In a world where the world’s overall population levels are steadily descending to steady or declining state, the National dipshits have decided to start a new growth industry. They importing unskilled people to extract their savings and using them to generate artificial heat in the economy and to slow wage growth. On the way through they’re also screwing the housing market.
The statistics July figures for migration are pretty disturbing. They show a sustained net growth of PLT (Permanent Long-Term migration) of over 69 thousand for the July year. Now these aren’t the transient tourist or business. These are the people coming here for the long term, or kiwis flooding back.
Net migration is calculated from PLT arrivals less PLT departures. The larger gain in migrants in the July 2016 year compared with the July 2015 year was driven primarily by more arrivals. Migrant arrivals were 125,000 in the July 2016 year, up 7,900 (7 percent) from the July 2015 year, creating a new July-year record. New Zealand citizens returning to live in New Zealand accounted for one-quarter (30,700) of all migrant arrivals.
The increase in migrant arrivals between the June 2015 and June 2016 years was led by increases from China, South Africa, and Australia. There was a small decrease in migrant arrivals from India.
Migrant departures were 56,000 in the July 2016 year, down 1,500 (3 percent) from the July 2015 year. The decrease was driven by a fall in departures to Australia (down 1,300) between the two July years, as fewer New Zealand citizens migrated there.
Now about this point I’d expect various grades of blinded bigots to start screaming that I’m some kind of a racist – because if there is one thing that is consistent, it is the self-interested fools like to use that as a voice stopper. But lets see if they are capable of looking at the historical levels of net PLT migration first? Or even trying to figure out the basic economics that underlie the sustainable inwards migration.
This neat bit of analysis from Stats says
Each year, typically more Kiwis depart overseas than return after a year or more away, and more non-New Zealand citizens arrive here to stay for a year or more, than leave.
The flow of New Zealand citizens can be large, and at times significantly offset the net gain in non-New Zealand citizen migrants. For example, in the May 2012 year 22,400 Kiwis arrived back in New Zealand and 61,800 headed overseas for a year or more, creating a net loss of 39,400 Kiwis. In the same period, there was a net gain of 35,800 non-New Zealand citizens which was outweighed by the loss of Kiwis, creating a total net loss of 3,700 migrants.
But of course that isn’t what is happening now. We have had the dotted line showing the net loss of kiwis (mostly to aussie) get closer to parity. But there has been a massive increase in permanent long-term immigration (the greenish line). And so both factors together have massively increased our net permanent and long-term migration to levels that we have never managed to historically sustain in NZ.
Ok, so in the last 30 years we have averaged an extra 10 thousand odd extra people per year arriving into NZ. This is something like 0.2% per year. Historically it has been even lower, but as a proportion of the resident population it has seldom got higher than 0.3%
But since 2014 we haven’t dropped to less than 40 thousand net inwards migration.
Since 2013, we have been averaging something over 1.5% per year. and it shows little signs of falling. Right now it is looking like it is plateauing into National’s long-term trend.
Just to make it more difficult to adsorb them – most of them have landed and stayed in Auckland. They dropped into an already crowded Auckland housing and job markets.
There was bugger all building in Auckland after National’s 1990s leaky building debacle started really hitting the courts in the mid-2000s. Combined with the effects of building resources moving south after the 2010/11 earthquakes in Christchurch and the predicted downstream effects of the National/Act’s 2010 ill-considered ad hoc plan for Auckland’s governance, it had already caused a overheated property market in Auckland.
Then we had a massive increase in net permanent long-term migration inwards. That in turn caused overseas investment money piling into the unregulated housing market, effectively pulling housing stock
So why is the government deliberately raising net migration? Well you get pyramid scheme growth from it. It isn’t sustainable past the next election because we mostly aren’t getting people who can help grow the economy. We’re being lumped with large numbers of pretty low skilled service industry workers. See this opinion from Bernard Hickey for an overview
Immigration New Zealand awarded 209,461 work visas in the year to June 30 – up 23.5 per cent from two years ago.
The top 20 occupations for those visas show just four were in higher-skilled occupations. If those work visas weren’t awarded, the market would start to generate heat and increase wages at the low end.
That would encourage people to move within the economy, to new regions or into new occupations.
It would also encourage employers to find ways to make existing workers more productive to match those wages, including by improving training and management and investing in new technology. In the long run, an economy gets wealthier by improving productivity.
This is pretty basic Economics 101. You’d think that even a politician would understand the longer term economic costs of having poor quality immigration like baristas and chefs on our productivity growth over the longer term. But apparently these lazy arseholes in the National cabinet simply don’t care.
I guess after the National ministers saw their primitive economic ‘strategy’ based on milk powder flush away, that pile of incompetent dipshits in cabinet thought it’d save their sorry political arses.
Is anyone else thinking about voting for NZ First as a reaction?
We badly need to get below something like an average of 5000 net migration for most of the next decade just to catch up with the resources required for settling the people we have just acquired from National’s binge immigration. The one party whom I am absolutely sure would push that as a priority are NZ First. They are bloody useless in all of their other policy areas, but it is hard to see another area that is as costly as this one is right now.
Perhaps the other opposition parties should take note.