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Daily Review 21/07/2016

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 pm, July 21st, 2016 - 79 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Donald Trump wall

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

79 comments on “Daily Review 21/07/2016 ”

  1. Anne 1

    So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.

    And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?

    • Sacha 1.1

      What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.

    • Colonial Viper 1.2

      And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?

      No, not like that – a position on the White House speech writing staff.

    • Blackcap 1.3

      seems political speeches are rife with plagirism…

      sort of makes sense as most are cliche after cliche. Cannot avoid it really.

    • Michelle 1.4

      What a blond bimbo( Melania) is and what phonys ( American spelling) the Americans are. Their democractic system is also phony

  2. joe90 2

    for giggles

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3

    Make no mistake: National Party values are on display again.

    As Blabbermouth Lusk made clear years ago, electoral amnesia is their only hope.

  4. ianmac 4

    Morgan!!!
    During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
    Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%).
    Believe it or not!
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6902-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2016-201607211639?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention&utm_content=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention+CID_d86de7e85c0f574405361989f1086b06&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=National%20extends%20lead%20over%20Labour%20to%20highest%20in%20over%20a%20year%20as%20Government%20unveils%201%20billion%20housing%20infrastructure%20fund

    • weka 4.1

      Let’s see what the next one says, and what others say. I’m guessing it’s a rogue poll.

      • Ben 4.1.1

        I’m guessing Labour is simply useless at getting their message across. On the odd occasion they do, the message has no appeal.

        • mickysavage 4.1.1.1

          Go away troll.

          • Ben 4.1.1.1.1

            Wow. Burn from MS. I keep forgetting that dissenting views are not permitted in the echo-chamber.

            I thought you would be happy that Little is finally starting to make Cunliffe look good.

            • weka 4.1.1.1.1.1

              Still trolling then 🙄

              • jcuknz

                Why do you encourage them Micky and Weka …. it is obvious what they are and do not need replies 🙂

            • Wensleydale 4.1.1.1.1.2

              That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.

        • Blue Boy 4.1.1.2

          On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?

      • Chuck 4.1.2

        Last month it was a good poll result for Lab/Gr weka…was that a rogue poll as well? 🙂

        • weka 4.1.2.1

          It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?

          People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.

    • Paul 4.2

      Seems to make no sense at all.

      • Anne 4.2.1

        Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.

        And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.

        So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.

        • Eyre 4.2.1.1

          Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them

          • Anne 4.2.1.1.1

            It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.

            It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.

            • Eyre 4.2.1.1.1.1

              I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.

              • Sabine

                i think Eyre that you are wrong.

                This is Phil Twyford today on radio in regards to the WINZ Garage Housing Issue 🙂

                http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201809075/auckland-housing-crisis-reaches-new-low-labour

                but i agree they must be useless.

                • Eyre

                  Where is little?. He’s in the news nearly every day when parliament is sitting. Since the recess nothing.

                  • Sabine

                    actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.

                    don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂

              • Anne

                And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.

      • Stuart Munro 4.2.2

        Well Key has given NZ the gift that money can’t buy this month – his absence.

    • Ben 4.3

      “In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”

      Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc

      Did I miss anything?

      • weka 4.3.1

        And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.

      • mickysavage 4.3.2

        Yes you did. It is a real rogue. Go outside and talk to ordinary people and work out if they think the Government is doing a good job.

        • JamieB 4.3.2.1

          And then follow it up with asking them if they think Andrew Little and Labour would do a better job.

          • Ben 4.3.2.1.1

            +100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.

        • Colonial Viper 4.3.2.2

          Yes you did. It is a real rogue. Go outside and talk to ordinary people and work out if they think the Government is doing a good job.

          The danger is that people are simply going to hold their nose on Election Day and vote English/Key.

    • Chuck 4.4

      Can’t be right?? Bomber Bradbury had his “secret poll” with the Lab/Gr collation leading the Nats…

      Colonial Vipers guess of 25% for Lab in 2017 seems on target.

    • Muttonbird 4.5

      The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.

    • Colonial Viper 4.6

      Effect of the Labour/Greens MOU now being felt. Also National’s proactive *cough* steps in the housing market.

      • mickysavage 4.6.1

        Nope it is clearly a rogue.

        • weka 4.6.1.1

          Micky, do you have any links handy to something credible discussing what rogue polls are?

          edit, found this which explains margins of error and why one in 20 polls will be a rogue.

          On the perils of polls

          • mickysavage 4.6.1.1.1

            It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.

            My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.

            If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.

            • weka 4.6.1.1.1.1

              That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.

            • instrider 4.6.1.1.1.2

              It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.

              I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.

              [lprent: Banned for 3 months.

              You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.

              I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]

              • Colonial Viper

                Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming

                Yeah some did. LAB 25% +/-3% IMO.

              • swordfish

                ” Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling.”

                Nothing particularly “mysterious” about it. UMR have been polling monthly since the 1990s:

                Daily Review 21/07/2016

                Does, however, boast a track record for accuracy.

                • instrider

                  So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak

              • jcuknz

                Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
                * And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
                Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
                No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂

    • swordfish 4.7

      Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?

      Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.

      That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.

      Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:

      Bold = Oppo Lead
      Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
      (all figures rounded for simplicity)
      (IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)

      2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points

      Roy Morgan Polls
      2014
      Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
      Nov …………Govt by 5
      Dec …………Govt by 3

      2015
      Jan …………..Govt by 12
      Feb ………….Govt by 2
      March ……..Govt by 2
      April ……….. Oppo by 1
      May ………..Govt by 14
      June ………..Govt by 6
      July ………….Oppo by 7
      Aug …………Govt by 6
      Sep …………Oppo by 5
      Oct …………Govt by 3
      Nov ………..Govt by 4
      Dec ………..Govt by 4

      2016
      Jan …………Govt by 3
      Feb ………..Govt by 2
      March ……Oppo by 4
      April ………Oppo by 8
      May ……….Oppo by 3
      June ……….Oppo by 7
      July …………Govt by 10

      So now this sudden swing to the Right.

      Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?

      You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.

      Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.

      So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.

      Just have to wait and see.

      • Stuart Munro 4.7.1

        Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.

    • adam 4.8

      Every month I’ve been saying this.

      FORGET THE DAMN POLLS!!!

      Outside of an election, they are nothing more than a sad tool of lazy journalists too slack to do any real journalism.

      Do I need to mention the scummy PR people trying to set the agenda for there client.

      • Chuck 4.8.1

        While I agree the only poll that counts is on election day, polling is a very important tool used by ALL political parties.

        “Forget the damn polls” is not an advisable strategy, but feel free to suggest it to your mates!

        I think swordfish in 4.7 sums it up pretty well…lets wait and see

    • weka 5.1

      Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.

      One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).

      I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.

      Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.

      This.

      Very helpful article, thanks.

      • jcuknz 5.1.1

        Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
        Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
        This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.

  5. Salsy 6

    Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.

  6. Paul 7

    53% of this country are benefiting from Key’s regime?
    Give me a break.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      53% of this country uninterested in whatever new things that Labour/Greens MOU was supposed to bring. Which since its signing has been fuck all.

      LAB/GR needed to roll out multiple massive new policy together week to week to show that they were serious about teaming up.

  7. Paul 8

    The Sun and the Herald are despicable rags.

    What The Sun newspaper just did to this victim of a brutal murder is absolutely despicable
    The Sun has plumbed new depths in a desperate attempt to prop up its falling readership – but even by its own disgraceful standards, this is low.
    On Wednesday, it reported the tragic death 20-year old India Chipchase.

    Chipchase had studied health and social care at college, and worked as a part-time barmaid at the Collingtree pub in Northampton.
    Her former lecturer at Northampton college, Jo Forester, paid tribute to Chipchase, saying:
    ‘Within college she was a well-liked member of her group by both staff and students for her caring nature and sense of humour. She was a hardworking, intelligent young lady who possessed the maturity to complete all the targets she set herself regarding her college work and placement experiences.’
    However, the Sun chose not to focus on the positive aspects of the 20-year old’s life. Instead, it chose to turn her murder into clickbait.

    Here is the tweet in question – and The Canary politely asks its readers not to click through to the article, as the Sun does not deserve the additional readers:
    Woman ‘drank six Jagerbombs in ten minutes on the night she was raped and murdered’.

    To say that the Sun is implying that Chipchase’s alcohol consumption had something to do with her rape and murder would be an understatement. This is a shameless example of the newspaper’s attitude towards women, and symptomatic of the entrenched bigotry and misogyny that exists at the tabloid.

    http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/21/sun-newspaper-just-victim-brutal-murder-absolutely-despicable-tweets-images/

    And the Herald in New Zealand has followed the Sun’s lead….
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11678471

    What a shameful rag.

  8. Garibaldi 9

    I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.

  9. save nz 10

    Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.

    Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!

    They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).

    Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.

    Don’t mess with it.

    You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.

    The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!

    • Pat 10.1

      as one of that 65% I am quite happy to see the prices reduce and it will occur whether it is forced or not

      • weka 10.1.1

        +1

        L/Greens aren’t on property, they’re on housing. There is a difference.

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1

          What’s the difference? Foreign ownership of our farms not part of the platform?

          • weka 10.1.1.1.1

            Are you saying you don’t understand the difference between how to house people and how to make money from property investment?

  10. save nz 11

    @ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?

    Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.

    If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.

    Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.

    There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.

    • weka 11.1

      Don’t both the Greens and Labour say they want to slow immigration and overseas investment?

      • Colonial Viper 11.1.1

        Slow? By how much? 10%? 20%?

        Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).

    • Pat 11.2

      “there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”

      beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…

      you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime

      your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.

      So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).

  11. swordfish 12

    Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.

    In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.

    Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:

    UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
    CB = One News Colmar Brunton
    RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
    RM = Roy Morgan
    HD = Herald DigiPoll
    FI = Fairfax Ipsos

    2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column

    All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity

    2014 Election………….UMR…….CB………RR……….RM………HD……….FI

    Nat ……47 ………………… 47 ……… 45 ……… 45 ………. 47 ……… 48 …….. 48

    Lab …….25………………… 25 ……… 25 ……… 26 ……… 24 …….. 26 …….. 26

    Green ..11 ………………… 13 ………. 12 ……… 14 ……… 14 ……….11…….. 12

    NZF ….. 8.7 ………………..7.5 ……… 8.0 …….. 7.1……… 8.0 …….. 8.4 ……. 6.6

    Cons ……. 4.0 …………….. 4.0 ……… 4.4 ……… 4.9 ……… 3.5 ……. 3.3 ……..4.5

    Maori … 1.3 ……………… 1.5 ………1.6 ………. 1.1………. 1.5 ……. 1.1 …….. 0.9

    IMP……. 1.4 ………………. 1.4 ……… 1.8 ………. 2.0 ……… 1.0 …….. 1.0 …….. 0.9

    ACT …….. 0.7 ……………….. 0.4 ……… 0.6 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.5 …….. 0.3

    UF ………. 0.2 ……………………. 0 ……… 0 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.2 …….. 0

    UMR performed similarly well in its final pre-Election Polls in 2008 and 2011.

    • instrider 12.1

      Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.

      The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number

      Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result

      • swordfish 12.1.1

        “The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”

        Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).

        And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures:
        2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
        National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%

        Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.

        July 2016 UMR
        National 41%

        July 2016 RM
        National 53%

        If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
        (1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now)
        and, at the same time,
        (2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).

  12. swordfish 13

    A slightly clearer version of the above table:

    2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column

    All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity

    2014 Election ………………………..Final Round of Polls……………………………………

    Nat ….…47 ……..UMR 47 …..… CB 45 ….……RR 45 ………. RM 47 .…..…HD 48 …….…FI 48

    Lab …….25…….…UMR 25 …..…CB 25 ….……RR 26 ………RM 24 …..…..HD 26 ………..FI 26

    Green ..11 …….…UMR 13 …..…CB 12 ….……RR 14 ………RM 14 …….….HD 11…..….. FI 12

    NZF …… 8.7 ….….UMR 7.5 ……CB 8.0 …..…..RR 7.1………RM 8.0 ….…..HD 8.4 …….….FI 6.6

    Cons …. 4.0 ….….UMR 4.0 …….CB 4.4 …….…RR 4.9 ………RM 3.5 ….….HD 3.3 …..…..FI 4.5

    Maori … 1.3 ……..UMR 1.5 ….…CB 1.6 ……….RR 1.1……….RM 1.5 ……..HD 1.1 …..…..FI 0.9

    IMP……. 1.4 …..…UMR 1.4 ……..CB 1.8 ……….RR 2.0 ………RM 1.0 ….…..HD 1.0 …..…..FI 0.9

    ACT …….. 0.7 ……UMR 0.4 …..…CB 0.6 ……….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.5 …..…..FI 0.3

    UF ………. 0.2 …….UMR 0 ….…..…CB 0 …….….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.2 …….…..FI 0

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