So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
In working with Melania Trump on her recent First Lady speech, we discussed many people who inspired her and messages she wanted to share with the American people,” Trump staffer Meredith McIver said. “A person she has always liked is Michelle Obama. Over the phone, she read me some passages from Mrs. Obama’s speech as examples. I wrote them down and later included some of the phrasing in the draft that ultimately became the final speech. I did not check Mrs. Obama’s speeches.
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
What The Sun newspaper just did to this victim of a brutal murder is absolutely despicable
The Sun has plumbed new depths in a desperate attempt to prop up its falling readership – but even by its own disgraceful standards, this is low.
On Wednesday, it reported the tragic death 20-year old India Chipchase.
Chipchase had studied health and social care at college, and worked as a part-time barmaid at the Collingtree pub in Northampton.
Her former lecturer at Northampton college, Jo Forester, paid tribute to Chipchase, saying:
‘Within college she was a well-liked member of her group by both staff and students for her caring nature and sense of humour. She was a hardworking, intelligent young lady who possessed the maturity to complete all the targets she set herself regarding her college work and placement experiences.’
However, the Sun chose not to focus on the positive aspects of the 20-year old’s life. Instead, it chose to turn her murder into clickbait.
Here is the tweet in question – and The Canary politely asks its readers not to click through to the article, as the Sun does not deserve the additional readers:
Woman ‘drank six Jagerbombs in ten minutes on the night she was raped and murdered’.
To say that the Sun is implying that Chipchase’s alcohol consumption had something to do with her rape and murder would be an understatement. This is a shameless example of the newspaper’s attitude towards women, and symptomatic of the entrenched bigotry and misogyny that exists at the tabloid.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures: 2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now) and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
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Ele Ludemann writes – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
What was that judge thinking?Peter Williams writes – That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop:Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
Buzz from the BeehiveThe text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary. It can be quickly analysed ...
For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
Questions need to be asked on both sides of the worldPeter Williams writes – The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop:The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
TL;DR:Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
Bob Edlin writes – The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
The New Zealand public voted for a change in direction at the 2023 general election and that is exactly what this coalition government has been delivering in its first 100 days. There was an immediate focus on the economy, easing the cost of living, cracking down on law and order ...
The Government has left the health system as an afterthought, announcing half-baked targets at the last minute of their 100-day plan, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
Kiwis are still waiting for their promised cost of living support after 100 days of a National Government that is taking us backwards, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
100 days of National taking NZ backwardsThe National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
The Government must commit to funding free and healthy school lunches, as thousands of people sign the petition to keep them, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti says. ...
If the Government was serious about moving families into public housing, they would build more houses so there is actually somewhere for people to go. ...
The free and healthy school lunches programme feeds our kids, helps them to learn, and saves families money – but it is at risk under this Government, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
The Government’s proposed changes to Firearms Prohibition Orders (FPO) add almost nothing new and are merely an attempt to distract from its plans to loosen gun laws, police spokesperson Ginny Andersen and justice spokesperson Dr Duncan Webb said. ...
The great Victorian era English politician Lord Macauley stood in the British House of Parliament and said, "The gallery in which the reporters sit has become a fourth estate of the realm".He understood and outlined even way back then, the significant role and influence media have in a democracy. ...
The government’s attack on Māori health this week is committing tangata-whenua to a premature death, says Te Pāti Māori. “The government have begun their onslaught on Māori health with the abolishment of the Māori Health Authority and smokefree laws in the same day” said health spokesperson and co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. ...
"The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April. ...
Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand. Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships. “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland Acknowledgements and opening Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says. “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024 Acknowledgements and opening Morena, Nga Mihi Nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country. “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week. “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee. “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today. “The Amendment Paper represents ...
Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level. “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024. “Lower fruit and vege ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction. Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness. It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology. It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says he is looking forward to the day when three key water projects in Northland are up and running, unlocking the full potential of land in the region. Mr Jones attended a community event at the site of the Otawere reservoir near Kerikeri on Friday. ...
Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
Sport and Recreation Minister Chris Bishop will travel to Switzerland today to attend an Executive Committee meeting and Symposium of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Mr Bishop will then travel on to London where he will attend a series of meetings in his capacity as Infrastructure Minister. “New Zealanders believe ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Lupton, SHARP Professor, Vitalities Lab, Centre for Social Research in Health and Social Policy Centre, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society, UNSW Sydney kitzcorner/Shutterstock The assertion from Queensland’s chief health officer John Gerrard that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock Why are musicians so keen to get played on the radio? It can’t be because of the money. In Australia they are paid at rates so low they ...
"Farmers make a point not to tell our urban cousins how to live, yet Chlöe from central Auckland is hell-bent on having her say about farmers," says ACT Rural Communities spokesman Mark Cameron. “On her first day in the House as Green ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. It’s been a tumultuous time in politics in recent months, as the new National-led Government has driven through its “First 100 Day programme”. During this period there’s been a handful of opinion polls, which overall just ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand Getty Images/Gerald Corsi In the latest move to reform environmental laws in New Zealand, the coalition government has introduced a bill to fast-track consenting processes for projects deemed to ...
Uber has argued it does not have as much control over drivers as the unions suggest, and wants a judgment ruling that drivers are employees and not contractors set aside and sent back to the Employment Court. The 2022 ruling followed a three-week hearing in which four drivers sought to ...
What can and can’t be purchased by disabled people or their carers has been slashed in an effort by the Ministry of Disabled People Whaikaha to save money. The purchasing guidelines, a set of rules that sets out what can be purchased using the various streams of Government disability funding, ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Tod Wright and Hien Nguyen, Fiscal incidence in New Zealand: The effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes in tax year 2018/19 . Analyses of the distributional impact of taxation and government ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Cory Davis, Boston Hart and Benjamin Stubbing, Household cost-of-living impacts from the Emissions Trading Scheme and using transfers to mitigate regressive outcomes . This Analytical Note ...
A coalition of public transport and climate organisations, united as ‘Transport for All’, is actively opposing the government’s transport proposals. The draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) includes plans for higher fares for public transport, ...
Greater Wellington is inviting feedback on proposed changes to its Revenue and Financing Policy. The Revenue and Financing Policy covers the Council’s various sources of funding, and how the cost of services is shared across the region. This includes ...
Labour has conceded it could have done more to deal with disruptive state housing tenants while in government but says the current coalition is going too far. ...
The band has asked their record label to issue a cease and desist to stop the NZ First leader using their 1997 hit to support his ‘misguided political views’. “I get knocked down, but I get up again,” blared through the speakers on Sunday as Winston Peters took the stage ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Food rationing is underway in remote areas in Papua New Guinea’s Highlands following torrential rain and flash flooding. More than 20 people have been reported dead in Chimbu Province. In nearby Enga Province, the centre of last month’s massacre, a 15-year-old boy has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University After months of debate and intrigue, the AFL’s 19th and newest team, the Tasmania Devils, finally launched its jumper, logo and colours in Devonport this week. The Devils will wear green, ...
Brannavan Gnanalingam reviews the debut novel by Saraid de Silva.One of the most baffling things for children who move to a new country is what their parents’ (or grandparents’) lives were like prior to moving – for kids in particular, they’re too busy trying to fit in in their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University Narelle Portanier/Binge “If you don’t know who your mob are, you don’t know who you are,” Detective Andrea “Andie” Whitford (played by Leah Purcell) is told early into the new crime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Klein, Associate professor, Australian National University It’s commonly accepted that women do the vast majority of caregiving in Australian society. But less appreciated is that Indigenous women do larger amounts of unpaid care than any other group. Working with the Aboriginal ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a ...
Comment: There has been a striking contrast in trans-Tasman interest about Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Zealand and Australia. While the Australian press has been full of articles about the visit – including his curious decision to meet with former prime minister and China booster Paul Keating ...
After years of pressuring banks and other institutions to stop investing in fossil fuels, climate campaigners are making some progress. So how does divestment work?For years, climate activists have been pushing banks and other big institutions to divest from fossil fuels. New research from climate advocacy group 350 Aotearoa ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. The three young Polynesians are part of a K-pop fan community in Tāmaki Makaurau. It’s one of many that have sprung up worldwide as K-pop has gone ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. This one-off documentary presents three intimate portraits of young Polynesians who are pulled into a Korean cultural phenomenon. K-POLYS is directed by Litia Tuiburelevu, Produced by Hex ...
There’s ample evidence demonstrating free school lunch programmes provide wide benefits across schools, households and communities according to public health researchers. ACT Minister David Seymour wants to reduce the spending on Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
By Wata Shaw in Suva Fiji is facing an exodus of Fijians as many are leaving for overseas seeking employment and education and others are migrating, says Opposition MP Viliame Naupoto. Speaking in Parliament, he said: “His Excellency’s speech (Ratu Wiliame Katonivere) comes after a little over one year of ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming comments from Christopher Luxon this morning recommitting to ‘no new taxes’ as part of Budget 2024. “Mr Luxon’s refusal at the Post-Cabinet press conference yesterday to repeat the ‘no new taxes’ promise ...
SAFE is urgently calling on the Environment Committee to reject the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill, and is urging New Zealanders to rally behind the call. The proposed Bill, currently under consideration with the Environment select committee, ...
Teammates who spend all their time picking fights with spectators are only helpful for the other team, writes Madeleine Chapman. Anyone who has ever played a team sport competitively, particularly as a child and particularly, for some reason, basketball, will know that there’s a lot of politics involved. While there ...
The long-running Wellington music festival is too focused on the Jim Beam-ness and not enough on the Homegrown-ness.There is something about Homegrown that’s difficult to place. A barely perceptible-ness. Like feeling a ghost is watching you from the corner of the room but when you look, there’s nothing there. ...
The latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor reveals that fewer New Zealanders believe crime / law and order is one of the top issues facing our country. In 2018, Ipsos New Zealand started tracking the key issues facing New Zealand. In this wave ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Griffiths, Deputy Program Director, Budgets and Government, Grattan Institute Australia’s political donations rules are woefully inadequate, but donations reform is finally on the agenda. The federal government has signalled its interest in reform and will soon begin briefing MPs on its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University Naiyana Somchitkaeo/Shutterstock A recent study published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine has linked microplastics with risk to human health. The study ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University Global climate records were shattered in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a teacher explains why he and his partner are in frugal mode – and how they’re making it work. Gender: Male Age: 35Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: I am an intermediate school teacher and my partner is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Bendall, Senior Lecturer, Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Australian Catholic University Binge Mary & George, the new British television drama series, depicts the real-life story of Mary Villiers and her son George, and their social climbing at the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining the housing crisis. Read the other articles in the series here. Australian state and federal governments spend money in many ways to ...
The finance minister is denying that there’s a $5.6b shortfall in paying for the government’s campaign promises, including tax cuts. At his post-cabinet press conference yesterday, the PM refused to rule out new taxes to pay for the cuts, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s ...
Kāinga Ora tenants abused by their neighbours are doubting the government's crackdown on disruptive tenants will make a difference on their behaviour. ...
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Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 19 March appeared first on Newsroom. ...
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So a young woman called Ms Meredith McIvor – who fancies herself as a bit of a wordsmith – talked to Melania Trump on the telephone and read out Michelle Obama’s speech to her and Melania said… ‘oooh I like that’ and so Ms McIvor copied Mrs Obama’s speech virtually word for word and Melania Trump read it out at the Republican convention… knowing exactly where the words came from.
And now Ms Meredith McIvor is claiming full culpability. How much to you think they paid her to take the blame?
What I heard was the opposite: Mrs Trump read out some words she liked without saying where they came from, speech-writer noted them and didn’t check where they came from. Very revealing though that when asked about values, the Trump family has to use other people’s words.
Might be bullshit, might be the truth:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/20/9-ridiculous-defenses-of-melania-trumps-plagiarized-speech-that-now-look-even-more-ridiculous/
I read somewhere online today (can’t find it now) that it was the other way round but who knows. As you say: Might be bullshit, might be the truth
No, not like that – a position on the White House speech writing staff.
seems political speeches are rife with plagirism…
https://www.facebook.com/donaldtrumppresident/videos/vb.451075468389015/606879372808623/?type=2&theater
sort of makes sense as most are cliche after cliche. Cannot avoid it really.
What a blond bimbo( Melania) is and what phonys ( American spelling) the Americans are. Their democractic system is also phony
for giggles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Ua53PJlv8&feature=youtu.be
Make no mistake: National Party values are on display again.
As Blabbermouth Lusk made clear years ago, electoral amnesia is their only hope.
Morgan!!!
During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%).
Believe it or not!
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6902-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2016-201607211639?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention&utm_content=Morgan%20Poll%20-%20July%202016%20-%20New%20Zealand%20Voting%20Intention+CID_d86de7e85c0f574405361989f1086b06&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=National%20extends%20lead%20over%20Labour%20to%20highest%20in%20over%20a%20year%20as%20Government%20unveils%201%20billion%20housing%20infrastructure%20fund
Let’s see what the next one says, and what others say. I’m guessing it’s a rogue poll.
I’m guessing Labour is simply useless at getting their message across. On the odd occasion they do, the message has no appeal.
Go away troll.
Wow. Burn from MS. I keep forgetting that dissenting views are not permitted in the echo-chamber.
I thought you would be happy that Little is finally starting to make Cunliffe look good.
Still trolling then 🙄
Why do you encourage them Micky and Weka …. it is obvious what they are and do not need replies 🙂
That’s not really a dissenting view though, is it Ben? It’s just a snarky comment made for no other purpose than to make yourself appear clever. So you fail on both counts.
On the odd occasion they do get a message through, its usually followed by Andy shooting himself in what little is left of his feet. Surely the man has to go now….what is to lose?
Last month it was a good poll result for Lab/Gr weka…was that a rogue poll as well? 🙂
It’s not about whether the poll is good for a party or parties, it’s about the degree of shift and whether that is meaningful. How big was the one last month?
People who understand polling say to look at the poll of polls for trends rather than relying on any single poll. That’s why I’d like to see the next one, or other company polls.
Seems to make no sense at all.
Yes it does. When did you last see any of the Opposition party leaders on the 6pm TV news? Weeks ago, and then only for about 10 seconds each time. I actually recall seeing Andrew Little’s response to one question being cut off after 4 or 5 words so it was impossible to know what the answer really was.
And how often do you see John Key on the TV? Every bloody night. Since I can’t bear the sight of his supercilious dial, it means I can’t watch the news any more.
So, when the sheeples only see John Key and rarely see or hear about anyone else then its not surprising they mindlessly answer National.
Very good point Ann. Little and labour seem to be taking this parliamentary recess very seriously. Haven’t heard from them for weeks. This is a time when we should be hearing from them
It’s all of them Eyre. The MSM are purposefully ignoring them. They put out press releases and make speeches up and down the country and they’re not being reported – or if they are, it’s brief and tucked away somewhere hard to locate.
It’s time someone properly investigated what is going on inside the Fourth Estate.
I think you will find Ann, that little and the labour party are having a break. They release their housing package 1 week before the recess. Then nothing. A recess, when nothing is going on, is a time to make news. I’m sorry but labour is useless.
i think Eyre that you are wrong.
This is Phil Twyford today on radio in regards to the WINZ Garage Housing Issue 🙂
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201809075/auckland-housing-crisis-reaches-new-low-labour
but i agree they must be useless.
Where is little?. He’s in the news nearly every day when parliament is sitting. Since the recess nothing.
actually Little has been traveling the country a bit. IF you would you could look it up. They have some nice FB pages.
don’t worry, nothing Labour will do will be enough for you so you can just resign yourself to voting the incumbent again. After all they are on TV every day telling us why they can’t do anything about housing, migration, the dairy industry, and such. 🙂
And have you heard anything from Metiria Turei, James Shaw, Winston Peters? I think Peters managed to get a single report and that’s all. Sure, they’ve had a few days off during the school holiday period, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t also been out and about as well. Yet the MSM run to the pipsqueak leader of the 0.0% ACT Party, David Seymour for comment about something or another every week.
Well Key has given NZ the gift that money can’t buy this month – his absence.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”
Rogue poll (thanks Weka), 53% of people are stupid, mobile phones/landlines, flawed polling methodology, wait to people get to know Little, media bias, MoU hasn’t bedded in, wait for major policy… etc
Did I miss anything?
And yet the people who have in depth knowledge of polling say to look at the trends not individual polls. Put this in the context of other polls and see how your analysis goes. As far as I can tell all you are doing is using a single poll to push your politics. Nothing wrong with that, but better to be honest about it.
Yes you did. It is a real rogue. Go outside and talk to ordinary people and work out if they think the Government is doing a good job.
And then follow it up with asking them if they think Andrew Little and Labour would do a better job.
+100 JamieB. The Govt may be doing an average job, but there is not a viable alternative. Better the devil you know, and with Little dwelling at 7% it will be hard to get traction.
The danger is that people are simply going to hold their nose on Election Day and vote English/Key.
Can’t be right?? Bomber Bradbury had his “secret poll” with the Lab/Gr collation leading the Nats…
Colonial Vipers guess of 25% for Lab in 2017 seems on target.
edit: should be Lab/Gr “coalition”
The people who answer the phone and have the time to do the poll are petrified their ill-gotten gains will be in jeopardy if they vote anything other than crony Key.
Effect of the Labour/Greens MOU now being felt. Also National’s proactive *cough* steps in the housing market.
Nope it is clearly a rogue.
Micky, do you have any links handy to something credible discussing what rogue polls are?
edit, found this which explains margins of error and why one in 20 polls will be a rogue.
http://thestandard.org.nz/on-the-perils-of-polls/
It is all becoming too unstable Weka. The Roy Morgan always bounces around. Next time it will show another surge to the left.
My personal experience over the past couple of months is that there has been a dramatic change in perception. Kiwis are just tired of the homelessness crisis. It is a difficult issue. National relies on landowners feeling uber wealthy and wanting to keep things the way they are now but everyone knows we are at crisis point.
If and when there is a crash the response will be immediate and brutal on National’s support. In the meantime they are hanging on by their fingertips but already their support has been punctured.
That makes sense micky. I think it’s starting to be reflected in the MSM too, as those people realise how bad things are and how poorly National’s response is.
It doesn’t, however, sound like you are quite so confident in that internal polling that only a couple of days ago had you grinning like a Cheshire cat.
I couldn’t have scripted this better – Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling. Standardistas climb on board with the fervour of the righteous welcoming the second coming, ignoring all that has gone before. And then like perpetual Millerites they wake up to a new rouge/rogue dawn another 10 points behind. It’s a better show than plagiarism at the republican convention.
[lprent: Banned for 3 months.
You really have to wonder about the stupidity of some people. Invent their own groups of people on our site so that they can slag them off with myths that they invent as they withdraw them from their arsecrack. Since these ‘groups’ can’t answer mythic charges, I tend to do it for them – as is discussed in the policy.
I really can’t be bothered with idiotic trolls, especially since I can usually recognise the dimwits online styles and know that they have done this in past years. But as usual I’ll just keep raising bans until I get rid of the rigid and fixed behaviours of those locked in their behavioural straitjackets who can’t change their behaviour ]
Yeah some did. LAB 25% +/-3% IMO.
” Labour leaks and overhypes mysterious internal polling.”
Nothing particularly “mysterious” about it. UMR have been polling monthly since the 1990s:
http://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-21072016/#comment-1206926
Does, however, boast a track record for accuracy.
So you’ll be able to tell me the questions asked, the sample size and the polling period. If not then it certainly is more mysterious than the RM one. Funny how they haven’t been leaked in previous months. Mak
Trouble is that they then go over to KB and boast how they have been banned* … while as I suggested to Mickey and Weka… ignore them they are so obvious … unless they clog up the site Note, I do not know if that is possible :).
* And others say what a wonderful place KB with few rules is and how bad lprent is..
Frankly for the quality of discussion The Standard beats KB hands down.
No wonder its numbers are rising 🙂
Bona Fide Voter reaction to Lab-Green MOU …. or …. Rogue Poll ?
Previous 4 Roy Morgans had placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt. Or, to put it another way, NZF theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.
That was an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.
Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:
Bold = Oppo Lead
Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
(all figures rounded for simplicity)
(IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)
2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points
Roy Morgan Polls
2014
Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
Nov …………Govt by 5
Dec …………Govt by 3
2015
Jan …………..Govt by 12
Feb ………….Govt by 2
March ……..Govt by 2
April ……….. Oppo by 1
May ………..Govt by 14
June ………..Govt by 6
July ………….Oppo by 7
Aug …………Govt by 6
Sep …………Oppo by 5
Oct …………Govt by 3
Nov ………..Govt by 4
Dec ………..Govt by 4
2016
Jan …………Govt by 3
Feb ………..Govt by 2
March ……Oppo by 4
April ………Oppo by 8
May ……….Oppo by 3
June ……….Oppo by 7
July …………Govt by 10
So now this sudden swing to the Right.
Question is: Are we seeing a reaction to the Lab-Green MOU or is it a rogue ?
You can see that in mid-2015 the somewhat notorious Roy Morgan penchant for recording wild swings over consecutive polls was on full display – Govt by 6 points in June / Oppo by 7 (July) / Govt by 6 (Aug) / Oppo by 5 (Sep). Despite that turbulence, however, you can also see that up until March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.
Since October, there’s been a lot less turbulence in the Roy Morgans (apart from the clear swing to the Opposition in March) and we’ve witnessed a sustained period favouring the Opposition parties.
So either this is a bona fide swing back to the Right (and a pretty massive one at that) or Roy Morgan’s penchant for instability has returned with a vengeance. Can’t entirely rule out the possibility that we’re in a reverse scenario to mid-2015 – ie most polls placing the Oppo Bloc ahead, but with RMs recording occasional one-off violent movements to the Right.
Just have to wait and see.
Doesn’t look like rogue – looks like a relaunch. Key returns to NZ to host Biden after long and humiliating absence – polling 39 won’t give him much horsetrading leverage. So he bought a plus 10 – colour me surprised.
Every month I’ve been saying this.
FORGET THE DAMN POLLS!!!
Outside of an election, they are nothing more than a sad tool of lazy journalists too slack to do any real journalism.
Do I need to mention the scummy PR people trying to set the agenda for there client.
While I agree the only poll that counts is on election day, polling is a very important tool used by ALL political parties.
“Forget the damn polls” is not an advisable strategy, but feel free to suggest it to your mates!
I think swordfish in 4.7 sums it up pretty well…lets wait and see
http://dark-mountain.net/blog/the-dithering-age-holocene-anthropocene-and-chthulucene/
Very good, and a beautiful ecological intelligence.
One could argue that the planet as a whole had the capacity to absorb the various environmental destructions that humans have done up until fairly recently. Which doesn’t mean that the previous behaviours were ok, just that they weren’t catastrophic in the way that they are now. However I also agree that we shouldn’t be relying on capitalism is the root of all evil politics, that we need to look back further than that, or deeper than that. My own view is summarised there about the problem (and the point in time) when humans started to conceive of themselves as separate from nature (and the end piece about reconnecting with our kin is fantastic).
I also think it’s a very good point made about not being able to view humanity in relationship to nature, but that we need to look at specific cultures at specific times and see what was/is happening.
Again, the majority of human beings historical have lived in a radically non-exploitative way. Which humans are we talking about when we say that ‘humans are destroying nature’? And furthermore, lets be specific about what is being destroyed and how.
This.
Very helpful article, thanks.
Surely it is less that they were less exploitive but rather there were fewer of us?
Personally I have been affected by rules brought in because obviously there are more people doing things. [ One person solo navigating around the world … now hundreds either doing so or trying similar ]
This is why I see the end of left/right hopefully and a common sense meld of both working to survive on an overcrowded earth.
Bullshit poll, their own internal polling etc have national just inside of 40. Must be Brexit jitters, who cares. Support is super soft – anything this bouncy is dangerous and they know it. The MSM are finally starting to turn on the govt and that’s Key.
Interesting. Where was this reported?
Hooton on Nine to Noon and then again on twitter I think (for whatever that is worth).
http://thestandard.org.nz/nationals-rodeo/#comment-1203811
lol
I see you’re maintaining your usual standards of cogent argument and insightful debate. Keep it up.
53% of this country are benefiting from Key’s regime?
Give me a break.
53% of this country uninterested in whatever new things that Labour/Greens MOU was supposed to bring. Which since its signing has been fuck all.
LAB/GR needed to roll out multiple massive new policy together week to week to show that they were serious about teaming up.
The Sun and the Herald are despicable rags.
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/21/sun-newspaper-just-victim-brutal-murder-absolutely-despicable-tweets-images/
And the Herald in New Zealand has followed the Sun’s lead….
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11678471
What a shameful rag.
Saw that and did not click. MSM are despicable.
I am not surprised at all by this poll. I work with the general public and the vast majority of them are happy to be spoonfed the crap they get from our totally biased media. Politics just doesn’t come in to their daily lives. I don’t think things are going to change until the shit hits the fan, and even then I doubt if the cash strapped disorganised Left could match the natz dirty tricks machine.
Get Labour/Green off property and get Labour/Green onto TPPA.
Do the maths!!!! 65% of Kiwis are property owners!!
They don’t want a 40% property crash, they don’t want capital gains taxes, they don’t want to be forced to insulate houses (it might be right but remember the power saving light bulbs that bought down the formidable Helen Clark, the MSM are still going on about it!).
Houses are to Kiwis like guns are to Americans.
Don’t mess with it.
You can tinker with offshore investors, but onshore property controls are like playing with fire.
The other issue is probably Brexit, has bought about panic about a crash here. Again see the above. Property crash in NZ, not welcome for voters!
as one of that 65% I am quite happy to see the prices reduce and it will occur whether it is forced or not
+1
L/Greens aren’t on property, they’re on housing. There is a difference.
What’s the difference? Foreign ownership of our farms not part of the platform?
Are you saying you don’t understand the difference between how to house people and how to make money from property investment?
@ Pat. That’s not the point I am making, but I very much doubt others share your sentiments. I want a change of government. If Labour and Greens obsesses on this issue of property controls for locals they may lose another election. Can they not actually think of the bigger picture for the greater good?
Hickey said for 15 years that property would reduce, it has not. That is because the darlings of economics failed to forecast in, the record immigration levels that National are refusing to reduce. For 15 years we were sold this lie that immigration levels have no effect on property and immigrants were not buying NZ property.
If they increase supply they need to build up or out. Again most home owners do not want that either. The 1/4 acre and a sea view, is still the dream. Giving this up and paying $125,000 in infrastructure charges per new house so that a restaurant manager or property investor can migrate here is not really a selling point for most locals I know of. Labour and Greens have failed to have a message on this. In fact when you look at stuff from Shearer he seems to be advocating, more zoning changes so that more migrants can come in and buy houses. He seems to be a big fan of generation zero as well as the TPPA.
Another point is, my guess is that 65% of property owners loathe the council too, so by both advocating more council enforcement of everything they are doing a double whammy of hate. I heard that to combat the ghost house empty syndrome, council monitoring of water meters was suggested so those with bachs, if you go away etc, normal homeowners will be penalised for the migrant related crisis.
There is no popular way to solve the housing crisis. They need to leave it to National to explain what they are doing, instead of Labour taking over the bad news and filling every MSM they can with Phil on the subject of all the unpopular steps they want to take.
Don’t both the Greens and Labour say they want to slow immigration and overseas investment?
Slow? By how much? 10%? 20%?
Only Winston has come forward with a concrete proposal which makes sense – cutting back immigration by 90%. (Although I think there should be a bit of flexibility around that number).
“there is no popular way to solve the housing crisis”
beg to differ, building quality accommodation will be very popular….you also speak of “the bigger picture for the greatest good”….with the exception of CC it (housing) doesn’t get any bigger, it impacts every aspect of the economy, tax and finance sector and social outcomes…
you must remember that highly leveraged investors are not the entire market, the majority of houses are still owner occupied (though reducing) and the bulk of them are savvy enough to know this is not sustainable….nimbyism and regulatory disdain is nothing new and is expected regardless of which party is in office….a fact of life. The loss of a bit of cheap debt is not the end of the world for most homeowners and many must be approaching the limit of their appetite for more debt. As noted recently, it has to be repaid sometime
your assertion of the popularity of a1/4 acre pavlova paradise is as dated as the book…the reality is most potential property owners haven’t the time or desire for the work involved in maintaining such a large section as evidenced by the ever reducing plot size.
So some vested interests will make some noise and some will lose their shirts but if the housing crisis is not solved it will crash anyway and currently this is one of the few areas where the opposition are making political points against the government and tellingly are receiving the support of the media and business/banking interests(at last).
Some talk on both the Twittersphere and the Blogosphere that this Roy Morgan proves that recent Labour internal polling by UMR was wayward.
In fact, UMR has performed very well in its immediate pre-Election Polls compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding its own, if not a little more accurate than the others.
Here’s the final round of polling for the 2014 GE:
UMR = Labour’s Internal Pollster – UMR Research
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = 3 News/Newshub Reid Research
RM = Roy Morgan
HD = Herald DigiPoll
FI = Fairfax Ipsos
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election………….UMR…….CB………RR……….RM………HD……….FI
Nat ……47 ………………… 47 ……… 45 ……… 45 ………. 47 ……… 48 …….. 48
Lab …….25………………… 25 ……… 25 ……… 26 ……… 24 …….. 26 …….. 26
Green ..11 ………………… 13 ………. 12 ……… 14 ……… 14 ……….11…….. 12
NZF ….. 8.7 ………………..7.5 ……… 8.0 …….. 7.1……… 8.0 …….. 8.4 ……. 6.6
Cons ……. 4.0 …………….. 4.0 ……… 4.4 ……… 4.9 ……… 3.5 ……. 3.3 ……..4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……………… 1.5 ………1.6 ………. 1.1………. 1.5 ……. 1.1 …….. 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 ………………. 1.4 ……… 1.8 ………. 2.0 ……… 1.0 …….. 1.0 …….. 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……………….. 0.4 ……… 0.6 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.5 …….. 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 ……………………. 0 ……… 0 ……… 0.1 ……… 0.5 …….. 0.2 …….. 0
UMR performed similarly well in its final pre-Election Polls in 2008 and 2011.
Yes but this isn’t an immediately before election year poll, it’s a year out.
The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later, but mickey is spinning last week’s leaked poll the same way he did last time. He even used the same Dylan number
http://thestandard.org.nz/garner-tweets-on-what-he-was-told-was-latest-umr-poll-result/
“The year out poll from 2013 showed a very different picture from what eventuated a year later”
Well, yeah, but then so did the Roy Morgan (and the other Public Polls).
And, actually, both were pretty close with their National figures:
2014 Election ………. July 2013 UMR ……. Early July RM / Late July RM
National…..47%………………….46%……………………47%………………..51%
Just goes to show you have to be cautious about reading too much into the entrails. Past patterns don’t always repeat.
July 2016 UMR
National 41%
July 2016 RM
National 53%
If we assumed the July 2013-to-2014 General Election relationship held today, then you’d have to believe that the Nats will end up:
(1) on 42% at the next Election (ie one point higher than the July UMR – 46% to 47% then / 41% to 42% now)
and, at the same time,
(2) on 53% (ie precisely the same as the current RM – 47% to 47% then / 53% to 53% now).
A slightly clearer version of the above table:
2014 General Election Party-Vote in 1st column
All figures above 10% rounded for simplicity
2014 Election ………………………..Final Round of Polls……………………………………
Nat ….…47 ……..UMR 47 …..… CB 45 ….……RR 45 ………. RM 47 .…..…HD 48 …….…FI 48
Lab …….25…….…UMR 25 …..…CB 25 ….……RR 26 ………RM 24 …..…..HD 26 ………..FI 26
Green ..11 …….…UMR 13 …..…CB 12 ….……RR 14 ………RM 14 …….….HD 11…..….. FI 12
NZF …… 8.7 ….….UMR 7.5 ……CB 8.0 …..…..RR 7.1………RM 8.0 ….…..HD 8.4 …….….FI 6.6
Cons …. 4.0 ….….UMR 4.0 …….CB 4.4 …….…RR 4.9 ………RM 3.5 ….….HD 3.3 …..…..FI 4.5
Maori … 1.3 ……..UMR 1.5 ….…CB 1.6 ……….RR 1.1……….RM 1.5 ……..HD 1.1 …..…..FI 0.9
IMP……. 1.4 …..…UMR 1.4 ……..CB 1.8 ……….RR 2.0 ………RM 1.0 ….…..HD 1.0 …..…..FI 0.9
ACT …….. 0.7 ……UMR 0.4 …..…CB 0.6 ……….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.5 …..…..FI 0.3
UF ………. 0.2 …….UMR 0 ….…..…CB 0 …….….RR 0.1 ………RM 0.5 ….…..HD 0.2 …….…..FI 0