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One News/CB Poll June

Written By: - Date published: 6:33 pm, June 25th, 2020 - 49 comments
Categories: class war, election 2020, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, Media, national, nz first, Politics, todd muller - Tags: , ,

National have partially reverted to the mean in the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll.

Dumping Simon Bridges and the evaporation of the post Covid feel good factor has seen the major parties swap 9% support. However, Labour are still looking good for an historic outright win on 50%.

Even better, the Greens are safe on 6% and NZ First are looking like the goneburgers they deserve to be.

Labour Party – 50% (down 9)
National Party – 38% (up 9)
Green Party – 6% (up 1.3)
ACT – 3.1% (up 0.9%)
New Zealand First – 1.8% (down 1.1%)
Māori Party – 0.9%
New Conservative – 0.7%
TOP – 0.5%
Don’t Know/Refused – 15% 

 

 

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The preferred leader polling shows a similar swing, with Todd Muller hitting 13% at the first go. 13 … lucky for some, as they say in the bingo hall.

Jacinda Ardern: 54% (down 9%-points)
Todd Muller: 13% (up 13%)
Judith Collins: 2% (down 1%)
Winston Peters: 2% (up 1%)

 

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49 comments on “One News/CB Poll June”

  1. Anne 1

    Afraid you got the bad spot TRP. Mickey got the the left hand side and since we read from left to right we piled into his post. 😀

    Despite the big lead, Labour has been delivered a warning… don't rest on your laurels and remember you ignore dirty politics from the other side at your peril.

    Ask Helen Clark. Her government found that out in 2008.

  2. I think National will become even more noisy about supposed failures.

    This Rest Home closure…. now that could be a problem in the making.

    We need to ramp up support for Labour and the Greens 

  3. aj 3

    This Rest Home closure…. now that could be a problem in the making.

    From stuff – false alarm….

    Rest home chief executive Warick​ Dunn said following advice from health authorities, the home decided to close its doors to visitors until the test results were returned.

    It was closed about 6pm on Wednesday and had reopened by midday on Thursday, when the staff member's test came back negative.

    "Public health did the test super quick and it was back in three hours."

    Dunn said the staff member was off sick and everything had returned to normal at the Clausen St home.

  4. Thanks aj ,  I will sleep better.

    They were on the ball.

  5. anker 5

    I think it is not a bad result for Labour given the week they just had with all the shock horror stories (some genuine system failures that were not acceptable and needed a quick response to).  I think people will get some perspective, especially as each day goes by with no community transmission.  But really a lot of hysteria (some of my own included, but I am not a journalist).

    Sit tight guys.  We have a very good chance of winning outright…….Remember Ardern will slaughter Muller in the debates.  This week all he keeps repeating is its a disgrace.  To Todd Muller, I would have saved the term "its a disgrace" for the way your former colleague Coleman hid the true state of Middlemore hospitals with raw sewerage in the walls.

  6. mickysavage 6

    Sorry comrade.  Did not see your post when I put mine up.  Happy to let you do these posts from now on.

    Good that we both had the same conclusions …

  7. te reo putake 7

    No worries,  ms! I always look at the ' all posts' tab before writing. We must have typing at the same time. And thanks, Anne, that's a salient point. Chickens, hatching etc.

  8. Dennis Frank 8

    Dumping Simon Bridges and the evaporation of the post Covid feel good factor has seen the major parties swap 9% support.

    Yes, just too bad we don't know more precisely why!  My guess is that Todd pulled most of them back – 6% max.  His poor performance prevented the effect getting larger.

    The other 3% came back due to the quarantine shambles collapsing the Labour competence illusion bubble.  Just as likely that the Todd effect was a 4% switch and the disillusionment 5% though.

    If I was employed as advisor to Jacinda I'd tell her:  "Look, I told you it was a mistake to retain Clark. How much longer do you want him to damage Labour?"

    Mystery of the poll:  why NZF continues to decline.  Can't blame Shane for everything!  Conservative centrists seem to have lost faith in Winston – yet he has provided model leadership until recent months, Ron Mark hasn't screwed up and Tracey has never put a foot wrong either.

    • SPC 8.1

      If I was employed as advisor to Jacinda I'd tell her: "Look, I told you it was a mistake to retain Clark. How much longer do you want him to damage Labour?"

      Is it really about Clark though? 

      I would say, ride it out. It's about media and National trying to play the safety card to gain kudos with the public, over the lack of testing of those who arrived into managed isolation facilities before the June 9 policy change. It's largely a beat up each has exploited to curry public favour (after being unpopular during the lockdown period). Co-dependents. If something similar happens in the week leading to the next poll it will look obvious before the election final straight that we have a biased media (and it's becoming obvious we have a media for the 50% not the whole of our society – NZME radio/TV3 Newshub radio and Stuff media desperate for commercial survival and TVNZ and RNZ scared of the National Party punishing them when back in power – Stockholm syndrome). 

      It may be less racist and sexist than before but still quite classist. A lot like National. But they cannot change the facts. It was media campaigning for months in favour of early release (when there was no testing) and National calling for more open borders and this will be remembered.   

      Already we are seeing a reboot of their strategy with a change in tack to move on Bloomfield today by one of the Herald columnists (others will follow her cue, the tilt to Bloomfield vs Clark was just a temporay tactic to see if they could divuide and conquer or not). 

    • Frank, People see Winston as a handbrake on progress.

    • swordfish 8.3

       

      Dumping Simon Bridges and the evaporation of the post Covid feel good factor has seen the major parties swap 9% support.

      It's possible the 9% swing is an exaggeration.

      Throughout most of this term, Colmar Brunton has been the most National-friendly Pollster in its results … so its May Poll came as a major surprise.

      Given these typical House Effects and given the TV3 Reid Research May Poll put Labour at 56.5% & the Nats on 30.6% (with UMR showing similar figures) … you would've expected Labour to have scored around 54% & the Nats about 34% in the May Colmar Brunton.

      But surprisingly bucking the recent trend, the May Colmar Brunton was decidedly more Labour-friendly than other Polls conducted around the same time … putting the Party on an astonishing 59% & the Nats down at 29.

      It's quite possible, then, that the May Colmar Brunton was a rare outlier bordering on Rogue status & that it's now reverted back to its typical National-friendly House Effect with this latest June iteration. In which case, the actual swing from Lab to Nat may be something closer to just 4 or 5 points.

      Just a theory … hopefully a TV3 Reid Research will be out soon to provide some tangible evidence one way or t'other. Not to mention Roy Morgan (should be published in the next week or so) … and another UMR leak would be as welcome as whisky too. If I'm right, we might expect Labour to be sitting on about 52-53% in the next round of poll releases, with the Nats somewhere in the mid-30s.

      • Dennis Frank 8.3.1

        Yeah the outlier effect does have to be kept in mind.  Rogue polls happen sometimes.  I agree re likelihood of Labour in early fifties.  Nats may get confronted with a dead cat bounce.  On the other hand their secret weapon festers on as health minister…

        • Drowsy M. Kram 8.3.1.1

          Not a "secret weapon" surely – even I've heard of him, poor fellowblush.

          What now, give National a scalp and throw 'the people' a bone?  yes or no

          • Dennis Frank 8.3.1.1.1

            Perception that it would be a Nat victory would not be widespread, I suspect (except in the media, who obsess about binary stuff).  Most people would just breathe a sigh of relief that common sense had prevailed.

            Compassion?  Yeah, maybe.  The Peter principle has been around a long time (year of Woodstock).  But why can't he learn from what Andrew Little did??

  9. I'm no fan of Winnie, TRP but we (this entire country) owe him a vote of thanks for choosing to go with Labour and not the Natz. When you look at the Natz border control record – PSA and Micro something or other and so on, then we dodged a bullet.

    We should be pushing the meme: vote Natz = invite Covid-19 back to NZ.

    • Gosman 9.1

      Given the mess at the borders that might just go to remind people that Labour wasn't great shakes on that front. Best to concentrate on the positives not the negatives.

    • While I agree that we owe Winston Peters some thanks, it's worth remembering that he went with Labour primarily because they offered the better deal. NZ First were able to deliver on at least some of their policy platform and they got significant ministerial jobs.

      The issue I see now, is that NZF have run out of positive things to do and are now just the opposition within Government.

      The long term issue I have with them is the succession question. A Shane Jones led NZF would be inclined to go with National in my opinion.

  10. Gosman 10

    To be honest this election matters less than the one after. Whoever wins the Treasury benches will be hugely restricted by dealing with the impact of the measures used to control Covid-19. They are likely to lose support over the term they are in charge. I'm more interested in the positioning for the 2023 election especially given the revival of ACT and the apparent withering of NZ First. 

  11. Yes  Tony, but that was last election,  this is now.  They have done great service for NZ,  but have not pulled in fisheries or admitted how serious covid-19 is,  and wanted open borders with Australia along with National weeks ago.  We could have been where Victoria is.

    The returning Kiwis are an extra worry,  but we need to make them feel they have come back because they have rejoined the team.  When things were going poorly for ordinary people they voted with their feet.  They are doing that again,  and isn't it great they are returning home.  We will be stronger,  and they want to support what we have here.

    Some returnees have been petulant,  there are always going to be a few,  but the amplification of their voices has left the bulk of the grateful returnees voiceless,  though that appears to be changing as more go online to laud their good experiences.

    Jacinda  David and Ashley need to grab the narrative from Hooten and c/o.  Megan did that with her letter.  It shifted the emphasis of the questions,  this needs to continue. 

    The bounce on change of leader was as good as it gets.  Bridges on 8%  Muller on 13%

    National on 29% now 38%    We need to make sure the pendulum swings back again.

    Tackling Todd's lack of depth and repeating his "National disgrace" back to him with a list.   Listing what has been achieved by the team.  How we are the envy of the world in terms of leadership and situation.  How they are white anting the success for political gain.

    • Gabby 11.1

      Staying on the Woodlouse case until he produces some evidence. Pursuing Basher Bishop's relationship with the poor dears who got lost on the motorway.

  12. coge 12

    I posted a number of weeks back, suggesting the Govt should have gone early. 

    Here we are now, watching the tide go out. Labour having squandered a once in a lifetime opportunity. 

     

  13. Ed1 13

    Winston needed to show that he would use the power of veto responsibly, and that he has replaced Captain Sensible in taking a middle view. National will publicly blame Labour for some things not being done, but they know Winston has not always been responsible. National extremists (say 75% of them) have a visceral hatred for the betrayal by not going with the "winning" party. NZ First is being squeezed.

    The previous poll would have included some Nat supporters sending a message about Bridges. 6% seems a fair estimate.

    Muller was indicating this morning that he wanted to open borders more urgently . . . . 

  14. Bearded Git 14

    I reckon two-thirds of nzf voters lean to the Nats….they are pissed off Winnie went with labour/greens and because of this will not vote for them this election ..hence the 1.8 per cent

  15. Corey Humm 15

    This a great poll for the left. I'd really prefer a majority Labour govt just because it would mean Labour had no excuses to not be a reforming govt and the greens could gain more support in opposition for third term but that's unlikely to happen it's clear labour will need the greens to govern by the time of the election but that's fine.

     

    I thought the greens would be around 8% and the Maori party around 2% post BLM which is interesting.  

     

    Can we have an early election? Labour hung alliance out to dry over one vote where as Winston's having daily hissy fits and NZ firsts outbursts, the investigations against them and their refusal to commit to core policies in the coalition agreement is grounds enough to go to the public. All Jacinda has to do is say we can't afford to waste three months in the middle of a crisis with a caretaker govt and with parliament focused solely on an election. Have a quick four week campaign and get to reforming the country. 

    • Dennis Frank 15.1

      There normally has to be a combination of serious govt failure and sufficient time prior to the scheduled election.  Only three months is insufficient & govt failure not that serious.  Public backlash means too much risk for Jacinda.

      The Maori Party failure last election seems to have been due to a Maori resentment of their aristocracy.  Having their king endorse it was like the kiss of death.  However the Maori swing to Labour could also have been due to appreciation of those who became Labour ministers.  I don't see JT as likely to out-perform his old talkback co-host Willie Jackson, for instance.

      Strikes me NZF dropping below ACT is the biggie in this poll.  But we await the next one to see if it gets confirmed…

    • observer 15.2

      I don't want an early election but I would like Ardern to push NZF harder.

      "Collapse the government if you dare …" – and he wouldn't.

      PM gets the headlines "PM tough, Winston blinks". To the wider public, that's not how it looks right now.

      If NZF want to force an election after Winston is sacked, they are finished.

      • Pat 15.2.1

        the election is mere weeks away and there is no need or desire for a showdown with Winston and the public know and understand such….some media and commentators however seem to be a little bored.

        They need to get a life.

        • observer 15.2.1.1

          Not a showdown just for the sake of it, no.

          But major policies have been blocked – several just in the past week – and I don't see a problem with calling out the blockers.

          • Pat 15.2.1.1.1

            call them out all you like….theres nothing to be gained at this late stage, it wont change anything pre election.

            Force an early election however and some at least will punish those deemed opportunistic

    • Grafton Gully 15.3

      Nah enjoy the NZF self destruct, quick death too quick, let em froth and writhe. 

  16. Michael 16

    The poll indicates volatility among voters, which means the Nats have a residual attraction to many of them, while Labour's lead depends on its performance. They handed the Nats several open shots at goal over the borders issue, which they took full advantage of. The Nats are fighting dirty (as usual) but Labour's own screw-ups are a factor here.

  17. Maurice 17

    So 50% of 85% (remember the 15% 'Don't know/refused to answer' ) is 42.5% of the whole sample

    and 38% of 85% is 32.3% of the whole sample

    So Labour 42.5% National 32.3% of the whole electorate may be a nearer representation

    Now – were they ALL potential voters or simply a random sample?

    It is a LONG way to the Election

    Let's not get too sure of ourselves ….

  18. observer 18

    This is the same poll, but reported on the news tonight.

    83% support for government response to virus.

    Consider what that means. That is how people responded when asked during a week of very bad headlines about the response – the worst week since lockdown began 3 months ago. 83%.

    It's almost as if the Kiwi public had a memory that lasts longer than that of a goldfish, and a perspective informed by reality. We definitely should hear more from this public, they sound like sensible people. Not hysterical at all, they would never be any good as commentators …

    • I Feel Love 18.1

      Yep, only the RW and the desperate are repeating the "shambles at the borders" bullshit, pretty much no one in this country even knows someone with Covid, and I doubt many believe National would have done better.

  19. How many Natz  did winnie try to accuse of privacy leaks before th last election?

    There was no way ,back then , he was going to back natz.

    The gamble did not pay off.  The natz  blew it by antagonising winnie.

    Now it is "national no mates" all over again.

    I suspect the bridges wing (and their wealthy financial backers) of the natz being arrogant enough to dump on winnie.

    This will take some to settle.

    OBTW "a week is along time in politics", and there is plenty of time for bs to fly before the election.  Our perfidious media editors are going to love it.

    The nzf demographic base has been shifting for some time (death comes to all of us).

    I suspect that a rally for nzf will come from north auckland interests.  Watch this space.

  20. I am with Jim Bolger, on this only.  The only poll that counts is on election day.

    Bring it on, maybe we can resume talking about some actual factual matters.

    Not media puffery.

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  • Statement on passage of national security law for Hong Kong
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