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Daily review 03/05/2022

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, May 3rd, 2022 - 27 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

27 comments on “Daily review 03/05/2022 ”

  1. Dennis Frank 1

    Three's political poll, leading their news tonight. National 40%, Labour 38%, Greens 8%, ACT 6%, MP 2%. Didn't mention the percentage who didn't know so it's reporting only those who expressed a preference. Ardern down 7% as pref PM, Luxon up 8%. The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 18 April – 27 April 2022

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-labour-suffers-dramatic-fall-as-national-cracks-40-pct.html

    • Kat 1.1

      Did the poll identify any particular demographic that is swinging towards National.

      • Dennis Frank 1.1.1

        No but they don't usually do that anyway. People will claim it as Luxon's honeymoon still happening but I'm inclined to disagree. The guy's an airhead.

        I think it's more a reflection of months during which Labour has seemed adrift. No political management happening. The public are sensitive to mood shifts…

        • Kat 1.1.1.1

          Still that's a fair chunk of vote back to National just from October 2020, a real conundrum when you have both a govt and a sizable percentage of the electorate adrift.

          My thoughts are Luxon may have made his move too soon, hence the early surge. Jacinda is a warrior, she can handle the pressure and give back in spades but I agree with your comment re no political management and she has to direct some serious PR focus in that direction.

      • Anne 1.1.2

        I would say its middle incomers Kat. Confess that is based on my relatives who fall into the middle bracket. They have big mortgages and are starting to hurt. A tax-cut sounds good to them. They probably yet to realise they’re not going to get as much as they think.

        Its up to Labour to point it out to them at every opportunity.

        • Kat 1.1.2.1

          I would say its also gender Anne, just look at these percentage breakdowns from the Roy Morgan polling:

          Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 54.5% for women aged 18-49 compared to only 38.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 50+ support is at 49.5% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 43.5% for National/ Act NZ.

          There is a stark difference for men with 54% supporting National or Act NZ. In March 49% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 40% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 61.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 30% supporting Labour/ Greens.

    • Poission 2.1

      Between the US fed and the RBNZ the wealth destruction that is entrenched for over priced assets will ensure a transfer of wealth to more taxable earnings.

  2. Corey Humm 3

    Tonight's polls is pretty damn good considering 5 year of govt going through mid term blue, COVID hang over, inflation and cost of living costs soaring and govt fumbling over messaging for six months.

    It's a poll where national still can't govern which considering everything is a win.

    I've always thought the middle of this year was going to be rough and labour would lose throughout the middle of the year but luckily it's happening this year not next year. Economic conditions right now aren't expected to be the same next year.

    Budget is coming up and with it hopefully labour gets a wee boost.

    Ardern is also probably NZs best political campaigner in a generation and labour will no doubt engage in lots and lots of retail politics for students, middle class families and pensioners.

    Labour however, does need to shred some of its planned reforms that are extremely unpopular or drastically change them. Labour doesn't have political capital and a sensible govt would change tact.

    Labour desperately needs that cabinet reshuffle, a big pr blitz like the great NZ upgrade and to recapture the narrative.

    Tames interview with luxon shows how easy his to attack and how he falls apart and how his arguments don't hold up on spending. Instead of attacking Luxon on his wealth attack him on the gst rises he'll inact to fund his tax cuts noone cares how rich he is, they all think they will be rich, people care about their day to day costs increasing because of gst increases (labour should announce gst cuts thats a tax cut that helps everyone, double gst for online shopping from foreign vendors and lower it for local vendors)

    Biggest problem Labour has will be turn out. They don't even need to win the popular vote. They also need to start giving young mps ministerial experience and have a secession plan so when labour eventually goes into opposition there's leadership experience cos former ministers won't stay on. If they do this labour will implode like last time and like national this time.

    They need to start speaking the same language as their voters and not sound like arrogant geeks. Answer questions with one sentence not six paragraphs of technocratic policy wonk. Get parker off the am show and put Kiri or Mcnaulty on the future of the party not the nerdy arrogant past he's extremely unlikable.

    Labour needs to get back to short snappy answers that connect with voters on an emotional level not more technocratic dribble.

    A new speaker is needed also. It's time speakers don't do two terms often.

    And from now on labours policies should be focused soley in housing. Infrastructure. Cost of living and health (non COVID related, only 1 in 4 heart attacks are arriving in hospital alive) anything that's not popular can go.

    Long rant noone will read but this isn't bad for Labour. I thought labour might be down to low 30s not 38% and the fact national still can't govern is a win.

    Retail politics retail politics retail politics (in the case of the supermarket sector literally)

    • Anne 3.1

      "Long rant noone will read but this isn't bad for Labour."

      I read it Corey and you make some good points.

      Labour however, does need to shred some of its planned reforms that are extremely unpopular or drastically change them.

      Labour is not very good at explaining their policies. I guess it is a problem for a progressive party unlike National who don't know what the word means. I lost count the number of times I have yelled at the TV screen telling the Labour spokesperson "for god's sake tell them this, that or the other". They never did.

      They need to start speaking the same language as their voters and not sound like arrogant geeks. Answer questions with one sentence not six paragraphs of technocratic policy wonk. (My bold)

      They're a lot better than they used to be, but still have a way to go… especially the lengthy paragraphs where they lose the listener/reader after the first few sentences.

      I always remember Helen Clark's pledge card. Short and snappy – five simple sentences. It worked so well National spent the next five years trying to discredit it.

    • Patricia Bremner 3.2

      Sharp and on point and always worth reading.smiley

    • higherstandard 3.3

      Labour still polling in the high 30s is testament to the woeful state of the choice the voting public has when casting their vote at the next election.

    • weka 3.4

      lots of thought provoking stuff there, thanks. What are the planned reforms you think it should slow down on or back off from?

    • Vivie 3.5

      Corey Humm: your comments about David Parker surprise me. I like his direct, matter of fact style. He is certainly more than a match for Nicola Willis, whose abrasive and overbearing manner is very off-putting, aside from National's policies which are clearly targeted towards the wealthy minority.

  3. weka 4

    Does anyone actually know who is allowed into the country and under what conditions currently?

    • Craig H 4.1

      https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19/border-closures-and-exceptions/border-entry-requirements

      • a New Zealand citizen
      • a New Zealand permanent resident or resident visa holder
      • the partner or dependent child of a New Zealand citizen or resident, and you hold a visa based on this relationship
      • an Australian citizen or permanent resident visa holder
      • a working holiday visa holder
      • a work visa holder and you still meet the visa conditions
      • a student visa holder and you still meet the visa conditions
      • a visitor visa holder
      • a visa waiver traveller who holds an NZeTA
      • someone who met a critical purpose reason to travel and was granted a visa as an exception to the border restrictions
      • a transit visa holder.
  4. joe90 5

    The thug in the Kremlin will be delighted with these useful idiots.

  5. Joe90 6

    Tl;dr new variants, abating severity, still deadly to elderly and vulnerable Multiple waves every year, 2/3x current flu outbreaks. Decling vaccine efficacy, 2x annual boosters for some. Declining post infection immunity. Vigilance and surveillance key.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521232264616550400.html

  6. Incognito 7

    The General Election is still miles away. We’ll first have:

    2 Budgets

    1 Local Elections

    1 By-Election

    1 Wedding of the Year

    1 Summer like in the old days

    • weka 7.1

      most of the fourth year of the pandemic, although I guess at some point we stop calling it a pandemic?

    • Poission 7.2

      1 Kings Birthday

      7 OCR increases.

      2 By Elections

      An extended duck season for Mallards

      A winter of rolling brown outs

  7. weston 8

    Wish we had a couple of passionate lefties like these !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7KbCFdWyRQ

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