Once again: National lost the election
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- Date published:
9:17 pm, November 26th, 2017 - 154 comments
Categories: democracy under attack, election 2017, MMP, national, nick smith, nz first -
Tags: enforced coalition, sour grapes
I can’t believe we’re still relitigating this stuff. Micky provided us a screencap earlier of a letter Nick Smith sent to the Nelson and Tasman areas, claiming that:
Election 2017 resulted in an unusual outcome where National won the election[1] but lost the MMP negotiations. We secured 1,152,075 votes, which is more than we did in 2008, 2011, or 2014[2]. National’s Party Vote of 44.4% was higher than Labour’s 36.9% and significantly more than under Helen Clark’s three governments.
This odd outcome is because NZ First has ignored the convention both in New Zealand and overseas that the party with the most votes gets to form the government. It is Winston Peters saying he knows better than voters.
This outrageous claim has also been reported at Newshub. While we’ve had a chance to quickly discuss the implications in the other thread, I thought I’d do some detailed rebuttal, using actual context, facts, and references- you know, those things that National Party politicians seem to love to hate, probably due to reality’s well-known left-wing bias. Strap in, this post is going to be long.
Government negotiations
Government negotiations are not unique to MMP as Smith may be implying. Australia’s ruling party frequently requires negotiations with centrist independent MPs to form a government. In fact, they can even happen in FPP systems- the UK recently had what is referred to as a “hung Parliament,” where there is a plurality winner but no outright majority winner, and a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement is required to govern, and Theresa May’s Conservatives had to form a government with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party. All our New Zealand MMP governments so far have been “hung” in this respect, but no recent FPP ones were, so the term has never really caught on in New Zealand.
Yes, National lost the negotiations. What they are claiming here is that they have some sort of moral right to force New Zealand First into coalition with them or at least get them to formally prioritize a government with National as the plurality winners, because being plurality winners gives them a right to govern. This is absolutely incorrect, even when you compare constitutional norms in New Zealand with other countries, in every country that’s still a democracy, it is understood that potential coalition partners have a right to say “no.” This isn’t unusual, it’s basic democracy in action. As for the claim National should get some sort of formal priority to form a government due to being the biggest party, we’ve already discussed that particular modest proposal.
What being a plurality winner gives you is a significant negotiating advantage, especially when your nearest competitor would need to add additional support partners to their arrangement to form a government and you only need one. National had that advantage with New Zealand First, but was unable to offer a convincing policy package that addressed their aims for New Zealand. This is not the fault of MMP, it is the fault of an uncompromising National Party that still hasn’t really adapted to the idea of a Parliament with more than two strong parties: it still wants to be able to throw its weight around against parties smaller than itself.
I will accept, of course, that we are in an unprecedented new situation with our current coalition government: For the first time, we have a government that has to function based on consensus between three parties, with the core governing party not an ascendant winner of the largest vote in the election, but still having successfully won an election by campaigning for clear change. Previously, governments have always been able to arrange multiple ways to get bills passed, making the governing party far more powerful than its support parties. In our current parliament, the only way for that to happen outside of all government parties agreeing is for National and Labour to agree, something that’s relatively infrequent, (although sadly likely in certain cases, like passing legislation for the new version of the TPP, the CPATPP) and outright co-operation between the two on routine matters is generally reserved for wartime.
Is it a norm that a Plurality Winner forms the government?
Let’s say it’s a trend due to their stronger position, but not an actual norm. This trend is strongest in anglophone countries, where we have a tradition of representation that isn’t quite proportional, a tradition MMP was supposed to end. Since the introduction of MMP in New Zealand, we have had three governments formed based, during at least one of their terms, on support from parties in the centre of the political spectrum, who could arguably have gone either way. On two of those occasions, the governing party was the Plurality winner. On two of those occasions, the governing Party was Labour. There is also the 1999 election, where National won the plurality, but Labour and the Alliance governed with support from the Greens.
If we want to look back before the implementation of MMP, however, there were coalition governments in New Zealand, in fact, that’s how the National Party came about, as an eventual merger of the Liberal and Reform parties that had twice coalesced to keep the plurality winner, Labour, out of power.
So let’s accept that we need to look outside of New Zealand to determine norms clearly, because we simply don’t have enough data, and let’s restrict our comparison to other proportional systems, and besides, if we look just in New Zealand, Smith is clearly wrong that this is some sort of constitutional convention- both law and tradition state that a coalition winner can oust a plurality winner.
In Germany, the country who our system is modelled after, it is constitutional convention that the Chancellor is only decided after a majority government is picked, (thanks to the commenter who corrected me about that, it’s hard to find accurate info on exactly how governments are formed sometimes) which is similar to our system where the Governor General appoints the PM based on an assurance of a majority in Parliament. There are four previous examples out of 18 Bundestags3 where the chancellor has not been from the party that was the Plurality winner, hardly an “unusual outcome”. Germany has also mostly avoided this in recent times due to the two major parties converging on the centre of German politics, and frequently forming Grand Coalitions which frustrate both far-right and far-left voters, arguably leading to the recent rise of the neo-nazi Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD, or “alternative for Germany”) party above their 5% threshold. This is an example National probably doesn’t want to follow, as it benefits them tremendously to be seen as distinct from Labour, even though there is arguably siginificant overlap between Labour, New Zealand First, and National.
In Iceland, as I discussed in that previous post, it is a frequent occurrence that the plurality winner is excluded from government, even though they get the first try at forming a government, as the largest parties are often three or more medium-sized parties (by New Zealand norms) around the 20% mark in their elections, giving those who are willing to consider multiple coalition options a fair degree of power in the talks. In Sweden we only have to go back to 2010 to find an election where the plurality winner lost, and this one will interest National supporters, as it was a left-wing party that was seen as having a historical loss when it was forced out of power by a right-wing coalition. This also happened recently in Israel’s 2009 election. I’m sure I could keep going here, but I don’t suspect I need to- while it’s not the most frequent outcome internationally, it’s well-precedented that a coalition winner can oust a plurality winner in a variety of list-based proportional systems similar to MMP.
Undermining our system of government
What this really seems to be about is an attack by the National Party on the very idea of MMP itself. When New Zealanders campaigned to change our system of government, National was in charge, and they tried to stack the odds against change by including what they thought would be the most unpopular options they could for genuine change, including increasing the number of MPs if New Zealanders voted for MMP, but they did anyway. In 2011, they misconstrued promises of a “review” on how MMP was functioning to mean we needed a referendum on whether the public wanted to keep it, when it was clear pre-referendum that MMP had broad support in New Zealand society, and nobody wanted their alternative options. They also refused to implement the recommendations of a committee on changes to MMP that they themselves formed, after it recommended both a slightly lower 4% threshold4, and that they eliminate the lifeboat rule which they were hoping might resurrect some of their coalition partners in the future. Now in 2017, all their significant potential governing partners are either out of Parliament or have sided with Labour, and they’re worried about where their next path to government will come from, so instead of campaigning for public support, or considering splitting off a new party to go into coalition with, National is instead trying to undermine the legitimacy of the new government by attacking how it was formed, using what can at best be characterized as misinformation.
This is scorched-earth tactics from National, and is Trumpian behaviour at best, if not simply outright anti-democratic. (I would argue that they’re the same thing, personally) National needs to sit back, reconnect with voters, and try to come up with a way to be popular enough that it can get back into government with just ACT, or compromise enough so it can get New Zealand First or the Greens to pick it ahead of Labour, or even seriously consider splitting.
And seriously, why not split? National used to be two parties, and it currently has a right-wing socially liberal wing that does well in Auckland and with urban business, and a right-wing conservative wing that does well in the regions and relates well with the farming community. Why not let Judith Collins lead one party, and Bill English or a sucessor, lead the other? A lot of National’s worse results in the past have been due to losing conservatives to parties like the Conservatives, United Future, or various Christian Parties, or losing libertarians to ACT. Splitting into two would allow both parties to more aggressively pursue their ideological constituencies, driving up voter turnout, while still going into coalition with each other, if the numbers allow. It would also mean that conservatives don’t have to rely on conscience votes to oppose socially liberal legislation. Overall, it might be an electoral win for the right-wing in the short term, but it would likely be a bigger win for democracy and democratic engagement in the long term. It would also likely mean that they could win back a fair amount of conservative support from New Zealand First, who currently represent the conservative centrist vote.
I’m not optimistic that National will ever truly embrace MMP, or seriously consider splitting, but their approach to opposition right now is just going to annoy voters who support the current system, and it’s highly unlikely it will ever sufficiently energize their base to help them in an election. In the most charitable interpretation, it could be viewed as sour grapes.
1 This claim is based on National being the “plurality winner,” ie. receiving the largest number of party votes. This is distinct from having a majority, (over 50% of seats in Parliament) a mandate, (over 50% of party votes in total for a government, where the parties concerned campaigned strongly on certain common issues that can be said to be broadly supported by the public) or any sort of moral authority to govern. By any measure, being a plurality winner is not a claim to having “won the election,” you would need to have either an outright majority, which has never occured under MMP, or a mandate to govern by coalition, like the government has.
2 This claim is misleading. While National received a higher number of Party Votes, they also received a lower proportion of the total party vote than in any of the cited elections. This can be easily verified on the Elections site. This is the same trick National used all the time in government when claiming “record spending” in particular areas of the budget: yes, the raw numbers have gone up. That’s because the population has grown. The relative percentage figures are also highly relevant.
3 Because I know National MPs have been having difficulty adding up their figures lately, this is 22.22.%, or roughly one out of every five terms of government has included a Chancellor who was not from the party that won the plurality of Party Votes. My previous wording is careful here because during one of those terms of government, the coalition partner switched allegiances, instating a Chancellor from the party that won the plurality. Germany’s system is a little weird in this regard in that it’s parliamentary like ours, but it doesn’t allow a vote of no confidence in a Chancellor without proposing a new one, so snap elections can’t happen. It is of course, very stable and efficient, like their system for their Bundesrat, the other legislative chamber, where the seats are simply delegations sent from each State government.
4Note that I’m not supporting either that the threshold remain this high or that the lifeboat rule be repealed- I am simply pointing out that National has repeatedly tried to game our electoral system to be more favourable towards them, and continued to reject changes if they don’t go the way they like.
Correction: Andre correctly points out in this comment that in ’99 Labour did win a plurality of the party vote, my comment that National had a higher result under Shipley was in fact due to a rushed and mistaken reading of the results.
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- Thank you
This is a column to say thank you. So many of have been in touch since Mum died to say so many kind and thoughtful things. You’re wonderful, all of you. You’ve asked how we’re doing, how Dad’s doing. A little more realisation each day, of the irretrievable finality of ...1 week ago - Determining the Engine Type in Your Car
Identifying the engine type in your car is crucial for various reasons, including maintenance, repairs, and performance upgrades. Knowing the specific engine model allows you to access detailed technical information, locate compatible parts, and make informed decisions about modifications. This comprehensive guide will provide you with a step-by-step approach to ...1 week ago - How to Become a Race Car Driver: A Comprehensive GuideIntroduction: The allure of racing is undeniable. The thrill of speed, the roar of engines, and the exhilaration of competition all contribute to the allure of this adrenaline-driven sport. For those who yearn to experience the pinnacle of racing, becoming a race car driver is the ultimate dream. However, the ...1 week ago
- How Many Cars Are There in the World in 2023? An Exploration of Global Automotive StatisticsIntroduction Automobiles have become ubiquitous in modern society, serving as a primary mode of transportation and a symbol of economic growth and personal mobility. With countless vehicles traversing roads and highways worldwide, it begs the question: how many cars are there in the world? Determining the precise number is a ...1 week ago
- How Long Does It Take for Car Inspection?Maintaining a safe and reliable vehicle requires regular inspections. Whether it’s a routine maintenance checkup or a safety inspection, knowing how long the process will take can help you plan your day accordingly. This article delves into the factors that influence the duration of a car inspection and provides an ...1 week ago
- Who Makes Mazda Cars?Mazda Motor Corporation, commonly known as Mazda, is a Japanese multinational automaker headquartered in Fuchu, Aki District, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. The company was founded in 1920 as the Toyo Cork Kogyo Co., Ltd., and began producing vehicles in 1931. Mazda is primarily known for its production of passenger cars, but ...1 week ago
- How Often to Replace Your Car Battery A Comprehensive GuideYour car battery is an essential component that provides power to start your engine, operate your electrical systems, and store energy. Over time, batteries can weaken and lose their ability to hold a charge, which can lead to starting problems, power failures, and other issues. Replacing your battery before it ...1 week ago
- Can You Register a Car Without a License?In most states, you cannot register a car without a valid driver’s license. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule. Exceptions to the Rule If you are under 18 years old: In some states, you can register a car in your name even if you do not ...1 week ago
- Mazda: A Comprehensive Evaluation of Reliability, Value, and PerformanceMazda, a Japanese automotive manufacturer with a rich history of innovation and engineering excellence, has emerged as a formidable player in the global car market. Known for its reputation of producing high-quality, fuel-efficient, and driver-oriented vehicles, Mazda has consistently garnered praise from industry experts and consumers alike. In this article, ...1 week ago
- What Are Struts on a Car?Struts are an essential part of a car’s suspension system. They are responsible for supporting the weight of the car and damping the oscillations of the springs. Struts are typically made of steel or aluminum and are filled with hydraulic fluid. How Do Struts Work? Struts work by transferring the ...1 week ago
- What Does Car Registration Look Like: A Comprehensive GuideCar registration is a mandatory process that all vehicle owners must complete annually. This process involves registering your car with the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and paying an associated fee. The registration process ensures that your vehicle is properly licensed and insured, and helps law enforcement and other authorities ...1 week ago
- Gaza: Aotearoa Must Support Independent Investigation into Mass GravesTe Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...2 days ago
- Release: Working together on consistent support for veterans this Anzac Day
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...4 days ago - Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...4 days ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...4 days ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...5 days ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cards
The Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...5 days ago - Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...5 days ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...5 days ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...6 days ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...6 days ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...6 days ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...6 days ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...6 days ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...1 week ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...1 week ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...2 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...2 weeks ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...2 weeks ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...2 weeks ago
- Significant step forward in fixing cruel and unjust pastA significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...3 weeks ago
- Missed opportunity but NZ will surely one day recognise the right to a sustainable environmentNew Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Don’t cut our lunches – clear message sent to GovernmentTens of thousands of people are demanding the Government commits to fully funding free and healthy school lunches. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...3 weeks ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...3 weeks ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...3 weeks ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...3 weeks ago
- Pharmac Chair appointed
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...2 hours ago - Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...24 hours ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...1 day ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...1 day ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...2 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...3 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...3 days ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...4 days ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...4 days ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...5 days ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...5 days ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...5 days ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...5 days ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...6 days ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...6 days ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...6 days ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...6 days ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...6 days ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...6 days ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...7 days ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...1 week ago
- Trade relationship with China remains strong“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...1 week ago
- PM’s South East Asia mission does the businessPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...1 week ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East AsiaNew Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...1 week ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...1 week ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...1 week ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...1 week ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...1 week ago
- Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visitForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...1 week ago
- Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac DayScience, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...1 week ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...1 week ago
- Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...1 week ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...1 week ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...1 week ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...1 week ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...1 week ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...1 week ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...1 week ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...2 weeks ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...2 weeks ago
- Inside the home of New Zealand’s greatest crime writer
Ngaio Marsh House is one of Christchurch’s best kept secrets – and contains more than a few mysteries of its own. Trust Ngaio Marsh to leave more than a few mysteries scattered through her house long after her departure. For a start, there’s the curious concrete portal in the garden, ...2 hours ago - ‘Apologies to Dvořák’: How a serenade for strings cemented one of New Zealand TV’s strongest...Appointment viewing has been lost to the mists of time, but memories of Montana Sunday Theatre can still be conjured by hitting play on a particular piece of classical music. “You’re not going to be able to sell it.” Over 30 years on, Karen Bieleski still recalls how the task ...3 hours ago
- An Ode to .. King Luxon
Performance Review King Luxon sat behind His massive polished oak desk. It is Performance Review time. There is a knock on the door. “Enter!” says the King. In steps Minister of Disabilities and Carer Pedicures, Penny Simmonds. “I can explain everything …” she begins. “Fine,” says King Luxon, pressing the ...4 hours ago - In the studio with artist power couple Claudia Kogachi and Josephine JelicichThe pair opened their first fully collaborative exhibition, Nina for Flowers, last Saturday. Gabi Lardies visited their studio to find out who Nina is and what working together was like. ‘It didn’t start out like, ‘This is a show about Nina,’” says Josephine Jelicich, gripping a thermos of peppermint tea. ...6 hours ago
- An ode to the muesli bar, a national treasureThank you, Dr Maximilian Oskar Bircher-Benner, for your brilliant invention. I’m another mid-20s Kiwi who had an OE last year. I hopped on my bicycle where France meets the Atlantic and cycled east. I pedalled through the Loire Valley, down rivers lined with willows and ancient wisteria-draped chateaus. I relished ...6 hours ago
- Government urged to hit the gas on revamp of road user charges
Infrastructure New Zealand is pushing for new road user charges to be brought in quicker to help relieve pressure on strained transport funding. ...17 hours ago - US student Palestine protests against Israel’s war on Gaza inspire global action
Asia Pacific Report From France to Australia, university pro-Palestine protests in the United States have now spread to several countries with students pitching on-campus camps. And students at Columbia and other US universities remain defiant as campuses have witnessed the biggest protests since the anti-Vietnam war and anti-apartheid eras in ...19 hours ago - Former Te Whatu Ora chairperson Rob Campbell criticises Health NZ's 'savings' directi...Rob Campbell said it shows "poor management" and is "frankly irresponsible". ...21 hours ago
- ‘To lead is to serve’ – Governor-General to call PM election in Solomon IslandsRNZ Pacific The race to form the next government of Solomon Islands could be a tight one, with no single party emerging from the election with enough seats to govern. Caretaker prime minister Manasseh Sogavare’s Our Party did the best, securing 15 out of the 50 seats in the House. ...21 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards – FastTrackWatch: The Case for the Government’s Fast Track BillAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) New Zealand Government’s Fast Track legislation. Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government ...22 hours ago
- NZ and Türkiye pledge cooperation during natural disastersThe two countries have "a long history of coming to each other's aid", including after the 2023 Turkish earthquakes, Winston Peters says. ...1 day ago
- Waste not, want not: New series Food Waste Kitchen turns food trash into treasureTara Ward talks to presenter Naomi Toilalo about the new TV show that turns food waste into a three course feast. Naomi Toilalo is standing in the warehouse at Good Neighbour Tauranga, helping unpack the two-and-a-half tonnes of rejected food that will arrive at the community support hub that day. ...1 day ago
- Vaping regulations fight 'immeasurably harder' under coalition – campaignerFocus on Politics - Successive governments have claimed crack downs on youth vaping, but the bending and breaking of rules seems pervasive. ...1 day ago
- Dog of the month: Scout, who is so independent she could be a catScout is our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Scout’s human, Avril, for her support. Dog name: Scout (named after the little girl in To Kill a Mockingbird – she inherited the independent spirit ...1 day ago
- ‘I don’t know if we were brave or stupid’: Megan Alatini on changing reality TVMegan Alatini takes us through her life in TV, including ‘terrible’ daytime TV, the class of Carol Hirschfeld and her most embarrassing TrueBliss moment. When she responded to a vague newspaper ad asking “do you have what it takes to be a popstar?” 25 years ago, Megan Alatini never guessed ...1 day ago
- Behind the counter: Wellington shopkeepersA new exhibition in Wellington showcases the faces behind your local goods and services. Back in 1977, when I was a fine arts student at the University of Canterbury, I took a series of photographs of Christchurch shopkeepers. The photos were for a calendar – a project for my end ...1 day ago
- Iranian Solidarity Group New Zealand Condemns Toomaj Salehi's Death Sentence And The New Aggres...
Toomaj and his resistance to tyranny through his songs have become an icon for the youth of Iran, so his sentence has hit the nation hard. Toomaj Salehi is not the first artist to pay the price for standing with the people. ...1 day ago - Short story: Calf Creek, by Anna ScaifeMy cousin Dylan and I spotted these big eels under the bridge that summer. We watched them lounging under the dark weed, facing into the flow of water, their mouths frozen open. Dylan and I couldn’t stop thinking about those eels. The night we went down to the creek, we ...1 day ago
- Newsroom welcomes the Secret DiaryNewsroom, home of satire. My long-running weekly satirical series The Secret Diary has moved to Newsroom and will appear every Saturday, with Victor Billot’s wildly popular satirical Odes continuing to appear every Sunday. Diaries, Odes – while serious political columnists toil at meaningful opinions and stroke their chins to an ...1 day ago
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Really informative post Matthew, excellent information, much appreciated, thank you.
nick smith is delusional and extremely bitter over the election results and it shows. Will be interesting to see how he responds to the newshub article, his ego is massive and it will be his downfall.
Love our MMP system, we are very lucky to have such a system in NZ.
Smith isn’t the only one, it’s clearly an agreed line by the entire front bench of the opposition, and it’s wearing incredibly thin. New Zealanders, including about some 10% or so of the people who voted National, clearly like their new government, and trying to undermine its legitimacy is only going to hurt National’s polling even further with reasonable kiwis. (although I suppose their base might like it?)
And yes, I broadly support MMP, although I’m not saying it couldn’t be further improved- I think I’ve said elsewhere that our threshold should probably be lowered to about 1-2%, and I’ve got some further proposals written down that I’ve been meaning to send off to the Green Party to consider for next election, such as a multi-winner electorate system using STV while still retaining the Party Vote to determine list seats.
After some fluster, National now seem to be running this line in a consistent and tidy fashion – I’d say their PR company and focus groups have done their work.
Only interested in “winning”, don’t care less about the good of NZ.
Yeah, I expect this is the same sort of strategy they ran with Helen Clark where they said “give us any weakness, no matter how small, and we’ll repeat it over and over again and hope it sticks.”
We should make them look stupid and then laugh them out of the room each time they try this nonsense, but if you see below, I’m not 100% sure this isn’t an orchestrated long-term strategy to get at MMP, and it’s just they’ve now run out of subtle ways to strike at it and are worried they have no way back into power for a long time- sorta like where Labour was after Clark resigned.
For every four Kiwis who voted Labour, five Kiwis voted National.
That’s the underlying fact that Nick Smith is highlighting, and helping to pour more focus on to this is only going to help them.
No it’s not, your misframing of this as “it’s about Labour vs National” instead of “it’s about how many kiwis voted for the government” is in fact the problem.
This government received more of the party vote than the previous one in 2014, which didn’t even get 50% of the party vote.
I will note that the Policy page does require that we get used to the fact that New Zealand is now an MMP country, so I would be very careful about this sort of framing in the future on my threads. 🙂
CV that’s just plain silly; as you well know Labour isn’t by itself the government. There are of course two other parties involved that quite a few kiwis voted for. Even on your own terms that’s a fail.
What New Zealanders haven’t quite gotten their collective heads around is that in any MMP system, voting is only part one of the game. Part two happens when the parties look at the numbers the election handed them and then negotiate to for a govt. It’s a two step process.
Most of our MMP elections, save two, have yielded fairly simple numbers from the election … such that the second stage of negotiating the govt was a mere formality. We became complacent about it; this last election demonstrated otherwise.
I think what you’ve described are the reasons for CV saying that National shouldn’t be helped by pouring more focus on the point that Smith and other nats keep bleating on about.
Eh, if New Zealanders don’t want government decided by parties that won’t commit to what sort of governments they’d form before the election, they should stop voting for parties like New Zealand First. *shrug*
If you didn’t vote for them and don’t like it, you’ve already done your part to preventing coalition negotiations being a thing.
The thing is, New Zealand First actually did a good job handling them this time, and National was happy with them, right up to the moment they found out they lost, lol.
And that’s possibly a fair point Matt. How many people voted for NZ1 in the unrealistic expectation they’d go into coalition with National? Impossible to know.
On the other hand Winston made it crystal clear he was not going to commit until after election, so anyone who voted for NZ1 can scarcely complain. It’s a legitimate position to take and it’s worked for them.
Sure, that may be right, but what’s it got to do with the issue of what CV actually said?
Count me in on this too Cinny,
Matthew I am so over national now, they are nothing but a bloody joke now, since they had a notion “they were born to rule” then it was taken away and reality set in so they just restort to the old tried and failed repetitive method;
say it again, and again, and again, and again, and again,;….You gert the point eh?
“if you repeat it enough times it will become the truth”
National = hollow politicians.
We should ignore them as they did to us for nine years, then they will desist?
I think we should at least wave olive branches at them- that is, we should offer to develop policy that they would support if they’re returned to government in a future election, (because getting things in place that we like that they won’t repeal later is a good idea) or to give them reasonable concessions where they point out legitimate areas to improve legislation from the Government parties’ perspective. (for instance, we should revisit and support their proposal for more flexible parental leave at a later date) But if they are just being obstructionists for the sake of it, we shouldn’t make any special effort to accommodate them, and we should tighten up the rules to prevent unreasonable procedural tricks.
A good example of an area the government could take the high road on is by restoring proactive release of Ministerial diaries. It would reduce the unprecedentedly high use of written questions, restore open access to government information as per Labour’s agreement with the Greens, and provide valuable information the press can use to pre-emptively verify stories without having to go to the government for comment. The only way it ever ends up being a loss is if the government does something embarrassing, in which case, well, it deserves to be embarrassed.
Why? How is increasing the prominence and role of National in the governing process going to help LAB/GR win a second term?
Because not everything has to be a knock-down drag-out fight. Sometimes inviting your opponent to take a low blow in front of the ref is a valid strategy.
Not really. They may not repeal it but chances are that they will adjust it and make it worse.
And we’ll be the ones compromising our values in the first place because they won’t shift. This seems to be how the centre has shifted to the right over the last few years and decades. The Left compromises and then the right go even further rightwards when in power. When the Left get back in power they compromise to the right again to get policy that the right will support.
Seems to be a vicious cycle that will end up destroying our society.
Except in this case their values perfectly align with what we want to do.
I am familiar with the arguments for opposing centrism, but, speaking cautiously, this is an area where we might actually reach a reasonable consensus with National. (If we don’t, then by all means we should bull ahead full-steam)
That’s exactly it CG, repeat it enough… just like joyce with the ‘hole’, nats are such an ego driven party, reflected in their refusal to admit they lost.
Matthew I def agree with your comments, MMP does need a bit of fine tuning and the olive branch sentiments, well said
I think the Nats are starting to suffer from “Jacinda Derangement Syndrome”.
I think it’s more fundamental than that, they’ve been suffering MMP derangement syndrome since Clark, and the Key government just gave them a brief reprieve. It’s back in full force now that they’ve lost, even though last time they lost their first election after being in government, it was to a three-way arrangement and Labour wasn’t the biggest party. Hmmm. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Not just National, Labour has been systematically undermining and getting rid of parties on the left, reducing the number of potential MMP partners. Labour activists celebrated when Mana went down the gurgler and Labour consolidated those votes. Labour activists celebrated when Greens repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, and Labour consolidated those votes.
Both major parties have worked hard to remake NZ as once again a 2 party state and this recent election shows strong progress in this direction.
I wouldn’t disagree with you on Labour and Māori political parties, for sure. If you’re thinking of the Alliance, my understanding is that their demise wasn’t really much to do with Labour.
There are minority views that Labour should try to eat the support of every party it can, but they don’t seem to be hugely influential on electoral strategy, at least for the moment.
No, their demise was Jim Anderton and a few other leaders being shown to be corrupt.
“their demise was Jim Anderton and a few other leaders being shown to be corrupt.”
Yes , and I suspect with Helen Clarke conducting from behind the curtain.
The local National member for Otaki, known for his powerful intellect, has been peddling the same argument in the local Kapiti Observer weekly.
Thank you Graeme. Please feel free to borrow any of my examples or arguments in rebutting this malicious nonsense- when I blog on my personal site I license things for anyone to reproduce, even in full, so long as they provide credit, or to repurpose for their own use. Anyone wanting to use my posts on TS can consider them available under the same license. (CC-BY, for those familiar with Creative Commons)
That letter by Nick Smith highlights and reiterates a deep-seated problem with National, which is that, in their view, the plurality winner should be in Government.
National has cannibalised pretty much all competition on the Right and they are indeed the single-largest party in NZ. It goes against the neoliberal rulebook and dogma that when you have wiped out all competition (on the Right) and are the largest/strongest you are not declared the winner.
I believe that National really believes that they have been denied what’s rightfully theirs, according to their ‘ideology’ that is.
All this gives us a very insightful look into the mind-set of neoliberal politicians and why they are fundamentally unfit to govern on behalf of all of us in New Zealand since their motto is the opposite of this one: for the many, not the few.
Also there are more young people voting now–neoliberal is dying
There is more of us then them 🙂
I’m happy for National to continue to whinge.
Whiners don’t win friends, and they are in the position they are simply because no one – apart from their puppet party (the 0.1%ers) ACT – wants to be friends with them. So as long as they continue to act in bad faith and whinge, they will remain in opposition, and they can remain there forever as far as I’m concerned. Good Riddance.
I’m happy for them to whinge, sure, but not if doing so is attacking the legitimacy of the election result or the government formation. They need to be soundly rebutted and mocked each and every time they do so, because if they’re not made to hurt for doing it, they’ll start pulling out Trump’s bag of tricks every time an election doesn’t go their way, and nobody wants that.
You’re not suggesting they would invite the Russians* to meddle are you Matthew? 😉
And just look at how Trumps bag of tricks is doing now in the States one year on! The Repugnant Party is in disarray. The Democrats could almost field a Donkey as candidate and it would win.
But the fact is, so long as they continue to deny the reality that their policies do not find favour with the majority, they will consign themselves to the opposition benches, and as the majority of their policies are toxic anyway – I’m very happy for that status to continue. They were only ever able to hold the treasury benches through the support of Peter Dunne (who could never make his mind up about important issues anyway so just went with the status quo) and the Maori Party (who just wanted to be at the table). When this support melted away (and it is never likely to come back) they can never form a government again, because there just isn’t the support. One party is highly unlikely to ever form government under MMP on its own – but that seems to be National’s thinking.
*Actually I think Putin’s quite happy to meddle all by himself… (or else he has no power over his minions)
No, I’m not suggesting collusion, merely attacking democracy and the media, which in my books is actually far worse, and essentially the only thing that can be reasonably regarded as treachery in a democratic society.
If you don’t like how the results of an election are determined in a democracy, you don’t attack the legitimacy of the result: you propose to change the law. The Nats know nobody wants to change the law, so they’re just attacking democracy instead.
I’m incredibly happy the Nats are on the opposition benches, and would love for them to permanently or semi-permanently consign themselves there. While UF has finally disbanded, (hooray!) I wouldn’t count the Māori Party out permanently until 2020. I am presuming after failing to return to Parliament this time, however, that the Mana Party is effectively dead and buried as a political entity. I agree that the Nats are unlikely to form an MMP government alone- in fact, the system is decidedly unfriendly to that concept, and party votes for smaller parties tend to be slightly more effective in getting seats under MMP due to the nature of the remainder system we use to assign list seats, so our system explicitly rewards coalition-building, even though we’ve been delivering massive party vote totals to both Labour and National that discourage that behaviour.
Mana, Māori and the IP are now dead. They may continue as an organisation like the Alliance but they’re never going to be in parliament.
I suspect you’re right by the way the Māori Party is acting in public, but my rule since New Zealand First’s brief foray below the threshold is that no political party is dead until it’s dead for two elections. 🙂
Don’t be so sure. Hillary Clinton would probably still lose the election if held today.
In fact, a full year into Trump’s election win, and the Democratic Party is polling at a 25 year low.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/07/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-democrats-taxes/index.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/finally-a-poll-trump-will-like-clinton-even-more-unpopular
And the Repugnants are polling even lower. Indeed they just manage to break 30% approval barrier.
While both parties sit at rock bottom in approval ratings:
This was evidenced in the huge swing to the Democrats in the recent elections.
eg New Jersey and Virginia
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/08/meet-the-15-people-who-made-history-in-the-2017-election.html
Never underestimate the ability of democrats to seize defeat from the jaws of victory by being incredibly stupid and corrupt, Macro. That’s how we got Trump in the first place.
Don’t underestimate the power of the meddling in social media Matthew – particularly that in the crucial states where just a few thousand votes swayed the Election – such as Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/us/politics/russia-facebook-twitter-election.html
The Bots targeted possible swing voters in these states – just what influence they had in the final outcome is of course unsure – but it is not inconceivable that the outcome may have been quite different had they not been active.
Putin can deny it all he likes – but the fact of the matter is there is now more and more evidence coming to light that Russia is running disruption in the West on sensitive issues. Not only in the US – but also in the Brexit vote:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets
And in Germany:
https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-botnet-promotes-far-right-messages-in-german-election/
It would appear that there is a continual programme of sowing seeds of discontent by Russian operatives. What better way to keep the West weak – United they stand – divided they fall.
The only problem is the fact the media supports National.
And a lot of people still believe what they read and see on the news.
We need to create a democratic media.
Ed – the media supported National the last election – and look how well it went for them.
Yes I know the “talkback” and the Herald are full of hatred and fear and loathing of anything progressive, but even so those blowhards aren’t everyone. They represent a vocal minority but whingers don’t make friends easily. People look for positive rather than negative – unless they just want to feel miserable. So let them whine – they will turn more people off in the end and those who are turned off will then see the good that is being done.
Actions as they say speak louder than words.
I wish I was as confident about my fellow NZers as you.
I feel many are easily manipulated by the media – through fear, envy and other tricks they use to get people to act against their own interests.
Sadly, a significant percentage of our population is either apathetic or ignorant about politics, a situation fostered by the corporate media. This makes them vulnerable to the lies pushed by the National Party and amplified by the media.
Look at how many people listen to Hosking….
To back Ed up…
I may have told a couple stories about my Dad, lifelong Labour Party voter, former Secretary to the Treasury, and implementer of hippy Green Party-endorsed economics ideas like a Gross National Happiness index at that bastion of right-wing thought, the Treasury before. I think it’s time for another one.
Well, guess where he gets his news? If you guessed from TVNZ, you’d be correct. Guess what happened during the hobbit law fiasco? I carpooled with him at the time, and I think I mentioned it in passing, and he was parroting anti-union lines straight from the TV news and was worried we would lose the movies from NZ if we didn’t crush unions.
If they can turn around a solid Labour voter like my father on a core issue like industrial relations, as used as he is to spin having been a civil servant in various capacities for a huge chunk of his life, then they can probably make a lot of headway with people who are not critical consumers of news, as my Dad will often take news with a grain of salt in both directions.
(In fact, my habit of trying to be scrupulously fair in posts is developed from him schooling me on how government sometimes actually does have good reasons for what it does, even when it’s a National government)
I have several friends who, if you don’t talk politics, come across as lovely, kind, caring people.
Then politics comes to the fore and one hears the regurgitions of Hosking views – which of course are not kind, caring philosophies.
It seeps in.
This is perhaps the most famous example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Brainwashing_of_My_Dad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=813V_GId5N8
Have these same people contributed positively to their family, extended family, friends and community?
Have you ever considered that their politics is just as valid as yours – and has just been as important in creating the NZ we have now, as your (neoliberal introducing, TPP signing) brand of politics?
What’s your point? That political positions based on lies are equally invalid?
Or that “he did it too” makes it ok?
That people can be “lovely, kind, caring” even if they don’t hold the same political perspectives as you.
Deputy Clinton Pell after seeing an African American baby.
Yep hit1er had a set of kitten youtubes to rival Stalin’s – Churchill was always jealous of that and their fake friend numbers.
Have you considered that the point is actually that their approach to politics is what’s at fault in the lack of care experienced by people on the other side of a political divide from them, rather than someone else’s narrow-mindedness? A little fairness, charity, and kindness from both sides is necessary, at least in the initial approach.
If people are kind in other areas of their life, they are capable of carrying that over to politics in general, and managing the anger of how their political opponents are proposing to undermine their lives.
I read CV’s point as ‘people are complex and all of us fallible, none of us should be overly judgemental’.
Recently I was reading up some very interesting research correlating the Big Five Personality traits and voting patterns in the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits
Turns out scoring highly on “Openness to experience” is strongly predictive of voting Democrat. And given how inheritable these traits are, it would seem voting is a much more instinctual act that we would like to think.
Linky for the UK results:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/populist-personalities-the-big-five-personality-traits-and-party-choice-in-the-2015-uk-general-election/
Governing a country isn’t about kindness. Not if you want the country to last longer than three generations.
These kinds of people get that. Governing a country is about creating a robust, creative, productive nation which is able to look ahead and respects individual ability and character.
Lefties are sometimes spot on – there are parts of society which are too harsh and unfair on people who don’t deserve it. Righties are also sometimes spot on – as a nation and as a society we can’t afford to be a soft touch and get comfortably flabby on the couch.
That’s one characteristic of a liberal democracy – all personality types and perspectives get to play a role.
Who said anything about governing? I was talking about us ordinary people discussing politics, CV, as was Ed.
Personality types can play a role, but they have to be able to work with each other, which some do better than others. It’s not unreasonable to point out that sometimes people’s tone shifts to an unacceptable one when political discussion is involved. I once had a kindly looking man suddenly start yelling at me at the top of his lungs about taxation being theft when I did nothing more than mention the Green Party. That’s not an acceptable thing to do no matter your personality type or political affiliation if you want people to treat your politics as valid.
Like it or not, people’s social skills end up having bearing on how persuasive their arguments are.
Classic conservatives tend to value politeness, manners and etiquette. Of course, there are angry, volatile people from all sides of the political spectrum.
So the main problem you have with these people is not that they regurgitate Hosking talking points (Ed’s comment) nor with their politics in general, but with their rudeness and deficient social skills?
Really?
Trying to frame the other side as being generally uncaring and nasty is a tired political trope. No one believes it apart from tribalists and partisans.
generally uncaring and nasty
The alternative explanation is that they are stupid and gullible (like me), and at least that one’s backed up by Neuroscience.
It’s considered nasty to say so though.
“Stupid and gullible” – sorta like pretending that the new government could have renegotiated sufficient substance in the TPP in the couple of days they had over there to turn it into a good deal for NZ?
Yes, the left wing is more intellectual and conceptual than the right on general personality type, but in of itself that’s far from being any more influential or successful in a real world sense.
Doubt it.
doubt it
Cf: The Brain Adapts To Dishonesty, Garrett et al 2016 in Nature Neuroscience for a plausible mechanism to explain why propaganda works.
neuroscience is a great field, but psychology is the discipline which understands why propaganda works and why precisely accurate facts are not particularly important 99.9% of the time.
Although they are complimentary disciplines, I’ll pay more attention to the assertions of psychologists when their results are more reliably replicable.
Good grief CV. I am done engaging with you on this particular discussion, because quite frankly you willfully misinterpret every single thing I say, and it’s like talking to a brick wall.
But Ed is referring to his friends regurgitation of hoskings blather, not their politics.
This is the problem.
People regurgitate garbage without inspection or investigation of said garbage.
Interesting ed. Would those same friends pretend to not know you to maintain their privilege I wonder.
Yes Matthew – that maybe the case for some….
But for others..
Social media ‘outstrips TV’ as news source for young people
I gather that I am of your dad’s generation.. And I don’t have TV – I gain my news from RNZ and the internet. My phone keeps me posted on breaking news.
+ 1 –many are easily manipulated by the media but with one caveat.
The over 30’s are easily manipulated —-under 30’s are way more wised up having grown up on social media
I’m technically in that former category now. =/ Still a millenial though, which I think is mostly what makes the difference. We actually like to READ our news. 🙂
Yeah, it’s a huge problem with corporate media, eh? I’m not sure exactly how you’d solve it, other than having public media, like RNZ, to counter that message.
(IMO, we should probably sell off TVNZ at this stage, because they perform no worthwhile public service to speak of, but include a lease-back provision for their studios so RNZ can make video content)
I would renationalise the airwaves ( part of the commons) so they are democratic not owned by the 0.1%.
Grassroots radio stations would take the place of large corporations running the airwaves.
Can you imagine how much the Nats would start interfering with government-run media? They already tried to starve out RNZ. I’m not sure that would be a solution so much as a declaration of war, and in that sort of circumstance you should generally be pretty sure you know how to bring them to checkmate before you make the first move.
Grassroots media, locally based.
That would be great if you could come up with a sustainable funding model that wasn’t vulnerable to central government interference, although I think we might also miss centrally-produced, professional quality radio and TV in that case.
Compare RNZ to local commercial radio- I expect you wouldn’t get much better quality than that on grassroots local media tbqh.
Democracy needs a different media landscape.
Tax people to get a reliable funding for such media.
When National “won” they invited all their friends to their victory celebration. Nobody else turned up.
Labour+Green+NZ1 > NAct
Therefore, NAct LOST
Simple.
“What this really seems to be about is an attack by the National Party on the very idea of MMP itself.”
That’s actually quite serious. Because assuming they have a game plan here (as opposed to just being thick and/or arseholes), the only way that will work is if sufficient NZers support it. Nasty and divisive in order to gain power. National are so far down this path now.
I’m beginning to think this is actually a long-term game-plan playing out, right now. They’ve been trying to engineer consent to remove or gut MMP through all sorts of methods because it makes it very difficult for National to compete while still doing the sorts of unpopular ripoffs they like to.
More subtle methods, like the 2011 referendum, or trying to kill off support for the Greens and New Zealand First, haven’t been working to roll back MMP’s gains for Parties That Aren’t National, so they’re trying to rile up the base to support them removing it on a partisan basis next time they’re in government. I don’t think it will work, but the issue is that it only has to be done once, and from then on Labour, the Greens, and New Zealand First will all suffer until MMP is put back. And if National make any progress on this issue, then there is a real chance they will simply push this through on a partisan basis when next they think they’re sufficiently popular to pull it off without killing themselves in the next election.
I think we have to treat each attempt to roll back to a less democratic system than MMP, or to “reform” it in a way that kills off smaller parties, as another potential existential threat to MMP and thus to truly representative government in New Zealand. And I think I’ve been consistent in proposing things I know would hurt the left electorally if they’re the right thing to do in our democracy (hell, that splitting advice to the Nats is one of them! If they were smart they’d pretend to have a spat and split ASAP, purely because they’ll poll better once they establish themselves as two “seperate” parties, whether it’s a reality or a polite fiction.
…they’re trying to rile up the base to support them removing it on a partisan basis next time they’re in government.
That looks like the game plan to me, too. National now are effectively in opposition to NZ’s political system as well as to its government, and we should keep that in mind when reading National’s propaganda like the above from Nick Smith.
It would be one thing if they were just honest about it and said “yeah, we want to replace MMP, we don’t like it, here’s how much support we need to do it, (which might be a referendum, or a large party vote, or something else) and once we get that level of support in government, here’s our plan to change things.”
That’s how you do reform democratically. But they tried that already, kinda, in a classic National way, by misconstruing the promised MMP review into a referendum on keeping MMP. But they lost, and they’re still trying after being told the public don’t want their dumb ideas like Supplementary Member, or STV without any proportional list seats attached to it. Arguably the only difference between this government and the 1999 one is that New Zealand First has replaced the Alliance in the the new governing arrangement, and the Greens have a formal deal including ministries instead of sitting on the cross benches. What’s changed? National’s mates are gone, because they ate everyone but ACT in a desperate attempt to hold on for a fourth term, and NZF is centrist, so trying to boss them around doesn’t fail the sniff test quite as quickly.
I’m still optimistic they’ve misjudged this one and that it will backfire on them because they’ve opened fire way too early, and are looking like a bunch of sour losers instead of a strong opposition.
There’s also what could happen if what National are doing gets mixed up with this shit,
https://twitter.com/farmgeek/status/934916966770393088
That may be part of the riling up the support base. I have no doubt whatsoever that National are now a party would be quite happy to go down the Trumpian path if they think it will help them gain power.
Well, John Banks (ex-National MP) did say that if he wore his policies on his sleeve he would never be elected.
I think it’s safe to say that the same applies to National.
Being honest would ensure that they’d never get elected and so they lie, spin and deceive.
I think we need to explain it to them in words they can understand:
It’s like rugby, MMP elections in NZ are a game of two halves, if you win the first half but come to the end of the second half with fewer points than the other team, you have lost the game.
Complaining that because you won the first half the whole game should have been awarded to you is just plain sour grapes, but saying that the rules of the game require it is telling porkies too
Honestly, if parties actually need explaining that they can’t dictate how other parties vote in Parliament… (which is the implication of trying to control who they support into Govt) I don’t know if they honestly belong in Parliament anymore.
National doesn’t need it explained to them. They know how it works. they’re hoping to pull the wool over the eyes of the “Punters out in Punterland”*.
* Don Brash as reported in The Hollow Men by Nicky Hager. Hopefully I didn’t misremember it.
Yeah, that was in fact my point, lol.
I was trying to come up with an easy explanation for the people whose eyes it is thy are trying to pull the wool over
I think it was Bill actually and if IRC it was a secret tape recording of a conversation at a party function when when Bill referred to the “Punters”..
Yep here it is:
And all here on The Standard!
https://thestandard.org.nz/shock-revelation-taper-is-wellington-leftie/
Cautionary tale, Linda Clark; Party-going, Raymond Miller
Posted on March 1, 2007
The Hollow Men: A Study in the Politics of Deception
It’s the general view that National holds of voters anyway.
“It’s the general view that National holds of voters anyway.”
Yep! Sadly true.
Arrogant bunch.
The Australian Labour Party gained the most votes in their last election. Will Nick Smith be advocating that they become the ruling party in the Australian government?
You know, that example was so obvious, it entirely slipped my mind to include into the post, even though I used that same point on social media. LOL.
I held back from making the same obvious comparison myself. Nor to my recollection has there been much puerile whining from the Aussie media about a ‘coalition of losers’. Kiwis like to think how much smarter they are, but the Ockers do seem to have a better grasp on adding up numbers and determining who can form a govt or not.
Smith is no fool. He’s actually a smart guy; a blatant doofus lie such as this must be serving some purpose. He KNOWS National didn’t win the election; the fact of this cannot possible escape him on a daily basis.
What’s he’s doing is channeling the same post-modern ‘there is no such thing as truth, therefore any shit I make up is ok’ meme we see with Trump. Key was a sly master of it himself. If anyone challenged Smith on this he simply resorts to playing semantic games with the definition of ‘winning the election’.
And here’s probably a point worth thinking about. While Nick Smith knows National lost the election in terms of being able to form a govt, because they are the largest party he feels they won it. He’s clinging to a faulty model in his head, one that merges an entitled sense of ‘natural party of govt’, a post-election euphoria, a long standing resentment around MMP and no small dose of bitterness.
National continued to poll at remarkably high levels for a third term govt, but for Key’s still unexplained resignation, National would have likely gone on to a fourth, possibly fifth term. The sense of being ‘cheated’ out something they surely feel is their due, must be palpable.
While I wouldn’t dismiss Matt’s analysis above, I’m not sure it’s a cold cabal of cynical masterminds issuing instructions to Nick Smith on what to put in his little newsletter. That gets the order of precedence wrong. More likely this is a perfect example of emotion trumping logic in a starkly silly fashion; but from this emotive detritus an anti-MMP forment will slowly emerge as a toxic toadstool.
The other thing that’s messy about the analogy with Australia is that essentially the Liberal and National parties in Australia are technically not a coalition, they are an electoral alliance, because they don’t run in the same seats/states. It’s the same thing as the CDU/CSU in Germany, who are essentially the same party. In the German examples, I counted the CDU and CSU together in terms of looking at who was the plurality winner.
I agree that Smith is absolutely misunderstanding MMP deliberately.
While I don’t think Smith’s newsletter is itself significant, you have to remember that this is a meme National have been putting out in its private communications to its base for quite some time now, from backbenchers’ social media, to these newsletters, likely also in internal party comms, and even some soft drops via off-the-cuff comments in interviews.
I actually disagree with you that Key’s continued presence would necessarily have guaranteed a fourth term, as his trick was essentially never spending his political capital on anything he didn’t think would gain him more political capital, with the obvious exception of his venture into the flag referendum, and it was always a strategy that would eventually make people suddenly very tired of him. I actually think he picked his exit point very carefully and was watching polling both on him personally and on the Nats in general, and deliberately exited just as a turning point had started, and boosted the Nats by having a handoff to a credible new leader ahead of the election with much fanfare, which actually gave the Nats a bump in the polls, even though Bill English was a disaster at campaigning last time, he was up against a much more popular leader, and oh look it happened again when Ardern took over. 😉
I think most of National’s “strong” result was from the media falling all over the stupid Joyce lie tactics.
never spending his political capital on anything he didn’t think would gain him more political capital,
Which is a very astute observation; being of course the essence of what a merchant banker is all about.
I’m not knocking your analysis, except to say that the idea ‘people would suddenly get tired of him’ is speculative and hard to prove. There’s precious evidence of it actually happening.
What I will agree with is that is was slowly becoming clear that Key really had no ideas on what to spend his immense capital on. I do agree that eventually the electorate might well have started asking him that hard question and not getting answers. But I still don’t see that as the critical factor in his resignation. I think he just got bored with it all and started seeing more downsides than positives.
Nor am I going to gainsay Adern’s clear electoral appeal. But in many respects I still think she was the fortunate beneficiary of some wonderful timing; timing that Goff and Cunliffe never enjoyed.
Well, there was a reasonably slow but steady trend away from National in the later months of Key’s leadership that had me quite optimistic about this election, and the leadership handover definitely reversed that, but I suppose you could argue that was down to something other than fatigue with key- it could just be that my own bubble was getting dramatically more tired of him, rather than the country as a whole. It’s always hard to call that one without an election to verify it.
Ardern’s timing was definitely helpful to her, for sure. It’s an open question how well she would have done at any other, less crazy time.
There is zero chance National will split into two. Parties can’t just be “manufactured.” The public would see through that easily enough.
Perhaps Nick did not choose his opening words well, since being the largest party is not the same as winning. But there is no doubt that National respects the constitutional right of the current government. In truth New Zealand has had a smooth transition from the old government to the new. For instance both the Speaker and Deputy Speaker were chosen by consensus. Hardly the case the case of National acting as wreckers, as happens with oppositions in some countries.
National also knows MMP is here to stay. The public has voted for it twice, with both referendums organised under National, being the ones that bought it in and the 2011 referendums. Hardly the actions of a party that can’t deal with MMP.
So National are looking to win under MMP in 2020. It would not take much voter shift for that to happen. So expect National to do its very best to show voters why this government will fail.
Already it is clear that Steven Joyce was right with the funding gap. Economists now accept that borrowing will be much larger under this government than under National. I reckon it will get worse. I see zero evidence that anyone in this government can actually say “no”.
Because National is the largest Party in Parliament they have the capacity (and parliamentary resources that go with size) to be a much more effective opposition than we have seen for many decades. For instance National will have a very larger and capable Research Unit than we have ever seen in the past, able to do the digging, as well as do the research on new policy options for 2020.
[MjW: Please see the top of my reply at 11.8.]
‘It would not take much voter shift for that to happen.’
It’s just the shift is going in the wrong direction for you, Stephen and the National Party.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7419-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-november-2017-201711220740
It would not take much voter shift for that to happen.
It wouldn’t take much voter shift to take National to 50%? Oh, yes it would. A 5% difference might not sound like much in itself, but history suggests shifting that much of the centre is highly unlikely – not even Key achieved it, and he was probably the slickest operator National’s going to get.
EDIT: although, to be fair, the extra votes the major parties arranged to issue themselves via the 5% threshold means you’d probably only need 48 or 49% to govern alone. Still a tough score to reach though, as Key demonstrated.
No: Joyce lied about the figures Labour put out before the election, and now you’re trying to re-write history, ie: lying.
Said budget allowed for more borrowing than National had planned, because there are significant repairs, both physical and social, that must be done where National has vandalised the fabric and infrastructure of society.
Assuming your anonymous economists can read, they would know that, so what’s this about them “now” “accepting” it?
Why do you tell these lies, Wayne?
Edit: Ed provides the answer to that question at 5.2.1.1.1.1: you tell the lies because you believe the lies. We need better wingnuts.
I have cautioned Wayne about that particular comment, so I would suggest not engaging him about said hole, either, because it’s unfair to require him not to make any assertions about its factuality when you’re asking him questions about it. Please stick to discussing whether Robertson’s budget will be tight instead.
I think you’ve left Dr. Mapp in a rather invidious position.
You should be careful which you refer to, and I will assume you meant the latter claim.
I will take you at your word that you believe they were mistaken rather than deliberately spinning.
Clearly Dr. Mapp has either been sloppy and ignorant, or dishonest. If the latter, he may well prefer to be seen as a player rather than a witless dupe, although obviously I think he’s both.
We’re considering the National Party’s ability to be honest and act in good faith. I maintain that they have neither of these qualities, and that Dr. Mapp’s “mistakes” fall into a familiar pattern.
What’s more humiliating for Dr. Mapp? Being grilled on his “mistakes” or being protected from having to defend them?
I respect your decision as moderator, but I urge you to consider its effect upon Wayne 😈
Well, to be fair, the reply thread blew up as I was cautioning him. I started writing when I was going to be in roughly your position. I’m gonna have to type shorter replies to get cautions in faster in the future, clearly.
As to holding Wayne to the fire- the greater claim has obviously been discredited, I don’t think there’s any point relitigating it, it just leads to unnecessary trolling. There is plenty of room for fiscal debate on the lesser claim of fiscal tightness that Joyce briefly mentioned in his original interview then insisted was the core of his point all along when he got thoroughly discredited. (why they haven’t kicked him out of the finance portfolio after that blunder, I don’t know, he certainly deserves it)
As to what humiliates the good doctor, I honestly have no particular interest in that just because we disagree, especially as he’s no longer inflicting laws that harm people on anyone. Most of my shadenfreude is reserved for those actively trying to deny people civil rights or economic necessities right now.
That is the reason that we use the moderator construction of:-
[handle: Give a short warning ]
By all means follow up with a longer comment if you choose to. But writing long cautions will often fall way behind the comment cycle.
It all feels a bit different when you start writing posts to just being a commenter. But be assured that there is generally method behind most of the procedures/madness that operates on the site.
As an author you can edit any comment in your own posts and you can shunt to OpenMike (vague memory of when I wrote the feature). The most common reason for an author would be because people are straying off your topic. Plus there are a number of other principles in the policy. But you’re almost certainly going to run through a learning curve.
The general rule is to not to delete either comments or content (use [deleted] for that) without reasonable transparency. Ie they either get an explanation or they look in the current OpenMike. Commenters get pissed off about stuff just going missing and so do other moderators when they have to clean up the (justifiable) whining.
But always remember to give your mentor, the backend forums, or me a yell if you could do with advice or need a bigger hammer
😈
BTW: Interesting posts and mostly useful debate on them.
Cheers Lynn, there were bound to be teething problems, hehe. I realised I had done it a dumb way as soon as I finished, hah.
Matthew,
Well, will Grant’s budget actually be as tight as was forecast by Labour prior to the election? I don’t think it will be. Not with all the cost pressures that Labour keeps talking about and on top of that the union pay claims.
In my view the next budget will have both more operational spending and more borrowing for capital expenditure than was originally mooted by Labour. Virtually all bank economists are now forecasting a higher level of capital borrowing than Labour originally forecast.
The interest on the borrowing forms part of the operating expenditure. As does the depreciation on capital items acquired, and on top of that capital charge on the assets acquired.
Now I know you don’t like me talking about this, but all this was the basis of Joyce’s claims prior to the election. He basically said he did not believe the basis of Labour’s out year budgets, that they would spend more than Labour was claiming. This is a legitimate debating point in a democracy, that at least the MSM realised that they could not “black out”.
If you want to censor it, well I guess you can, but it says more about you than me.
It says you’re arrogant and you think you are above and better than others imo.
OK, so you were talking about the tightness? That’s reasonable to have in contention, and I have no desire to “censor” that. What’s not reasonable anymore is claiming that Steven Joyce is smart enough to accurately read a spreadsheet that has a different labeling structure than he’s used to, or that he identified any actual error in Labour’s pre-election budget.
And yes, I am familiar with both Joyce’s initial claims, having watched his press conferenece in full to be sure I was being fair to him when I said he needed to resign. (And it is still my opinion that he owes Bill English, your party, and the public his resignation from his current position as a spokesman about public finances, and his undertaking never again to pursue any other such position, because he has clearly demonstrated he isn’t qualified, and is not able to admit when he made a mistake)
He initially claimed the fiscal tightness was a separate issue to the accounting error claim that he was demonstrably proven wrong about by literally every economist and data expert who commented on the matter. He later retreated to his position that the accounting problem would eventuate from the fiscal tightness so that he could claim to not have been wrong, but if you go back through and watch his press conference, you will see he initially painted them as two seperate issues.
As to Joyce’s lesser claim, honestly, it wouldn’t bother me if it was true. He, English, and Key have run the country’s infrastructure into the ground with their do-nothing government, and a bit of extra debt digging us out of that hole is entirely reasonable. I think had PREFU been fully accurate, it would have been reasonable to say that Robertson could have stuck to the pre-election plan, but of course, on closer inspection there are looking to be hidden costs in several different ministries right now that will make things unrealistically tight even for the type of do-nothing budgets English liked to run.
As I said above, Smith may well KNOW National lost the election, but it’s clear from such ‘ill chosen words’ that he FEELS like they were cheated out winning it. And he’s not on his own; this didn’t appear in a vacuum.
Yes National will continue to respect Constitutional convention in Parliament, but it’s already clear from their antics in Parliament around the vote for the Speaker, and now this ongoing spam mail stunt, the entire Party is locked into a sore loser mentality for the duration of this term.
“Already it is clear that Steven Joyce was right with the funding gap” Ah no! Not one economist agreed with Steven Joyce when he said at the time there was an 11.7 billion hole in the funding. He LIED, Bill English LIED, and you are perpetuating the lie with comments like that, therefore any other credible comments you may wish to make are diminished by the fact you are prepared to be dishonest.
Please see 11.3.1 and 11.8 regarding restricting discussions about the rapid oxidation of Steven Joyce’s trousers to whether or not Grant Robertson’s budget will be tight, so that we can be fair to Wayne. Thanks. 🙂
Spin cycle severe a sign of panic in the gnat ranks weathervain Wayne just trying to help lol. We got enough for a remake of porkys here.
Parties can’t just be “manufactured.”
Really? What about the mid-1990s when the ACT Party was manufactured into existence to provide National with a support party? It worked for a couple of elections then it all turned to custard.
… both the Speaker and Deputy Speaker were chosen by consensus.
Really? Didn’t the Nats do a blackmail job on the govt. in the debating chamber just before the vote was taken?
The public has voted for it twice, with both referendums organised under National, being the ones that bought it in and the 2011 referendums. Hardly the actions of a party that can’t deal with MMP.
Heh. My recollection is they were forced into it by the strength of the public desire for a change of system. And the 2011 referendum was a thinly veiled attempt to try and reverse the decision and return to FPP. They lost. [btw, it’s brought – not bought]
Because National is the largest Party in Parliament they have the capacity (and parliamentary resources that go with size) to be a much more effective opposition than we have seen for many decades.
They’re the largest single party but in a Left/Right MMP situation that means naught and you know it. It doesn’t mean they are necessarily going to be a more effective opposition but definitely they will be very loud. However noise does not always equate with effectiveness.
ACT was not manufactured in the 1990’s by National. It was motivated by a strong view among certain people (Prebble, Douglas, Quigley, Gibbs and others) that NZ needed a proper libertarian party in the same way as the Greens have their voice for the left. National was seen as too centerist for free market libertarian types. ACT have now been on the scene and in parliament for over 20 years, although since 2014 has really been on life support. The last big win by Act was in 2008, when they had 6 MP’s (as I recall).
Even in Epsom, National did not give away the seat. Hide won it off Worth in 2005 in a quite a fight. On that basis National has done a deal with Act since 2011. No different to Labour and Anderton in Wigram.
Neither of the major parties can “manufacture” support parties. First, they don’t want to since they want to get the votes themselves. Second, the public would not buy it anyway.
The most they will do is do a deal with an authentic party that already has a seat, often won off them in a hard fought contest as was the case in Epsom in 2005. Or they will facilitate a party to win a seat off their opponent. An example being Labour effectively standing aside to help Winston win the Northland by-election.
As for the effectiveness of National in opposition, well we will see. Probably too early to really tell yet. But in my view the government has not looked very steady so far. Maybe it is early training wobbles which they will get through, but then again maybe not.
Yes, there was the public fiasco on the first day of parliament, which was actually about select committee positions. Once this was resolved, both Speaker and Deputy Speaker were selected unopposed, as was the agreed arrangement. But the look of panic on Chris Hipkins’s face did not look good for the government. And Simon Bridges certainly showed his coolness under pressure.
Alright, gish gallup catchup time:
National was a manufactured party itself, a grand coalition to deny Labour government when you were all scared it would be full of communists.
New Zealand needs ACT like it needs involuntary limb amputations.
National has given away the seat in Epsom, it’s just not being honest about it. If they want to keep giving away Epsom, they should withdraw Goldsmith rather than making him a professional loser.
National fundamentally is two constituencies, Wayne, and this is an outgrowth of its origin as a grand coalition to lock Labour out of government when it was the plurality winner decades ago when it first entered Parliament. Its urban liberals want very different things from its rural conservatives, and they butt heads reasonably often. Accepting MMP will mean realizing that ceding some rhetorical and ideological ground to a potential coalition partner might hurt your party, but will likely grow your bloc. If there is ever an amicable split of the National Party, I suspect it would be for the better for National, and for New Zealand. National’s liberal base is never going to ACT, and National’s conservative base can’t govern without its liberal base, but has to go softly-softly on social issues while they’re in the same party. This is not a sustainable strategy for mobilizing them.
I think it’s too early to tell on both the opposition and the government, although to be honest I’m not yet hugely positive about either.
Matthew on that basis, all parties are manufactured.
Just as National is a coalition, so is Labour. At least three elements. Traditional working class, union dominated. Left university liberals. Both Clark and Arden being the epitome of that, both actually came from reasonably well off conservative homes. And Maori support, though maybe that is also socio-economic based.
Nationals internal coalition is well held together. Many of the urban liberals actually having farming backgrounds, (myself, McCully, Collins, English, Parata, etc).
New Zealand is still a small country. People know each other and have family across diverse socio-economic backgrounds. So the fact that parties, especially the major parties, are coalitions is a strength not a weakness.
In any event splitting does not help with electoral mathematics. You still get the same percentage, except it is split between two parties (a bit like the Labour and the Greens). The only way it would work is if one party was seat based and therefore produced a huge overhang. But voters would see that an incredible distortion of MMP and not accept it.
No, again, not all parties are mergers of fundamentally politically incompatible groups. Generally you need to be at most a half-axis away in an orthagonal direction on the political compass to be a compatible part of a single party’s constituency group in a proportional system like ours. Both Labour and National stretch those definitions, because they are old FPP parties trying to hold on to all of their old FPP constituencies, although Labour is doing better at shedding the dead wood to other parties than National are, possibly because of better policy compatibility with NZ First, possibly because they’ve also got the Greens to their left/liberal/environmental sides.
Labour is arguably a coalition between rural left-wing conservatives, and a reasonably natural consituency group of mild left-liberals and centre-liberals and left-moderates in both urban and regional areas, but the “odd group out” in their coalition is rapidly being lost to New Zealand First anyway, who have varying success in vacuuming up all the conservatives.
You’re assuming party votes stay the same when you split into parties aimed more specifically at two different constituencies, which would be true if the parties acted exactly the same and campaigned exactly the same as before. But if they each tailored themselves to the relevant groups better, that would likely allow them to grow their overall vote more than they could do individually, and to influence each others’ policies.
Neither of the major parties can “manufacture” support parties.
If you object to the term “manufacture” that is fine. It wasn’t my term. But what I can tell you is that the formation of ACT was part of a long term strategy to provide National with a political party to their Right that would support them in an MMP environment. On this subject I think I may know a little more than you.
there was the public fiasco on the first day of parliament, which was actually about select committee positions.
Correct. The Nats pulled a fast one over a matter usually convivially settled by all sides of the House in advance. It amounted to blackmail involving select committee positions. Bad looking start for the Opposition.
“The Nats pulled a fast one over a matter usually convivially settled by all sides of the House in advance.”
Am I right in suggesting Labour put up their own candidate for speaker when in opposition in the person of one T Mallard?
“Bad looking start for the Opposition.”
That’s not how virtually all of the MSM saw it. This article summed up what really lay behind the issue:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/98752771/the-new-government-failed-to-get-the-basics-right
Quite frankly Wayne, Simon Bridges looked like a nasty scowling sort of human being that day. Not a likeable person at all. You may call that coolness, I call it menacing and threatening. Why is it Act and National have so many of these unlikeable people in their midst?
No wonder people are so taken with a PM who actually really likes and enjoys people and wants them to have better opportunities. National was so often hell bent on slapping people down and telling them they were unworthy.
Gosh, so much cleanup here, Wayne.
Firstly: Consider this a caution that I will not accept any references to the $11.7b hole being true in the comments on my posts. It has been thoroughly discredited by economists, data journalists, and the media in general. His fallback claim I have no objection to, that the budget will be tight is basically a self-fulfilling prophecy, it’s hard not to get a tight budget when you’re dealing with an infrastructure deficit like we almost always get after a National government. You should be careful which you refer to, and I will assume you meant the latter claim.
I haven’t needed to moderate anyone on any of my posts just yet, but I will be aggressive on that topic, because it has been so well-established, and I’d like to maintain a record of light-touch moderation if possible.
I am glad you believe MMP is here to stay. It would be nice if the party’s rhetoric would catch up with this, and they would act like any of them had ever taken a POLS101 class, or even a maths class. If you have a word with any of them, please advise them on the difference between the words “majority” and “plurality,” and inform them that forming a government is what wins you an election. 😉 As professional communicators who claim to be good with numbers and whose jobs are to win elections, it’s not really credible that they don’t already know the difference between those two, but I will take you at your word that you believe they were mistaken rather than deliberately spinning.
It will take at least a six-percent shift from that latest poll, or a three-percent one if you want to assume that it’s out by the entire margin of error in favour of the Government. Both of those are large shifts in an ordinary campaign, and your lot shouldn’t expect that they’ll have a counter-movement to Jacinda. There is nobody in your reserves who could pull off the ten-point shift she did. And if it’s Bridges who’s looking to roll English, I’d expect to go down, not up. He’s like a more liberal version of Collins.
National are looking to be an arrogant, mean opposition like they were an arrogant, mean government. I can’t see it working for them to be quite honest, and a good 10% of their voters think the new government is doing well. I think National are about to discover the power of incumbency from the other end of the stick, and aren’t going to like it, but we’ll see who’s right soon enough.
If they change their tune and start being a positive opposition that tries to actually constructively implement policies, then maybe their outlook will change. But I think trying to throw their weight around as a large party isn’t going to work well from opposition.
Yes the gnats are playing yesterday’s game. Jacinda has changed the game. The game has changed, generationally. Some old hands are going to have to take some long walks off by themselves for the gnats to get it.
Be cautious, Jacinda hasn’t changed the game much so far, although she has a foothold from which to change the game.
LAB + GR 2017 is only 2.5% higher than LAB + GR losing after 3 terms in 2008.
“Jacindamania” is substantial compared to the 25% level Labour got used to subsisting at, but compared to even recent history, it’s still a minimal bounceback.
Wait. This is a question which gets to be decided ten and twenty years from now.
This from you? come on mate get serious. Do you just not want it to be true?
I’m not waiting, I’m making it the way I want it to be.
You can make your world however you want your world to be, not stopping you.
But to say just one month into the new government that Jacinda has ‘generationally changed the game’ is to my mind, jumping the gun.
I think that is a reasonable caution, although we should also bear in mind recent polling, (which gives over 80% odds of an outright Labour-Green government when you account of the margin of error) which likely reflects the shift in the incumbency effect. (It’s always easier to win a second term than to win a first, because you’re still a relatively fresh government, and there are numerous advantages to holding the treasury benches)
Honestly, I think it’s too early to tell one way or another. That confidence has gone up with the announcement of a new government is a positive sign, but that’s all it is right now- a sign. There’s three years of follow-through to be achieved still. 🙂
I’m pretty sure that National thought that we wouldn’t choose MMP back in 1993. They certainly worked, through their business partners, hard enough to try to ensure that either FPP or one of their preferred non-proportional systems would win out. Tried again in the 2011 referendum with the same actors and that time they were fully after SM which favour the largest party.
Authoritarians don’t like democracy but they know that they can’t come out and say that and so they work to game the system in their favour instead.
[Citation Needed]
National’s pets are almost always wrong.
Which highlights a deficiency in our electoral system. Obviously, all parties need to be funded the same.
“Economists now accept that borrowing will be much larger under this government than under National.”
Isn’t it true that borrowing under National was MUCH LARGER than under the previous Labour Government? MUCH LARGER?
Just askin’
“Already it is clear that Steven Joyce was right with the funding gap”
Perpetuating that lie Wayne, will not gain you and National the voter shift you desire.
Of course there’s zero chance of National splitting into two parties, because they don’t have astute, intelligent, knowledgeable advisors, with the attributes of the likes of Mathew Whitehead on their side.
Hah, my father tried to get me to take a job doing data analysis with the nats. I didn’t think I could stomach it.
As per above in 11.3.1 and 11.8, please restrict discussion on Steven Joyce’s truthfulness or deception to whether or not Grant Robertson’s budget will be tight, so that we’re not antagonizing Wayne into breaking the rules. Thanks.
Wayne is a far right troll, albeit a very sneaky one. He’s often very clever at masking that with the disguise of friendly devil’s advocate. Whatever anyone does won’t change that.
I have joined in late reading a very interesting thread. I agree with Chris, based on past readings, and want to add that the thread was excellent until Wayne started pontificating. The proof of a really good thread could perhaps be the absence of trolls (until Wayne). Well done Matthew!
One doesn’t become a National Minister without rhetorical skills, for sure. That doesn’t mean, however, that we shouldn’t be careful about being even-handed in our treatment with them. I cautioned Wayne because it looked very much like we were going to re-litigate the established fact that Joyce was mistaken about finding accounting errors, but there was room to believe that he was instead talking about fiscal tightness. He claims to have been talking about fiscal tightness all along, and I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
You need to get yourself attuned to the subtlety employed. When or if you do you’ll understand how disturbing it is.
Oh, I’m aware of it, but I generally find that most of the time simply treating everything they say at face value is actually a very good way to expose them. (Although some of the tricks Wayne is employing here are in fact adapting to my style, so we’ll see if I have to treat him as a full-blown troll in the future)
Hey Matthew, I know nobody loves a pedant, but since I’m a no-mates in real life I may as well be one here too.
In the post (end of first para below “Is it a norm that a Plurality Winner forms the government?”) and in comment 2.1 you say Labour didn’t win the plurality in ’99. But unless I really need my glasses checked, no other party won more than Labour’s 38.74%.
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_1999/e9/html/e9_partI.html
I don’t know, I suspect that Matthew has an appreciation for pedantry usefully applied (assuming you are correct) 🙂
Excuse me, I was furiously flipping through governments and must have misread the ’99 results. I had thought initially that they had won the plurality in ’99, so was surprised to see it differently. I think I must have flipped National and Labour in my head, a mistake dyslexia can do to you if you rush. Thank you for the correction, I will make a note at the bottom of the post.
And as Weka says- I have an appreciation for making sure relevant details are correct- I try to stay off pedantry around details that aren’t relevant, but nobody’s perfect. 😉
Many thanks for the very informative post Matthew.
Perhaps you should send it on to National, so the scratchy old dinosaurs can bring themselves up to date, reminding them the FFP system of voting doesn’t exist here anymore and MMP is what the public voted for … twice in fact.
I was going to tweet it at Nick Smith but it looks like he’s not on Twitter. 😉
As an advocate of further electoral reform, making sure we don’t roll back what we already have is very important to me.
National loved MMP when United, Act and the Maori Party kept them in government for so long. Now they don’t, Funny that !
To be fair, I think they more tolerated it than loved it.
Is everyone aware that us the tax payers footed the bill for that propaganda brochure. It has the parliamentary services stamp on it, so was tax payer funded. Seems like a massive conflict of interest to me.
Those in Tasman electorate are mega pissed off with it, everyone around town is mentioning it, they sure were today, and people from all different backgrounds from business owners to joe bloggs locals.
Advice for nick stick to your electorate and keep your nose out of ours.
Advice for media, do a proper story on it, come to Tasman Electorate and ask people what they think about it.
National won 200,000 more votes, and ten more seats than Labour and the Greens combined. Nick Smith is right, they did win the election, they just ‘lost’ the selection (with Winny now revealing he was never going to go with them anyway, hence the pending court actions against some of the Nat MPs).
Are you going to go out to lose the next election also, hoping that Winston will save you instead (as he did this time). How about some honesty from Labour for a change. Even Arden phoned English on the night, admitting National had won more votes. English: ‘The voters have spoken’ Ardern; ‘MMP will decide’ Speaks volumes!
200,000 more votes is a huge amount, good luck and clawing that back. NZ First won’t be there next time, they will be under the threshold (since Winny betrayed many of his right leaning voters), so Labour will only have the Greens, whilst National will gain support from here on in. The wider electorate knows that National won the election, and you can’t change that! This is a Clayton’s government, there because of WP, not because of actually winning an election. How stupid do you take Kiwis for?? And so far, what a shambles, this govt is like a bunch of dizzy schoolkids at the wheel. Scary stuff.
You’re funny!
Tanz, for you….
So why would Nick Smith say this?
You can understand why Nick Smith and perhaps a lot of older, traditional voters might think in that old-fashioned way – that parties win elections – but Smith, who has been in Parliament since 1990, should know that he’s not using correct language. It suggests National still has some sour grapes about the election outcome, but to come across as sore losers doesn’t really help their cause.
So you’re saying they’re trying to save face?
I think so. There is some genuine feeling within National that the party didn’t deserve to go out of power and they can’t quite comprehend this despite having done so well in the voting.
The way Nick Smith talks about the election result and outcome bears some similarity to language Donald Trump has used in the past about crooked politicians, fake news and blaming others.
http://thewireless.co.nz/articles/wait-so-who-actually-won-the-election
But Tanz, nobody wanted to be in government with you lot.
Your only hope was Winston, and apparently he took the leaking of his private financial details a bit more personally than someone expected.
Winning more votes does not give you a mandate to govern, Tanz. It just makes you the largest party, as I say in the post, and you can repeat the mantra that National won the most votes all you want, but they actually under-performed on the party vote share compared to previous elections- the only sense in which they “won more votes” is that there are now more voters in total.
And yes, it is highly relevant that they lost the selection of coalition partners. Being able to work constructively with other parties is the whole point of MMP, it was specifically picked to make a re-emergence of nazi government in Germany very difficult. The National Party should never have put such a system in the ballot box if they weren’t willing to take their lumps and deal with it if voters opted to adopt MMP, like they did. If National wanted to change how governments were formed under, they had nine long years to do it. 😉 They even had six years after the public refused to ditch MMP, which is plenty of time.
As for clawing votes back- I know you checked the Roy Morgan result, I saw you in the thread over at this post:
https://thestandard.org.nz/latest-roy-morgan-poll-labour-and-greens-surge-as-national-flounders/
Labour and the greens are very likely to have a majority on their own if they can hang on to that level of support, so that’s a pretty good result in terms of clawing things back.
You can spin all you like, but right now the facts suggest that the left are winning, the public likes MMP, and that nobody is buying this dumb attack line that you’re parroting.
Tanz —read my comment that times up for you–.neo liberalism is on the way out.Im sort of guessing you are middled aged and feel sorry for you in a funny sort of way. All your beliefs and thinking (conventional wisdom has been shattered with this election result)
The new generation of voters (the under 30’s are not influenced by MSM unlike the over 30’s.)
Do we really need to bring her age into it?
Now that MMP is in National are trying to go back to FPP even after setting up ACT in Epsom and Dunne in Ohariu.
Blind sided by Winston .
Now still crying in their beersies.
National made their bed now they have to lie in it.
Leaking and lying loosers
“Blind sided by Winston”
I don’t see anything blind about it. If they couldn’t see that coming what the fuck are they doing aspiring to run our country. Or even the corner dairy.
Actions have consequences.
Um, I was still not sure who NZF would go with until the day of the announcement when we got hints that they had been spotted talking with Labour but not with National.
I think if you were confident ahead of time that you knew for sure what NZF would do, that wasn’t justified. I thought Labour was obviously the more compatible choice for them policy-wise, but I didn’t trust Winston and friends to make the obvious choice, they’re all notoriously unpredictable.
I was referring to the senior leadership of National Matthew. If they were going to run a campaign to destroy all possible coalition partners, to try and get 50% of the vote, they were hopeful at best. But to then expect the people and parties they tried to destroy to support a National government after the election is naive in the extreme.
I agree about the good policy fit between Labour, NZ First, and Green Party. All three were quite compatible. NZ First and National would have required quite an accomodation by someone. I wasn’t surprised at all by the outcome, I would have been if NZ First had gone with National. But I’m not in the beltway, so just go on what politicians and parties publish, say, and are reported as saying.
Well, there are some incompatibilities between the GP and NZF, but they’re workable IMO, and the new government has done a good job of sticking to areas that there are broad agreement on.
And yeah, I think your position makes sense- National made a run to try and kill off NZF and the Greens with two-track politics so it was arguably not on their hands. They were gambling on one attempt failing but the other succeeding, (but had no idea which one it would be) I think, and weren’t prepared for both parties to make it back into Parliament. If either had dropped out, National might have had the numbers to govern with ACT.
But both attempts failed, and then they had to play nice and were unprepared for having to work together in coalition, and they were at a disadvantage in terms of policy compatibility because they played risk-big strategies, and now they’re back to attacking MMP instead of working out the flaws in their own long-term political approach. It’s sad.
I’m watching from afar, but with interest. My take is that Winnie the Pooh picked Labour because of his personal antipathy towards national for allegedly leaking his personal information. His statements that he was acting in the best interests of the country etc are now shown to be BS of the first order. On that basis, the legitimacy of this coalition government is legitimately open to question, IMO.
I think the lack of accountability regarding breaches of personal privacy for users of government services, and not taking that issue seriously before the election results, could have had something to do with Winston’s vote on the matter, but you do need to remember that this was a decision made by the entire NZ First caucus, and that there is every indication that Winston is trying to set them up to be able to continue on without him running the show in the future.
My point though regarding those negotiations is that National could probably have made a better play in the negotiations than they did to align their policy with NZ First’s, and they probably should have been thinking about doing that during the election campaign, too, given how close things were, when instead they basically made a push for “give us a result where we can govern with ACT or where the Greens fall below the threshold.” If that issue really played any part, they could also have offered to make a genuine effort to find the person who breached his privacy. The fact that NZ First even entered negotiations with National suggests that setting the issue aside was on the table.
Having attended a meeting in a regional town during the election in which Winston Peters excoriated the local National MP and dismissed National as ‘corporatist’ and ‘neo-liberal’ there was real grounds for hoping that he would move as he did. The fact that he quoted extensively from a local Grey Power critique of losses in local government and NGO supplied social services added even more hope.
Winston acted with compassion and correctly according to his own stated principles in his public speeches. Looking back, there was no surprise, but some gratitude.