Dunne reckons next election will be close

Written By: - Date published: 9:22 am, July 26th, 2019 - 48 comments
Categories: death with dignity, drugs, greens, labour, national, nz first, peter dunne, political parties, uncategorized, united future - Tags: , ,

Peter Dunne was one of the more forgettable MPs that we have had.  Through the vagarities of a televised worm and National’s implosion in 2002 he led a small party for a while.  The party fell apart and dwindled into a rump of one.  Dunne eventually held the seat of Ohariu through National’s generosity and performed a sycophantic roll in distorting proportionality and allowing National to keep power.

His time as a minister was highlighted by his refusal to allow Helen Kelly to legally take cannabis derivatives.  This was utter reefer madness by his part.

He has engaged in some post political career reckons. I read his latest and I wondered if he had sneakily tried some medicinal reefer. Because his reckons made no sense.

He thinks that next year’s election will be a nailbiter.

I agree that we should never, ever take anything for granted but Dunne’s analysis is pretty flawed.

He correctly points out that no minor party that has gone into coalition or support has survived the next election.

But he then presumes that both the Greens and NZ First will disappear. Although NZ First’s demise is possible I suspect that the Green’s support is resilient and the increasing focus on environmental issues should ensure that they remain.

And he talks about how these disappearing third party seats will have to be won by Labour. He says this:

For the Labour-led Government, that would be disastrous. Between them, New Zealand First and the Greens hold 17 of the Government’s 63 seats in Parliament. Their removal by failing to cross the threshold would make Labour’s re-election task nigh impossible.

While it would pick up some seats as a consequence it would be most unlikely to pick up the minimum of 15 it would need to remain in government, assuming of course it was to hold all of its current 46 seats. Even the failure of just one of the parties (New Zealand First most likely) to gain 5 percent would make Labour’s task very difficult – it would need to pick up most of the previously allocated New Zealand First seats and then hope the Greens scored at least their number in the present Parliament to have a chance of carrying on in government. 

Those stark realities alone raise the possibility of Labour having to cede electorate seats to its partners (Wellington Central, which it holds, perhaps for the Greens and Whangarei, which it does not hold but has a strong vote in, to New Zealand First) but that would be extremely politically risky for all three parties given that they have piously railed against such arrangements in the past. The current Government has even talked of its intention to remove the one-seat threshold altogether, although that talk has fallen eerily quiet in recent months.

For National, on the other hand, that scenario is far more attractive. Again, assuming it were to hold all its current seats, regain Botany, and see ACT over the line again in Epsom, it would need to win just four of the nine current New Zealand First/Greens seats to be able to form a government.

What Dunne fails to mention and appreciate is that current polling has Labour at 42% and National at 38%.  This would give Labour 63 seats out of a 120 seat Parliament.  In fact Dunne studiously ignores current polling, consistently trots out right wing attack lines against Labour and against Ardern and not once even hints at let alone acknowledges National’s leadership problems.

His final sentence is a doozie:

Whatever its outcome, and it is far too early to make any predictions, a number of existing norms will be shattered.

If it is far too early to make any prediction how can he say that a number of existing norms will be shattered?

48 comments on “Dunne reckons next election will be close ”

  1. Dennis Frank 1

    Dunne pretending he ain't done. A sensible centrist who kept being unable to learn how to use centrism as a political lever. He'd probably cite his career path as evidence of success, but his centrist party withered on the vine, and history proves he couldn't grow it.

    So predicting minor party failure is probably freudian slippage attempting to ramp itself up into futurism. Because he couldn't do it, he can't see any basis for them to do it. Even though the basis is evident.

    For him to be proven right, this govt would have to degenerate into failure sufficiently for the Greens and NZF to seem each partly responsible for the failure. Currently all three parties in govt are demonstrating sufficient competence to survive. Equally, something would have to reverse the slide of the Nats, and no such x factor is even on the horizon let alone present.

    Then, as you imply, ignoring current polls in prognosis is rather perverse. His reasoning is strongest when he cites precedent, yet his analysis past that point amounts to little more than ruminating and what ifs. Nor is he reading the national mood.

  2. ianmac 2

    Lends weight to the idea that past politicians should pack it in. If he is that wise he would still be a serving MP.

    Mind you we could get a bizarre result like the Trump/Johnson becoming Trump/Johnson/Bridges all of them joining hands to sort out the World.

    • Rapunzel 2.1

      Trump/Johnson is ample warning, anything like that is a step way too far for all but the most deluded of NZers.

    • simbit 2.2

      Trump, Johnson, Putin, Erdogan et al. = end of empire. Neither surprising or necessarily scary. Actually in many ways reassuring…

  3. bwaghorn 3

    The fact the the right wing news hags are already attacking Winston almost gaurentee s a labour win.

    Because national can not win with out another party's help .

    The only thing that could stop that is the Jones boy hes proved hell jump into the nats pocket for a few trinkets.

    • roy cartland 3.1

      Jones and Mark. Both are much better fits for the NP, in fact I was almost surprised Jones wasn't parachuted in as the new leader. Could still happen…

  4. Rosemary McDonald 4

    This Government is probably our most idealistic since the Third Labour Government of 1972-75, which similarly struggled to convert its bold ideas into practice …

    I agree.

    If you don't agree with that statement mickysavage then provide evidence that there has been significant conversion of 'bold ideas into practice' by this government.

    (And how about doing this without your usual 'attack is the best line of defense' tactic and refrain from shooting the messenger…in this case an MP from a minor party that actually held an electorate seat for many, many years.)

    • Kevin 4.1

      Who are you quoting?

      • Rosemary McDonald 4.1.1

        ffs. Have you actually read the article mickysavage has linked to? You know, the one Dunne wrote for Newsroom?

        I make no apologies for not providing a(nother) link to an article that should have automatically have been read by anyone reading an article critiquing said article.

        • Kevin 4.1.1.1

          I would have used the block quote like Mickey did, but that's just me. Chill out and have a good day.

          • Rosemary McDonald 4.1.1.1.1

            Very deft distraction from the actual content of my comment there Kevin, and fool me fell for it.

            Still waiting for evidence from the post's author debunking Dunne's claim…

            This Government is probably our most idealistic since the Third Labour Government of 1972-75, which similarly struggled to convert its bold ideas into practice …

    • McFlock 4.2

      Lab4 was pretty idealistic, and managed to follow through. Sucks but true. Just wasn't left wing in its ideals.

  5. Anne 5

    When it comes to retired politicians and their utterings, it sometimes helps to go back to the past. Dunne was lucky. He swept into parliament in 1984 under the triumphant Lange-led Labour banner. He was a member of the right wing faction and embraced the neoliberal philosophy led by Roger Douglas. Soon after Helen Clark became leader in 1993, he found himself isolated from his parliamentary colleagues so he resigned and became an independent MP.

    I went through a process of isolation inside the Labour Party in the early 1980s (in my case it was due to mistaken identity) so I know the feelings of bitterness and betrayal. Dunne will not have forgotten how he was treated back then and now we have another woman prime minister who learnt the trade in part from Helen Clark. He is unlikely to be too kindly disposed towards the present Labour-led government.

    • "…………so I know the feelings of bitterness and betrayal".

      Hopefully @ Anne, you don't still hold them. Usually the perpetrators aren't worth it. Often they're an eternal source of humour for me.

      If you do – just imagine them in the nuddy or something. I've always thought of Dunne in the same way I imagine Wayne Wayne hold the ladder steady. The only thing I remember about the bow tie is how a poor little rich kid mate of mine from Johnsonville (actually the son of one of J'ville and Newland's early real estate developers) ripped off a few of his fence palings – stuffing them in to daddy's Merc.

      • Anne 5.1.1

        OWT I have long passed the feelings of individual betrayal. But you never forget and that would be the case with Peter Dunne. That was the thrust of my comment.

        Actually my experience went much further than a bit of political betrayal and included criminal activity but that's another story.

        • OnceWasTim 5.1.1.1

          Good good @ Anne. I have had, AND heard of similar stories (including the last bit). It's why I've become increasingly cynical about the state of our public service as it stands these days.

          By the way, from what I've seen of your past posts/comments, I seem to remember you've had employment disputes. Bottom line – best never agree to any sort of confidentiality agreement.

          • Anne 5.1.1.1.1

            The "employment disputes" turned out to be merely symptomatic of something more serious that was going on. I can't say more than that.

  6. Robert Guyton 6

    "Peter Dunne was one of the more forgettable MPs that we have had."

    Let's completely forget him then.

    • Anne 6.1

      Can't agree with that Robert. He was part of a very interesting time in NZ politics and the full story has yet to be told. What was happening inside the Labour Party in the 1970s and 80s shaped our political scene for years to come and still shapes it to some degree.

  7. lprent 7

    Although NZ First’s demise is possible I suspect that the Green’s support is resilient and the increasing focus on environmental issues should ensure that they remain.

    I'd say that you're a bit starry eyed. The greens have a constituency for sure. Not a particularly robust one in electoral terms as they often tend to be political fashionistas rather than capable of sustained staying power.

    I'd say that NZ First support is pretty resilient. Sure they dropped below the 5% threshold in 2008. However that was to just 4.07% which made them the 4th party in list vote in that election (above Act, Peter Dunnes party, the Maori party). https://electionresults.org.nz/electionresults_2008/partystatus.html

    That was on the back of some pretty disgusting and incorrect allegations in a hit by Act, who as usual were acting for National, about what can only be described as sloppy accounting.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_First#2008_general_election

    In the months before the 2008 general election, New Zealand First became embroiled in a dispute over donations to the party from Owen Glenn, the Vela family and Bob Jones. This resulted in an investigation into party finances by the Serious Fraud Office on 28 August 2008 and an investigation into Peters by the Privileges Committee.[74] On 29 August 2008 Peters stood down from his ministerial roles while the investigations were ongoing.[75] Although the Serious Fraud Office and the police found that Peters was not guilty of any wrongdoing, the episode harmed Peters and the party in the lead-up to the election.[76]

    Having observed NZ First for a large number of years including attending a number of their conferences for this site, I've come to the conclusions that

    1. they have a pretty strong mandate and constituency, albeit one that I personally don't have a lot of time for.
    2. they feel like a political party at conference level (and I have spent a lot of time at political party conferences for Labour at regional and national level in the last 35 years). They definitely don't feel like a one-man band, and Peters didn't dominate the usual waffling, bitching and ranting by delegates and politicians.
    3. there looked to be a respectable number of moderately competent political bods capable of stepping into the leadership (Shane Jones not being one of them).
    4. in my view, the only real concern for the party is if and when Winston Peters steps down and the inevitable succession tomfoolery begins.

    I don't know the guy, but I think it'd take a debilitating disease to get Peters to step down and not just die while in office. I sure as hell don't think that this current National party has a shit show of extracting too many votes from NZ First in the coming election.

    Personally I'm more worried about the Green's electoral support because of how damn flaky it has been during my time around politics. So far it has held up ok. But this is their first time inside a government and partially responsible for what it does, and I always worry about the fashionistas who soft poll for them actually turning up at the polling booths.

    But I agree that Peter Dunne has become a political flake post parliament.

    • Enough is Enough 7.1

      I am hopeful that NZ First slips below the magical 5% mark.

      They are the hand break that is preventing this government from doing anything more just than tinkering.

      CGT, the removal of three strikes, and subsidising farmers under the ETS are three examples of where NZ First is holding things back. They are perfectly entitled to do so, but I think we will see a much more progressive government addressing the real issues we face, if the conservative hand break of Winston was not in the cabinet room.

      • Naki man 7.1.1

        Why would you want the removal of three strikes?
        I don’t think labour want to do any more than just tinkering

        • Rapunzel 7.1.1.1

          Why can't three strikes be applied when fraudsters commit a comprehensive set of offences that often aren't revealed until the full impact of the damage to others is set in place and made clear with little chance of recompense.

          If that was added it might make sense.

      • lprent 7.1.2

        I hope not. If you think short-term, then you might get some advantage. But all that would happen is that you store up political problems for the future. Think of the kinds of fun that a FPP system caused in NZ prior to MMP. Or what is happening under strong FPP systems like the UK and US right now.

        There is a large constituency for the kind of morally conservative and economically left leaning person that NZ First services. If they can’t express themselves politically then they are about the most destructive thing you can have in politics long term as they get more and more frustrated.

        You could say the same about the extreme left and right as well (for me it is often hard to distinguish between them and the other dystopian/utopian anarchists). The difference is that those groups are all too fractured to be of too much real political importance. In any healthy political system their natural level of agreement involves a group of just one, or they go into inherently limited leader-guru-follower modes (ie like the christian political groups tend towards).

        But the kinds of people who support NZ First are naturally collaborative. Under our MMP system, if NZF really died, then they’d head into supporting Labour where most of them came from. The rest were soft Nats and are likely to follow. Then where would Labour be? They’d be railing against having the kinds of policies that Labour needs more than they do already.

        As it is, it is easier to trade at a coalition government level. In the meantime education rather than what would effectively be political coercion works over time and (most importantly) doesn’t frustrate them. They carry on learning as they stay involved rather than trying to fight the battles of some distant mythic past.

        Suffer them use them as the success stick. Know that when you eventually get them to agree to something that they’d have condemned outright a decade ago, that social progress has actually been made, and it can’t be reversed easily.

        Easy wins done by political coercion are pretty useless. I’d suggest that you should not chase their illusions.

  8. Michael 8

    I think Dunne may be correct with his conclusion, although I think his premises are dubious. The outcomes of elections under MMP are always close. Labour hasn't achieved much since taking office, especially for its electoral base (in contrast to the scores it's made for its elite). The Party is already displaying dangerous signs of complacency, which I'd expect to see in a third term government with a few policy wins under its belt, instead of a first-term one that came into office with no real idea of what to do once it scored itself all the perks (hence all the "working groups" that were really only kicks for touch). The Nats, under Crusher, will be formidable campaigners, with all that money and media space. They will play dirty (of course), with lots of dog whistle blowing to their rabid supporters.

  9. WeTheBleeple 9

    People died and continue to die because that moron Dunne legalised synthetic cannabis. A backtrack was too little too late this nasty grass became common and now there's a market for it.

    And of course he was corrupt and compromised.

    https://thestandard.org.nz/father-son-dunne-deals/

    The biggest sack of shit in a bow tie since Peewee Herman.

  10. Phil 10

    We've had eight elections under MMP. There have only been two, maybe three, where the result was not obvious coming into election day. So, on a purely statistical basis, Dunne is probably right.

  11. Formerly Ross 11

    He correctly points out that no minor party that has gone into coalition or support has survived the next election.

    Really? Didn’t the Māori Party support National in 2008, 2011 and 2014? Sure they’re gone now but it took three elections! 🙂

    http://www.maoriparty.org/confidence_supply

  12. Stuart Munro. 12

    It reeks of self-justification – Dunne's small party withered and died of lack of principle. Dunne will be remembered chiefly for his murderous error of legalizing synthetic cannabis.

    Both NZF and the Greens are tender of course. But the former does tend to pick up close to elections, possibly from protest votes. While Winston breathes talk of its demise is premature. The Greens are not without problems, but they have a solid core of support and probably pick up a disproportionate share of new voters. Efforts on climate change will only help them.

    But the important difference is that Labour recognizes it needs its partners and takes some care not to cannibalize them. They are much better treated than the Maori party was, their concerns are heard and some at least are implemented. As a result neither party shows signs of wholesale abandonment by its supporters, though there is plenty of muttering about issues like mass immigration and weak responses to the theft of water rights.

    • Phil 12.1

      the former [NZF] does tend to pick up close to elections, possibly from protest votes.

      This is one of the most frustratingly enduring falsehoods of NZ politics.

      NZF has over-performed what their polling says they 'should' produce on election day just twice (2011 and 2014) and in both cases were legitimate last minute events that got Winston traction which could never be picked up by the last pre-election polls. In all other elections NZF has had an utterly unremarkable run of polling coming into election day.

      • Stuart Munro. 12.1.1

        Mmm – I've heard it said that all minor parties have this characteristic to some degree, so that their mid-term polling is superficially frightening (if one wishes them to survive).

  13. Chris T 13

    I know if doesn't fit your hatred, but Dunne kept Ohariu for so long because he was an excellent electorate MP.

    Unless you think the only reason he spent 33 years winning the thing, including under several various Labour govts and even for a while as a Labour MP, because of National.

    Gee. And the left say National are nasty and greedy.

    As for the election, after Ch Ch if it is close, the COL will have had make a complete hash of things

    • Rapunzel 13.1

      Do you have clarification of the "nasty and greedy", perhaps who you are referring that back to? All I read were a few opinions which is quite normal.

  14. mosa 14

    Just what we need another right wing commentator !!!!
    Of course the election will be close between the two main parties as Nationals vote is still holding up despite some slippage and Bridges less than inspiring performance.

    Winston will be back but the Greens i am not so sure unless they can harness that millennial vote.

    Dunne was always a political prostitute he would go with anyone to feather his own nest.

    His treatment of Helen Kelly will forever tarnish his reputation such as it is.

    And his involvement with a certain political commentator was hid well by Key and the others in return for his political survival.

  15. Awe shucks @ Chris T. I'm so very very sorry if you feel as though I've been a part of something that's been a bit of a meany to you.

    Can you think of anything I could do to make things better?

    • Rapunzel 15.1

      Oh so it was you "Tim"? Chris T seems to have bit of an affection for "nagativity".

  16. McFlock 16

    Yeah, I'm not seeing much of a downside for Labour at this stage. But if they govern alone, or with NZ1 but not the greens, I'd worry that Labour will creep into natlite territory and end up back in Lab5's stale last half.

    Labgrn in 2020 and I reckon we'll see some more fundamental shifts towards social justice.

    • Rosemary McDonald 16.1

      I'd worry that Labour will creep into natlite territory …

      Some of us are seeing them as such now.

      In fact, I almost prefer the Other Mob purely from the standpoint of them being honestly hateful as opposed to this Current Mob's pretense of kindness towards some of their constituents.

      • McFlock 16.1.1

        Yeah, the perfect is often the enemy of the good these days. It's a recurring topic.

        I just hope you don't do a CV and go from "almost" to "actually".

  17. CHCoff 17

    Baring major fraud, wouldn't see it myself.

    The Govt. partys are not in campaign mode, they are governing, so that's probably significant for further bumps in the current environment.

    The % of un polled voters not part of the beltway will be greater this time around, & few to none of those will be National.

    Additionally, NZ1st always does better than is said normally anyway, when has there been an election when NZ1st has not been discounted before hand in the build up?

    On the flip side of that, the Greens are usually/often rated higher than what the results give, which given current beltway placings, could be something requiring abit more thought for them.

  18. swordfish 18

    Bizarro analysis from the fellow with the Hairdo & Bow-Tie.

    Dunne appears to have been either drunk / high / blissfully bewildered or indulging in a deliberate exercise of quite outrageous obfuscation.

    I typed up the following response late last night when I was half-asleep (which is OK when you're 20, you can wing it, but when you're about to hit 55 as I am in a few weeks time then you pretty much only have two world-weary braincells left to rub together as it is, so tiredness can impede clarity & coherence) … but hopefully this'll make some sort of raw commonsense:

    Sitting right at the heart of what appears to be a quite profound confusion is Dunne's strange fixation not only on Seat numbers per se (rather than the comparative Party Vote percentages that determine those seat numbers) but more particularly with the notion of how difficult it will be for Labour at the next Election to pick up an apparently very specific, distinct & crucial little group of seats previously "allocated" to its Junior Coalition Partners. Dunne seems to see the outcome of the next Election as dependent on some sort of cosmic struggle between Labour & National for this idiosyncratic little collection of former NZF/Green seats that are now apparently up for grabs. It's such an odd way of conceiving things.

    Indeed, as I'll show below, it's almost as if he believes we're still living under FPP, with all seats being Geographical Constituencies that need to be won through local campaigning. Perhaps because (with National's conspicuous rubber-stamp endorsement in Ohariu) that's how his one-man UF-band remained in Parliament for all those years.

    He argues that it's likely that either one or both Junior Coalition Partners will fail to make it back after the next Election. I think he's wrong on this … based on comparative historical poll analysis, I've felt for quite some time that both will cross the threshold in 2020, but let's put that to one side for the moment.

    Dunne's curious argument proceeds in the following way: (my comments in parentheses)

    (1) The Ardern Govt has 63 seats. Between them, the Greens & NZF hold 17 of these.

    (2) The "removal" (very odd phrase from Dunne) of these 17 seats, as a result of the two Junior Coalition Partners falling below the 5% threshold, would make Labour's re-election chances "nigh impossible."

    (3) Why ? Because although Labour would "pick up some seats as a consequence" (a remarkably vague formulation … what's Dunne referring to ?), it's very unlikely to pick up "the minimum of 15 it would need to remain in government". (He never comes close to explaining Why this would be such a monumental task or how increased wasted vote in 2020 might impact)

    (4) And, according to Dunne, all this is dependent on the further assumption that "Labour was to hold all of its current 46 seats" in the first place. (Can you see here how he seems to view these seats as Geographical Constituencies ? … it "holds on" to "all of its current 46 seats" & then has to win a bare "minimum of 15" more. This is a very strange misunderstanding of MMP).

    (5) In contrast, 2020 is apparently a much more attractive scenario for the Nats. Assuming the Party "were to hold all its current seats, and regain Botany …", Dunne argues, "it would need to win just four of the nine current New Zealand First/Greens seats to be able to form a government" (But Peter, aren't there 17 seats currently held by the Junior Coalition Partners, rather than 9 ??? … and, more importantly, we're seeing precisely the same bizarre idea that a major party "holds on" to its current seats (as if they're all geographical constituencies won by local MPs) … & then has to win a further group of specific seats that had previously been "allocated" to New Zealand First/Greens).

    (6) "Even if the Greens survived", says Dunne, "and just New Zealand First fell out, National would be in the stronger position of the two main parties to lead the next government." The Nats would need to win just 4 of the 9 seats "currently allocated" to Winston, whereas Labour's task would be "very difficult", needing to pick up "most of the previously allocated New Zealand First seats and then hope the Greens scored at least their number in the present Parliament to have a chance of carrying on in government." (once again, precisely zero explanation offered for Why it's such a "very difficult" goal for Labour … and again Dunne's remarkably odd idea of a very distinct, very specific, almost autonomous, almost geographical little collection of seats being "allocated" to Winston in 2017 and now, under this hypothetical 2020 scenario, apparently up for grabs & absolutely crucial for victory)

    I mean What the Flying … ???

    It's actually remarkably simple, Peter. You're having enormous trouble distinguishing the Wood from the Trees. Everything comes down to the comparative Party Vote % which, in turn, of course, determines overall Seat numbers. That's all you need to worry about.

    If the Ardern Govt Bloc or (as Dunne insists) just Lab+Green (with NZF out) receive a higher proportion of the Party Vote than Nat+ACT … then a Labour-led Government is returned. Plain & simple. No supposedly insurmountable hurdle for Labour, no having to win an impossible majority of some mythical little collection of make-or-break seats (each apparently with their own idiosyncratic name, personality & backstory) specifically "allocated" to Winston in the current Parliament but now up for grabs in 2020.

    Instead, Peter, you need to clear your mind and see each Election as a Blank Slate. Let me repeat that: a Blank Slate.

    If, for instance, Winston failed to make the threshold in 2020 (as you're assuming), and Labour + Greens received say 52% to Nat + ACT's 43% … then a Lab-led Govt will not only be returned but actually with a greater share of seats than those currently held by the entire Govt Bloc to boot !. Simple as that. No former Winston seats to be "reallocated", no Everest to climb, no Gobi Desert to traverse, no Atlantic Ocean to cross, no Mission Nigh Impossible Do or Die scenario for Labour or any such bizarre, meaningless nonsense.

    If you'd said something cogent like I don't think it's likely that Labour & the Greens together can generate enough Party Vote support at the next General Election to win more than 60 seats … then at least you're making a potentially plausible argument. But instead, you've headed down this outrageously convoluted path that muddies & mystifies everything in its wake.

    So I'd suggest the wise thing to do is save a great deal of time & energy by simply having a wee gander at the most recent opinion polls to see who is currently leading in the Party Vote under various scenarios:

    Here are the scenarios (I personally think 2020 is probably going to be an (a)-type scenario, whereas you'd suggest it's more likely be (b), (d), or possibly (c)):

    (a) If all Parties currently represented in Parl are returned in 2020 (Govt Bloc vs Oppo Bloc)

    (b) If NZF fails to make threshold (L+G vs Oppo Bloc)

    (c) If Greens fail to make threshold (L+NZF vs Oppo Bloc)

    (d) If both Govt Junior Partners fail to make threshold (Lab vs Oppo Bloc)

    (e) (same as (d) but in addition … If ACT fails to make it back) (Lab vs Nat)

    Looking at the latest Opinion Polls:

    UMR (July 2019)

    (a) Govt Bloc Lead (over Oppo Bloc) close to 20 points

    (b) Lab+Green Lead (over Oppo Bloc) around 12 points

    (c) Lab+NZF Lead (over Oppo Bloc) about 10 points

    (d) Lab Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 3 points

    (e) Lab Lead (over Nats) 4 points

    Newshub RR (June 2019)

    (a) Govt Bloc Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 22 points

    (b) Lab+Green Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 19 points

    (c) Lab+NZF Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 16 points

    (d) Lab Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 13 points

    (e) Lab Lead (over Nats) 14 points

    One News CB (June 2019)

    (a) Govt Bloc Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 8 points

    (b) Lab+Green Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 3 points

    (c) Lab+NZF Lead (over Oppo Bloc) 2 points

    (d) Oppo Bloc Lead (over Lab) 3 points

    (e) Nat lead (over Lab) 2 points

    In both the latest UMR & Reid Research … you can see that the Ardern Government in all its possible formulations (L+G+NZF / L+G / L+NZF / Lab alone) beat both National & the Oppo Bloc as a whole (massively in the Reid Research).

    In the latest Colmar Brunton, an Ardern-led Govt would be returned in all cases unless both Junior Coalition Partners fell below the threshold. (although, even in that scenario, I suspect it'd actually prove a knife-edge result because Green & NZF deserters are more likely to head Labour's way, thus boosting its vote vis-a-vis the Oppo).

    • Sacha 18.1

      it's almost as if he believes we're still living under FPP

      Yep. That's where I got to, without all the rest. 🙂

      • swordfish 18.1.1

        I can just immediately see how tired I was … outrageously repetitive. Couldn't be arsed editing it this morn. Sad but true.

        • Sacha 18.1.1.1

          Hey I just didn't need the evidence this time to be convinced he was operating on a false premise. How that got waved through any editorial oversight process is another matter.

    • Pat 18.2

      Dunne's a lifetime politician who apparently has thrown his lot in with the opposition (yet again, hard to believe he was ever in Labour) and is contributing to the only viable strategy available to them….attempting to undermine the coalition via its various support bases.

      Nothing new and rather blatant

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    1. On what subject is Paul Henry even remotely worth giving the time of day?a. The state of our nationb. The state of the ACT partyc. How to freak out potential buyers of your gin palace by baking the remains of your deceased parent into its fittings2. Now that New ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    9 hours ago
  • The looting is the point
    Last time National was in power, they looted the state, privatising public assets and signing hugely wasteful public-private partnership (PPP) contracts which saw foreign consortiums provide substandard infrastructure while gouging us for profits. You only have to look at the ongoing fiasco of Transmission Gully to see how it was ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    10 hours ago
  • The Illusion of Power: How Local Government Bureaucrats Overawe Democratically-Elected Councillors..
    The Democratic Façade Of Local Government: Our district and city councillors are democratically elected to govern their communities on one very strict condition – that they never, ever, under any circumstances, attempt to do so.A DISINTEGRATION OF LOYALTIES on the Wellington City Council has left Mayor Tory Whanau without a ...
    13 hours ago
  • Lowlights & Bright Spots
    I can feel the lowlights coming over meI can feel the lowlights, from the state I’m inI can see the light now even thought it’s dimA little glow on the horizonAnother week of lowlights from our government, with the odd bright spot and a glow on the horizon. The light ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    15 hours ago
  • Weekly Roundup 14-June-2024
    Another week, another roundup of things that caught our eye on our favourite topics of transport, housing and how to make cities a little bit greater. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Connor wrote about Kāinga Ora’s role as an urban development agency Tuesday’s guest post by ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    17 hours ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 14
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s moves this week to take farming out of the ETS and encourage more mining and oil and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    17 hours ago
  • Climate policy axed in broad daylight, while taxpayer liabilities grow in the dark
    In 2019, Shane Jones addressed the “50 Shades of Green” protest at Parliament: Now he is part of a government giving those farmers a pass on becoming part of the ETS, as well as threatening to lock in offshore oil exploration and mining for decades. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    18 hours ago
  • Rage Bait!
    Hi,Today’s newsletter is all about how easy it is to get sucked into “rage bait” online, and how easy it is to get played.But first I wanted to share something that elicited the exact opposite of rage in me — something that made me feel incredibly proud, whilst also making ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    18 hours ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Friday, June 14
    Seymour said lower speed limits “drained the joy from life as people were forced to follow rules they knew made no sense.” File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, June 14 were:The National/ACT/NZ First ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    19 hours ago
  • Friendly but frank talks with China Premier
    It sounded like the best word to describe yesterday’s talks between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and his heavyweight delegation of Ministers and officials and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and New Zealand Ministers and officials was “frank.” But it was the kind of frankness that friends can indulge in. It ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    20 hours ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2024
    Open access notables Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems, Farruggia et al., Global Change Biology: We introduce the concept of the lake smoke-day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke-day exposure in North America from 2019 ...
    1 day ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: China’s message to New Zealand – don’t put it all at risk
    Don’t put it all at risk. That’s likely to be the take-home message for New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in his meetings with Li Qiang, the Chinese Premier. Li’s visit to Wellington this week is the highest-ranking visit by a Chinese official since 2017. The trip down under – ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    1 day ago
  • The Real Thing
    I know the feelingIt is the real thingThe essence of the soulThe perfect momentThat golden momentI know you feel it tooI know the feelingIt is the real thingYou can't refuse the embraceNo?Sometimes we face the things we most dislike. A phobia or fear that must be confronted so it doesn’t ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how moderates empower the political right
    Struth, what a week. Having made sure the rural sector won’t have to pay any time soon for its pollution, PM Christopher Luxon yesterday chose Fieldays 2024 to launch a parliamentary inquiry into rural banking services, to see how the banks have been treating farmers faced with high interest rates. ...
    2 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Thursday, June 13
    In April, 17,656 people left Aotearoa-NZ to live overseas, averaging 588 a day, with just over half of those likely to have gone to Australia. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, June 13 ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Our guide to having your say on the draft RLTP 2024
    Auckland’s draft Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) 2024 is open for feedback – and you only have until Monday 17 June to submit. Do it! Join the thousands of Aucklanders who are speaking up for wise strategic investment that will dig us out of traffic and give us easy and ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    2 days ago
  • The China puzzle
    Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Wellington today for a three-day visit to the country. The visit will take place amid uncertainty about the future of the New Zealand-China relationship. Li hosted a formal welcome and then lunch for then-Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in Beijing a year ago. The pair ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy
    This is a re-post of an article from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler published on June 3, 2024. I have an oped in the New York Times (gift link) about this. For a long time, a common refrain about the energy transition was that renewable energy needed to become ...
    2 days ago
  • Life at 20 kilometres an hour
    We are still in France, getting from A to B.Possibly for only another week, though; Switzerland and Germany are looming now. On we pedal, towards Budapest, at about 20 km per hour.What are are mostly doing is inhaling a country, loving its ways and its food. Rolling, talking, quietly thinking. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Hipkins is still useless
    The big problem with the last Labour government was that they were chickenshits who did nothing with the absolute majority we had given them. They governed as if they were scared of their own shadows, afraid of making decisions lest it upset someone - usually someone who would never have ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Exercising with the IDF.
    This morning I did something I seldom do, I looked at the Twitter newsfeed. Normally I take the approach of something that I’m not sure is an American urban legend, or genuinely something kids do over there. The infamous bag of dog poo on the front porch, set it on ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Helm Hammerhand Anime: First Pictures and an Old English ‘Hera’
    We have some news on the upcoming War of the Rohirrim anime. It will apparently be two and a half hours in length, with Peter Jackson as Executive Producer, and Helm’s daughter Hera will be the main character. Also, pictures: The bloke in the middle picture is Freca’s ...
    3 days ago
  • Farmers get free pass on climate AND get subsidies
    The cows will keep burping and farting and climate change will keep accelerating - but farmers can stop worrying about being included in the ETS. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, June 12 were:The ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Six ideas to secure Te Huia’s Future
    This is a guest post by our friend Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which features “musings about public transport and other cool stuff in Aotearoa/ New Zealand and around the globe.” With Te Huia now having funding secure through to 2026, now is ...
    Greater AucklandBy Darren Davis
    3 days ago
  • The methane waka sinks
    In some ways, there may be less than meets the eye to the Government announcement yesterday that the He Waka Eke Noa proposal for farmers to pay for greenhouse gas emissions has been scrapped. The spectre of farmers still having to pay at some point in the future remains. That, ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • At a glance – Does positive feedback necessarily mean runaway warming?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Farmers get what they wanted – for now
    Since entering office, National has unravelled practically every climate policy, leaving us with no effective way of reducing emissions or meeting our emissions budgets beyond magical thinking around the ETS. And today they've announced another step: removing agriculture entirely. At present, following the complete failure of he waka eka noa, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Presumed Innocent?
    The blue billionaireDistraction no interactionOr movement outside these glazed over eyesThe new great divideFew fight the tide to be glorifiedBut will he be satisfied?Can we accept this without zoom?The elephant in the roomNot much happens in politics on a Monday. Bugger all in fact. Although yesterday Christopher Luxon found he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on our doomed love affair with oil and gas
    What if New Zealand threw a fossil fuel party, and nobody came? On the weekend, Resources Minister Shane Jones sent out the invitations and strung up the balloons, but will anyone really want to invest big time in resuming oil and gas exploration in our corner of the planet? Yes, ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    4 days ago
  • Building better housing insights
    This is a guest post by Meredith Dale, senior urban designer and strategist at The Urban Advisory. There’s a saying that goes something like: ‘what you measure is what you value’. An RNZ article last week claimed that Auckland was ‘hurting’ because of a more affordable supply of homes, particularly townhouses ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago
  • Putin would be proud of them
    A Prime Minister directs his public service to inquire into the actions of the opposition political party which is his harshest critic. Something from Orban's Hungary, or Putin's Russia? No, its happening right here in Aotearoa: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Public Service Commission will launch an ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths
    This is a repost from a Yale Climate Connections article by SueEllen Campbell published on June 3, 2024. The articles listed can help you tell fact from fiction when it comes to solar and wind energy. Some statements you hear about solar and wind energy are just plain false. ...
    4 days ago
  • Juggernaut
    Politics were going on all around us yesterday, and we barely noticed, rolling along canal paths, eating baguettes. It wasn’t until my mate got to the headlines last night that we learned there had been a dismayingly strong far right result in the EU elections and Macron had called a ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Numbers Game.
    Respect Existence, Or Expect Resistance? There may well have been 50,000 pairs of feet “Marching For Nature” down Auckland’s Queen Street on Saturday afternoon, but the figure that impresses the Coalition Government is the 1,450,000 pairs of Auckland feet that were somewhere else.IN THE ERA OF DRONES and Artificial Intelligence, ...
    4 days ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on post-colonial blowback.
    Selwyn Manning and I discuss varieties of post colonial blowback and the implications its has for the rise of the Global South. Counties discussed include Palestine/Israel, France/New Caledonia, England/India, apartheid/post-apartheid South Africa and post-colonial New Zealand. It is a bit … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Policy by panic
    Back in March, Ombudsman Peter Boshier resigned when he hit the statutory retirement age of 72, leaving the country in the awkward (and legally questionable) position of having him continue as a temporay appointee. It apparently took the entire political system by surprise - as evinced by Labour's dick move ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • PSA: NZ's Richest Company, Zuru, Sucks
    Hi,Today the New Zealand press is breathlessly reporting that the owners of toy company Zuru are officially New Zealand’s wealthiest people: Mat and Nick Mowbray worth an estimated $20 billion between them.While the New Zealand press loses its shit celebrating this Kiwi success story, this is a Webworm reminder that ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Monday, June 10
    TL;DR: The six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty in the past day to 8:36 pm on Monday, June 10 were:20,000 protested against the Fast-track approval bill on Saturday in Auckland, but PM Christopher Luxon says ‘sorry, but not sorry’ about the need for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • In Defence of Kāinga Ora
    Given the headlines around the recent findings of the ‘independent’ review of Kāinga Ora by Bill English, you might assume this post will be about social housing, Kāinga Ora’s most prominent role. While that is indeed something that requires defending, I want to talk about the other core purpose of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    5 days ago
  • Baby You're A Rich Man
    “How does it feel to beOne of the beautiful peopleNow that you know who you areWhat do you want to beAnd have you traveled very far?Far as the eye can see”Yesterday the ACT party faithful were regaled with craven boasts, sneers, and demands for even more at their annual rally.That ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Stopping a future Labour government from shutting down gas exploration
    A defiant Resources Minister Shane Jones has responded to Saturday’s environmental protests by ending Labour’s offshore oil exploration ban and calling for long-term contracts with any successful explorers. The purpose would be to prevent a future Labour Government from reversing any licence the explorers might hold. Jones sees a precedent ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 2, 2024 thru Sat, June 8, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is Yale Climate Connection's Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths, by ...
    5 days ago
  • Fission by the river
    This is where we ate our lunch last Wednesday. Never mind your châteaux and castles and whatnot, we like to enjoy a baguette in the shadow of a nuclear power plant; a station that puts out more than twice as much as Manapouri using nothing more than tiny atoms to bring ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Fact Brief – Is the ocean acidifying?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by John Mason in collaboration with members from the Gigafact team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is the ocean acidifying? Acidification of oceans ...
    6 days ago
  • 20,000+ on Queen St.
    The largest protest I ever went on was in the mid 90s. There were 10,000 people there that day, and I’ve never forgotten it. An enormous mass of people, chanting together. Stretching block after block, bringing traffic to a halt.But I can’t say that’s the biggest protest I’ve ever been ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Josh Drummond's Columns
    Hi there,I wanted to put all of Josh Drummond’s Webworm pieces all in one place. I love that he writes for Webworm — and all of these are a good read!David.Why Are So Many “Christians” Hellbent on Being Horrible?Why do so many objectively hideous people declare themselves “Christian”?Meeting the Master ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday soliloquy and weekend Pick ‘n’ Mix for June 8/9
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: On reflection, the six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty this week were:The Government-driven freeze in building new classrooms, local roads and water networks in order to save cash for tax cuts is frustrating communities facing massive population ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • The no-vision thing
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • When Journalists are Disingenuous
    Hi,One of the things I like the most about Webworm is to be able to break down the media and journalism a little, and go behind the scenes.This is one of those times.Yesterday an email arrived in my inbox from journalist Jonathan Milne, who is managing editor at Newsroom.I don’t ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    7 days ago
  • Me, elsewhere: Just say you’ll do the thing
    Wrote something over at 1/200 on a familiar theme of mine: The way we frame the economy as a separate, sacred force which must be sacrificed to, the way we talk about criminals as invaders who must be repelled, the constant othering of people on the benefit, people not in ...
    Boots TheoryBy Stephanie Rodgers
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted
    A nice bit of news today: my 4600-word historical fantasy-horror piece, A Voyage Among the Vandals, has been accepted by Phobica Books (https://www.phobicabooks.co.uk/books) for their upcoming Pirate Horror anthology, Shivering Timbers. This one is set in the Mediterranean, during the mid-fifth century AD. Notable for having one of history’s designated ...
    1 week ago
  • Ministerial conflicts of interest
    Since the National government came to power, it has been surrounded by allegations of conflicts of interest. Firstly, there's the fast-track law, which concentrates power in the hands of three Ministers, some of whom have received donations from companies whose projects they will be deciding on. Secondly, there's the close ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The 2024 Budget Forecasts Are Gloomy Prognosis About The Next Three Years.
    There was no less razzamatazz about the 2024 Budget than about earlier ones. Once again the underlying economic analysis got lost. It deserves more attention.Just to remind you, the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU), is the Treasury’s independent assessment and so can be analysed by other competent economists (although ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A government that can't see twenty feet ahead
    There are two failings that consistently characterise a National government. One is a lack of imagination, the other is their willingness to look after their mates, no matter what harm it might do to everyone else.This is how we come to have thousands of enormous trucks carving up our roads. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • A post I hope is incorrect
    In May, we learned that National MP David MacLeod had "forgotten" to declare $178,000 in electoral donations. Filing a donation return which is false in any material particular is a crime, and the Electoral Commission has now referred MacLeod to police, since they're the only people who are allowed to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Māori Cannot Re-Write New Zealand’s Constitution By Stealth.
    The Kotahitanga Parliament 1897: A Māori Parliament – at least in the guise of a large and representative body dedicated to describing the shape of New Zealand’s future from a Māori perspective – would be a very good idea.THE DEMAND for a “Māori Parliament” needs to be carefully unpicked. Some Pakeha, ...
    1 week ago
  • Cowpats and Colonials.
    Dumbtown, is how my friend Gerard refers to people like ZB listeners - he’s not wrong.Normally on a Friday I start by looking at Mike Hosking’s moronic reckons of the week which he vomits down the throats of his audience like helpless baby birds in a nest, grateful for the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on cutting the sick leave of vulnerable workers
    Should sick leave be part and parcel of the working conditions from Day One on the job, just like every other health and safety provision? Or should access to sick leave be something that only gradually accumulates, depending on how long a worker has been on the payroll? If enacted ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    1 week ago
  • Nobody Move: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    So long as we live in a democracy, economic policy can never be anything other than social-democratic.“HEH!”, snorted Laurie, as he waved his debit card over the EFTPOS machine. “Same price as last week. I guess budgets aren’t what they used to be.”“I wouldn’t know,” replied the young barman, wearily, ...
    1 week ago
  • In Search Of Unity.
    Kotahitanga: New Zealand’s future belongs to those who do not fear a nation carved out of unity and solidarity, and are willing to trust the carvers. Some New Zealanders will be required to step up, and others, perhaps for the first time in their lives, will be expected to step ...
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 7-June-2024
    Welcome to another Friday roundup! Here are some recent links and stories that caught our eye, perfectly timed for your watercooler discussions and weekend reading. As always feel free to share more in the comments. Our header image this week is by Patrick Reynolds, and shows Te Komititanga from above. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 7
    As Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, ACT’s Brooke van Velden is fronting proposed changes to sick pay regulations and The Holiday Act. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Did we boil the oceans by cutting pollution?
    Lowering aerosol emissions from shipping has altered clouds, with potentially drastic effects. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:New evidence is increasingly pointing at efforts ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2024
    Open access notables Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment: Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect ...
    1 week ago
  • Fragments
    The best observation I’ve read this week about the deep, profound harm Trump is doingTrump has hurled threats and smears at witnesses, jurors and the judge (including his family)... [he] has tried to intimidate witnesses and delegitimize the New York courts as corrupt. In continuing to incite his mob (that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • March for Nature
    Do do do do do do do doDo do do do do doDi di di di di di di di di di diNature enter me…In 2018 the Labour lead government banned new oil and gas exploration in Aotearoa. A change welcomed by those who care deeply for our environment and ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Thursday, June 6
    The Transport Minister is trying to push through urgent legislation that would allow him to change emissions standards for car imports without approval from Parliament, after only consulting car importers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Just as two major reports showed fossil fuel burning was warming the planet to dangerous levels and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • A Better Broadway: Act 2
    This is a guest post by reader Grant A, the second of a pair about how to fix Broadway. If you missed the beginning of the show, here’s the link to Act 1 from yesterday. Yesterday, I discussed changing traffic circulation around Broadway in Newmarket. This included implementing a car-free ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago
  • National breaks another health promise
    National has broken another manifesto health promise, apparently to save only $550,000. It will now train an additional 25 med students next year rather than the 50 it promised. This comes on top of the delays caused by National’s coalition partners in pushing ahead with the Waikato Medical School and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • Climate Adam: Coping as the world’s best known climate scientist
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Katharine Hayhoe is quite possibly the world's most famous climate scientist. She's produced wide ranging research, and communicated climate change with ...
    1 week ago
  • SIS “evidence” isn’t, again
    Back in 2016, then-Internal Affairs Minister Peter Dunne cancelled a New Zealand woman's passport, claiming she was a terrorist. The basis for his decision was a secret briefing by the SIS, which claimed that if she was allowed to travel, the woman would "engage with individuals who encourage acts of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • As Low As You Go
    Taking you as low as you goAs low as you goA sense of Déjà vu this morning. How many times have I begun a newsletter, “just when you thought they couldn’t go any lower…” Only for the groundhog to reappear, more pissed off than the day before.Another day with headlines ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Wednesday June 5
    TL;DR: The public health costs of human-caused air pollution in Aotearoa-NZ is estimated at $38.8 billion a year because it kills 3,300 people each year, which is almost ten times more than the death toll on roads from accidents. Yet the Ministry for the Environment has just one staff member ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Auckland King’s Counsel Gregory Peter Blanchard as a High Court Judge. Justice Blanchard attended the University of Auckland from 1991 to 1995, graduating with an LLB (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts (English). He was a solicitor with the firm that is now Dentons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Health workforce numbers rise
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says new data released today shows encouraging growth in the health workforce, with a continued increase in the numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives joining Health New Zealand. “Frontline healthcare workers are the beating heart of the healthcare system. Increasing and retaining our health workforce ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Government to overhaul firearms laws
    Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has today announced a comprehensive programme to reform New Zealand's outdated and complicated firearms laws. “The Arms Act has been in place for over 40 years. It has been amended several times – in a piecemeal, and sometimes rushed way. This has resulted in outdated ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Government delivers landmark specialist schools investment
    The coalition Government is delivering record levels of targeted investment in specialist schools so children with additional needs can thrive. As part of Budget 24, $89 million has been ringfenced to redevelop specialist facilities and increase satellite classrooms for students with high needs. This includes: $63 million in depreciation funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Major health and safety consultation begins
    A substantial consultation on work health and safety will begin today with a roadshow across the regions over the coming months, says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden.  This the first step to deliver on the commitment to reforming health and safety law and regulations, set out in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Growing the potential of New Zealand’s forestry sector in partnership
    Forestry Minister Todd McClay, today announced the start of the Government’s plan to restore certainty and confidence in the forestry and wood processing sector. “This government will drive investment to unlock the industry’s economic potential for growth,” Mr McClay says. “Forestry’s success is critical to rebuilding New Zealand’s economy, boosting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Government cancels forestry ETS annual service charges for 2023-24
    Annual service charges in the forestry Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will be cancelled for 2023/24, Forestry Minister Todd McClay says. “The sector has told me the costs imposed on forestry owners by the previous government were excessive and unreasonable and I agree,” Mr McClay says. “They have said that there ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Speech to the LGNZ Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Thank you for having me here today and welcome to Wellington, the home of the Hurricanes, the next Super Rugby champions. Infrastructure – the challenge This government has inherited a series of big challenges in infrastructure. I don’t need to tell an audience as smart as this one that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Government boosts Agriculture and food trade with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard welcomed outcomes to boost agricultural and food trade between New Zealand and China. A number of documents were signed today at Government House that will improve the business environment between New Zealand and China, and help reduce barriers, including on infant formula ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • NZ and China launch Services Trade Negotiations
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