Latest Reid Research poll result disastrous for National and Bridges

Written By: - Date published: 6:04 pm, February 11th, 2019 - 248 comments
Categories: greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, Simon Bridges, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags:

 

Tova O’Brien described this poll as being “a doozy” and “huge”.

She was not wrong.

From what I can tell this is the first Reid Research poll since May last year.

Results are:

Labour 47.5%

National 41.6%

NZ First 2.9%

Green 5.1%

And the preferred Prime Minister results are:

Jacinda Ardern 41.8%

Simon Bridges 5%

Judith Collins 6.2%

That scraping sound you can hear is the sound of National caucus knives being sharpened.

248 comments on “Latest Reid Research poll result disastrous for National and Bridges”

  1. r0b 1

    Hopefully we will see other polls confirm this result. This very pleasing result.

  2. Dennis Frank 2

    Dramatic result, eh? Labour up 5% despite Kiwibuild set-back! Contradicts the end of year Colmar Brunton poll not long ago, so the holidays must have shifted how centrists feel. Winston will be spooked though…

    • mickysavage 2.1

      The Colmar Brunton poll was an outlier and contradicts all of the private polling that was happening. This result just reconfirms what is happening.

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1

        Well it does put their methodology into question. I heard Tova call Reid “the country’s most accurate poll” but she can’t make that claim on the basis of stats, eh? Both poll a thousand – same margin of error.

        The Reid website says they split 750 by phone and 250 online. Is that a credible basis on which to claim it is more accurate?

      • AOC 2.1.2

        Outside of this echo chamber (and your group think cricles) New Zealand is painfully aware of the shortcomings of this socialist elite that call themselves a coalition government. The Salvation Army’s State of the Nation Report published today,has criticised the ‘wellbeing-focused Government’ for not doing enough to lift the most vulnerable New Zealanders out of poverty. People pay attention to this stuff, and no matter the smoke and mirrors communities chatter and vote accordingly. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

        [Adjusted your name for obvious reasons – MS]

    • Tricledrown 2.2

      Winston always has a better turnout at electioms

      • Phil 2.2.1

        Winston always has a better turnout at elections

        No, he literally doesn’t. It’s a myth.

        He had two lucky late-breaks that raised his profile significantly in ’05 and ’08 that were never able to be picked up in the last set of polls before those elections. In all other MMP elections from ’96 onward, NZF results are comfortably in line with where final polling says they are.

        • swordfish 2.2.1.1

          Given that we’re focussing on the latest Newshub Poll:

          NZF does indeed have a tendency to perform mildly better on Election Day:

          2002
          TV3 last poll 8.0
          Election 10.4 (+2.4)

          2005
          TV3 last poll 6.8
          Election 5.7 (-1.1)

          2008
          TV3 last poll 3.4
          Election 4.1 (+0.7)

          2011
          TV3 last poll 4.1
          Election 6.6 (+2.5)

          2014
          TV3 last poll 7.1
          Election 8.7 (+1.6)

          2017
          TV3 last poll 7.1
          Election 7.2 (+0.1)

          • Dennis Frank 2.2.1.1.1

            It would help if a political scientist were to produce statistical analysis of NZF voters, eh? Down to 3% now, just sitting on the margin of error.

            So, using identity politics as a tribalist frame, we can deduce that their tribe is too small without centrist supporters. Defining centrists collectively as voters who are so opportunistic they go whichever way the zeitgeist blows, then some will vote NZF again to ensure it remains in parliament to limit the natural idiocy of the Nat/Labs.

            If Shane Jones abandons pomposity and grand-standing in favour of delivering regional development policies that genuinely seem suitable, enough centrists will vote in support of NZF anyway. Kiwis like to give credit where it’s due.

            I reckon the shift of centrists from National to Labour in last nights poll is a vote of confidence in the direction the coalition is trending in, combined with a feeling that National isn’t adapting to the change in global circumstances.

            • Incognito 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Incorrect, the MOE at 2.9% is 1.04%; the mentioned MOE of polls almost always refers to the midpoint of 50% unless indicated otherwise.

            • swordfish 2.2.1.1.1.2

              Mr Dennis Frank

              statistical analysis of NZF voters, eh?

              .

              The 2008-2014 iterations of the New Zealand Election Study suggest the bulk of NZF voters hold very similar views to the more morally conservative wing of Labour’s voting base.

              Not entirely surprising given that – over those 3 Elections – voters swinging to NZF were more than twice as likely to have been former Labour voters as former Nats.

              That represented a pretty healthy injection of Left-leaners into the NZF support-base, tilting the Party’s constituency ever further towards a Red rather than Blue orientation.

              From the NZES % stats … I calculated that, over those three consecutive elections, (and we’re talking particularly about 2011 & 2014 when NZF enjoyed their two-part comeback) something like 110k Lefties swung in Winnie’s direction as opposed to roughly 45k Nats (with a little over 60k from the broader Right as a whole).

              Essentially, younger moral liberals swung from Lab to Green … while older Labour moral conservatives headed in Winston’s direction.

              So in both the previous electoral behaviour of its new adherents and in the reciprocal swings going on between the various Parties, New Zealand First was beginning to look more and more like a third (albeit somewhat loosely affiliated) member of the Left Bloc.

              Also explains why in 3 of the last 4 Elections, a plurality or outright majority of intending NZF voters preferred a Labour rather than Nat Govt.

              • Dennis Frank

                Cool, thanks for that. Looks like the brand-building the Greens & NZF spent years doing to get their vote up around 10% failed to actually work – the people they attracted turned out to be merely fair-weather friends, just switching as a protest against the main parties.

          • Phil 2.2.1.1.2

            Ah, I got the years wrong.

            ‘Tea tapes’ was 2011 and is the year that immediately springs to mind where Winston was the MP that got the most last-minute traction.

            In 2014 the SFO scandal with Collins bought NZF back from the brink of oblivion in the month before the election.

            Without a scandal to give Winston media oxygen, NZF’s results are fair to middling against polling.

  3. millsy 3

    Thought it would be the other way round to be honest. Good stuff

  4. Drowsy M. Kram 4

    Hang in there Mr Bridges, long may you continue to ‘lead’ the opposition National Party.

  5. James 5

    Excellent news. Bridges is gone burger.

    Nz first are shot.

    Greens close to gone.

    Judith comes and saves the day.

    As a national supporter I’m al good with this.

    I stopped my donations while bridges was leader. Looks like I get to donate again soon #JudithForPM

    • r0b 5.1

      Nz first are shot.

      Only someone with the political attention span of a gnat would conclude this about NZF from any mid-cycle polls.

      Oh.

      As you were, then.

    • The Al1en 5.2

      Ignoring the fact Collins is a ‘massive’ 1.2% ahead of Bridges at 6.2%, and the nat caucus hates her more than Labour’s did with Cunliffe, yeah Judith for PM 😆 :smirk: :bellylaugh:

      • marty mars 5.2.1

        She loves herself so much it doesn’t matter that others don’t even like her.

        • The Al1en 5.2.1.1

          She won’t go for it, I reckon. She knows she’s widely detested, and people like her, despite all the front on show, can’t deal with rejection that will surely eventuate.
          She’ll get behind Mitchell and play for a ministerial salary and all the business opportunities she can open for her old fella’s company.

          • marty mars 5.2.1.1.1

            She will struggle with her animal cunning will to survive and the ego-preening that comes from people addressing you as leader. Time is ticking and there are only so many opportunities for her to grasp power. I think she’ll pounce soon – what the hell has she got to lose? Nothing.

            • The Al1en 5.2.1.1.1.1

              Time will tell. I suspect it all depends on whether she’s arrogant enough to think she can keep her ‘dealings’ on the down low. She’s been caught out more than once already, and as a party leader, the scrutiny isn’t going to lessen any.
              If she runs, and wins, every little thing will be dragged up again and looked in to, so there’s always that silver lining.

          • Muttonbird 5.2.1.1.2

            Mitchell? He’s the worst liar of the lot since Key abandoned ship.

            • The Al1en 5.2.1.1.2.1

              And that negatively affects nat leadership candidates how exactly?
              In fact, some would say, that’s 90% of the job description.

          • patricia bremner 5.2.1.1.3

            That is what I think as well.

        • cleangreen 5.2.1.2

          She’s to soiled by her underhanded connections and obvious work she has with the Chinese communist party..

          The Chinese Communist party do not sanction such a close alliance with anyone who is not Chinese as they have with Collins.

    • McFlock 5.3

      How many times have NZ1 been doomed, never to stalk the halls of Parliament again?

      Bold call, that man.

      [edit: [snap] R0b

      • Stunned Mullet 5.3.1

        Winston will be 75+ at the next election, NZ first is widely panned by a number of their supporters who perceive a betrayal of promises made before the election in relation to immigration in particular and the heir(s) apparent to Winston’s throne in NZF are either not well liked or not in the same class as WP.

        Unless one of the other parties provide a seat for NZF at the next election I’d be very surprised if they don’t fail to make the threshold and disappear from NZ politics for evermore.

        • McFlock 5.3.1.1

          Always a possibility, never a certainty.

          I suspect later on this year the smaller parties will begin trumpeting one or two key policy wins that clearly separate them from each other. If it’s background fizzle, they’ll take a hit, but if a wee bit of kayfabe goes on with Labour going “goddamn it, we’d have done/avoided X if it weren’t for those meddling kids”, the partners get back a few percent.

        • patricia bremner 5.3.1.2

          Fear not Stunned Mullet, Winston has been grooming Tabiteau for the succession. He is brilliant and a good communicator. But Winston is enjoying life and he is capable of continuing. Winston at half speed could out manoeuvre any of the gnats… especially Collins and Mitchell. He is like a good whiskey, better with age.

      • Wayne 5.3.2

        Twice (1999 and 2008) NZF has dipped below 5%, both times in the election following their choice of government. Though in both those cases there was also a change of government. So NZF are at genuine risk.

        In 2020 NZF will have to show how they can be an effective handbrake on Labour, if it looks like Labour will be the largest party after the 2020 election (and thus the government). Though they will have to pitch that in a positive way.

        • KJT 5.3.2.1

          I doubt that many NZF, supporters, especially the working class ones, who voted for him after Labour abandoned them, will be very happy about his parties sell out to Talley’s, and his failure to limit immigration. The handbrake from NZF on workers rights will not be ignored by them.
          Winston may have done his dash?

          We could start a party for those people. Maybe it could be called the “Labour party”.

        • Dennis Frank 5.3.2.2

          Struck me last night that the NZF drop is the main news, although I do acknowledge centrists are giving Labour more support than they deserve.

          David Mac got it. Shane Jones is turning people off. His style somewhat, but mainly his delivery of regional development. I reckon they don’t like how he’s doing it. So I give credit to National for exposing him effectively.

          Other centrists are not, however! Or, more likely, they grudgingly concede that point to National but are so underwhelmed by National’s total failure to notice that the world has changed and they need to change with it, that they are feeling the need to support Labour temporarily in order to get the message through the concrete in National heads.

        • McFlock 5.3.2.3

          lol so maybe they’re the kiss of death to governments – makes the centrist/swing vote argument look a bit suss I guess.

          But either way, both of those times they came back from oblivion, which is the relevant point. As opposed to JAPC, UF and ACT, which lasted a while on electorate life support – a couple for decades. Recovery from their comas is unlikely.

          NZ1? I’ll call it dead when it deregisters, lol

    • Cinny 5.4

      Happy for you James, re judith.

      She’ll never ever be PM of NZ, too polarizing, but I do admire your continued adoration of her, it’s very sweet.

      • ScottGN 5.4.1

        Apparently she only got 1 vote from the caucus in the leadership election to replace English. So it’s probable she’ll never even get as far as leader of that party, let alone leader of the country. I’m happy though for National to inflict as much damage as possible to the party as she tries to install herself as leader.

      • veutoviper 5.4.2

        Hey, hey – James has to compete with Puckish Rogue re Judith’s affections …

      • woodart 5.4.3

        no,its not sweet. its yet another right wing male with a hardon for being dominated . instead of the rest of us being under the collins whip, james should front up to his local dominatrix by by himself…personal responsibility,,,nah,he needs his hand held……

      • James 5.4.4

        Thanks.

        I think she’s a far better woman than Jacinda.

        • Muttonbird 5.4.4.1

          But she’s proven to be corrupt. Only another corrupt person could consider Judith a good woman.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 5.4.4.2

          Could have believed ‘a better woman’, but “a far better woman” – well now you’re being perverse.

          They are each in their own way very genuine human beings, but I wouldn’t invite the genuinely awful one to my BBQ dinner. And, based on the number of votes Collins received in the recent opposition National party leadership contest, neither would most of her caucus ‘colleagues’.

        • Cinny 5.4.4.3

          You’re welcome.

          I truly hope you get to meet her one day.

          Personally I think crusher thrives on any attention, is corrupt, greedy, a closet dominatrix and bat shit crazy.

          But hey everyone’s got different tastes.

          It looks like more nat’s prefer judiths flavour than simon. It’s gonna be game on in the blue house.

        • Psycho Milt 5.4.4.4

          I think she’s a far better woman than Jacinda.

          Where angels fear to tread, eh? Can you tell us what definition of “woman” you’re operating?

        • patricia bremner 5.4.4.5

          Your taste is all in your mouth James!! Too many charred steaks.

        • cleangreen 5.4.4.6

          James; – Whats better about Collins than Jacinda?

    • Sabine 5.5

      5.1 is enough.
      however
      41.6 is not .

      funny how numbers work ey?

      • In Vino 5.5.1

        And silly James (although he has, I am sure, been told before) seems ignorant of the proposition that the Greens have a 5% solid core of voters who will not vote for anyone else. I am in that category – even though I am saddened by some of the dumb things Green politicians have recently done. For that solid core of Green voters, all other parties are inferior and unacceptable. James – forget your dumb pipe-dream of the Greens going below 5%. If it was ever going to happen, it would have happened now, as with NZ First.
        So face it – the Greens have proven that they are here to stay. Not good news for you and your ilk.

        • James 5.5.1.1

          I love the fact it’s a 5% core vote. Only a couple of days ago someone was saying it was 7 or 8 %.

          And now it looks like there is green competition.

          Only has to take 1% of what you th8nk is their core vote and they are goneburger.

          • In Vino 5.5.1.1.1

            Just who said that, James?? Last election result was only 6.3%, so it would not be a clever thing to say. Are you making it up?
            If you want to talk about burgers, stick to the ones you make on your infamous barbecues.
            solkta (below) is on the money. You are on wishful fantasy.

          • cleangreen 5.5.1.1.2

            James;

            Greens have a 5.3% solid base even after those like me left after 2002..

            The greens will be around a long time, and will now press hard for regional rail and other ‘common sense’ environmental sustainable platforms that NZ First had stood for before the election.

            If you want ‘NZ First common sense policies’ I will willingly post them for you if you never were familiar what they all were before the last election.

            Have a nice day.

            • james 5.5.1.1.2.1

              2011 – 2014 you would have said that the greens had a 10% core base.

              It’s halved in the last few years. Its not a good trend for your friends the greens.

        • solkta 5.5.1.2

          Yes, while there are many Labour voters happy to drift over to the Greens, true Green voters have nowhere else to go.

        • Blazer 5.5.1.3

          I suspect it is less than 5%.I voted for them for the very first time ..to try and keep them in the game.
          On performance would not do next time.

          • Pat 5.5.1.3.1

            and thanks to that they achieved 6.9%…..I would be surprised given current circumstances if they fell below threshold in the foreseeable

    • mpledger 5.6

      The minor parties always suffer mid-term because voters are just thinking left or right – Labour or National. It’s only when it gets close to the election that voters think more in depth amongst about their left or right preference e.g. will strategic voting help their cause. Also near the elections, minor parties get more airtime.

      If National continue to sink then some of those National floaters will probably float NZ First’s way.

    • woodart 5.7

      judith saves the day…hahahaha. “here, let me steer the titanic for a bit”

    • Gabby 5.8

      Hopefully Judee has the solution to the housng crisis at her talontips.

      • patricia bremner 5.8.1

        Yes her husband might help lol lol Like Orivida or the Swamp Kauri. Swamp something that’s for sure. “James James Hold the ladder steady! Michell’s got the bag! What do you mean half of them want a Southern boat?”

    • Tricledrown 5.9

      No friends National where are they going to find a coalition partner. Winston was their only lifeline now National continue to try and destroy their only viable partner.

      • cleangreen 5.9.1

        True trickedrown;

        The competition now begins between National in midterm and labour offing Winston a ‘safe seat’ as national did for David Seymour in Epsom.

        We need to look at the political scene as being ‘just a big game’ not making common real as we thought.

    • Bearded Git 5.10

      If this trend continues plenty of room for greener labour people to tactically vite Green to be assured of partner and power

    • Rae 5.11

      If you are prepared to accept such a tainted and arrogant person as Collins “I don’t like swamps” Collins then it probably says as much about you as it does her

    • Jenny - How to get there? 5.12

      Judith Collins New Zealand’s version of Donald Trump?

      As unlikely as it may seem now, Judith Collins may one day be PM.

      From this poll it looks like Winston Peters’ red neck base are looking for a new home

      All Collins has to do to become leader of her party, (and potential PM), is to whip up racist hysteria about illegal immigrants and Maori.

      How will the Liberal Left in this country respond?

      Play up to the racist anti-immigrant anti-Maori gallery?

      Or mount a vigorous anti-racist counter attack?

      • solkta 5.12.1

        Don Brash couldn’t make it via Maori-bashing and that was with the seabed and foreshore stuff going on. People have moved on a lot since then and this shows in things like the number of Pakeha learning and wanting to learn Te Reo Maori. Most people don’t actually have a problem with immigrants even though they may have concerns about infrastructure coping with the numbers. While there is clearly a minority who respond to Winston’s strategic racism, they do not a majority make.

        I think in this scenario you would get the full on fight that you so obvious crave. I think Marama would do really well in this context and the Green vote would likely increase. National would suck a lot of vote off Winston putting NZF out of Parliament, but they would also lose some vote. End result, Labour/Green government.

        I think Collins and National Party strategists would also think that such a strategy would fail. National has been successful because they have been able to maintain a broad appeal. It is also unlikely that Collins would be able to get anti-immigration policy past her colleagues. They are the pro-immigration party remember.

      • james 5.12.2

        “How will the Liberal Left in this country respond?”

        Prob do another “chineese sounding names” effort like last time.

  6. Hooch 6

    So based on this, Nationals attempts to wipe out nz first and the greens next election will result in labour governing alone. Classic.

    • Labour governing alone?

      Great idea

      • Bearded Git 6.1.1

        Labour really needs to be sure of a support partner…this is the reason the Nats are out of power

        • cleangreen 6.1.1.1

          yes Beaded Git;

          Labour will obviously offer a ‘safe seat’ to their preferred support partner, like national did many times over their checkered history. David Seymour/ACT is the latest example.

  7. McFlock 7

    Way early yet, but the trends seem interesting.

    There will be some ructions after Soimon gets stabbed, though. Caucus meeting tomorrow, isn’t it? 👿

    • ianmac 7.1

      Jamie-Lee reckoned that Simon had been with-holding their own poll results from caucus. Wonder why?
      Roosting vultures are getting clucky.

    • patricia bremner 7.2

      JLR had a good sleep. Job just about done.

  8. ankerawsharkP 8

    Wow this is very good news.

    Very unfortunate for Simonl

    James attempt to spin this positively is laughable though

  9. Reality 9

    It seems people are astute enough to know that despite some Kiwibuild difficulties, at least the Government is recognising the housing shortage and is working hard to rectify that. Along with all the other neglected issues over nine years.

    NZ is very fortunate to have Jacinda Ardern as our PM. She has never become arrogant and smug and is very aware there is much to be done.

  10. Ad 10

    We have an awesome Prime Minister.

    Great start to the year.

    • patricia bremner 10.1

      We absolutely do Ad. PM Ardern is amazing.
      The Opposition including “Mouth pieces” have tried to wear her down in every way possible, and Tracey’s comment was to let us know that Dirty Politics was alive and well. The PM is so far above the nasties, and the polls confirm this.

    • cleangreen 10.2

      True that is Ad.

  11. Fireblade 11

    👹BM
    8 February 2019

    Bridges is far better than I first thought.
    I was harsh on the man, to begin with, but he’s got some serious smarts and is working to a plan.

    2020 is looking like a National win, to be honest.

    • Robert Guyton 11.1

      That BM! Finger on the pulse.

      • Charlie 11.1.1

        The only thing BM has his finger on his is dick, and he finds that and his balls hard to find. BM is a Farrarbog troll. His agenda is to infiltrate the Standard and oppose all pro coalition opinion vigorously. He and David F will be slutted as these results.

        • Muttonbird 11.1.1.1

          BM is a gadfly. An annoyance to everyone, everywhere.

          • Charlie 11.1.1.1.1

            Titi you are too generous, gadfly’s are interesting, BM is more a headless turd.

            • In Vino 11.1.1.1.1.1

              I am sure BM will soon reply to justify his outburst of 8 Feb. Unless he is like so many other Rightie trolls who run for the hills when they know the thread is lost. Please don’t discourage him with unnecessarily harsh language!

            • Tricledrown 11.1.1.1.1.2

              Boringly Monotonous wind up Troll. The Dogmatic version like Simple Simon barks at cars continuously.

          • cleangreen 11.1.1.1.2

            Yes Muttonbird

            BM is a twat. – like a pimple on a dickie.

  12. R.P Mcmurphy 12

    time has passed the nationals party by. they are like every other privileged elite who were not able to see the end of the ancien regime. the world has turned.

    • Observer Tokoroa 12.1

      Hi R.P Mcmurphy

      ” time has passed the Nationals by ”

      You are so right ! They never came up with anything useful. Just slumped in their mysterious strange ways.

      As far as the Public voting for National – they are not going to Vote for a Pm who fiddles with little girls Hair – and perceivably get his Jollies. He Stinks – does that Rat.

      Even His wife has to tug him away for harassing young waitresses in the local Cafe. He has only one thing on his mind. Filth. National adore that smelly evil man.

      As you imply – The Public want affordable Housing and affordable Rentals. National gave them neither. Although Key built one house in 2017.

      So while John Key was sexing up on Kids, he and his mate Bill English were starving workers and their Families. Via Low low Wages. They Hated the honest workers. Both claimed there was no housing Crisis. For Crying out loud !

      Judith Collins is a selfish one family issue. Totally Selfish. A trouble maker and dishonest.

      Simon is a “hey Look at me man”. Achieves nothing. years after years. Tries to smash Jacinda – and looks a Fool. A non achiever.

      National has no Future.

    • cleangreen 12.2

      RP Mcmurphy 100%

      It sends images of this;

      The ‘rotting carcass of the old ‘once proud National Party’ is now wriggling with worms’ turning and trying to escape.

  13. The knives are being sharpened as we speak within National however a logical successor for the long term does not stand out IMHO.

  14. Cinny 14

    Miss 14 watched the poll results with me…… both of us burst out laughing.

    • patricia bremner 14.1

      Well Cinny and Miss 14, I have been called “Biased in la la land”, but I’m hap hap happy today. So I’m laughing too.
      Jacinda Ardern and team you rock!!. Go Labour and the Coalition!!

  15. Andre 15

    Keep the faith, Nats.

    Just remember Auntie Helen had her low points in polling, but then she became Prime Minister (and a highly respected one) for nine years. Slimin’ can do it too!

    Or not.

    • Correct Simon is doing his Apprenticeship and in 7 or 10 years time could well be the PM of NZ.

    • Tricledrown 15.2

      National don’t like loosers never have Bridges is running out of time.

      • cleangreen 15.2.1

        Tricledrown 100%

        absolutely as Bridges is a shallow man seen by all.

        NZ hates a looser.

        He should have bent towards some regional rail freight and passenger services and other infrastructure policies to shore up his NZ wide base rather than just going on his talk fest .

        He did say he was keen to have an “enduring’ relationship wit the green party’ didn’t he?

  16. Robert Guyton 16

    James…Pucky…Keeping Stock…Pete George… do you have people you can be with?
    Feel our love.

    • The National Party Trolls will be crying into their pillows tonight.

    • Puckish Rogue 16.2

      With Queen Jude the first polling that high as preferred PM I’ll be feeling the love tonight all right don’t worry about that (I mean sure I’m by myself but it won’t lack for passion)

      The plan is coming along nicely, WinstonFirst is slowly being edged out of the picture no matter who wins so that’s a bonus and Jude the Magnificent will ride in on Nationals hour of need, take us to her bosom and rescue us all

  17. Pat 17

    before everyone gets too excited , remember this is a (rare) mid term poll…it means little….and the fact Bridges is not rated is hardly news

  18. Muttonbird 18

    Lol. While trying to find what preferred PM rating Andrew Little resigned on I stumbled upon this dozy from Hoskings:

    It’s not Little, it’s Labour

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11897447

    Sums up Hoskings’ grip on politics. 🤣

  19. mary_a 19

    This result favouring Labour and Jacinda, combined with the spectre of JLR hovering in Parliament, as well as a lot of questions which will need answering, will be giving Simon nightmares. No sleep for him tonight, or several more nights I’d say!

    Oh dear, what a shame, never mind …

  20. Muttonbird 20

    At least we know why the Nats and their cronies have decided to Venezuela-ise every discussion about the government.

    They’re looking very, very desperate.

    • ankerawsharkP 20.1

      Yes the Venezulian line. That’s all working out well isn’t it! Keep going Simon and National. Your digging yourself into a ditch. It won’t be a one horse race for leadership in National IMHO……….

      BTW 100 + Ad further up. Jacinda Ardern is a total heroine. We are lucky to have her.

  21. timeforacupoftea 21

    This was no surprise, Bridges was dead meat at all the barbecues over Xmas and nothing changed now halfway through February – except the dead meat is now composting nicely.

    • Muttonbird 21.1

      No, no, timeforacupoftory. The consensus among you deluded Nats was that Bridges was doing better and and it was all looking good for governing alone.

  22. David Mac 22

    Judith Collins would be a sensational Prime Minister said 3 people ever.

    Jacinda has Judith’s redeeming aspects in spades.

    John Key rose very quickly but they do currently appear to be bankrupt of charisma. I wonder if they’re about to enter their soul searching decade of election bridesmaids.

  23. JustMe 23

    Repeatedly Simon Bridges is coming across as weak.

    And so whilst National keep Bridges as being their leader then it’s unlikely National will ever be worthy of voting for at say next years’ general election.

    Still my advice to National and its MPs is to please keep Bridges as YOUR Leader because every comment, statement etc that he makes reflects so badly against National that it’s a joke.

  24. Muttonbird 24

    Wasn’t 47% the number Bridges thought he’d need to govern alone? Ironic that Labour have hit that just days after he said it. 😁

    • David Mac 24.1

      He’s not out of the running, he could ring Jacinda and say “We want to buy your job.”

      • Charlie 24.1.1

        And probably that would be the first time Jacinda utters a public profanity, fuck off Simon we are not forsale.

      • mary_a 24.1.2

        @ David Mac (24.1) … love it 🙂 In desperation, anything could be on the cards from Simon Britches.

    • ankerawsharkP 24.2

      Muttonbird, yes that’s right. 47% Simon’s figure. Oh dear, its all going wrong. Never mind

  25. Dennis Frank 25

    Farrar carefully avoids mentioning the Nat drop (what elephant? where?):
    “I understand the poll wasn’t done last week but is mainly from January. It is curious they waited so long to release it, if that is the case. January was of course when the PM had huge attention at Davos and issues such as the Kiwibuild meltdown had not really gone full frontal. Governments often get a bump in January as it is the quiet season and there is no Parliament. So I’ll be more interested in the next poll.”

    I checked the Reid poll page and it does not specify the dates of the actual polling. Extremely unprofessional of them!!

    • Muttonbird 25.1

      Farrar also fails to mention the scaremongering he and the Nats and the property investor community have been indulging in having the opposite effect from what they intended.

      The closer Labour get to announcing a CGT, the higher they go. Seems New Zealand is finally mature enough to begin taxing capital.

      • Dennis Frank 25.1.1

        Yes, good point. If I were them, I’d wait for the next poll. If still ahead, I’d do the CGT announcement pronto, so there’s plenty of time for the country to adapt before the poll after that…

      • patricia bremner 25.1.2

        Yes Muttonbird. That “Oneroof” crowd. Every Advertorial had Gnat’s signs all over.

    • Craig H 25.2

      Newshub has the dates – 24/1 to 2/2.

  26. Kat 26

    National won’t be calling for a “snap election” any time soon then. The truth is they have actually gone up from the last recent Colmar Brunton poll result which had National at 46% which was in reality 38%……the one Wayne said was “pubic” and “professional'”.

    Be very wary of polls.

  27. Stuart Munro 27

    There are two obvious moves the left must make in response to a poll like this. The first a running a sweepstake on when the metaphorical knife will dice Simon’s giblets. The next is a sweepstake on where the turning point will be on the Gnat’s precipitous descent – the line from down to 41 still looks fairly steep, and the last year has not shown the Gnats moving past the first stage of grief – denial. They might level out at 35, but the line under their rock bottom support used to be 23 – plumbed by Bill English with a strong contribution from the bogeywoman. Rebuilding support is a hard task, and the thickets of deadwood aren’t going to do it for them.

  28. ScottGN 28

    You’d have to think that this poll leaves National’s primary strategy of driving NZFirst and the Greens below 5% and governing alone on about 47% at the next election dead in the water.
    If anything it gives those smaller parties an excellent opportunity to harvestwhat seem still to be plentiful votes at the edges of National. “Vote for us to keep Labour honest!” National could be heading to a very dark place for the next few years.

  29. David Mac 29

    I wonder if Shane’s mission has hurt the NZ First vote. I don’t think their core vote would be happy with his touring the country looking for things to throw cash at while so many of their friends struggle to pay for their power. When launched it appeared to have value as an activity incubator but gee, is it delivering?

    Just as with Kiwibuild, making adjustments mid journey are not signals of failure, with big jobs, they’re crucial.

  30. Fireblade 30

    Newshub are really taking the piss.

    National plunges to worst result in over a decade.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/02/national-plunges-to-worst-result-in-over-a-decade-newshub-poll.html

  31. David Mac 31

    In the population sparse Far North there is a company called Advance Homes. Under a big roof, last year they built and then delivered over 50 new homes, 1 a week, their waiting list stretches out before them.

    I think Shane’s money should be meshing in with that kind of activity, attach a Polytech arm.

    Planting trees that will mature in 30 years is well and good. Right now we need lots of viable paths to 100k incomes. Winston’s voters want to see their loved ones prospering. Clambering around a mountain-side with a knapsack of seedlings, it’s not a career.

    • Sacha 32.1

      Hardly a happy family: “At the end of last year, Bridges’ own MPs were talking to Newshub on background about the likelihood of the leader being rolled.”

    • Muttonbird 33.1

      That’s got to hurt. You do all that work and think you’re doing ok and yet the public prefer a corrupt cow over you.

    • David Mac 33.2

      If I was forced to sail a 30ft yacht up to Fiji with either Simon or Judith I’d pick judith but I’d rather swim.

      Like Jacinda, Judith is never far from having a laugh, we like that in people. Has anyone ever heard Simon Bridges’ genuinely laugh? I can’t recall the occasion. He sniggers in sarcasm and chortles at the misfortune of others, but a genuine LOL, nope, I’m coming up blank.

  32. Liberal Realist 34

    Hmm wonder if the Nats will try and parachute the next John Key(?) in this election cycle. It’s a long bow, but who knows? The new teale thingy of Tava doesn’t have legs methinks. Collins or Mitchell, too many skeletons!! Who else is there?

    I must say, for only a single poll, the tears of the tory mass over at Stuff are delicious!

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/110518398/poll-hit-for-national-party-and-leader-simon-bridges

    • Drowsy M. Kram 34.1

      Thanks for posting the link. I did laugh at this comment under that Stuff news item:

      Interview with National MP:

      “Do you support Simon Bridges?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader”.

      “Are you enjoying the summer weather?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader.”

      “Will the All Blacks win the World Cup?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader.”

      “Are you just repeating like a robot, which makes you look totally insincere?” “Yes, I am 100% behind our leader.”

    • Kat 35.1

      Audrey, that poor old National poodle, will be having kittens you can be assured. Given that National/Act in the current MMP environment represent the entire opposition this result is equivalent to Labour being on 30% or much lower. When the average “public” poll gets below 35% for National then is when Collins will make her move. May the blood run.

    • Craig H 35.2

      Thank the Lord, I was concerned!

    • newsense 35.3

      Wait for the commentariat to agree with Matthew and call her an experienced journalist. Imagine the howls of derision which would have greeted a Labour leader

  33. AB 36

    National disturbingly high at 41% when they represent a retrograde ideology that should have been dead and buried long ago.
    It means another National government is inevitable at some point in the future, which is like having a little bit of sick in your mouth permanently.

    • Tony Veitch [not etc.] 36.1

      I don’t agree, AB – another Nat government is NOT inevitable at some point in the future.

      There has been a subtle (and sometimes not so subtle) shift in NZ politics. Most people are well aware that neoliberalism is in its death throes and that the Nats only achieved a surplus by poor management of the sort of services we all depend on – like education, health and welfare and the environment.

      I expect the trend in Nat poll figures to continue to drop, maybe even as low as the mid twenties, as the ‘kindness’ of the Coalition government seeps into the consciousness of people.

      While the Labour led coalition is nowhere radical enough – either for my expectations or for what is necessary to do something meaningful about climate change, their softer face of government is having an impact.

      Couple that with the referendum on cannabis at the same time as the next election, which will bring out the young people (for better or worse) and the Coalition government (in various forms) will bolt in.

  34. alwyn 37

    I guess the left will very shortly have to drop the “no mates” label they have been using about National.
    On this poll New Zealand First is dead. As the Green Party never do as well at the election as they do between elections they are dead also.
    I guess that the election is going to between “no mates” Labour and “no mates National, except perhaps for the single remaining member from the ACT Party.
    Oh well, as has happened at every MMP Government the main party in the coalition will have destroyed any other party that has gone into coalition with them.

    • Sacha 37.1

      You do not have much faith in our fellow voters. There will be more than two parties in the next parliament.

      • alwyn 37.1.1

        Well, you will note that I did suggest it would probably be 3.
        Do you think the real Green Party will get in? Or the Gareth Morgan will finance another go and succeed this time? I suppose it is possible but I don’t really expect it to happen.

        • Sacha 37.1.1.1

          Act’s poll result doubled to 4 out of 1000 this time, after all!

          • alwyn 37.1.1.1.1

            Did they really. Doubled! Incredible.
            As long as they continue to win Epsom they will remain in Parliament as you must surely be aware. The party vote is irrelevant.
            On the other hand I cannot see the Green Party ever winning an Electorate and the chances of New Zealand First doing so are very, very slim.

            • Sacha 37.1.1.1.1.1

              One MP is not much of a partner to crow about.

              • alwyn

                “One MP is not much of a partner to crow about”.
                Of course not. On the other hand it is certainly more than the zero members that Winston First and the Water melons will have after the 2020 election, isn’t it?
                Should I have put /sarc/ or something after the first line which starts “Did they really”?

        • You_Fool 37.1.1.2

          Yes, I think the real Green Party will continue to be in parliament, and probably in government proper next time

    • Muttonbird 37.2

      Pardon me if I don’t take your analysis seriously. You’ve been spreading lies about the government recently and don’t even have the guts to retract.

      I suspect it’s to do with your state of mind on seeing that the best the National Party can do is boosting Labour.

      • alwyn 37.2.1

        “Spreading lies”?
        Don’t be silly you diesel soaked seagull.
        I have merely been telling the truth about the Government. I realise you may not like it but I fail to see that I have any obligation to support your fantasies about them.
        You should read my comments with an open mind. Then you will understand what the Bible says in John 8:32.
        “And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free”.

        • Muttonbird 37.2.1.1

          You should read alwyn 5:92

          Six houses…are being dumped onto the open market.

          You may have to repent, alwyn. God doesn’t like a liar.

          • alwyn 37.2.1.1.1

            My description seems to be quite accurate.
            Did anyone who had registered for the Kiwibuild program want to buy any of those houses? NO. Did a Land agent then have to try and get rid of them to other people who had never even registered? YES.
            That definitely sounds like dumping properties to me.

            • Muttonbird 37.2.1.1.1.1

              Liar. You said they were “dumped onto the open market”. This would be of great concern were it true but it isn’t true. is it?

              And again, if you read the article you would have found that people who registered were interested in those houses but were apparently unable to access the required finance.

              • alwyn

                That is mostly because the price for them was a lot higher than they could afford, and a lot higher than Phil Twyford had said they would be.
                Seems quite ridiculous, and reprehensible, that they bought properties that a developer had built without even finding out whether anyone wanted them doesn’t it?
                Pretty much par for the course for that idiot Minister though.

                • Muttonbird

                  Another lie. Kiwibuild properties were always $650K for three bedrooms.

                  • alwyn

                    Absolute rubbish
                    “Labour’s KiwiBuild programme will build 100,000 high quality, affordable homes over 10 years, with 50% of them in Auckland. Standalone houses in Auckland will cost $500,000 to $600,000, with apartments and townhouses under $500,000. Outside Auckland, houses will range from $300,000 to $500,000.”
                    https://www.labour.org.nz/housing

                    That was their announced policy. Even in Auckland they were never conceived as costing $650,000.
                    Surely you owe us an apology for that lie of yours?
                    After all “God doesn’t like a liar” as someone said just a little above here.

                    • Muttonbird

                      Meh. 2017 election policy.

                      It’s 2019 now, two years on under the house price inflation caused by the previous government’s addiction to cheap foreign labour and to corrupt foreign capital.

                      However I will admit I got that 2017 figure wrong. Now how about that “open market” statement of yours?

    • Kat 37.3

      Except what you fail to realise Alwyn is Labour went into coalition with NZ First. Shall leave you to ponder that one.

      • alwyn 37.3.1

        That is the reason I made the comment.
        Shall I explain it further?
        New Zealand First, the minor party went into coalition with Labour, the major party.
        New Zealand First are now on 2.9%, which is far below the number they need to survive.
        ergo. New Zealand First, after going into coalition with Labour has been destroyed.
        What don’t you understand about that?

        • marty mars 37.3.1.1

          Lol that poll is a classic eh – there must be some restless sleepers tonight and they’re all gnats. So funny.

          • alwyn 37.3.1.1.1

            Not being a member of any party it certainly isn’t going to spoil my sleep.
            I’ll bet Winston and the Water melons will be a bit uncomfortable though.
            I think we will be better of when both those parties are out of our Parliament.

            • In Vino 37.3.1.1.1.1

              A pity from your point of view that despite unfavourable circumstances, the Greens remain solidly above 5%. Logic would say that they should have sunk like NZ First. Got some wishful spin about that to condescendingly ‘explain’?

        • Kat 37.3.1.2

          They say explaining is losing but one last time, Alwyn, you think NZ First went into coalition with Labour, I said in fact Labour went into coalition with NZ First. There is a subtle but very important difference. Hint: policy.

          • alwyn 37.3.1.2.1

            Well, apart from the fact that Labour were so desperate that they gave total control to Tsar Winston and he has the exclusive ability to set policy I can’t really see what the “subtle” distinction is.
            Do you really think that their complete and utter surrender to Winston’s dictates is the mark of a competent and confident party?
            I cannot imagine Helen Clark ever agreeing to such a situation and Bill English certainly wasn’t having a bar of it.

            • Peter 37.3.1.2.1.1

              You can’t really see what the “subtle” distinction is? No surprise there as
              what you can see is that Labour gave total control to ‘Tsar’ Winston and him having the exclusive ability to set policy.

              Specsavers is in most major centres. Someone will help you find your way to one.

          • alwyn 37.3.1.2.2

            Oh, by the way.
            At the time Winston himself said that he was going into coalition with Labour. Ardern agreed with the statement.
            “Peters says NZ First will go into coalition with the Labour Party”
            https://www.interest.co.nz/news/90427/peters-says-nz-first-will-go-coalition-labour-party-turn-around-new-zealand-capitalism
            I realise that you might remember it differently but I would tend to accept the statement made by the people involved at the time.

            • Sacha 37.3.1.2.2.1

              “Ardern agreed with the statement.”

              Funny how the linked article does not say that at all. But keep on grabbing for some consolation.

              • alwyn

                Well she didn’t contradict it in any way did she. She said that it was an “exciting day”.
                She was also surprised at the time and I believe she said she didn’t know what Winston was going to say. That certainly doesn’t sound like someone who had made the Coalition decision does it?
                No Winston picked her because he knew that he could totally control such a coalition.

                By the way, did you see this statement further done the article?
                “She also said that the full texts of the agreements with NZ First and the Greens would likely be released next week as well.”.
                We are still waiting aren’t we? Obviously Tsar Winston put his foot down and she was in no position to upset him.
                What was in those 36 or 38 or however many pages there were I wonder?

                • Sacha

                  I believe you have said enough for people to judge the honesty of your words.

                  • alwyn

                    You are being very sensible to stop now Sacha.
                    If you had kept on you would be just like Muttonbird who has never learnt that when you are in a hole you should stop digging.
                    I am pleased to see that you have accepted that what I have said is fully backed up with facts.

    • ScottGN 37.4

      I think both minor parties will be pretty happy, after all they both seem to have a core vote that’s within coo-ee of the threshold (unlike the previous government’s support partners who all languished well below 1%) and must be confident that there are votes to be gained when National’s constituent parts start to fracture as Bridges leads them to an even more comprehensive election defeat in 2020.

    • Bearded Git 37.5

      You forget there are some Labour voters with some green blood who realise Labour needs a partner and so will tactically vote Green.

      Labour especially needs to be sure of the Greens still being around in the 2023 election (2020 is looking all over)

  35. Tricledrown 38

    Funny Alwyn the only option National had. JLR hasn’t finished yet.

  36. Got home a few minutes ago and caught up with the poll. No point me re-hashing what this result means for Bridges, but I am very, very pleased about what it means for Iain Lees Galloway.

    Despite months of continual attacks, nothing the nasty party threw at ILG stuck. He’s still doing his job, his party are ahead in the polls and his leader has been proved right by showing him solidarity. Cool, ae?

    Oh, and Jami Lee Ross … that thing you’re feeling right now? The Germans probably have a word for it, but you can call it vindication if you want.

    Righto, must dash. I’ve got to pop over and check Trademe, see if anyone has a used Democracy Mum for sale. Price no object.

  37. mosa 40

    I think Tova must have wet herself given her excitement that Bridges is a dead man walking and that Judith is a viable contender even with 6% support.
    Not surprising who Media Works think should be Nationals leader and who they will supporting.
    Never mind Labour’s remarkable comeback from two years ago.
    Watch the media nasties promote Collins and turn on Bridges in the next few months.
    Parliament should be worth a watch this afternoon.

  38. Sanctuary 41

    Kate Hawkesby’s headline in today’s online edition of the house journal of the Auckland smug right sums up the right and white MSM response.

    “…Exactly what is it about Simon Bridges that voters don’t like..?” she plaintively wails. The focus from them has entirely been about fretting about National’s fall. I mean, how can all those angry middle aged white men who call ZB be wrong?

    The MSM right wing opinionistas have tried to build a narrative of a ramshackle government government lacking substance reeling under sucker punches from an effective and vigorous opposition. This has evaporated to dust, and the main reaction has been one of disbelief and cognitive dissonance. Matthew Hooton has been exposed (yet again) as being a full on bullshit artist, not that that will stop RNZ considering him to be a decent political commentator rather than just another seriously deluded right wing fantasist with nothing much to offer.

    In particular, the attacks on Ardern, that not so subtle loathing of her by aging white men on ZB who have tried to dismiss her as a “Cindy,” have blown up in their faces. It is almost as if they interview each other for their reckons.

    • Rae 41.1

      It’s not just ZB anymore, if you want real sore loser syndrome such as you describe, tune into that Magic Talk (the new iteration of Radio Live) 9 to noon and listen to Peter Williams. He has not done his reputation any favours. Thank god for actual 9 to noon on RNZ.
      Might just have to tune into Williams for a while though for entertainments sake

      • Rapunzel 41.1.1

        Likewise, he is truly unbearable with his lecturing so how he will respond to this will be interesting,
        Why his employers think that the make-up of their new set of announcers will gain a wide audience especially after the National Party failure of “personality” politics has gotten them nowhere.

    • patricia bremner 41.2

      Sanctuary… “as if they interview each other for their reckons” Just so desperate.

  39. Infused 42

    I guess it shows how dumb the average labour voter is.

    Nothing delivered. Flagship policies in tatters.

    The mental health policy with no actual policy being farmed out to even more working groups.

    So I can only conclude this is a vote to get rid of simon

    • Rae 42.1

      Really?

    • patricia bremner 42.2

      Infused ….A reminder of 17 months worth.
      Outlining our big challenges.
      Climate Change & Inequality
      Te Maori view of the world.
      Dealing with Challenges (Mico Plasma Bovis)
      Doing the research on Wellbeing
      Mental health Committees
      Studying barriers to work and study for youth
      New inspectors finding employment breaches.
      Strengthening commercial law
      Slowing migration with targets
      Building state and private houses
      Helping the poor through winter
      Supporting young parents
      Raising wages
      Increasing the Health Budget
      Making teaching more attractive
      Working as a Coalition team
      Staying positive
      Representing us well overseas
      Having political courage in fraught overseas trade situations
      There will be more I have missed but Infused you are wrong.

  40. If you think Simon Bridges is doing it tough, spare a thought for his head of media. Poor old Guyon was stuck with interviewing the PM on National Radio and had to bluff his way through ten minutes of airtime without mentioning the poll result.

    Airplanes? Tick?
    IRD? Tick?
    Poll resu … Cross, cross, cross, let’s move on …

    • patricia bremner 43.1

      That is because he goes in with his instructions and he has to toe the RW party line lol

  41. swordfish 44

    Latest Newshub Reid Research Poll:
    (A few Stats)

    ————-2017 Election—-TV3 Poll (Feb 2019)—-Change

    Labour——— 36.9 —————- 47.5 ————— Up 10.6

    Green———- 6.3 ——————- 5.1 ————— Down 1.2

    Lab+Green— 43.2 —————– 52.6 ————— Up 9.4

    NZF————– 7.2 ——————- 2.9 —————- Down 4.3

    Coalition——- 50.4 —————– 55.5 ————— Up 5.1

    .

    National——– 44.4 —————– 41.6 —————- Down 2.8

    ACT————— 0.5 ——————- 0.4 —————– Down 0.1

    Oppo———— 44.9 —————– 42.0 —————- Down 2.9

    (All other Parties)– 4.7 ————– 2.5 —————– Down 2.2

    .

    ————————-2017 Election—-TV3 Poll (Feb 2019)—-Change

    Coalition leads Oppo by–– 5.5 ————— 13.5 ———— + 8.0

    Coalition leads Right by—– 5.2 ———-—- 12.4 ————– + 7.2

    .

    Preferred PM / Leader Performance
    (Comparisons with same point into first terms of Clark & Key Govts)

    Ardern more popular than Clark at same point into first term / Bridges less popular than Shipley the year she was rolled by the charismatic English

    Feb 2001——————————————-Feb 2019

    Preferred PM

    Clark .. 30 .. (performing well 63) ———– Ardern .. 41.8 .. (performing well 68.3)

    Shipley 13 .. (performing well 54) ———- Bridges …. 5.0 … (performing well 21.9)

    ——————————————————– Collins …… 6.2

    .

    Bridges less popular than Goff at the same stage:

    Feb 2010

    Key … 49.4 .. (performing well 73.5) …. Net …. plus 57.9

    Goff … 8.2 …. (performing well 33.7) ….. Net .. minus 12.9

    Compare with:

    Feb 2019

    Ardern… 41.8 .. (performing well 68.3) …. Net …. plus 51.5

    Bridges … 5.0 … (performing well 21.9) …. Net .. minus 28.9

    • patricia bremner 44.1

      Thanks Swordfish.

      • Cinny 44.1.1

        +1 Love your work Swordfish

        Those stats were very interesting, could simon be the lowest polling nat leader NZ has ever seen?

        • swordfish 44.1.1.1

          He’s beginning to rival Jim McLay’s woeful ratings … the least popular Nat & Oppo leader since regular polling commenced in 1969.

          (Clark & Bolger both went very low in the Preferred PMs … but they also soared into the 20s during their respective stints as Oppo leader … so their averages were far higher than McLay’s).

          Paradoxically, the Nats enjoyed a significant bump in support when McLay toppled Muldoon, & they held onto (and even consolidated) that lift … even while McLay continued to languish in the Preferred PMs, falling towards low single digits.

          Goff had been the second least popular Oppo leader … but Bridges is now in the process of toppling him from that coveted position.

      • swordfish 44.1.2

        Cheers, patricia.

    • mosa 44.2

      Good work as always Swordfish.
      Interesting analysis.

    • Pat 44.3

      im sorry but i’ll have to call the inaccuracy…..”the charismatic English”?

  42. Dennis Frank 45

    Herald says the polling was Jan 24 – Feb 2: “Some of the political events that occurred over shortly before or over the polling period included Ardern’s trip to London, Davos and Brussels; Bridges’ announcement that National would index tax-rate thresholds to inflation; an acknowledgement by the Government that Kiwibuild would fall well short of its short term target; ex-National MP Jami-Lee Ross re-entering public life and Sarah Dowie being named as the ex-lover who sent him a text message saying “you deserve to die” which is being investigated by police.”

    So nothing in the news explains the poll result which seems caused by a lag effect from last year, and a reflective mood over the holiday period. Labour will be complacent.

    Centrists are endorsing the direction of the coalition, and registering their disapproval of National’s failure to produce policy responses to our changing world. Labour folk won’t realise this. They will interpret it as approving their inability to produce results. If that persists into winter, Labour will drop in polling then.

    Political analysis continues to be banal. That’s due to the ongoing failure to measure the centrist vote. You dorks out there, start accepting that a third of the electorate in western countries are now non-binary. Pull finger! You can do it, you just need to start trying! Put 30 years of abysmal failure to be honest behind you! Moral corruption need not be terminal!

    • KJT 45.1

      Still indulging your ‘centrist’ fantasy.

      Greens lost votes to Labour, when Labour starting promising more of the Greens, “left wing” policies.
      Not “centrist” policies.

      The “centrist” party, Dunne and co, got done like a dinner, once voters got a good look at them.

      • Dennis Frank 45.1.1

        But your lack of comprehension of centrists isn’t the point. Nobody ever said they think the same. That’s because they don’t. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?

        Leftist green voters shifting between the GP and Labour aren’t centrists. Centrists are voters who do not self-identify with either left or right. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?

        Dunne’s centrists are in the dust-bin of history. Nobody here is going to be impressed by your delusional attempt to make them seem relevant in 2019. The only thing that matters next election is how all parties market themselves to centrists. We will decide the election result on that basis – as we usually do.

        • KJT 45.1.1.1

          Bollocks.

          Elections in New Zealand are decided by a relatively small group of swing voters.

          To claim they are in the centre is just wishful thinking.

          In fact they appear to be a group which is swayed by whatever extremist issue the media decide to highlight.
          Hence the dog whistling “tough on crime” and other appeals to mindless “Journalists”.

          • Dennis Frank 45.1.1.1.1

            You really believe swing-voters aren’t centrist? I’ve never seen anyone advocate that crazy notion before. Good luck with being first cab off the rank!

            • KJT 45.1.1.1.1.1

              National are under no such illusion.

              They spend a fortune on focus groups, to find out what will get potential swing voters to swing.

              Shows they are more likely to be evidence denying extremists, like family first, than the “moderates” you think.

              • Dennis Frank

                Maybe so, but I expect the `gigo’ formula to apply to the design of such groups. Garbage in produces garbage out. Depend who selects the participant, on what basis, but primarily on the questions asked.

                Family First are ultraconservative, therefore more likely to binary than you even. Most conservatives have always been rightists – remember Winston was one. Some Labour voter probably belong to FF but I suspect they would be a small minority.

  43. Simon Louisson 46

    Paula Benefit says poll shows Nats doing “pretty well” https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/02/paula-bennett-says-national-s-doing-pretty-well-despite-disastrous-poll.html
    – probably as well as Nats did with their “pretty legal” Eminem rip-off

    • Dennis Frank 46.1

      But she’s not wrong if her comment was directed at the poll rating instead of the strategic implication. Does anyone really expect a Nat/Lab politician to factor in deep context? Worry that they have dropped into the thirties can be put aside. Standard positive spin on bad news using glass-half-full thinking…

      • Kat 46.1.1

        The Nats were already in the 30’s, if this poll is accurate they have actually gone up. My thoughts are the numbers require more scrutiny and if anything I put Labour ahead of National primarily on the excellent performance of Jacinda Ardern. The policy wonks may have other theory of course, and current policy if successful will certainly have an effect with ex National voters that Labour is now obviously starting to pick up.

        My prediction is National is in for a thumping at the next election regardless whether Bridges, Collins or any other of the current crop is leader.

        • Dennis Frank 46.1.1.1

          Only on internal party polling, which everyone else doesn’t take seriously. I don’t discount the charisma factor, and her performance has been adept some of the time, but my take is that voters are endorsing the coalition’s trajectory, and admonishing National for failing to provide an adaptive response – particularly on climate change. I agree Nat prospects look dire.

          • Robert Guyton 46.1.1.1.1

            Todd Muller’s tanking. Rod Oram’s chiding the poor sap.

            • Dennis Frank 46.1.1.1.1.1

              Oram’s critique was quite savage, eh? Well perhaps incisive is a better way of putting it. Cutting! Rightly so – I thought he did an excellent job. Made toddy seem lukewarm, when he’s trying ever so hard to be hot…

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