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Dunne reckons next election will be close

Written By: - Date published: 9:22 am, July 26th, 2019 - 48 comments
Categories: death with dignity, drugs, greens, labour, national, nz first, peter dunne, political parties, uncategorized, united future - Tags: , ,

Peter Dunne was one of the more forgettable MPs that we have had.  Through the vagarities of a televised worm and National’s implosion in 2002 he led a small party for a while.  The party fell apart and dwindled into a rump of one.  Dunne eventually held the seat of Ohariu through National’s generosity and performed a sycophantic roll in distorting proportionality and allowing National to keep power.

His time as a minister was highlighted by his refusal to allow Helen Kelly to legally take cannabis derivatives.  This was utter reefer madness by his part.

He has engaged in some post political career reckons. I read his latest and I wondered if he had sneakily tried some medicinal reefer. Because his reckons made no sense.

He thinks that next year’s election will be a nailbiter.

I agree that we should never, ever take anything for granted but Dunne’s analysis is pretty flawed.

He correctly points out that no minor party that has gone into coalition or support has survived the next election.

But he then presumes that both the Greens and NZ First will disappear. Although NZ First’s demise is possible I suspect that the Green’s support is resilient and the increasing focus on environmental issues should ensure that they remain.

And he talks about how these disappearing third party seats will have to be won by Labour. He says this:

For the Labour-led Government, that would be disastrous. Between them, New Zealand First and the Greens hold 17 of the Government’s 63 seats in Parliament. Their removal by failing to cross the threshold would make Labour’s re-election task nigh impossible.

While it would pick up some seats as a consequence it would be most unlikely to pick up the minimum of 15 it would need to remain in government, assuming of course it was to hold all of its current 46 seats. Even the failure of just one of the parties (New Zealand First most likely) to gain 5 percent would make Labour’s task very difficult – it would need to pick up most of the previously allocated New Zealand First seats and then hope the Greens scored at least their number in the present Parliament to have a chance of carrying on in government. 

Those stark realities alone raise the possibility of Labour having to cede electorate seats to its partners (Wellington Central, which it holds, perhaps for the Greens and Whangarei, which it does not hold but has a strong vote in, to New Zealand First) but that would be extremely politically risky for all three parties given that they have piously railed against such arrangements in the past. The current Government has even talked of its intention to remove the one-seat threshold altogether, although that talk has fallen eerily quiet in recent months.

For National, on the other hand, that scenario is far more attractive. Again, assuming it were to hold all its current seats, regain Botany, and see ACT over the line again in Epsom, it would need to win just four of the nine current New Zealand First/Greens seats to be able to form a government.

What Dunne fails to mention and appreciate is that current polling has Labour at 42% and National at 38%.  This would give Labour 63 seats out of a 120 seat Parliament.  In fact Dunne studiously ignores current polling, consistently trots out right wing attack lines against Labour and against Ardern and not once even hints at let alone acknowledges National’s leadership problems.

His final sentence is a doozie:

Whatever its outcome, and it is far too early to make any predictions, a number of existing norms will be shattered.

If it is far too early to make any prediction how can he say that a number of existing norms will be shattered?

48 comments on “Dunne reckons next election will be close”

  1. Dennis Frank 1

    Dunne pretending he ain't done.  A sensible centrist who kept being unable to learn how to use centrism as a political lever.  He'd probably cite his career path as evidence of success, but his centrist party withered on the vine, and history proves he couldn't grow it.

    So predicting minor party failure is probably freudian slippage attempting to ramp itself up into futurism.  Because he couldn't do it, he can't see any basis for them to do it.  Even though the basis is evident.

    For him to be proven right, this govt would have to degenerate into failure sufficiently for the Greens and NZF to seem each partly responsible for the failure.  Currently all three parties in govt are demonstrating sufficient competence to survive.  Equally, something would have to reverse the slide of the Nats, and no such x factor is even on the horizon let alone present.

    Then, as you imply, ignoring current polls in prognosis is rather perverse.  His reasoning is strongest when he cites precedent, yet his analysis past that point amounts to little more than ruminating and what ifs.  Nor is he reading the national mood.

  2. ianmac 2

    Lends weight to the idea that past politicians should pack it in. If he is that wise he would still be a serving MP. 

    Mind you we could get a bizarre result like the Trump/Johnson  becoming Trump/Johnson/Bridges all of them joining hands to sort out the World.

    • Rapunzel 2.1

      Trump/Johnson is ample warning, anything like that is a step way too far for all but the most deluded of NZers.

    • simbit 2.2

      Trump, Johnson, Putin, Erdogan et al. = end of empire. Neither surprising or necessarily scary. Actually in many ways reassuring…

  3. bwaghorn 3

    The fact the the right wing news hags are already attacking Winston almost gaurentee s a labour win.  

    Because national can not win with out another party's help .

    The only thing that could stop that is the Jones boy hes proved hell jump into the nats pocket for a few trinkets. 

    • roy cartland 3.1

      Jones and Mark. Both are much better fits for the NP, in fact I was almost surprised Jones wasn't parachuted in as the new leader. Could still happen…

  4. Rosemary McDonald 4

    This Government is probably our most idealistic since the Third Labour Government of 1972-75, which similarly struggled to convert its bold ideas into practice …

    I agree.

    If you don't agree with that statement mickysavage then provide evidence that there has been significant conversion of 'bold ideas into practice' by this government.

    (And how about doing this without your usual 'attack is the best line of defense' tactic and refrain from shooting the messenger…in this case an MP from a minor party that actually held an electorate seat for many, many years.)

    • Kevin 4.1

      Who are you quoting?

      • Rosemary McDonald 4.1.1

        ffs.  Have you actually read the article mickysavage has linked to? You know, the one Dunne wrote for Newsroom? 

        I make no apologies for not providing a(nother) link to an article that should have automatically have been read by anyone reading an article critiquing said article.

        • Kevin 4.1.1.1

          I would have used the block quote like Mickey did, but that's just me. Chill out and have a good day.

          • Rosemary McDonald 4.1.1.1.1

            Very deft distraction from the actual content of my comment there Kevin, and fool me fell for it.

            Still waiting for evidence from the post's author debunking Dunne's claim…

            This Government is probably our most idealistic since the Third Labour Government of 1972-75, which similarly struggled to convert its bold ideas into practice …

    • McFlock 4.2

      Lab4 was pretty idealistic, and managed to follow through. Sucks but true. Just wasn't left wing in its ideals.

  5. Anne 5

    When it comes to retired politicians and their utterings, it sometimes helps to go back to the past. Dunne was lucky. He swept into parliament in 1984 under the triumphant Lange-led Labour banner. He was a member of the right wing faction and embraced the neoliberal philosophy led by Roger Douglas. Soon after Helen Clark became leader in 1993, he found himself isolated from his parliamentary colleagues so he resigned and became an independent MP.

    I went through a process of isolation inside the Labour Party in the early 1980s (in my case it was due to mistaken identity) so I know the feelings of bitterness and betrayal. Dunne will not have forgotten how he was treated back then and now we have another woman prime minister who learnt the trade in part from Helen Clark. He is unlikely to be too kindly disposed towards the present Labour-led government.

    • "…………so I know the feelings of bitterness and betrayal".

      Hopefully @ Anne, you don't still hold them. Usually the perpetrators aren't worth it. Often they're an eternal source of humour for me.

      If you do – just imagine them in the nuddy or something. I've always thought of Dunne in the same way I imagine Wayne Wayne hold the ladder steady. The only thing I remember about the bow tie is how a poor little rich kid mate of mine from Johnsonville (actually the son of one of J'ville and Newland's early real estate developers) ripped off a few of his fence palings – stuffing them in to daddy's Merc.

      • Anne 5.1.1

        OWT I have long passed the feelings of individual betrayal. But you never forget and that would be the case with Peter Dunne. That was the thrust of my comment.

        Actually my experience went much further than a bit of political betrayal and included criminal activity but that's another story.

        • OnceWasTim 5.1.1.1

          Good good @ Anne.  I have had, AND heard of similar stories (including the last bit).  It's why I've become increasingly cynical about the state of our public service as it stands these days. 

          By the way, from what I've seen of your past posts/comments, I seem to remember you've had employment disputes. Bottom line – best never agree to any sort of confidentiality agreement.

          • Anne 5.1.1.1.1

            The "employment disputes" turned out to be merely symptomatic of something more serious that was going on. I can't say more than that.

  6. Robert Guyton 6

    "Peter Dunne was one of the more forgettable MPs that we have had."

    Let's completely forget him then.

    • Anne 6.1

      Can't agree with that Robert. He was part of a very interesting time in NZ politics and the full story has yet to be told. What was happening inside the Labour Party in the 1970s and 80s shaped our political scene for years to come and still shapes it to some degree.

  7. lprent 7

    Although NZ First’s demise is possible I suspect that the Green’s support is resilient and the increasing focus on environmental issues should ensure that they remain.

    I'd say that you're a bit starry eyed. The greens have a constituency for sure. Not a particularly robust one in electoral terms as they often tend to be political fashionistas rather than capable of sustained staying power.

    I'd say that NZ First support is pretty resilient. Sure they dropped below the 5% threshold in 2008. However that was to just 4.07% which made them the 4th party in list vote in that election (above Act, Peter Dunnes party, the Maori party). https://electionresults.org.nz/electionresults_2008/partystatus.html

    That was on the back of some pretty disgusting and incorrect allegations in a hit by  Act, who as usual were acting for National, about what can only be described as sloppy accounting. 

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_First#2008_general_election

    In the months before the 2008 general election, New Zealand First became embroiled in a dispute over donations to the party from Owen Glenn, the Vela family and Bob Jones. This resulted in an investigation into party finances by the Serious Fraud Office on 28 August 2008 and an investigation into Peters by the Privileges Committee.[74] On 29 August 2008 Peters stood down from his ministerial roles while the investigations were ongoing.[75] Although the Serious Fraud Office and the police found that Peters was not guilty of any wrongdoing, the episode harmed Peters and the party in the lead-up to the election.[76]

    Having observed NZ First for a large number of years including attending a number of their conferences for this site, I've come to the conclusions that

    1. they have a pretty strong mandate and constituency, albeit one that I personally don't have a lot of time for. 
    2. they feel like a political party at conference level (and I have spent a lot of time at political party conferences for Labour at regional and national level in the last 35 years). They definitely don't feel like a one-man band, and Peters didn't dominate the usual waffling, bitching and ranting by delegates and politicians.
    3. there looked to be a respectable number of moderately competent political bods capable of stepping into the leadership (Shane Jones not being one of them).
    4. in my view, the only real concern for the party is if and when Winston Peters steps down and the inevitable succession tomfoolery begins.

     I don't know the guy, but I think it'd take a debilitating disease to get Peters to step down and not just die while in office. I sure as hell don't think that this current National party has a shit show of extracting too many votes from NZ First in the coming election. 

    Personally I'm more worried about the Green's electoral support because of how damn flaky it has been during my time around politics. So far it has held up ok. But this is their first time inside a government and partially responsible for what it does, and I always worry about the fashionistas who soft poll for them actually turning up at the polling booths.

    But I agree that Peter Dunne has become a political flake post parliament.

    • Enough is Enough 7.1

      I am hopeful that NZ First slips below the magical 5% mark.

      They are the hand break that is preventing this government from doing anything more just than tinkering. 

      CGT, the removal of three strikes, and subsidising farmers under the ETS are three examples of where NZ First is holding things back. They are perfectly entitled to do so, but I think we will see a much more progressive government addressing the real issues we face, if the conservative hand break of Winston was not in the cabinet room.

      • Naki man 7.1.1

        Why would you want the removal of three strikes?
        I don’t think labour want to do any more than just tinkering

        • Rapunzel 7.1.1.1

          Why can't three strikes be applied when fraudsters commit a comprehensive set of offences that often aren't revealed until the full impact of the damage to others is set in place and made clear with little chance of recompense.

          If that was added it might make sense.

      • lprent 7.1.2

        I hope not. If you think short-term, then you might get some advantage. But all that would happen is that you store up political problems for the future. Think of the kinds of fun that a FPP system caused in NZ prior to MMP. Or what is happening under strong FPP systems like the UK and US right now.

        There is a large constituency for the kind of morally conservative and economically left leaning person that NZ First services. If they can’t express themselves politically then they are about the most destructive thing you can have in politics long term as they get more and more frustrated.

        You could say the same about the extreme left and right as well (for me it is often hard to distinguish between them and the other dystopian/utopian anarchists). The difference is that those groups are all too fractured to be of too much real political importance. In any healthy political system their natural level of agreement involves a group of just one, or they go into inherently limited leader-guru-follower modes (ie like the christian political groups tend towards).

        But the kinds of people who support NZ First are naturally collaborative. Under our MMP system, if NZF really died, then they’d head into supporting Labour where most of them came from. The rest were soft Nats and are likely to follow. Then where would Labour be? They’d be railing against having the kinds of policies that Labour needs more than they do already.

        As it is, it is easier to trade at a coalition government level. In the meantime education rather than what would effectively be political coercion works over time and (most importantly) doesn’t frustrate them. They carry on learning as they stay involved rather than trying to fight the battles of some distant mythic past.

        Suffer them use them as the success stick. Know that when you eventually get them to agree to something that they’d have condemned outright a decade ago, that social progress has actually been made, and it can’t be reversed easily.

        Easy wins done by political coercion are pretty useless. I’d suggest that you should not chase their illusions.

  8. Michael 8

    I think Dunne may be correct with his conclusion, although I think his premises are dubious. The outcomes of elections under MMP are always close. Labour hasn't achieved much since taking office, especially for its electoral base (in contrast to the scores it's made for its elite). The Party is already displaying dangerous signs of complacency, which I'd expect to see in a third term government with a few policy wins under its belt, instead of a first-term one that came into office with no real idea of what to do once it scored itself all the perks (hence all the "working groups" that were really only kicks for touch). The Nats, under Crusher, will be formidable campaigners, with all that money and media space. They will play dirty (of course), with lots of dog whistle blowing to their rabid supporters.

  9. WeTheBleeple 9

    People died and continue to die because that moron Dunne legalised synthetic cannabis. A backtrack was too little too late this nasty grass became common and now there's a market for it.

    And of course he was corrupt and compromised.

    /father-son-dunne-deals/

    The biggest sack of shit in a bow tie since Peewee Herman.

  10. Phil 10

    We've had eight elections under MMP. There have only been two, maybe three, where the result was not obvious coming into election day. So, on a purely statistical basis, Dunne is probably right. 

  11. Formerly Ross 11

    He correctly points out that no minor party that has gone into coalition or support has survived the next election.

    Really? Didn’t the Māori Party support National in 2008, 2011 and 2014? Sure they’re gone now but it took three elections! 🙂

    http://www.maoriparty.org/confidence_supply

  12. Stuart Munro. 12

    It reeks of self-justification – Dunne's small party withered and died of lack of principle. Dunne will be remembered chiefly for his murderous error of legalizing synthetic cannabis.

    Both NZF and the Greens are tender of course. But the former does tend to pick up close to elections, possibly from protest votes. While Winston breathes talk of its demise is premature. The Greens are not without problems, but they have a solid core of support and probably pick up a disproportionate share of new voters. Efforts on climate change will only help them.

    But the important difference is that Labour recognizes it needs its partners and takes some care not to cannibalize them. They are much better treated than the Maori party was, their concerns are heard and some at least are implemented. As a result neither party shows signs of wholesale abandonment by its supporters, though there is plenty of muttering about issues like mass immigration and weak responses to the theft of water rights.

    • Phil 12.1

      the former [NZF] does tend to pick up close to elections, possibly from protest votes.

      This is one of the most frustratingly enduring falsehoods of NZ politics.

      NZF has over-performed what their polling says they 'should' produce on election day just twice (2011 and 2014) and in both cases were legitimate last minute events that got Winston traction which could never be picked up by the last pre-election polls. In all other elections NZF has had an utterly unremarkable run of polling coming into election day. 

      • Stuart Munro. 12.1.1

        Mmm – I've heard it said that all minor parties have this characteristic to some degree, so that their mid-term polling is superficially frightening (if one wishes them to survive). 

  13. Chris T 13

    I know if  doesn't fit your hatred, but Dunne kept Ohariu for so long because he was an excellent electorate MP.

    Unless you think the only reason he spent 33 years winning the thing, including under several various Labour govts and even for a while as a Labour MP, because of National.

    Gee. And the left say National are nasty and greedy. 

    As for the election, after Ch Ch if it is close, the COL will have had make a complete hash of things

    • Rapunzel 13.1

      Do you have clarification of the "nasty and greedy", perhaps who you are referring that back to? All I read were a few opinions which is quite normal. 

  14. mosa 14

    Just what we need another right wing commentator !!!!
    Of course the election will be close between the two main parties as Nationals vote is still holding up despite some slippage and Bridges less than inspiring performance.

    Winston will be back but the Greens i am not so sure unless they can harness that millennial vote.

    Dunne was always a political prostitute he would go with anyone to feather his own nest.

    His treatment of Helen Kelly will forever tarnish his reputation such as it is.

    And his involvement with a certain political commentator was hid well by Key and the others in return for his political survival.

  15. Awe shucks @ Chris T. I'm so very very sorry if you feel as though I've been a part of something that's been a bit of a meany to you.

    Can you think of anything I could do to make things better?

    • Rapunzel 15.1

      Oh so it was you "Tim"? Chris T seems to have bit of an affection for "nagativity".

  16. McFlock 16

    Yeah, I'm not seeing much of a downside for Labour at this stage. But if they govern alone, or with NZ1 but not the greens, I'd worry that Labour will creep into natlite territory and end up back in Lab5's stale last half.

    Labgrn in 2020 and I reckon we'll see some more fundamental shifts towards social justice.

    • Rosemary McDonald 16.1

      I'd worry that Labour will creep into natlite territory …

      Some of us are seeing them as such now.

      In fact, I almost prefer the Other Mob purely from the standpoint of them being honestly hateful as opposed to this Current Mob's pretense of kindness towards some of their constituents.

      • McFlock 16.1.1

        Yeah, the perfect is often the enemy of the good these days. It's a recurring topic.

        I just hope you don't do a CV and go from "almost" to "actually".

  17. CHCoff 17

    Baring major fraud, wouldn't see it myself.

    The Govt. partys are not in campaign mode, they are governing, so that's probably significant for further bumps in the current environment.

    The % of un polled voters not part of the beltway will be greater this time around, & few to none of those will be National.

    Additionally, NZ1st always does better than is said normally anyway, when has there been an election when NZ1st has not been discounted before hand in the build up?

    On the flip side of that, the Greens are usually/often rated higher than what the results give, which given current beltway placings, could be something requiring abit more thought for them.

  18. swordfish 18

     
    Bizarro analysis from the fellow with the Hairdo & Bow-Tie.

    Dunne appears to have been either drunk / high / blissfully bewildered or indulging in a deliberate exercise of quite outrageous obfuscation.

    I typed up the following response late last night when I was half-asleep (which is OK when you're 20, you can wing it, but when you're about to hit 55 as I am in a few weeks time then you pretty much only have two world-weary braincells left to rub together as it is, so tiredness can impede clarity & coherence) … but hopefully this'll make some sort of raw commonsense:

    Sitting right at the heart of what appears to be a quite profound confusion is Dunne's strange fixation not only on Seat numbers per se (rather than the comparative Party Vote percentages that determine those seat numbers) but more particularly with the notion of how difficult it will be for Labour at the next Election to pick up an apparently very specific, distinct & crucial little group of seats previously "allocated" to its Junior Coalition Partners. Dunne seems to see the outcome of the next Election as dependent on some sort of cosmic struggle between Labour & National for this idiosyncratic little collection of former NZF/Green seats that are now apparently up for grabs. It's such an odd way of conceiving things.

    Indeed, as I'll show below, it's almost as if he believes we're still living under FPP, with all seats being Geographical Constituencies that need to be won through local campaigning. Perhaps because (with National's conspicuous rubber-stamp endorsement in Ohariu) that's how his one-man UF-band remained in Parliament for all those years.

    He argues that it's likely that either one or both Junior Coalition Partners will fail to make it back after the next Election. I think he's wrong on this … based on comparative historical poll analysis, I've felt for quite some time that both will cross the threshold in 2020, but let's put that to one side for the moment.

     

    Dunne's curious argument proceeds in the following way: (my comments in parentheses)

    (1) The Ardern Govt has 63 seats. Between them, the Greens & NZF hold 17 of these.

    (2) The "removal" (very odd phrase from Dunne) of these 17 seats, as a result of the two Junior Coalition Partners falling below the 5% threshold, would make Labour's re-election chances "nigh impossible."

    (3) Why ? Because although Labour would "pick up some seats as a consequence" (a remarkably vague formulation … what's Dunne referring to ?), it's very unlikely to pick up "the minimum of 15 it would need to remain in government". (He never comes close to explaining Why this would be such a monumental task or how increased wasted vote in 2020 might impact)

    (4) And, according to Dunne, all this is dependent on the further assumption that "Labour was to hold all of its current 46 seats" in the first place. (Can you see here how he seems to view these seats as Geographical Constituencies ? … it "holds on" to "all of its current 46 seats" & then has to win a bare "minimum of 15" more. This is a very strange misunderstanding of MMP).

    (5) In contrast, 2020 is apparently a much more attractive scenario for the Nats. Assuming the Party "were to hold all its current seats, and regain Botany …", Dunne argues, "it would need to win just four of the nine current New Zealand First/Greens seats to be able to form a government" (But Peter, aren't there 17 seats currently held by the Junior Coalition Partners, rather than 9 ??? … and, more importantly, we're seeing precisely the same bizarre idea that a major party "holds on" to its current seats (as if they're all geographical constituencies won by local MPs) … & then has to win a further group of specific seats that had previously been "allocated" to New Zealand First/Greens).

    (6)  "Even if the Greens survived", says Dunne, "and just New Zealand First fell out, National would be in the stronger position of the two main parties to lead the next government." The Nats would need to win just 4 of the 9 seats "currently allocated" to Winston, whereas Labour's task would be "very difficult", needing to pick up "most of the previously allocated New Zealand First seats and then hope the Greens scored at least their number in the present Parliament to have a chance of carrying on in government." (once again, precisely zero explanation offered for Why it's such a "very difficult" goal for Labour … and again Dunne's remarkably odd idea of a very distinct, very specific, almost autonomous, almost geographical little collection of seats being "allocated" to Winston in 2017 and now, under this hypothetical 2020 scenario, apparently up for grabs & absolutely crucial for victory)

     

    I mean What the Flying … ???

    It's actually remarkably simple, Peter. You're having enormous trouble distinguishing the Wood from the Trees. Everything comes down to the comparative Party Vote % which, in turn, of course, determines overall Seat numbers. That's all you need to worry about.

    If the Ardern Govt Bloc or (as Dunne insists) just Lab+Green (with NZF out) receive a higher proportion of the Party Vote than Nat+ACT … then a Labour-led Government is returned.  Plain & simple. No supposedly insurmountable hurdle for Labour, no having to win an impossible majority of some mythical little collection of make-or-break seats (each apparently with their own idiosyncratic name, personality & backstory) specifically "allocated" to Winston in the current Parliament but now up for grabs in 2020.

    Instead, Peter, you need to clear your mind and see each Election as a Blank Slate. Let me repeat that: a Blank Slate.

    If, for instance, Winston failed to make the threshold in 2020 (as you're assuming), and Labour + Greens received say 52% to Nat + ACT's 43% … then a Lab-led Govt will not only be returned but actually with a greater share of seats than those currently held by the entire Govt Bloc to boot !. Simple as that. No former Winston seats to be "reallocated", no Everest to climb, no Gobi Desert to traverse, no Atlantic Ocean to cross, no Mission Nigh Impossible Do or Die scenario for Labour or any such bizarre, meaningless nonsense.

    If you'd said something cogent like I don't think it's likely that Labour & the Greens together can generate enough Party Vote support at the next General Election to win more than 60 seats … then at least you're making a potentially plausible argument. But instead, you've headed down this outrageously convoluted path that muddies & mystifies everything in its wake.

    So I'd suggest the wise thing to do is save a great deal of time & energy by simply having a wee gander at the most recent opinion polls to see who is currently leading in the Party Vote under various scenarios:

    Here are the scenarios (I personally think 2020 is probably going to be an (a)-type scenario, whereas you'd suggest it's more likely be (b), (d), or possibly (c)):

    (a) If all Parties currently represented in Parl are returned in 2020 (Govt Bloc vs Oppo Bloc)

    (b) If NZF fails to make threshold (L+G vs Oppo Bloc)

    (c) If Greens fail to make threshold (L+NZF vs Oppo Bloc)

    (d) If both Govt Junior Partners fail to make threshold (Lab vs Oppo Bloc)

    (e) (same as (d) but in addition … If ACT fails to make it back) (Lab vs Nat)

     

    Looking at the latest Opinion Polls:

     

    UMR (July 2019)

    (a) Govt Bloc Lead (over Oppo Bloc) close to 20 points

    (b) Lab+Green Lead (over Oppo Bloc) around 12 points

    (c) Lab+NZF Lead (over Oppo Bloc) about 10 points

    (d) Lab Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 3 points

    (e) Lab Lead (over Nats) 4 points

     

    Newshub RR (June 2019)

    (a) Govt Bloc Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 22 points

    (b) Lab+Green Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 19 points

    (c) Lab+NZF Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 16 points

    (d) Lab Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 13 points

    (e) Lab Lead (over Nats) 14 points

     

    One News CB (June 2019)

    (a) Govt Bloc Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 8 points

    (b) Lab+Green Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 3 points

    (c) Lab+NZF Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 2 points

    (d) Oppo Bloc Lead (over Lab) 3 points

    (e) Nat lead (over Lab) 2 points

     

    In both the latest UMR & Reid Research … you can see that the Ardern Government in all its possible formulations (L+G+NZF / L+G / L+NZF / Lab alone) beat both National & the Oppo Bloc as a whole (massively in the Reid Research).

    In the latest Colmar Brunton, an Ardern-led Govt would be returned in all cases unless both Junior Coalition Partners fell below the threshold. (although, even in that scenario, I suspect it'd actually prove a knife-edge result because Green & NZF deserters are more likely to head Labour's way, thus boosting its vote vis-a-vis the Oppo).

    • Sacha 18.1

      it's almost as if he believes we're still living under FPP

      Yep. That's where I got to, without all the rest. 🙂

      • swordfish 18.1.1

        I can just immediately see how tired I was … outrageously repetitive. Couldn't be arsed editing it this morn. Sad but true.

        • Sacha 18.1.1.1

          Hey I just didn't need the evidence this time to be convinced he was operating on a false premise. How that got waved through any editorial oversight process is another matter.

    • Pat 18.2

      Dunne's a lifetime politician who apparently has thrown his lot in with the opposition (yet again, hard to believe he was ever in Labour) and is contributing to the only viable strategy available to them….attempting to undermine the coalition via its various support bases.

      Nothing new and rather blatant

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    What other song could we play as the UK's political rule book gets torn up and thrown away?Video courtesy of YouTubeThis post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    21 hours ago
  • Election 2019 – The Legendary Liveblog
    Legendary in my own mind, I mean.  All times are NZ, which is an hour10.00am (NZ) There's about an hour to go until the exit poll is released.  At that point, half of the British voting public will devastated, and the other half celebrating wildly.  Unless everyone is simply confused.Turnout seems ...
    1 day ago
  • Some Thoughts On Socialism As Jeremy Corbyn Loses The UK General Election.
    Forlorn Hope: When the call came down to make Corbyn unelectable, the Establishment's journalists and columnists rose to the challenge. Antisemitism was only the most imaginative of the charges levelled against the old democratic-socialist. There were many more and, sadly, they appear to have worked. Boris Johnson may not be much ...
    1 day ago
  • Cartoonist David Low’s Radical Sympathy.
    "Rendezvous" by David Low, September 1939.DUNEDIN IS THE BIRTHPLACE of, for my money, the world’s greatest cartoonist, David Low. At the height of his powers, in 1930s London, Low’s cartoons represented the visual conscience of the civilised world. His most famous cartoon, “Rendezvous”, penned a few weeks into the Second ...
    1 day ago
  • The UK has a choice as to whether it chooses to be manipulated… or not.
    If you want to study propagandist techniques, you are typically told to study Dictatorships. Not unfair, but what’s always been more interesting to me is so-called “democratic” countries and their broader information systems. Why? Because people opt for it, even as they decry “totalitarian regimes!”.. It’s quite an eye ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 days ago
  • Today’s secrecy legislation
    Introducing legislation which shits on the public's right to know seems to have become a daily occurrence for this government. Today's example is the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Bill. The bill establishes a framework for the establishment of "special purpose vehicles" (SPVs) to hide debt from local government balance sheets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: Public Address Word of the Year 2019: Time to vote!
    Below is the longlist of words and phrases generated in the korero phase of Public Address Word of the Year 2019, with some editorial moderation. Now it's time to vote. As you'll doubtless be able to see, you get three ranked choices. Use your power wisely. Or frivolously, whatever.As usual, ...
    2 days ago
  • Encryption, passwords, and self-incrimination
    The University of Waikato and New Zealand Law Foundation have released a report today on the law around encryption in New Zealand. There's stuff in there about principles and values, and how proposed government policies to provide for "lawful access" by creating backdoors would destroy the trust which makes encryption ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Drawn
    A ballot for two Member's Bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Insurance (Prompt Settlement of Claims for Uninhabitable Residential Property) Bill (Stuart Smith) Social Security (Exemption for Ex Gratia and Compensation Payments) Amendment Bill (Willow-Jean Prime) Neither bill seems likely to be particularly controversial. This is ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Bougainville votes for independence
    Earlier in the month, Bougainvilleans went to the polls in a landmark referendum to decide on whether they would remain part of Papua New Guinea or become independent. Yesterday, the results came in, with over 97% support for independence. The referendum wasn't binding - instead it means negotiations with the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Bus strikes, suspensions and solidarity
    by Daphna Whitmore This week 800 unionised bus drivers in Auckland were suspended from work after they refused to collect fares as part of a campaign of industrial action. Drivers working for Auckland’s largest bus company NZ Bus are asking for more pay and better working conditions after being offered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • How to support after the Whakaari/White Island volcanic eruption
    As details emerge about what unfolded on Whakaari / White Island two days ago, my thoughts go out to all the families affected by this terrible event. My thoughts are also with the first responders who worked in perilous circumstances to assist and protect those affected. Both local and ...
    SciBlogsBy Sarb Johal
    2 days ago
  • Final BMG poll – nothing to see here
    BMG research have unleashed their final poll of the 2019 campaign:Westminster voting intention: CON: 41% (-)LAB: 32% (-)LDEM: 14% (-)GRN: 4% (-)BREX: 3% (-1)via @BMGResearch , 06 - 11 Dec Chgs. w/ 06 Dec That's a bit of a "Dunno why we bothered" sort of poll. "Phillip, I'm afraid I've been a ...
    2 days ago
  • Grant Robertson Spends Up Large – On The Establishment!
    Grant Keeps On Trucking: Out of the $12 billion Robertson has announced for infrastructure investment, $8 billion will be allocated to specific projects, with the balance of $4 billion held in reserve. What does it say about this Government's "transformational" ambitions that 85 percent of that $8 billion is to ...
    2 days ago
  • Boris Johnson … Hides … In a Fridge
    I am not making this up.First few lines of the Dail Mail write up:Boris Johnson's exasperated media minder swore on live TV today as the PM refused to speak to Good Morning Britain before trotting into a fridge as he started an early milkround in Yorkshire. Piers Morgan was visibly ...
    2 days ago
  • Shy Labour Voters?
    In previous elections pollsters have bemoaned the 'shy Tory' - the respondent who is so fearful of being judged as a cruel and heartless bastard by an anonymous pollster, or their spouses, workmates and friends, that they lie about their intention of voting Conservative, skewing the poll figures in Labour's ...
    3 days ago
  • Seven reasons to be wary of waste-to-energy proposals
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz I was in Switzerland recently and discovered that they haven’t ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 days ago
  • Reviewing the whitewash
    Back in 2015, then Ombudsman Beverley Wakem conducted a review of the OIA, Not a game of hide and seek. The "review" was a whitewash, which found no need for legislative change, and instead criticised the media and requesters - which destroyed Wakem's reputation, and undermined that of the Office ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • You Gov MRP Poll Out
    So, You Gov's MRP poll - the weird one that tries to reflect what will happen at a constituency level and which pretty much nailed the hung parliament in 2017 - is not looking too good for Labour:
    UK #GE2019 MRP seat projection:CON: 339 (-20)LAB: 231 (+20)SNP: 41 (-2)LDEM: 15 ...
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Accountability?
    We've known about climate change for over forty years now,and it has been a major political issue for twenty. And yet fossil fuel companies have kept polluting with impunity, while government have looked the other way and twiddled their thumbs and refused to do anything because "the economy", or just ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Delusional And Irrational: The Rise Of Paranoid Politics In New Zealand.
    Sheer Loopiness: Many of those expressing bemusement at the antics of these #turnardern effacers, were convinced that they were yet another expression of the National Party’s increasingly spiteful anti-government propaganda campaign. They marvelled at the oddness of the perpetrators’ mindset and questioned the common-sense of allowing the rest of New Zealand ...
    3 days ago
  • Things to know about Whakaari/White Island
    Brad Scott, GNS Science VolcanologistThis post was originally published by GeoNet. Following the 9 December devastating eruption at Whakaari/White Island we have put together some information about the island. New Zealand’s most active volcano Whakaari/White Island is currently New Zealand’s most active volcano, it has been since an eruptive episode ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    4 days ago
  • Status quo supports status quo
    The Justice Committee has reported back on its Inquiry into the 2017 General Election and 2016 Local Elections, with a host of recommendations about how to improve our electoral systems. Some of their recommendations are already incorporate din the Electoral Amendment Bill currently before Parliament, but there's also a recommendation ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • The Greens abandon NeoLiberalism
    Back in 2017, in order to make themselves "electable" in the eyes of rich people who oppose everything they stand for, the Greens signed up for NeoLiberalism, adopting a restrictive set of "Budget Responsibility Rules" which basicly prevented them from using government to make things better. Now, they're finally abandoning ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Lying about a failed war
    Since invading in 2001, the US has consistently claimed that their war in Afghanistan has been going well, even when it continued year after year after year. Of course, they were lying, and thanks to the Washington Post and the US Freedom of Information Act, we get to see just ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Artificial Intelligence and You
    How should we think about artificial intelligence and the implications that it has for our work and leisure? There are many articles on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on jobs, and the ethics of applications. These are important topics, but I want to focus on some less discussed aspects, ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    4 days ago
  • Statistical manipulation to get publishable results
    I love data. It’s amazing the sort of “discoveries” I can make given a data set and computer statistical package. It’s just so easy to search for relationships and test their statistical significance. Maybe relationships which ...
    4 days ago
  • More lies on the Twitter (Dan Hodges edition)
    The other big story concerning Leeds Hospital is Boris Johnson's bizzare behaviour at Leeds Hospital, where he was confronted by a journalist and challenged about a four year old boy with suspected pneumonia who was left sleeping on the floor, rather than getting  abed like a sick kid would in ...
    4 days ago
  • LabourActivistPunchedMattHancock’sSPADGate
    So, for a brief period of history, it was alleged that a protester had punched Matt Hancock's SPAD (not a euphemism; special adviser) when Hancock visited Leeds Hospital.This was reported by the likes of Robert Peston and Laura Keunssberg, as well as the less credible Guido Fawkes.  It also quickly ...
    4 days ago
  • France’s anti-Zionism is anti-liberté
    by Daphna Whitmore Last week France passed a law that equates anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism. It is based on a definition of anti-Semitism that includes criticism of Israel such as: “Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination, e.g., by claiming that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Another bus lockout
    Over the past year we've seen major bus problems in Hamilton and Wellington, as drivers have sought better wages and an end to the bullshit of split shifts, which basicly see them "married to the job". And now its Auckland's turn. When NZBus's drivers planned low-level strike action of not ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Showing us how its done
    The government has been congratulating itself over the passage of the Zero Carbon Act, which sets out long-term emissions targets. But those targets are insufficient. Meanwhile, Denmark is showing us how its done:Denmark’s parliament adopted a new climate law on Friday, committing to reach 70% below its 1990 emissions in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Public sector dysfunction should not be allowed to undermine freedom of information
    Another day, another piece of legislation with a secrecy clause. This time its the innocuous-seeming Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill, which (after establishing a new body and making it subject to the OIA in three different ways) includes the rapidly-becoming-standard clauses enabling it to request information from other public ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • “This is England, this knife of Sheffield steel…”
    The state of the United Kingdom is fractured, torn up, shredded. The Empire is gone, it died a long time ago. And yet, the country is still tracking with a lead in favour of the ones who play to the ingrained, class-bound division for political gain. It is a disgrace ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    7 days ago
  • CORSIA, coming soon to an airport near you
    On 27 September, Greta Thunberg addressed a crowd of 500,000 at the School Strike for Climate in Montreal, saying: “You are a nation that is allegedly a climate leader. And Sweden is also a nation that is allegedly a climate leader. And in both cases, it means absolutely nothing. Because ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    7 days ago
  • Cloaking hate speech and fake news in the right to free expression.
    It should be obvious by now but let’s be clear: The same folk who regularly traffic in disinformation, misinformation and “fake news” are also those who most strongly claim that their freedom of expression rights are being violated when moves are made to curb hate speech (as opposed to protected ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • The Physics (and Economics, and Politics) of Wheelchairs on Planes
    Michael Schulson When Shane Burcaw flies on an airplane, he brings along a customized gel cushion, a car seat, and about 10 pieces of memory foam. The whole arsenal costs around $1,000, but for Burcaw it’s a necessity. The 27-year-old author and speaker — who, alongside his fiancée, Hannah ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • To Advance Civil Rights, Oppose Transgender Extremism
    We are very pleased to publish this submission is from Lucinda Stoan. She is a social justice activist, mother, and educator, based in Washington State in the  US.   This detailed and comprehensive source-linked overview of trans issues and what is at stake will be useful for many people, especially in ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Faafoi should be fired
    Newshub last night reported that Broadcasting Minister Kris Faafoi had apparently promised to help out a mate with an immigration issue. While its normal for people to approach MPs for assistance in this area, when you're a Minister, the rules are different: as the Cabinet Manual says, Ministers must "at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Adrian Orr – The Reserve Bank’s Revolutionary Governor?
    New Zealand's Underarm Banker: It bears recalling that the “independence” of the Reserve Bank Governor was for decades held up by neoliberal capitalists as the most compelling justification for passing the Reserve Bank Act. Interesting, is it not, how the ruling class’s support for the Bank’s independence lasted no longer than ...
    1 week ago
  • Driving Us Up The Poll.
    Rubbish In, Rubbish Out: Put all this together, and it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that anyone who responds positively to a pollster’s request to “answer a few questions” is just ever-so-slightly weird. Desperately lonely? Some sort of psephological train-spotter? Political party member primed to skew the poll for or against ...
    1 week ago
  • Jordan Williams, Colin Craig podcast series announced
    “Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at last.” ― Martin Luther King Jr. A long and bitter court feud between former Conservative Party leader Colin Craig and Jordan Williams has been settled, with an apology and compensation from Williams. On Tuesday, Craig sent out ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    1 week ago
  • How plant-based meat is stretching New Zealand’s cultural and legal boundaries
    Samuel Becher, Victoria University of Wellington and Jessica C Lai, Victoria University of Wellington Earlier this year, the New Zealand-based pizza chain Hell Pizza offered a limited-edition “Burger Pizza”. Its customers weren’t told that the “meat” was plant-based. Some customers complained to the Commerce Commission, which enforces consumer law in ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Scientific integrity requires critical investigation – not blind acceptance
    Some people seem to want to close down any critical discussion of the current research into the relationship between water fluoride and child IQ. They appear to argue that claims made by researchers should not be open to critical review and that the claims be accepted without proper consideration ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The shameful reality
    The government has been congratulating itself over the passage of the Zero Carbon Act, which sets out long-term emissions targets. Meanwhile, Climate Action Tracker has the shameful reality: those targets are insufficient:While New Zealand is showing leadership by having passed the world’s second-ever Zero Carbon Act in November 2019, under ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • More secrecy
    The government introduced a Racing Industry Bill today. As an urban who horse racing as pointless-to-cruel, and gambling as a tax on stupidity and/or hope, this isn't normally a bill which would interest me in the slightest, beyond grumpiness at more government money for a dying industry. But there is ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Unlikely online bully, Liam Hehir
    Check. Check. One, two, three, four. Is this thing ON? Hello readers, I logged in last night (yeah, it’s been a while) to mark THE END of the landmark legal case, Jordan Williams v Colin Craig, which (gulp) reached The Supreme Court, in which New Zealand’s most-defamed man was suing the politician he ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    1 week ago
  • The Birth Of Israel: Wrong At The Right Time.
    Before The Birth: Israel’s most fervent supporters set their clocks ticking in Biblical times. They cite the kingdoms of David and Solomon as proof that, in the words of the Exodus movie’s theme-song: “This land is mine.” The majority of Israel’s backers, however, start their clocks in 1933 – the year Adolf ...
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: Public Address Word of the Year 2019: Korero phase
    In an unreliable, strange and confusing world, Public Address is proud to present a measure of comfort and stability by annually asking everyone what words or phrases sum up the year that's been – and then giving some of them consumer goods as prizes for being clever or simply lucky.Well, ...
    1 week ago
  • Generalist to specialist
    Both my parents are pretty handy – and they seem to have the right tools for most jobs in the garage and they know how to fix practically anything. A similar story could be told about their generation’s experience in the workforce – being a generalist was not unusual and ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • A “coincidence”
    When it was revealed that NZ First had tried to enrich itself from public office via the Provoncial Growth Fund, the Prime Minister assured us that everything was OK as Shane Jones, the Minister responsible for the fund, had recused himself. Except it seems that that recusal came very late ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, and probably the last one of the year. After the marathon of the End of Life Choice Act, most of the bills up for debate today are uncontentious. First up is the second reading of Chlöe Swarbrick's Election Access Fund Bill. This will be followed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Worse than I thought
    The Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee has reported back on the government's odious and tyrannical control orders bill. As expected, the fraudulent select committee process has made no significant changes (partly because they couldn't agree, but mostly because it was a stitch-up from the start, with no intention of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The cannabis bill and the referendum
    Yesterday, the government released its draft Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill, which will be put to a non-binding referendum at the next election. I'm not a drug policy expert, but Russell Brown is, and he thinks its pretty good. And pretty obviously, it will be a massive improvement on the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: The Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill: pretty good so far
    As you're probably aware, the draft bill outlining the proposed legal cannabis regime to be put to a referendum late next year was published yesterday, and has already attracted a flurry of comment. It's notable that a good deal of the comment is about proposals that aren't actually new.A minimum ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Alignment
    One of the big problems in New Zealand climate change policy is the government working at cross-purposes with itself. It wants to reduce fossil fuel use, but encourages oil and gas exploration. It wants to reduce transport emissions, but then builds enormous new roads. The problem could be avoided if ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • How climate change will affect food production and security
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz According to the United Nations, food shortages are a threat ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • More bad faith
    Last year, the government announced it was ending offshore oil exploration by no longer issuing new permits. The idea was that the industry would then die off as permits expired. Except almost immediately the government revealed its bad faith, by saying they would extend permits and alter conditions to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Banning foreign money from our elections
    The government has said it will ban foreign donations to political parties and candidates, and will be introducing legislation to be passed under all-stages urgency this afternoon. While I agree with the goal, I don't see a particular case for urgency, unless the government is concerned about a flood of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Reforming the Education Acts
    The government introduced the Education and Training Bill to Parliament yesterday. Its a massive bill, which replaces both existing Education Acts, as well as various other bits of legislation (including some which are still proceeding through the House). I'll leave the serious analysis to teachers and people who actually know ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Bite-sized learning
    Amelia SharmanThere’s no one-size-fits-all when it comes to micro-credentials, those bits of bite-sized learning that can help workers stay on top of technological change.  What’s a micro-credential? While definitions vary, micro-credentials can be understood as short courses that allow people to learn new skills or have an existing competency recognised. ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • “Not The Labour Party We Once Knew.”
    All Smiles Now: Claire Szabo is taking up her presidential role after serving as the CEO of Habitat For Humanity. Which is absolutely perfect! After KiwiBuild was so comprehensively mismanaged by Phil Twyford, the party has not only elected a new president from a thoroughly respectable not-for-profit, but one who ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Marxist versus liberal methodology on transgender ideology/identity politics
    While much of the NZ left has transitioned to postmodern and identity politics in relation to transgender ideology, there are some very good articles about that deploy Marxist methodology in relation to this subject.  The one below is from the British marxist group Counterfire and appeared on their site here ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Book review: The Farm by Joanne Ramos
    by Daphna Whitmore At Golden Oaks, a luxurious country retreat in the Hudson Valley, pregnant women have the best care money can buy. From the organic food, personalised exercise programmes, private yoga instruction and daily massages Golden Oaks looks like a country lodge for the upper class. Set some time ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Loosening the purse strings
    When Labour was running for election in 2017, it felt it needed to demonstrate "fiscal responsibility" and signed itself up to masochistic "budget responsibility rules". It was a fool's errand: the sorts of voters who demand fiscal responsibility are also the sorts of voters who believe that labour can never ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: How to get there
    Writing in Stuff, Joel MacManus looks at what we need to do to meet the Zero Carbon Act's targets. The core of it:1. Convert 85 per cent of vehicles on the road to electric. 2. Eliminate fossil fuels from all industrial heating up to 300 degrees Celsius. 3. Double our ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • anti-vaxxers in a measles epidemic: so many ways to be untruthful
    “Anti-vaxers are a pro-death movement,” those comments from Dr Helen Petousis-Harris speaking about six more Measles related deaths in Samoa over the past twenty-four hours. “Anti-vaxers are a pro-death movement,” those comments from Dr Helen Petousis-Harris speaking about six more Measles related deaths in Samoa ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    2 weeks ago
  • Is Youth Vaping a Problem in New Zealand?
    Professors Janet Hoek and Richard Edwards, Emeritus Professor Phil Gendall, Jude Ball, Dr Judith McCool, Anaru Waa, Dr Becky Freeman Recent media reports have presented conflicting evidence on youth vaping in NZ. While some NZ school principals report concerns about increasing vaping on school grounds and confiscating vapes, ASH Year ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 weeks ago
  • In pursuit of “Freedom and Democracy”: Forever Wars in “America’s backyard”.
    “America the Beautiful!”, staunch defender of democracy, freedom and… a whole lot of despotic tyrants that play nice with what is called “the Washington Consensus.” America is indeed capable of immense good, but like any Nation, and most assuredly any aspirant to the mantle of Empire, great, immense evil. All ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • November ’19 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
    Image credit: The beginner’s guide to blogging I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Whodunnit? Finding the mystery 1080 testing lab
    1080 is used to control pests in NZ. Its use is contested by a noisy few. A new report claims high levels of 1080 in rats washed up on a beach. Flora and Fauna of Aotearoa (F&F) won’t name the laboratory that did their testing. It has sparked a hunt ...
    SciBlogsBy Grant Jacobs
    2 weeks ago
  • Authoritarian Friends, Democratic Enemies.
    What Kind Of Empire? The thing for Kiwis to decide is what kind of empire they want to belong to. The kind that, while offering its own citizens democratic rights, demands absolute obedience from its “friends”? Or, the kind that, while authoritarian at home, takes a relaxed attitude to the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Boris Johnson Goes Down
    It hasn't been a good week for the Conservatives, pollwise.  All major recent polls are showing their lead shrinking.Comparing each pollster's current (between 29/11 and 22/11) and previous most recent poll.Com Res - Conservative lead down 3 points.You Gov - Conservative lead down 1 point.Kantar - Conservative lead down 4 ...
    2 weeks ago

  • PM congratulates Boris Johnson on election victory
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson on his election victory.  “New Zealand and the United Kingdom are close friends and despite our distance we are strongly connected by our history and people,” Jacinda Ardern said.  “I look forward to continuing to work with Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Building a platform for the future of rail
    The Government has released its long term vision for a sustainable 21st Century rail network that gets our cities moving, connects our regions and gets more freight off the roads.   Deputy Prime Minister and State Owned Enterprises Minister Winston Peters said the Government is committed to rebuilding New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Prime Minister statement Whakaari White Island recovery operation
    I want to start by acknowledging the families who have experienced such grief and such loss since the extraordinary tragedy on Monday. Today was all about reuniting them with their loved ones. We've just come from the airport where many of them were gathered and in amongst what you can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • New Zealand medical specialists to provide further support to Samoa
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further support for Samoa’s longer term needs as it continues to respond to a devastating measles epidemic. “Samoa’s health system has experienced massive strain in the wake of the measles epidemic. The volume of patients needing care during this outbreak, and the number of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Discounted electric-bikes offered to public sector workers
    Discounted electric bikes will be offered up to public sector staff across the country as part of the Government’s work to reduce transport emissions and support healthier transport options.  Associate Minister of Transport Julie Anne Genter officially launched the new initiative at Wellington Hospital today.  “The Government has negotiated bulk-purchase ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Australia and New Zealand confirm joint bid for FIFA Women’s World Cup
    The Australian and New Zealand Governments today launch an historic joint bid to bring the FIFA Women’s World Cup to the Southern Hemisphere for the first time. Australian Minister for Youth and Sport, Richard Colbeck and New Zealand Minister for Sport and Recreation Grant Robertson will announce the bold campaign, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Blackwater gold mine gets PGF boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) has approved a $15 million loan to help re-establish a gold mining operation at Blackwater Gold Mine, near Reefton, Rural Communities Minister and local MP Damien O’Connor announced at an event on the West Coast today. “This is great news for the Coast that could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Papakāinga model inspires whānau well-being
    Papakāinga model inspires whānau well-being A housing project by Kohupātiki whānau in Hastings is an outstanding example of a Māori-led housing initiative that can reduce financial pressure and reconnect whānau to their whakapapa says the Minister for Māori Development Hon Nanaia Mahuta.  Minister Mahuta officially opened the Aroha Te Rangi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Government provides more funding for major community wetland restoration project
    Restoration efforts for a significant wetland in the Hawke’s Bay are getting more support announced Associate Minister for the Environment Eugenie Sage. “Wetlands are vital to healthy landscapes and ecosystems. They function as nature’s ‘kidneys’, filtering and protecting water quality, acting as nature’s sponges after rain and are home to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Housing First to help Nelson Tasman homeless
    Nelson has today seen the launch of Housing First Nelson Tasman. Today’s launch marks the expansion of the Government’s homelessness programme, Housing First, to the top of the South Island. “Housing First is a proven programme that puts people who are experiencing homelessness and multiple, high and complex needs into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • New funding to support Environment Centres working for sustainable local solutions
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