- Date published:
8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments
Categories: election 2017, jacinda ardern, labour, polls - Tags: #ChangeTheGovt, election 2017, let's do this, polls, UMR poll
Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll:
Labour’s polling closes gap on National
The Labour Party will hold its campaign launch today with its own poll putting it just three points adrift of National – and bringing heartening news for Labour’s potential support partner the Greens.
The Herald has seen the latest UMR poll results – Labour’s polling company – for a poll which ended on August 17.
That had National down three points from the week before to just 40 per cent – although the UMR poll traditionally has National at a lower level than most public polls.
Labour was up one point since the week before to 37 per cent – the same level of support it had in the One News Colmar Brunton poll released this week.
In National’s favour, the majority of people were still optimistic about the country’s direction – 56 per cent to 35 per cent negative.
However, Ardern’s first two weeks in the job had impressed voters – her favourability rating was 70 per cent to Prime Minister Bill English’s 57 per cent. And only 10 per cent viewed her unfavourably compared to 37 per cent for English.
The momentum is all one way. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?
Update: Greens steady at 8% in this poll, see Vernon Small: More good news for Labour as Jacinda Ardern prepares for campaign launch
Update: Official launch video
(If it doesn’t embed use link)
Labour supporters waiting for Ardern in the Auckland town hall. pic.twitter.com/rEHyC7uNAW
— Barry Soper (@barrysoper) August 20, 2017
.@jacindaardern walks onstage at our campaign launch to a standing ovation! 👏👏👏 #LetsDoThis pic.twitter.com/O4eSS4E6qD
— New Zealand Labour (@nzlabour) August 20, 2017
Jacinda Arden's goal: End child poverty https://t.co/Eno9rhkc7q #Decision17 pic.twitter.com/ZB9ORgYq2n
— Newshub (@NewshubNZ) August 20, 2017
Jacinda Ardern says her father knows about the effects of climate change – he's seen them in Kiribati https://t.co/nqpBMCKR7k #Decision17
— Newshub Politics (@NewshubPolitics) August 20, 2017
There's 1200 people in the Town Hall, 500 in the overflow room watching a livestream, and another 300 at Q Theatre #LabourCampaignLaunch pic.twitter.com/ID6Ezqo1Vp
— Newshub Politics (@NewshubPolitics) August 20, 2017
Helen Clark is attending her first Labour election event since she left after the 2008 election https://t.co/yBs0ETcpE0
— nzherald (@nzherald) August 20, 2017
Look at these guys! #letsdothis pic.twitter.com/7Ish5CHeZT
— David Clark (@DavidClarkNZ) August 20, 2017
40% – Stephen Joyce will be panicking.
And Peter Dunne looks gone too.
It would be nice to see the Curia poll that Farrar and Joyce are refusing to release…..Nats 39% anybody?
Trevett should also have mentioned the Roy Morgan and the fact that the Greens have now polled 9 and 8 since the CB 4.3, but the Right are desperate to get rid of the Greens.
Can we assume nats internal.polling is reason for story about artists and auctions today?
Of course, the fault could be with most public polls that over-represent National voters.
Not the case for most . Most polls last time were close to the result for national/labour.
Its the greens they overestimate .
The Herald was too high for national as well but within margin of error
If you dig back 3 or 4 years in this forum, you’ll find me rubbishing the idea of a Labour led government being successful with Labour stuck in the mid 20s. While technically possible, I opined that to be credible, the major partner had to have a substantial vote – I think I suggested mid to high 30s. Otherwise it would look like a stolen election and the parties in coalition would rapidly lose favour, and the opposition thrive.
Well, now it looks like Labour are moving into the zone where they can form that credible government. I think they will struggle to get across the line, because I think WInston will ultimately go with National, rather than Labour-Greens. But good show, far better than I was expecting, carry on.
(And since I’ve been so colossally wrong about the impact of changing leader you are free to ignore my pessimistic instincts.)
Though I suspect the media are just waiting for the first blip, the first 1% fall in Labour’s ratings, to proclaim “JACINDERMANIA IS OVER” and “REALITY SETS IN AS VOTERS FACE CHOICE” and “LABOUR PLUMMET AS GLOSS WEARS OFF ARDERN.”
37+8=45 is very close to being able to form a Lab/Gr government without Winnie.
Hopefully we’ll see both continue to increase their support which is entirely possible.
My dream of Labour in the high 30s low 40s and the Greens 10-12 ish, is looking likely. No need for Winston.
That is a highly unlikely result. When the major party (Labour or National) poll well, the small parties who are naturally aligned to them poll low. So if Labour is in the high 30’s or low 40’s then the Greens will poll low. Not necessarily below 5, but likely 6 or 7.
Same with National polling well driveing Act down. Because National has got as high as 47 (2014) Act gets 1 or 2.
You are ignoring the Trudeau-Macron-Corbyn effect Wayne. These are strange times.
(Trump not included because he lost the popular vote by 3 million on a turn out of 58%)
From what I am hearing, the manner in which the Greens were targeted is likely to be counterproductive.
Sure a lot of their soft support has gone to Labour. But it doesn’t appear to have touched their core support which is well above 5% of the voters. To date I haven’t found someone who I know has been a long term Green supporter shifting. In fact it mostly just seems to be a topic for those who’d never vote Green.
Moreover a lot of the greener / left activists and supporters from Labour are now far more likely to vote Green this election now that they look like they have something worth supporting in the social justice sphere. I know that I am likely to do so.
Most of us who directly or indirectly have had to deal with the National version of a torture chamber called WINZ have some fairly strong opinions on them and the government that drives them. Shining a light on the employment of petty sadists or rules to make people into that in the pursuit of ridiculous punitive and vindictive pandering to gain support amongst National’s conservative constituency is a damn good idea.
Personally I don’t pay my large taxes for frigging National to waste half of what goes to those in need to employ people and tactics that wouldn’t go amiss in Dante’s Inferno.
Virtually none of us use landlines any more we won’t show up in the surveys by the more conservative pollsters like Farrar or Colmar Brunton. So the polling is getting ever more inaccurate.
But anyway, who cares. There is a real poll on September 23rd. I suggest that you wait for that to reveal the difference between fantasy polls and electoral reality. These polls coming out now are more indicative propaganda than reflecting reality.
Nicely put lprent-couldn’t agree more.
As a Green voter with strong Labour sympathies I am more likely than ever (given the current polling) to stick with the Greens to make sure they have a strong representation in parliament and to be sure they get over 5%…not that this is really in doubt at all.
if the green vote is stable that is a good thing ,Jacinda only has to sunk in another 2 percent and its game over for Winnie and national its very possible after yesterday,
In 2 weeks Labour will overtake National.
Poll news reinforce trends through media.
It’s like a 2008 re-run, reversed.
The Greens natural level is 8-10. With the momentum Labour have currently they only have to pick up a few % of light blues, and bingo.
Winston will probably pick up a lot of votes as National crumbles – their bedrock support used to be 23% but that was getting on for twenty years ago – a lot of them will have died since then.
I can’t see any reason currently that Labour should slide in the polls. There is a mood for change and a realisation amongst many that the current government don’t want to do anything tangible to sort the issues that people really care about. So far Labour look like a viable alternative. Should Ardern not have a good showing in the debates or something comes from left field that’s negative for Labour then this of course could change Labours fortunes. And as for NZ First, I too once thought that it couldn’t or wouldn’t go with Labour but I’m not as certain as I once was about this. It’s still a rather unusual prospect though because NZ1 is innately conservative whereas Labour is far less so.
Let’s remember that the one time they went with National the alliance didn’t go the distance. (Of course, government by alliance was new to NZ at the time.) They’ve governed with Labour before, and while the NZF party funding scandal caused problems towards the end, the relationship with the Clark team seemed a lot more amicable than the Bolger lot. And note, Clark didn’t kowtow to him with Deputy PM status.
Winston, I think, got on OK with Bolger. It was only after Shipley´s coup that problems arose. I think he would go OK with English also, but I still he will go with Labour because of policies they have in common.
I hope your right, in a Winston controlled result that’s the preferable option. people will argue that he’ll never team up with the Greens, however some of us recall in the lead-up to his last king-making stint in 1996 that he was adamant there was no way he could ever enter into a coalition with National… til he did.
Polls vary, because they don’t ask exactly the same people every time.
If the next poll is a couple of points down, it is probably just that natural variation. Quite probably, the current poll is a bit ‘up’ on the true level of support. But journalists are so intent on creating drama and excitement that any slight shift is presented as a momentous change in public opinion, not just, you know, sampling variation.
I get contacted quite frequently by pollsters and that has probably lead to Mana being over-represented in the polls.
Good one lurgee! Do you know how Hone is getting on in TTT?
No idea, as I’m in Palmerston North, which must confuse the pollsters even more. And given I’m a picture boy for the Aryan Nation, if they even did a face-to-face they’d go home completely baffled …
We have to keep from feeling or appearing complacent – this is too important to sit back and watch from the sidelines and it’s also crucial that we don’t self-implode. It was heartening to see Ardern reaffirming Labour’s commitment to the MOU, her belief that the Greens will be in the next parliament and that they are Labour’s first choice for a partner in government. She hasn’t wavered from this and I think it’s helped to settle down some of the wilder speculation that came out of that CB poll. Hopefully that line of attack has been overtaken by the more recent polls. Does anyone know the timeline of this one?
Wonder who selectively leaked the poll? “Favourability” is not quite the same as “Preferred PM” and I’d rather see the full results before I break open the (organic, co-operative, zero-carbon) Champagne.
I don’t like being feed propaganda by either side.
You realise that you have to drink that Champagne very quickly so that the bubbles leach as little as possible CO2 into the atmosphere? And no burping!
Comparisons (2011-17) (Updated)
UMR (One Month out)
UMR Aug 2017 ………. Aug 2014 ……….. Oct 2011
Nat 40 …………………………. 45 ……………………. 50
Lab 37 …………………………. 27 ……………………. 28
NZF 9 …………………………… 6 ………………………. 3
Green 8 ………………………. 15 ……………………. 13
UMR Aug 2017
English + 20
Key + 24
Key + 46
UMR Aug 2017
Ardern + 60
Cunliffe (No Data but almost Certainly in Negative territory)
Goff = (Fav & UnFav Equal 46-46)
Little + 21 (debut December 2014)
+ 60 !!! = That is an absolutely fucking extraordinary debut by Ardern
Helen Clark’s highest ever Net Favourability rating = + 58 (March 2000)
She averaged + 31 over her 3 terms (vs Key averaged + 32)
is a bit of an understatement !
UMR Aug 2017 ……….…. Aug 2014 ……….. Oct 2011
Right 56 …………………………. 59 ……………………. 59
Wrong 35 ………………………. 31 ……………………. 28
Net + 21 ……………………… + 28 …………………… + 31
(Note – Aug 2014 = something of an outlier – 3 immediately previous & 2 immediately following 2014 UMRs all had Right Direction 63-66% & Wrong 23-29% = so …… + 34 to + 43 range)
That’s held up remarkably.
Little wonder it’s been a slow slippage for National, and shows Jacindas power against it.
Perhaps that’s because most public polls over-state National’s support.
Bye bill and the gang
The real sad thing is that this National government is campaigning this election for a fourth term. labour should be a country mile ahead of them in the polls. Yet here you are celebrating that they are within a 3percent grasp. Shouldn’t you be wondering why they are not romping ahead in the polls with a party that is campaigning for a 4th term in government?
You’ve been asleep for 9 years?
You’re not holding to the delusional idea that it’s Labour’s turn are you?
starting to think labour at 43+ and greens at 9 come election day. bye bye nats bye bye act and dunne and see you later winny
I think Labour post election, will still look to include NZ First as their idea of a balance to the more left wing Greens. Basically, for the left, this means it’s important to raise the GP vote as much as possible.
I’m not sure it’s about balance, more about what can be done to gauge the government.
I’m interested in what would happen if Labour and the Nats are pretty much even. Labour would first consider a government with the Greens but not if it is going to be trumped by a Nats/NZF counter government (NZF could go with either which makes them no better than the Maori Party and UF, imo).
We know the Greens won’t form a government with the Nats so it makes sense for Labour to consider NZF first and then getting the Greens on board.
Don’t forget that Peters’ opposition to working with the Greens is based on their social justice policy, which has unfortunately been silenced. RWNJs believe that the resignation of Key paved the way for a NZF/Nat coalition but equally Turei’s resignation has allowed for the possibility of NZF and the Greens being in the same government.
Even if Labour can form a government with just the GP, they won’t if they can also pull NZ First onboard.
This is what John key did in his first term. People were at first surprised, then saw it as smart that he formed alliances with ACT, Dunne and the Mp, even though he didn’t need the Māori Party to govern. It enabled him to maintain control, and not be beholden to any one party.
I think Ardern’s LP, which is pretty centrist, will also look to do the same. Many on the right of the LP have no liking for the GP.
Surely, you don’t mean or believe this!?
This kind of ‘meme’ needs to be neutralised immediately with a countervailing message that the Green party has not given up the fight that Metiria Turei took to a new level and they will not forsake the people for whom she took the fall. Otherwise they’d been playing right into the hands of political opponents (…).
James Shaw said as much in a recent speech: https://www.greens.org.nz/news/speech/turning-tide-speech-auckland-13-august-2017
I meant temporarily silenced. I remember thinking i needed to edit it but forgot.
You have now edited it 😉
Labour can probably do this. But as said before, they are going to have to work harder than they have ever worked before.
A win is not impossible, In 1983, Bob Hawke became leader of the ALP 4 weeks out from an election.
National Party %
Poll Average ……. June …… July …. Aug ……. Sep
UMR ………………… 49………. 48 …….… 45……… 47
CB ……………………. 50 ……… 52 ….….…49….….. 47
RR ……………………. 50 ……… 49 …………46 ……. 46
RM …………………… 49 ……… 49 …………47………47
HD …………………… 50 ….……55 ………… 50…….. 49
FI ……………….………57….. .… 55 ………… 53 …..…52
2014 Result = 47
Well yeah kind of ….Trevs ……although UMR was little diff from RR & RM with the 2 defunct Polls – HD & FI – seemingly overstating Nat support significantly & CB mildly
UMR looked most realistic of the Pollsters in 2014 given Nat’s 47% result
(Bear in mind, too, that – according to both Farrar and Hooton – National Party strategists credit Kim Dotcom’s “Moment of Truth” with the relative ease of John Key’s third election victory. Apparently, Farrar’s last Curia Internals for National showed a 2 point swing to the Blue Team during the final 5 days of the 2014 Election Campaign (in the immediate wake of the “MoT”).
Which suggests – all things being equal / in the normal course of events – that the Nats were heading for 45% in 2014.)
Thanks for the link to the livestream. Surprising amount of applause for Andrew Little (around 50 minute mark – though I’ve only been glancing at it until I saw it was Ardern talking). I thought it was classy of her to be so gracious to her predecessor’s efforts in consolidating Labour.
Nice of Labour to pop it up just as I was sitting down at work to test my last bit of code for this two year project. Watching it on my lower screen, while coding and testing on the upper two.
Huge applause for free education announcement (around 1 hour mark):
“We will change our schools from a place of assessment to a place of of creativity [applause].
We will open our night schools… [the rest lost to gigantic applause]”
One glitch I’ve found is that the sound mutes when I make a comment, but it comes back if I click on the volume slider, so it is not that big a deal.
The hugging and acknowledging each candidate during the song (“we had no idea” is hopefully not the title of it) after the climatic; Let’s do this, was a nice touch.
[comment16 was supposed to be a reply to lprent at 15.1, but that was probably me being distracted and not using the right button]
Followed by the Naked and Famous’s Higher:
Nothing but genuine
Built on a skeleton
Of fractured parts
That only raise our voices…
….Better believe the sea of changes
And put these battered bones to rest
Nothing invisible or nameless
This looks quite a leftist speech with plenty of Green parallels. Talking about kids in poverty a lot, tackling property speculators, overhauling education standards. I wonder when the push back from the media will come..
Goodbye National I saw Jacinda speaking to a very large crowd at the Auckland town hall today, in an inspiring uplifting speech that almost bought tears to my eyes.
The words touched my heart, as finally we have a new leader for labour who is caring about “every person and every province of NZ,”.
Jacinda said she and Labour will listen to every person who has something to say.
It has been nine hard painful years since we used to talk by email to Helen Clark & Michael Cullen about our HB heavy truck gridlock problems as a community group.
National have since 2008 have ignored our pleas for help, & they simply turned away from working with our community groups.
Bill & Steven, now where is a new party about to take over the treasury benches and evict you Bill English and Steven Joyce, so farewell and go pack your bags.
I saw David Cunliffe give an extremely uplifting speech in west Auckland a few years back.
But he had the likes of Gower against him, and not cheer-leading for him.
I’m beginning to think the swamp is about to be well and truly drained next month 🙂
if Nat + NZF is greater than Labour + Green, there could still be problems.
Labour might need to court Winston at a time when National are desperate enough to offer almost anything.
Need to keep reminding Winston that National eats its coalition partners (or has done so far).