Labour closes gap to 3%

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments
Categories: election 2017, jacinda ardern, labour, polls - Tags: , , , ,

Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll:

Labour’s polling closes gap on National

The Labour Party will hold its campaign launch today with its own poll putting it just three points adrift of National – and bringing heartening news for Labour’s potential support partner the Greens.

The Herald has seen the latest UMR poll results – Labour’s polling company – for a poll which ended on August 17.

That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

Labour was up one point since the week before to 37 per cent – the same level of support it had in the One News Colmar Brunton poll released this week.

In National’s favour, the majority of people were still optimistic about the country’s direction – 56 per cent to 35 per cent negative.

However, Ardern’s first two weeks in the job had impressed voters – her favourability rating was 70 per cent to Prime Minister Bill English’s 57 per cent. And only 10 per cent viewed her unfavourably compared to 37 per cent for English.

The momentum is all one way. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?

Update: Greens steady at 8% in this poll, see Vernon Small: More good news for Labour as Jacinda Ardern prepares for campaign launch

Update: Official launch video

(If it doesn’t embed use link)


58 comments on “Labour closes gap to 3%”

  1. Ed 1

    40% – Stephen Joyce will be panicking.
    And Peter Dunne looks gone too.

    • Bearded Git 1.1

      It would be nice to see the Curia poll that Farrar and Joyce are refusing to release…..Nats 39% anybody?

      Trevett should also have mentioned the Roy Morgan and the fact that the Greens have now polled 9 and 8 since the CB 4.3, but the Right are desperate to get rid of the Greens.

    • tracey 1.2

      Can we assume nats internal.polling is reason for story about artists and auctions today?

  2. Carolyn_nth 2

    Trevett:

    That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

    Of course, the fault could be with most public polls that over-represent National voters.

  3. lurgee 3

    If you dig back 3 or 4 years in this forum, you’ll find me rubbishing the idea of a Labour led government being successful with Labour stuck in the mid 20s. While technically possible, I opined that to be credible, the major partner had to have a substantial vote – I think I suggested mid to high 30s. Otherwise it would look like a stolen election and the parties in coalition would rapidly lose favour, and the opposition thrive.

    Well, now it looks like Labour are moving into the zone where they can form that credible government. I think they will struggle to get across the line, because I think WInston will ultimately go with National, rather than Labour-Greens. But good show, far better than I was expecting, carry on.

    (And since I’ve been so colossally wrong about the impact of changing leader you are free to ignore my pessimistic instincts.)

    Though I suspect the media are just waiting for the first blip, the first 1% fall in Labour’s ratings, to proclaim “JACINDERMANIA IS OVER” and “REALITY SETS IN AS VOTERS FACE CHOICE” and “LABOUR PLUMMET AS GLOSS WEARS OFF ARDERN.”

  4. Stephen Doyle 4

    My dream of Labour in the high 30s low 40s and the Greens 10-12 ish, is looking likely. No need for Winston.

    • Wayne 4.1

      Stephen
      That is a highly unlikely result. When the major party (Labour or National) poll well, the small parties who are naturally aligned to them poll low. So if Labour is in the high 30’s or low 40’s then the Greens will poll low. Not necessarily below 5, but likely 6 or 7.
      Same with National polling well driveing Act down. Because National has got as high as 47 (2014) Act gets 1 or 2.

      • Bearded Git 4.1.1

        You are ignoring the Trudeau-Macron-Corbyn effect Wayne. These are strange times.

        (Trump not included because he lost the popular vote by 3 million on a turn out of 58%)

      • lprent 4.1.2

        From what I am hearing, the manner in which the Greens were targeted is likely to be counterproductive.

        Sure a lot of their soft support has gone to Labour. But it doesn’t appear to have touched their core support which is well above 5% of the voters. To date I haven’t found someone who I know has been a long term Green supporter shifting. In fact it mostly just seems to be a topic for those who’d never vote Green.

        Moreover a lot of the greener / left activists and supporters from Labour are now far more likely to vote Green this election now that they look like they have something worth supporting in the social justice sphere. I know that I am likely to do so.

        Most of us who directly or indirectly have had to deal with the National version of a torture chamber called WINZ have some fairly strong opinions on them and the government that drives them. Shining a light on the employment of petty sadists or rules to make people into that in the pursuit of ridiculous punitive and vindictive pandering to gain support amongst National’s conservative constituency is a damn good idea.

        Personally I don’t pay my large taxes for frigging National to waste half of what goes to those in need to employ people and tactics that wouldn’t go amiss in Dante’s Inferno.

        Virtually none of us use landlines any more we won’t show up in the surveys by the more conservative pollsters like Farrar or Colmar Brunton. So the polling is getting ever more inaccurate.

        But anyway, who cares. There is a real poll on September 23rd. I suggest that you wait for that to reveal the difference between fantasy polls and electoral reality. These polls coming out now are more indicative propaganda than reflecting reality.

        • Bearded Git 4.1.2.1

          Nicely put lprent-couldn’t agree more.

          As a Green voter with strong Labour sympathies I am more likely than ever (given the current polling) to stick with the Greens to make sure they have a strong representation in parliament and to be sure they get over 5%…not that this is really in doubt at all.

          • greg 4.1.2.1.1

            if the green vote is stable that is a good thing ,Jacinda only has to sunk in another 2 percent and its game over for Winnie and national its very possible after yesterday,

        • tracey 4.1.2.2

          Well said.

      • Ad 4.1.3

        In 2 weeks Labour will overtake National.

        Poll news reinforce trends through media.

        It’s like a 2008 re-run, reversed.

      • Stephen Doyle 4.1.4

        The Greens natural level is 8-10. With the momentum Labour have currently they only have to pick up a few % of light blues, and bingo.

    • Stuart Munro 4.2

      Winston will probably pick up a lot of votes as National crumbles – their bedrock support used to be 23% but that was getting on for twenty years ago – a lot of them will have died since then.

  5. Zeroque 5

    I can’t see any reason currently that Labour should slide in the polls. There is a mood for change and a realisation amongst many that the current government don’t want to do anything tangible to sort the issues that people really care about. So far Labour look like a viable alternative. Should Ardern not have a good showing in the debates or something comes from left field that’s negative for Labour then this of course could change Labours fortunes. And as for NZ First, I too once thought that it couldn’t or wouldn’t go with Labour but I’m not as certain as I once was about this. It’s still a rather unusual prospect though because NZ1 is innately conservative whereas Labour is far less so.

    • red-blooded 5.1

      Let’s remember that the one time they went with National the alliance didn’t go the distance. (Of course, government by alliance was new to NZ at the time.) They’ve governed with Labour before, and while the NZF party funding scandal caused problems towards the end, the relationship with the Clark team seemed a lot more amicable than the Bolger lot. And note, Clark didn’t kowtow to him with Deputy PM status.

      • mikesh 5.1.1

        Winston, I think, got on OK with Bolger. It was only after Shipley´s coup that problems arose. I think he would go OK with English also, but I still he will go with Labour because of policies they have in common.

        • snik 5.1.1.1

          I hope your right, in a Winston controlled result that’s the preferable option. people will argue that he’ll never team up with the Greens, however some of us recall in the lead-up to his last king-making stint in 1996 that he was adamant there was no way he could ever enter into a coalition with National… til he did.

    • lurgee 5.2

      Polls vary, because they don’t ask exactly the same people every time.

      If the next poll is a couple of points down, it is probably just that natural variation. Quite probably, the current poll is a bit ‘up’ on the true level of support. But journalists are so intent on creating drama and excitement that any slight shift is presented as a momentous change in public opinion, not just, you know, sampling variation.

      I get contacted quite frequently by pollsters and that has probably lead to Mana being over-represented in the polls.

      • garibaldi 5.2.1

        Good one lurgee! Do you know how Hone is getting on in TTT?

        • lurgee 5.2.1.1

          No idea, as I’m in Palmerston North, which must confuse the pollsters even more. And given I’m a picture boy for the Aryan Nation, if they even did a face-to-face they’d go home completely baffled …

  6. red-blooded 6

    We have to keep from feeling or appearing complacent – this is too important to sit back and watch from the sidelines and it’s also crucial that we don’t self-implode. It was heartening to see Ardern reaffirming Labour’s commitment to the MOU, her belief that the Greens will be in the next parliament and that they are Labour’s first choice for a partner in government. She hasn’t wavered from this and I think it’s helped to settle down some of the wilder speculation that came out of that CB poll. Hopefully that line of attack has been overtaken by the more recent polls. Does anyone know the timeline of this one?

  7. lurgee 7

    Wonder who selectively leaked the poll? “Favourability” is not quite the same as “Preferred PM” and I’d rather see the full results before I break open the (organic, co-operative, zero-carbon) Champagne.

    I don’t like being feed propaganda by either side.

    • In Vino 7.1

      You realise that you have to drink that Champagne very quickly so that the bubbles leach as little as possible CO2 into the atmosphere? And no burping!

  8. swordfish 8

    Comparisons (2011-17) (Updated)

    UMR (One Month out)

    UMR Aug 2017 ………. Aug 2014 ……….. Oct 2011
    Nat 40 …………………………. 45 ……………………. 50
    Lab 37 …………………………. 27 ……………………. 28
    NZF 9 …………………………… 6 ………………………. 3
    Green 8 ………………………. 15 ……………………. 13

    Leader Favourability

    UMR Aug 2017
    Net Rating
    English + 20
    Aug 2014
    Key + 24
    Oct 2011
    Key + 46

    UMR Aug 2017
    Net Rating
    Ardern + 60
    Aug 2014
    Cunliffe (No Data but almost Certainly in Negative territory)
    Oct 2011
    Goff = (Fav & UnFav Equal 46-46)

    Little + 21 (debut December 2014)

    • swordfish 8.1

      + 60 !!! = That is an absolutely fucking extraordinary debut by Ardern

      Helen Clark’s highest ever Net Favourability rating = + 58 (March 2000)
      She averaged + 31 over her 3 terms (vs Key averaged + 32)

      Hence Trevett’s:

      However, Ardern’s first two weeks in the job had impressed voters

      is a bit of an understatement !

    • swordfish 8.2

      Country’s Direction

      UMR Aug 2017 ……….…. Aug 2014 ……….. Oct 2011

      Right 56 …………………………. 59 ……………………. 59
      Wrong 35 ………………………. 31 ……………………. 28
      Net + 21 ……………………… + 28 …………………… + 31

      (Note – Aug 2014 = something of an outlier – 3 immediately previous & 2 immediately following 2014 UMRs all had Right Direction 63-66% & Wrong 23-29% = so …… + 34 to + 43 range)

      • Ad 8.2.1

        That’s held up remarkably.

        Little wonder it’s been a slow slippage for National, and shows Jacindas power against it.

  9. That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

    Perhaps that’s because most public polls over-state National’s support.

  10. Greg 10

    Bye bill and the gang

  11. TheBlackKitten 11

    The real sad thing is that this National government is campaigning this election for a fourth term. labour should be a country mile ahead of them in the polls. Yet here you are celebrating that they are within a 3percent grasp. Shouldn’t you be wondering why they are not romping ahead in the polls with a party that is campaigning for a 4th term in government?

    • Ad 11.1

      You’ve been asleep for 9 years?

    • The real sad thing is that this National government is campaigning this election for a fourth term. labour should be a country mile ahead of them in the polls.

      You’re not holding to the delusional idea that it’s Labour’s turn are you?

  12. bwaghorn 12

    starting to think labour at 43+ and greens at 9 come election day. bye bye nats bye bye act and dunne and see you later winny

    • Carolyn_nth 12.1

      I think Labour post election, will still look to include NZ First as their idea of a balance to the more left wing Greens. Basically, for the left, this means it’s important to raise the GP vote as much as possible.

      • Muttonbird 12.1.1

        I’m not sure it’s about balance, more about what can be done to gauge the government.

        I’m interested in what would happen if Labour and the Nats are pretty much even. Labour would first consider a government with the Greens but not if it is going to be trumped by a Nats/NZF counter government (NZF could go with either which makes them no better than the Maori Party and UF, imo).

        We know the Greens won’t form a government with the Nats so it makes sense for Labour to consider NZF first and then getting the Greens on board.

        Don’t forget that Peters’ opposition to working with the Greens is based on their social justice policy, which has unfortunately been silenced. RWNJs believe that the resignation of Key paved the way for a NZF/Nat coalition but equally Turei’s resignation has allowed for the possibility of NZF and the Greens being in the same government.

        • Carolyn_nth 12.1.1.1

          Even if Labour can form a government with just the GP, they won’t if they can also pull NZ First onboard.

          This is what John key did in his first term. People were at first surprised, then saw it as smart that he formed alliances with ACT, Dunne and the Mp, even though he didn’t need the Māori Party to govern. It enabled him to maintain control, and not be beholden to any one party.

          I think Ardern’s LP, which is pretty centrist, will also look to do the same. Many on the right of the LP have no liking for the GP.

        • Incognito 12.1.1.2

          … their social justice policy, which has unfortunately been silenced.

          Surely, you don’t mean or believe this!?

          This kind of ‘meme’ needs to be neutralised immediately with a countervailing message that the Green party has not given up the fight that Metiria Turei took to a new level and they will not forsake the people for whom she took the fall. Otherwise they’d been playing right into the hands of political opponents (…).

          James Shaw said as much in a recent speech: https://www.greens.org.nz/news/speech/turning-tide-speech-auckland-13-august-2017

  13. millsy 13

    Labour can probably do this. But as said before, they are going to have to work harder than they have ever worked before.

    A win is not impossible, In 1983, Bob Hawke became leader of the ALP 4 weeks out from an election.

  14. swordfish 14

    Trevett

    The UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.

    2014
    National Party %
    Poll Average ……. June …… July …. Aug ……. Sep

    UMR ………………… 49………. 48 …….… 45……… 47
    CB ……………………. 50 ……… 52 ….….…49….….. 47
    RR ……………………. 50 ……… 49 …………46 ……. 46
    RM …………………… 49 ……… 49 …………47………47
    HD …………………… 50 ….……55 ………… 50…….. 49
    FI ……………….………57….. .… 55 ………… 53 …..…52
    2014 Result = 47

    Well yeah kind of ….Trevs ……although UMR was little diff from RR & RM with the 2 defunct Polls – HD & FI – seemingly overstating Nat support significantly & CB mildly

    UMR looked most realistic of the Pollsters in 2014 given Nat’s 47% result

    (Bear in mind, too, that – according to both Farrar and Hooton – National Party strategists credit Kim Dotcom’s “Moment of Truth” with the relative ease of John Key’s third election victory. Apparently, Farrar’s last Curia Internals for National showed a 2 point swing to the Blue Team during the final 5 days of the 2014 Election Campaign (in the immediate wake of the “MoT”).

    Which suggests – all things being equal / in the normal course of events – that the Nats were heading for 45% in 2014.)

  15. Dspare 15

    Thanks for the link to the livestream. Surprising amount of applause for Andrew Little (around 50 minute mark – though I’ve only been glancing at it until I saw it was Ardern talking). I thought it was classy of her to be so gracious to her predecessor’s efforts in consolidating Labour.

    • lprent 15.1

      No problem.

      Nice of Labour to pop it up just as I was sitting down at work to test my last bit of code for this two year project. Watching it on my lower screen, while coding and testing on the upper two.

  16. Dspare 16

    Huge applause for free education announcement (around 1 hour mark):

    “We will change our schools from a place of assessment to a place of of creativity [applause].
    We will open our night schools… [the rest lost to gigantic applause]”

    One glitch I’ve found is that the sound mutes when I make a comment, but it comes back if I click on the volume slider, so it is not that big a deal.

    • Dspare 16.1

      The hugging and acknowledging each candidate during the song (“we had no idea” is hopefully not the title of it) after the climatic; Let’s do this, was a nice touch.

      [comment16 was supposed to be a reply to lprent at 15.1, but that was probably me being distracted and not using the right button]

      • mauī 16.1.1

        Followed by the Naked and Famous’s Higher:

        Nothing but genuine
        Built on a skeleton
        Of fractured parts
        That only raise our voices…

        ….Better believe the sea of changes
        And put these battered bones to rest
        Nothing invisible or nameless

  17. mauī 17

    This looks quite a leftist speech with plenty of Green parallels. Talking about kids in poverty a lot, tackling property speculators, overhauling education standards. I wonder when the push back from the media will come..

  18. CLEANGREEN 18

    Goodbye National I saw Jacinda speaking to a very large crowd at the Auckland town hall today, in an inspiring uplifting speech that almost bought tears to my eyes.

    The words touched my heart, as finally we have a new leader for labour who is caring about “every person and every province of NZ,”.

    Jacinda said she and Labour will listen to every person who has something to say.

    It has been nine hard painful years since we used to talk by email to Helen Clark & Michael Cullen about our HB heavy truck gridlock problems as a community group.

    National have since 2008 have ignored our pleas for help, & they simply turned away from working with our community groups.

    Bill & Steven, now where is a new party about to take over the treasury benches and evict you Bill English and Steven Joyce, so farewell and go pack your bags.

    • Carolyn_nth 18.1

      I saw David Cunliffe give an extremely uplifting speech in west Auckland a few years back.

      But he had the likes of Gower against him, and not cheer-leading for him.

    • Ed 18.2

      Brilliant speech.

  19. mary_a 19

    I’m beginning to think the swamp is about to be well and truly drained next month 🙂

  20. Thinkerr 20

    if Nat + NZF is greater than Labour + Green, there could still be problems.

    Labour might need to court Winston at a time when National are desperate enough to offer almost anything.

    Need to keep reminding Winston that National eats its coalition partners (or has done so far).

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    4 hours ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 hours ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 hours ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    7 hours ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    9 hours ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    11 hours ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 day ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    1 day ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    2 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    2 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    2 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    3 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    3 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    4 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    5 days ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    6 days ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    6 days ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    6 days ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    7 days ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    7 days ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Democracy – I Don’t Think So
    So, those who “know best” have again done their worst. While constantly claiming to be the guardians of democracy and the constitution, and respecters of the 2016 referendum result, diehard Remainers (who have never brought themselves to believe that their advice could have been rejected) have striven might and main ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago

No feed items found.