Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour surges

Written By: - Date published: 9:18 pm, September 27th, 2016 - 191 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

roy-morgan-september-2016

I know that we should not celebrate good polls but given all the attacks by the usual suspects on Andrew Little after the last Colmar Brunton poll result I thought this particular Roy Morgan poll should be given a bit of air time.

National is down 4.5% to 41.5%.  Labour is up 8% to 33.5% which is more in line with its last UMR poll result.  The Greens are down to 12% and NZ First is down to 8.5%.

Of course this does show how unstable the Roy Morgan poll is.  But I look forward to a continuous beat up by the media about how National is doomed.

191 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour surges”

  1. save nz 1

    45.5 Labour/Greens against Nat 41.5

    Looking good.

    Wadable rivers and faecal contamination of water, a taste of things to come under Natz…

    • Labour_voter 1.1

      While this is great news fellows, Roy Morgan poll is so unreliable. We need to monitor the main stream polls for the next few months to see whether this trend is entrenched.

    • Bearded Git 1.2

      Roy Morgan smoothed over the last 5 polls looks like this:

      Lab/Gr/NZF 50.0
      Nats 45.8
      Nats/Act/MP 48.1

      This is probably a more accurate reflection of whats going on. National have had it if they poll 46% or less.

  2. Muttonbird 4

    Funny. It was seen as a desperate move by Andrew Little to release Labour’s internal polling.

    Polling which closely matched this poll.

    Is this poll therefore also a desperate move by Labour???

  3. Kelly-Ned 5

    Awesome news. Now to keep consolidating.

  4. nzsage 6

    Great to see but let’s not get too excited Roy Morgan polls are notoriously unreliable.

  5. adam 7

    So I see my comment about the usual trolls has some validation, they are running scared….

  6. Colonial Viper 8

    i heard last month that the Roy Morgan is a rogue, has clearly undependable methodology and is subject to spurious results that swing wildly and unreliably.

    Or did it suddenly get better since then?

    • Muttonbird 8.1

      Don’t worry mate. Labour is still shit. Go back to sleep.

    • mickysavage 8.2

      Read my comment and in particular:

      “Of course this does show how unstable the Roy Morgan poll is. But I look forward to a continuous beat up by the media about how National is doomed.”

      And also note how this result matches the recent UMR result.

      And how about lefties celebrate good results instead of joining the right and damning Labour whenever the poll result is bad.

      • Colonial Viper 8.2.1

        if Labour get rewarded for their watered down middle class focussed centrism they’ll never deliver what the nation needs.

        • mickysavage 8.2.1.1

          So you prefer National’s free market neoliberalism because Labour isn’t quite pure enough?

          • Colonial Viper 8.2.1.1.1

            Just look at where choosing the lesser of two evils has led the western world over the last few decades.

            • mickysavage 8.2.1.1.1.1

              So do we give up? Let the right take over because they will wreck the place and so what?

              • Colonial Viper

                I’ve given up on Labour, yes.

                Put another way, your leg is rotting off due to gangrene but you keep getting prescribed with panadol because its better than nothing.

                Shall we continue swallowing?

                • yet you use the same logic to explain why trump is your man mr 5ppm – the hypocrisy is smelly like rot.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    I don’t get to vote in the US elections, I do however get to say who would be less shite for NZ and that is Trump.

                    I’m happy to say that about Labour too if the consistency makes you happier – in some areas, Labour would be less shite for NZ than National.

                  • Muttonbird

                    CV’s wanting the temp to rise in Dunedin. That’s why he attacks the MOU.

              • Chris

                The right have taken over regardless of the result.

            • North 8.2.1.1.1.2

              So crawling up Trump’s narcissistic, spoilt, racist, misogynistic, wide boy’s arse is the way to correct things then CV ?

              • Colonial Viper

                Haha do I detect your anal fixation mate

                Like I said, I don’t get a vote in the US elections, and here in NZ I refuse to support stuck in the 20th century neoliberal political parties.

          • Colonial Viper 8.2.1.1.2

            Also I have no taste for Labour’s free market free trade neoliberalism either.

          • srylands 8.2.1.1.3

            “So you prefer National’s free market neoliberalism..?”

            Are you taking the piss?

        • Muttonbird 8.2.1.2

          How odd. You say Little is centrist, yet he dismissed centrism just this week. According to most baffled commentators Little is too concerned with micro-constituencies at the expense of the general centre, previously seduced by Key’s new mate, Helen Clark.

          That’ll not stop CV seeing Andrew Little as a rightwing monster though.

          • Colonial Viper 8.2.1.2.1

            As a middling white collar centrist who want last to the end of 2017, but yeah, approx same thing

          • alwyn 8.2.1.2.2

            “Little is too concerned with micro-constituencies ”
            Of course he is concerned with micro-constituencies. One in particular.
            The people who think he is competent to be the New Zealand Prime Minister. That is about as “micro” as you can get.

        • Michelle 8.2.1.3

          Viper nothing can be worse than what we have now, the greed, the lies, the incompetence, the loss of privacy, the over regulating, the transfer of our assets to the rich and the growing inequalities doesn’t sound like a brighter future the one we were all promised

      • I agree Micky ,Where do these plonker come from ,

      • Stuart Munro 8.2.3

        The thing we’re really missing is long Herald columns on how the Gnats need to lift their game and how a lousy leader like Key can improve by moving to the centre.

    • Infused 8.3

      Just good when it shows the left doing good

      • Paul 8.3.1

        The trolls arrive.

      • Colonial Viper 8.3.2

        Confirmation bias makes life a happier more agreeable place, but even I know that the massive ups and downs of this poll during a month of just more of the same political grind is not warranted.

        Safe to say that Labour has strengthened somewhat and National has weakened somewhat, but not by the large absolute numbers suggested.

    • Honestly this was my first thought too, lol.

    • righty right 8.5

      i ve always said lololololo Roy Morgans polls are the most accurate reliable trust worthy polls out there Roy employs the most up to date methodology
      lets give thanks to the gods of cow shit and explosive diarrhea

      • Actually until very recently (ie. July) RM was on trend with no major rogues. (and unlike every other polling company, they poll regularly)

        This is a believable dive for National, if further polling bears it out. It could be a rogue, or it could be reflective of a change in trend.

  7. Muttonbird 9

    It’s well known the National government’s performance is wedded to John Key’s performance so perhaps this slump, according to Roy Morgan, is down to Key not doing so well on the international stage.

    • Well , I dunno so much ,… Key was booed twice in quick succession not so long ago at some very public venues – a ruby league match and the LGBT festival. And while that in itself isnt necessarily a huge indicator , there are now a lot of people up and down this country who are under no illusion about John Key….

      I cite Northland which Winston Peters comfortably took from an assumed ‘ safe ‘ National seat for example…

      Just how much of this popularity thing about Key is a media / PR construct remains to be seen. There are a lot of hurting people in this country now as a direct result of National party policy.

      • Muttonbird 9.1.1

        Agree. The many people who’ve had their dreams crushed by this government know what is happening, but are they aware there is an alternative?

        You are right to point to Key’s many recent defeats because in the course of history they will be relevant:

        Northland
        the Lockwood flag
        TPPA
        brown-nosing Helen Clark’s UN bid
        the UN security council speakamathon
        surge in NZ crime
        surge in NZ homelessness

        I was disturbed yesterday how easily one of his senior ministers dismissed Duncan Garner’s questions on the Vancouver tax yesterday. All she (Bennett) had to do was say she’d just come out of a meeting and hadn’t seen the data.

        Classic Key there. Hopefully the many people under housing stress will see through it.

        • righty right 9.1.1.1

          dont forget explosive diarrhea

        • alwyn 9.1.1.2

          “brown-nosing Helen Clark’s UN bid”.
          What on earth are you talking about? He is trying to help Helen because he thinks it would be useful for New Zealand.
          Unfortunately the people at the UN who have seen her in action aren’t at all keen on the idea.
          Still John has helped her meet some major political figures. He introduced her to Theresa May and to Barack Obama. That must have been a thrill for her.

      • mikesh 9.1.2

        With “Northland” Winston spotted the fact that NZF scored 4000 odd party votes, in 2014, without even fielding a candidate, and was smart enough to figure from that that the seat was far from safe. Otherwise he would not have run.

        • WILD KATIPO 9.1.2.1

          And I guess conversely ,… National either didn’t spot that or they were too cocksure of themselves to bother standing an experienced candidate – hence the unprecedented moves by Key et all to put in a showing for Northland – either way it reflected poorly on Dildo Joyce who was campaign manager….

  8. Jan Rivers 10

    Wasn’t it the Colmar Brunton poll which was the reason for the UMR data release which had National on 48% and Labour on 26% not the Roy Morgan Poll?

    • mickysavage 10.1

      CB had National at 48%. The UMR had them at 40% which honestly seemed to be too low but this RM backs it up …

      • Brendon Harre 10.1.1

        1 in 20 polls are rogue. So the question is was the CB result rogue or accurate? Little and UMR believed it was rogue and showed evidence for National doing much worse and Labour doing better. Now we have another piece of evidence from the RM indicating National doing worse and Labour doing better. But RM polls fluctuate. So we probably need a few more results to be sure that the public are changing their minds about Key, National etc.

        Also in some ways it doesn’t matter so much what the polls say. They are all so close. What they indicate is with hard work, good policies and good campaigning the Green/Labour left wing block can do well next year.

  9. RedLogix 11

    It really doesn’t matter what the absolute poll numbers are and how they vary between each pollster. As long as each one sticks to the same methodology each time, then the most significant thing is how each one is trending.

    Crucially what we need to know is if ALL the various polls are trending in the same direction by similar amounts.

    If not, then it’s probably just noise.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Swordfish is pretty confident that the polls this year show National down in general and the so-called “Oppo block” up.

      • Craig H 11.1.1

        I’ve heard of 3 consecutive UMR polls trending in favour of Labour/Greens and away from National.

        • Paul 11.1.1.1

          Good

        • alwyn 11.1.1.2

          And when is Andrew going to release them?
          If they are so good he will obviously want the public to know.
          On the other hand if they are kept secret we can reasonably assume that they show he is really in the crap.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1.1.2.1

            Yes, because letting right wing trolls set his agenda is sure to be a winning strategy. I wonder why no-one thought of it before.

      • RedLogix 11.1.2

        Which is what I imagined was the case; but I’ll happily defer to the imitable swordfish.

  10. Craig H 12

    I like this poll because it confirms my biases!

    More seriously, this is in line with multiple UMR polls, not just one.

    • Worth waiting to see if the trend is confirmed by the more conservative polls though, even if they disagree with the exact numbers.

      Does look like the people saying RM was going downhill are possibly right if not though.

  11. Pat 13

    if the volatility of all polls recently should have taught us anything it would be to wait for a consistent trend to emerge

    • mickysavage 13.1

      Agreed but Labour got smashed over because of the results of one poll. So what are we meant to do? And besides there are two poll results her suggesting that National’s support has been hit big time.

      • Infused 13.1.1

        More than one

      • Pat 13.1.2

        and two previous showed unrealistic support for the gov…..what are we meant to do?…wait for the consistent trend before we beat/talk ourselves up, after all they are not the poll that counts in any case

      • alwyn 13.1.3

        You did see the comment in the poll that they were the lowest National has been since September 2013. That is exactly 3 years ago. Now who was it that was re-elected the following year?
        With the Labour Party’s leader ability to mess things up I can’t see the surge lasting. They have him hidden away overseas at the moment. I don’t think they will be able to keep him out of sight for another 12 months, which is probably what is needed.

  12. Paul 14

    No trolls yet….
    They must have gone to regroup and get their spin/lies/lines from Farrar, Hooton and Williams.

    • Muttonbird 14.1

      Farrar will be spiking the drinks of young Nats. Hooton will be pouring over the latest school zone boundary changes. And Williams will be sobbing between Rachael McGregor’s naked legs.

      • Groundhog 14.1.1

        Farrar will have already known. He’s too good not to have smelt any change (if there is one). MS is correct, there are potential winds of change, but the RM is notoriously fickle.

    • Sam C 14.2

      No trolls yet? Nope, I’ll leave you guys to bask in the glory of the poll you said last time was rigged and blatantly wrong.

      Bring on the change of Government next year! This poll suggests the inevitable landslide is on the way.

      Yay!

    • Incognito 14.3

      Because of Daylight Saving the TC instructions and script arrive an hour later.

    • Bearded Git 14.4

      @ Paul LOL

  13. While Key may be ‘ popular’,… Key is not the entirety of the National party. And it reflects in his Ministers rating among certain of the business / banking community as was shown in the NZ Herald today. The implication was there could be some reshuffling.

    But the problem is with playing political musical chairs in the neo liberal camp is that the sows ear remains just that : a sows ear.

    • Craig H 15.1

      Agreed. Also, Key’s net approval ratings are negative and have been for some time. I gather he is below Helen Clark at the same stage of Labour’s third term last time (2007), so maybe we are finally getting some traction.

      • Also remember that Helen Clark at that time was being attacked in full spin mode and criticised as an arrogant dictator that couldn’t be trusted, so really John Key is much less popular because the media isn’t blindly repeating attack lines against the PM this time.

        • mosa 15.1.1.1

          Yeah Matthew in 2006-2008 it was the” Nanny State” and” Ditch the Bitch and to quote John Key it was communism by stealth.

          Key has never had to face the onslaught and vicious campaign that the last Labour government endured in fact since being in office he has encouraged this type of attack through Cameron Slater to smear his opponents.

          Its been a dream run for the National party.

  14. Lanthanide 16

    This result pretty much confirms that 50%+ National result from a few polls ago was an outlier. There was nothing at the time to justify such a massive peak (despite Roy Morgan’s feeble attempts to pin it on the 1B infrastructure fund that sunk without a trace 3 days after it was announced), and nothing since then that would justify this massive drop if that were to be a true result.

    I suspect this one is probably also an outlier, to a lesser extent, in the other direction.

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      So true National number around 44% to 45%? That seems about right to me. However it seems that Labour’s UMR internal polling has had National lower than that for a while now.

      • Lanthanide 16.1.1

        My feeling is 43% and Labour on 30-31%.

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1

          Yep I can buy those numbers.

          And I would put Greens on 11% actual, and the numbers of “don’t know/won’t say” quite high.

          However, I would say that for this Government, Sept/Oct/Nov will prove to be the low water mark for National’s 3rd term.

          • Brendon Harre 16.1.1.1.1

            Why will this be the low point for the Nats CV? What will change so that the public think better of John Key and the Nats? Is this assertion based on some logic or is it what you hope will happen? Also I see it is your assertion further down the thread that if the Nats go into coalition with NZ First that will set them up for a 5th term. Is there some underlying logic to that assertion or is this another ‘hope’ you have.

            • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1.1.1

              Wait and see. Happy to be proven wrong. However, the NATs will be pulling out all the stops from February next year, and they will be able to see an opportunity to get 5 terms if they can get out of their own way and work with NZ First.

              • Groundhog

                National are getting any uncomfortable business out of the way in 2016. Key learn’t politics from the master (Helen Clark), and 2017 will be portrayed as a contest between competence (National) and the scary left. Joyce used that narrative this morning on the radio with Jacinda Ardern, and she bit hard.

                • Colonial Viper

                  National are getting any uncomfortable business out of the way in 2016.

                  EXACTLY

                  Thank grod someone gets the National game plan.

                  More bad stinking news will be dumped on the nation’s doorstep over the next month or two to clear the way for National’s 2017 re-election campaign.

                  Hence I feel that this period will be “low water mark” for National’s polling, and they will recover next year.

          • righty right 16.1.1.1.2

            if national cant win mt roskill there toast given they won the party vote last election mt roskill is a marginal electorate that will determine the outcome of the 2017 election

            • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1.2.1

              There is merit to your perspective. However Goff had an 8100 majority last election which is sizeable. Normally that would make Mt Roskill a secure seat.

              However yes, when you do at the figures, you can see that National Party voters make up most of that majority.

              In my mind it comes down to whether or not National have someone well known and credible to put up in that seat as their candidate.

              • Groundhog

                I grew up in Mt Roskill, and my mother still lives in the electorate. It is working class Labour territory, and has virtually always been. If National win by-election in Mt Roskill, Labour are toast.

                • Colonial Viper

                  In your view, how did National get 2,000 more party votes than Labour last election.

                  • Groundhog

                    Mt Rokill isn’t unique in that. There are many Labour voters who want a National government, but can’t stomach a local National MP.

      • righty right 16.1.2

        polls are bullshit nz people love john key

    • Craig H 16.2

      Quite possibly – here’s an older story from July regarding a secret UMR poll discussed by Matthew Hooton, presumably a National one:

      http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/07/14/matthew-hooton-on-secret-umr-poll/

      N 42
      L 28
      G 16
      NZF 10

      This shows the Nats sliding quite some time ago, and it’s more about where the votes are going between the other 3 biggest parties.

  15. mosa 17

    To get a change of government Labour must take support from National thats a fact even with MMP and the MOU and move into the centre and consolidate and climb to match National and move ahead to a position of strength and authority.

    Looks like Labour is attracting support in this poll from the Greens and NZF which looks good as Labours numbers have climbed closer to the government but its the overall trend in these polls especially in the next 6 months that will show if Labour can defy the mindset of a fourth term for the government that is already being sold as a forgone conclusion.

    If Labour can climb to match National on these numbers and stay there and Nationals polling tells them the gap has narrowed then it may have an effect on the timing of the next election and the sweeteners offered in the next budget.

    • Sam C 17.1

      Yeah. Not so much. Did anyone see Little on Brekkie Telly this morning in Gisborne? His specs were fogged up and he looked like a drowned rat. If he can’t even organise a brolly and a raincoat, how can he organise being the next PM? The bloke is a clown.

      • Wild Katipo 17.1.1

        Doesn’t have enough of that good old fashioned slickness and sleaze for your liking?

        That’s what Keys there for, for folk like you to vote for… mind you , I notice the little fella’s hairlines receding somewhat these days… and I swear ,… the little fella’s nose has grown over the last 9 years as well…

        • Groundhog 17.1.1.1

          Have you ever met Key? I doubt it. Key is genuinely likeable. He is relaxed and affable. He has been underestimated (as Clark was) for 10 years, and has seen off how many Opposition leaders? The irrational dislike (bordering on racist rhetoric in your post) towards Key is directly proportional to his success and his detractors frustration at that success.

          • WILD KATIPO 17.1.1.1.1

            Funny how you say Key is ‘affable ,like-able ‘ …I find that quite amusing , because that certainly hasn’t been the attitude demonstrated to any outside of his ‘particular’ worldview or social set…now then ,… just what did he say about NZ workers again?… lazy , drug addled ?… and about those who ‘ chose’ to be poor… seems he cant really correlate the difference between the oppressive effects of his policy’s and just why they happen to be poor in Keys ‘ brighter future’ …and his pig shit deliberate ignorance of working people and who they really are is glaringly obvious you smug shit.

            And if John Key actually gave a shit he wouldn’t have introduced the 90 day trial period , would he now , gorm?

            He cant even put his weight behind abolishing zero hour contracts – Unite union had to campaign for that , now , didn’t they .

            Key would rather have whole family’s in poverty working their bloody arse off for a shitty minimal wage doing two jobs because that means his big business mates get to pocket what should have gone into feeding those working poor family’s children , eh Einstein.

            Seems like the Double Dipper from Dipton has the same sort of disease, – as well as social climber wannabe and liar Paula Bennett – expounding the same sort of obnoxious attitudes to any who happen to be poorer than them,

            Until that day when you stop kidding yourself and realize whole family’s sleeping in vans and garages is a deliberate result of your hero Keys policy’s will be the day you have something worth saying.

            And btw – where did I mention ‘race’ ?… are you ignorant of the term Pinocchio – used to define a liar whose nose grows when he/ she lies?

            Does everything have to be spelt out to you ?

            • Groundhog 17.1.1.1.1.1

              You appear to be suffering from a number of delusions. And from a rather irrational hatred of one side of the political divide. Have you given any serious consideration to why, if you are even remotely right, has Key and his government won 3 straight elections with increasing popularity? Are you fellow NZ’ers really that stupid? Or, as I suspect, you’re just plain wrong.

        • DISTURBED 17.1.1.2

          WK That little guy with receding hair (Key) I call “snakes” will say about his balding head, “oh you cant have hair and brains together.”

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 17.1.2

        A vacuous statement from Sam C there! What a stupid way of rating anyone – taking pathetic to the next level…

      • Lanthanide 17.1.4

        Sam C is (unfortunately) right to point this out.

        Personal presentation of the leader is important. That’s why Helen had her official portrait photoshopped, to give her straight white teeth and a nice haircut, and get rid of the worst of her wrinkles etc. It’s rather ridiculous if you tour Parliament and see the official historical photos of the members of each government, headed by the PM. In 1999-2002 she has a real photo of her. For 2002-2005 and 2005-2008, she’s got this photoshopped one, and it looks like a different person entirely, when contrasted against her 1999-2002 photo.

        It’s why Phil Goff foolishly thought to dye his hair brown while he was the leader.

        Little’s poor personal appearance on some outings ultimately gets mixed in with people’s general impression of him. Very few people would come out and say what Sam C has said in this post, nor would they fail to vote for him because he was wet one time on TV, but it all stirs around in the general impressions people have of the leader and how competent they are.

        It’s an easy thing to fix, so it should be fixed.

        • alwyn 17.1.4.1

          “Helen had her official portrait photoshopped”
          What do you mean, “photoshopped”? She assured us at the time that it was a genuine photo and that no alterations had been made.
          You aren’t trying to tell us that she lied about it are you?
          Surely not. St Helen would never have done anything of the sort.

          It is a sensible thing to do though. Look at how Norman Kirk got taken seriously when he got a proper haircut and good suits.
          Lange did the same and it made an enormous difference.

          • Lanthanide 17.1.4.1.1

            “What do you mean, “photoshopped”? She assured us at the time that it was a genuine photo and that no alterations had been made.”

            Citation.

            • alwyn 17.1.4.1.1.1

              I have just noticed this. Sorry for the delay.
              I can’t find on line a statement by Helen saying this, so perhaps my memory is misleading me.
              The closest I found was a statement by the photographer claiming that there hadn’t been any photo-shopping and the only things that were done were that he used careful lighting and that she wore a little more makeup that usual.
              Quite how that would straighten her teeth was not clear.

        • WILD KATIPO 17.1.4.2

          Absolute rubbish.

          Are you trying to tell me Winston Churchill who was obese, relatively old and often drunk needed to have his image swept up?

          And so what if someones caught out in the rain ? It RAINS A LOT IN NZ.

          The original post was majoring on minors . And anyone with half a brain is more interested in what the person has to say than how they look.

          The original poster was more concerned with scoring points in trying to ridicule Little on childish drivel than providing any real critique of the mans policy’s. Maybe the persons spent far too much time reading fashion magazines and paparazzi articles.

  16. Because the main post doesn’t have it…

    Translating the indication from this poll into numbers in the house, assuming all parties currently in parliament win electorate seats:

    Labour (41) + Greens (15) + NZ First (10) = 66 government MPs

    UF (1) + Māori (2) = 3 cross-bench MPs (They might want in to a govt too if the general election comes out roughly like this, but functionally it doesn’t matter if they do or not- NZF is still needed to pass legislation)

    National (51) + ACT (1) = 52 opposition MPs

    121 MPs total (UF is the overhang, so you can subtract them if you want to assume they lose their electorate)

    Assuming no micro parties win any electorates, this changes to:

    Labour (42) + Greens (15) + NZ First (11) = 68 govt MPs

    National = 52 opposition MPs

    Assuming MANA wins an electorate seat doesn’t allow Labour and the Greens an option to bypass NZF unless they do better than this at the general election. (56+2+1+1 = 60/122)

    As always, polls aren’t accurate enough to assume this is anything more than an indication and the trend is what’s important, but it is useful to look it at in terms of “what kind of a majority would this result give if it were in the general elections.”

    I used http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator for those who are curious to try their own assumptions.

    • Sam C 18.1

      Yeah, the Left “coalition of constituencies” are going to hose in next election. Put your placards down now, it is a foregone conclusion.

    • Chris 18.2

      Or NZF go with the nats and it’s three more years…

      • Lanthanide 18.2.1

        But it’s not “three more years”.

        Any National – NZ First government, with NZFirst on 8-10% of the vote, would look very different from the current governing arrangement.

        It would not surprise me if Winston insisted that the Maori Party stay out of government, as well as Act and UF, for example.

        And that’s really the takeaway from these, and other recent polls, I think.

        The current National governing arrangement is likely done at the next election, whether that means a new PM or not.

        • Colonial Viper 18.2.1.1

          Any National – NZ First government, with NZFirst on 8-10% of the vote, would look very different from the current governing arrangement.

          Exactly.

          And it would set National up for a fifth term.

          • North 18.2.1.1.1

            National a fifth term ? Well here’s hoping CV…….if only to answer your wrecking ball bitterness. On the other hand the best answer to your ‘distress’ might be to grow up a tad.

        • Brendon Harre 18.2.1.2

          Good comment. I think their is enough evidence showing that National cannot govern with the current group of support partners and will need NZ First to back the Nats not Labour/Greens if it will continue to be in government.

          But then the public mood could shift again in the next 12 months, either with or against the trend -changing the support partner equation again.

          Change is coming I think -the status quo is over…..

        • Draco T Bastard 18.2.1.3

          Any National – NZ First government, with NZFirst on 8-10% of the vote, would look very different from the current governing arrangement.

          And, just like the National/NZ1st government of the 1990s would collapse in less than 2 years and probablt in less than one which means we’d then either have a new general election or Labour/Greens/NZ1st step up to the plate and govern without National.

          IMO, NZ1st should stay well away from going into coalition with National.

          • Scott 18.2.1.3.1

            NZ First should stay well away from Parliament!

            • Draco T Bastard 18.2.1.3.1.1

              No, it’s National that should stay away from parliament as they’re a bunch of psychopaths. :mrgreen:

          • alwyn 18.2.1.3.2

            “just like the National/NZ1st government of the 1990s would collapse in less than 2 years”
            You obviously must have observed an election that no-one else did. The 1996-1999 National led Government went to full term. It certainly didn’t collapse.
            It was only the New Zealand First Party that split down the middle. The Maori seat members decided they were tired of being treated like dirt by their leader.

            • Lanthanide 18.2.1.3.2.1

              The National-led government went full term. The National-NZFirst government, which is what he actually said, did not.

      • I would consider that highly unlikely given how NZF is currently positioning itself on policy and talking about the government, but it isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility I suppose.

        Much more likely they’re just refusing to commit to supporting anyone pre-election because they believe it would give them more leverage with Labour, who they have a better record at forming governments with, and who their policies more closely align with.

        I’d even consider it a better probability that NZF supports Labour and the Greens into government (or abstains on confidence/supply) but then stays on the cross-benches and votes their conscience on bills than that they support the Nats. (If we didn’t know that Winston loves being a minister, I would actually say that strategically not being exactly in government but being needed for every bill is actually a stronger position for NZF)

        But Lanth is right that if they did go with the Nats, it would be a drastically different government than the current one. It would probably need to be more centrist, and would have NZF in significant ministerial posts, and we would get a lot less liberal policy out of National than we do currently, because NZF wouldn’t support it. (For example, no punts on anything even resembling a republic)

      • Leftie 18.2.3

        No, Winston won’t go with National. Matthew Whitehead is correct when he said “Much more likely they’re just refusing to commit to supporting anyone pre-election because they believe it would give them more leverage with Labour, who they have a better record at forming governments with, and who their policies more closely align with.”

        Andrew Little: “Let the voters decide, but we are the party of change, the Greens are a party of change, that’s what we are committed to, lets see what the voters turn up at the parliament and if we are in a position to do so, we will talk to those interested in fundamentally changing what the story is now.. We know who those parties of change are, right now.”

        “They’ve [Maori Party] shackled themselves to the National government for the last 8 years, they are as responsible as any National mp for the failure of people to get affordable houses, a decent education and all those other issues.. They’re not, right now if I think about the radar, about the parties of change, they are not on it”

        Winston Peters said “We want dramatic economic and social change to regain what this country used to have to number one number 2 first world status as a world economic and social performer, we’ve lost that, and we haven’t given up hope of getting it back again”

        Waatea 5th Estate – Labour vs NZ First – the fight for Maori votes

        <a href="http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/08/30/waatea-5th-estate-labour-vs-nz-first-the-fight-for-maori-votes/

    • weka 18.3

      How about a shift that resulted in

      L/G/Mp/Mana 61 seats

      NZF 8 seats

      N/Act 51 seats

      No UF

      🙂

      • Chris 18.3.1

        Certainly not out of the question. Brave of you to suggest the Mp could buddy up with Labour. Could very well be on the cards I say.

        • weka 18.3.1.1

          Can’t see any reason why the Mp couldn’t support Labour with a confidence and supply agreement.

          • Colonial Viper 18.3.1.1.1

            Except that Labour have made it clear that they intend to take all the Maori Seats and see the Maori Party extinguished out of existence next election.

          • Lanthanide 18.3.1.1.2

            I think it comes down to whether the MP MPs (annoying acronym) would be given any ministerial responsibility, or not.

            Labour will obviously want to keep them cordial, in case they need to rely on their votes in future years. But would they give them any ministerial postings, or would the Labour maori caucus demand to keep them all for themselves? National don’t have that same sort of tension in their own caucus so it’s easier for them to give trinkets to the MP MPs.

            • weka 18.3.1.1.2.1

              True, but if it were the difference between Labour forming govt or not, that’s a pretty strong incentive to be inclusive.

              I use Mp not MP.

              • Lanthanide

                Sure, I was envisioning an outcome where the Mp are purely an optional bolt-on for a Labour-led government. I think the Mp would only agree to C&S if they got some ministerial action, and I’m not sure that the Labour Maori MPs would be happy with that.

      • Sure, that’s doable.

        All it takes to get in the general neighbourhood is to assume a couple more electorate wins for the Māori bloc and about a 2-3 point shift from National to Labour and the Greens. (it’s easier if the shift is to the Greens, but more likely it would be split)

        This scenario is a .5 shift from Others and a 2.5 shift from the National Party from the RM poll to bump the greens up to 15%, and an assumption that Mana gains one electorate seat and the Maori Party gain 2 extra, for 3 total.

        Once you do that, it’s irrelevant whether you lose UF and ACT.

        Labour (41) + Greens (18) = 59 core government MPs

        MANA (1) + Māori (3) + NZ First (10) + UF (1) = 15 Cross Bench/additional government MPs

        National Party (48) + ACT (1) = 49 Opposition MPs

        123 total MPs.

        Under such a counterfactual, Labour and the Greens could pass bills in three likely ways- with NZF, with MANA and Māori Party support, or with Māori and UF support. (it works equally well with the assumption that the Māori Party wins only 1 electorate iirc)

        Chris’ assumption that it’s brave is interesting. The Greens are the party in Parliament that traditionally best matches the Māori Party’s voting record, so it’s actually quite natural that they would prefer to be in a Labour-Green coalition, if they can overcome the historical bad blood with Labour. They have made comments to the effect of that they would be part of every government going forward back when they first allied with National, and Marama Fox has said similar things about being able to work with Labour recently, (I believe she phrased it slightly more colourfully 😉 ) so I expect that’s still their plan.

        The issue is whether Labour would cut them a second-rate deal for being a universal coalition partner like UF is, or whether they would force them onto the cross benches due to bad blood, but Little’s comments about wanting as inclusive a government as possible suggest they would be open to include the Māori Party if negotiations are actually done in good faith on both sides, so if the Greens and/or Labour can pull off a 3-point shift from the indicated support in this poll to the general election and either (a) MANA wins a seat, (b) the hair loses Ohariu, or (c) the hologram loses Epsom, that’s a real possibility. Just remember, 3 points is a lot in politics.

        • weka 18.3.2.1

          NZF’s vote would have to drop for it to work, which seems the least plausible shift.

          In your scenario wouldn’t Nact form govt with NZF, Mp, UF? Which brings up the issue of how NZ governments get formed and who had what rights when it could go either way.

          I’m on my phone, will have a play with calculator later.

          • Matthew Whitehead 18.3.2.1.1

            NZF’s vote doesn’t need to drop for them to not be necessary to form a government. It’s equally plausible that the gain in support comes National, or simply people who weren’t likely voters previously. (which looks like it coming from everyone else, because we never get the “unlikely voters” or “I’ll vote, but I don’t know who for yet” numbers included)

        • weka 18.3.2.2

          I posted a scenario below with the numbers on how L/G could govern without NZF.

          Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour surges

        • Chris 18.3.2.3

          “The Greens are the party in Parliament that traditionally best matches the Māori Party’s voting record, so it’s actually quite natural that they would prefer to be in a Labour-Green coalition, if they can overcome the historical bad blood with Labour.”

          Absolutely. I said brave because suggesting even the possibility on here brings vitriol at insane levels, which is completely ironic given the Mp are not neo-lib. That vitriol obviously comes from those who’re very close to Labour and are no doubt supporters of what CV said above about blowing the Mp to bits. Really dumb strategy for Labour because you’d think they’d be grateful for the support they very well may need depending on the numbers. Labour wants to punish the Mp but its analysis is flawed when you look at the reasons why the Mp helped prop up the nats. The proper question to ask is whether the Mp are neo-lib and the answer is plainly no. So if even if the Mp see the errors of their ways and pull the pin with Key, Labour’s dumb strategy would be to still punish them for being naive in the past, not because its political values are too foreign from their own. But hey, Labour’s got a strong history in blowing off coalition partners and destroying what little hope of winning they had anyway. Doesn’t look like 2017’s going to be any different. Stupid bastards.

          • Matthew Whitehead 18.3.2.3.1

            Actually the approach Labour has taken to working together with both the Greens and New Zealand First is both new and promising, and makes them look like a government in waiting.

            Labour has been careful to essentially grade their co-operation based on how willing to oppose the government each party has been, so the Māori Party hasn’t been outright attacked like it was under Clark, but Labour is also saying, we’re not sure a vote for them will change the government, so ideally vote for Labour or the Greens. Unlike National, Labour has actually gotten to understand MMP even better in opposition.

            That message may change if the Māori Party actually ever decided to clear up who they’d give preference to if they held the balance of power, but I think like NZF they believe that’s not a winning strategy.

            • Chris 18.3.2.3.1.1

              Can’t disagree with what you’re saying about the Greens and perhaps NZF, but it doesn’t explain Labour’s apparent hatred of the Mp or whether or not they’re going to try to shaft Mana like they did last time. Even with NZF onboard Labour may still need either Mana or the Mp or both so their approach to the Mp is misguided and strategically wrong. The Mp is not the enemy – they’re are/were naive, ill-informed, sell outs or what ever but they’re not the enemy. Labour’s acting as if they are. And if Labour wants to try to fuck Mana over again then that’s equally stupid.

            • Leftie 18.3.2.3.1.2

              Well said Matthew Whitehead.

              “Labour has been careful to essentially grade their co-operation based on how willing to oppose the government each party has been, so the Māori Party hasn’t been outright attacked like it was under Clark, but Labour is also saying, we’re not sure a vote for them will change the government”

              Spot on Matthew.

              Andrew Little: “I’m saying that we will work with parties that are serious about changing the government and getting a change that’s going to give everybody a better chance including Maori.”

              Willy Jackson: “So you’re not ruling out the Maori party?”

              Andrew Little: “Well, I don’t see that… they’ve been shackled to the National government for the last 8 years… I can’t see.. they don’t represent, to me the Maori party don’t represent change, in the end the voters will decide the make up of parliament, but we will campaign, I will campaign on, if you want to change what’s happening now, you got to change the government, so you’ve got to vote for the party of change”

              (Willy Jackson continually interrupted Andrew Little when he spoke.)

              Andrew Little: “Let the voters decide, but we are the party of change, the Greens are a party of change, that’s what we are committed to, lets see what the voters turn up at the parliament and if we are in a position to do so, we will talk to those interested in fundamentally changing what the story is now.. We know who those parties of change are, right now.”

              “They’ve [Maori Party] shackled themselves to the National government for the last 8 years, they are as responsible as any National mp for the failure of people to get affordable houses, a decent education and all those other issues.. They’re not, right now if I think about the radar, about the parties of change, they are not on it”

              Winston Peters said “We want dramatic economic and social change to regain what this country used to have to number one number 2 first world status as a world economic and social performer, we’ve lost that, and we haven’t given up hope of getting it back again”

              Waatea 5th Estate – Labour vs NZ First – the fight for Maori votes

              <a href="http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/08/30/waatea-5th-estate-labour-vs-nz-first-the-fight-for-maori-votes/

              Judging by what Winston Peter’s said, quite frankly, anyone who still thinks Winston Peters will support this National government just isn’t listening.

  17. Frank Macskasy from the Daily Blog has some interesting statistics regarding John Keys waning popularity. Well worth a read. It may indicate the changing mood among voters.

    ‘The slow dismantling of a Prime Minister – downward’ … – The Daily Blog May 25th 2016

    This site wont let me post the link for some reason , so the above will have to suffice.

    Here’s another try then :

    thedailyblog.co.nz/…/the-slow-dismantling-of-a-prime-minister-downward-slide-conti..

      • Brendon Harre 19.2.1

        Frank is right. The worm has turned. Key is not the political force he once was. The glib smiles, selfies, tom foolery are no longer working. His inaction on too many fronts has turned that superficial niceness that once was a strength to his biggest weakness -he is seen more and more as ineffectual and a poor leader, unable to effectively manage the major challenges the country faces.

        The housing crisis has been his Waterloo. He denied this was a problem for too long, did nothing effective to deal with it and now it is too late. As Frank said in May housing is like a behemoth super tanker that cannot be turned around quickly. Well it is nearly October and we are one year out from the election. It is too late for Key -he has been exposed. He is the emperor with no clothes….

        • Wild Katipo 19.2.1.1

          Exactly. The ‘ market’ doesn’t have a social conscience or contract , therefore the neo liberals foolishness ends up entrapping them by their own ideology.They have no answers for the inevitable devolution of a society that is the direct result and consequence of their small govt , ‘leave it to market forces’ dogma…

          There are very sound reasons for having a regulated economy and one of them is to prevent opportunists from rorting and price gouging in an unethical manner. To the neo liberal it is all ‘business as usual’… until , like Key and his govt , the chickens come home to roost and then those chickens start to become restless.

          And this is what these polls are indicating.

  18. mauī 20

    People waking up possibly, not being gamed anymore by pest free new zealand and funding the rail loop 10 years too late. You cannot fool all the people all the time. Fingers crossed.

  19. Henry Filth 21

    As Harold Wilson once said, “A week is a long time in politics”.

    And there are fifty-plus ‘long times’ until the election.

  20. Keith 22

    Where are all the Nats here who were so recently desperately clinging to the last Colmar Brunton poll like it was an upturned life raft. Sharks are circling the “Team Me” crew!

    Yes RM is all over the place but it’s the overall poll trends is what you look at.

  21. vto 23

    So Key might just lose in spite of silly house price rises which typically deceive the people into believing they are rich and so vote for the incumbent no matter who it is

    The risk for Labour is doing something silly too. A moment of madness where the leader apologises for being a man, or one of the team dumps on the rest, or some such ……… keep calm Labour, keep very calm

    • righty right 23.1

      the best thing every no in can do is get on board national has buckets of money if we want change john boy gone that takes work phone banking door knocking twittering face book that monetary imbalance can be
      countered with numbers feet on the ground

  22. te reo putake 24

    Amazing what a naked man on a rug can do for a party’s popularity. I reckon the go might one of those cheeky fund raising calenders. A tastefully posed front bencher for every month from now till the election. Who wouldn’t want that on the kitchen wall?

  23. Cinny 25

    The outgoing PM went on attack mode last time a poll was released, he looked foolish, singing his own praises

    The incoming PM told us internal polling suggested a different story, and he was correct.

    Will the media give this latest poll any coverage as public opinion continues to drop for the outgoing government? Or will they attempt to suppress this information as it may not sit well with their own networks agendas?

  24. Puckish Rogue 26

    Get out of here with your doom and nay-saying 🙂

  25. weka 28

    Following on from Matthew’s comment above, here’s how it might look,

    Today’s numbers

    • weka 28.1

      And here’s how it might look if National dropped 1%, UF lost their seat, NZF dropped 1%, Labour increased 1%, Greens increased 1%, and Mana gained 1 seat. This would allow a L/G coalition to govern without NZF but using C and S from the Mp and Mana (or whatever arrangement they agree to).

      There is no allowance for margins of error in that, but it’s interesting to consider that we don’t necessarily have to buy into the narrative being pushed that NZF will automatically hold the balance of power.

      • The scenario I gave above doesn’t give National + ACT + UF + NZF enough votes to pass anything, as Labour + Greens + Māori + MANA can pass bills, which by definition means that at least one of those parties would need to be peeled off to form an alternative government. So National would need a five-headed alliance (ie. Nats, ACT, UF, NZF, and the Māori Party) moving in lockstep to govern under any 3% shift towards Labour and the Greens that also gave a seat to MANA. To eliminate that possibility, the coalition parties would need to get 60 seats between them, (and MANA would need to get in ofc) which is a big ask.

        The shift away from NZF you outline is also within the realm of possibility, but I would caution against assuming their numbers will drop based on current performance. NZF has been doing pretty well at making the government look fooling and I’m not sure I see any reason why they’re only sitting on 8% in this poll, other than the traditional variability of polls for medium-sized parties. (although if 8% is real, that’s beginning to approach the point at which they’re a small party again)

        • Richard Rawshark 28.1.1.1

          I think Winstons age and inability to connect with the younger generations is his main barrier in gaining a proper foothold of percentage in NZ.

          He’s popular with his supporter base and he actually does try to do some good, I do think he deserves more seats/say in NZ’s affairs.

          Plus he said hello in Kuala Lumpar once, when I did a full shout out in a busy airport OI Winnie how the fuck are ya! he just similed carried on. Lookin sharp I might say in a dressed for the part kind of way as foreign minister back then I think he was.

          • Colonial Viper 28.1.1.1.1

            I think Winstons age and inability to connect with the younger generations is his main barrier in gaining a proper foothold of percentage in NZ.

            NZ First has a strong and lively youth division

            Plus he said hello in Kuala Lumpar once, when I did a full shout out in a busy airport OI Winnie how the fuck are ya! he just similed carried on. Lookin sharp I might say in a dressed for the part kind of way as foreign minister back then I think he was.

            Ha!

  26. swordfish 29

    Roy Morgans since early 2015:

    L+G = Labour-Green aggregate

    Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP

    Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)

    Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF

    Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)

    Right = Govt Bloc + Cons

    O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)

    (Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)

    …….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G

    2014 General Election
    ………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3

    Roy Morgan Polls

    2015

    Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12

    Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2

    Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2

    Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 ……………. 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……… 2

    May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ……….. 18 ………….. 56 ……….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14

    Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ………… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 ……… 6

    Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 …………. 2 ………… 45 …………. = ……….. 47 ………. 7

    Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ………… 13 ……………. 53 ……….. 15 …………. 53 ……… 6

    Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 ……… 47 ………. 1 ……….. 48 ……… 5

    Oct …..41 ……….. 7 ………..48 ………. 50 ………… 10 ………….. 51 ……….. 11 …………. 52 ………… 4

    Nov ..42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 …………. 4

    Dec …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 …………… 52 ………. 10 ……….. 52 ………… 4

    2016

    Jan …42 …….. 7 ………..48 ………. 47 …….. 6 ………… 51 ……. 9 …….. 52 ……… 3

    Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 …….. 7 ………… 50 ……. 9 …….. 51 ……… 2

    Mar ..42 …….. 9 ………..52 ………. 46 …….. 4 ………… 48 ……. 6 …….. 49 ……… 4

    Apr …41 …….. 13 ………..53 ……… 43 ……. 2 ………… 46 ……. 5 …….. 47 ……… 8

    May ..42 …….. 10 ………..51 ……… 46 …….. 4 ………… 48 …… 6 …….. 48 ……… 4

    Jun ….43 …….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 …….. 1 ………… 46 ……. 3 …….. 47 ……… 7

    Jul …. 37 …….. 7 ………..45 ………. 53 ……. 16 ……… 55 ……….. 18 …….. 55 …….. 10

    Aug …40 …….. 10 ……….50 ………46 …….. 6 ……….. 49 …….. 9 …….. 50 ……… 2

    Sep …46 …….. 9 ………..54 ………. 42 …… 4 ………. 45 …….. 1 ………. 45 ……… 10

  27. Richard Rawshark 30

    Do you all think our dear leader will remain as the leader of the opposition, when common sense once again returns to the people.

    Or will John piss off as soon as he can and we can ridicule everyone who tries to take his place like they and MSN have.

    54-42 is a nice margin.

    and shows what a lying in bed with the devil type farrar is. Rogue poll or meddling?

    • Craig H 30.1

      Key has already says he will retire if he loses an election.

    • righty right 30.2

      we know john key doesn’t like to lose he might shoot through earlier that we think
      rather than face humiliation keep his cv intact also i dont think he would want the blame for a down turn or the property market melt down he would be able say everything was fine when i was running it.

  28. swordfish 31

    Roy Morgans since early 2015:

    L+G = Labour-Green aggregate

    Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP

    Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)

    Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF

    Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)

    Right = Govt Bloc + Cons

    O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)

    (Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)

    …….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G

    2014 General Election
    ………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3

    Roy Morgan Polls

    2015

    Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12

    Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2

    Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2

    Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 ……………. 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……..… 2

    May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ……….. 18 ………….. 56 ……….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14

    Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ………… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 …..…… 6

    Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 …………. 2 …..……… 45 …………. = …….….. 47 ………. 7

    Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ………… 13 ….….…. 53 ……….. 15 ………. 53 …..…… 6

    Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 …..…..… 47 …….…. 1 ………… 48 ….…… 5

    Oct …..41 ……….. 7 ..…..48 ……… 50 ………… 10 ………… 51 ….……. 11 ….……. 52 ………… 4

    Nov ..42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 …………. 4

    Dec …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 …………… 52 ………. 10 ……….. 52 ………..… 4

    2016

    Jan …42 …….. 7 ………..48 ………. 47 …….….. 6 …..……..… 51 ….…… 9 …..…… 52 ………… 3

    Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ..…….. 7 …..…….… 50 ………. 9 ……….. 51 ….…… 2

    Mar ..42 …….. 9 ………..52 ………. 46 ….….. 4 …..……….. 48 …..…. 6 ………. 49 …..…… 4

    Apr …41 …….. 13 ………..53 …….… 43 …….. 2 ……..….… 46 ……… 5 ………. 47 …..…… 8

    May ..42 …….. 10 ………..51 ……… 46 …….. 4 …….…… 48 …..… 6 ……….. 48 ……..… 4

    Jun ….43 …….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 …….. 1 ……….… 46 ……. 3 …….. 47 ……… 7

    Jul …. 37 …….. 7 ………..45 ………. 53 ……. 16 ……… 55 ……….. 18 …….. 55 …….. 10

    Aug …40 …….. 10 ……….50 ………46 …….. 6 ……….. 49 ….….. 9 ……… 50 ….…… 2

    Sep …46 …….. 9 ………..54 ………. 42 …… 4 ………. 45 …….. 1 ………. 45 ……… 10

  29. swordfish 32

    I’m determined to get this table looking ship-shape – even if it takes me 4 or 5 attempts (call me old-fashioned but 10 minute edit just aint long enough). Moderator should feel free to delete earlier efforts above (cheers)

  30. swordfish 33

    Roy Morgans since early 2015:

    L+G = Labour-Green aggregate

    Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP

    Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)

    Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF

    Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)

    Right = Govt Bloc + Cons

    O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)

    (Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)

    …….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G

    2014 General Election
    ………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3

    Roy Morgan Polls

    2015

    Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12

    Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2

    Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2

    Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 …………… 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……..… 2

    May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ….….. 18 ….…..….. 56 …….….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14

    Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ……… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 …..…… 6

    Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 ………. 2 …..….….… 45 …………. = …….….. 47 ………. 7

    Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ………… 13 ….….…. 53 …….….. 15 …….…. 53 …..…… 6

    Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 ………..… 47 ……..…. 1 …….…… 48 ….…… 5

    Oct …..41 …….. 7 ..……..48 …….… 50 …….…… 10 ….……… 51 ….……. 11 ….……. 52 ………… 4

    Nov ..42 …..….. 6 ….……48 …….….. 49 ….……… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 …………. 4

    Dec …42 ………. 6 ….…..48 …….…. 49 …………… 8 ……….… 52 ….……. 10 ……….. 52 ………..… 4

    2016

    Jan …42 ………. 7 ……..…..48 ….….…. 47 ……..….. 6 …..…….… 51 ….…… 9 …..…… 52 ………… 3

    Feb …42 …..….. 6 …………48 …….…. 49 ..……….. 7 …..……..… 50 ………. 9 ……….. 51 ….…… 2

    Mar ..42 ………. 9 …….…..52 …….…. 46 ….……… 4 …..…..….. 48 ……..…. 6 ………. 49 …..…… 4

    Apr …41 …..….. 13 ………..53 …….… 43 ………… 2 ……..…..… 46 ……..… 5 ………. 47 …..…… 8

    May ..42 …..….. 10 ………..51 ….…… 46 …….….. 4 …….…..… 48 ……… 6 ……….. 48 ………… 4

    Jun ….43 …..….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 ……….. 1 …..…….… 46 ………. 3 …..….. 47 …..…… 7

    Jul …. 37 ………. 7 …………45 ….……. 53 …….…. 16 ………… 55 …… 18 ……….. 55 …….. 10

    Aug …40 ………. 10 ……….50 …..……46 ………… 6 ……..….. 49 ……..….. 9 ……… 50 ….…… 2

    Sep …46 …..….. 9 …….…..54 ……….. 42 ……… 4 ………..…. 45 …..….. 1 …….…. 45 ….…… 10

  31. swordfish 34

    Final Draft

    Roy Morgans since early 2015:

    L+G = Labour-Green aggregate

    Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP

    Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)

    Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF

    Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)

    Right = Govt Bloc + Cons

    O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)

    (Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)

    …….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G

    2014 General Election
    ………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3

    Roy Morgan Polls

    2015

    Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12

    Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2

    Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2

    Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 …………… 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……..… 2

    May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ….….. 18 ….…..….. 56 …….….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14

    Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ……… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 …..…… 6

    Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 ………. 2 …..….….… 45 …………. = …….….. 47 ………. 7

    Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ……… 13 .….….….. 53 …….….. 15 …….…. 53 …..…… 6

    Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 ………..… 47 ……..…. 1 …….…… 48 ….…… 5

    Oct …..41 …….. 7 ..……..48 ….….… 50 ………… 10 ….……… 51 ….……. 11 ….……. 52 ………… 4

    Nov ..42 …..….. 6 ….……48 …….….. 49 ….……… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 ………. 4

    Dec …42 ………. 6 ….…..48 ……..…. 49 ………… 8 …….….… 52 ….……. 10 …….….. 52 ……..… 4

    2016

    Jan …42 ………. 7 ……..…..48 ….….…. 47 ……..….. 6 …..……… 51 ….…… 9 …..…… 52 ………… 3

    Feb …42 …..….. 6 …………48 …….…. 49 ..…….….. 7 …..…….… 50 ………. 9 ……….. 51 ….…… 2

    Mar ..42 ………. 9 …….…..52 …….…. 46 ….….…… 4 …..…..….. 48 ……..…. 6 ………. 49 …..…… 4

    Apr …41 …..….. 13 ………..53 …….… 43 ……….… 2 ……..…..… 46 ……..… 5 ………. 47 …..…… 8

    May ..42 …..….. 10 ………..51 ….…… 46 …….…… 4 …….…..… 48 …..…… 6 ……….. 48 ………… 4

    Jun ….43 …..….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 ……..….. 1 …..……… 46 …….…. 3 …..….. 47 …..…..… 7

    Jul …. 37 ………. 7 …………45 ….……. 53 ……..…. 16 ……..…… 55 …….… 18 ….….. 55 ….…… 10

    Aug …40 ………. 10 ……….50 …………46 ….……… 6 ……….….. 49 …….….. 9 ……… 50 ….….… 2

    Sep …46 ……….. 9 …….…..54 ……….. 42 ………… 4 ……………. 45 …..…… 1 ….….. 45 …..…… 10

  32. Richard McGrath 35

    Nats + ACT + NZF = 51%

  33. Foreign waka 36

    I see all the counting of eggs before they hatch… Everybody seem to be so convinced that “their” party will win, that “their” leader is better etc.
    A lot of mention is made about the poor and the very rich, no one is talking about the people who work 2 or more jobs, put their kids through school, don’t complain and get on with it. Because they know that all that talk is cheap and nothing ever will come of it unless you do it your self. And there are plenty of those folks.
    When are we going to see issues addressed such as:
    Welfare – run by Paula Bennett with a dubious emphasis as to whose welfare we are talking about , Steven Joyce, the Novopay minister with a wealth of IT knowledge that has cost the people as mentioned above an arm and a leg, Mr Jonathan Coleman who is happy that “only” very few people die whilst waiting for treatment, Mrs Hekia Parata, believing that constant changing of rules will disguise that it is a means to reduce funding and parents basically are now faced with a semi privatized education system. Crime, another issue that no one wants to talk about as it is now OK to take what your neighbor has because work and saving to get the “stuff” is too hard and takes too long. Those who do so are just bl… idiots from whom these low lives can take what they want.
    So, what has Labour to offer? What are their plans, aspirations, aims? I haven’t heard anything other than they will be different. Different – what does this mean?
    When will there be serious stand on issues that the general public can understand and is inspired by? Where is an idea of what kind of place NZ is suppose to be, inclusive of all the people in it. Please – no more I want, I am entitled, I am more worth then you etc…
    BTW -Don’t wait for NZ First to prop the party, because they wont. They are on the far right by nature and would sooner be part of National – same as the Maori Party.

  34. jcuknz 37

    Until capitalism fails, and not just lefties saying that, the solution is a meld of left and right which appears to be John Keys stance despite the fool actions of his cabinet trying with best of intentions to foul him up.

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