So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
In working with Melania Trump on her recent First Lady speech, we discussed many people who inspired her and messages she wanted to share with the American people,” Trump staffer Meredith McIver said. “A person she has always liked is Michelle Obama. Over the phone, she read me some passages from Mrs. Obama’s speech as examples. I wrote them down and later included some of the phrasing in the draft that ultimately became the final speech. I did not check Mrs. Obama’s speeches.
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
What The Sun newspaper just did to this victim of a brutal murder is absolutely despicable
The Sun has plumbed new depths in a desperate attempt to prop up its falling readership – but even by its own disgraceful standards, this is low.
On Wednesday, it reported the tragic death 20-year old India Chipchase.
Chipchase had studied health and social care at college, and worked as a part-time barmaid at the Collingtree pub in Northampton.
Her former lecturer at Northampton college, Jo Forester, paid tribute to Chipchase, saying:
‘Within college she was a well-liked member of her group by both staff and students for her caring nature and sense of humour. She was a hardworking, intelligent young lady who possessed the maturity to complete all the targets she set herself regarding her college work and placement experiences.’
However, the Sun chose not to focus on the positive aspects of the 20-year old’s life. Instead, it chose to turn her murder into clickbait.
Here is the tweet in question – and The Canary politely asks its readers not to click through to the article, as the Sun does not deserve the additional readers:
Woman ‘drank six Jagerbombs in ten minutes on the night she was raped and murdered’.
To say that the Sun is implying that Chipchase’s alcohol consumption had something to do with her rape and murder would be an understatement. This is a shameless example of the newspaper’s attitude towards women, and symptomatic of the entrenched bigotry and misogyny that exists at the tabloid.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures: 2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now) and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
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The University of Waikato has reworded an advertisement that begins the tender process for its new $300 million-plus medical school even though the Government still needs to approve it. However, even the reworded ad contains an architect’s visualisations of what the school might look like. ACT leader David Seymour told ...
As a follow-up to the Rings of Power trailer discussion, I thought I needed to add something. There has been some online mockery about the use of the same actor for both the Halbrand and Annatar incarnations of Sauron. The reasoning is that Halbrand with a shave and a new ...
This isn’t quite as dramatic as the title might suggest. I’m not going anywhere, but there is something I wanted to talk to you about.Let’s start with a typical day.Most days I send out a newsletter in the morning. If I’ve written a lot the previous evening it might be ...
Buzz from the Beehive The promise of tax relief loomed large in his considerations when the PM delivered a pre-Budget speech to the Auckland Business Chamber. The job back in Wellington is getting government spending back under control, he said, bandying figures which show that in per capita terms, the ...
Yesterday de facto Prime Minister David Seymour announced that his glove puppet government would be re-introducing charter schools, throwing $150 million at his pet quacks, donors and cronies and introducing an entire new government agency to oversee them (the existing Education Review Office, which actually knows how to review schools, ...
Seeing that, in order to discredit the figures and achieve moral superiority while attempting to deflect attention away from the military assault on Rafa, Israel supporters in NZ have seized on reports that casualty numbers in Gaza may be inflated … Continue reading → ...
David Farrar writes – Newstalk ZB report: The man responsible for a horror hit and run in central Wellington last year was on a suspended licence and was so drunk he later asked police, “Did I kill someone?” Jason Tuitama injured two women when he ran a red ...
Muriel Newman writes – Former US President Ronald Reagan once said, “Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation.” The fight for ...
Why Courts should have said Waitangi Tribunal could not summons Karen Chhour Gary Judd writes – In the High Court, Justice Isacs declined to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal to compel Minister for Children, Karen Chhour, to appear before it to be ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The number of voices raising concerns about the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill is rapidly growing. This is especially apparent now that Parliament’s select committee is listening to submissions from the public to evaluate the proposed legislation. Twenty-seven thousand submissions have been made to Parliament ...
An average of 166 New Zealand citizens left the country every day during the March quarter, up 54% from a year ago.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The economy and housing market is sinking into a longer recession through the winter after a slump in business and consumer confidence in ...
The government has made it abundantly clear they’re addicted to the smell of new asphalt. On Tuesday they introduced a new term to the country’s roading lexicon, the Roads of Regional Significance (RoRS), a little brother for the Roads of National (Party) Significance (RoNS). Driving ahead with Roads of Regional ...
School is outAnd I walk the empty hallwaysI walk aloneAlone as alwaysThere's so many lucky penniesLying on the floorBut where the hell are all the lucky peopleI can't see them any moreYesterday morning, I’d just sent out my newsletter on Tama Potaka, and I was struggling to make the coffee. ...
Hi,I wanted to check in and ask how you’re doing.This is perhaps a selfish act, of attempting to find others feeling a similar way to me — that is to say, a little hopeless at the moment.Misery loves company, that sort of deal.Some context.I wish I could say I got ...
I have hitherto been fairly quiet on the new season of Rings of Power, on the basis that the underwhelming first season did not exactly build excitement – and the rumours were fairly daft. The only real thing of substance to come out has been that they have re-cast Adar ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
“The thing is,” Chris Luxon says, leaning forward to make his point, “this has always been my thing.”“This goes all the way back to the first multinational I worked for. I was saying exactly the same thing back then. The name of our business needs to be more clear; people ...
Buzz from the Beehive It’s been a momentous few days for Children’s Minister Karen Chhour. The Court of Appeal has overturned a High Court decision which blocked a summons order from the Waitangi Tribunal for her. And today she has announced the Government is putting children first by introducing to ...
In 2014 former Australian army lawyer David McBride leaked classified military documents about Australian war crimes to the ABC. Dubbed "The Afghan Files", the documents led to an explosive report on Australian war crimes, the disbanding of an entire SAS unit, and multiple ongoing prosecutions. The journalist who wrote the ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – According to the respected Pew Research Centre, “In seven of eight [European] countries surveyed, the most trusted news outlet asked about is the public news organization in each country”. For example, “in Sweden, an overwhelming majority (90%) say they trust the public broadcaster SVT”. ...
David Farrar writes – Kata MacNamara reports: Details of Tony Blakely’s involvement in the New Zealand Government’s response to the pandemic raise serious questions about the work of the Covid-19 Royal Commission of Inquiry over which he presides. It has long been clear that Blakely, a ...
Chris Trotter writes – Are you a Brahmin or a Merchant? Or, are you merely one of those whose lives are profoundly influenced by the decisions of Brahmins and Merchants? Those are the questions that are currently shaping the politics of New Zealand and the entire West. ...
RNZ reports – It’s supposed to be a haven of healing and spiritual awakening but residents of the Kawai Purapura community say they’ve been hurt and deceived. It’s the successor to the former Centrepoint commune, and has been on the bush block opposite Albany shopping centre since 2008. It ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. Usually we have a video chat to go with this wrap, but were unable to do one this week. We’ll be back next week.Several reports ...
The Transport Minister has set a hard 'fiscal envelope' of $6.54 billion for transport capital spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The economy is settling into a state of suspended animation as the Government’s funding freezes and job cuts chill confidence and combine with stubbornly high interest rates to ...
Treasury officials have outlined many ways in which the Fast Track Approvals Bill is deeply flawed, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking says. ...
Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and Chlöe Swarbrick used this year's State of the Planet to call on the Government to prioritise people and planet as the delivery of the Budget approaches. A full transcript of their speeches can be found below. ...
Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and Chlöe Swarbrick have used their State of the Planet speeches to challenge the Government to prioritise people and planet over profit as the delivery of the Budget approaches. ...
The Government’s introduction of legislation that would enable landlords to end tenancies with no reason marks a dark day for the 1.4 million people who rent their home in Aotearoa. ...
The Minister for Mental Health has found the Suicide Prevention Office and mental health support for 111 calls slipping through his fingers, says Labour spokesperson for Mental Health Ingrid Leary. ...
Today’s justification from the Minister for Children for scrapping protections for our tamariki was either a case of ignorance or deliberate deception. ...
The Green Party says the Government’s misguided policy on gangs will fail, following the announcement of the establishment of a national gang unit and district gang disruption units to target gang activities. ...
“With Police pay negotiations still unresolved after six months in Government, Mark Mitchell has today rolled the Commissioner out for a rebrand of their approach to gang crime,” Labour police spokesperson Ginny Andersen said. ...
The Government bringing back 50 charter schools will not increase achievement and is a distraction from the core mission of the education system, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Te Pāti Māori is showing extreme concern over the Environment Select Committees adoption of a lucky dip draw to determine hearings for the Fast Track Approvals bill. Of the 27,000 submissions, 2,900 requested to present. All organisations will be heard; however, the remaining 2,350 submitters will be subject to a ...
Today New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events. “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
"On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden. “I raised my concerns after being ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools. “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019. “It is my pleasure ...
New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...
A year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...
Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...
New Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says. “This ...
Minister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...
Minister of Education Erica Stanford will head to the United Kingdom this week to participate in the 22nd Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers (CCEM) and the 2024 Education World Forum (EWF). “I am looking forward to sharing this Government’s education priorities, such as introducing a knowledge-rich curriculum, implementing an evidence-based ...
Minister of Education Erica Stanford has today thanked outgoing New Zealand Qualifications Authority Chair, Hon Tracey Martin. “Tracey Martin tendered her resignation late last month in order to take up a new role,” Ms Stanford says. Ms Martin will relinquish the role of Chair on 10 May and current Deputy ...
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...
Distinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...
Today’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners. “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...
Air Vice-Marshal Tony Davies MNZM is the new Chief of Defence Force, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. The Chief of Defence Force commands the Navy, Army and Air Force and is the principal military advisor to the Defence Minister and other Ministers with relevant portfolio responsibilities in the defence ...
Legislation to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has been introduced to Parliament. The Bill’s introduction reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the safety of children in care, says Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “While section 7AA was introduced with good intentions, it creates a conflict for Oranga ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week travel to the UK and Italy to meet with her defence counterparts, and to attend Battles of Cassino commemorations. “I am humbled to be able to represent the New Zealand Government in Italy at the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of what was ...
The upcoming Budget will include funding for up to 50 charter schools to help lift declining educational performance, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today. $153 million in new funding will be provided over four years to establish and operate up to 15 new charter schools and convert 35 state ...
“The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...
Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues Ladies and Gentlemen, Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...
Health, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...
The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
A New Zealander studying at the University of New Caledonia says students have been taught to use fire extinguishers as firefighters are unlikely to come help if there is an emergency. It comes as days of unrest followed a controversial proposed constitutional amendment which would allow more French residents of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato Getty Images There have been so many submissions on the government’s proposed Fast-track Approvals Bill – 27,000 written, with 2,900 wanting to appear before the select committee in person – that a ballot ...
The LIVE Recording of A View from Afar podcast will begin today at 12:45pm May 20, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, 8:30pm (USEST). Today, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will examine: The United States and how the world is engaging with it geopolitically.Specifically, we will ...
After falling victim to a scam over the phone, Russell Brown spent the day with One NZ’s cyber defence and fraud prevention teams to see the work they do to stop millions of scam attempts every year.The only windows in the Cyber Defence Centre at One NZ’s Auckland headquarters ...
Treasury officials have outlined many ways in which the Fast Track Approvals Bill is deeply flawed, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking says. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marika Sosnowski, Postdoctoral research fellow, The University of Melbourne Ever since armed conflict has existed, ceasefires have been thought of as a bridge between war and peace. Consequently, their success has been measured by their ability to stop violence between warring parties ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antonia Shand, Research Fellow, Obstetrician, University of Sydney Backgroundy/Shutterstock Oral retinoids are a type of medicine used to treat severe acne. They’re sold under the brand name Roaccutane, among others. While oral retinoids are very effective, they can have harmful effects ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Renwick, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand This month the federal government announced a plan to ban live sheep exports, set to come into effect from May 1 2028. The announcement coincided with the release of a highly ...
Another technical answer: ‘no one really knows.’ It smells like hot fat and fish. You hug the warm bundle of newspaper, translucent with grease, swaddling it like a newborn babe. Behind the counter is a small child doing her homework, and the grumpiest Chinese lady in the world. Above you, ...
New Zealanders are being called on to give Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones “the finger” in a cheeky new campaign that aims to dramatically boost marine protection in Aotearoa. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nic Rawlence, Senior Lecturer in Ancient DNA, University of Otago Auckland Island merganser. Artistic reconstruction by J. G. Keulemans from Bullers Birds of New Zealand (1888)Bullers Birds of New Zealand, Author provided Ask a bird lover if they have heard of ...
Leaders from three of the biggest political parties addressed party faithful over the weekend, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. A weekend ...
Kia ora, welcome to Windbag, The Spinoff’s new Wellington issues column, written by me, Joel MacManus. In this first edition, I take a closer look at the first half of Tory Whanau’s term as mayor. If you want to understand Wellington’s local political landscape, you need to start in 2013 ...
A taonga going under the hammer at an Auckland auction house tonight is expected to fetch thousands. But concerns have been raised about its unclear provenance – and about the law that’s meant to protect it. Eda Tang reports. When Tamatea* received the huia feather they bought from a licensed ...
Uncertainty is an overwhelming theme for two seabed mining projects aiming to use the Government’s controversial fast-track regime The post Seabed miners: What we know and what we don’t appeared first on Newsroom. ...
It’s the 38th birthday present Jo Aleh never expected to receive. Last Monday, Aleh and her sailing partner, Molly Meech, flew home to Auckland from Marseille, where they’d been training for their Paris Olympics campaign in the 49erFX. Within a couple of hours of touching down, they were out on ...
“It might feel like the country is slogging it up the hill at the moment,” Finance Minister Nicola Willis tells party faithful in Palmerston North on Sunday, “But we’re gonna get to the top of the hill, and it’s downhill on the other side. And the reason it’s downhill is ...
One issue that all the leaders of the coalition Government have agreed on is the expansion of the Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme. Established in 2007, the scheme allows workers from participating Pacific countries to come to New Zealand to take up roles on a short-term basis. For the government, it’s ...
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The last person anyone expected to see at last week’s Ockham national book awards was Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. He was made to feel as welcome as a plague. He was mocked, and challenged. But good on him for coming. His presence gave the awards an edge, a tension, which ...
Sir Geoffrey Palmer, author of the seminal book Unbridled Power challenging Muldoon-era decision-making,says the Fast-Track Approvals Bill is a bigger threat to constitutional government The post A fast track to environmental degradation appeared first on Newsroom. ...
NC La Première television reports on the clearing of barricades after a week of protests and rioting in the capital Nouméa. Video: NC 1ère TVBy Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk With New Caledonia about to enter its second week of deadly riots, French authorities have mounted ...
Asia Pacific Report Pacific civil society and solidarity groups today stepped up their pressure on the French government, accusing it of a “heavy-handed” crackdown on indigenous Kanak protest in New Caledonia, comparing it to Indonesian security forces crushing West Papuan dissent. A state of emergency was declared last week, at ...
On May 18, the Taiwanese community in Christchurch came together for the "Health for All, Taiwan Can Help" march, urging the World Health Organization (WHO) to grant Taiwan participation. ...
The instability comes as the party tries to refresh its brand after six years of being part of a right-wing, pro-imperialist government with both the Labour Party and, from 2017-2020, the far-right NZ First Party. ...
Based on the latest Treasury forecasts, New Zealand Government debt will tick above $90,000 per household for the first time ever at 10pm today, Sunday 19 May 2024. The Taxpayers’ Union is calling it “$90k Debt Day”. Commenting on this, Taxpayers’ ...
Arawata Shane Arawata Shane had wandered long In the wild tangled hills of the West Coast. He came to a stop on the mighty range And looked down at the wide river flats. He breathed in the clean air, And he took in the shadows playing across The face of ...
SPECIAL REPORT:Islands Business in Suva Today is the 24th anniversary of renegade and failed businessman George Speight’s coup in 2000 Fiji. The elected coalition government headed by Mahendra Chaudhry, the first and only Indo-Fijian prime minister of Fiji, was held hostage at gunpoint for 56 days in the country’s ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist and Kelvin Anthony, RNZ Pacific digital journalist Police have used tear gas and stun grenades on rioters at an airport near Nouméa as the chaos in New Caledonia stretched into its sixth day. Five people, including two police officers, have died and hundreds of ...
Asia Pacific ReportThe global human rights watchdog Amnesty International has called on France to not “misuse” a crackdown in the ongoing unrest in the non-self-governing French Pacific territory of Kanaky New Caledonia in the wake of a controversial vote by the French Parliament to adopt a bill changing the territory’s ...
A major provider of school lunches fears the government's new $3 limit for most students will see them eating more pre-packaged and processed food. ...
The star of Dark City: The Cleaner takes us through his life in TV, including the VHS revolution and the John Campbell impression that started it all. Best known for his comedic roles, Cohen Holloway says he struggled at times to maintain the stone cold facade of serial killer on ...
David Hill remembers an old friend, who you’ve probably never heard of. My friend Doug never travelled; he had little interest in the world beyond his own tiny rural town. I’ve rarely known anyone who radiated such contentment. Doug (I’ll call him that) died in March. You won’t know him. ...
Some of the earliest photos of life in Aotearoa are on display at Auckland Museum right now – but the identities of some of the people in them are a mystery.What was it like to be one of the first people in New Zealand to have their photo taken? ...
Since its founding almost a decade ago, Featherston Booktown has grown into one of the country’s most interesting and idiosyncratic literary events. Erin Banks reports from the audience. “Come in, have you had lunch? I’m about to make a cheese toastie.” Mary Biggs, operations manager of Featherston Booktown Karukatea Festival, ...
After 33 years abroad, Loveni Enari recently returned to Aotearoa and Samoa in what a friend joked was an “existential crisis”. He learnt and re-learnt so much about his family, friends and both countries. Almost as an afterthought, he got a Samoan tatau. This is his story. (Accompanying it are ...
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So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
Might be bullshit, might be the truth:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/20/9-ridiculous-defenses-of-melania-trumps-plagiarized-speech-that-now-look-even-more-ridiculous/
I read somewhere online today (can’t find it now) that it was the other way round but who knows. As you say: Might be bullshit, might be the truth
No, not like that – a position on the White House speech writing staff.
seems political speeches are rife with plagirism…
https://www.facebook.com/donaldtrumppresident/videos/vb.451075468389015/606879372808623/?type=2&theater
sort of makes sense as most are cliche after cliche. Cannot avoid it really.
What a blond bimbo( Melania) is and what phonys ( American spelling) the Americans are. Their democractic system is also phony
for giggles
Make no mistake: National Party values are on display again.
As Blabbermouth Lusk made clear years ago, electoral amnesia is their only hope.
Morgan!!!
During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%).
Believe it or not!
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6902-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2016-201607211639?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention&utm_content=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention+CID_d86de7e85c0f574405361989f1086b06&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=National%20extends%20lead%20over%20Labour%20to%20highest%20in%20over%20a%20year%20as%20Government%20unveils%201%20billion%20housing%20infrastructure%20fund
Let’s see what the next one says, and what others say. I’m guessing it’s a rogue poll.
I’m guessing Labour is simply useless at getting their message across. On the odd occasion they do, the message has no appeal.
Go away troll.
Wow. Burn from MS. I keep forgetting that dissenting views are not permitted in the echo-chamber.
I thought you would be happy that Little is finally starting to make Cunliffe look good.
Still trolling then 🙄
Why do you encourage them Micky and Weka …. it is obvious what they are and do not need replies 🙂
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
Last month it was a good poll result for Lab/Gr weka…was that a rogue poll as well? 🙂
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Seems to make no sense at all.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
i think Eyre that you are wrong.
This is Phil Twyford today on radio in regards to the WINZ Garage Housing Issue 🙂
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201809075/auckland-housing-crisis-reaches-new-low-labour
but i agree they must be useless.
Where is little?. He’s in the news nearly every day when parliament is sitting. Since the recess nothing.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
Well Key has given NZ the gift that money can’t buy this month – his absence.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
Did I miss anything?
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
Yes you did. It is a real rogue. Go outside and talk to ordinary people and work out if they think the Government is doing a good job.
And then follow it up with asking them if they think Andrew Little and Labour would do a better job.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The danger is that people are simply going to hold their nose on Election Day and vote English/Key.
Can’t be right?? Bomber Bradbury had his “secret poll” with the Lab/Gr collation leading the Nats…
Colonial Vipers guess of 25% for Lab in 2017 seems on target.
edit: should be Lab/Gr “coalition”
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
Effect of the Labour/Greens MOU now being felt. Also National’s proactive *cough* steps in the housing market.
Nope it is clearly a rogue.
Micky, do you have any links handy to something credible discussing what rogue polls are?
edit, found this which explains margins of error and why one in 20 polls will be a rogue.
http://thestandard.org.nz/on-the-perils-of-polls/
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
Yeah some did. LAB 25% +/-3% IMO.
” Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling.”
Nothing particularly “mysterious” about it. UMR have been polling monthly since the 1990s:
http://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-21072016/#comment-1206926
Does, however, boast a track record for accuracy.
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Just have to wait and see.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Every month I’ve been saying this.
FORGET THE DAMN POLLS!!!
Outside of an election, they are nothing more than a sad tool of lazy journalists too slack to do any real journalism.
Do I need to mention the scummy PR people trying to set the agenda for there client.
While I agree the only poll that counts is on election day, polling is a very important tool used by ALL political parties.
“Forget the damn polls” is not an advisable strategy, but feel free to suggest it to your mates!
I think swordfish in 4.7 sums it up pretty well…lets wait and see
http://dark-mountain.net/blog/the-dithering-age-holocene-anthropocene-and-chthulucene/
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
This.
Very helpful article, thanks.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
Interesting. Where was this reported?
Hooton on Nine to Noon and then again on twitter I think (for whatever that is worth).
http://thestandard.org.nz/nationals-rodeo/#comment-1203811
lol
I see you’re maintaining your usual standards of cogent argument and insightful debate. Keep it up.
53% of this country are benefiting from Key’s regime?
Give me a break.
53% of this country uninterested in whatever new things that Labour/Greens MOU was supposed to bring. Which since its signing has been fuck all.
LAB/GR needed to roll out multiple massive new policy together week to week to show that they were serious about teaming up.
The Sun and the Herald are despicable rags.
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/21/sun-newspaper-just-victim-brutal-murder-absolutely-despicable-tweets-images/
And the Herald in New Zealand has followed the Sun’s lead….
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11678471
What a shameful rag.
Saw that and did not click. MSM are despicable.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
as one of that 65% I am quite happy to see the prices reduce and it will occur whether it is forced or not
+1
L/Greens aren’t on property, they’re on housing. There is a difference.
What’s the difference? Foreign ownership of our farms not part of the platform?
Are you saying you don’t understand the difference between how to house people and how to make money from property investment?
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Don’t both the Greens and Labour say they want to slow immigration and overseas investment?
Slow? By how much? 10%? 20%?
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election………….UMR…….CB………RR……….RM………HD……….FI
Nat ……47 ………………… 47 ……… 45 ……… 45 ………. 47 ……… 48 …….. 48
Lab …….25………………… 25 ……… 25 ……… 26 ……… 24 …….. 26 …….. 26
Green ..11 ………………… 13 ………. 12 ……… 14 ……… 14 ……….11…….. 12
NZF ….. 8.7 ………………..7.5 ……… 8.0 …….. 7.1……… 8.0 …….. 8.4 ……. 6.6
Cons ……. 4.0 …………….. 4.0 ……… 4.4 ……… 4.9 ……… 3.5 ……. 3.3 ……..4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……………… 1.5 ………1.6 ………. 1.1………. 1.5 ……. 1.1 …….. 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 ………………. 1.4 ……… 1.8 ………. 2.0 ……… 1.0 …….. 1.0 …….. 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……………….. 0.4 ……… 0.6 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.5 …….. 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 ……………………. 0 ……… 0 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.2 …….. 0
UMR performed similarly well in its final pre-Election Polls in 2008 and 2011.
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
http://thestandard.org.nz/garner-tweets-on-what-he-was-told-was-latest-umr-poll-result/
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures:
2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now)
and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
A slightly clearer version of the above table:
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election ………………………..Final Round of Polls……………………………………
Nat ….…47 ……..UMR 47 …..… CB 45 ….……RR 45 ………. RM 47 .…..…HD 48 …….…FI 48
Lab …….25…….…UMR 25 …..…CB 25 ….……RR 26 ………RM 24 …..…..HD 26 ………..FI 26
Green ..11 …….…UMR 13 …..…CB 12 ….……RR 14 ………RM 14 …….….HD 11…..….. FI 12
NZF …… 8.7 ….….UMR 7.5 ……CB 8.0 …..…..RR 7.1………RM 8.0 ….…..HD 8.4 …….….FI 6.6
Cons …. 4.0 ….….UMR 4.0 …….CB 4.4 …….…RR 4.9 ………RM 3.5 ….….HD 3.3 …..…..FI 4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……..UMR 1.5 ….…CB 1.6 ……….RR 1.1……….RM 1.5 ……..HD 1.1 …..…..FI 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 …..…UMR 1.4 ……..CB 1.8 ……….RR 2.0 ………RM 1.0 ….…..HD 1.0 …..…..FI 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……UMR 0.4 …..…CB 0.6 ……….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.5 …..…..FI 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 …….UMR 0 ….…..…CB 0 …….….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.2 …….…..FI 0