Labour closes gap to 3%

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments
Categories: election 2017, jacinda ardern, labour, polls - Tags: , , , ,

Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll:

Labour’s polling closes gap on National

The Labour Party will hold its campaign launch today with its own poll putting it just three points adrift of National – and bringing heartening news for Labour’s potential support partner the Greens.

The Herald has seen the latest UMR poll results – Labour’s polling company – for a poll which ended on August 17.

That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

Labour was up one point since the week before to 37 per cent – the same level of support it had in the One News Colmar Brunton poll released this week.

In National’s favour, the majority of people were still optimistic about the country’s direction – 56 per cent to 35 per cent negative.

However, Ardern’s first two weeks in the job had impressed voters – her favourability rating was 70 per cent to Prime Minister Bill English’s 57 per cent. And only 10 per cent viewed her unfavourably compared to 37 per cent for English.

The momentum is all one way. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?

Update: Greens steady at 8% in this poll, see Vernon Small: More good news for Labour as Jacinda Ardern prepares for campaign launch

Update: Official launch video

(If it doesn’t embed use link)

https://twitter.com/barrysoper/status/899077571282747392

58 comments on “Labour closes gap to 3% ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Ed 1
    20 August 2017 at 8:37 am

    40% – Stephen Joyce will be panicking.
    And Peter Dunne looks gone too.

    • Bearded Git 1.1
      20 August 2017 at 10:31 am

      It would be nice to see the Curia poll that Farrar and Joyce are refusing to release…..Nats 39% anybody?

      Trevett should also have mentioned the Roy Morgan and the fact that the Greens have now polled 9 and 8 since the CB 4.3, but the Right are desperate to get rid of the Greens.

    • tracey 1.2
      20 August 2017 at 2:32 pm

      Can we assume nats internal.polling is reason for story about artists and auctions today?

  2. Carolyn_nth 2
    20 August 2017 at 8:39 am

    Trevett:

    That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

    Of course, the fault could be with most public polls that over-represent National voters.

  3. lurgee 3
    20 August 2017 at 9:07 am

    If you dig back 3 or 4 years in this forum, you’ll find me rubbishing the idea of a Labour led government being successful with Labour stuck in the mid 20s. While technically possible, I opined that to be credible, the major partner had to have a substantial vote – I think I suggested mid to high 30s. Otherwise it would look like a stolen election and the parties in coalition would rapidly lose favour, and the opposition thrive.

    Well, now it looks like Labour are moving into the zone where they can form that credible government. I think they will struggle to get across the line, because I think WInston will ultimately go with National, rather than Labour-Greens. But good show, far better than I was expecting, carry on.

    (And since I’ve been so colossally wrong about the impact of changing leader you are free to ignore my pessimistic instincts.)

    Though I suspect the media are just waiting for the first blip, the first 1% fall in Labour’s ratings, to proclaim “JACINDERMANIA IS OVER” and “REALITY SETS IN AS VOTERS FACE CHOICE” and “LABOUR PLUMMET AS GLOSS WEARS OFF ARDERN.”

  4. Stephen Doyle 4
    20 August 2017 at 9:38 am

    My dream of Labour in the high 30s low 40s and the Greens 10-12 ish, is looking likely. No need for Winston.

    • Wayne 4.1
      20 August 2017 at 10:46 am

      Stephen
      That is a highly unlikely result. When the major party (Labour or National) poll well, the small parties who are naturally aligned to them poll low. So if Labour is in the high 30’s or low 40’s then the Greens will poll low. Not necessarily below 5, but likely 6 or 7.
      Same with National polling well driveing Act down. Because National has got as high as 47 (2014) Act gets 1 or 2.

      • Bearded Git 4.1.1
        20 August 2017 at 10:56 am

        You are ignoring the Trudeau-Macron-Corbyn effect Wayne. These are strange times.

        (Trump not included because he lost the popular vote by 3 million on a turn out of 58%)

      • lprent 4.1.2
        20 August 2017 at 11:49 am

        From what I am hearing, the manner in which the Greens were targeted is likely to be counterproductive.

        Sure a lot of their soft support has gone to Labour. But it doesn’t appear to have touched their core support which is well above 5% of the voters. To date I haven’t found someone who I know has been a long term Green supporter shifting. In fact it mostly just seems to be a topic for those who’d never vote Green.

        Moreover a lot of the greener / left activists and supporters from Labour are now far more likely to vote Green this election now that they look like they have something worth supporting in the social justice sphere. I know that I am likely to do so.

        Most of us who directly or indirectly have had to deal with the National version of a torture chamber called WINZ have some fairly strong opinions on them and the government that drives them. Shining a light on the employment of petty sadists or rules to make people into that in the pursuit of ridiculous punitive and vindictive pandering to gain support amongst National’s conservative constituency is a damn good idea.

        Personally I don’t pay my large taxes for frigging National to waste half of what goes to those in need to employ people and tactics that wouldn’t go amiss in Dante’s Inferno.

        Virtually none of us use landlines any more we won’t show up in the surveys by the more conservative pollsters like Farrar or Colmar Brunton. So the polling is getting ever more inaccurate.

        But anyway, who cares. There is a real poll on September 23rd. I suggest that you wait for that to reveal the difference between fantasy polls and electoral reality. These polls coming out now are more indicative propaganda than reflecting reality.

        • Bearded Git 4.1.2.1
          20 August 2017 at 1:01 pm

          Nicely put lprent-couldn’t agree more.

          As a Green voter with strong Labour sympathies I am more likely than ever (given the current polling) to stick with the Greens to make sure they have a strong representation in parliament and to be sure they get over 5%…not that this is really in doubt at all.

          • greg 4.1.2.1.1
            21 August 2017 at 5:20 am

            if the green vote is stable that is a good thing ,Jacinda only has to sunk in another 2 percent and its game over for Winnie and national its very possible after yesterday,

        • tracey 4.1.2.2
          20 August 2017 at 2:34 pm

          Well said.

      • Ad 4.1.3
        20 August 2017 at 12:08 pm

        In 2 weeks Labour will overtake National.

        Poll news reinforce trends through media.

        It’s like a 2008 re-run, reversed.

      • Stephen Doyle 4.1.4
        20 August 2017 at 8:54 pm

        The Greens natural level is 8-10. With the momentum Labour have currently they only have to pick up a few % of light blues, and bingo.

    • Stuart Munro 4.2
      20 August 2017 at 6:11 pm

      Winston will probably pick up a lot of votes as National crumbles – their bedrock support used to be 23% but that was getting on for twenty years ago – a lot of them will have died since then.

  5. Zeroque 5
    20 August 2017 at 9:41 am

    I can’t see any reason currently that Labour should slide in the polls. There is a mood for change and a realisation amongst many that the current government don’t want to do anything tangible to sort the issues that people really care about. So far Labour look like a viable alternative. Should Ardern not have a good showing in the debates or something comes from left field that’s negative for Labour then this of course could change Labours fortunes. And as for NZ First, I too once thought that it couldn’t or wouldn’t go with Labour but I’m not as certain as I once was about this. It’s still a rather unusual prospect though because NZ1 is innately conservative whereas Labour is far less so.

    • red-blooded 5.1
      20 August 2017 at 9:52 am

      Let’s remember that the one time they went with National the alliance didn’t go the distance. (Of course, government by alliance was new to NZ at the time.) They’ve governed with Labour before, and while the NZF party funding scandal caused problems towards the end, the relationship with the Clark team seemed a lot more amicable than the Bolger lot. And note, Clark didn’t kowtow to him with Deputy PM status.

      • mikesh 5.1.1
        20 August 2017 at 11:13 am

        Winston, I think, got on OK with Bolger. It was only after Shipley´s coup that problems arose. I think he would go OK with English also, but I still he will go with Labour because of policies they have in common.

        • snik 5.1.1.1
          22 August 2017 at 4:17 pm

          I hope your right, in a Winston controlled result that’s the preferable option. people will argue that he’ll never team up with the Greens, however some of us recall in the lead-up to his last king-making stint in 1996 that he was adamant there was no way he could ever enter into a coalition with National… til he did.

    • lurgee 5.2
      20 August 2017 at 9:52 am

      Polls vary, because they don’t ask exactly the same people every time.

      If the next poll is a couple of points down, it is probably just that natural variation. Quite probably, the current poll is a bit ‘up’ on the true level of support. But journalists are so intent on creating drama and excitement that any slight shift is presented as a momentous change in public opinion, not just, you know, sampling variation.

      I get contacted quite frequently by pollsters and that has probably lead to Mana being over-represented in the polls.

      • garibaldi 5.2.1
        20 August 2017 at 10:13 am

        Good one lurgee! Do you know how Hone is getting on in TTT?

        • lurgee 5.2.1.1
          20 August 2017 at 2:56 pm

          No idea, as I’m in Palmerston North, which must confuse the pollsters even more. And given I’m a picture boy for the Aryan Nation, if they even did a face-to-face they’d go home completely baffled …

  6. red-blooded 6
    20 August 2017 at 9:46 am

    We have to keep from feeling or appearing complacent – this is too important to sit back and watch from the sidelines and it’s also crucial that we don’t self-implode. It was heartening to see Ardern reaffirming Labour’s commitment to the MOU, her belief that the Greens will be in the next parliament and that they are Labour’s first choice for a partner in government. She hasn’t wavered from this and I think it’s helped to settle down some of the wilder speculation that came out of that CB poll. Hopefully that line of attack has been overtaken by the more recent polls. Does anyone know the timeline of this one?

  7. lurgee 7
    20 August 2017 at 9:49 am

    Wonder who selectively leaked the poll? “Favourability” is not quite the same as “Preferred PM” and I’d rather see the full results before I break open the (organic, co-operative, zero-carbon) Champagne.

    I don’t like being feed propaganda by either side.

    • In Vino 7.1
      20 August 2017 at 6:41 pm

      You realise that you have to drink that Champagne very quickly so that the bubbles leach as little as possible CO2 into the atmosphere? And no burping!

  8. swordfish 8
    20 August 2017 at 10:28 am

    Comparisons (2011-17) (Updated)

    UMR (One Month out)

    UMR Aug 2017 ………. Aug 2014 ……….. Oct 2011
    Nat 40 …………………………. 45 ……………………. 50
    Lab 37 …………………………. 27 ……………………. 28
    NZF 9 …………………………… 6 ………………………. 3
    Green 8 ………………………. 15 ……………………. 13

    Leader Favourability

    UMR Aug 2017
    Net Rating
    English + 20
    Aug 2014
    Key + 24
    Oct 2011
    Key + 46

    UMR Aug 2017
    Net Rating
    Ardern + 60
    Aug 2014
    Cunliffe (No Data but almost Certainly in Negative territory)
    Oct 2011
    Goff = (Fav & UnFav Equal 46-46)

    Little + 21 (debut December 2014)

    • swordfish 8.1
      20 August 2017 at 10:52 am

      + 60 !!! = That is an absolutely fucking extraordinary debut by Ardern

      Helen Clark’s highest ever Net Favourability rating = + 58 (March 2000)
      She averaged + 31 over her 3 terms (vs Key averaged + 32)

      Hence Trevett’s:

      However, Ardern’s first two weeks in the job had impressed voters

      is a bit of an understatement !

    • swordfish 8.2
      20 August 2017 at 11:48 am

      Country’s Direction

      UMR Aug 2017 ……….…. Aug 2014 ……….. Oct 2011

      Right 56 …………………………. 59 ……………………. 59
      Wrong 35 ………………………. 31 ……………………. 28
      Net + 21 ……………………… + 28 …………………… + 31

      (Note – Aug 2014 = something of an outlier – 3 immediately previous & 2 immediately following 2014 UMRs all had Right Direction 63-66% & Wrong 23-29% = so …… + 34 to + 43 range)

      • Ad 8.2.1
        20 August 2017 at 12:10 pm

        That’s held up remarkably.

        Little wonder it’s been a slow slippage for National, and shows Jacindas power against it.

  9. Draco T Bastard 9
    20 August 2017 at 10:43 am

    That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

    Perhaps that’s because most public polls over-state National’s support.

  10. Greg 10
    20 August 2017 at 11:27 am

    Bye bill and the gang

  11. TheBlackKitten 11
    20 August 2017 at 12:35 pm

    The real sad thing is that this National government is campaigning this election for a fourth term. labour should be a country mile ahead of them in the polls. Yet here you are celebrating that they are within a 3percent grasp. Shouldn’t you be wondering why they are not romping ahead in the polls with a party that is campaigning for a 4th term in government?

    • Ad 11.1
      20 August 2017 at 12:56 pm

      You’ve been asleep for 9 years?

    • Draco T Bastard 11.2
      20 August 2017 at 6:10 pm

      The real sad thing is that this National government is campaigning this election for a fourth term. labour should be a country mile ahead of them in the polls.

      You’re not holding to the delusional idea that it’s Labour’s turn are you?

  12. bwaghorn 12
    20 August 2017 at 12:47 pm

    starting to think labour at 43+ and greens at 9 come election day. bye bye nats bye bye act and dunne and see you later winny

    • Carolyn_nth 12.1
      20 August 2017 at 5:20 pm

      I think Labour post election, will still look to include NZ First as their idea of a balance to the more left wing Greens. Basically, for the left, this means it’s important to raise the GP vote as much as possible.

      • Muttonbird 12.1.1
        20 August 2017 at 5:51 pm

        I’m not sure it’s about balance, more about what can be done to gauge the government.

        I’m interested in what would happen if Labour and the Nats are pretty much even. Labour would first consider a government with the Greens but not if it is going to be trumped by a Nats/NZF counter government (NZF could go with either which makes them no better than the Maori Party and UF, imo).

        We know the Greens won’t form a government with the Nats so it makes sense for Labour to consider NZF first and then getting the Greens on board.

        Don’t forget that Peters’ opposition to working with the Greens is based on their social justice policy, which has unfortunately been silenced. RWNJs believe that the resignation of Key paved the way for a NZF/Nat coalition but equally Turei’s resignation has allowed for the possibility of NZF and the Greens being in the same government.

        • Carolyn_nth 12.1.1.1
          20 August 2017 at 5:58 pm

          Even if Labour can form a government with just the GP, they won’t if they can also pull NZ First onboard.

          This is what John key did in his first term. People were at first surprised, then saw it as smart that he formed alliances with ACT, Dunne and the Mp, even though he didn’t need the Māori Party to govern. It enabled him to maintain control, and not be beholden to any one party.

          I think Ardern’s LP, which is pretty centrist, will also look to do the same. Many on the right of the LP have no liking for the GP.

        • Incognito 12.1.1.2
          20 August 2017 at 7:07 pm

          … their social justice policy, which has unfortunately been silenced.

          Surely, you don’t mean or believe this!?

          This kind of ‘meme’ needs to be neutralised immediately with a countervailing message that the Green party has not given up the fight that Metiria Turei took to a new level and they will not forsake the people for whom she took the fall. Otherwise they’d been playing right into the hands of political opponents (…).

          James Shaw said as much in a recent speech: https://www.greens.org.nz/news/speech/turning-tide-speech-auckland-13-august-2017

  13. millsy 13
    20 August 2017 at 12:54 pm

    Labour can probably do this. But as said before, they are going to have to work harder than they have ever worked before.

    A win is not impossible, In 1983, Bob Hawke became leader of the ALP 4 weeks out from an election.

  14. swordfish 14
    20 August 2017 at 1:09 pm

    Trevett

    The UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

    2014
    National Party %
    Poll Average ……. June …… July …. Aug ……. Sep

    UMR ………………… 49………. 48 …….… 45……… 47
    CB ……………………. 50 ……… 52 ….….…49….….. 47
    RR ……………………. 50 ……… 49 …………46 ……. 46
    RM …………………… 49 ……… 49 …………47………47
    HD …………………… 50 ….……55 ………… 50…….. 49
    FI ……………….………57….. .… 55 ………… 53 …..…52
    2014 Result = 47

    Well yeah kind of ….Trevs ……although UMR was little diff from RR & RM with the 2 defunct Polls – HD & FI – seemingly overstating Nat support significantly & CB mildly

    UMR looked most realistic of the Pollsters in 2014 given Nat’s 47% result

    (Bear in mind, too, that – according to both Farrar and Hooton – National Party strategists credit Kim Dotcom’s “Moment of Truth” with the relative ease of John Key’s third election victory. Apparently, Farrar’s last Curia Internals for National showed a 2 point swing to the Blue Team during the final 5 days of the 2014 Election Campaign (in the immediate wake of the “MoT”).

    Which suggests – all things being equal / in the normal course of events – that the Nats were heading for 45% in 2014.)

  15. Dspare 15
    20 August 2017 at 2:17 pm

    Thanks for the link to the livestream. Surprising amount of applause for Andrew Little (around 50 minute mark – though I’ve only been glancing at it until I saw it was Ardern talking). I thought it was classy of her to be so gracious to her predecessor’s efforts in consolidating Labour.

    • lprent 15.1
      20 August 2017 at 2:30 pm

      No problem.

      Nice of Labour to pop it up just as I was sitting down at work to test my last bit of code for this two year project. Watching it on my lower screen, while coding and testing on the upper two.

  16. Dspare 16
    20 August 2017 at 2:35 pm

    Huge applause for free education announcement (around 1 hour mark):

    “We will change our schools from a place of assessment to a place of of creativity [applause].
    We will open our night schools… [the rest lost to gigantic applause]”

    One glitch I’ve found is that the sound mutes when I make a comment, but it comes back if I click on the volume slider, so it is not that big a deal.

    • Dspare 16.1
      20 August 2017 at 2:49 pm

      The hugging and acknowledging each candidate during the song (“we had no idea” is hopefully not the title of it) after the climatic; Let’s do this, was a nice touch.

      [comment16 was supposed to be a reply to lprent at 15.1, but that was probably me being distracted and not using the right button]

      • mauī 16.1.1
        20 August 2017 at 3:05 pm

        Followed by the Naked and Famous’s Higher:

        Nothing but genuine
        Built on a skeleton
        Of fractured parts
        That only raise our voices…

        ….Better believe the sea of changes
        And put these battered bones to rest
        Nothing invisible or nameless

  17. mauī 17
    20 August 2017 at 2:40 pm

    This looks quite a leftist speech with plenty of Green parallels. Talking about kids in poverty a lot, tackling property speculators, overhauling education standards. I wonder when the push back from the media will come..

  18. CLEANGREEN 18
    20 August 2017 at 3:03 pm

    Goodbye National I saw Jacinda speaking to a very large crowd at the Auckland town hall today, in an inspiring uplifting speech that almost bought tears to my eyes.

    The words touched my heart, as finally we have a new leader for labour who is caring about “every person and every province of NZ,”.

    Jacinda said she and Labour will listen to every person who has something to say.

    It has been nine hard painful years since we used to talk by email to Helen Clark & Michael Cullen about our HB heavy truck gridlock problems as a community group.

    National have since 2008 have ignored our pleas for help, & they simply turned away from working with our community groups.

    Bill & Steven, now where is a new party about to take over the treasury benches and evict you Bill English and Steven Joyce, so farewell and go pack your bags.

    • Carolyn_nth 18.1
      20 August 2017 at 3:10 pm

      I saw David Cunliffe give an extremely uplifting speech in west Auckland a few years back.

      But he had the likes of Gower against him, and not cheer-leading for him.

    • Ed 18.2
      20 August 2017 at 5:34 pm

      Brilliant speech.

  19. mary_a 19
    20 August 2017 at 5:01 pm

    I’m beginning to think the swamp is about to be well and truly drained next month 🙂

  20. Thinkerr 20
    21 August 2017 at 6:14 am

    if Nat + NZF is greater than Labour + Green, there could still be problems.

    Labour might need to court Winston at a time when National are desperate enough to offer almost anything.

    Need to keep reminding Winston that National eats its coalition partners (or has done so far).

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    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
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