National’s Internal Polling Leaked

Written By: - Date published: 7:21 pm, June 30th, 2020 - 45 comments
Categories: Deep stuff, Politics, same old national - Tags: , ,

The good ship Muller has sprung a leak.

Tova O’Brien is reporting that the National caucus has been told today that Labour are on 55% support and they are 21 points back on 34%. That’s one point less than under Simon Bridge’s leadership.

That the caucus is leaking, only weeks after the coup and just two and a bit months before the election, has got to be as worrying for the Tories as the poll result.

Damningly, O’Brien reports that Muller initially refused to release the figures to his colleagues, preferring to show trend graphs instead.

But caucus insisted on being told the facts and were given the numbers verbally.

 

Another tough week at sea for Todd Muller.

A jumping rat and a leak below decks.

And now also featuring an MP who’s drowning not waving:

The proposed charge is actually 0.001c/l, a ten-thousandth of what Simeon says.

 

Gurgle gurgle, Todd, you’re going down.

Turns out posing in front of that upside down flag in te Puna really was a sign of distress!

 

45 comments on “National’s Internal Polling Leaked ”

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  1. Lukazade 1
    30 June 2020 at 7:24 pm

    Hey TRP- don’t let the facts get in the way of your Tory bashing.

    “10 cents per litre”

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12343981

    • In Vino 1.1
      30 June 2020 at 9:31 pm

      And don't let your poor reading skills spoil your point.

      Loose Herald reporting was actually "up to 10 cents per litre." Those words "up to" make it utterly meaningless. 0.001 cent is included in that range….

      More trashy, sensationalist but meaningless reporting. Surprised, anyone?

      • mac1 1.1.1
        30 June 2020 at 9:46 pm

        I was thinking that Auckland could use some of that leakage from the National caucus, but toxicity issues apply.

        It's difficult indeed when the container itself is attacked by its contents.

    • mac1 2.1
      30 June 2020 at 10:02 pm

      Reliable sources have told me that Todd Muller has asked all his MPs to take a test. No, not for Covid-19 or alien reptiles, but a DNA test. He's desperate for some help in boosting the Maori numbers in his top 15. Meanwhile the bottom 15 have packed their bags and are off for greener pastures.

      I wonder what it is like to be a leader who gets told that his former deputy leader is shooting through but only after she's told a comedian first?

    • mary_a 2.2
      1 July 2020 at 1:49 pm

      @ Cinny (2) … seems Todd Muller is being advised by his very own CCP spy MP Jian Yang, re not giving interviews. TM following the leader perhaps?

  3. observer 3
    30 June 2020 at 7:38 pm

    "That the caucus is leaking … has got to be as worrying for the Tories as the poll result."

    Yes, this. The poll snapshots will vary, depending on the headlines of the particular polling period, so I wouldn't read too much into that. But regardless, National seriously lack internal discipline, after 14 years of being very tight and on-message. They're like kids who suddenly lose adult supervision: it's "Lord of the Flies".

    I think the underlying problem is that Muller sees his job differently from many of his MPs. They think: "Stop the rot, save most of us, and after the election we'll say thank you and goodbye". Which makes sense.

    But he thinks he's a Prime Minister.

    • Stuart Munro 3.1
      30 June 2020 at 8:20 pm

      They're like kids who suddenly lose adult supervision: it's Lord of the Flies

      They're certainly like the William Golding story – not like real people at all.

      • greywarshark 3.1.1
        30 June 2020 at 9:34 pm

        Edit
        Good to see you back Stuart I hope you had a good break. That was a fascinating story about the shipwrecked boys – I wonder though if there would have been less co-operation between a bunch from some UK public school of class-oriented types. Lord of the Flies has been an important piece of fiction accepted as well-founded, so it needs to be reassessed as being another like the present zombie fictional offerings.

        I thought of Ayn Rand. Golding wrote about the 'Flies' in 1951, and Rand wrote the Fountainhead in 1957, and Atlas Shrugged in 1963. They both seem to have taken a negative view of humankind in these books, and tend not to give us any redeeming features; in fact Rand advocates against them! She was determined, self-willed and unique and I am reminded that Margaret Thatcher also was said to have these traits.

        In Atlas Shrugged: The story of Atlas Shrugged dramatically expresses Rand's ethical egoism, her advocacy of "rational selfishness", whereby all of the principal virtues and vices are applications of the role of reason as man's basic tool of survival (or a failure to apply it): rationality, honesty, justice, independence, integrity, productiveness, and pride….

        …it contains Rand's most extensive statement of Objectivism in any of her works of fiction.

        The concept "sanction of the victim" is defined by Leonard Peikoff as "the willingness of the good to suffer at the hands of the evil, to accept the role of sacrificial victim for the '…sin' of creating values"…

        Rand also depicts public choice theory, such that the language of altruism is used to pass legislation nominally in the public interest (e.g., the "Anti-Dog-Eat-Dog Rule", and "The Equalization of Opportunity Bill"), but more to the short-term benefit of special interests and government agencies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Shrugged#Sanction_of_the_victim

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_Rand

        Has she extended her domain to Trump? This written in 2017 – https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/apr/10/new-age-ayn-rand-conquered-trump-white-house-silicon-valley

        • Stuart Munro 3.1.1.1
          30 June 2020 at 9:53 pm

          Rand deserves more respect than Golding – her friends and family lost everything to the Soviet takeover – her condemnation of socialism sprang not from malice or self-justifying philosophy but personal experience of a very nasty regime that spouted humanist claims it never even tried to make good. But she went too far down the road of self-belief, destroying her relationships and ultimately being dropped by secular prophet she created.

          Randian critiques can certainly be made of recent NZ government – neo-liberalism has been Orwell's boot for most of us, and, as discussed with Weka yesterday, they are too corrupt even to bother cleaning up the rivers. It's the same (bovine) faeces, just a different day – I am ashamed of all our MPs, and of our country for tolerating their lies.

  4. Tricledrown 4
    30 June 2020 at 8:42 pm

    Muddler looked like a possum in the head lights or a homeless man hiding in an isolation hotel.on TV tonight.

  5. Patricia Bremner 5
    30 June 2020 at 8:50 pm

    Their perfidy is on show.

  7. Peter 7
    30 June 2020 at 9:26 pm

    Jami-Lee was the leaker? Ummm …. get rid of him

    Got rid of him. More caucus leaks happened.

    We're way down the road. More leaks ……

    The next colander caucus meeting will be interesting.

  8. Tricledrown 8
    30 June 2020 at 9:27 pm

    With Collins book out tommorrow maybe another leadership change.

  9. Incognito 9
    30 June 2020 at 9:57 pm

    Good on Muller for sharing the polling data with his caucus. Being open, honest, accountable, and transparent are attributes that any leader needs to have and demonstrate to obtain trust and respect from his team. Seems that some in Muller’s team don’t reciprocate accordingly. National’s leadership is a poisoned chalice.

    • Kiwijoker 9.1
      1 July 2020 at 7:43 am

      Personal loyalty is one of the foundations of neoliberalism as well.

    • Dennis Frank 9.2
      1 July 2020 at 8:41 am

      What's required is a transformation of political culture within the Nats. Takes time. Muller deserves credit for sending the initial signal (will try not to do knee-jerk binary stuff) but unless he proceeds to provide a conceptual rationale for a new course, and then secures caucus backing for it, then those predicting he's merely an interim leader will likely be proven correct.

      Does Hooten get this? No sign of it yet. Defaulting to bau is unlikely to work for either Muller or the Nats. He has to earn loyalty from his team by demonstrating that he's a winner, even if only potentially to start with. Has to think his way through the thicket of pandemic governance & economics & start signalling the way to go forward. Trans-Tasman bubble was a good start – then it popped. Next?

      Meanwhile the leaked poll result shows that the resurgent Ardern effect is robust and David Clark hasn't been able to dent it. Also, the Nat/Lab 90% total suggests that the effect is squeezing the minor parties into 10% of the electorate. Centrists and conservatives have both deserted NZF, surprisingly. Looks like the Ardern effect and the Muller effect have combined to shock Winston. And seeing the look on Jon Johansen's face as he followed Winston into the lift yesterday; deeply-worried, and understandably so. Can Winston pull another rabbit out of his hat??

      • Incognito 9.2.1
        1 July 2020 at 8:58 am

        Hooton is the wrong guy for team building and reconciliation, within National and, more importantly, building bridges with the people of New Zealand. I think it was odd from Todd to pick Hooton. Best thing he could do now is to get rid of him and bring in the right advisor for the immediate task at hand. Single-issue gotcha politics only gets you so far with an Election in 80 days.

        Shane Jones will have to win Northland; no need for rabbits out of hats. Simple election calculus.

        I look forward to Labour’s policies. So far, crickets.

  10. Bearded Git 10
    30 June 2020 at 11:25 pm

    I love this twitter post from antihobbes:

    "National's 'strong team' includes aspiring MPs jumping ship, embittered factions leaking to the press, a finance guy perplexed with how marginal tax rates work, and a health guy chasing ghosts of homeless people down the corridors of parliament."

  11. tc 11
    1 July 2020 at 3:16 am

    Could that trumpian strategy actually be an iceberg toddy is heading for in September ?

    A decent turnout looks inevitable given recent events. Interesting times indeed.

  12. NZJester 12
    1 July 2020 at 7:23 am

    When you see a lot of rats start to abandon a ship you know it is more than a small leak. I don't think they have enough lifeboats (Safe National Seats) to keep a lot of their jobs as they have loaned one out to keep another party afloat that had their ship sink long ago and a lot more on the list are going to go down with the ship this time around.

    • aj 12.1
      1 July 2020 at 8:54 am

      The visual look in Parliament is more and more like a Federated Farmers meeting. The lack of diversity is stunningly obvious.
      As for this reported polling, Woodhouse has overplayed his very weak hand and the voters probably see through him. He’s a liability to the Nats

  13. peterh 13
    1 July 2020 at 8:57 am

    Good day in the house yesterday they found the name of the homeless man Pinoccino

    • Robert Guyton 13.1
      1 July 2020 at 9:58 am

      I wondered if someone might follow up by saying the home/house/less man could be easily identified by the flames licking about his trousers.

  14. Adrian 14
    1 July 2020 at 9:31 am

    A few things.

    Talking to the wife of one of this areas more rabid rural Nats yesterday and she was annoyed about the Nat party attacks and sniping over petty rubbish when Jacinda's team had saved us from the worst of Covid ( her words ), she said it wasn't fair and not working for them ( the Nats ). I bloody nearly fell over in shock.

    Alistair Scott, Nat MP, vineyard owner, took 170k in wage subsidy for 26 staff, in a year when wineries have had best sales in a long time. One of the companies I grow for told me they need 75,000 cases more. 26 staff is a bloody big vineyard operation and I don't believe his is one. Bullshit alert. He claimed they had a low crop year so it is not a Covid problem, he's just loosing money.

    • Tricledrown 14.1
      1 July 2020 at 9:49 am

      Has his business suffered a 40% decline if not the law calls that fraud.

      Given there is a shortage of wine in the northern hemisphere due to droughts.

    • Graeme 14.2
      1 July 2020 at 10:07 am

      It would be hard work saying anything in agriculture had a 30% drop in income because of COVID. If the $170K hasn't been paid back in full a month or two ago the audit will be fun.

      Hopefully Labour have a good candidate in Marlborough to kick the skids out from under Scott.

        • Graeme 14.2.1.1
          1 July 2020 at 11:07 am

          I hope he gets some good support and coaching to drive this one home and light up the plonka

        • Tiger Mountain 14.2.1.2
          1 July 2020 at 12:45 pm

          Right wing Labour is the impression from the stuff piece, but hey, so many contractors, and tradies, and sub contractors, and interns, need to realise they are actually part of the working class.

          Sometimes voting tory in the provinces is just an entrenched bad habit that needs to be changed–not helped by the unholy networks of sports clubs, Lodges, Cop/Fire stations, business associations, service clubs etc. that pressure people from youth to believe “we’re blue around here mate”.

          • te reo putake 14.2.1.2.1
            1 July 2020 at 1:27 pm

            I know what you mean, TM. One of the major planks of Thatcherism was to buy off the better paid workers by selling their rental properties to them to make them feel that they were a class above. But the reality is that we are all working class these days, though our powerlessness is disguised by mortgages and credit card debt.

            Just as an aside, I was a campaign manager in a rural seat a couple of times and there were active pockets of red in a sea of blue. However, it was real struggle to find supporters willing to put hoardings up because of a fear they'd be ostracised by their neighbours.

            One family of supporters with hoardings up had their house vandalised in a really nasty attack. The local plod just shrugged his shoulders in a 'whadidya expect' kind of way.

            And that was under that nice Mr Key.

            • Tiger Mountain 14.2.1.2.1.1
              1 July 2020 at 2:18 pm

              Yes, hoardings are a little subset of political activity which can get intense. I have a prominent corner site on SH14 in a Tory area, 5 min from Whangarei CBD which will have a nice Labour sign on it like in 2017-despite my justified criticisms of NZ Labour. Am adding a “Make it legal” sign this year too. People almost suffered neck injuries last time when the Jacinda sign went up, replacing the Andrew one of course.

              • Patricia Bremner …
                1 July 2020 at 8:58 pm

                My cousin was looking after our place and hoardings on a corner here in Rotorua, and she had no problems. She said if she was outside people would toot and give the thumbs up.

                Tamati Coffee won for Labour on the Maori roll,, but Todd (Yes another one lol) McClay won for the blue lot. Hope that changes this time, but that is a big ask for Claire Mahon.

                We will be here doing our bit. We will watch the election night with hope.

      • Adrian 14.2.2
        1 July 2020 at 11:50 am

        Scott is on the list I think Graeme, Stuart Smith is the Kaikoura ( Marlborough/North Canterbury ) MP. He sold his interests in a vineyard before he went into politics, a nice bloke but out of his depth a bit and on the outer, his favourite economist is Steve Keane, I told him good fucking luck with that in the Nats.

        A dead dog with a blue ribbon on its collar would carry North Canterbury in most years, Marlborough ( Kaikoura township north ) has favoured Labour in most elections but gets dicked by about 70/30% in NC.

        Maybe this year.

  15. Tiger Mountain 15
    1 July 2020 at 9:45 am

    “I’m sick and tired of you setting me up
    Setting me up just to knock-a knock-a knock-a me down
    Down, down, down
    I’m going down, down, down, down
    I’m going down, down, down, down
    I’m going down, down, down, down”

    Nashnull on a downer?–don’t get complacent is all I can say. Keep fighting till they are defeated–after the election, keep fighting to roll back “Roger’n’Ruth’s” legacy.

  16. swordfish 16
    1 July 2020 at 10:18 am

    Right, so if we assume this 55/34 Curia is pretty much up-to-date … then that adds some fuel to my theory (briefly outlined here) … https://thestandard.org.nz/one-news-cb-poll-june/#comment-1722997 … that the 9 point swing back to the Nats in the latest Colmar Brunton was a significant exaggeration … the artefact of a May CB that's looking increasingly rogue.

    • te reo putake 16.1
      1 July 2020 at 10:52 am

      That Colmar Brunton did seem reasonable to me at the time, Swordfish, mainly because I assumed many Tories would return to the fold the moment they dumped Simon Bridges. Even if it was accurate, another warning sign for National was in it anyway, and that was the rise in the ACT vote.

      That's an indication that their most politically conscious voters were walking away because of the inevitably of National's loss in September. Better to strengthen ACT than waste a party vote on a hopeless National.

      • swordfish 16.1.1
        1 July 2020 at 11:27 am

        Colmar Brunton has been the most National-friendly Pollster this term … so the unusually Labour-friendly ratings in its (2nd-to-last) May poll are looking just a little bit dodgy. Next Reid Research, Roy Morgan (& any stray UMRs) should provide more definitive evidence. But I'll take this Curia as pointing vaguely toward my theory.

    • Adrian 16.2
      1 July 2020 at 11:54 am

      Yes Swordfish and the reaction from the Nats I know backs that up. Some not very happy with the mindless attack politics.

      • woodart 16.2.1
        1 July 2020 at 1:59 pm

        when senior M.P.s jump ship almost in unison, that is the biggest ,most public reaction, and acknowledgement.

  17. georgecom 17
    1 July 2020 at 9:53 pm

    lets hope low 30s continues. if so Paora Goldsmith will probably have to win Epsom to make it back into Parliament and we can see the extinction of the ACT party

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