So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
In working with Melania Trump on her recent First Lady speech, we discussed many people who inspired her and messages she wanted to share with the American people,” Trump staffer Meredith McIver said. “A person she has always liked is Michelle Obama. Over the phone, she read me some passages from Mrs. Obama’s speech as examples. I wrote them down and later included some of the phrasing in the draft that ultimately became the final speech. I did not check Mrs. Obama’s speeches.
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
What The Sun newspaper just did to this victim of a brutal murder is absolutely despicable
The Sun has plumbed new depths in a desperate attempt to prop up its falling readership – but even by its own disgraceful standards, this is low.
On Wednesday, it reported the tragic death 20-year old India Chipchase.
Chipchase had studied health and social care at college, and worked as a part-time barmaid at the Collingtree pub in Northampton.
Her former lecturer at Northampton college, Jo Forester, paid tribute to Chipchase, saying:
‘Within college she was a well-liked member of her group by both staff and students for her caring nature and sense of humour. She was a hardworking, intelligent young lady who possessed the maturity to complete all the targets she set herself regarding her college work and placement experiences.’
However, the Sun chose not to focus on the positive aspects of the 20-year old’s life. Instead, it chose to turn her murder into clickbait.
Here is the tweet in question – and The Canary politely asks its readers not to click through to the article, as the Sun does not deserve the additional readers:
Woman ‘drank six Jagerbombs in ten minutes on the night she was raped and murdered’.
To say that the Sun is implying that Chipchase’s alcohol consumption had something to do with her rape and murder would be an understatement. This is a shameless example of the newspaper’s attitude towards women, and symptomatic of the entrenched bigotry and misogyny that exists at the tabloid.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures: 2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now) and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
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History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
Open access notablesImproving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society:To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
Get to know Babushka, our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Babu’s humans, Jo and Isabel, for their support. Dog name: Babushka (Babu for short) Age: 2Breed: Border Collie X poodleIf rescued, ...
Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide Pixavri/Shutterstock A major Federal Court class action has been dismissed this week after Justice Michael Lee ruled there was not enough evidence to prove the weedkiller Roundup causes cancer. Plaintiff Kelvin ...
In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Bennett, PhD Student, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin University Last week, a drone delivery company called Wing (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet) started operating in Melbourne. Some 250,000 residents in parts of the city’s eastern suburbs can now order food from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Foo, Lecturer, Physiotherapy, Monash University pikselstock/Shutterstock In the next 40 years in Australia, it’s predicted the number of Australians aged 65 and over will more than double, while the number of people aged 85 and over will more than triple. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina Grant, Research Associate, Power Institute for Arts and Visual Culture, University of Sydney Jonas Åkerström’s 1790 work, Session of the Accademia dell’Arcadia on August 17 1788.Nationalmuseum/Cecilia Heisser Ever wondered whether you’d have a better chance at winning an Olympic gold ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Jones, Program Lead, Food Governance, George Institute for Global Health wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock On Thursday, Australian and New Zealand food ministers at state, federal and national levels met to thrash out what’s next for health star ratings on packaged foods. Now, after ...
The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
If you haven’t started watching yet, Tara Ward begs you to reconsider. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. In the world of New Zealand reality television, we have many gems in our crown. There’s the delicious second season of the Celebrity Treasure ...
A new poem by Fiona Kidman. The clothes of the dead I did not keep my mother’s furry red beret for long nor the stringy scarves that adorned the necks of my aunts, although I have kept tag ends of gold, the rings and trinkets they wore, the brooches no ...
The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
The 2004 Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed in the Crown, extinguishing any Māori claims to ownership and causing widespread outrage and protests among Māori communities. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Despite the connection between institutional harm and gang membership made clear in this week’s mammoth royal commission abuse-in care report, the government seems unlikely to soften its “get tough on ...
From Lewis Clareburt in the swimming to the start of the rowing – the first seven days of Paris 2024 promise to be big for New Zealand. There are few events that bring the country together quite like an Olympic Games. Nothing quite matches the excitement of getting up in ...
Groundbreaking local science just showed up in the most surprising of places: the season finale of The Kardashians. In the season five finale of The Kardashians last night, several members of the family gathered together in one of their signature empty, cream-coloured rooms to hear test results that had been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level. Washington has engaged in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Elizabeth Eades, Rheumatologist, Monash University Lupus is an inflammatory autoimmune illness, where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks itself. Lupus can affect virtually any part of the body, although it most commonly affects the skin, joints and kidneys. The symptoms ...
A law firm that specialises in working with survivors of abuse in State care is disappointed that the Government fails to recognise that its boot camps can be directly compared to previous boot camps from the 1990s and 2000s. ...
Dying is a natural part of life, like updating your Wof or seeing your hairdresser, but without the word-of-mouth recs that help guarantee a good service. What if we changed that? Dying Reviews received by The Spinoff have had the names of organisations redacted while Hospice NZ collects further data. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Mike Lewinski/Flickr, CC BY On any clear night, if you gaze skywards long enough, chances are you’ll see a meteor streaking through the sky. Some nights, however, are better than others. At ...
Despite having no bars or other designated spaces for lesbians, Auckland boasts a small but mighty lesbian museum. So how did it get here? The past 18 months has brought increasing hostility towards the queer community across Aotearoa. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s anti-trans rally in Tamaki Makaurau last March led to a ...
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So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
Might be bullshit, might be the truth:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/20/9-ridiculous-defenses-of-melania-trumps-plagiarized-speech-that-now-look-even-more-ridiculous/
I read somewhere online today (can’t find it now) that it was the other way round but who knows. As you say: Might be bullshit, might be the truth
No, not like that – a position on the White House speech writing staff.
seems political speeches are rife with plagirism…
https://www.facebook.com/donaldtrumppresident/videos/vb.451075468389015/606879372808623/?type=2&theater
sort of makes sense as most are cliche after cliche. Cannot avoid it really.
What a blond bimbo( Melania) is and what phonys ( American spelling) the Americans are. Their democractic system is also phony
for giggles
Make no mistake: National Party values are on display again.
As Blabbermouth Lusk made clear years ago, electoral amnesia is their only hope.
Morgan!!!
During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%).
Believe it or not!
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6902-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2016-201607211639?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention&utm_content=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention+CID_d86de7e85c0f574405361989f1086b06&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=National%20extends%20lead%20over%20Labour%20to%20highest%20in%20over%20a%20year%20as%20Government%20unveils%201%20billion%20housing%20infrastructure%20fund
Let’s see what the next one says, and what others say. I’m guessing it’s a rogue poll.
I’m guessing Labour is simply useless at getting their message across. On the odd occasion they do, the message has no appeal.
Go away troll.
Wow. Burn from MS. I keep forgetting that dissenting views are not permitted in the echo-chamber.
I thought you would be happy that Little is finally starting to make Cunliffe look good.
Still trolling then 🙄
Why do you encourage them Micky and Weka …. it is obvious what they are and do not need replies 🙂
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
Last month it was a good poll result for Lab/Gr weka…was that a rogue poll as well? 🙂
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Seems to make no sense at all.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
i think Eyre that you are wrong.
This is Phil Twyford today on radio in regards to the WINZ Garage Housing Issue 🙂
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201809075/auckland-housing-crisis-reaches-new-low-labour
but i agree they must be useless.
Where is little?. He’s in the news nearly every day when parliament is sitting. Since the recess nothing.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
Well Key has given NZ the gift that money can’t buy this month – his absence.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
Did I miss anything?
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
Yes you did. It is a real rogue. Go outside and talk to ordinary people and work out if they think the Government is doing a good job.
And then follow it up with asking them if they think Andrew Little and Labour would do a better job.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The danger is that people are simply going to hold their nose on Election Day and vote English/Key.
Can’t be right?? Bomber Bradbury had his “secret poll” with the Lab/Gr collation leading the Nats…
Colonial Vipers guess of 25% for Lab in 2017 seems on target.
edit: should be Lab/Gr “coalition”
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
Effect of the Labour/Greens MOU now being felt. Also National’s proactive *cough* steps in the housing market.
Nope it is clearly a rogue.
Micky, do you have any links handy to something credible discussing what rogue polls are?
edit, found this which explains margins of error and why one in 20 polls will be a rogue.
http://thestandard.org.nz/on-the-perils-of-polls/
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
Yeah some did. LAB 25% +/-3% IMO.
” Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling.”
Nothing particularly “mysterious” about it. UMR have been polling monthly since the 1990s:
http://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-21072016/#comment-1206926
Does, however, boast a track record for accuracy.
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Just have to wait and see.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Every month I’ve been saying this.
FORGET THE DAMN POLLS!!!
Outside of an election, they are nothing more than a sad tool of lazy journalists too slack to do any real journalism.
Do I need to mention the scummy PR people trying to set the agenda for there client.
While I agree the only poll that counts is on election day, polling is a very important tool used by ALL political parties.
“Forget the damn polls” is not an advisable strategy, but feel free to suggest it to your mates!
I think swordfish in 4.7 sums it up pretty well…lets wait and see
http://dark-mountain.net/blog/the-dithering-age-holocene-anthropocene-and-chthulucene/
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
This.
Very helpful article, thanks.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
Interesting. Where was this reported?
Hooton on Nine to Noon and then again on twitter I think (for whatever that is worth).
http://thestandard.org.nz/nationals-rodeo/#comment-1203811
lol
I see you’re maintaining your usual standards of cogent argument and insightful debate. Keep it up.
53% of this country are benefiting from Key’s regime?
Give me a break.
53% of this country uninterested in whatever new things that Labour/Greens MOU was supposed to bring. Which since its signing has been fuck all.
LAB/GR needed to roll out multiple massive new policy together week to week to show that they were serious about teaming up.
The Sun and the Herald are despicable rags.
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/21/sun-newspaper-just-victim-brutal-murder-absolutely-despicable-tweets-images/
And the Herald in New Zealand has followed the Sun’s lead….
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11678471
What a shameful rag.
Saw that and did not click. MSM are despicable.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
as one of that 65% I am quite happy to see the prices reduce and it will occur whether it is forced or not
+1
L/Greens aren’t on property, they’re on housing. There is a difference.
What’s the difference? Foreign ownership of our farms not part of the platform?
Are you saying you don’t understand the difference between how to house people and how to make money from property investment?
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Don’t both the Greens and Labour say they want to slow immigration and overseas investment?
Slow? By how much? 10%? 20%?
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election………….UMR…….CB………RR……….RM………HD……….FI
Nat ……47 ………………… 47 ……… 45 ……… 45 ………. 47 ……… 48 …….. 48
Lab …….25………………… 25 ……… 25 ……… 26 ……… 24 …….. 26 …….. 26
Green ..11 ………………… 13 ………. 12 ……… 14 ……… 14 ……….11…….. 12
NZF ….. 8.7 ………………..7.5 ……… 8.0 …….. 7.1……… 8.0 …….. 8.4 ……. 6.6
Cons ……. 4.0 …………….. 4.0 ……… 4.4 ……… 4.9 ……… 3.5 ……. 3.3 ……..4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……………… 1.5 ………1.6 ………. 1.1………. 1.5 ……. 1.1 …….. 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 ………………. 1.4 ……… 1.8 ………. 2.0 ……… 1.0 …….. 1.0 …….. 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……………….. 0.4 ……… 0.6 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.5 …….. 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 ……………………. 0 ……… 0 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.2 …….. 0
UMR performed similarly well in its final pre-Election Polls in 2008 and 2011.
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
http://thestandard.org.nz/garner-tweets-on-what-he-was-told-was-latest-umr-poll-result/
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures:
2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now)
and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
A slightly clearer version of the above table:
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election ………………………..Final Round of Polls……………………………………
Nat ….…47 ……..UMR 47 …..… CB 45 ….……RR 45 ………. RM 47 .…..…HD 48 …….…FI 48
Lab …….25…….…UMR 25 …..…CB 25 ….……RR 26 ………RM 24 …..…..HD 26 ………..FI 26
Green ..11 …….…UMR 13 …..…CB 12 ….……RR 14 ………RM 14 …….….HD 11…..….. FI 12
NZF …… 8.7 ….….UMR 7.5 ……CB 8.0 …..…..RR 7.1………RM 8.0 ….…..HD 8.4 …….….FI 6.6
Cons …. 4.0 ….….UMR 4.0 …….CB 4.4 …….…RR 4.9 ………RM 3.5 ….….HD 3.3 …..…..FI 4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……..UMR 1.5 ….…CB 1.6 ……….RR 1.1……….RM 1.5 ……..HD 1.1 …..…..FI 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 …..…UMR 1.4 ……..CB 1.8 ……….RR 2.0 ………RM 1.0 ….…..HD 1.0 …..…..FI 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……UMR 0.4 …..…CB 0.6 ……….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.5 …..…..FI 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 …….UMR 0 ….…..…CB 0 …….….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.2 …….…..FI 0