web analytics

July 2020 Roy Morgan Poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:11 pm, August 8th, 2020 - 45 comments
Categories: act, class war, Dirty Politics, greens, Judith Collins, labour, MMP, nz first, political parties, Politics, same old national, vote smart - Tags: , ,

The latest Roy Morgan poll is yet another rogue result, claiming that new National Party leader Judith Collins has actually cost the Tories votes. That can’t be true, surely?

On the day that National have released their party list, this will be a reminder to Tory MP’s ranked in the mid 30’s that they shouldn’t get their hopes up.

Labour? Well, they just keep rollin’ on.

 

New Zealand Party Vote

ACT continue to be the gutter into which blue votes drain, lifting to a remarkable 6.5%. That would give them at least 8 MPs by my calculation.

The Greens are comfortably safe, so clearly there’s no need to campaign hard in the Auckland Central electorate. The energy really should be focussed on lifting the party vote and bringing in MP’s ranked in the teens on the list, not subsidising what is essentially now a Queen Street vanity project.

Anybody remember NZ First? Me neither.

My quick shufti at potential seat outcomes suggests Labour will have 68 seats and the Greens 10, versus ACT 8 and National 34.

That’s a dead set shellacking.

Perhaps National should change leader?

 

 

45 comments on “July 2020 Roy Morgan Poll ”

  1. Robert Guyton 1

    "Perhaps National should change leader?"

    John Key's slinking around in the Natty shadows; perhaps he smells an opportunity?

  2. anker 2

    yah

    Glad to see an opinion piece in the Herald, I think saying that Key’s comments about opening the boarder are dangerously reckless.

  3. anker 3

    Just seen Roberts comment. Imagine the knifing of Judith after the election. If she fails to get a poll bump for National she will be gone by lunchtime. Wonder if Bridges is waiting in the wings??? Or maybe Maureen Pugh who has risen on the list??? Gerry for PM anyone?

  4. newsense 4

    NZ First who chose to change the government and support Jacinda for PM? Yes, I remember them. Who in parliament is a politician of the stature of Winston Peters? If half of them last half as long as him they'll be happy.

  5. solkta 5

    so clearly there’s no need to campaign hard in the Auckland Central electorate

    Ummm, no.

    • Devo 5.1

      Yes, TRP seems to have a bit of an issue with Chloe running a campaign for the Auckland Central seat.

      It is only upsides for the greens if they can establish an electorate seat, so let it play out and the best candidate will win

      • lprent 5.1.1

        I suspect that he is looking at the electorate results from the last 4 elections. There is a very consistent level of support for Green party candidates in Auckland Central – it is extremely low and getting lower.

        No amount of numerically illiterate fools trying to talk it up will help it that much. Door knocking and phoning may help win it in a few election cycles of very hard work. But years are what are going to be needed to take the electorate.

        Personally I don’t think that Chloe Swarbick has any significiant chance of winning the election there (and I live just a block from the electorate). The electorate boundaries haven’t changed since 2011. There haven’t been a significiant demographic shift in the last two elections. Denise Roche was a well respected local councillor and Green MP and had more name recognition in the electorate than Swarbick has outside of the university circles.

        Just look at the real numbers…

        LEADING CANDIDATE: KAYE, Nikki 13,198
        2nd CANDIDATE: WHITE, Helen Ione 11,617
        and
        3rd party candidate
        ROCHE, Denise 2838

        The 2014 election
        ARDERN, Jacinda LAB 11,894
        KAYE, Nikki NAT 12,494
        ROCHE, Denise GP 2,080

        The 2011 election
        ARDERN, Jacinda LAB 14,321
        KAYE, Nikki NAT 15,038
        ROCHE, Denise GP 2,903

        The 2008 election
        KAYE, Nikki NAT 14,677
        ROCHE, Denise GP 4,592
        TIZARD, Judith LAB 13,180

        What has been consistent is that National has been winning the electorate seat because of few thousand votes going to the Green candidate and a few thousand extra votes going to a popular local National candidate.

        I suspect that the latter won’t happen this time because Nikki Kaye had managed to build up a personal vote that was about 1500 more than the National party vote (in 2008 her vote was almost exactly the same as National party vote). That probably won’t transfer to a new National Candidate. And bearing in mind that a new candidate shoved in at the last minute probably won’t have local support, I think that the National electorate vote is going to drop a lot.

        But there simply aren’t enough Green votes in Auckland Central to win for a Green candidate. The Green party vote of 4170 was close to 1500 more than the Green electorate vote. That party vote was well less than the 7737 peak in 2008, and the 6242 in the 2014 election after the boundary changes.

        What Chloe Swarbick would have to do to win it as an electorate seat is to convince large numbers of Labour electorate voters to vote for her. I can’t see that happening when Helen White has been working her way in that electorate for two terms – even and obviously collecting Green votes.

        At best Chloe might persuade the Green party voters to vote for her at an electorate level.

        But frankly I have to consider anyone saying that Chloe can actually win the electorate seat is just being a blithering idiot.

        • Devo 5.1.1.1

          To be fair I never mentioned that Chloe could win, although there are a few out there that seem to think that is possible. But it seems unlikely given overall green support in that seat

          I just noticed a pattern of this author being almost resentful that Chloe is running a campaign proper in that seat, and a similar vibe coming from the Helen White campaign.

          I'd like to think most people realise that it doesn't matter if Helen ot Chloe win the seat as they'll both be in on their parties’ lists, barring disaster for the Greens. It might even be beneficial if the (likely) liberal Nat candidate for Auckland Central wins and takes a place off one of their more conservative list MPs

          • lprent 5.1.1.1.1

            I just noticed a pattern of this author being almost resentful that Chloe is running a campaign proper in that seat, and a similar vibe coming from the Helen White campaign.

            Sure, I've noticed it as well. That is his opinion and expressing it is what happens here.

            I trust that I've explained why he is likely to feel that way. Those three way electorate splits in 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017 with a minor party result in the electorate vote that resulted in a National candidate winning the electorate tend to sour many Labour activists views on the role of the Greens in that electorate.

            I'd like to think most people realise that it doesn't matter if Helen ot Chloe win the seat as they'll both be in on their parties’ lists…

            Unless you happen to have been a on the ground supporter / activist in that electorate to have spent 4 elections working your arse off to elect candidates each election in the seat and fallen just short each time because of the efforts of another parties candidate to drum up party vote support.

            I suspect you have a rather naive view about how this affects the viewpoints of hard working volunteers who see their efforts fall short of the goal because of the efforts of another party to achieve a separate and different target.

            Personally if I was operating the electorate campaign for Labour in that electorate, I'd have switched long ago to targeting resources into getting out party vote for Labour in that electorate targeting the easiest votes to gain. That would have a triple effect.

            It'd be easier to target minor party votes and consolidating them into a bloc than targeting the harder National party voters. Over time it'd undermine both the National party and Green party efforts away from electorate vote campaigning – which means that it'd take less work to push through a electorate vote campaign.

            But generally most political activists aren't quite as focused or strategic as I am. The Labour party campaigns in Auckland Central have deliberately persisted in targeting the electorate vote and not targeting the Green party votes. This is exactly the same political logic (but inverted) that I followed when targeting get out and vote for identified Green supporters who had a history of not getting to the polls in Mt Albert in the 00s.

            It might even be beneficial if the (likely) liberal Nat candidate for Auckland Central wins and takes a place off one of their more conservative list MPs

            Why? In a lot of ways politically over time it'd be better to differentiate national by letting National fall to its social conservatives.

            What you have to remember is that political parties at best are wary semi-allies – frenemies. They are organisations that focus on promoting their own interests. Like all organisms in biological systems they usually try to not directly compete with other similar organisms because it wastes effort for little return. Instead they pick strategies that complement each other. Effectively that is what Labour has been doing in Auckland Central. The Greens have been acting more like competitors.

            • Sacha 5.1.1.1.1.1

              The Labour party campaigns in Auckland Central have deliberately persisted in targeting the electorate vote

              And why should that failure to move on from FPP be somehow the fault of any other party?

        • solkta 5.1.1.2

          Chloe makes the point in this interview that this will be the first time the Greens have run a two tick campaign in this electorate. They have never before asked people there for the electorate vote. She also points out that Auckland Central is one of the youngest electorates in the country:

          https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018758720

          In 2014 the Greens got more party votes than Labour (6,242/6,101) in this seat. And in the 2011 nearly as many party votes as Labour (7,797/8,590):

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auckland_Central_(New_Zealand_electorate)

          • lprent 5.1.1.2.1

            In 2017 there was a shift in results that you left out. I hadn't looked at it before. But I guess someone decided to shift focus along the lines I was suggesting in a comment further up.

            Labour got 11340 party votes and the Greens got 4,170 votes. Ouch that is a clearly a result of a targeted campaign to get soft party votes

            • solkta 5.1.1.2.1.1

              Yes, last election the Greens slipped back. They could also slip forward again, especially with a candidate as dynamic as Chloe. My point was that you were talking nonsense by just looking at the candidate vote. The Greens have always done really well in this seat relative to their average, to suggest that they should not try for an electorate win in this seat is to say that they shouldn't try for an electoral seat at all ever. That is a silly ask.

            • Warren Doney 5.1.1.2.1.2

              2017 party votes for Labour were mostly for Jacinda I think, but I doubt Helen White thought she would win the electorate, so yes, likely the ground team would be aiming for party too.

              As the Greens will probably be closer to 5% than 8% in other polls, and Labour will have very little advantage from winning, there could be some rescue voting.

              Chloe has a way higher profile. People unhappy about Labour's progress. Actually asking for the electorate vote.

              There could be a surprise, but, as Labour will probably pick up most of National's lost votes, I'm picking they have the best chance of winning.

  6. Paddington 6

    Interesting to compare the RM polling to the nearest dates for 2011 and 2002.

    The RM poll taken 25th July – 7th August had National on 51%, Labour on 32%, Greens on 7%, NZF 4%, Act 2%.

    I can't find RM polling for 2002 (before their time??), but at the same time prior to that election, the TV3 poll had Labour on 56%, National on 24%, Alliance 1.2%, Act 3.9%, Greens 9%, NZF 3.1%.

    Are we really that 'patterned"?

  7. observer 7

    I'm not one of those predicting a National meltdown, they won't be sub-30 in the end. But even a mid-30 vote share causes a lot of problems in their caucus.

    They've chucked a bunch of MPs under the bus to save Maureen Pugh, and at around 35% they would only bring in one or two new MPs on the list (depending on electorate results). And Ms Samarakone has been told that it's Auckland Central or nothing, she's ranked in the impossible 50s.

    I suppose ambitious candidates will have to wait for the 2021 by-elections (starting in Papakura).

    • Anne 7.1

      Not long ago Judith Collins mentioned during the course of an interview that Maureen Pugh was a personal friend of many years standing. Judith would want to make sure as many of her supporters as possible were sufficiently high on the list to make it back to parliament. You know, just in case there was a leadership challenge.

    • Incognito 7.2

      #55 Nuwi Samarakone – Manurewa
      #66 TBC – Auckland Central

  8. Chris T 9

    Quite funny watching Winston being turfed.

  9. Do not get to cocky. Still need to get the public to actually vote and crush the crusher.

  10. georgecom 11

    So based on this, the TV1 and TV3 polls Nationals support sits around 28%. Looks like their internal polling was the rogue poll. Goldsmith must be in real danger of going out based on this. Guess he will have to campaign to win Epsom. Good.

    These levels of support are knife in the back figures. Bridges got it. Wonder if a number in National are ruing that decision now.

  11. Not made the papers yet. Wonder why?

    • Good question, Al1en. The poll was released on a Saturday morning, which is weird in terms of news cycles. Not sure why RM would choose that time when waiting till Monday (or even Sunday arvo) would have guaranteed more media coverage.

      • Pete George 12.1.1

        It came out on Friday:

        What is weird is that the polling was done through July (so partially pre-dates Reid research poll and more so the Colmar Brunton poll which was done late July) but took a week to be promoted by RM.

        It suggests that the RR poll may not have been a 'rogue', and that all three polls may have been somewhere close to the mark at the time they were taken.

        Regardless, all of them are great news for Labour and ACT, and bad news for National and NZ First.

        • te reo putake 12.1.1.1

          Cheers, Pete. Mind you, 9.30 on a Friday night isn't that far off Saturday morning and effectively it meant it wouldn't be picked up by the media till the next day. Or not picked up at all, as seems to be the case.

  12. swordfish 13

    .
    This year, Roy Morgan have been polling over a uniquely extended period of about 4 weeks. Fieldwork for this one began while Muller was still leader (before the latest Newshub was conducted) & probably ended not too long after the Falloon & ILG stories broke (possibly around the time the latest Colmar Brunton fieldwork started). So the last to be released but not quite the latest sampling (although it does have the advantage of smoothing out any short-term fluctuations).

    Wouldn't take too much notice of the Greens' 8% … Roy Morgan tend to overrate our Organic Friends.

    • Ad 13.1

      Do you see any data-driven reason that this poll tends to over-project for the Greens?

      • lprent 13.1.1

        I did look at this a while ago. My best guess was that it was probably because it used cellphone numbers more extensively.

        But swordfish is correct. It always seems to have high Green party numbers across a decade of elections.

  13. mikesh 14

    ACT (at 6.5%) and the Others (at 4%) seem to be the only ones trending upwards at the moment.

  14. Brian Tregaskin 15

    NZ Herald Kantar poll —–why did the Herald not publish the full poll this week?

  15. MartinC 16

    Campaign like there's no tomorrow!!

  16. Jackel 17

    Jacinda and Labour have got a lot of media coverage from this virus crisis. These latest polls just go to show where the National Party's true support level would usually be, if they didn't have all this mainstream tory media constantly banging on on their behalf and brainwashing the public.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Celebrating the Entry Into Force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
    [Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Supporting disabled people to stay connected
    The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Voluntary saliva testing offered to quarantine workers from Monday
    Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Next steps in firearms buy-back
    The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today.  “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison over
    The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Pre-departure COVID-19 test for travellers from the UK and the US from 15 January
    Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago