So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
In working with Melania Trump on her recent First Lady speech, we discussed many people who inspired her and messages she wanted to share with the American people,” Trump staffer Meredith McIver said. “A person she has always liked is Michelle Obama. Over the phone, she read me some passages from Mrs. Obama’s speech as examples. I wrote them down and later included some of the phrasing in the draft that ultimately became the final speech. I did not check Mrs. Obama’s speeches.
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
What The Sun newspaper just did to this victim of a brutal murder is absolutely despicable
The Sun has plumbed new depths in a desperate attempt to prop up its falling readership – but even by its own disgraceful standards, this is low.
On Wednesday, it reported the tragic death 20-year old India Chipchase.
Chipchase had studied health and social care at college, and worked as a part-time barmaid at the Collingtree pub in Northampton.
Her former lecturer at Northampton college, Jo Forester, paid tribute to Chipchase, saying:
‘Within college she was a well-liked member of her group by both staff and students for her caring nature and sense of humour. She was a hardworking, intelligent young lady who possessed the maturity to complete all the targets she set herself regarding her college work and placement experiences.’
However, the Sun chose not to focus on the positive aspects of the 20-year old’s life. Instead, it chose to turn her murder into clickbait.
Here is the tweet in question – and The Canary politely asks its readers not to click through to the article, as the Sun does not deserve the additional readers:
Woman ‘drank six Jagerbombs in ten minutes on the night she was raped and murdered’.
To say that the Sun is implying that Chipchase’s alcohol consumption had something to do with her rape and murder would be an understatement. This is a shameless example of the newspaper’s attitude towards women, and symptomatic of the entrenched bigotry and misogyny that exists at the tabloid.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures: 2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now) and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
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April 30 was going to be the day we’d be calling Mum from London to wish her a happy birthday. Then it became the day we would be going to St. Paul's at Evensong to remember her. The aim of the cathedral builders was to find a way to make their ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Can’t remember the last book by a Kiwi author you read? Think the NZ government should spend less on the arts in favor of helping the homeless? If so, as far as Newsroom is concerned, you probably deserve to be called a cultural ignoramus ...
Eric Crampton writes – Grudges are bad. Better to move on. But it can be fun to keep a couple of really trivial ones, so you’re not tempted to have other ones. For example, because of the rootkit fiasco of 2005, no Sony products in our household. ...
A new report warns an estimated third of the adult population have unmet need for health care.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāHere’s the six key things I learned about Aotaroa’s political economy this week around housing, climate and poverty:Politics - Three opinion polls confirmed support for PM Christopher Luxon ...
Today is May the fourth. Which was just a regular day when my mother took me to see the newly released Star Wars at the Odeon in Rotorua. The queue was right around the corner. Some years later this day became known as Star Wars Day, the date being a ...
Buzz from the Beehive Much more media attention is being paid to something Winston Peters said about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr than to a speech he delivered to the New Zealand China Council. One word is missing from the speech: AUKUS. But AUKUS loomed large in his considerations ...
Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be ...
The annual list of who's been bribing our politicians is out, and journalists will no doubt be poring over it to find the juiciest and dirtiest bribes. The government's fast-track invite list is likely to be a particular focus, and we already know of one company on the list which ...
In the weeks after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Southern Israel I wrote about the possible 2nd, 3rd and even 4th order effects of the conflict. These included new fronts being opened in the West Bank (with Hamas), Golan … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – It is one of the oldest truisms that there is never a good time for MPs to get a pay rise. This week’s announcement of pay raises of around 2.8% backdated to last October could hardly have come at a worse time, with the ...
David Farrar writes – Newshub reports: Newshub can reveal a fresh allegation of intimidation against Green MP Julie-Anne Genter. Genter is subject to a disciplinary process for aggressively waving a book in the face of National Minister Matt Doocey in the House – but it’s not the first time ...
The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Photo by Jari Hytönen on UnsplashIt’s that new day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm. Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed the total dollar savings target from public sector cuts has been met, but the reductions have not been felt evenly across public agencies. Government departments were told to make savings set at 6.5 percent or 7.5 percent where headcount had grown by more than ...
The District Plan is a blueprint for a bigger, better Wellington, through tens of thousands of new apartments and townhouses and a new approach to urban growth. Joel MacManus lays out the vision. The process of putting together Wellington’s new District Plan has been long and excruciating. As a city, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leah Williams Veazey, ARC DECRA Research Fellow, University of Sydney DavideAngelini/Shutterstock In the 2007 film The Bucket List Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman play two main characters who respond to their terminal cancer diagnoses by rejecting experimental treatment. Instead, they go ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Singh, Professor of Agri-Food Biotechnology, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences at the University of Melbourne., The University of Melbourne Tanja Esser/Shutterstock Australia’s vital agriculture sector will be hit hard by steadily rising global temperatures. Our climate is already ...
The Acumen Edelman Trust barometer reported that New Zealand’s political trust score now sits below the global average, a topic explored in a recent discussion paper by Maxim Institute. ...
Greenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman says, "The Fast-Track Bill is the most damaging piece of environmental legislation any Government has introduced in living memory. People are angry, and it’s time to march." ...
The school lunches programme has been retained – and will be extended to some preschoolers. So how is it going to cost $107 million less? To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. The minister with many hats David Seymour wears a number of hats, but this week ...
“Show us the bird,” I found myself muttering at times while reading Hard by the Cloud House by Peter Walker, a deeply thoughtful, often hilarious, at times rambling – but somehow delightfully so – search for the story of a big bird. But not just any bird: the bird. This ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition DPVUE .images/Shutterstock Your home was probably designed for a climate that no longer exists. As long as humanity continues to burn fossil fuel, padding the heat-trapping blanket of gases in Earth’s atmosphere, the ...
A senior lawyer has filed a complaint about tikanga becoming a required law school module. Law lecturer Carwyn Jones explains what he’s getting wrong. “…the first law of Aotearoa, a law that served the needs of tangata whenua for a thousand years before the arrival of tauiwi.”– Ani Mikaere ...
In 2019, an Auckland woman woke up from surgery to find that she had undergone a treatment she didn’t consent to. She tells Alex Casey about her experience. From her very first period at the age of 14, Laura experienced “debilitating” levels of pain that forced her to withdraw from ...
Comment: Concerns about the state of the economy are creeping up to the top of firms’ list of challenges. That’s evident in both surveys and the tone of our recent client discussions. Skimming the past few weeks of eco-news, it’s not hard to see why. – Retail card spending fell ...
Opinion: Could former co-leader James Shaw still make a difference to working with National? The post How the Greens could be contenders appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Opinion: What if we got rid of our existing drug laws and replaced them with a new law that legalised and carefully regulated all psychoactive substances, from cannabis to MDMA, methamphetamine and LSD to magic mushrooms? And which also included legal drugs such as alcohol and nicotine. “Wow,” you might ...
In the gloom following director-general Al Morrison’s job cuts in 2013, the Department of Conservation restructured its operations arm. Eleven conservancy districts were whittled into six new “conservation delivery” regions, under which the Rēkohu/Wharekauri/Chatham Islands area, comprising 40 scattered islands more than 800km east of Christchurch, was tethered to the ...
One of th e country’s top litigation lawyers says New Zealand is seeing a lift in court action between companies. Chapman Tripp partner Justin Graham, who oversees a team of around 80 litigation specialists, says the courts are now so log-jammed that it’s taking over two years to get cases ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government is talking up the crucial role of gas as a transition fuel “through to 2050 and beyond”. In a gas strategy to be released on Thursday, the government envisages the fuel’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week the government will again next try to get its legislation through to deal with non-citizens who won’t cooperate with efforts to deport them. The bill, which the opposition and crossbench refused to rush ...
A long-term project that will set out an alternative vision for Aotearoa that looks beyond the narrow confines of the policy straight jacket adopted by successive governments. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bree Hurst, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, QUT, Queensland University of Technology TK Kurikawa/Shutterstock A much-awaited report into Coles and Woolworths has found what many customers have long believed – Australia’s big supermarkets engage in price gouging. What started ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney The Albanese government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its migration amendment bill. The report, handed down yesterday by a senate committee that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Lobbying is at the heart of government. Who has access to and influence over key government officials shapes the decisions governments make – and how they make them. The ability to influence ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Myfany Turpin, Associate Professor, Ethnomusicology, Linguistics and Ethnobiology, University of Sydney The act representing Australia at this year’s Eurovision contest has sadly not qualified for the grand final. Yet for Zaachariaha Fielding and Michael Ross, the duo that makes up Electric Fields, ...
In announcing changes to the school lunches programme, David Seymour said kids would no longer be served ‘woke’ foods. To clear up any confusion, The Spinoff has compiled a guide to the wokeness levels of some common food items. Apple = NOT WOKE Avocado = WOKE Avocado, smashed = EVEN ...
The Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Minglu Chen, Senior Lecturer, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney Robert Way/Shutterstock As the past few years have illustrated so clearly, the Australia-China relationship is complicated. As such, it is crucial for Australians to develop a more nuanced understanding of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mariana Campbell, Research Lecturer, Conservation, Charles Darwin University Marilyn Connell Australian freshwater turtles are facing an alarming trend. Almost half of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. The Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) is one of Australia’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debbie Passey, Digital Health Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Barbaro, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, Psychologist, La Trobe University Unsplash We’ve come a long way in terms of understanding that everyone thinks, interacts and experiences the world differently. In the past, autistic people, people with attention deficit hyperactive disorder ...
PNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s deputy opposition leader James Nomane has accused the government of “reckless economic management” that has forced devaluation to manage loan repayments in foreign currency and placate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prime Minister James Marape “must stop lying to the people of Papua New Guinea”, ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books.The book I wish I’d writtenI have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...
The final decision on the Wellington District Plan makes it official: High-density housing is legal across most of Wellington. Housing minister Chris Bishop has announced his decision on the Wellington District Plan, approving a series of amendments to radically upzone most of Wellington, allowing tens of thousands of new townhouses ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...
RNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...
With funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown.(Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...
Responding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...
Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations?Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...
The Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...
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So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
Might be bullshit, might be the truth:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/20/9-ridiculous-defenses-of-melania-trumps-plagiarized-speech-that-now-look-even-more-ridiculous/
I read somewhere online today (can’t find it now) that it was the other way round but who knows. As you say: Might be bullshit, might be the truth
No, not like that – a position on the White House speech writing staff.
seems political speeches are rife with plagirism…
https://www.facebook.com/donaldtrumppresident/videos/vb.451075468389015/606879372808623/?type=2&theater
sort of makes sense as most are cliche after cliche. Cannot avoid it really.
What a blond bimbo( Melania) is and what phonys ( American spelling) the Americans are. Their democractic system is also phony
for giggles
Make no mistake: National Party values are on display again.
As Blabbermouth Lusk made clear years ago, electoral amnesia is their only hope.
Morgan!!!
During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%).
Believe it or not!
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6902-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2016-201607211639?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention&utm_content=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention+CID_d86de7e85c0f574405361989f1086b06&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=National%20extends%20lead%20over%20Labour%20to%20highest%20in%20over%20a%20year%20as%20Government%20unveils%201%20billion%20housing%20infrastructure%20fund
Let’s see what the next one says, and what others say. I’m guessing it’s a rogue poll.
I’m guessing Labour is simply useless at getting their message across. On the odd occasion they do, the message has no appeal.
Go away troll.
Wow. Burn from MS. I keep forgetting that dissenting views are not permitted in the echo-chamber.
I thought you would be happy that Little is finally starting to make Cunliffe look good.
Still trolling then 🙄
Why do you encourage them Micky and Weka …. it is obvious what they are and do not need replies 🙂
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
Last month it was a good poll result for Lab/Gr weka…was that a rogue poll as well? 🙂
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Seems to make no sense at all.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
i think Eyre that you are wrong.
This is Phil Twyford today on radio in regards to the WINZ Garage Housing Issue 🙂
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201809075/auckland-housing-crisis-reaches-new-low-labour
but i agree they must be useless.
Where is little?. He’s in the news nearly every day when parliament is sitting. Since the recess nothing.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
Well Key has given NZ the gift that money can’t buy this month – his absence.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
Did I miss anything?
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
Yes you did. It is a real rogue. Go outside and talk to ordinary people and work out if they think the Government is doing a good job.
And then follow it up with asking them if they think Andrew Little and Labour would do a better job.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The danger is that people are simply going to hold their nose on Election Day and vote English/Key.
Can’t be right?? Bomber Bradbury had his “secret poll” with the Lab/Gr collation leading the Nats…
Colonial Vipers guess of 25% for Lab in 2017 seems on target.
edit: should be Lab/Gr “coalition”
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
Effect of the Labour/Greens MOU now being felt. Also National’s proactive *cough* steps in the housing market.
Nope it is clearly a rogue.
Micky, do you have any links handy to something credible discussing what rogue polls are?
edit, found this which explains margins of error and why one in 20 polls will be a rogue.
http://thestandard.org.nz/on-the-perils-of-polls/
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
Yeah some did. LAB 25% +/-3% IMO.
” Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling.”
Nothing particularly “mysterious” about it. UMR have been polling monthly since the 1990s:
http://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-21072016/#comment-1206926
Does, however, boast a track record for accuracy.
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Just have to wait and see.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Every month I’ve been saying this.
FORGET THE DAMN POLLS!!!
Outside of an election, they are nothing more than a sad tool of lazy journalists too slack to do any real journalism.
Do I need to mention the scummy PR people trying to set the agenda for there client.
While I agree the only poll that counts is on election day, polling is a very important tool used by ALL political parties.
“Forget the damn polls” is not an advisable strategy, but feel free to suggest it to your mates!
I think swordfish in 4.7 sums it up pretty well…lets wait and see
http://dark-mountain.net/blog/the-dithering-age-holocene-anthropocene-and-chthulucene/
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
This.
Very helpful article, thanks.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
Interesting. Where was this reported?
Hooton on Nine to Noon and then again on twitter I think (for whatever that is worth).
http://thestandard.org.nz/nationals-rodeo/#comment-1203811
lol
I see you’re maintaining your usual standards of cogent argument and insightful debate. Keep it up.
53% of this country are benefiting from Key’s regime?
Give me a break.
53% of this country uninterested in whatever new things that Labour/Greens MOU was supposed to bring. Which since its signing has been fuck all.
LAB/GR needed to roll out multiple massive new policy together week to week to show that they were serious about teaming up.
The Sun and the Herald are despicable rags.
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/21/sun-newspaper-just-victim-brutal-murder-absolutely-despicable-tweets-images/
And the Herald in New Zealand has followed the Sun’s lead….
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11678471
What a shameful rag.
Saw that and did not click. MSM are despicable.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
as one of that 65% I am quite happy to see the prices reduce and it will occur whether it is forced or not
+1
L/Greens aren’t on property, they’re on housing. There is a difference.
What’s the difference? Foreign ownership of our farms not part of the platform?
Are you saying you don’t understand the difference between how to house people and how to make money from property investment?
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Don’t both the Greens and Labour say they want to slow immigration and overseas investment?
Slow? By how much? 10%? 20%?
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election………….UMR…….CB………RR……….RM………HD……….FI
Nat ……47 ………………… 47 ……… 45 ……… 45 ………. 47 ……… 48 …….. 48
Lab …….25………………… 25 ……… 25 ……… 26 ……… 24 …….. 26 …….. 26
Green ..11 ………………… 13 ………. 12 ……… 14 ……… 14 ……….11…….. 12
NZF ….. 8.7 ………………..7.5 ……… 8.0 …….. 7.1……… 8.0 …….. 8.4 ……. 6.6
Cons ……. 4.0 …………….. 4.0 ……… 4.4 ……… 4.9 ……… 3.5 ……. 3.3 ……..4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……………… 1.5 ………1.6 ………. 1.1………. 1.5 ……. 1.1 …….. 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 ………………. 1.4 ……… 1.8 ………. 2.0 ……… 1.0 …….. 1.0 …….. 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……………….. 0.4 ……… 0.6 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.5 …….. 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 ……………………. 0 ……… 0 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.2 …….. 0
UMR performed similarly well in its final pre-Election Polls in 2008 and 2011.
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
http://thestandard.org.nz/garner-tweets-on-what-he-was-told-was-latest-umr-poll-result/
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures:
2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now)
and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
A slightly clearer version of the above table:
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election ………………………..Final Round of Polls……………………………………
Nat ….…47 ……..UMR 47 …..… CB 45 ….……RR 45 ………. RM 47 .…..…HD 48 …….…FI 48
Lab …….25…….…UMR 25 …..…CB 25 ….……RR 26 ………RM 24 …..…..HD 26 ………..FI 26
Green ..11 …….…UMR 13 …..…CB 12 ….……RR 14 ………RM 14 …….….HD 11…..….. FI 12
NZF …… 8.7 ….….UMR 7.5 ……CB 8.0 …..…..RR 7.1………RM 8.0 ….…..HD 8.4 …….….FI 6.6
Cons …. 4.0 ….….UMR 4.0 …….CB 4.4 …….…RR 4.9 ………RM 3.5 ….….HD 3.3 …..…..FI 4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……..UMR 1.5 ….…CB 1.6 ……….RR 1.1……….RM 1.5 ……..HD 1.1 …..…..FI 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 …..…UMR 1.4 ……..CB 1.8 ……….RR 2.0 ………RM 1.0 ….…..HD 1.0 …..…..FI 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……UMR 0.4 …..…CB 0.6 ……….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.5 …..…..FI 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 …….UMR 0 ….…..…CB 0 …….….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.2 …….…..FI 0