Latest Reid Research poll result disastrous for National and Bridges

Written By: - Date published: 6:04 pm, February 11th, 2019 - 248 comments
Categories: greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, Simon Bridges, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags:


Tova O’Brien described this poll as being “a doozy” and “huge”.

She was not wrong.

From what I can tell this is the first Reid Research poll since May last year.

Results are:

Labour 47.5%

National 41.6%

NZ First 2.9%

Green 5.1%

And the preferred Prime Minister results are:

Jacinda Ardern 41.8%

Simon Bridges 5%

Judith Collins 6.2%

That scraping sound you can hear is the sound of National caucus knives being sharpened.

248 comments on “Latest Reid Research poll result disastrous for National and Bridges ”

  1. r0b 1

    Hopefully we will see other polls confirm this result. This very pleasing result.

  2. Dennis Frank 2

    Dramatic result, eh? Labour up 5% despite Kiwibuild set-back! Contradicts the end of year Colmar Brunton poll not long ago, so the holidays must have shifted how centrists feel. Winston will be spooked though…

    • mickysavage 2.1

      The Colmar Brunton poll was an outlier and contradicts all of the private polling that was happening. This result just reconfirms what is happening.

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1

        Well it does put their methodology into question. I heard Tova call Reid “the country’s most accurate poll” but she can’t make that claim on the basis of stats, eh? Both poll a thousand – same margin of error.

        The Reid website says they split 750 by phone and 250 online. Is that a credible basis on which to claim it is more accurate?

      • AOC 2.1.2

        Outside of this echo chamber (and your group think cricles) New Zealand is painfully aware of the shortcomings of this socialist elite that call themselves a coalition government. The Salvation Army’s State of the Nation Report published today,has criticised the ‘wellbeing-focused Government’ for not doing enough to lift the most vulnerable New Zealanders out of poverty. People pay attention to this stuff, and no matter the smoke and mirrors communities chatter and vote accordingly. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

        [Adjusted your name for obvious reasons – MS]

    • Tricledrown 2.2

      Winston always has a better turnout at electioms

      • Phil 2.2.1

        Winston always has a better turnout at elections

        No, he literally doesn’t. It’s a myth.

        He had two lucky late-breaks that raised his profile significantly in ’05 and ’08 that were never able to be picked up in the last set of polls before those elections. In all other MMP elections from ’96 onward, NZF results are comfortably in line with where final polling says they are.

        • swordfish

          Given that we’re focussing on the latest Newshub Poll:

          NZF does indeed have a tendency to perform mildly better on Election Day:

          TV3 last poll 8.0
          Election 10.4 (+2.4)

          TV3 last poll 6.8
          Election 5.7 (-1.1)

          TV3 last poll 3.4
          Election 4.1 (+0.7)

          TV3 last poll 4.1
          Election 6.6 (+2.5)

          TV3 last poll 7.1
          Election 8.7 (+1.6)

          TV3 last poll 7.1
          Election 7.2 (+0.1)

          • Dennis Frank

            It would help if a political scientist were to produce statistical analysis of NZF voters, eh? Down to 3% now, just sitting on the margin of error.

            So, using identity politics as a tribalist frame, we can deduce that their tribe is too small without centrist supporters. Defining centrists collectively as voters who are so opportunistic they go whichever way the zeitgeist blows, then some will vote NZF again to ensure it remains in parliament to limit the natural idiocy of the Nat/Labs.

            If Shane Jones abandons pomposity and grand-standing in favour of delivering regional development policies that genuinely seem suitable, enough centrists will vote in support of NZF anyway. Kiwis like to give credit where it’s due.

            I reckon the shift of centrists from National to Labour in last nights poll is a vote of confidence in the direction the coalition is trending in, combined with a feeling that National isn’t adapting to the change in global circumstances.

            • Incognito

              Incorrect, the MOE at 2.9% is 1.04%; the mentioned MOE of polls almost always refers to the midpoint of 50% unless indicated otherwise.

            • swordfish

              Mr Dennis Frank

              statistical analysis of NZF voters, eh?


              The 2008-2014 iterations of the New Zealand Election Study suggest the bulk of NZF voters hold very similar views to the more morally conservative wing of Labour’s voting base.

              Not entirely surprising given that – over those 3 Elections – voters swinging to NZF were more than twice as likely to have been former Labour voters as former Nats.

              That represented a pretty healthy injection of Left-leaners into the NZF support-base, tilting the Party’s constituency ever further towards a Red rather than Blue orientation.

              From the NZES % stats … I calculated that, over those three consecutive elections, (and we’re talking particularly about 2011 & 2014 when NZF enjoyed their two-part comeback) something like 110k Lefties swung in Winnie’s direction as opposed to roughly 45k Nats (with a little over 60k from the broader Right as a whole).

              Essentially, younger moral liberals swung from Lab to Green … while older Labour moral conservatives headed in Winston’s direction.

              So in both the previous electoral behaviour of its new adherents and in the reciprocal swings going on between the various Parties, New Zealand First was beginning to look more and more like a third (albeit somewhat loosely affiliated) member of the Left Bloc.

              Also explains why in 3 of the last 4 Elections, a plurality or outright majority of intending NZF voters preferred a Labour rather than Nat Govt.

              • Dennis Frank

                Cool, thanks for that. Looks like the brand-building the Greens & NZF spent years doing to get their vote up around 10% failed to actually work – the people they attracted turned out to be merely fair-weather friends, just switching as a protest against the main parties.

          • Phil

            Ah, I got the years wrong.

            ‘Tea tapes’ was 2011 and is the year that immediately springs to mind where Winston was the MP that got the most last-minute traction.

            In 2014 the SFO scandal with Collins bought NZF back from the brink of oblivion in the month before the election.

            Without a scandal to give Winston media oxygen, NZF’s results are fair to middling against polling.

  3. millsy 3

    Thought it would be the other way round to be honest. Good stuff

  4. Drowsy M. Kram 4

    Hang in there Mr Bridges, long may you continue to ‘lead’ the opposition National Party.

  5. James 5

    Excellent news. Bridges is gone burger.

    Nz first are shot.

    Greens close to gone.

    Judith comes and saves the day.

    As a national supporter I’m al good with this.

    I stopped my donations while bridges was leader. Looks like I get to donate again soon #JudithForPM

    • r0b 5.1

      Nz first are shot.

      Only someone with the political attention span of a gnat would conclude this about NZF from any mid-cycle polls.


      As you were, then.

    • The Al1en 5.2

      Ignoring the fact Collins is a ‘massive’ 1.2% ahead of Bridges at 6.2%, and the nat caucus hates her more than Labour’s did with Cunliffe, yeah Judith for PM 😆 :smirk: :bellylaugh:

      • marty mars 5.2.1

        She loves herself so much it doesn’t matter that others don’t even like her.

        • The Al1en

          She won’t go for it, I reckon. She knows she’s widely detested, and people like her, despite all the front on show, can’t deal with rejection that will surely eventuate.
          She’ll get behind Mitchell and play for a ministerial salary and all the business opportunities she can open for her old fella’s company.

          • marty mars

            She will struggle with her animal cunning will to survive and the ego-preening that comes from people addressing you as leader. Time is ticking and there are only so many opportunities for her to grasp power. I think she’ll pounce soon – what the hell has she got to lose? Nothing.

            • The Al1en

              Time will tell. I suspect it all depends on whether she’s arrogant enough to think she can keep her ‘dealings’ on the down low. She’s been caught out more than once already, and as a party leader, the scrutiny isn’t going to lessen any.
              If she runs, and wins, every little thing will be dragged up again and looked in to, so there’s always that silver lining.

          • Muttonbird

            Mitchell? He’s the worst liar of the lot since Key abandoned ship.

            • The Al1en

              And that negatively affects nat leadership candidates how exactly?
              In fact, some would say, that’s 90% of the job description.

          • patricia bremner

            That is what I think as well.

        • cleangreen

          She’s to soiled by her underhanded connections and obvious work she has with the Chinese communist party..

          The Chinese Communist party do not sanction such a close alliance with anyone who is not Chinese as they have with Collins.

    • McFlock 5.3

      How many times have NZ1 been doomed, never to stalk the halls of Parliament again?

      Bold call, that man.

      [edit: [snap] R0b

      • Stunned Mullet 5.3.1

        Winston will be 75+ at the next election, NZ first is widely panned by a number of their supporters who perceive a betrayal of promises made before the election in relation to immigration in particular and the heir(s) apparent to Winston’s throne in NZF are either not well liked or not in the same class as WP.

        Unless one of the other parties provide a seat for NZF at the next election I’d be very surprised if they don’t fail to make the threshold and disappear from NZ politics for evermore.

        • McFlock

          Always a possibility, never a certainty.

          I suspect later on this year the smaller parties will begin trumpeting one or two key policy wins that clearly separate them from each other. If it’s background fizzle, they’ll take a hit, but if a wee bit of kayfabe goes on with Labour going “goddamn it, we’d have done/avoided X if it weren’t for those meddling kids”, the partners get back a few percent.

        • patricia bremner

          Fear not Stunned Mullet, Winston has been grooming Tabiteau for the succession. He is brilliant and a good communicator. But Winston is enjoying life and he is capable of continuing. Winston at half speed could out manoeuvre any of the gnats… especially Collins and Mitchell. He is like a good whiskey, better with age.

      • Wayne 5.3.2

        Twice (1999 and 2008) NZF has dipped below 5%, both times in the election following their choice of government. Though in both those cases there was also a change of government. So NZF are at genuine risk.

        In 2020 NZF will have to show how they can be an effective handbrake on Labour, if it looks like Labour will be the largest party after the 2020 election (and thus the government). Though they will have to pitch that in a positive way.

        • KJT

          I doubt that many NZF, supporters, especially the working class ones, who voted for him after Labour abandoned them, will be very happy about his parties sell out to Talley’s, and his failure to limit immigration. The handbrake from NZF on workers rights will not be ignored by them.
          Winston may have done his dash?

          We could start a party for those people. Maybe it could be called the “Labour party”.

        • Dennis Frank

          Struck me last night that the NZF drop is the main news, although I do acknowledge centrists are giving Labour more support than they deserve.

          David Mac got it. Shane Jones is turning people off. His style somewhat, but mainly his delivery of regional development. I reckon they don’t like how he’s doing it. So I give credit to National for exposing him effectively.

          Other centrists are not, however! Or, more likely, they grudgingly concede that point to National but are so underwhelmed by National’s total failure to notice that the world has changed and they need to change with it, that they are feeling the need to support Labour temporarily in order to get the message through the concrete in National heads.

        • McFlock

          lol so maybe they’re the kiss of death to governments – makes the centrist/swing vote argument look a bit suss I guess.

          But either way, both of those times they came back from oblivion, which is the relevant point. As opposed to JAPC, UF and ACT, which lasted a while on electorate life support – a couple for decades. Recovery from their comas is unlikely.

          NZ1? I’ll call it dead when it deregisters, lol

    • Cinny 5.4

      Happy for you James, re judith.

      She’ll never ever be PM of NZ, too polarizing, but I do admire your continued adoration of her, it’s very sweet.

      • ScottGN 5.4.1

        Apparently she only got 1 vote from the caucus in the leadership election to replace English. So it’s probable she’ll never even get as far as leader of that party, let alone leader of the country. I’m happy though for National to inflict as much damage as possible to the party as she tries to install herself as leader.

      • veutoviper 5.4.2

        Hey, hey – James has to compete with Puckish Rogue re Judith’s affections …

      • woodart 5.4.3

        no,its not sweet. its yet another right wing male with a hardon for being dominated . instead of the rest of us being under the collins whip, james should front up to his local dominatrix by by himself…personal responsibility,,,nah,he needs his hand held……

      • James 5.4.4


        I think she’s a far better woman than Jacinda.

        • Muttonbird

          But she’s proven to be corrupt. Only another corrupt person could consider Judith a good woman.

        • Drowsy M. Kram

          Could have believed ‘a better woman’, but “a far better woman” – well now you’re being perverse.

          They are each in their own way very genuine human beings, but I wouldn’t invite the genuinely awful one to my BBQ dinner. And, based on the number of votes Collins received in the recent opposition National party leadership contest, neither would most of her caucus ‘colleagues’.

        • Cinny

          You’re welcome.

          I truly hope you get to meet her one day.

          Personally I think crusher thrives on any attention, is corrupt, greedy, a closet dominatrix and bat shit crazy.

          But hey everyone’s got different tastes.

          It looks like more nat’s prefer judiths flavour than simon. It’s gonna be game on in the blue house.

        • Psycho Milt

          I think she’s a far better woman than Jacinda.

          Where angels fear to tread, eh? Can you tell us what definition of “woman” you’re operating?

        • patricia bremner

          Your taste is all in your mouth James!! Too many charred steaks.

        • cleangreen

          James; – Whats better about Collins than Jacinda?

    • Sabine 5.5

      5.1 is enough.
      41.6 is not .

      funny how numbers work ey?

      • In Vino 5.5.1

        And silly James (although he has, I am sure, been told before) seems ignorant of the proposition that the Greens have a 5% solid core of voters who will not vote for anyone else. I am in that category – even though I am saddened by some of the dumb things Green politicians have recently done. For that solid core of Green voters, all other parties are inferior and unacceptable. James – forget your dumb pipe-dream of the Greens going below 5%. If it was ever going to happen, it would have happened now, as with NZ First.
        So face it – the Greens have proven that they are here to stay. Not good news for you and your ilk.

        • James

          I love the fact it’s a 5% core vote. Only a couple of days ago someone was saying it was 7 or 8 %.

          And now it looks like there is green competition.

          Only has to take 1% of what you th8nk is their core vote and they are goneburger.

          • In Vino

            Just who said that, James?? Last election result was only 6.3%, so it would not be a clever thing to say. Are you making it up?
            If you want to talk about burgers, stick to the ones you make on your infamous barbecues.
            solkta (below) is on the money. You are on wishful fantasy.

          • cleangreen


            Greens have a 5.3% solid base even after those like me left after 2002..

            The greens will be around a long time, and will now press hard for regional rail and other ‘common sense’ environmental sustainable platforms that NZ First had stood for before the election.

            If you want ‘NZ First common sense policies’ I will willingly post them for you if you never were familiar what they all were before the last election.

            Have a nice day.

            • james

              2011 – 2014 you would have said that the greens had a 10% core base.

              It’s halved in the last few years. Its not a good trend for your friends the greens.

        • solkta

          Yes, while there are many Labour voters happy to drift over to the Greens, true Green voters have nowhere else to go.

        • Blazer

          I suspect it is less than 5%.I voted for them for the very first time try and keep them in the game.
          On performance would not do next time.

          • Pat

            and thanks to that they achieved 6.9%…..I would be surprised given current circumstances if they fell below threshold in the foreseeable

    • mpledger 5.6

      The minor parties always suffer mid-term because voters are just thinking left or right – Labour or National. It’s only when it gets close to the election that voters think more in depth amongst about their left or right preference e.g. will strategic voting help their cause. Also near the elections, minor parties get more airtime.

      If National continue to sink then some of those National floaters will probably float NZ First’s way.

    • woodart 5.7

      judith saves the day…hahahaha. “here, let me steer the titanic for a bit”

    • Gabby 5.8

      Hopefully Judee has the solution to the housng crisis at her talontips.

      • patricia bremner 5.8.1

        Yes her husband might help lol lol Like Orivida or the Swamp Kauri. Swamp something that’s for sure. “James James Hold the ladder steady! Michell’s got the bag! What do you mean half of them want a Southern boat?”

    • Tricledrown 5.9

      No friends National where are they going to find a coalition partner. Winston was their only lifeline now National continue to try and destroy their only viable partner.

      • cleangreen 5.9.1

        True trickedrown;

        The competition now begins between National in midterm and labour offing Winston a ‘safe seat’ as national did for David Seymour in Epsom.

        We need to look at the political scene as being ‘just a big game’ not making common real as we thought.

    • Bearded Git 5.10

      If this trend continues plenty of room for greener labour people to tactically vite Green to be assured of partner and power

    • Rae 5.11

      If you are prepared to accept such a tainted and arrogant person as Collins “I don’t like swamps” Collins then it probably says as much about you as it does her

    • Jenny - How to get there? 5.12

      Judith Collins New Zealand’s version of Donald Trump?

      As unlikely as it may seem now, Judith Collins may one day be PM.

      From this poll it looks like Winston Peters’ red neck base are looking for a new home

      All Collins has to do to become leader of her party, (and potential PM), is to whip up racist hysteria about illegal immigrants and Maori.

      How will the Liberal Left in this country respond?

      Play up to the racist anti-immigrant anti-Maori gallery?

      Or mount a vigorous anti-racist counter attack?

      • solkta 5.12.1

        Don Brash couldn’t make it via Maori-bashing and that was with the seabed and foreshore stuff going on. People have moved on a lot since then and this shows in things like the number of Pakeha learning and wanting to learn Te Reo Maori. Most people don’t actually have a problem with immigrants even though they may have concerns about infrastructure coping with the numbers. While there is clearly a minority who respond to Winston’s strategic racism, they do not a majority make.

        I think in this scenario you would get the full on fight that you so obvious crave. I think Marama would do really well in this context and the Green vote would likely increase. National would suck a lot of vote off Winston putting NZF out of Parliament, but they would also lose some vote. End result, Labour/Green government.

        I think Collins and National Party strategists would also think that such a strategy would fail. National has been successful because they have been able to maintain a broad appeal. It is also unlikely that Collins would be able to get anti-immigration policy past her colleagues. They are the pro-immigration party remember.

      • james 5.12.2

        “How will the Liberal Left in this country respond?”

        Prob do another “chineese sounding names” effort like last time.

  6. Hooch 6

    So based on this, Nationals attempts to wipe out nz first and the greens next election will result in labour governing alone. Classic.

    • Labour governing alone?

      Great idea

      • Bearded Git 6.1.1

        Labour really needs to be sure of a support partner…this is the reason the Nats are out of power

        • cleangreen

          yes Beaded Git;

          Labour will obviously offer a ‘safe seat’ to their preferred support partner, like national did many times over their checkered history. David Seymour/ACT is the latest example.

  7. McFlock 7

    Way early yet, but the trends seem interesting.

    There will be some ructions after Soimon gets stabbed, though. Caucus meeting tomorrow, isn’t it? 👿

    • ianmac 7.1

      Jamie-Lee reckoned that Simon had been with-holding their own poll results from caucus. Wonder why?
      Roosting vultures are getting clucky.

    • patricia bremner 7.2

      JLR had a good sleep. Job just about done.

  8. ankerawsharkP 8

    Wow this is very good news.

    Very unfortunate for Simonl

    James attempt to spin this positively is laughable though

  9. Reality 9

    It seems people are astute enough to know that despite some Kiwibuild difficulties, at least the Government is recognising the housing shortage and is working hard to rectify that. Along with all the other neglected issues over nine years.

    NZ is very fortunate to have Jacinda Ardern as our PM. She has never become arrogant and smug and is very aware there is much to be done.

  10. Ad 10

    We have an awesome Prime Minister.

    Great start to the year.

    • patricia bremner 10.1

      We absolutely do Ad. PM Ardern is amazing.
      The Opposition including “Mouth pieces” have tried to wear her down in every way possible, and Tracey’s comment was to let us know that Dirty Politics was alive and well. The PM is so far above the nasties, and the polls confirm this.

    • cleangreen 10.2

      True that is Ad.

  11. Fireblade 11

    8 February 2019

    Bridges is far better than I first thought.
    I was harsh on the man, to begin with, but he’s got some serious smarts and is working to a plan.

    2020 is looking like a National win, to be honest.

    • Robert Guyton 11.1

      That BM! Finger on the pulse.

      • Charlie 11.1.1

        The only thing BM has his finger on his is dick, and he finds that and his balls hard to find. BM is a Farrarbog troll. His agenda is to infiltrate the Standard and oppose all pro coalition opinion vigorously. He and David F will be slutted as these results.

        • Muttonbird

          BM is a gadfly. An annoyance to everyone, everywhere.

          • Charlie

            Titi you are too generous, gadfly’s are interesting, BM is more a headless turd.

            • In Vino

              I am sure BM will soon reply to justify his outburst of 8 Feb. Unless he is like so many other Rightie trolls who run for the hills when they know the thread is lost. Please don’t discourage him with unnecessarily harsh language!

            • Tricledrown

              Boringly Monotonous wind up Troll. The Dogmatic version like Simple Simon barks at cars continuously.

          • cleangreen

            Yes Muttonbird

            BM is a twat. – like a pimple on a dickie.

  12. R.P Mcmurphy 12

    time has passed the nationals party by. they are like every other privileged elite who were not able to see the end of the ancien regime. the world has turned.

    • Observer Tokoroa 12.1

      Hi R.P Mcmurphy

      ” time has passed the Nationals by ”

      You are so right ! They never came up with anything useful. Just slumped in their mysterious strange ways.

      As far as the Public voting for National – they are not going to Vote for a Pm who fiddles with little girls Hair – and perceivably get his Jollies. He Stinks – does that Rat.

      Even His wife has to tug him away for harassing young waitresses in the local Cafe. He has only one thing on his mind. Filth. National adore that smelly evil man.

      As you imply – The Public want affordable Housing and affordable Rentals. National gave them neither. Although Key built one house in 2017.

      So while John Key was sexing up on Kids, he and his mate Bill English were starving workers and their Families. Via Low low Wages. They Hated the honest workers. Both claimed there was no housing Crisis. For Crying out loud !

      Judith Collins is a selfish one family issue. Totally Selfish. A trouble maker and dishonest.

      Simon is a “hey Look at me man”. Achieves nothing. years after years. Tries to smash Jacinda – and looks a Fool. A non achiever.

      National has no Future.

    • cleangreen 12.2

      RP Mcmurphy 100%

      It sends images of this;

      The ‘rotting carcass of the old ‘once proud National Party’ is now wriggling with worms’ turning and trying to escape.

  13. The knives are being sharpened as we speak within National however a logical successor for the long term does not stand out IMHO.

  14. Cinny 14

    Miss 14 watched the poll results with me…… both of us burst out laughing.

    • patricia bremner 14.1

      Well Cinny and Miss 14, I have been called “Biased in la la land”, but I’m hap hap happy today. So I’m laughing too.
      Jacinda Ardern and team you rock!!. Go Labour and the Coalition!!

  15. Andre 15

    Keep the faith, Nats.

    Just remember Auntie Helen had her low points in polling, but then she became Prime Minister (and a highly respected one) for nine years. Slimin’ can do it too!

    Or not.

    • Correct Simon is doing his Apprenticeship and in 7 or 10 years time could well be the PM of NZ.

    • Tricledrown 15.2

      National don’t like loosers never have Bridges is running out of time.

      • cleangreen 15.2.1

        Tricledrown 100%

        absolutely as Bridges is a shallow man seen by all.

        NZ hates a looser.

        He should have bent towards some regional rail freight and passenger services and other infrastructure policies to shore up his NZ wide base rather than just going on his talk fest .

        He did say he was keen to have an “enduring’ relationship wit the green party’ didn’t he?

  16. Robert Guyton 16

    James…Pucky…Keeping Stock…Pete George… do you have people you can be with?
    Feel our love.

    • The National Party Trolls will be crying into their pillows tonight.

    • Puckish Rogue 16.2

      With Queen Jude the first polling that high as preferred PM I’ll be feeling the love tonight all right don’t worry about that (I mean sure I’m by myself but it won’t lack for passion)

      The plan is coming along nicely, WinstonFirst is slowly being edged out of the picture no matter who wins so that’s a bonus and Jude the Magnificent will ride in on Nationals hour of need, take us to her bosom and rescue us all

  17. Pat 17

    before everyone gets too excited , remember this is a (rare) mid term poll…it means little….and the fact Bridges is not rated is hardly news

  18. Muttonbird 18

    Lol. While trying to find what preferred PM rating Andrew Little resigned on I stumbled upon this dozy from Hoskings:

    It’s not Little, it’s Labour

    Sums up Hoskings’ grip on politics. 🤣

  19. mary_a 19

    This result favouring Labour and Jacinda, combined with the spectre of JLR hovering in Parliament, as well as a lot of questions which will need answering, will be giving Simon nightmares. No sleep for him tonight, or several more nights I’d say!

    Oh dear, what a shame, never mind …

  20. Muttonbird 20

    At least we know why the Nats and their cronies have decided to Venezuela-ise every discussion about the government.

    They’re looking very, very desperate.

    • ankerawsharkP 20.1

      Yes the Venezulian line. That’s all working out well isn’t it! Keep going Simon and National. Your digging yourself into a ditch. It won’t be a one horse race for leadership in National IMHO……….

      BTW 100 + Ad further up. Jacinda Ardern is a total heroine. We are lucky to have her.

  21. timeforacupoftea 21

    This was no surprise, Bridges was dead meat at all the barbecues over Xmas and nothing changed now halfway through February – except the dead meat is now composting nicely.

    • Muttonbird 21.1

      No, no, timeforacupoftory. The consensus among you deluded Nats was that Bridges was doing better and and it was all looking good for governing alone.

  22. David Mac 22

    Judith Collins would be a sensational Prime Minister said 3 people ever.

    Jacinda has Judith’s redeeming aspects in spades.

    John Key rose very quickly but they do currently appear to be bankrupt of charisma. I wonder if they’re about to enter their soul searching decade of election bridesmaids.

  23. JustMe 23

    Repeatedly Simon Bridges is coming across as weak.

    And so whilst National keep Bridges as being their leader then it’s unlikely National will ever be worthy of voting for at say next years’ general election.

    Still my advice to National and its MPs is to please keep Bridges as YOUR Leader because every comment, statement etc that he makes reflects so badly against National that it’s a joke.

  24. Muttonbird 24

    Wasn’t 47% the number Bridges thought he’d need to govern alone? Ironic that Labour have hit that just days after he said it. 😁

    • David Mac 24.1

      He’s not out of the running, he could ring Jacinda and say “We want to buy your job.”

      • Charlie 24.1.1

        And probably that would be the first time Jacinda utters a public profanity, fuck off Simon we are not forsale.

      • mary_a 24.1.2

        @ David Mac (24.1) … love it 🙂 In desperation, anything could be on the cards from Simon Britches.

    • ankerawsharkP 24.2

      Muttonbird, yes that’s right. 47% Simon’s figure. Oh dear, its all going wrong. Never mind

  25. Dennis Frank 25

    Farrar carefully avoids mentioning the Nat drop (what elephant? where?):
    “I understand the poll wasn’t done last week but is mainly from January. It is curious they waited so long to release it, if that is the case. January was of course when the PM had huge attention at Davos and issues such as the Kiwibuild meltdown had not really gone full frontal. Governments often get a bump in January as it is the quiet season and there is no Parliament. So I’ll be more interested in the next poll.”

    I checked the Reid poll page and it does not specify the dates of the actual polling. Extremely unprofessional of them!!

    • Muttonbird 25.1

      Farrar also fails to mention the scaremongering he and the Nats and the property investor community have been indulging in having the opposite effect from what they intended.

      The closer Labour get to announcing a CGT, the higher they go. Seems New Zealand is finally mature enough to begin taxing capital.

      • Dennis Frank 25.1.1

        Yes, good point. If I were them, I’d wait for the next poll. If still ahead, I’d do the CGT announcement pronto, so there’s plenty of time for the country to adapt before the poll after that…

      • patricia bremner 25.1.2

        Yes Muttonbird. That “Oneroof” crowd. Every Advertorial had Gnat’s signs all over.

    • Craig H 25.2

      Newshub has the dates – 24/1 to 2/2.

  26. Kat 26

    National won’t be calling for a “snap election” any time soon then. The truth is they have actually gone up from the last recent Colmar Brunton poll result which had National at 46% which was in reality 38%……the one Wayne said was “pubic” and “professional'”.

    Be very wary of polls.

  27. Stuart Munro 27

    There are two obvious moves the left must make in response to a poll like this. The first a running a sweepstake on when the metaphorical knife will dice Simon’s giblets. The next is a sweepstake on where the turning point will be on the Gnat’s precipitous descent – the line from down to 41 still looks fairly steep, and the last year has not shown the Gnats moving past the first stage of grief – denial. They might level out at 35, but the line under their rock bottom support used to be 23 – plumbed by Bill English with a strong contribution from the bogeywoman. Rebuilding support is a hard task, and the thickets of deadwood aren’t going to do it for them.

  28. ScottGN 28

    You’d have to think that this poll leaves National’s primary strategy of driving NZFirst and the Greens below 5% and governing alone on about 47% at the next election dead in the water.
    If anything it gives those smaller parties an excellent opportunity to harvestwhat seem still to be plentiful votes at the edges of National. “Vote for us to keep Labour honest!” National could be heading to a very dark place for the next few years.

  29. David Mac 29

    I wonder if Shane’s mission has hurt the NZ First vote. I don’t think their core vote would be happy with his touring the country looking for things to throw cash at while so many of their friends struggle to pay for their power. When launched it appeared to have value as an activity incubator but gee, is it delivering?

    Just as with Kiwibuild, making adjustments mid journey are not signals of failure, with big jobs, they’re crucial.

  30. Fireblade 30

    Newshub are really taking the piss.

    National plunges to worst result in over a decade.

  31. David Mac 31

    In the population sparse Far North there is a company called Advance Homes. Under a big roof, last year they built and then delivered over 50 new homes, 1 a week, their waiting list stretches out before them.

    I think Shane’s money should be meshing in with that kind of activity, attach a Polytech arm.

    Planting trees that will mature in 30 years is well and good. Right now we need lots of viable paths to 100k incomes. Winston’s voters want to see their loved ones prospering. Clambering around a mountain-side with a knapsack of seedlings, it’s not a career.

    • Sacha 32.1

      Hardly a happy family: “At the end of last year, Bridges’ own MPs were talking to Newshub on background about the likelihood of the leader being rolled.”

    • Muttonbird 33.1

      That’s got to hurt. You do all that work and think you’re doing ok and yet the public prefer a corrupt cow over you.

    • David Mac 33.2

      If I was forced to sail a 30ft yacht up to Fiji with either Simon or Judith I’d pick judith but I’d rather swim.

      Like Jacinda, Judith is never far from having a laugh, we like that in people. Has anyone ever heard Simon Bridges’ genuinely laugh? I can’t recall the occasion. He sniggers in sarcasm and chortles at the misfortune of others, but a genuine LOL, nope, I’m coming up blank.

  32. Liberal Realist 34

    Hmm wonder if the Nats will try and parachute the next John Key(?) in this election cycle. It’s a long bow, but who knows? The new teale thingy of Tava doesn’t have legs methinks. Collins or Mitchell, too many skeletons!! Who else is there?

    I must say, for only a single poll, the tears of the tory mass over at Stuff are delicious!

    • Drowsy M. Kram 34.1

      Thanks for posting the link. I did laugh at this comment under that Stuff news item:

      Interview with National MP:

      “Do you support Simon Bridges?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader”.

      “Are you enjoying the summer weather?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader.”

      “Will the All Blacks win the World Cup?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader.”

      “Are you just repeating like a robot, which makes you look totally insincere?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader.”

    • Kat 35.1

      Audrey, that poor old National poodle, will be having kittens you can be assured. Given that National/Act in the current MMP environment represent the entire opposition this result is equivalent to Labour being on 30% or much lower. When the average “public” poll gets below 35% for National then is when Collins will make her move. May the blood run.

    • Craig H 35.2

      Thank the Lord, I was concerned!

    • newsense 35.3

      Wait for the commentariat to agree with Matthew and call her an experienced journalist. Imagine the howls of derision which would have greeted a Labour leader

  33. AB 36

    National disturbingly high at 41% when they represent a retrograde ideology that should have been dead and buried long ago.
    It means another National government is inevitable at some point in the future, which is like having a little bit of sick in your mouth permanently.

    • Tony Veitch [not etc.] 36.1

      I don’t agree, AB – another Nat government is NOT inevitable at some point in the future.

      There has been a subtle (and sometimes not so subtle) shift in NZ politics. Most people are well aware that neoliberalism is in its death throes and that the Nats only achieved a surplus by poor management of the sort of services we all depend on – like education, health and welfare and the environment.

      I expect the trend in Nat poll figures to continue to drop, maybe even as low as the mid twenties, as the ‘kindness’ of the Coalition government seeps into the consciousness of people.

      While the Labour led coalition is nowhere radical enough – either for my expectations or for what is necessary to do something meaningful about climate change, their softer face of government is having an impact.

      Couple that with the referendum on cannabis at the same time as the next election, which will bring out the young people (for better or worse) and the Coalition government (in various forms) will bolt in.

  34. alwyn 37

    I guess the left will very shortly have to drop the “no mates” label they have been using about National.
    On this poll New Zealand First is dead. As the Green Party never do as well at the election as they do between elections they are dead also.
    I guess that the election is going to between “no mates” Labour and “no mates National, except perhaps for the single remaining member from the ACT Party.
    Oh well, as has happened at every MMP Government the main party in the coalition will have destroyed any other party that has gone into coalition with them.

    • Sacha 37.1

      You do not have much faith in our fellow voters. There will be more than two parties in the next parliament.

      • alwyn 37.1.1

        Well, you will note that I did suggest it would probably be 3.
        Do you think the real Green Party will get in? Or the Gareth Morgan will finance another go and succeed this time? I suppose it is possible but I don’t really expect it to happen.

        • Sacha

          Act’s poll result doubled to 4 out of 1000 this time, after all!

          • alwyn

            Did they really. Doubled! Incredible.
            As long as they continue to win Epsom they will remain in Parliament as you must surely be aware. The party vote is irrelevant.
            On the other hand I cannot see the Green Party ever winning an Electorate and the chances of New Zealand First doing so are very, very slim.

            • Sacha

              One MP is not much of a partner to crow about.

              • alwyn

                “One MP is not much of a partner to crow about”.
                Of course not. On the other hand it is certainly more than the zero members that Winston First and the Water melons will have after the 2020 election, isn’t it?
                Should I have put /sarc/ or something after the first line which starts “Did they really”?

        • You_Fool

          Yes, I think the real Green Party will continue to be in parliament, and probably in government proper next time

    • Muttonbird 37.2

      Pardon me if I don’t take your analysis seriously. You’ve been spreading lies about the government recently and don’t even have the guts to retract.

      I suspect it’s to do with your state of mind on seeing that the best the National Party can do is boosting Labour.

      • alwyn 37.2.1

        “Spreading lies”?
        Don’t be silly you diesel soaked seagull.
        I have merely been telling the truth about the Government. I realise you may not like it but I fail to see that I have any obligation to support your fantasies about them.
        You should read my comments with an open mind. Then you will understand what the Bible says in John 8:32.
        “And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free”.

        • Muttonbird

          You should read alwyn 5:92

          Six houses…are being dumped onto the open market.

          You may have to repent, alwyn. God doesn’t like a liar.

          • alwyn

            My description seems to be quite accurate.
            Did anyone who had registered for the Kiwibuild program want to buy any of those houses? NO. Did a Land agent then have to try and get rid of them to other people who had never even registered? YES.
            That definitely sounds like dumping properties to me.

            • Muttonbird

              Liar. You said they were “dumped onto the open market”. This would be of great concern were it true but it isn’t true. is it?

              And again, if you read the article you would have found that people who registered were interested in those houses but were apparently unable to access the required finance.

              • alwyn

                That is mostly because the price for them was a lot higher than they could afford, and a lot higher than Phil Twyford had said they would be.
                Seems quite ridiculous, and reprehensible, that they bought properties that a developer had built without even finding out whether anyone wanted them doesn’t it?
                Pretty much par for the course for that idiot Minister though.

                • Muttonbird

                  Another lie. Kiwibuild properties were always $650K for three bedrooms.

                  • alwyn

                    Absolute rubbish
                    “Labour’s KiwiBuild programme will build 100,000 high quality, affordable homes over 10 years, with 50% of them in Auckland. Standalone houses in Auckland will cost $500,000 to $600,000, with apartments and townhouses under $500,000. Outside Auckland, houses will range from $300,000 to $500,000.”

                    That was their announced policy. Even in Auckland they were never conceived as costing $650,000.
                    Surely you owe us an apology for that lie of yours?
                    After all “God doesn’t like a liar” as someone said just a little above here.

                    • Muttonbird

                      Meh. 2017 election policy.

                      It’s 2019 now, two years on under the house price inflation caused by the previous government’s addiction to cheap foreign labour and to corrupt foreign capital.

                      However I will admit I got that 2017 figure wrong. Now how about that “open market” statement of yours?

    • Kat 37.3

      Except what you fail to realise Alwyn is Labour went into coalition with NZ First. Shall leave you to ponder that one.

      • alwyn 37.3.1

        That is the reason I made the comment.
        Shall I explain it further?
        New Zealand First, the minor party went into coalition with Labour, the major party.
        New Zealand First are now on 2.9%, which is far below the number they need to survive.
        ergo. New Zealand First, after going into coalition with Labour has been destroyed.
        What don’t you understand about that?

        • marty mars

          Lol that poll is a classic eh – there must be some restless sleepers tonight and they’re all gnats. So funny.

          • alwyn

            Not being a member of any party it certainly isn’t going to spoil my sleep.
            I’ll bet Winston and the Water melons will be a bit uncomfortable though.
            I think we will be better of when both those parties are out of our Parliament.

            • In Vino

              A pity from your point of view that despite unfavourable circumstances, the Greens remain solidly above 5%. Logic would say that they should have sunk like NZ First. Got some wishful spin about that to condescendingly ‘explain’?

        • Kat

          They say explaining is losing but one last time, Alwyn, you think NZ First went into coalition with Labour, I said in fact Labour went into coalition with NZ First. There is a subtle but very important difference. Hint: policy.

          • alwyn

            Well, apart from the fact that Labour were so desperate that they gave total control to Tsar Winston and he has the exclusive ability to set policy I can’t really see what the “subtle” distinction is.
            Do you really think that their complete and utter surrender to Winston’s dictates is the mark of a competent and confident party?
            I cannot imagine Helen Clark ever agreeing to such a situation and Bill English certainly wasn’t having a bar of it.

            • Peter

              You can’t really see what the “subtle” distinction is? No surprise there as
              what you can see is that Labour gave total control to ‘Tsar’ Winston and him having the exclusive ability to set policy.

              Specsavers is in most major centres. Someone will help you find your way to one.

          • alwyn

            Oh, by the way.
            At the time Winston himself said that he was going into coalition with Labour. Ardern agreed with the statement.
            “Peters says NZ First will go into coalition with the Labour Party”
            I realise that you might remember it differently but I would tend to accept the statement made by the people involved at the time.

            • Sacha

              “Ardern agreed with the statement.”

              Funny how the linked article does not say that at all. But keep on grabbing for some consolation.

              • alwyn

                Well she didn’t contradict it in any way did she. She said that it was an “exciting day”.
                She was also surprised at the time and I believe she said she didn’t know what Winston was going to say. That certainly doesn’t sound like someone who had made the Coalition decision does it?
                No Winston picked her because he knew that he could totally control such a coalition.

                By the way, did you see this statement further done the article?
                “She also said that the full texts of the agreements with NZ First and the Greens would likely be released next week as well.”.
                We are still waiting aren’t we? Obviously Tsar Winston put his foot down and she was in no position to upset him.
                What was in those 36 or 38 or however many pages there were I wonder?

                • Sacha

                  I believe you have said enough for people to judge the honesty of your words.

                  • alwyn

                    You are being very sensible to stop now Sacha.
                    If you had kept on you would be just like Muttonbird who has never learnt that when you are in a hole you should stop digging.
                    I am pleased to see that you have accepted that what I have said is fully backed up with facts.

    • ScottGN 37.4

      I think both minor parties will be pretty happy, after all they both seem to have a core vote that’s within coo-ee of the threshold (unlike the previous government’s support partners who all languished well below 1%) and must be confident that there are votes to be gained when National’s constituent parts start to fracture as Bridges leads them to an even more comprehensive election defeat in 2020.

    • Bearded Git 37.5

      You forget there are some Labour voters with some green blood who realise Labour needs a partner and so will tactically vote Green.

      Labour especially needs to be sure of the Greens still being around in the 2023 election (2020 is looking all over)

  35. Tricledrown 38

    Funny Alwyn the only option National had. JLR hasn’t finished yet.

  36. Got home a few minutes ago and caught up with the poll. No point me re-hashing what this result means for Bridges, but I am very, very pleased about what it means for Iain Lees Galloway.

    Despite months of continual attacks, nothing the nasty party threw at ILG stuck. He’s still doing his job, his party are ahead in the polls and his leader has been proved right by showing him solidarity. Cool, ae?

    Oh, and Jami Lee Ross … that thing you’re feeling right now? The Germans probably have a word for it, but you can call it vindication if you want.

    Righto, must dash. I’ve got to pop over and check Trademe, see if anyone has a used Democracy Mum for sale. Price no object.

  37. mosa 40

    I think Tova must have wet herself given her excitement that Bridges is a dead man walking and that Judith is a viable contender even with 6% support.
    Not surprising who Media Works think should be Nationals leader and who they will supporting.
    Never mind Labour’s remarkable comeback from two years ago.
    Watch the media nasties promote Collins and turn on Bridges in the next few months.
    Parliament should be worth a watch this afternoon.

  38. Sanctuary 41

    Kate Hawkesby’s headline in today’s online edition of the house journal of the Auckland smug right sums up the right and white MSM response.

    “…Exactly what is it about Simon Bridges that voters don’t like..?” she plaintively wails. The focus from them has entirely been about fretting about National’s fall. I mean, how can all those angry middle aged white men who call ZB be wrong?

    The MSM right wing opinionistas have tried to build a narrative of a ramshackle government government lacking substance reeling under sucker punches from an effective and vigorous opposition. This has evaporated to dust, and the main reaction has been one of disbelief and cognitive dissonance. Matthew Hooton has been exposed (yet again) as being a full on bullshit artist, not that that will stop RNZ considering him to be a decent political commentator rather than just another seriously deluded right wing fantasist with nothing much to offer.

    In particular, the attacks on Ardern, that not so subtle loathing of her by aging white men on ZB who have tried to dismiss her as a “Cindy,” have blown up in their faces. It is almost as if they interview each other for their reckons.

    • Rae 41.1

      It’s not just ZB anymore, if you want real sore loser syndrome such as you describe, tune into that Magic Talk (the new iteration of Radio Live) 9 to noon and listen to Peter Williams. He has not done his reputation any favours. Thank god for actual 9 to noon on RNZ.
      Might just have to tune into Williams for a while though for entertainments sake

      • Rapunzel 41.1.1

        Likewise, he is truly unbearable with his lecturing so how he will respond to this will be interesting,
        Why his employers think that the make-up of their new set of announcers will gain a wide audience especially after the National Party failure of “personality” politics has gotten them nowhere.

    • patricia bremner 41.2

      Sanctuary… “as if they interview each other for their reckons” Just so desperate.

  39. Infused 42

    I guess it shows how dumb the average labour voter is.

    Nothing delivered. Flagship policies in tatters.

    The mental health policy with no actual policy being farmed out to even more working groups.

    So I can only conclude this is a vote to get rid of simon

    • Rae 42.1


    • patricia bremner 42.2

      Infused ….A reminder of 17 months worth.
      Outlining our big challenges.
      Climate Change & Inequality
      Te Maori view of the world.
      Dealing with Challenges (Mico Plasma Bovis)
      Doing the research on Wellbeing
      Mental health Committees
      Studying barriers to work and study for youth
      New inspectors finding employment breaches.
      Strengthening commercial law
      Slowing migration with targets
      Building state and private houses
      Helping the poor through winter
      Supporting young parents
      Raising wages
      Increasing the Health Budget
      Making teaching more attractive
      Working as a Coalition team
      Staying positive
      Representing us well overseas
      Having political courage in fraught overseas trade situations
      There will be more I have missed but Infused you are wrong.

  40. If you think Simon Bridges is doing it tough, spare a thought for his head of media. Poor old Guyon was stuck with interviewing the PM on National Radio and had to bluff his way through ten minutes of airtime without mentioning the poll result.

    Airplanes? Tick?
    IRD? Tick?
    Poll resu … Cross, cross, cross, let’s move on …

    • patricia bremner 43.1

      That is because he goes in with his instructions and he has to toe the RW party line lol

  41. swordfish 44

    Latest Newshub Reid Research Poll:
    (A few Stats)

    ————-2017 Election—-TV3 Poll (Feb 2019)—-Change

    Labour——— 36.9 —————- 47.5 ————— Up 10.6

    Green———- 6.3 ——————- 5.1 ————— Down 1.2

    Lab+Green— 43.2 —————– 52.6 ————— Up 9.4

    NZF————– 7.2 ——————- 2.9 —————- Down 4.3

    Coalition——- 50.4 —————– 55.5 ————— Up 5.1


    National——– 44.4 —————– 41.6 —————- Down 2.8

    ACT————— 0.5 ——————- 0.4 —————– Down 0.1

    Oppo———— 44.9 —————– 42.0 —————- Down 2.9

    (All other Parties)– 4.7 ————– 2.5 —————– Down 2.2


    ————————-2017 Election—-TV3 Poll (Feb 2019)—-Change

    Coalition leads Oppo by–– 5.5 ————— 13.5 ———— + 8.0

    Coalition leads Right by—– 5.2 ———-—- 12.4 ————– + 7.2


    Preferred PM / Leader Performance
    (Comparisons with same point into first terms of Clark & Key Govts)

    Ardern more popular than Clark at same point into first term / Bridges less popular than Shipley the year she was rolled by the charismatic English

    Feb 2001——————————————-Feb 2019

    Preferred PM

    Clark .. 30 .. (performing well 63) ———– Ardern .. 41.8 .. (performing well 68.3)

    Shipley 13 .. (performing well 54) ———- Bridges …. 5.0 … (performing well 21.9)

    ——————————————————– Collins …… 6.2


    Bridges less popular than Goff at the same stage:

    Feb 2010

    Key … 49.4 .. (performing well 73.5) …. Net …. plus 57.9

    Goff … 8.2 …. (performing well 33.7) ….. Net .. minus 12.9

    Compare with:

    Feb 2019

    Ardern… 41.8 .. (performing well 68.3) …. Net …. plus 51.5

    Bridges … 5.0 … (performing well 21.9) …. Net .. minus 28.9

    • patricia bremner 44.1

      Thanks Swordfish.

      • Cinny 44.1.1

        +1 Love your work Swordfish

        Those stats were very interesting, could simon be the lowest polling nat leader NZ has ever seen?

        • swordfish

          He’s beginning to rival Jim McLay’s woeful ratings … the least popular Nat & Oppo leader since regular polling commenced in 1969.

          (Clark & Bolger both went very low in the Preferred PMs … but they also soared into the 20s during their respective stints as Oppo leader … so their averages were far higher than McLay’s).

          Paradoxically, the Nats enjoyed a significant bump in support when McLay toppled Muldoon, & they held onto (and even consolidated) that lift … even while McLay continued to languish in the Preferred PMs, falling towards low single digits.

          Goff had been the second least popular Oppo leader … but Bridges is now in the process of toppling him from that coveted position.

      • swordfish 44.1.2

        Cheers, patricia.

    • mosa 44.2

      Good work as always Swordfish.
      Interesting analysis.

    • Pat 44.3

      im sorry but i’ll have to call the inaccuracy…..”the charismatic English”?

  42. Dennis Frank 45

    Herald says the polling was Jan 24 – Feb 2: “Some of the political events that occurred over shortly before or over the polling period included Ardern’s trip to London, Davos and Brussels; Bridges’ announcement that National would index tax-rate thresholds to inflation; an acknowledgement by the Government that Kiwibuild would fall well short of its short term target; ex-National MP Jami-Lee Ross re-entering public life and Sarah Dowie being named as the ex-lover who sent him a text message saying “you deserve to die” which is being investigated by police.”

    So nothing in the news explains the poll result which seems caused by a lag effect from last year, and a reflective mood over the holiday period. Labour will be complacent.

    Centrists are endorsing the direction of the coalition, and registering their disapproval of National’s failure to produce policy responses to our changing world. Labour folk won’t realise this. They will interpret it as approving their inability to produce results. If that persists into winter, Labour will drop in polling then.

    Political analysis continues to be banal. That’s due to the ongoing failure to measure the centrist vote. You dorks out there, start accepting that a third of the electorate in western countries are now non-binary. Pull finger! You can do it, you just need to start trying! Put 30 years of abysmal failure to be honest behind you! Moral corruption need not be terminal!

    • KJT 45.1

      Still indulging your ‘centrist’ fantasy.

      Greens lost votes to Labour, when Labour starting promising more of the Greens, “left wing” policies.
      Not “centrist” policies.

      The “centrist” party, Dunne and co, got done like a dinner, once voters got a good look at them.

      • Dennis Frank 45.1.1

        But your lack of comprehension of centrists isn’t the point. Nobody ever said they think the same. That’s because they don’t. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?

        Leftist green voters shifting between the GP and Labour aren’t centrists. Centrists are voters who do not self-identify with either left or right. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?

        Dunne’s centrists are in the dust-bin of history. Nobody here is going to be impressed by your delusional attempt to make them seem relevant in 2019. The only thing that matters next election is how all parties market themselves to centrists. We will decide the election result on that basis – as we usually do.

        • KJT


          Elections in New Zealand are decided by a relatively small group of swing voters.

          To claim they are in the centre is just wishful thinking.

          In fact they appear to be a group which is swayed by whatever extremist issue the media decide to highlight.
          Hence the dog whistling “tough on crime” and other appeals to mindless “Journalists”.

          • Dennis Frank

            You really believe swing-voters aren’t centrist? I’ve never seen anyone advocate that crazy notion before. Good luck with being first cab off the rank!

            • KJT

              National are under no such illusion.

              They spend a fortune on focus groups, to find out what will get potential swing voters to swing.

              Shows they are more likely to be evidence denying extremists, like family first, than the “moderates” you think.

              • Dennis Frank

                Maybe so, but I expect the `gigo’ formula to apply to the design of such groups. Garbage in produces garbage out. Depend who selects the participant, on what basis, but primarily on the questions asked.

                Family First are ultraconservative, therefore more likely to binary than you even. Most conservatives have always been rightists – remember Winston was one. Some Labour voter probably belong to FF but I suspect they would be a small minority.

  43. Simon Louisson 46

    Paula Benefit says poll shows Nats doing “pretty well”
    – probably as well as Nats did with their “pretty legal” Eminem rip-off

    • Dennis Frank 46.1

      But she’s not wrong if her comment was directed at the poll rating instead of the strategic implication. Does anyone really expect a Nat/Lab politician to factor in deep context? Worry that they have dropped into the thirties can be put aside. Standard positive spin on bad news using glass-half-full thinking…

      • Kat 46.1.1

        The Nats were already in the 30’s, if this poll is accurate they have actually gone up. My thoughts are the numbers require more scrutiny and if anything I put Labour ahead of National primarily on the excellent performance of Jacinda Ardern. The policy wonks may have other theory of course, and current policy if successful will certainly have an effect with ex National voters that Labour is now obviously starting to pick up.

        My prediction is National is in for a thumping at the next election regardless whether Bridges, Collins or any other of the current crop is leader.

        • Dennis Frank

          Only on internal party polling, which everyone else doesn’t take seriously. I don’t discount the charisma factor, and her performance has been adept some of the time, but my take is that voters are endorsing the coalition’s trajectory, and admonishing National for failing to provide an adaptive response – particularly on climate change. I agree Nat prospects look dire.

          • Robert Guyton

            Todd Muller’s tanking. Rod Oram’s chiding the poor sap.

            • Dennis Frank

              Oram’s critique was quite savage, eh? Well perhaps incisive is a better way of putting it. Cutting! Rightly so – I thought he did an excellent job. Made toddy seem lukewarm, when he’s trying ever so hard to be hot…

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      The appointment of Grant Robertson as Vice-Chancellor of Otago University has raised hackles – and questions – among academics.  Robertson’s credentials for the job is one issue.  The appointment process is another.  University of Auckland economics professor Rob MacCulloch has posted these three articles in the past few days ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 hours ago
  • Govt's Budget 'just like a household,' says Willis
    TL;DR: Flying in the face of comments from a ratings agency and a mountain of demand for a new long-term sovereign bond issued yesterday, Finance Minister Nicola Willis has again characterised the Government’s finances as too fragile to borrow in its own right to solve Aotearoa-NZ’s infrastructure deficits. She also ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    9 hours ago
  • Untold back-stories: the little things media don't tell us but which are nevertheless pertinent
    ..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.In an article entitled "School donations continue to yield millions of dollars for wealthier schools" on RNZ's website on 19 February, Data journalist Farah Hancock reported on the fees ("donations") that (some) schools were ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    10 hours ago
  • Untold back-stories: the little things media don't tell us but which are nevertheless pertinent
    ..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.In an article entitled "School donations continue to yield millions of dollars for wealthier schools" on RNZ's website on 19 February, Data journalist Farah Hancock reported on the fees ("donations") that (some) schools were ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    10 hours ago
  • Efeso Collins – Gone Too Soon.
    My wife’s breathing was heavy beside me as I woke this morning, still dark. Yesterday, and it’s awful news, came crashing into my head and I lay there quietly crying.Thinking of Efeso’s family and loved ones. Of so many people who knew him and were devastated by the shocking news. ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    13 hours ago
  • Efeso Collins spoke in Parliament only yesterday on bill which will regulate social workers (and vot...
    Buzz from the Beehive Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and other party leaders have been paying tribute to Green MP Fa’anānā Efeso Collins, who collapsed and died during a ChildFund charity run in central Auckland this morning, . The event, near Britomart, was to support local communities in the Pacific. Collins, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago
  • This is corrupt
    Earlier in the month, a panel of "independent" experts in Wellington produced recommendations for the future of housing in the city, and they were a bit shit, opposing intensification and protecting the property values of existing homeowners. Its since emerged that they engaged in some pretty motivated reasoning on the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Efeso Collins
    God, life can be cruel sometimes can’t it?If only everyone was like him. He was so very warm, so very generous, so very considerate, so very decent. Plenty of people have those qualities but I can think of hardly anyone I've met who had them as richly as he did.Let me ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER:  Is applying “tough love” to a “fragile” nation the right answer?
      The Question Christopher Luxon Needs To Ask –  And Answer:  How was it possible for a nation of barely three million citizens to create and maintain an infrastructure that functioned, schools and universities that turned out well-educated and enterprising citizens, a health system that kept its people healthy, and a ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • DON BRASH: Is an independent foreign policy really feasible?
    Don Brash writes – A week or so ago, Helen Clark and I argued that New Zealand would be nuts to abandon the independent foreign policy which has been a characteristic of New Zealand life for most of the last 40 years, a policy which has seen us ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
    Ratepayers might well ask why they are subsidising people who peddle the lie that it is possible to be born in the wrong body and people can change sex. The preponderance of events advertising as ‘queer’ is a gender ideology red flag. Yvonne Van Dongen writes –  It ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • S&P slams new Govt's council finance vacuum
    Wellington Water workers attempt to resolve a burst water main. Councils are facing continuing uncertainty over how to pay to repair and expand infrastructure. The Wellington Regional Council was one of those downgraded. File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the outlooks for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Grant Robertson Resigns.
    Yesterday the man that I admire most in NZ politics called time.Around the middle of yesterday news began to filter out. People were posting unconfirmed reports that Grant Robertson was taking a new role as Vice-Chancellor at Otago Uni. Within an hour it became clear that he was indeed retiring ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Auckland’s City Rail Link will fail immediately… in the best possible way
    This post was originally published on Linked In by Nicolas Reid. It is republished here with permission. Here’s the thing: the City Rail Link is almost certainly going to be overcapacity from day one, with crowding on the trains at peak times. In the simple terms of popular transport ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    2 days ago
  • You can’t always get what you want
    Grant Robertson is leaving Parliament for two new careers, having been frustrated and blocked from achieving some of his biggest political ambitions. So, he is returning to Dunedin, and, unusually for a former finance minister, with seemingly no ambitions to enter the business world. Instead, he will become Vice Chancellor ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • At a glance – Was Greenland really green in the past?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    2 days ago
  • Sharp-elbowed and loving it
    It doesn't seem to take a lot to persuade someone who feels they work their guts out that in fact no one is working as hard as me.It doesn't seem to take a lot to persuade someone who knows somebody taking the welfare system for a ride that they’re all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Sharp-elbowed and loving it
    It doesn't seem to take a lot to persuade someone who feels they work their guts out that in fact no one is working as hard as me.It doesn't seem to take a lot to persuade someone who knows somebody taking the welfare system for a ride that they’re all ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Then why did she do it?
    Earlier in the month, Cancer Minister Casey Costello was caught lying to the media about whether or not she had requested advice on cutting tobacco excise tax to benefit the cancer industry. She repeated her lies in Parliament. But today, she stood up and pretended to apologise for "causing confusion" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Is Applying “Tough Love” To A “Fragile” Nation The Right Answer?
    The Question Christopher Luxon Needs To Ask –  And Answer: How was it possible for a nation of barely three million citizens to create and maintain an infrastructure that functioned, schools and universities that turned out well-educated and enterprising citizens, a health system that kept its people healthy, and a workforce ...
    2 days ago
  • The limits to realism.
    Realism is a school of thought in the field of international relations (IR). It provides a theoretical framework for analysing the behaviour of States in the world political system. Like other theories (which in the IR literature include idealism, liberalism, … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 days ago
  • UNSOCIAL MEDIA – Following the Trolls
    From TODAY FM archives — Wilhelmina Shrimpton and Simon Morrow take a deep dive into trolling and cyberbullying. From the high profile to the general public, Kiwis across all walks of life are being targeted, and some are paying the ultimate price. So what drives us to troll, who is ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    2 days ago
  • Govt prescribes stiff medicine for some beneficiaries while easing access to drugs containing pseudo...
    Buzz from the Beehive One of two new announcements on the government’s official website  – given plenty of publicity by the mainstream media over the past 24 hours – has been pitched as the first steps in a “reset” of the welfare system.  Stiff medicine for beneficiaries, in effect. The ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • We’re not as fragile or as lazy as Luxon says
    Luxon says his government is one that is “prepared to make those hard decisions”. File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has adopted the language of Ruth Richardson before her 1991 ‘Mother of All Budgets’ in arguing for benefit sanctions to bolster the Government finances, which ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Talking over the Silence.
    Please open the doorNothing is different, we've been here beforePacing these hallsTrying to talk over the silenceIf I was to describe what I do, or at least the way it sometimes feels, then talking over the silence wouldn’t be a bad way to do so.Not that there aren’t other voices ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: National needs to go further
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – In today’s State of the Nation speech Christopher Luxon talked repeatedly about getting young people off welfare. It seems that National has devised a traffic light system which will use increasing levels of sanctions – welfare deductions – when beneficiaries fail to meet their ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National spreading panic about the economy
    It is a political strategy as old as time. Scare the public with tales of disaster and stampede them into supporting your ideological agenda because they believe There Is No Alternative. Yet, if the NZ economy truly is as “fragile” as PM Christopher Luxon says it is… Then how come ...
    3 days ago
  • The promise of passive house design
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah Wesseler Imagine a home so efficient that it could be heated with a hair dryer. That’s the promise of a passive house, a design standard that’s becoming increasingly popular in the architecture community for its benefits to occupants and the climate. ...
    3 days ago
  • Deep in the Uncanny Valley of AI
    Hi,Before we get started, some very big fun Webworm news. I am launching a new journalism fund called Big Worm Farm!A really great thing that’s happened with Webworm over the last four years is that it’s grown. That’s great for a few reasons.Firstly — it means the work here gets ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • Introducing: Big Worm Farm
    Hi,I’m excited to tell you about Big Worm Farm.Put simply, the main aim of Big Worm Farm is to support investigative journalists from around the world to be able to devote dedicated time to research and report on a specific story, to be published on Webworm.The stories will capture the ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • Why Massey is broke
    The Tertiary Education Commission has named the two universities it says are at high risk financially. They are Massey and Victoria. The Commission appeared before Parliament’s Education Select Committee yesterday and offered a revealing and rare insight into the complex world of university economics. Its Briefing to the Incoming Minister ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • You keep Luxin' when you oughta be thruthin'
    Christopher Luxon’s campaign to win last year's election continued yesterday with a speech.Channelling possibly Bruce Willis in Die Hard, he was all, I'm not going to dress it up, I'm going to level with you guys: the state of the nation is fragile.The thing he’s maybe missing is that it ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The PM spoke of the need for tough choices – and then opted to beat a retreat when gays and Gaza a...
    Buzz from the Beehive The PM’s State of the Nation speech – according to a Newshub headline – was a ‘buffet of buzzwords’ and full of ‘nonsense’. Fair to say, the quoted words were attributed to Opposition politicians, who were unlikely to say the speech was visionary and inspiring: PM ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Keynesian Wisdom.
    When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    3 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON: Puffing policy
    Public policy towards tobacco consumption remains politically sensitive. Brian Easton writes – In 1983, a young researcher was told by a medium-level Treasury official that Treasury policy was to abandon excise duties on tobacco. The senior Treasury economist that I consulted, famed for his commonsense, snorted ‘we ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Is 2.8% per year population growth too much?
    TL;DR: The Government is reviewing migration settings that produced 2.8% population growth last year and is looking at a longer-term strategy of matching population growth to the ‘absorbtive capacity’ of Aotearoa-NZ’s infrastructure.Our population grew last year at its fastest rate since 1947, when large numbers of troops returning from World ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Tough Choices & Tough Love.
    I've been trying to hurt youI've been holding you tightI've been learning to love youAm I doing it right?How are you still breathingWith my hands all over your heart?How do we start healingIf we can't keep out the dark?Yesterday the Prime Minister delivered his State of the Nation, for no ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Will the 2024 RLTP be yet another debacle?
    A couple of years ago, Auckland Council and Auckland Transport found themselves in court over the 2021 Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP). A non-profit alliance for transport decarbonisation, All Aboard Aotearoa, argued that among other factors, the RLTP was unlawful because it failed to give effect to the 2021 Government ...
    4 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #07
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, Feb 11, 2024 thru Sat, Feb 17, 2024. Story of the week Based on mission alignment, our Story of the Week is certainly Can we be inoculated against climate ...
    4 days ago
  • Immigration Issues.
    Help is comingI heard a whisperWhite caps turningThe breath of summerA distant drummingAnd liar birds callingEscape the anguish of our pastAnd prayOne of the major challenges of the the 21st century will be the mass migration of human beings around our globe.Some seeking economic opportunities, others fleeing repressive regimes, war ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Trust us, we know what we’re doing
    The best trick the National Party ever pulled was to fabricate their reputation as the responsible ones.This would be the National Party that denied us the New Zealand Superannuation Scheme that—Brian Gaynor wrote back in 2007would be worth more than $240 billion today and would have transformed the New Zealand ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • The Left’s Timidity
    It is not just Karl Marx – even the most enthusiastic supporters of the market economy (not least Adam Smith) will concede that its normal operation inevitably leads to a concentration of wealth in relatively few hands. Some, at least, of these enthusiasts will accept that such a concentration is ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    5 days ago
  • OLIVER HARTWICH: Absurd – NZ courts can now decide on climate change
    Oliver Hartwich writes – The World Justice Project ranks New Zealand 7th out of 142 countries on its ‘Rule of Law Index’, narrowly ahead of Australia’s 13th place. However, Australia still has hope – if only because of a recent decision by the Supreme Court of New Zealand. The ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Still waiting on that turnaround
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday: Week in review, quiz style2. Shane Jones’ demeanour in mocking and deriding climate activists can be observed in what other realm of human behaviour?a. Gleeful little boys pulling wings off fliesb. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Can we be inoculated against climate misinformation? Yes – if we prebunk rather than debunk
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article written by Christian Turney, University of Technology Sydney and Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge and first published on February 14, 2024. Adrien Demers/Shutterstock Last year, the world experienced the hottest day ...
    6 days ago
  • Mihi Forbes and the great Atlas conspiracy
    Graham Adams writes — Last week, Mihingarangi Forbes made an extraordinary claim while interviewing David Seymour on Mata Reports, a taxpayer-funded current affairs programme which, she says, looks at events through an “indigenous lens”. She asked him about Act’s links to the Atlas Network, which fosters connections between centre-right ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    6 days ago
  • Puffing Policy
    Public policy towards tobacco consumption remains politically sensitive. In 1983, a young researcher was told by a medium-level Treasury official that Treasury policy was to abandon excise duties on tobacco. The senior Treasury economist that I consulted, famed for his commonsense, snorted ‘we need the money’. He explained that no-excise-duty ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • Luxon is one of three prime ministers pressing for a ceasefire in Gaza – but the two-state solutio...
    Buzz from the Beehive Two days after hundreds of people rallied outside the New Zealand parliament and the US embassy in Wellington to protest against what they maintain is genocide in Gaza,  Prime Minister Chris Luxon joined with the Prime Ministers of Australia and Canada to express their  concerns that ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • All jellied up with possum grease
    1. Shane Jones, addressing the energy industry, called climate concern what?a. The only sane responseb. Undeniably valid c. Our last best hope d. A "religion" 2. Shane Jones’ demeanour in mocking and deriding climate activists can be observed in what other realm of human behaviour?a. Gleeful little boys pulling wings off fliesb. Gleeful ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Equality comes to Greece
    The Greek Parliament has voted for marriage equality: Greece has become the first Christian Orthodox-majority country to legalise same-sex marriage. Same-sex couples will now also be legally allowed to adopt children after Thursday's 176-76 vote in parliament. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said the new law would "boldly abolish a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER:  Iron in her soul.
      “Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.” – Friedrich Nietzsche   Chris Trotter writes – TELEVISION NEW ZEALAND is to be congratulated for inviting Chloe Swarbrick onto its Q+A current affairs show. The Green MP ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Feb 16
    Net emigration of New Zealanders overseas hit a record-high 47,000 in the 2023 year, which only partly offset net immigration of 173,000, which was dominated by arrivals from India, the Philippines and China with temporary work visas. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Stop Whispering.
    There's nothing to sayAnd there's nothing to doStop whispering, start shoutingStop whispering, start shoutingYesterday our government surprised a few of us by standing up for something. It wasn’t for the benefit of people who own holiday homes and multiple investment properties. Neither were there any tobacco companies or fishing cartels ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • “I'm Not Keen on Whataboutism, But What About…”
    Hi,Not sure how your week is going, but I’ve had a pretty frustrating one. I’ve been trying to put my finger on it, and I think it’s perhaps distilled in this message I got on Twitter:What got me a bit riled up is that it was a response to the ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National passing bad policies under urgency
    If National really had faith in its welfare policies, it wouldn’t be ramming them through Parliament under urgency – a step that means the policies can’t be exposed to select committee debate, public submissions, expert commentary, media scrutiny and all the normal democratic processes that this coalition appears to hold ...
    6 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 16-February-2024
    It’s Friday so once again here”s our roundup of some of the articles that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt looked at the Government’s war on Auckland. On Tuesday Matt covered the ongoing issues with the rail network. On Thursday Matt ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    7 days ago
  • The Dawn Chorus for Friday, February 16
    The six things to note in my view at 6.30 am on Friday, February 16 in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy are: Read more ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Iron In Her Soul.
    “Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.” – Friedrich NietzscheTELEVISION NEW ZEALAND is to be congratulated for inviting Chloe Swarbrick onto its Q+A current affairs show. The Green MP for Auckland Central is the odds-on ...
    7 days ago
  • Dig this
    Resources Minister Shane Jones yesterday told a breakfast hosted by Energy Resources Aotearoa precisely what they wanted to hear. “We campaigned to rehabilitate relegitimise and stand up for working families who derive their income,  derive their hope and derive purpose in regional New Zealand through a flourishing, growing, forward-leaning energy ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2024
    Open access notables Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, van Westen et al., Science Advances: Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and ...
    7 days ago
  • A rejection of the rule of law
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Shrugging-Off The Atlas Network.
    Upholding The Status-Quo: The Left’s election defeat is not the work of the Atlas Network. It is not even the work of David Seymour and Act. It is the work of ordinary citizens who liked the Right’s stories better than they liked the Left’s. If the Right’s stories were made ...
    1 week ago
  • BARRIE SAUNDERS: Treaty Principles – all rather problematic
    Barrie Saunders writes – When ACT’s leader said they wanted legislation to state what the Treaty principles mean, my first thought was this will be controversial and divisive.  Clearly it is. The first reference to the principles of the Treaty were contained in the 1975 Act establishing the Treaty of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago
  • Luxon Rejects The “Rejection Election” At His Peril.
    Fitting Right In: National retailed a reactionary manifesto of right-wing, racially-charged policies to the electorate throughout 2023. No talk back then of ignoring the overwhelming political preferences of the voting public and making a strong stand on principle. If Luxon’s pollsters and focus-groups were telling him that the public was ...
    1 week ago
  • Valentine’s Day went unnoticed on the Beehive website – but it is not “baa, humbug” to celeb...
    Buzz from the Beehive None of our ministers – a quick check with the Beehive website suggests – found cause to mention, let along celebrate, Valentine’s Day. But two ministers – Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson – ensured that National Lamb Day did not pass ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • Are You A Leftist?
    Nothing To Lose But Our Chains: The emancipatory movement which the Left, understood correctly, has always been, cannot accommodate those who are only able to celebrate one group’s freedom by taking it from another. The expectation, always, among leftists, is that liberty enlarges us. That striking-off a person’s shackles not ...
    1 week ago
  • An unlawful directive
    An interesting question in the Parliamentary written questions feed today, from Jan Tinetti to the Minister of Education: Has she or her Office directed the Ministry of Education to not release Official Information Act material prior to the full twenty working days, if so, why? Given that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • I’ve been doing this all wrong
    Here are six words that are not easy to say but god it can feel good when you finally say them:I’ve been doing this all wrongFive years ago today I said to myself:What if I'm doing this all wrong?Five years ago today I said to Karren: I think I’m going to ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
    This is a re-post from RealClimate by Stefan Rahmstorf A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals ...
    1 week ago
  • Drawn
    A ballot for five Member's Bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Parole (Mandatory Completion of Rehabilitative Programmes) Amendment Bill (Todd Stephenson) Goods and Services Tax (Removing GST From Food) Amendment Bill (Rawiri Waititi) Income Tax (ACC Payments) Amendment Bill (Hamish Campbell) ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Valentines from ACT.
    Some of us make a big deal out of Valentine’s Day. We’ll buy the flowers, eye watering though the price spike might be. Say the things we should be saying anyway, although diminished by being scheduled for delivery. Some of us will even write long free-form newsletters with declarations of ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Tax cuts paid for by 13k more kids in poverty
    MSD advised the government that the indexation change it passed under urgency last night is likely to put around 7,000 extra children (and potentially up to 13,000) into poverty. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government has reverted indexation for main beneficiaries to price inflation from wage inflation under ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • Minister attending Australian data, digital meeting
    Minister for Digitising Government Judith Collins is in Sydney to attend the first Data and Digital Ministers’ Meeting of 2024.  “This is a great opportunity to connect with our Australian counterparts and identify how we can work together on digital transformation,” Ms Collins says.   “Both our nations are looking into ...
    5 hours ago
  • Appointments to Antarctica New Zealand Board
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has appointed Leon Grice and Heather Simpson to serve on the Antarctica New Zealand board.  “Since taking office, the Coalition Government has become concerned about the direction of the Scott Base Redevelopment Project,” Mr Peters says.  “It is vital that Antarctica New Zealand has the right ...
    6 hours ago
  • Strengthening the Single Economic Market
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis has met with Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers to discuss the opportunities to lower business costs and increase the ease with which businesses and people can operate across the Tasman.     “I have met with Treasurer Chalmers and shared our new Government’s ambitious economic goals, our plans ...
    6 hours ago
  • Government to address business payment practices
    The Government will repeal the Business Payment Practices Act 2023, Small Business and Manufacturing Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “There is a major problem with large market players imposing long payment terms and routinely paying invoices late. “However, the Business Payment Practices Act is not an effective solution and would ...
    7 hours ago
  • Greater focus on work will reduce child poverty
    Worsening child poverty rates support the Coalition Government’s focus on reducing the cost of living and getting people into work, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. Figures released by Stats NZ today show child poverty rates have increased, with the rising cost of living, driven by inflation, making it ...
    10 hours ago
  • NZ announces new support for Ukraine
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins have marked two years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by announcing further support and sanctions, and extending our military assistance. “Russia launched its illegal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in blatant violation of international law, including the UN Charter,” Mr Peters says. ...
    10 hours ago
  • Finance Minister to meet Australian Treasurer
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to Australia today to meet her Australian counterpart, Treasurer Jim Chalmers.    “New Zealand and Australia have an incredibly strong trade and investment relationship. The Closer Economic Relations and Single Economic Market are powerful engines for growth on both sides of the Tasman.     “I will ...
    11 hours ago
  • PM shocked and saddened at death of Efeso Collins
    “I am truly shocked and saddened at the news of Efeso Collins’ sudden death,” Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “Efeso was a good man, always friendly and kind, and a true champion and advocate for his Samoan and South Auckland communities. “Our thoughts and deepest sympathies go to his family, ...
    1 day ago
  • Greater support for social workers
    The Coalition Government is enhancing the professionalism of the social work sector and supporting the vulnerable people who rely on them, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says.  The Social Workers Registration Legislation Amendment Bill passed its third reading in Parliament today. It amends the Social Workers Registration Legislation ...
    2 days ago
  • Government delivers greater freedom and choice for sick New Zealanders
    The coalition government is delivering on its commitment to making principled decisions by getting rid of red tape that doesn’t make sense and allowing sick New Zealanders greater freedom and choice to purchase effective cold and flu medicines. A bill amending the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975 is being introduced, and changes to the Medicines ...
    2 days ago
  • Government begins reset of welfare system
    The Coalition Government is taking early action to curb the surge in welfare dependency that occurred under the previous government by setting out its expectations around employment and the use of benefit sanctions, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. In 2017, 60,588 sanctions were applied to beneficiaries who ...
    3 days ago
  • State of the Nation
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora, good morning, talofa, malo e lelei, bula vinaka, da jia hao, namaste, sat sri akal, assalamu alaikum. Thank you for coming to my first State of the Nation as Prime Minister. Thank you for coming to a speech where I don’t just ...
    4 days ago
  • West Coast tourism attractions officially open
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones will attend the official opening of two highly anticipated tourism projects on the West Coast today – Pike29 Memorial Track, dedicated to the memory of the Pike River miners, and Pounamu Pathway. “The Pike29 Memorial Track is a way to remember and honour the men ...
    6 days ago
  • Independent ferry service advisory group in place
    Appointments to the Ministerial Advisory Group tasked with providing independent advice and assurance on the future of KiwiRail’s inter-island ferry service have been made, State Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It’s important for New Zealand that KiwiRail is focused on ensuring safe, resilient, and reliable ferry services over the ...
    1 week ago
  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand
    The Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on reports of Israel’s planned military operation in Rafah. We are gravely concerned by indications that Israel is planning a ground offensive into Rafah.   A military operation into Rafah would be catastrophic. About 1.5 million Palestinians ...
    1 week ago
  • Govt will deliver on expanded breast screening
    The coalition Government has made the first steps in delivering on its promise to  extend free breast screening to women aged 70-74, Health Minister Shane Reti says. “As part of the 100 day plan, the Government has now met with officials and discussed what is needed in order for the ...
    1 week ago
  • Government announces woolshed roadshows in support of sheep farmers
    The Government celebrates National Lamb Day (15 February 24) and congratulates sheep farmers on the high-quality products they continue to produce. Agriculture Minister McClay hosted bipartisan celebrations of National Lamb Day with industry representatives at Parliament this week to mark the anniversary of the first frozen lamb exports that left ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech: Address to the NZ Economics Forum
    It’s great to be back at the New Zealand Economics Forum. I would like to acknowledge everyone here today for your expertise and contribution, especially the Pro Vice-Chancellor, Head of the Waikato Management School, economists, students and experts alike. A year has passed since I was last before you, and ...
    1 week ago
  • Government tackling high construction costs
    The Government is focused on reducing sky-high construction costs to make it more affordable to build a home, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.  Stats NZ data shows the cost of building a house has increased by 41 per cent since 2019, making housing even more unaffordable for Kiwi ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Three Waters legislation repealed
    The Coalition Government’s legislative plan to address longstanding issues with local water infrastructure and service delivery took an important step today, with the repeal of Labour’s divisive and unpopular Three Waters legislation, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Repealing this legislation is a necessary first step in implementing our Local ...
    1 week ago
  • Cost of living support for beneficiary households
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to ease the cost-of-living by increasing main benefit rates in line with inflation and ensuring the Minimum Family Tax Credit threshold remains aligned with this change, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. The Social Security (Benefits Adjustment) and Income Tax ...
    1 week ago
  • Government announces agriculture delegations to better support Primary sector
    The coalition Government has announced ministerial delegations to support key areas across the Primary sector to deliver for New Zealand’s food and fibre sector, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I will be supported in my roles as Minister of Agriculture, Trade, Forestry and Hunting and Fishing, by three Associate ...
    1 week ago
  • Waikato MoU reinforces Govt’s commitment to increase NZ doctors
    The Government has taken an important step forward in addressing a critical shortage of New Zealand-trained doctors, with today’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding for a third medical school, Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti has announced.  “Today’s signing by the Ministry of Health and the University of Waikato ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech – Lunar New Year 2024
    Annyeonghaseyo, greetings and welcome all. It is my pleasure as the Minister for Ethnic Communities to welcome you to the first Lunar New Year Event in Parliament. Thank you to our emcees for greeting us in the different languages that represent the many cultures that celebrate the Lunar New Year. ...
    1 week ago
  • More funding to Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti
    Urgent work to clean-up cyclone-affected regions will continue, thanks to a $63 million boost from the Government for sediment and debris removal in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti.                                                                                                   The funding will help local councils continue urgent work removing and disposing of sediment and debris left from Cyclone Gabrielle.   “This additional ...
    1 week ago
  • Budget will be delivered on 30 May
    Plans to deliver tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders, rebuild business confidence and restore the Crown’s finances to order will be unveiled on 30 May, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The plans will be announced in the Budget which is currently being developed by Ministers.  “The last government’s mismanagement of ...
    1 week ago
  • Government advances Local Water Done Well
    The Coalition Government is continuing work to restore council ownership and control of water assets by repealing Three Waters and appointing a Technical Advisory Group to provide expert advice on the implementation of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government will pass a bill to ...
    1 week ago
  • Minister congratulates NZQA Top Scholars
    Education Minister Erica Stanford congratulates the New Zealand Scholarship recipients from 2023 announced today.  “Receiving a New Zealand Scholarship is a fantastic achievement and is a testament to the hard work and dedication the recipients have put in throughout the year,” says Ms Stanford.  “New Zealand Scholarship tests not only ...
    2 weeks ago
  • New diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced five new diplomatic appointments.  "Strong and effective diplomacy to protect and advance our interests in the world is needed now more than ever," Mr Peters says.  “We are delighted to appoint senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to these ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to the Committee for Auckland
    It is great to be here today at this event as Minister for Auckland and Minister ofTransport. Let me start by acknowledging each one of you and thanking the Committee forAuckland for hosting this event and inviting me to speak here today. The Committee for Auckland has been a symbol ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Getting Transport Back on Track in Auckland
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today confirmed his high-level transport priorities for Auckland, in the lead up to releasing the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport. “Our economic growth and productivity are underpinned by a transport network that enables people and freight to move around safely and efficiently. At ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government to axe Auckland Regional Fuel Tax
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has confirmed that the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax will end on 30 June 2024. “Today, I can confirm that the Government has agreed to remove the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax in line with our coalition commitments, and legislation will be introduced to parliament to repeal the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister Calls for Work to Tackle Kina Barrens
    Changes to fishing rules and a significant science programme are being undertaken to address kina barrens, says Minister for Oceans and Fisheries Shane Jones. “There has been tremendous interest from iwi, communities and recreational fishers who had raised concerns about such kina infestations being a major threat to Northland’s marine ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government law and order crackdown begins
    The coalition Government is making good on its promise to restore law and order by removing government funding for Section 27 reports and abolishing the previous Labour Government’s prison reduction target, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell say.  “In recent years, the development of Section 27 reports ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Greater focus on getting people into work
    The coalition government will refocus employment efforts and the welfare system so that supporting people who can work into jobs is the number one priority, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Of concern in the labour market statistics released by Stats NZ today was the number of youth not ...
    2 weeks ago
  • One year on, NZ appeals for release of Phillip Mehrtens
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has appealed to those holding New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens in remote Papua, Indonesia, to release him immediately.  Phillip Mehrtens was taken hostage a year ago on 7 February in Paro, Papua, while providing vital air links and supplies to remote communities. “We strongly urge those holding ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministers reaffirm Pacific connections this week
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Health Minister and Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti are reaffirming the importance of New Zealand’s connections to the Pacific by visiting Tonga, Cook Islands and Samoa this week.  “New Zealand enjoys strong and long-standing relationships with our Pacific partners - especially in Polynesia, where we ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Rt Hon Christopher Luxon – Waitangi speech
    E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā iwi, rau rangatira ma. Tēnā koutou katoa. He tino mihi ki te mana whenua o tēnei rohe.  Mihi mai, mihi mai, mihi mai. Te whare e tū nei, tēnā koe.                               He-wāhi whakahirahira tēnei mō Aotearoa. Ka huri nga whakaaro, ki nga mate. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government awards primary sector scholarships to students
    Six university students studying agriculture and science have been awarded scholarships as part of the coalition Government’s efforts to boost on-the-ground support for farmers and growers. “The coalition Government is committed to improving support and operating conditions for farmers and growers,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “We’re backing a range ...
    2 weeks ago

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