Hickey’s chart of the week

Written By: - Date published: 3:32 pm, April 28th, 2017 - 16 comments
Categories: im/migration, nz first, polls - Tags: , , , ,

16 comments on “Hickey’s chart of the week ”

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  1. The decrypter 1
    28 April 2017 at 3:46 pm

    Eh, What does it mean? Tell me -tell me please.

  2. Anne 2
    28 April 2017 at 4:08 pm

    It tells me the rises and falls of NZ First’s popularity in the past 20 years has roughly equated with the rises and falls of the rates of migration to NZ. That is, when the number of immigrants arriving here sharply rises, so does NZ First’s polling figures?

    It’s a funny old world. 😎

    • dukeofurl 2.1
      28 April 2017 at 4:18 pm

      Its also a chart of NZ First being in or out of government.

      In government late ninetys , then out, then in then out.
      Easy

  3. mac1 3
    28 April 2017 at 4:25 pm

    I’d say that also important is to read that chart comparing the level of NZF support against the government of the time. During Labour’s 1999-2008 NZF stayed lower with some short spikes whereas during the eights years of this current National government the NZF number has gone up.

    That figure is higher under National. For me that raises two questions. Is this due to National’s immigration policies, or dissatisfaction with Labour? Secondly, is the drop in Labour support in the last eight years also due to NZF doing better for what ever reason?

    I don’t think that voters have gone to NZF from Labour because Labour in 1999-2008 was providing the kind of anti-immigration policies that some NZF voters wanted then, and have gone to NZF under National as a result of National’s high immigration figures.

    This chart suggests to me that Labour should be looking to recapture some of the NZF vote.

    There are also spikes as you’d expect around election years 2005,2008,2011, 2014. Minor parties do better in election years.

    • Anne 3.1
      28 April 2017 at 5:29 pm

      This chart suggests to me that Labour should be looking to recapture some of the NZF vote.

      I think that is precisely what Andrew Little is doing. 😉

      • Phil 3.1.1
        28 April 2017 at 7:38 pm

        You say that like it’s a good thing.

        • mac1 3.1.1.1
          28 April 2017 at 9:43 pm

          Yes it’s a good thing- depends on how, why and with what motivation- like anything in life.

          The chart shows that NZF have taken NZLP voters. I don’t believe that all NZF supporters are racist, redneck, nationalist, or populist. They can be won back by decent, fair and sound politics, by humanitarian and people-based beliefs, by appealing to the community-minded, social egalitarian philosophy which is frequently absent from present government policies,, and then only there because its has to be as the focus groups have told them.

          Because that’s where I believe Labour sits, and fair and decent politics will appeal to those fair and decent folks who at present favour NZF. When they become aware of the danger of the aberrant side of Winston Peters, they hopefully will shift.

          That is Little’s, and Labour’s, job-persuading voters for other parties to change to Labour. Yes, Phil, that’s a good thing. Remember, also, that many voters have a slew of reasons, and policies, that they are motivated by when voting- good and ill.

  5. peterlepaysan 5
    28 April 2017 at 7:47 pm

    Ahem. Co-relation is not causation.

  6. The decrypter 6
    28 April 2017 at 8:26 pm

    Nick smith said its an up side down chart.

  7. mosa 7
    28 April 2017 at 10:57 pm

    Just off topic here you could argue that apart from immigration being associated with the rise of NZF support they also went up during Labour’s time in office and polled well between 2002-07 providing a home for conservative voters.

  8. Philj 8
    30 April 2017 at 11:03 am

    Interesting. What does it mean? Good question, with little chance of unbiased, independent and intelligent analysis. Who do all these migrants vote for? Hmmm.

  9. Smilin 9
    1 May 2017 at 7:43 pm

    associated with this is to me is the failings of our neo liberal system being exposed with spikes to alternative reasoning by NZF, hence the votes in relation to actions by our two major parties when in govt that signify dissatisfaction with immigration and its restrictions it has placed on indigenous populations in NZ
    05 to 011 the effects on housing were not as great until the immigration was ramped up and we really knew what was going on with the economy and all the other bs from the govt figures began to fall like a house of cards .
    But the damage is done and now we have a long term situation which may sadly never be fixed and we should prepare ourselves for the worst