The Conservatives are in the process of self destructing.
ACT, I dunno – anyone heard from ACT lately? It will never be more than the Epsom branch of the National Party.
The Maori Party is going to have to come down on one side or other of a messy debate between iwi and the Nats over Auckland land. There are complications in either direction, I would not bet on them being stronger in the next Parliament.
Winston Peters – will he stand in 2017? Will NZF survive without him? Either way the Nats can’t count on them.
The Nats are running seriously short of coalition partners for the next election. With both Bennett and Collins jostling to replace Key they have their own internal problems as well.
So, there’s a lot of chatter about the Conservative Party at the moment, but the Nats are the only ones who have a reason to care.