Not that it’s apparent from Shub’s spinny headline and Tova O’Brien’s ‘Labour are loosers’ reckons, (Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll), so I fixed if for ya Newshub.
It’s just one poll*, a year out from an election, but if we’re going to have a little flurry of fervour over it, let’s at least enjoy the moment.
'A seismic political shift' that sees Labour polling higher than last election and governing with the greens. https://t.co/1kWouBtnJ2— Dr Barnaby Bennett (@mrbarnabyb) October 13, 2019
Here are the actual results,
*do we not have poll of polls anymore, or analysis of trends?
Back in Shubland: “Labour can’t do it alone”. No shit. Twenty-five years of MMP and this is the quality of analysis we have from one of our main media networks?
The important news about $300m upgrade of Taranaki hospital is relegated to a 1 min slot half way through the news after Ranting Tova spent ten minutes gushing about imaginary numbers #nzpol— Mr. Kiwi ⧖ (@HilariousKiwi) October 13, 2019
I’m not a poll commentator but off the top of my head, here’s some things Newshub could have talked about: margin of error, individual poll vs trends, what the actual trend is, how polls influence voting, NZ First always do better at the election, Labour and especially Ardern would have had a lift in polling after their handling of the Christchurch massacre and a consequent, normal drop over time.
Shub’s chart for the poll on how well the Prime Minister is performing doesn’t even have an x axis so we don’t know if this is relative to the last election or the last five minutes. They did handily link to an article from June titled Jacinda Ardern ‘absolutely’ running for another term as Prime Minister, so perhaps they know something the rest of us don’t and NZ is about to change its electoral system and allow us to vote for a premier.
Meanwhile, from the ‘John who?’ popular PM files,
Best headline today.https://t.co/GPSh47jECo— Simon Wilson (@simonbwilson) October 13, 2019
Jacinda Ardern just took Stephen Colbert for a coffee in Morningside.https://t.co/fycpWkns4j— The Spinoff (@TheSpinoffTV) October 11, 2019
Not only do we have the delight of Ardern being good at her job, widely admired for it, and the potential of a Labour/Green government even with Labour taking a dip in a poll, there were some bloody fantastic left wing and progressive results in the local body elections announced on the weekend. Here’s hoping the other media can give us some useful analysis this week.