is a good funny bloke who will stand up to the “snow flakes” and theres a lot of people who are terrified of having woke green MPs deciding what is and what isn’t hate speech because in a lot of people’s minds the geeens seem to find everything offensive.

  4. Pat 5

    not even a glimmer for NZFirst

  5. Chris T 6

    Seymour must be blowing his load over it

  6. Leighton 7

    The shocking run of rogue polls (which have coincided with JC taking over as leader) continues.

    On these results there will be an 8% wasted vote so 46% will be the threshold to govern alone. I dont think Labour have been below 46% since pre-Covid.

  7. ScottGN 8

    7% wasted vote. That must be worth another seat for Labour on its own plus there will be the overseas specials which usually deliver Labour and the Greens an extra seat.

    • McFlock 8.1

      Interesting – and possibly worrying – that the main parties dropped 6% total and the smaller parties only rose 3%.

      Even with rounding, that means the fringe parties rose a few percent – and most of the fringe parties this year are a bit of a worry. Less McGillicuddy Serious, more altright and tinfoil hats.

  8. ScottGN 9

    I stuck it all into the Sainte-Laguë calculator and got the following seat count:

    ACT 9

    Labour 63

    Greens 8

    National 40

    Of course it all changes if any of the minors wins a seat.

  9. observer 10

    The numbers are bad but Collins not fronting is almost worse. Opposition leaders never do that, even when the polls are dire.

    Like everything else predicted by the cheerleaders, it turns out Collins' toughness is vastly over-rated (see also: will crush Ardern in Parliament, will shore up Nat base at ACT's expense, etc).

    She has been found out.

  10. Climaction 11

    2 points right for each of the parties and this election is wide open. Labour need to offer us more than promises. they need to offer the electorate responsibility for what they promise in order for us to believe and vote for them.

  11. McFlock 12

    lol

    Stuff framing:

    Election campaign live: Labour drops 5 points in latest poll as Judith Collins and Jacinda Ardern head into first TV debate

    gotta keep the horse race looking competitive, I guess

    • ha ha…excellent McFlock……I remember the days, not so long ago, when Labour would dream of getting anywhere near 40.

      That 6% for the Greens is solid. They will be back.

      • Phil 12.1.1

        That 6% for the Greens is solid. They will be back.

        Given the longstanding issue of Green overperformance in polls relative to election results, 6% is not solid for them at all. It's a seat-of-the-pants / nailbiting level of support for getting them back into parliament.

        • Bearded Git 12.1.1.1

          Phil-I was thinking in the context of this being a good result, and still improving, after the media attacks of the relatively minor issue of the Green school.

          Labour's timid policies help push quite a few votes to the Greens.

  12. ScottGN 13

    Possible seat changes?

    All Labour gains from National except Takanini which is a new seat.

    Auckland Central

    Hutt South

    East Coast

    Nelson

    Wairarapa

    Whanganui

    Takanini

    Maungakiekie

    Tukituki

    • Cinny 13.1

      Possible seat changes? Nelson

      Yes please and thank you yes

      • Michael 13.1.1

        Hutt South would be a great win too. An end to the Member for Big Tobacco's pretensions, even if he scrapes back on on their List. How many of their List do make it back in this scenario?

  13. Dennis Frank 14

    That bunch of extreme leftists predicting onsite here that funding for the Green School would sink the Greens seem to have been proven wrong.

    Even if one or two percent of poll respondents answered in accord with that outrage by switching or abstaining, a similar number who have voted Green in the past while returning to support Jacinda may have made a strategic move back to the Greens to keep them in parliament, thus cancelling the effect of the outrage.

  14. Anne 15

    I'm getting a little frustrated with Jacinda tonight. She's letting Judith get away with chopping her off from completing answers to questions. Judith is bullying her and she's not responding fast enough or not at all.

    Note: Judith is trying to demean her by calling her “Miss Ardern”.

    • mickysavage 15.1

      It is fine and I am sure is a tactic. Judith started off disciplined but she is looking more and more ragged.

      • Dennis Frank 15.1.1

        Ragged & a tad feral. But I agree with Anne – except that is actually the role of the moderator & John is perhaps too tolerant of Judith's over-talking tactic.

        Doubt it will win much public support since it has been a large contributor to turning people off politics in the past! So could backfire on Judith…

    • smokeskreen1309 15.2

      It's a form of "filibusting" – the oldest trick in the book when trying to deliberately delay or obstruct. The moderator should be controlling this behaviour.

      [Could you please stick with one user name and associated e-mail address? That would save Moderators time, thanks – Incognito]

    • Kat 15.3

      Don't worry Anne, Collins is digging herself into a large hole. "I don't care about healthy homes"……..best for Jacinda to let Collins just carry on and sweat her fresh cake of her face tonight.

      • Anne 15.3.1

        Sorry Kat but I agree with the two "experts" – a political scientist from Auckland Uni (I think) and Jessica Mutch McKay.

        Jacinda was too academic with her responses. She came across as on the defensive when she should have been playing Judith at her own game.

        I'm a big JA supporter, but Judith Collins won the debate tonight. The fact she was lying and twisting like a snake in the grass is irrelevant on these occasions. She knew she had won too. It was all there on her face.

        • Kat 15.3.1.1

          Ok Anne, agree that Collins tossed a handbag more barbs/grenades than Jacinda, but she didn't throw them far enough. And since when is Jessica Mutch McKay’s eyebrow raising blinking breathlessly delivered opinion of any real worth.

          • Anne 15.3.1.1.1

            I was more interested in the comments from the political scientist whose name escapes me.

            • Kat 15.3.1.1.1.1

              Political science commentary in this context is more about blood sport analogy and who landed the "big hits" rather than anything that’s meaningful. Jacinda did well to just let Collins be a show off spinning her wheels, on cue, for the blue team.

              • PaddyOT

                I have to agree on that "blood sport " analogy Kat.

                In Luke Malpass' opinion piece tonight on the " leaders" he uses the same tactic. Analysis is not about dire issues, more about admiring number of punches as the measure of winner qualities.

                Malpass relabels Judith's rude, obnoxious, tyrannical behaviour as strengths.
                Judith's unstable passive-aggressive style, Malpass whitewashes as the admired style.
                It's kind of a sick indictment on New Zealanders if this Trumpism is still today's winning leadership strengths.

                Subversive demeaning of Arden; she of course was only there to avoid becoming an internet meme.

                "Jacinda Ardern lost the first leaders’ debate, but Judith Collins didn’t win it.

                Ardern, for her part, a now hardened political professional, seemed determined to avoid creating a viral Internet meme out of the night. If that were the intent, she achieved it….
                Collins came out with nothing to lose: swinging, heckling, interrupting and taking the fight to the Labour leader…….
                Collins proved her worth to National tonight : it is unlikely she lost any votes.
                Collins could barely disguise her contempt for the Labour leader: scoffing, rolling her eyes, going after the PM ….
                The tactic from Collins seems to try to get under Ardern’s skin, while Ardern seemed to be trying to be relentlessly optimistic and nice – presumably to draw a contrast between the two. "

                http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122852273/leaders-election-debate-verdict-jacinda-ardern-lost-but-judith-collins-didnt-win-it?cid=app-android

                From another professional perspective and in another room, Judith could well fit the description of Nurse Ratched.

                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nurse_Ratched

        • Liberty4NZ 15.3.1.2

          Have to disagree Anne, Jacinda is smart – she let Judith be Judith, nuff said.

    • mauī 15.4

      There's one leader on the stage and someone else doing their best Jack Nicholson impression.

  15. Adrian 16

    She now doesn’t care about water quality. Its a Painfully slow car crash for Collins.

    • Patricia 2 16.1

      Miss Collins doesn't care about water quality or healthy houses. Wants to pull down all the old HNZ houses. No CGT for her – especially on her second house currently in a trust. Great that people on low incomes of $60K plus annually will reap the benefits of the Nat Tax plans and they'll spend up large too. Tough about those on low incomes but National was the first government to raise the benefits in 43 years. No mention that in 1991 National was the first government ever to reduce benefits (by around 25%). Tech is the new saviour – that's where National will put all their hope and energy. And get rid of the RMA – then everyone will be housed. And so on and so forth.

      I hope the next moderator keeps better control.

  16. Adrian 17

    Most people can very quickly tell the difference between a genuine smile and a forced one where the smiler is desperately trying to cover the fact that they have kacked their daks as we used to say. Judith or Parliamentary Services, looks like she has a big dry cleaning bill on the way.

  17. observer 18

    Is this the debate thread?

    We all lost, if we want debate that informs voters, checks facts, and does more than just repeat talking points and then go to an ad break.

    Campbell constantly telling the politicians how fine they are really does my head in. He can't help himself. Just ask the questions, ref when you need to, but otherwise get out of the way.

    Nobody did zingers or gaffes, so if you're nailed on for either team nothing has changed. Undecideds probably reached for the remote.

    • Incognito 18.1

      How was the worm? Wriggly?

      • observer 18.1.1

        No worm, thank goodness.

        A propos … a true story: in 2005 the worm was used in a debate including Tariana Turia. Somebody (forget who) did a TV piece afterwards which showed that when Turia was introduced, the worm went sharply down before she started speaking. It was the perfect commentary on prejudice.

    • Kat 18.2

      Its obvious now that Hosking is a better TV entertainment political sparing MC than Campbell. They both have their strengths and as blue as Hosking may be he gets to the core of the question more succinctly. Ok that may not be exhibiting nuance and subtlety but for these modern 30 second sound byte TV adverting sponsor driven political exchanges, Hosking’s style is more palatable. Phew! did I just say that.

      • froggleblocks 18.2.1

        I was very impressed with Hosking as debate moderator in the past.

        Perhaps "incredibly shocked" is more the root of it.

  18. RedBaronCV 19

    It was in the closing statement that Jacinda seemed at her best. But I still thought she could have hit it a bit harder. Something along the lines of

    "We had a plan for covid modified it as necessary from experience and it worked.

    We have a plan for NZ looking ahead we want to do our best for everyone, we will modify as necessary and we know that the loudest and richest voices are not the only ones to be listened to. It will work"

    Apart from that – there is more to NZ than Auckland – and the TV needs to understand this. We don't have an audience because of the alert levels goes John Campbell. Well could the debate have been shifted to say Christchurch? I assume it was in Auckland.

  19. ScottGN 20

    I agree with observer. The whole thing was a waste. Labour and Ardern will just be pleased to have gotten it out of the way.

  20. ianmac 21

    We all lost, if we want debate that informs voters, checks facts, -Observer

    Yes. A pity because no issues were debated. Jacinda didn't bother to counter Judith's snarls. Good on her. Campbell has to compere better.

    I think it might have been a help to Judith as she often finished a sentence she started and even put a point of view at times. surprise!

    • Anne 21.1

      I agree ianmac. It was also a premeditated tactic by Collins to never let Jacinda complete her answers and to roll her eyes every time she spoke. Campbell should not have allowed her to get away with that. He also let Judith get away with calling her "Miss Ardern" which was designed to be insulting.

      He was a terrible compere.

      • Patricia 2 21.1.1

        John Campbell reminds me of Uriah Heep ; great at wringing his hands and wanting to be everybody's friend.

        • Kat 21.1.1.1

          "simply marvelous…………."

        • Duncan 21.1.1.2

          Used to see him down at the Herne Bay Fish Mart, doing his creepy do you know me type voice, trying to get an extra piece of fish I guess.

          Then there was Ralston, buying his Lotto ticket every week, trying to become someone.

          It's not until you meet these people you realise how sad they are.

  21. Dennis Frank 22

    They both claimed to have a plan but neither was able to answer the what is it question John asked. Both obfuscated. It was obvious that both meant ‘more business as usual' while being too dishonest to say so.

    Collins responded to the question about dirty dairying by saying `I'll tell you what's dirty: the rivers." Glee was evident. It was as if she genuinely believed she was scoring a point!

    For the leader of the opposition to publicly disclose that they still haven't been able to comprehend the effect of dairy run-off (polluting rivers) is truly astonishing! Ardern had no such abysmal fail moments.

    • Hunter Thompson II 22.1

      Collins may believe she scored a few petty verbal triumphs over Jacinda Ardern in the so-called "debate", but that won't mean a thing when people stand in the voting booth on election day with that felt tip pen in their hands.

      We want a leader who thinks of all NZers, not just the 1%.

      It would be great to have a higher standard of post-debate analysis, too. Jessica Mutch-McKay seems to think that by interrrupting and finger pointing Collins got an advantage.

      Spare me.

    • Peter 22.2

      A bit like Coolins etc. rubbishing the Greens call in the past few days about the bottom trawling in the Hauraki gulf. Collins on TV chuckling it off as not important, Brownlee not knowing the Manukau Harbour, Collins telling him at the end of Maori language week MAN A COW.

      It was a testimony to arrogance ignorance and amoral bankrupt arsehole leadership.

      https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/greens-announce-election-pledge-ban-bottom-trawling-dredging-in-hauraki-gulf

  22. Barfly 23

    Has Collins gotten hair extensions?

  23. Anne 24

    She's certainly well botoxed.angry

  24. Brian Tregaskin 25

    Jessica Mutch-McKay –Jess is a very smart operator –watch her closing sentence after each Colmar Brunton poll wrap up.

    Tonight "BUT…..there is three weeks to go"

    Previous poll "BUT….a week is a long time in politics"

    when she says the word BUT she is being mischievous.

  25. Kiwijoker 26

    What’s going on at breakfast on one?They’re all frothing at the mouth over Mrs Collins and denigrating the PM by stating she was “defending “ her performance in the debate.
    Incidently I felt Jacinda, towards the end of the debate, started to control the narrative.

  26. Foreign waka 27

    I might be out of favour with my comment, but being a democracy I will risk it.

    Firstly, the debate was very boring. No substance. Occasionally a flicker of "where do I draw the line in the sand" by Judith Collins but unfortunately only platitudes by Jacinda Ardern.

    Disappointing to say the least and the country deserves better. The economic times ahead will be more than tough and this calls for a bit more than slogans.

    If I hear one more time shovel ready projects I start to cry.

    Capital gains tax (yeah right, almost all parliamentarians have more than 1 property), addressing of hiding funds in trusts, opinion on UBI, ethical stance on the right to die bill, taxation of companies who incidentally have taken now the profits financed via handouts. Socialised loss to keep them quiet in the corner?

    Inflation: not a mention!

    Loss of Jobs: Only Judith mentioned anything

    I don't want to write an essay but the debate did not convince me to vote for labour.

    Undecided at the moment.

  27. JeffB 28

    I’d like to see the Māori party back and part of a coalition where Labour could pass legislation with either Greens or Māori.

  28. Weasel 29

    Steve Braunias had the best analysis in The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/first-tv-debate-jacinda-ardern-judith-collins-avoids-being-horror-show

    His accurate zinger on Jacinda was that she "was as tranquil as a lake and just as flat."

    Jacinda's determination to be "relentlessly positive" meant she allowed Collins to get away with things like saying abolishing the RMA will be the thing that helps people out of poverty.

    The tactic of safety first and no mistakes will most likely win, and I know this is not a game, but plenty of soccer teams have sat back on a 2-0, or 3-0 lead only to allow the opposition back into the match or even lose.

    She looks like she has had to deal with crisis after crisis and in need of a decent holiday but she does need to summon up some animation for the next few weeks and then hopefully take a nice, long break.

  29. Steve 30

    The sooner the Greens drop support below 5% the better as they are unneeded in Parliament as all they are is Glorified Protesters and draconian policies.
    Take the money from the fake Climate Change Fund which is just a tax for the needy to feed the greedy. All that money going to UN. Why cant this money be used for useful purposes due to Covid Crisis.
    Climate not changing its just a way to tax people. Fools believe it. CO2 at low levels and its beneficial for growing plants. As people who have hot houses. Here is a link to think about. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

    • Robert Guyton 30.1

      Steve! You're the Man! We thrill to your view! Will you lead our new party – the Party of the People with Common Sense!!???

      Praise the Lord for delivering Steve to us in our hour of need!!!

  30. ken 31

    Nah, nah nah, nah nah nah nah.

    Nah nah nah nah………

    Not Jude!

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