Encouraging polls

Written By: - Date published: 2:53 pm, September 24th, 2012 - 69 comments
Categories: polls, us politics - Tags:

A couple of encouraging polls. Here in NZ, the Labour / Green block continues to chip away at National – and has now taken the lead (pending margin of error of course). The latest TVNZ poll has

National 45% (down 3)
Labour 34% (up 2)
Greens 12% (steady)
Maori Party 3%
NZF 2%
Conservative 2%
Mana 1%
ACT 1%

And in America, “Poll shows Obama support growing”. Gee I wonder how that happened

69 comments on “Encouraging polls”

  1. Tiger Mountain 1

    Righties often point out an alleged contradiction when the ‘left’ calls bullshit on the methodology of polls, including those involving landlines, but then welcomes a lift in opposition parliamentary wing ratings in the very same polls.

    The answer is that with skewed privately owned polls a left lift inspite of the manipulation has to be considered positive news indeed.

    • Dr Terry 1.1

      Whatever the ups and downs of polling methods, this latest result surprises me that the Right should still remain as high as it is! What are we to make of human nature?

      • muzza 1.1.1

        DT – It the politics of the ignorant and corrupted, which is why those who consider themselves right, can relate to it.

        That said the real left is certainly not Labour, who are simply running distraction, as was shown by the leadership pair, and D Parker.

        R0b – Are you saying that the Dems are simply the lessar of two evils?

        Hooten – I hear that you yell alot on the radio? I personally don’t know because I don’t listen to the MSM, its that low grade. Was wondering how you feel being part of an establishment which seeks to deceive, and flat out lie to people…does it make you feel good, or do you actually believe in the systems we have?

      • blue leopard 1.1.2

        “this latest result surprises me that the Right should still remain as high as it is! ”

        Me too.

        A theory I’m deducing: Its all about Junk Politics, which appears to involve activities such as opinion manipulation and appealing to people’s baser/uninformed instincts; where success has nothing to do with the effectiveness of policies or positive direction, solely about getting numbers to be in power.

        When people are not educated in political approaches and when they are busy it leaves them particularly susceptible to this approach; this means the majority of us.

        The sad result of Junk Politics is it effectively condones, thus encourages, our baser natures, and less informed conclusions and thereby brings out the worst in us; this causes a self perpetuating effect to be involved in our political opinions and makes it take a longer time for opinion to shift especially when a party has got the spin “just right”.

        Junk Politics does nothing for the health of the community in which it is conducted in simply benefits the agenda of whomever has the winning spin

  2. Matthew Hooton 2

    This is great news for David Shearer and shows Labour has the right man in charge. His strategy is working.

    • r0b 2.1

      Feeding your own conspiracy theory meme Matthew? Bit narcissistic.

    • Tom Gould 2.2

      Nice try, Matthew, but a little obvious don’t you think?

    • Carol 2.3

      As to whom poll respondents would prefer to be prime minister, support for John Key was down one point but still strong at 44%.

      David Shearer’s support was down one point to 12%, the second month in a row that his numbers have dipped.

      • Dr Terry 2.3.1

        I suppose the masses who have voted with their feet (aussie) helps keep Keys polling high, but, even so, I have to wonder about the characters of so many New Zealand voters when I consider all the terrible things that have happened (and are happening) under the Key reign since November last. They are, of course, living in the “paradise of fools”.

        • blue leopard 2.3.1.1

          Yes totally agree Dr Terry. I recently had the misfortune to witness some shocking dinosaur attitudes (rural NZ) and while recovering from the horror I pondered how this might be what is being reflected in the polls.

        • Colonial Viper 2.3.1.2

          Dr Terry. Ordinary NZers used to receive solid left wing political-economic education via unions and other left wing organisations.

          Today they get it from TV1 and the NZ Herald. Enough said.

    • National has an absolute nightmare of a year and Labour is 11 points behind … 

      I think it best that Labour does not take advice from Hoots. 

      • McFlock 2.4.1

        I dunno. The trend from nov2011 seems pretty steady in this poll – and it overcounted the tories by 3% vs the election.
            
        The thing to remember is that the tories are basically the nats. And it has NZ1 on 2%, just like it did before the last election. 
                     
        All said and done, if I were labour I’d be cautiously optimistic. 

      • King Kong 2.4.2

        I would also be careful about listening to a guy who decimated his own political ambitions by viciously bagging the guy who eventually won the leadership race. The dream of personal power only returns with Cunners at the helm.

    • gobsmacked 2.5

      Hi Matthew – missed you on Radio NZ this morning …

      Remember “Nixon to China”? You haven’t used that line lately.

      Given the current state of Key-Maori releations, has it been replaced by “LBJ to (bomb) Vietnam”?

      • mike e 2.5.1

        I’m suffering from lbl lol

      • North 2.5.2

        Hooten is a nasty, pompous wee shout down boy whose immaturity never ceases to amaze me. He hasn’t progressed beyond snotty little self-satisfied president of the Young Nats. Keep it up Matty Boy. You’re an emabassrassment !

    • Anne 2.6

      Hooton ran Shearer down Monday week ago on the Radio NZ political spot.

      • Dr Terry 2.6.1

        Look, let’s be quite clear, Hooton and his kind are delighted to see Shearer more secure in his job. Does anyone think National wants to see a strong Leader of the Opposition who might conceivably cope with Key & co?

    • dancerwaitakere 2.7

      I really think that what National needs is to have Melissa Lee in charge.

      That would surely result in a bounce in their support.

      Look, clearly I have no interest in ANYTHING other than good Government. Melissa Lee would provide that. She would be the right woman at the top of National.

    • fatty 2.8

      “This is great news for David Shearer and shows Labour has the right man in charge. His strategy is working.”

      Nice one Hooton…thanks for your input. Got any other ideas for Labour?…maybe kill some babies on live TV?
      You really are comic gold.

  3. Craig Glen Eden 3

    Mathews just shit scared that eventually Cunliffe will be Labours leader and then Keys number is well and truly up. You would have to be a total idiot to believe Mathew Hooten has any interest in Labour doing well when he is such a National Cheerleader and Keys pr. It will be great news when National are on 33 and Labour are on 45 Mathew, then you can through a party aye.

    • gobsmacked 3.1

      Matthew may be evil, but he’s not stupid.

      He knows that Shearer faffing around can only be good for other opposition parties – such as NZ First. They voted for the latest Bennett nonsense in Parliament last week, a warning sign to those on the “left” who think Winston is nailed-on to go with Labour and the Greens.

      • fatty 3.1.1

        “Matthew may be evil, but he’s not stupid.”

        True…its pretty obvious he is taking the piss and having a laugh about how National chose the Labour leader.
        The sad thing is that Shearer and Co are probably having a sing-a-long around a camp fire, and are patting themselves on the back for getting the thumbs-up from Hooten.

    • David H 3.2

      Hootens interested in nothing but Hooten. I saw him on TV the other day and he is a loud mouthed, bully boy, who has no interest in other peoples opinions.

    • Dr Terry 3.3

      Good, CGE! You have got it right!

    • David H 3.4

      The sooner this happens the better Shearer is NOT a leader.

  4. Populuxe1 4

    Colmar-Brunton polls are only slightly less accurate than reading the tea leaves.

    • lprent 4.1

      Yes. But the trends are of interest. It is a pity that kiwipollguy appears to have stopped in April after ritualistically writing on his last post

      I guess I will have to go back to semi-regular once-per-month or so updates.

      Whenever anyone writes that on a blog these days I assume we will never hear from them again?

      Is anyone else doing the trend/margin of errors stuff on the polls other than Roy Morgan? Morgan does it frequently enough that you can see actual trends and they graph their previous polls for that fast look at the trends and get an idea of the actual bouncing (and ignore the editorialising that passes for ‘analysis’*).

      The other polls are just a pain…

      * The ‘headline’ at Roy Morgan’s website on the search page is a classic example it screams “NATIONAL (46.5%) INCREASES STRONG LEAD OVER LABOUR (31%)” for the above poll. Obviously written by a political idiot who still thinks than NZ is in a FPP political system. The actual poll analysis reads “If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll says an election result would be ‘too close to call’.”. While that is also bullshit because people actually firm up their ‘intentions’ (actually in my view usually become more willing to state one) closer to elections and the results often differ radically over the last few months of an election.

      • Dr Terry 4.1.1

        True, memories are dreadfully short, count on that in election year. National will be all sweetness and light in 2014. The punishment is likely to cease following 2013, but continue until then. Sorry, but I fear that results might be radically different in the months preceding the election – for the worse!

    • mike e 4.2

      The tea party Act don’t read can’t read can’t remember,Were you using your crystal ball to find out popuganda

  5. higherstandard 5

    The US polls may be worth mentioning at only just over a month out from their election although whether a democrat or a republican gets in it will make sod all difference to the man in the street in the US let alone elsewhere in the world.

    NZ political polls are pointless over a year out from an election. I’d like to see the bloody things banned so we don’t have to have them shoved down a throats ad infinitum each time we switch on the TV or radio coming in to the election next year.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      although whether a democrat or a republican gets in it will make sod all difference to the man in the street in the US let alone elsewhere in the world.

      QFT.

    • Lanthanide 5.2

      The only US polling I bother paying attention to is here:
      http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

      Recently (last few weeks) I’ve seen a lot of headlines saying either Obama or Romney is picking up pace and when looking at 538 at the time it doesn’t support the headline at all.

      • mike e 5.2.1

        Lanth how many of Obamas supporters are going to turn out as the repuplicans are trying to make it mandatory to have an identity card

    • Draco T Bastard 5.3

      I’d like to see the bloody things banned so we don’t have to have them shoved down a throats ad infinitum each time we switch on the TV or radio coming in to the election next year.

      Well, that’s something that you and I agree on.

      • Colonial Viper 5.3.1

        Banned for a week before election date. Give us one week to focus on the issues and the pollies, not the opinion polls.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.3.1.1

          No, just ban the things. After all, they were the cause of 1/3rd of the non-voters not voting.

  6. BernyD 6

    The conservative NZers are living up to their name, at least the polls reflect their hearts.
    But what are their minds saying ?
    Civilised or Violent?
    We know which one their heart desires, But we can’t “Smack it into them M8!”

  7. gobsmacked 7

    Here’s another encouraging poll –

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4826/

    Encouraging for Gillard, but also a reminder for NZ’s opposition … the “tide” is a misleading metaphor, because although it may be going out on an incumbent, that is not inevitable. It can also turn back, towards the government, if the leader of the opposition is derided and dismissed by the voters. Tony Abbott could still lose the election for the Coalition (which is why he’ll probably be dumped by his caucus). NZ Labour take note.

    • mike e 7.1

      Too true Gobs.
      Boat people and the sky not falling in , the anti Gina Reinhardt thing , Tony Abbots foot in mouth Disease and the big one States run by the right are causing a federal back lash with Austerity programs has Julia on the up for now.
      Obama is in the drivers seat for now as Gaffe prone Romney is becoming despised by his own!

  8. captain hook 8

    even the grass roots of the national party know that this government is composed of manques, basically crooked and on the way out.

  9. Nature doesn’t care which way you vote, you can pick Tweedledum or Tweedledumer it doesn’t matter to nature, or reality. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVSCA0z8ZjM&feature=plcp
    You can vote for the golly green giant or Jesus Christ, it is going to make zero difference, as predicted by Richard Heinberg back in around 2001 “we will vote for red necked Nazis, if they will promise a way ‘out’ or way to maintain business as usual
    Obommer is being ruled by the same people as Key (and as Clark was), non of them noticed the polar ice diapering, that is for sure.
    For everyone to get a fair share of the cake, we would need at least 5 planets worth of ‘cake’.
    Every politician that promises you something better if you vote for them is a delusional liar, and believing them just make delusional fools out of most of you.
    If at the end of 2013 or 2014 you have 10% less ‘self worth’ then consider yourself lucky.
    As George Carlin said “You go out on election day, and have a swell time, I will be at home doing basically the same as you, but I will have a solution at the end”
    Every politician is backing the growth based ponzi savings scam Kiwi Saver, while they remain silent on this con, non of them is worth being called ‘honorable’ that is for sure.
    The peoples representative, yeah right.

    • blue leopard 9.1

      “we will vote for red necked Nazis, if they will promise a way ‘out’ or way to maintain business as usual”

      Interesting; sounds like an accurate prediction. I agree with a lot of your sentiments yet am averse, however, to the likely consequences of believing it makes no difference who to vote for i.e not voting at all. While we have this system I still think we MUST vote; there are plenty of parties to vote for; the more people who vote and vote with integrity one never knows who might get more influence, even some of the smaller parties, just so long as more of us VOTE.

      • Robert Atack 9.1.1

        But but but, if they are ALL lying, who do you trust with your vote?
        And how do you separate the liars, if they are all preaching from the same book?
        IE Growth is guaranteed, so all you hard working Kiwis will see a return on your investments in Kiwi Saver …………… which is a lie.
        And if they believe their own bullshit, doesn’t that make them even less deserving of my vote?
        They are all so utterly fucking stupid and useless, understanding reality and the facts of nature I would have to have my head read if I placed my trust in the incompetents we have in parliament.

        • blue leopard 9.1.1.1

          Robert Atack

          While we have a system of voting for “representatives” (cough), unless you vote for the closest to your set of values you STILL affect the decision by not voting. I.e approx 30% of NZ didn’t vote last election, by doing so they effectively said “we’ll go with the status quo”.

          You can’t get around this fact, and I think with the diversity of parties that were available this last election, I find it appalling that people didn’t vote.

          Even if it were for a small party, this still effects the percentages and even if a small party doesn’t get in, it still sends a message to politicians as to what are favoured NZ issues, for example: The Conservative Party’s 59,237 votes as opposed to 23, 899 votes for Act (and we all know a percentage of this number were Nat voters in Epsom). This could be a message that perhaps there were right wing people out there wanting a right wing party yet who didn’t agree with asset sales, and this despite the danger of not having one’s vote represented. (assumption I know).

          Mana’s election night party was on a street to align with the Occupy Wall Street movement; a movement that rails against all negative corporate effects on our societies. Which I would have thought went along with what you are railing against. (Why in the world Mana didn’t get more votes I’ll never know). I don’t know if there is anywhere else in the world that has had a political party so openly support this movement.

          If you don’t support those speaking out, you are simply part of the problem. There is simply no option of not effecting the results. If the party you vote for fucks up, vote for another in 3 years.

          You simply can’t NOT effect the outcome by not voting, rather you simply are going along with what the majority is voting for. This is not an effective or acceptable course of action.

          • Robert Atack 9.1.1.1.1

            If every politician is a liar then you have to be brain dead to give them a vote.
            Lets pretend as the environmentally, and economically aware vegetarian I decided to vote. Please tell me who?
            Because as far as the environment goes this growth based system is killing it, so I couldn’t vote for a party that promoted growth based anything, such as a ponzi savings scam like Kiwi Saver.
            And as I am also aware global peak in crude oil BACK in 2005 started the end of economic growth, so again why would I vote for any politician that promotes something that clearly can not happen ie a payout from a growth based retirement scam.
            They are ALL standing up and saying the Earth is flat, and you think voting is going to change something?
            How?
            We are all being severely shafted, all voting does is lets you pick the colour of the lubricant.;)
            apologies in advance

            Oh and what was that about the Arctic, fast becoming a summer swimming hole? Is any politician worth a vote talking about that? That fucking Aussie clown from the Greens is only talking about reducing the NZ dollar, so we can keep on GROWING …. the co head clown of the Greens is pro GROWTH, as they all showed when they voted in Kiwi Saver “it will be so nice investing in ‘sustainable’ developments” FFS anything that makes a ‘profit’ fucks the environment.

            So yeah voting sure helps.

            • Populuxe1 9.1.1.1.1.1

              If so many on the left had bothered to vote in the last election, we probably wouldn’t still be dealing with this pack of dickheads now – that’s what your fastidious conscientiousness achieves.

              • Pop you are not paying attention to what I’m saying.
                They all support a lie
                Even Hone keeps mum about the BS that is Kiwi Saver ….. and it was ‘the left’ that created this con.

            • blue leopard 9.1.1.1.1.2

              Robert Atack

              I agree with Populuxe 1 here although am sympathetic to your concerns, especially about the growth meme. I just think it pays to remember Rome wasn’t built in a day

              I don’t imagine that any one party would change the system overnight, I would imagine change would happen in increments and if people support the “voices” that are moving toward new approaches, there is more chance of that happening.

              Had people come out and voted, we might not be digging ourselves deeper into the growth meme and other problems.

              I think you are shooting yourself in the foot by focussing on a couple of issues Kiwi Saver and growth (all be it an important one) and believing there is no point in voting for the reasons I have conveyed.

          • Robert Atack 9.1.1.1.2

            Occupy Wall Street movement; a movement that rails against all negative corporate effects on our societies.

            I look at the ‘Occupy movement’ as like a bunch of 3 year olds all crying and yelling “I want”, “It’s not fair” bla bla bla
            The very simple fact is if we did divide the 1%’s fortune amongst the masses, all we would do is speed up our collective suicide.
            The first place they should have ‘occupied’ was the maternity wards, because it is the constant creation of more humans that feeds this death machine.
            As far as stopping the corporates, ‘we’ haven’t a snow balls chance. In fact the fastest way to bring this system down is to use it.
            I wonder how many Green voters were involved in the Occupy movement? And that the Greens ‘by there support of KS’ actually support ‘the corporates’ ??????????????????
            So in the end voters get what they deserve … a bunch of myopic fools as so called leaders.
            But please don’t blame me if I can’t bring myself to support the BS.

            • Populuxe1 9.1.1.1.2.1

              [deleted]

              [lprent: Wishing death or destruction on others or even urging that they consider it as an option is over the behaviour limits (as has been established with me as test case on both sides). You have been warned. ]

              • I will just lay here like a dead messenger 🙂

                • fatty

                  haha…I hear your message and agree with you. I think the same – too many people. But I think that the best way to reduce the world population is to create equality and raise most people’s quality of life so that large families are no longer a necessity.
                  I also think that voting is not a waste of time, I’d rather live in Hone’s NZ compared to what the other parties have to offer. And to move away from capitalism/consumerism, this can only be done gradually…or we wait for the mega-crash, which could be a long way off if it ever happens.
                  So I vote, and I moan, but I am not expecting a top down solution in my lifetime…and being involved with ground up movements does create change, its what I see as the best way, but always looking for more?

                  • blue leopard

                    +1

                    And Robert Atack
                    Just wondering if you ever viewed Democrats for NZ policies? I can’t load their page today but found this site in case you hadn’t.

                    • Democrats, etc have some good ideas regarding money, and if implemented 100 or so years ago, might have done some good, but maybe not, if their ideas helped even out the global wealth, then the planet would be consumed faster, after all who doesn’t want a 50 inch flat screen, or a nice car, and a garage to park it in?
                      I stood for the Direct Democracy party back in 2005 ish(?) they had a 2% transaction tax idea, it stacked up and all that, but it also depended on consuming the environment, so again spreading the buying power and increasing the speed we are going extinct.
                      We are pasted peak energy, if it wasn’t for the economic crash we would all know and understand peak oil production, but fortunately the global economic crash, has reduced demand for oil, so everything is just holding together, it certainly isn’t going back to the days of 3+% growth.

                    • blue leopard

                      @ Robert Atack

                      An interesting report on the different transaction taxes and their different effects here in case you are interested

                      http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1154.pdf

                      You sound informed and hope you keep chipping away, I think there is hope if we all just keep pushing for real approaches and encouraging those of our politicians who show the most movement in that direction.

                      I am yet to believe that ALL politicians lack integrity; I still see a few that appear to be genuinely passionate about what they are doing. At present they are working within the confines of this growth meme at; yet this is not to say that things may progress in a more realistic direction. My view is we just have to keep chipping away at them over this/these issue/s.

                      Change takes a long time not least because it takes a while for a “tipping point” of numbers of people to effect it; and one only has to acknowledge the time it takes for oneself to shift one’s paradigm to realize this is a slow process; however whats our other option? Giving up is simply to go along with the status quo; and this is simply not an acceptable option.

  10. tracey 10

    I wld be interested in any polling in chchch.

  11. tracey 11

    Ra. Sadly i think you are right… For me the last hope to try and keep some integrity in the system is to vote green… But until they have actual power who knows where their principles will go. The mp started from a point of principle and appear to have moved to ends justify the means.

  12. ScottGN 12

    Encouraging polls out of Britain as well. Latest Guardian/ICM poll has Labour on 41% with a solid 10 point lead over the Conservatives. It’s in line with other recent polls too including in The Telegraph.
    Worth mentioning I guess only because not so long ago Ed Miliband was thought to be totally hopeless and out of his depth etc up against Dave and SamCam.

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      I greatly enjoyed Ed Milliband’s clear, strong, articulate stances during the Labour UK leadership selection process. Left wing, with clear repudiations and limitations placed on the market driven neoliberal model.

  13. Poission 13

    The horizon poll is out it was conducted overnight,it reduced nats by 1% Peters was the big mover.

    Interesting is two points .

    1) National has the support of 24.8% of people aged 18+, down from 32.31% at the 2011 general election.

    2) National has the support of 68.3% of those who voted for it in 2011. Its voters have not so much moved to other parties but to being not sure: 18% now say they don’t know how they will vote.

    had enough and no plan b

    Here the potential is for the opposition to step up and show some leadership,the populace has little confidence in the incumbents.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1209/S00329/job-losses-spy-claims-1-vote-support-change-overnight.htm

  14. BernyD 14

    Humble Opinion,

    My thoughts keep hinting that the Greens / Labour / anyone else are about to start thinking about the initial steps of their statutory plans, and start openly canvassing Nationals support for them.

    They wont table the entire plan, just the Logical first steps.

    Giving themselves the opportunity to fine tune them as they offer them up.

    They’ve got all the evidence, provided by National and some damn good reporting. It was known but off the record, now it’s not.

    I think they’ll have the bit between their teeth shortly :-p, Aye Bill.

    The Nats’ll have to ask for the rest.

    PS.
    Yas should take note that there is peoples lives at stake behind the Dotcom stuff, and the so called indifference you face is based on that fact, not some “Off The Record” deal.

  15. gobsmacked 15

    Latest poll bad news for Key:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4827/

    The party votes jump around, but the declining confidence rating is the big story.

    Scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the long-term trend.

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