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About the latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, January 28th, 2022 - 52 comments
Categories: act, Christopher Luxon, covid-19, greens, health, jacinda ardern, labour, national, political parties, Politics, polls - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton (now Kantar) poll has now been released and some of the commentary and analysis is pretty ordinary.

Labour is down 1% from December to 40%.  National is up 4% to 32%, it is amazing what not looking like a shambolic shit show does for your support.  The Greens are stable on 9% and Act has dropped 3% to 11%.  The change to Labour’s support and between the left block and the right block is 1%, within the margin of error.  Which really makes you question some of the overblown hyperbole thrown at the topic by amongst others dare I say it Radio New Zealand.

The economic outlook is pessimistic which is not surprising given that the country and the world is still struggling with a full blown pandemic.  And clearly for part of the population continued restrictions are morale sapping even though these measures have saved the country from thousands of deaths and even though the economy is still in remarkably good shape, especially compared to overseas economies.

Ardern’s preferred Prime Minister ranking is down 4 points to 35% and Luxon is up to 17%, still behind what Judith Collins was achieving.

The use of some of the language such as the word “slump” is terribly misplaced.

All in all, given the current state of the country I would have thought that a greater fall would have occurred.  Presuming that the country comes through the latest incursion Labour will be fine and National will continue to struggle.

52 comments on “About the latest Colmar Brunton poll ”

  1. Robert Guyton 1

    All ACT can do to arrest its decline is criticise the Government more; more than Luxon!

    Come on, Seymour, make the effort!

    • Corey Humm 1.1

      Wait til the hate speech legislation comes out this year, with Kris leading the charge and the government barely able to explain what they wanna do it's gonna be a shit show. Acts going to explode.

      Don't be fooled by the nutters on Twitter/social media , most of us gen y and gen z may be economically left wing but most of are socially libertarian (ie pro free speech) the pearl clutchers who get accused of being millennials are usually gen x or just a tiny percentage of our generation.

      Since there's no party on the left that is defiantly free speech I can see act gaining a lot of votes on this issue.

      I think TOP could actually position itself as a radical centerist free speech party because the left is sadly turning into the conservative christian mom's who listened to records backwards and blamed art video games comedy heavy metal, rap, movies for all societies sins and is unable to make an argument in favor of free speech. anyone remember when the left used to be the proudly subversive side that liked offensive art books music and took pride in having copies of objectionable music books art comedy etc

      • tc 1.1.1

        There's alot a space for other parties to operate in with this centrist frog march underway across the globe.

        Be nice to see one here however knowing our shallow pool it'll probably be faith driven rather than social issues like poverty, housing, climate etc

      • Rawiri 1.1.2

        Ha, all I see is a certain sector of society that want racist, bigotted, anti-LGBTQIA, anti-feminism, xenophobic, anti-muslim, anti-disabilities, anti-beneficiary, anti-immigration speech to run free reign. Sad. Bring on the Hate Speech legistlation. Aotearoa (New Zealand) need to join the grown-ups. I await the hate speech coming my way smiley

        • GreenBus 1.1.2.1

          Yup, I look at this (large sector) the same as you and hope the legislation helps to stifle the a-holes out there.

    • peter sim 1.2

      He is trying, (VERY).

    • peter sim 1.3

      He is trying, VERY.

  2. Powerman 2

    Bugger the polls and the commentators; this poll tells us very little apart from RNZ and others beating up a story there is nothing in this poll to make the right-wingers smile.

    • Tricledrown 2.1

      The right has stopped the rot now its up to Labour to keep the economy in good shape and deliver on some policy.

    • Grantoc 2.2

      The most significant thing the poll tells me is that brand Ardern is on the wane. Therefore Labour is on the wane. I expect this trend to continue to strengthen in future polls. Actually had polling been done this week with results being announced next week, brand Ardern and Labour would have gotten a worse result than the one released last night.

      The other trend that is significant is that increasingly the electorate sees National as the better economic managers; this will impact labour's popularity further as inflation begins to bite.

  3. tsmithfield 3

    Probably one of the key factors the government does need to be concerned about is that the gap between the left and right blocks is now only 6%.

    That means it only takes a 3% swing for the right block to be on level pegging with the left.

    That might not be such a concern for the government if the economic outlook was rosy and they were going to have a huge war chest of cash to splash around on promises.

    However, there are dark clouds on the horizon, and the cupboards are likely to be fairly bare when the election comes around. So, I think the government should be worried.

    • Tricledrown 3.1

      The Maori Party are in that mix so both National and Labour will be courting Maori.Will Seymour undo Nationals ability to court the Maori Party.

      • Blazer 3.1.1

        Good luck with National achieving that!

        I doubt the M.P would be interested.

        • tsmithfield 3.1.1.1

          Yes, I agree that it is untenable for the M.P. to go with National.

          • Tricledrown 3.1.1.1.1

            John Key had the Maori Party in his coalition hence the anti smoking laws.

            If National need to close a smaller gap after the election they will include the Maori Party.

            But it would mean National would have to stop bagging Maori initiatives and call off ACT'S anti Maori rhetoric so The right block can take the govt benches.

            Is thePower of being in govt for ACT is it enough. Seymour saying we need to help Maori out of povery to their rightful place would outflank Labour's pathetic efforts on child poverty and homelessness.

            Other Maori seats are vulnerable to the Maori Party.

        • observer 3.1.1.2

          A small but important point: when Key courted TPM he knew they would be in Parliament (Turia's seat was safe). Less certain that they will be there in 2023.

          (this is one of my little bugbears, the poll has no info about electorates, it's only an editorial decision to assume outcomes. Might as well assume Auckland Central, or any other electorate).

          • lprent 3.1.1.2.1

            I think that the only seat that any smaller party currently has a chance in would be Epsom. Which I wonder how long it is before National decides to reclaim it?

            It'd have to be a hell of a candidate even for TMP to collect a seat at this point.

            • Ad 3.1.1.2.1.1

              You forgot Auckland Central

              • alwyn

                No, what I think has been forgotten is that ACT is now a bigger Parliamentary Party that are the Greens. I think that was written thinking that ACT were still the mini-party of the 10 years before 2020 and that the Greens were much larger and not really a "smaller" party.

                On the other hand, and it is quite likely, he forgot all about the current MP for Auckland Central. She, and the whole Green Party seem to have vanished as far as showing any political life since the last election. When was the last time you saw a speech or announcement from any of them?

              • lprent

                For the Greens? They probably don't need it based on the Green polling.

                I rather suspect that neither Helen White nor Labour isn't that interested in stepping back.

                Which likely means the three way split that happened last election is much less likely to happen this time. National voters don't have the vision of their favourite local MP Nikki Kaye to look back on – their behaviour will change because they came in third last time. I suppose you could argue that was a covid-19 result – but it has been a three-way split almost all of the way through Nikki Kaye’s time as a local MP.

                Have a look at 2020 election results

                MELLOW, Emma (National) 9775
                SWARBRICK, Chlöe (Green) 12631
                WHITE, Helen (Labour) 11563

                National Party 7680
                Green Party 6937
                Labour Party 16751

                How many of those National voters will just want to get rid of their local Green MP? There wasn't much of margin between Helen and Chlöe.

        • Corey Humm 3.1.1.3

          The Maori party have already said they are in interested in working with National. national, act and Maori party worked together in harmony for 9 years , while the Maori party genuinely hates Labour and has been incredibly OTT with it's criticism of Labour. It accuses Labour of things like genocide, very rarely do you see the Mp leaders attacking Nat/Act mps but they regularly venomously attack labour mps on social media. Act is far less crazy than it was in 08, and just like the greens didn't do a deal with nzf they did a deal with labour, Maori party won't be doing a deal with act they'll be doing a deal with national..

          I genuinely believe the MP will go with National given a choice, they knew their continued cooperation with the nats was destroying their party after 2011 but still kept going back and i think they like National better cos national doesn't stand in the Maori seats.

      • Bearded Git 3.1.2

        Tricle-I don't think the MP will forget Seymour's "thug" remark.

        • Tricledrown 3.1.2.1

          Seymour ACT Party has had 2 massive drops in popularity in a very short time. By the time the election comes round ACT could easily be back to under 5% the Maori Party could have as many seats given the disaster of the Covid vaccine roll out.

          The disaster of homelessness.

          The disaster of increasing child Poverty.

          Maori are far worse off Labour has done Sweet F A to help Maori.

          Labour's policy has benefited the millionaires and billionaires their wealth has gone up nearly double.

          Maori have lost out big time during the property boom and Covid.

          • Bearded Git 3.1.2.1.1

            Tricle-House building and consents are actually going ahead rapidly now. We all have to hope this has some effect on house prices, rent costs and homelessness. There are numerous online sources backing this up.

            I'm hoping in the coming year Labour will take some concrete measures to alleviate the uneven spread of wealth in NZ, probably through benefit rises.

            Really we need the Greens to be in coalition with Labour, and maybe the MP, for any serious action to be taken on inequality. People like Robertson and Parker, who pull many of the money strings, are Centrist (notice the capital C) and will seldom veer from the status quo.

      • Patricia Bremner 3.1.3

        The Maori Party has said "Luxon is Collins without the wig", they would not go with National… Act is not even a consideration.

        • Ross 3.1.3.1

          What people say and do can be poles apart. And, no, the Maori Party didn’t say what you’ve quoted. One MP said that. A single MP doesn’t necessarily represent the entire party.

  4. Ad 5

    Labour will likely need a bit of insurance with the Maori Party.

    Rawiri Waititi is Labour family anyway and could take something like Corrections or Maori Affairs (or whatever they call it now). There are also a bunch of Maori-specific quangoes in Wellington to keep Ministerial watch over, especially FOMA.

    Debbie Ngarewa-Packer should be given an Associate Economic Development with a specific brief on a greater return for Maori-owned assets. Already has experience there.

    Both of them could be given Associate roles for Treaty negotiations, if they wanted it.

    The current Labour caucus is packed with Maori who aren't going any further up the tree, so may as well make way for a coalition option.

    • Dennis Frank 5.1

      Wouldn't surprise me if Willie has been talking to them on the quiet for a while now. If not, he ought to! This co-governance agenda that seems gradually to be falling into place in legislation is an ideal basis for pan-Maori collaboration. Expect Winston to be contrarian about that – as if the nationalism in the heartland that he used to create NZF is still a force to be reckoned with…

    • millsy 5.2

      Yes, next time that Labour lose the Maori seats, they will not get them back.

    • swordfish 5.3

      .

      That might just generate a Kiwi-MMP equivalent of Britain's crumbling Red Wall.

  5. swordfish 6

    .

    Key vs Ardern Preferred PM TV1 Poll:

    From Initial Election to 4 Year 4 Month mark:

    ……………. Key …… Oppo Ldr … Gap …. Ardern Oppo Ldr Gap

    ……………… 51% ………… 6% …. +45 …………. … 37% ……….. 28% …… +9

    ……………… 51% ………… 6% …. +45 ……………… 41% ……….. 20% …… +21

    ……………… 51% ………… 7% …. +44 ……………… 37% ……….. 10% …… +27

    …………………………………………………………………… 41% ………… 12% …… +29

    ………………. 50% ……….. 9% …. +41 ……………… 40% ………… 10% …… +30

    [1 Year ] .. 54% ………. 5% ….. +49 .……………… 42% ………… 7% …….. +35

    ……………… 49% ………. 8% …… +41 ……………… 39% ………… 7% ……… +32

    ……………… 48% ……… 8% ……. +40 ………………. 44% ………… 6% ……… +38

    …………….. 46% ………. 6% …… +40 ……………….. 51% ……….. 5% ………. +46

    ……………… 45% ………. 9% ….. +36 ………………. 45% ………… 5% ………. +40

    ……………… 52% ………. 8% ….. +44 ………………. 41% ………… 6% ………. +35

    [2 Years] .56% …….. 7% ……. +49 ………………. 38% ………… 9% ………. +29

    ……………… 48% ……… 7% …… +41 ………………. 36% ………… 10% …….. +26

    ……………… 55% ………. 11% +44 ……………….. 42% ……….. 11% ……… +31

    ……………… 53% ……….. 8% …. +45 ……………….. 63% ……….. 5% ………. +58

    …………….. 54% ……….. 9% …. +45

    ……………. 57% …………. 8% …. +49 ……………….. 54% ……….. 13% …….. +41

    ……………. 59% …………. 8% …. +51

    …………… 56% …………. 12%+44 ……………….. 54% ………… 20% …….. +34

    ………….. 55% ………….. 14% +41 ……………….. 54% …………. 18% ……. +36%

    ………….. 53% …………… 13% +40

    [3 Years] 52% ………. 15% ….. +37 ………………. 54% …………. 23% ……… +31

    ……………… 48% ………. 11% …. +37 ………………. 50% …………. 23% ….. … +27

    ……………… 48% ………. 14% …. +34 ………………. 55% …………. 20% …….. +35

    …………….. 45% ………. 13% ….. +32 ……………….. 58% ………… 12% …….. +46

    …………….. 44% ………. 12% …. +32 ………………… 43% ………….. 8% ……… +35

    ……………. 42% ………… 11% …. +31 ………………… 48% …………. 9% ………. +39

    [4 Years] 39% ……….. 15% ….. +24 ……………….. 44% ………… 5% ………. +39

    …………….. 44% ………. 15% …… +29 ……………….. 39% …………. 5% ……… +34

    …………….. 39% ………. 15% …… +24 ……………….. 35% ………… 17% ……… +18

    Similar slump / margins at the 4 Year + 4 Month mark … though Ardern's fall is a little more dramatic.

  6. swordfish 7

    v

    Key vs Ardern Preferred PM TV1 Poll:

    From Initial Election … to … 4 Year 4 Month mark:

    ……………. Key .Oppo Ldr. . .Gap. ….. .Ardern. .. .Oppo Ldr .Gap

    ……………… 51% ………… 6% …. +45 …………. … 37% ……….. 28% …… +9

    ……………… 51% ………… 6% …. +45 ……………… 41% ……….. 20% …… +21

    ……………… 51% ………… 7% …. +44 ……………… 37% ……….. 10% …… +27

    …………………………………………………………………… 41% ………… 12% …… +29

    ………………. 50% ……….. 9% …. +41 ……………… 40% ………… 10% …… +30

    [1 Year ] .. 54% ………. 5% ….. +49 .……………… 42% ………… 7% …….. +35

    ……………… 49% ………. 8% …… +41 ……………… 39% ………… 7% ……… +32

    ……………… 48% ……… 8% ……. +40 ………………. 44% ………… 6% ……… +38

    …………….. 46% ………. 6% …… +40 ……………….. 51% ……….. 5% ………. +46

    ……………… 45% ………. 9% ….. +36 ………………. 45% ………… 5% ………. +40

    ……………… 52% ………. 8% ….. +44 ………………. 41% ………… 6% ………. +35

    [2 Years] .56% …….. 7% ……. +49 ………………. 38% ………… 9% ………. +29

    ……………… 48% ……… 7% …… +41 ………………. 36% ………… 10% …….. +26

    ……………… 55% ………. 11% … +44 ……………….. 42% ……….. 11% ……… +31

    ……………… 53% ……….. 8% …. +45 ……………….. 63% ……….. 5% ………. +58

    …………….. 54% ……….. 9% …. +45

    ……………. 57% …………. 8% …. +49 ……………….. 54% ……….. 13% …….. +41

    ……………. 59% …………. 8% …. +51

    …………… 56% …………. 12% … +44 ……………….. 54% ………… 20% …….. +34

    ………….. 55% ………….. 14% … +41 ……………….. 54% …………. 18% ……. +36%

    ………….. 53% …………… 13% … +40

    [3 Years] 52% ………. 15% ….. +37 ………………. 54% …………. 23% ……… +31

    ……………… 48% ………. 11% …. +37 ………………. 50% …………. 23% ….. … +27

    ……………… 48% ………. 14% …. +34 ………………. 55% …………. 20% …….. +35

    …………….. 45% ………. 13% ….. +32 ……………….. 58% ………… 12% …….. +46

    …………….. 44% ………. 12% …. +32 ………………… 43% ………….. 8% ……… +35

    ……………. 42% ………… 11% …. +31 ………………… 48% …………. 9% ………. +39

    [4 Years] 39% ……….. 15% ….. +24 ……………….. 44% ………… 5% ………. +39

    …………….. 44% ………. 15% …… +29 ……………….. 39% …………. 5% ……… +34

    …………….. 39% ………. 15% …… +24 ……………….. 35% ………… 17% ……… +18

    Similar slump / margins at the 4 Year + 4 Month mark … though Ardern's fall is a little more dramatic.

  7. mosa 8

    This left / right block description is totally misleading. The last time I looked there was very little difference apart from some social positions as not one of the parties in parliament offers an alternative to the current neo liberal stranglehold.

    Its not what they promise or lie about it is their actions and what they do that counts.

  8. observer 9

    Nobody can be surprised that the PM has 37% disapproving (as reported tonight). That is actually a low figure compared with leaders in democracies around the world. Boris Johnson's is 70%. Many others (Biden, Morrison) are in net negative territory.

    But the comparison with Luxon is silly. What are voters supposed to be disapproving of? His taste in music?

    As said before, the problem is not the polls, it's the reporting of the polls.

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