A series of climate records on temperature, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice have alarmed scientists who say their speed and timing is unprecedented. Dangerous heatwaves sweeping Europe could break further records, according to the UN. Here are four climate records broken so far this summer – and what they mean.
The world experienced its hottest day ever recorded in July, breaking the global average temperature record set in 2016.
Average global temperature topped 17C for the first time, reaching 17.08C on 6 July, according to EU climate monitoring service Copernicus. The average global temperature in June this year was 1.47C above the typical June in the pre-industrial period.
The average global ocean temperature has smashed records for May, June and July. It is approaching the highest sea surface temperature ever recorded, which was in 2016. But it is extreme heat in the North Atlantic ocean that is particularly alarming scientists. "We've never ever had a marine heatwave in this part of Atlantic. I had not expected this," says Daniela Schmidt, Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol.
In June, temperatures off the west coast of Ireland were between 4C and 5C above average, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classified as a category 5 heatwave, or "beyond extreme".
The area covered by sea-ice in the Antarctic is at record lows for July. There is an area around 10 times the size of the UK missing, compared with the 1981-2010 average. Dr Caroline Holmes at the British Antarctic Survey… emphasises it is not just a record being broken – it is being smashed by a long way. "This is nothing like anything we've seen before in July. It's 10 percent lower than the previous low, which is huge." She calls it "another sign that we don't really understand the pace of change".
Collective intelligence features the bell curve, in which the majority barely comprehend why things happened to them and what's happening now. Comprehension of future trends is forever beyond them. Most people will therefore continue to vote for more of the same to preserve sheeple normalcy and inertia.
The question of collective survival hinges on our adaptive capacity. Inevitably, democracy is trending away from relevance to survival. Users are realising that election results don't help collective survival prospects. Alternative political movements that network continuously seem the best prospect – they can ride power laws…
Normal distribution about a mean – a distant memory from long ago. However a personal bias re time is also likely. Some folk are progressive by nature and always have a futuristic outlook. The bell curve of average intelligence thereby conflates with a temporal axis of orientation: most folks live in the now, some live in the past, others in the future (how they do that is most interesting).
Hmm. kinda wondered where you were going (you had also connected "sheeple" to your comment).
As…any linking of Intelligence..and Bell Curve sets off my wondering. As its quite often used as an elitist….if not eugenicist..or for that, racist, tool.
The guts is obtainable from an overview of complexity science, network science & neuroscience (neural networks). The gist is that both people and groups can scale up their influence via leverage in network contexts.
Scientific interest in power-law relations stems partly from the ease with which certain general classes of mechanisms generate them. The demonstration of a power-law relation in some data can point to specific kinds of mechanisms that might underlie the natural phenomenon in question, and can indicate a deep connection with other, seemingly unrelated systems; see also universality above. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law
The ubiquity of power-law relations in physics is partly due to dimensional constraints, while in complex systems, power laws are often thought to be signatures of hierarchy or of specific stochastic processes.
A few notable examples of power laws are Pareto's law of income distribution, structural self-similarity of fractals, and scaling laws in biological systems. Research on the origins of power-law relations, and efforts to observe and validate them in the real world, is an active topic of research in many fields of science, including physics, computer science, linguistics, geophysics, neuroscience, systematics, sociology, economics and more.
A multidisciplinary overview is the basis for a generic theory of power laws but researchers haven't got there yet! Connecting such abstractions to human survival will be situationally-driven for most people: how to use the gnosis as part of a group's collective intelligence. Opinion leaders who forge the conceptual link will drive group survival…
Gaia Vince has a four horsemen of the apocalypse update for this century. Using tetradic framing, she identifies the four sources of mass harm during the antropocene era as heat, fire, drought & floods. Her book on consequent mass migration is The Nomad Century.
The President of the World Bank Group is very clear in its foreword of the report : The explored consequences of an increase of the global earth temperature of 4°C are indeed devastating. Among the foreseen consequences are:
the inundation of coastal cities;
increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; dry regions becoming dryer and wet regions wetter;
unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics;
substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;
increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;
irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems.
She rules out the less than two degrees warming scenario which the UN has focused on until now. Govts haven't taken the advised actions, so too late for that.
Everyone wants to maintain their standard of living – or improve it. Individual incentives therefore prevail over collective survival skill development. Folks will suffer.
She sees a billion people pushed out of their habitat zone for every degree of increase. She said El Nino means the child, because it peaks at christmas. So we’re just in the initial phase of that currently.
She seems to be ignoring war – which is the one currently having the greatest impact on food production, cost and instability, internationally.
Ukraine was a massive food exporter – the infrastructural damage caused by the Russian invasion, not to mention the lives lost – has massively reduced this and had a seriously destabilizing effect on food prices. NZ, for example, doesn't import grain directly from Ukraine, but the shortages have increased prices internationally – including the sources we get our grain from.
True. Perhaps a blind spot in her belief system? One interesting view of it is any collective tendency to war is an expression of us/them, whereas the climate crisis impels a shift into collaboration. She's defaulting towards proactive global coordination – which easily becomes averse to acknowledging the animal spirits side of human nature. Once were warriors, maybe once again.
Globalising culture remains partial since many retain national or ethnic identity as ruler of their thoughts. Wars happen when males rule. Sustainability will be driven by females (most males unable to comprehend such sophisticated reasoning).
Historically, food crises (which is basically what she's talking about) always results in war (also famine, mass migration, and societal collapse). Sounds pretty similar to the traditional four: Death, Famine, Pestilence & War.
I agree. We'll get a blend of both the traditional scenario & hers. That tradition from the bible is based on four colours, and illogical since death features as one while being a consequence of all.
She told Kim that adult nappies out-sell infant nappies in Japan. Also that it’s easier for a robot to become a citizen in Japan than an immigrant human.
Really – she's talking about the intensifying reasons why food (and living environment) crises might happen. However, these have happened in the past – and the consequences are stark and well known.
Our 'technology' has been able to smooth them out over the last 150 years, and reduce the impact (I believe that all 20th century famines, for example, were political, rather than environmental); but her argument seems to be that our capacity to do this is diminishing in the face of climate change.
You could equally well (and just as inaccurately) say that famine causes war and disease.
Or disease causes famine and war.
The three can be correlated, but you can't really argue that one causes the others.
And each can also occur independently:
There are wars which have not triggered significant incidences of disease or famine (Falklands War). Equally, there have been famines (e.g. Mao's great leap forward) which had no correlation with war. The most recent disease outbreak (Covid-19) – had no associated war or famine.
Death is an inevitable part of life – it comes to us all….
Historically (as observed in the ME/bible) wars involved imperial siege of cities (not paying tribute) – the consequence of a long siege was famine and disease in the city.
That death came in old age – for those not dead in wars, or of famine or disease was also observable.
Maybe it's the other way around. There might be a war because food production is impacted or will be significantly impacted in the near future. There's a reason Napoleon and Hitler targeted the East ("Kornkammer" – grain storage): It's incredibly fertile land in / around the Ukraine producing huge amounts of grain.
The Arab spring was mainly caused by food shortages.
There's clear indication the food production will decrease with higher expected temperatures. And this is not even taking disasters, like bushfires or flooding, more likely with climate change, into account.
There might be war because of food shortages. Indeed, I would say that massive food shortages frequently trigger wars.
But I don't believe that this has anything to do with the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has no significant food shortages at the moment, and is systematically destroying the capacity for food production in Ukraine (hardly the action of a power desperate to seize the undamaged capacity).
The reasons for Russia wanting Ukraine (as well as Poland, Finland and the Baltic States) – have more to do with defendable frontiers – than food production.
The Pentagon expect more conflict over resources (dams for power vs water for irrigation down stream). But the Ukraine fight is otherwise.
The world needs greater food reserves and better storage. And probably as much help/aid with flood protection as with renewable energy for some nations.
This will push up grain prices and reduce use of such feed for stock farming (thus increase meat prices and encourage other protein). And in our case may place greater focus on a protecting fertile land for market gardens and mixed crop farming (so we are self sufficient).
The Pentagon expect more conflict over resources (dams for power vs water for irrigation down stream).
There's a very interesting incidence of this internally in the US – over the Colorado river.
Because of the weird way the water allocation legislation works – California can take as much water as it wants from the Colorado (including for amenities – like golf courses) – even if there is actual drought in the other states that the Colorado runs through. Other States (especially the water-poor Southwest) can only draw from the river, once California has taken as much as it wants.
The US government looks as though it may intervene – since California has resolutely refused to give up water to which it is 'entitled'
According to one doco I saw on Youtube, the basic problem for Colorado river basin is that the original water allocation agreement was drawn up between the states when the water flow in the river was very high.
So water was granted on the basis of an extreme situation that did not represent normal flow rates, hence the over-allocation. Expansion of California's population didn't help, of course, nor does declining snow fall.
I understand that these days, the river doesn't even reach the sea.
NZ has an equally poor record, with Canterbury lowland rivers like the Hinds sucked dry by irrigators.
NZ is pretty much already self-sufficient for market gardens (unless you mean very local self-sufficiency – which is probably not attainable – you'll never grow cherries in Auckland). Fresh food imports are largely over price (cheaper to grow bananas in the Philippines than NZ), or extending the season (imported strawberries from Oz), or niche things that we just don't have the climate to grow (dates).
There is little alternative to grain as stock feed for chickens (unless you want to replicate the current egg-price increases on a vast scale). And, I understand it's very little used as supplementary feed for beef or lamb in NZ (unlike the US, with their grain fattening lots).
If NZ (as a country) wants to be self-sufficient in food production – then this needs to be strongly led by the government (almost certainly requiring tariffs on imported products) – because, otherwise, it's not cost-effective for farmers – and they won't do it.
I really don't see international grain prices having any major impact on beef farming in the US. Grain is already heavily subsidised by the government – so there is unlikely to be an impact on the meat industry (they have the whip hand, and if production isn't directed toward what makes the US population happy – they'll reduce the subsidies).
For the rest of the world, meat may well become more of a luxury product – as it was in the past. [I set aside the SF proposals for vat-produced meat until we see what the quality, safety and environmental impact, actually is]
We import wheat from Oz, if they put up the price because of the world market it becomes profitable to grow here – rather than pay the world price. Thus a return to mixed crop farming.
Those in the produce supply market say we need to return to more local market gardens to reduce the risk from floods in the areas that have taken over the nationwide market in past decades.
Doing neither means food cost problems because of climate change/GW.
Only if it is more profitable for the NZ farmers (who could be growing wheat) to grow wheat instead of another crop.
In any case, the price to consumers will still go up. NZ wheat sold in NZ is sold at the same 'international' price (we see this all the time with dairy price increases).
If the retailers (supermarkets, etc.) are prepared to pay for the additional cost for growing in multiple locations in order to ensure continuity of supply – then regional market gardening may well be a thing. The issue is that some areas of the country are better environmentally suited to growing some crops, than others are.
For example – corn grown in Gisborne is more economic (cheaper to grow, better quality, longer growing season) than corn grown in Invercargill. Will the retailers be prepared to pay a higher price for poorer quality produce from Invercargill – when there is *not* an issue with the Gisborne supply? [Example, simply for illustration – I have no personal knowledge of the economics of corn growing in either locale]
I think that it's doubtful. Especially since there is no downside to the retailer *not* being able to supply a product (they simply blame floods in Gisborne for the higher prices or lack of availability).
And we still get food cost issues – unless there is a regulatory environment that prevents it (i.e. restricts imports, supports local supply)
With the greatest respect to the authors and researchers, they have left out the greatest thing to overcome: convenience.
We all know the supermarkets sell food that is loaded with embedded diesel miles. Food that is out of season, food from growers that have had their returns and conditions eroded, food and produce that is earning them obscene profits.
And yet… we keep filing through their doors, like the undead, in the typical zombie movie returning to the places that are familiar to them. Or ordering 'on-line', all in the name of convenience.
An anecdote from a chum who was staying with family in Ohakune. Some of the locals use Countdown in Feilding coz the local (only) New World is too dear. That is approx 1hr 20mins away.
Interesting perspective. I shop @ 3 countdowns, paknsave & new world here in NP, depending what I need at the time. NW are higher quality here but not that much more expensive. Perhaps the folk in Ohakune can't do the maths well? Cost of travel, I mean. Total time @ 2 hrs 40 mins converted to labour cost also enters in.
They may, of course, be combining the food shop with other reasons to visit the nearest 'big' town (bank trips, doctors visits, general clothes shopping, family visits, etc.).
If you are already going to Feilding – then it might make sense to do a cheaper food shop there, as well as the main reason for the trip.
You are right about the several jobs, one trip. However this is just shopping. Delivered.
They are reasonably well tuned into the issues humanity faces, one is a natural healer/homeopath.
In my friends example, the order wasn't near complete, which he could roll with but the driver (who sub-contracts to Countdown) gave him a bit of attitude – The order being incomplete "…is not my problem…" so he put the groceries back in the van. 'It is your problem now'.
You could try mentioning to your friends that growing kumera is easy here in NP, so perhaps it's possible there too. I always thought it needed a sub-tropical climate but it ain't so. I've been digging up some down my backyard the past week or two, got enough big ones to give several away to neighbours.
And that was just off one sprout that went in last spring. Got another dozen or so to dig up yet. At $10/kg that's more than $100 potential value. The tops die slow in winter – leaves that remain go pale yellow with stunted growth – but some don't die so you get partial then full regrowth the following year. I've been learning the resilience technique by experiment.
They'd have a lower average temperature due to mountain proximity despite similar latitude, and they are frost-averse. For a permaculturist, that means you have to design a microclimate for growth to be optimised (maximising daily sun, wind & frost protection systems). Glass-covered enclosures with a wee bit of side ventilation is what I'd go for.
Robert and Robin Guyton's example of the (I think) electric van doing a Riverton district loop picking up and dropping off fresh produce would be more the go.
The solutions are local, no political party has the courage or imagination to enable the solutions we need. Not one that seeks re-election anyhow.
They could do that with local produce now (in season) at a market. Maybe add milk if a local farmer was involved. And delivery for those unable to pick up. But there would still be a need to get the indoor grown crops out of season from elsewhere and the longer life shelf goods into Ohakune to drive down the local supermarket prices with competition.
And as for undead zombies , I'm running a large farm and raising a collage kid I'm bust and often tired, so I ain't going to be made to feel bad for getting convenience food from the nearest supermarket,
There is know way that a round trip to feilding or whanganui is cheaper than buying local.
Or maybe the author is sticking to climate knowables: the heat danger zones/vanishing shorelines that are predicted to become uninhabitable. Political outcomes, hence conflicts are less 'predictable', especially given the shifting global political framework.
Do what dates is she using for the Anthropocene era? Because it's not actually a thing yet I think because there is still discussion around dates.
She left out cold which kills and has killed more people each year than heat, fire, flood and drought combined.
Tetradic framing is used in general relativity to describe a model of spacetime so I'm not sure how she might have used it in her study. (or does she mean she just used different colors to represent heat, fire, drought and flood then displayed them on a round graph?)
She may predict 4 degrees but that is the worst case scenario and is based upon things remaining as they are now with nothing at all done to mitigate anthropogenic global warming.
Nobody dates the anthropocene that I've noticed – it's just a loose framing of the era we entered due to global warming. Interesting point re cold – haven't seen stats yet.
Tetradic framing derives from ancient Greek usage (tetrad = 4 items in a set). I presume your reference to relativity refers to the dimensions being four. Her usage pertains to the four sources of mass harm she expects to result from global warming. Nothing unusual there since they've been in global headlines quite often.
Re mitigation, we still don't have enough of that happening globally to discount her four degrees as too alarmist. The inertial effect of global warming is the real threat – it's already in the time pipeline – and will happen regardless. Methane clathrates, for instance:
The clathrate gun hypothesis is a proposed explanation for the periods of rapid warming during the Quaternary. The idea is that changes in fluxes in upper intermediate waters in the ocean caused temperature fluctuations that alternately accumulated and occasionally released methane clathrate on upper continental slopes. This would have had an immediate impact on the global temperature, as methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.
Despite its atmospheric lifetime of around 12 years, methane's global warming potential is 72 times greater than that of carbon dioxide over 20 years, and 25 times over 100 years (33 when accounting for aerosol interactions). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate
Humans are already reducing in numbers – most countries are not replacing their population (fewer than 2 children per woman) – and some are in demographic freefall.
Look at the demographics of China, for example – despite the one-child policy being rescinded – the number of children born each year continues to decline. And the population is estimated to actually start declining this year (that’s with the pretty optimistic UN figures – many other researchers note the poor quality of the official data – and think the peak was reached some time ago). [Note, China is no longer the most populous country in the world, India is]
This is probably not a good thing – either in economic or infrastructure terms. Most countries are going to end up with a relatively small working population supporting a much higher retired population. And, few are doing any serious planning about it.
New Zealand is one of the very few countries which is not following this trend – our population demographic is pretty stable in the 0-20 age group – and our largest population tranche is at 30, not 60 (despite the often-reiterated concern over the boomers retiring). Most of our population increase comes from immigration.
This seems to be about the fact that retirement communities (towns which disproportionately attract older people) – exist – and the demographic consequences.
But no evidence that this issue is driving down populations.
From the article you link to:
The reasons for this decline in birth rates include positive developments, such as women's greater financial independence and control over their reproductive health. On the other hand, in countries with low fertility rates, many couples would like to have more children than they do, research shows, but they may hold off due to social and economic reasons, such as a lack of support for families.
It goes on to claim
At the same time, there may also be a decline in a different kind of fertility
There is a difference in population level data (where the causes of restriction on family size are well known) – and individual data (where personal infertility may well have an impact).
The article is full of highly speculative possibilities – and rather than hard facts. You might equally well argue that cancer treatment reduces fertility (it does)
The population continues to increase, because people are living longer.
The point was that the switch has already happened (fewer children being born than are needed to sustain the current levels of population). And it's not just in the 'west' – but in every urbanizing country as well (the correlation between increased urbanization/industrialization and population size is well known). Many countries have already tipped over into actual population decline (including China).
Unless you're proposing mandatory euthanasia of everyone over 65 (the non-productive class); large-scale war (the effect of the war in Ukraine has already had stark implications for Russian demographics; one-child policies on populous countries (try it on India and see how far you get), or mass starvation (we may get there, but it's hardly something to be wished for) – what alternatives are you proposing to make this population trend change more quickly?
whereas in another reply at 10:39 (four minutes later) you state
"I work in an industry where, so long as your brain continues to function, you're a highly valued employee. I've had people over 80 on my team (working part-time – work/life balance)."
Another contradiction.
I'm making no proposals regarding population trends. The time lag between changes in birth rate & actual population is so long that it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change.
What personal action are you taking to resolve the "urgent changes [in population] we need to make to minimise climate change"?
What political action do you advocate to resolve this issue?
If the answer to both is "none" – then your entire post is pointless.
The apparent-to-you contraction was in discussion to the floated possibility that you might consider that post 65 euthanasia was a solution. Another commented suggested that retirement at 65 was not sensible in all cases – and I agreed.
Or are you advocating that the euthanasia criteria should be based on assessed productivity to society?
Whoa. You do NOT add words to a direct quote from someone else, even if placed in brackets That is completely unethical.
The point of my post was to correct errors in your post(s). I observe you don't seem to handle being corrected at all well.
At no stage did I mention euthanasia, that came entirely from your mind.
It is quite clear when I said "I'm making no proposals regarding population trends . . . it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change." that it's not something to be considered.
I'm not sure why I'm bothering to answer, but at over 65, I'm a bit past taking personal action to resolve the population problem you perceive (although the vasectomy really achieved that thirty odd years ago). And as far as climate change measures, walking, cycling, public transport, zero overseas travel, all purchasing decisions carefully considered etc.
Hopefully you get the gist, & will cease suggesting motives and making judgement about people you know nothing about.
"The time lag between changes in birth rate & actual population is so long that it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change."
Your quote in full.
My apologies, since we were discussing population sizes and trends, I made the assumption that you were referring to action needed in relation to population size.
I now see that you appear to be saying there is nothing we can do about population – and need to take alternative action.
Maybe we should reinvent retirement, people getting to 65 and then becoming a dtag on society is dumb, people physical and mental health is better if the ar busy and contributing.
You'll find a lot of argument against increasing the retirement age, here, on TS. 🙂
I work in an industry where, so long as your brain continues to function, you're a highly valued employee. I've had people over 80 on my team (working part-time – work/life balance).
I worked full time until I was 66. Then my employer did some stupid stuff which annoyed me so I "retired". I had things to do which I did, and then I worked part time for 2 years after that because a friend rang in a panic because he had taken on a job he could not complete in time and was prepared to pay me quite a lot of $$$ to get it done. This led to the next job etc. Finally, I sent the last one back to him and said that I could not support it and neither would the authority it was to go to. I had a bit of surgery after that and have used it as an excuse to not work again.
So much of our social capital and productivity comes from people who are on a pension.
Looking after Grandkids so that parents can work, is just one example.
The problem with decreasing numbers of workers is way overhyped. The real issue is so much of the income from their productivity is captured by parasitic capital, and removed from the community. We don't need the number of people working the hours they currently do. Bullshit jobs
Technology is rapidly increasing individual worker productivity. For example two workers milking 800 cows in a few hours. The issue is those two workers pay does not reflect that. It is lower than 40 years ago.
Workers who are on realistic wages reflecting their actual contribution, and the wealthy having to contribute back some of the rents they are extracting, can easily support dependants, as they did in the 60's.
I also note that the enthusiasm for increasing the retirement age, comes solely from those with comfortable desk jobs who are lucky enough to be in good health.
The West, Japan, Korea and China do not represent the totality of the worlds demographics.
And the Five Eyes nations are growing their populations via migration all the same.
The forecast increase from 8 to 11B forecast during the century shows total birthrate is being maintained globally. However the impact of long COVID and global warming impact on lifespans is not a known (spread of disease impacting on food production and post flood disease and impact of heat on workers and old people).
Population growth via migration is 'neutral' in terms of the world's population: for there to be an increase of one person in Country A by migration, there has to be a decrease in Country B.
Please provide evidence that the birthrate is being maintained globally.
I, too, agree that the UN population forecasts are overly optimistic (or pessimistic – depending on whether you see population as a good or bad thing) – and don't take wars, famines, disasters, etc. into account.
I realise there are arguements within Chinese tradition to refute this, but being Han Chinese does not define being human. I am sure you do realise that the Indian population growth is larger than any Chinese decline for the foreseeable future.
I will refer to a debate with the other red who has retired (not dington but logix).
Perhaps you could look at the figures between (say) 2019 and 2023. Or possibly the birth rate data for the top 10 most populous countries.
No one is arguing that the world population hasn't increased since 1950.
Straw man…..
I've provided a link showing that China (still around 1/4 of the world's population) has *decreased* in absolute terms in 2023.
India has indeed overtaken China in as the most populous country in the world. However, their birth rate is at 1.6 and continuing to decline.
I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".
Any increasing population figures are as a result of people living longer – not of increasing numbers of children being born.
I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".
Might that be a matter of perception versus reality?
Ah, so about one generation until the global human population begins to stabilise. Don't panic – our species won't go extinct any time soon.
Spaceship Earth is currently sustaining an overshoot civilisation – with any luck humans will prove smarter than bacteria in a petri dish, and seize opportunities to decrease their numbers naturally and gradually.
Consider just two adaptive behaviors that Homo sapiens shares with all other species. Humans have an innate propensity to consume available resources – often to depletion – and a parallel drive to invade and colonize all accessible habitats. https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/population-rees
The figures explained that the Asian birth numbers continued to increase despite what happened within China (one child policy and all that).
The figures also explained the increasing extent between 1950-2021 to which global birth increase was predicated on Africa.
You know why slowing rates elsewhere (in either the west, or China) did not result in a global fall.
I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".
That just demonstrates a failure to pay attention to what (the where) was driving the global increase in births.
And your explanation of the absolute decrease in the population in China in 2023 (and, according to many commentators, actually quite a bit earlier) – is?
The Chinese and Asian birth numbers have been steadily dropping since 1970. If you have a birth rate of less than 2, then the birth numbers mathematically cannot be increasing. The population increased due to people living longer. Fewer people were being born (especially in China), but the people already here were not dying off as quickly.
Have a look at this chart – showing the fertility rate in China during the 20th century. It dropped below 2 in the mid-90s (and those the the official figures – so likely to be on the high side)
When you say "maintained globally" it doesn't really represent what's happening as the countries with fertilty rates high enough to grow there population are pretty much all in Africa and the Middle East. Even India and Indonesia are rapidly closing in on 2.1 rate.
Immigration only works while there are immigrants available. If we boost our population through immigration from any country with a less than 2.1 rate then it doesn't help and if all the countries with declining birth rates import all of the new people from africa and the Middle East then how are they supposed to survive.
Some estimates have for example China losing half of it's population within the next 5 decades. That is really scary because it means compete economic collapse for China and assuming they are aware of what's happening to their country you have to wonder how they will respond? There will be 2 choices, China ceases to exist, or………?
Russia is much the same – demographic collapse (dropping total population, as well as a birth rate well under 2) exacerbated by losses during the Ukraine war (not only deaths – but especially flight of young men, from the country).
I understand that Russia's extractive industry (gas, etc) is entirely dependent on foreign expertise now. Many of whom have left the country – and are unlikely to return (the risks outweigh the returns)
When you say maintained globally; it doesnt really represent whats happening as the countries with fertilty rates high enough to grow there population are pretty much all in Africa and the Middle East. Even India and Indonesia are rapidly closing in on 2.1 rate.
Yes it does, as those areas are part of the world.
Immigration only works while there are immigrants available
There will be billions of people looking to migrate to western nations for decades to come. Economic reasons to new ones, such as CC/GW.
The nature of the migrants will change, AI and robot tech etc.
Some estimates have for example China losing half of it's population within the next 5 decades. That is really scary because it means compete economic collapse for China and assuming they are aware of what's happening to their country you have to wonder how they will respond? There will be 2 choices, China ceases to exist, or………?
China will no more suffer economic collapse than Japan. Japan will profit from helping them out.
"China will no more suffer economic collapse than Japan. Japan will profit from helping them out."
That statement indicates you have no concept of the divide between these two countries. Japan would sit on the sidelines with popcorn and watch while China burns.
If Japan does not, China is capable of doing it themselves, by merely following their example.
That "divide" has not stopped past Japanese investment in China, and to forecast the future based on a current "circumstance/issues" is not prescience.
Oh, do tell how China (a country which has got old, faster than it has got rich), is going to copy Japan (a country which got rich, long before it got old).
Sound-bite sniper, China will have AI (labour saving) and quantum computing to help out.
And it helps them resolve the problem of maintaining employment – given the job losses in manufacture for US firms (now moving to produce more outside China).
Labour shortages result in higher wages (where they occur) and this then leads to development of the domestic services sector.
PS China has a lot of reserves – American debt etc.
it doesn't help and if all the countries with declining birth rates import all of the new people from africa and the Middle East then how are they supposed to survive.
They will still be among the nations with a rising population, the other nations do not need to maintain their current population level to survive.
Some under NZF umbrella include anti-vax doctors and anti co-governance/3 Waters activists. Lots of competition in that corner, though. NZF looking to hover up disgruntled Nats who can’t stomach ACT? The polite face of racism?
Never forget he learnt his political credentials at the knee of one, Robert David Muldoon.
It was Muldoon who introduced Dirty Politics to NZ in the 1970s. He lied, cheated and manipulated people and situations to suit his personal ambitions. He crucified people because they had the temerity to stand up to him. He was also not above turning to the shadowy underworld to do his dirty work for him.
Peters has copied Muldoon's style with considerable success over the years. Like Muldoon, he will do whatever it takes to grab power. In Peters' case he has thrown his lot in with the conspiracy theorists and the anti-brigade together with the generally bewildered who are easy to manipulate.
I once gave him credit for helping to expose the Wine Box papers, but as far as I can tell that was about the only positive thing he's ever done… unless some want to include the Gold Card which was primarily a ploy to garner the elderly vote than having any altruistic considerations.
Peters has incredible ability and intelligence to capture pressing issues. Some of his speeches I have read are superb – sharp analyses set out in beautiful oratory – statesman territory.
But, because he is a shameless egoist with no moral compass, Peters swings to whatever populist direction wins him power on the day. If he had stuck to one position, he could have achieved much more for himself and the country in his years in Parliament.
If he had stuck to one position, he could have achieved much more for himself and the country in his years in Parliament.
Indeed. Had he used his undoubted talents in a truly positive way he could have been a long-term PM in his own right with majority support from both Maori and Pakeha.
South of Gisborne, a local doctor serving his mostly Maori community spoke against covid vaccination. As he was trusted, this decreased local vax rates. Can't readily find the link, but it was widely reported at the time.
NZF doctor is 'anti-mandate' not anti-vax, but that is essentially the same thing, defending rights to work and free movement when you aren't prepared to protect your community by having the jab.
Margarita Simonyan isn’t talking about Europe. Ukrainian grain will continue to be shipped there by rail.The famine they're talking about is in Africa.
Russia wants to force the West cave to Russian cruelty by starving Africans.
“All our hope is in a famine” “The famine will start now, and they will lift the sanctions, and be friends with us, because they will realize it is necessary" The Russians have been telling us for months what they plan to do but the West isn’t listening
Ukrainian grain has historically never been exported to Europe – so there has always been zero risk of famine there from the interrupted supplies.
Which is a good thing for its European neighbours (e.g. Poland) which are also grain exporting countries. Grain exported last year caused political issues – because it was 'dumped' into the local economies of other grain-exporting countries.
There are major challenges with transiting grain through Europe – the rail network isn't consistent between Ukraine and most of the EU (the gauge is different) – so you'd have to break bulk; and, in any case, it's logistically impossible to shift anything like as much by train as you can by sea. They're now exploring alternative hybrid scenarios (e.g. rail to a Romanian port, then sea freight)
I think Russia is more concerned over restricting foreign exchanged earned by Ukraine (and therefore able to be spent on resisting Russian aggression), than over trying to instil a moral panic in the west about famine in Africa.
Although, I agree that Africa is certain to be the loser in this. Even if Ukrainian grain is bought by other countries (e.g. China) – if it's not available, those countries will switch to alternative sources, pushing up prices. China won't go short. Africa will.
Doing the ground work for a wind break garden enclosure has involved digging 1.6m holes to accommodate 4.8m posts. I'd neglected to adequately cover one hole and late Friday evening my SO brought news of a deceased hedge pig lying in the bottom.
This morning I went to retrieve the carcass, gave it a nudge with the shovel and lo, it was alive!. After most of the day in a shoe box in front of the burner hedge pig is active, drinking, on it's second helping of dog roll dog and hopefully should be good to be released later this evening.
And yes, I have covered the hole and checked the others.
Hopefully a fucking decent lemon tree or two, salt is the issue, in a 6×4.5x3M pest proof windbreak enclosure surrounding raised beds.
Two rows 124-150mm x 4.8M @3M with rammed Superpost® intermediaries @1.5M, footed and headed with tg & v retaining, wrapped and topped with deer fencing and then windbreak.
Gd on ya for saving the chog joe im curious tho as to why you need a big windbreak if you.ve got a mature pohut plus karo one i'd have thought would be pretty substantial by now ?
Hedge pig appeared to be fit and well after a third feed so I deposited it under the hedge and off it waddled.
Mature as in substantial and 2M high for ease of maintenance but not much chop in the face of a rolling, gusty Westerly. Plus we're fifty metres from the sea in one of the country's windiest suburbs with nothing between us and the Antarctic so salt spray is an issue. Hence citrus failure after citrus failure.
A few years ago I did buy a cheap second hand tunnel house but it was as flimsy AF so the weather slowly trashed it and all I was left with was a mountain of plastic that cost money to dispose. So I've decided to bite the bullet and build something that's far more substantial.
One hedgehog can cause an entire colony of endangered black-fronted terns to abandon their nests.
Analysis of hedgehog gut contents and a growing catalogue of camera footage tell a compelling story. Hedgehogs hoover up countless endemic birds’ eggs and chicks, lizards, and invertebrates.
In braided river systems they feast on the eggs and chicks of banded dotterels, black-fronted terns and pied oyster catchers. Our critically endangered kakī (black stilt) struggles to survive in the wild due to hedgehogs and other predators plaguing their habitat.
I have no data on this but would hesitate a guess that way more people like hedgehogs than like insects and snails, etc.
I notice on that link they say that rats must be completely eradicated from NZ. Have there been any studies done to determine any unforeseen problems on knock on effects of removing them from the ecosystem and life cycle? For example in cities, rats usually try and stay hidden from people and their impacts aren't only negative, they are also responsible for taking care of vast amounts of human rubbish and waste.
I'm not sure removing an entire species from the life cycle (that species being a highly participative part of that life cycle) won't also have negative consequences. I'm guessing the environmental powers that be would have done their homework on this stuff….
In Palmy last night, Batchelor's anti co-governance meeting managed to keep his venue (he books venues under false ids). This one was inside the council-owned lido grounds, in a separate clubroom. Police were there, for crowd control, and to carry out trespass orders, removing protester who are inside the venue.
But in this case, Batchelor illegally locked the gates, leaving the police outside them. Then people at his meeting attacked and dragged out a protester when they began whistling and showing a 'hate speech is not free speech' sign.
If you have security bouncers at such an event, they need to be licenced. Williams, the moaning racist from Chch was at a Batchelor meeting recently, and punched a couple of protesters, just for fun.
It was in Takaka that he punched the protestors, well one he punched, the other, a woman had her arm crushed in a door, and collected one of his swings .The cops were not impressed by his attitude .
Debunking Conspiracies Aotearoa facebook post the one with photo of 'stop making us whiteys look bad' protest sign, gives an in-person written account of the protest. Comments around posts in the last day or so on this topic there also expand the info, based on attendees' accounts. This includes illegally locking police out of the venue.
The info about Williams comes from the same site about a week to 2 weeks ago, whenever the meeting was that he attended. It includes his own video, and he's clearly busting for a fight. He apparently was charged as a result.
Batchelor has tried to say Lee Williams is nothing to do with him , that he just attends his meetings. He lied .Williams is definitely part of the whole roadshow.He is trouble, moving amongst the protestors, filming them and trying to provoke them to say or do something stupid.He also has a short fuse, and acts as an enforcer, identifying those he decrees "hostile" and refusing them entry
In his YT videos its clear he and Batchelor are strongly connected.
We'll be getting a new Minister of Hunting and Fishing if National gets elected.
The party also wants to change the law so that game animals like deer, Himalayan tahr and pigs are no longer classified as pests to protect our right to hunt and fish.
But one hunter says that's at odds with New Zealand's efforts to protect native forests.
Hunters from the depths of Te Urewera to the spurs of Fiordland – the National Party has your vote in its sights.
"What we've been working very hard with is the fishing and hunting interest groups to make sure we get the balance right for them," National leader Christopher Luxon said.
National will:
Establish a Minister for Hunting and Fishing
Strengthen the Game Animal Council and designate 'herds of special interest'
Change the law so game animals are not pests
Guarantee access to public land for hunting and fishing
Establish the 'Huts of Recreational Importance' Partnership to maintain huts in the DoC estate
Support Fish & Game New Zealand and protect trout and salmon fishing
Not introduce recreational licences for game animal hunting or sea fishing.
This will result in two primary shifts: * Treating game species as a resource to be managed and monetised * Consequently greater restriction and regulation of recreational hunting that will raise barriers to entry and reduce hunting rates, with consequently higher herd sizes
@simonbwilson
·22h
I know for a lot of people it probably isn't a biggie, but the Nats have announced they will "Change the law so game animals are not pests." What does that even mean?
Byebye Doc, hello uncontrolled deer, wallabies and stoats on reserve land. Hello crazy hunters in cammo making the bush dangerous for others. Suck up to gun lobby through the backdoor. All good keen man stuff.
Looks like a 'cobble together a vote-for-us policy' to eat into ACT and to pick up interest groups without thinking it through.
Agree about deer (especially with the policy about herd protection).
Seems unlikely that wallaby and stoat hunting are economic – and will remain classed as pests (along with possums)
Most hunters are rural New Zealanders hunting to eat….
And, while they've been staunchly against things like 1080 drops – so have some of the greenest of the greens – so a ban might garner support from some unlikely areas.
And why did the Crown not challenge the Tribunal’s jurisdiction? Gary Judd writes – Retired District Court Judge, David Harvey, has posted on his A Halflings View Substack an excellent summary of Justice Isacs’ judgment declining to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result?As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and ...
Macklemore isn’t someone I’d usually think about. Sure I liked his big hit from a few years back, everybody did it was catchy and cool with some memorable lines. But if I was going to think of artists who might speak out on political matters or world events, he wouldn’t ...
Another week goes by in the Luxon government’s efforts to roll back the past 70 years of social progress. The school lunches programme is to be downgraded by $107 million, and women need bother their heads no longer about pay equity, let alone expect ACC to provide adequate sexual violence ...
Brrr, the first cold snap of the year. Hope you’re rugged up nice and warm. Here are some stories that caught our eye this week… This Week on Greater Auckland On Monday, we had a post from a new contributor, Connor Sharp, who dug into the public feedback ...
Almost all of the Wellington City Council’s recommended zoning changes to allow many more apartments and townhouses in its inner-suburbs have been approved.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guest on geopolitics, ...
Open access notablesA Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future:Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, ...
Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result? As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and always answered “yes”, with very few ...
Thus far May has followed on from a quiet April in the blogging department, but in fairness, it has been another case of doing what I am supposed to be doing, namely writing original fiction. Plus reading. So don’t worry – I have been productive. But in order to reassure ...
Buzz from the Beehive A new government agency will open for business on July 1 – the Social Investment Agency. As a new standalone central agency effective from 1 July, it will lead the development of social investment across Government, helping ministers understand who they need to invest in, what ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The ...
Alwyn Poole writes – After being elected to Parliament in 2008 the maiden speech of Hipkins was substantially around education policy. He was Labour’s spokesperson for education 2011 – 2017. He was Minister for Education from 2017 until February 2023. This is approximately 88% of the time Labour ...
Eric Crampton writes – A fashion industry group is lobbying for protections. They make the usual arguments and a newer one. None of it makes sense. An industry group says it pumped $7.8 billion into the economy last year – that’s 1.9 percent of New Zealand’s GDP. ...
In December 2006, Fiji's military leader Voreqe Bainimarama overthrew the elected government in a coup. He ruled Fiji for the next 16 years, first as dictator, then as "elected" Prime Minister. But now, he's finally been sent to jail where he belongs. Sadly, this isn't for his real crime of ...
Don't like National's corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" law? Aotearoa's environmental NGO's - Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, WWF, Coromandel Watchdog, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Kiwis Against Seabed Mining, and others - have announced a joint march against it in Auckland in June: When: 13:00, 8 June, 2024 Where: Aotea Square, Auckland You ...
Seymour describes sushi as too woke for school meals. There are no fish sushi meals recommended by the School Lunches programme. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Government will swap out hot meals for packaged sandwiches to save $107 million on school lunches for poor kids. MSD has pulled ...
I don't mind stealin' bread from the mouths of decadenceBut I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled, yeahBut it's on the table, the fire's cookin'And they're farmin' babies, while slaves are workin'The blood is on the table and the mouths are chokin'But I'm goin' hungry, yeahSome ...
The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
“Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim.Extreme Left Auckland University of TechnologyEvidenceThe ...
Eric Crampton writes – I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes – Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
Chris Trotter writes – Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…Gary Judd KC writes – I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Buzz from the Beehive Local Water Done Well – let’s be blunt – is a silly name, but the first big initiative to put it into practice has gone done well. This success is reflected in the headline on an RNZ report:District mayors welcome Auckland’s new water deal with ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate ConnectionsA farmworker cleans the solar panels of a solar water pump in the village of Jagadhri, Haryana Country, India. (Photo credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan/ IWMI) Decisions made in India over the next few years will play a key role in global ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The Children’s Minister, Karen Chhour, intends to repeal Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 because it creates conflict between claimed Crown Treaty obligations and the child’s best interests. In her words, “Oranga Tamariki’s governing principles and its act should be colour ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. ...
Brian Easton writes – This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them ...
TL;DR:Winston Peters is reported to have won a budget increase for MFAT. David Seymour wanted his Ministry of Regulation to be three times bigger than the Productivity Commission. Simeon Brown is appointing a Crown Monitor to Watercare to protect the Claytons Crown Guarantee he had to give ratings agencies ...
The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. Carr had made highly ...
I could be a florist'Round the corner from Rye LaneI'll be giving daisies to craziesBut, baby, I'll wrap you up real safe Oh, I can give you flowers At the end of every dayFor the center of your table, a rainbowIn case you have people 'round to stay Depending on ...
TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to May 12 include:PM Christopher Luxon is scheduled to hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4 pm today. Finance Minister Nicola Willis will give a pre-budget speech on Thursday.Parliament sits from Question Time at 2pm on ...
The price of the foreign affairs “reset” is now becoming apparent, with Defence set to get a funding boost in the Budget. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed that it will be one of the few votes, apart from Health and Education and possibly Police, which will get an increase ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 28, 2024 thru Sat, May 4, 2024. Story of the week "It’s straight out of Big Tobacco’s playbook. In fact, research by John Cook and his colleagues ...
Yesterday I received come lovely feedback following my Star Wars themed newsletter. A few people mentioned they’d enjoyed reading the personal part at the beginning.I often begin newsletters with some memories, or general thoughts, before commencing the main topic. This hopefully sets the mood and provides some context in which ...
April 30 was going to be the day we’d be calling Mum from London to wish her a happy birthday. Then it became the day we would be going to St. Paul's at Evensong to remember her. The aim of the cathedral builders was to find a way to make their ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Can’t remember the last book by a Kiwi author you read? Think the NZ government should spend less on the arts in favor of helping the homeless? If so, as far as Newsroom is concerned, you probably deserve to be called a cultural ignoramus ...
Eric Crampton writes – Grudges are bad. Better to move on. But it can be fun to keep a couple of really trivial ones, so you’re not tempted to have other ones. For example, because of the rootkit fiasco of 2005, no Sony products in our household. ...
A new report warns an estimated third of the adult population have unmet need for health care.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāHere’s the six key things I learned about Aotaroa’s political economy this week around housing, climate and poverty:Politics - Three opinion polls confirmed support for PM Christopher Luxon ...
Today is May the fourth. Which was just a regular day when my mother took me to see the newly released Star Wars at the Odeon in Rotorua. The queue was right around the corner. Some years later this day became known as Star Wars Day, the date being a ...
Buzz from the Beehive Much more media attention is being paid to something Winston Peters said about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr than to a speech he delivered to the New Zealand China Council. One word is missing from the speech: AUKUS. But AUKUS loomed large in his considerations ...
Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) is supportive of the cross-party approach to climate adaptation announced by the Minister of Climate Change today. ...
The Sustainable Business Council (SBC) and Climate Leaders Coalition (CLC) welcome today’s announcement from Government around a bipartisan inquiry into an enduring climate adaptation framework for New Zealand. ...
The Free Speech Union welcomes the decision by the Department of Internal Affairs, and Minister Brooke Van Velden, to abandon proposals to further regulate online speech. ...
BusinessNZ is congratulating the Minister of Climate Change for his work in achieving cross-party consensus for a way forward on climate adaptation. ...
Recent research reveals the repeal of smokefree measures is not only bad for our health, but also the economy. The Government has repealed various smokefree measures to ensure it keeps collecting $1.2 billion a year in tobacco taxes, in order to pay for tax cuts already being delivered to ...
The club’s surprisingly good season is built on the desire to prove a random A-League YouTuber wrong… and a few other factors.“There’s no way that Wellington Phoenix play finals this year. I can’t see it happening at all.” Those are the words of Lachlan Raeside, an Australian football content ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By César Albarrán-Torres, Senior Lecturer, Department of Media and Communication, Swinburne University of Technology Apple TV+ As one of billions of bilingual individuals in the world, it disappoints me when a film or TV show with characters of a non-English-speaking background is ...
The under-utilised course is a waste of space, and with a little political will, it could be turned into something better. For the duration of her stay in Wellington, my long-suffering cousin listened to me rant about golf courses. They’re bad for the environment: water intensive and pesticide heavy. They ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leah Ruppanner, Professor of Sociology and Founding Director of The Future of Work Lab, Podcast at MissPerceived, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock A recent report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows US fertility rates dropped 2% in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Corderoy, Medical doctor and PhD candidate studying involuntary psychiatric treatment, School of Psychiatry, UNSW Sydney shop_py/Shutterstock Picture two people, both suffering from a serious mental illness requiring hospital admission. One was born in Australia, the other in Asia. Hopefully, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Treby, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, RMIT University P.j.Hickox, Shutterstock Peatlands store more carbon per square metre than any other ecosystem on Earth. These waterlogged, mossy bogs beat even dense rainforests for their ability to act as carbon reservoirs. Under the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Goss, Adjunct Associate Professor, Health Research Institute, University of Canberra Government spending on health has been growing so rapidly that a decade ago the then health minister Peter Dutton called it “unmanageable” and “unsustainable”. Health spending grew in real terms by ...
New Zealand's largest electricity distributor is warning the country to hurry up with controls around charging electric vehicles or face unnecessary bills running into the billions. ...
New Zealanders have been asked to conserve energy this morning to combat a possible electricity shortfall, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. A call to conserve power New Zealand is facing a possible electricity shortfall, with people up ...
Writer Rebecca K Reilly breaks down the national book awards. What are the Ockhams?The Ockham New Zealand Book Awards are our annual national awards for books published for adults, and have existed in this form since 2016. There are four categories: Fiction, Poetry, General Non-fiction and Illustrated Non-fiction. There ...
Wellington City Council should keep its 34% ownership share in Wellington International Airport, argue Unions Wellington spokespeople Finn Cordwell and Ashok Jacob. Insanity, as the saying goes, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Wellington City Council (WCC) is yet again proposing to dispose ...
New Zealand’s largest book publisher has undergone drastic changes this week, leaving its future role in local publishing uncertain. Two of the most recognisable local publishers in New Zealand are among those restructured out of Penguin Random House, it was announced this week. Head of publishing Claire Murdoch will leave ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 10 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Successive governments have tried, and failed, to count Māori. But with the return of social investment, it’s more important than ever to get good data. The post Government looks for a better way to count Māori appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Experts in financing social investment initiatives say New Zealand is in a prime position to tackle social issues via a social investment approach The post What will Willis’ social investment fund look like? appeared first on Newsroom. ...
In 2021 the Public Interest Journalism Fund launched the Te Rito Journalism project, a $2.4 million initiative to boost diversity in New Zealand’s newsrooms. The initiative was in response to the decades-long shortage of Māori and Pacific journalists in the media industry. It was billed as New Zealand’s ...
The Black Ferns Sevens appeared to be a mile behind Australia at the halfway point of the 2023-24 SVNS international circuit. Winless in three tournaments, a cup quarter-final exit in Perth was one of their worst results. To add insult to injury, talismanic skipper Sarah Hirini had been ruled out ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist A former Tuvalu prime minister says while the New Zealand government’s oil and gas plans show it is concerned about its economy, he is more concerned about the livelihoods and survival of the Tuvalu people. Enele Sopoaga — who still serves as an MP ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Many people who follow federal budgets know about the magnificent “budget tree” in a parliamentary courtyard, which turns a glorious red in time for the May event. This week Treasurer Jim Chalmers posed by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Bennett, Professor of Music, Australian National University Richard P J Lambert/flickr, CC BY The future belongs to the analogue loyalists. Fuck digital. As a tsunami of CDs, DAT tapes and samplers swept the recording industry in the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate professor, Music Industry, RMIT University This week American rapper Macklemore released a new track, Hind’s Hall, which has gained a lot of attention because of its explicitly political nature. The track is unapologetically pro-Palestine. It declares the artist’s ...
Explainer - The government from 2025 is mandating how state schools teach children to read. But what is structured literacy and how does it compare to other teaching methods? ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danica Jenkins, Lecturer in European Studies, University of Sydney On a freezing spring night in March, Georgia’s national soccer team beat Greece in a nail-biter penalty shootout to qualify for the Euro 2024 championships. The atmosphere on the streets of the capital ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam G. Arian, Lecturer (Accounting & Finance), Australian Catholic University Loic Manegarium/Pexels Imagine every ton of carbon dioxide a company emits is slowly inflating its costs — not just in terms of potential fines or fees but in the capital it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Somwrita Sarkar, Senior Lecturer in Design and Computation, University of Sydney The “latte line” is the infamous, invisible boundary that divides Sydney between the more affluent north-east and the south-west. Historically, people north of the line enjoy better access to jobs and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, The University of Melbourne Nomad_Soul/Shutterstock In media articles about unprecedented flooding, you’ll often come across the statement that for every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This ...
RNZ Pacific Former Fiji Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama has been sentenced to one year in prison, Fiji media are reporting. Bainimarama, alongside suspended Fiji Police Commissioner Sitiveni Qiliho appeared in the High Court in Suva today for their sentencing hearing for a case involving their roles in blocking a police ...
Acting Chief Human Rights Commissioner Saunoamaali’i Dr Karanina Sumeo says, “Addressing violence and abuse remains New Zealand’s most significant human rights issue affecting women. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Symons, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie University Michael Schiffer / Unsplash Life has transformed our world over billions of years, turning a dead rock into the lush, fertile planet we know today. But human activity is currently transforming Earth ...
One woman’s quest to watch Challengers without ruining her body clock. Every Saturday morning, I wake up with a screaming demon inside my head urging me to “Do. Something. This. Weekend.” I run through the possibilities in my head in a defensive mental crouch, reminiscent of that one time I ...
The PSA is alarmed that ACC is proposing to shed 309 jobs including 29 dedicated injury prevention jobs at a time when the number and cost of injuries is rising. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Baker, Associate Professor in Human Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images As local and regional councils struggle with inadequate infrastructure and unsustainable costs, New Zealand will be hearing a lot more about the potential solution offered by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Sacks, Professor of Public Health Policy, Deakin University Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock In recent years, there’s been increasinghype about the potential health risks associated with so-called “ultra-processed” foods. But new evidence published this week found not all “ultra-processed” foods are linked ...
Fears that New Zealand is relying too heavily on low-cost forests to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions have been reignited by a report from the OECD. ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed the total dollar savings target from public sector cuts has been met, but the reductions have not been felt evenly across public agencies. Government departments were told to make savings set at 6.5 percent or 7.5 percent where headcount had grown by more than ...
She doesn’t have a single kind word for me and it’s getting under my skin.Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nzDear Hera,I have two amazing friends that I absolutely adore. Grace (all names have been changed) and I lived together across 2023 and Olivia moved in with us this ...
Can Western science and Māori science work together to support our well-being? The Te Ohu Mō Papatūānuku (TOMP) Trials Project was a landmark case for healing the land and people with the guidance of Māori science and leadership. This is what happened when Papatūānuku (Earth) was contaminated by toxic discharge, ...
The District Plan is a blueprint for a bigger, better Wellington, through tens of thousands of new apartments and townhouses and a new approach to urban growth. Joel MacManus lays out the vision. The process of putting together Wellington’s new District Plan has been long and excruciating. As a city, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leah Williams Veazey, ARC DECRA Research Fellow, University of Sydney DavideAngelini/Shutterstock In the 2007 film The Bucket List Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman play two main characters who respond to their terminal cancer diagnoses by rejecting experimental treatment. Instead, they go ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Singh, Professor of Agri-Food Biotechnology, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences at the University of Melbourne., The University of Melbourne Tanja Esser/Shutterstock Australia’s vital agriculture sector will be hit hard by steadily rising global temperatures. Our climate is already ...
The Acumen Edelman Trust barometer reported that New Zealand’s political trust score now sits below the global average, a topic explored in a recent discussion paper by Maxim Institute. ...
Greenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman says, "The Fast-Track Bill is the most damaging piece of environmental legislation any Government has introduced in living memory. People are angry, and it’s time to march." ...
The school lunches programme has been retained – and will be extended to some preschoolers. So how is it going to cost $107 million less? To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. The minister with many hats David Seymour wears a number of hats, but this week ...
World gets worse: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/494261/climate-records-tumble-leaving-earth-in-uncharted-territory-scientists
Collective intelligence features the bell curve, in which the majority barely comprehend why things happened to them and what's happening now. Comprehension of future trends is forever beyond them. Most people will therefore continue to vote for more of the same to preserve sheeple normalcy and inertia.
The question of collective survival hinges on our adaptive capacity. Inevitably, democracy is trending away from relevance to survival. Users are realising that election results don't help collective survival prospects. Alternative political movements that network continuously seem the best prospect – they can ride power laws…
Intelligence ?…..bell curve ?
Normal distribution about a mean – a distant memory from long ago. However a personal bias re time is also likely. Some folk are progressive by nature and always have a futuristic outlook. The bell curve of average intelligence thereby conflates with a temporal axis of orientation: most folks live in the now, some live in the past, others in the future (how they do that is most interesting).
Hmm. kinda wondered where you were going (you had also connected "sheeple" to your comment).
As…any linking of Intelligence..and Bell Curve sets off my wondering. As its quite often used as an elitist….if not eugenicist..or for that, racist, tool.
Can you expand on this? I'm not sure what you're getting at here? "power laws"?
The guts is obtainable from an overview of complexity science, network science & neuroscience (neural networks). The gist is that both people and groups can scale up their influence via leverage in network contexts.
A multidisciplinary overview is the basis for a generic theory of power laws but researchers haven't got there yet! Connecting such abstractions to human survival will be situationally-driven for most people: how to use the gnosis as part of a group's collective intelligence. Opinion leaders who forge the conceptual link will drive group survival…
Gaia Vince has a four horsemen of the apocalypse update for this century. Using tetradic framing, she identifies the four sources of mass harm during the antropocene era as heat, fire, drought & floods. Her book on consequent mass migration is The Nomad Century.
So she expects four degrees of global warming eventually. See the prognosis here: https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/index.htm
She rules out the less than two degrees warming scenario which the UN has focused on until now. Govts haven't taken the advised actions, so too late for that.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018899508/gaia-vince-mass-climate-migration-is-inevitable
Everyone wants to maintain their standard of living – or improve it. Individual incentives therefore prevail over collective survival skill development. Folks will suffer.
She sees a billion people pushed out of their habitat zone for every degree of increase. She said El Nino means the child, because it peaks at christmas. So we’re just in the initial phase of that currently.
She seems to be ignoring war – which is the one currently having the greatest impact on food production, cost and instability, internationally.
Ukraine was a massive food exporter – the infrastructural damage caused by the Russian invasion, not to mention the lives lost – has massively reduced this and had a seriously destabilizing effect on food prices. NZ, for example, doesn't import grain directly from Ukraine, but the shortages have increased prices internationally – including the sources we get our grain from.
True. Perhaps a blind spot in her belief system? One interesting view of it is any collective tendency to war is an expression of us/them, whereas the climate crisis impels a shift into collaboration. She's defaulting towards proactive global coordination – which easily becomes averse to acknowledging the animal spirits side of human nature. Once were warriors, maybe once again.
Globalising culture remains partial since many retain national or ethnic identity as ruler of their thoughts. Wars happen when males rule. Sustainability will be driven by females (most males unable to comprehend such sophisticated reasoning).
Historically, food crises (which is basically what she's talking about) always results in war (also famine, mass migration, and societal collapse). Sounds pretty similar to the traditional four: Death, Famine, Pestilence & War.
I agree. We'll get a blend of both the traditional scenario & hers. That tradition from the bible is based on four colours, and illogical since death features as one while being a consequence of all.
She told Kim that adult nappies out-sell infant nappies in Japan. Also that it’s easier for a robot to become a citizen in Japan than an immigrant human.
Really – she's talking about the intensifying reasons why food (and living environment) crises might happen. However, these have happened in the past – and the consequences are stark and well known.
Our 'technology' has been able to smooth them out over the last 150 years, and reduce the impact (I believe that all 20th century famines, for example, were political, rather than environmental); but her argument seems to be that our capacity to do this is diminishing in the face of climate change.
War causes famine and disease, and death occurs in old age to those not killed earlier.
You could equally well (and just as inaccurately) say that famine causes war and disease.
Or disease causes famine and war.
The three can be correlated, but you can't really argue that one causes the others.
And each can also occur independently:
There are wars which have not triggered significant incidences of disease or famine (Falklands War). Equally, there have been famines (e.g. Mao's great leap forward) which had no correlation with war. The most recent disease outbreak (Covid-19) – had no associated war or famine.
Death is an inevitable part of life – it comes to us all….
Historically (as observed in the ME/bible) wars involved imperial siege of cities (not paying tribute) – the consequence of a long siege was famine and disease in the city.
That death came in old age – for those not dead in wars, or of famine or disease was also observable.
Maybe it's the other way around. There might be a war because food production is impacted or will be significantly impacted in the near future. There's a reason Napoleon and Hitler targeted the East ("Kornkammer" – grain storage): It's incredibly fertile land in / around the Ukraine producing huge amounts of grain.
The Arab spring was mainly caused by food shortages.
There's clear indication the food production will decrease with higher expected temperatures. And this is not even taking disasters, like bushfires or flooding, more likely with climate change, into account.
There might be war because of food shortages. Indeed, I would say that massive food shortages frequently trigger wars.
But I don't believe that this has anything to do with the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has no significant food shortages at the moment, and is systematically destroying the capacity for food production in Ukraine (hardly the action of a power desperate to seize the undamaged capacity).
The reasons for Russia wanting Ukraine (as well as Poland, Finland and the Baltic States) – have more to do with defendable frontiers – than food production.
The Pentagon expect more conflict over resources (dams for power vs water for irrigation down stream). But the Ukraine fight is otherwise.
The world needs greater food reserves and better storage. And probably as much help/aid with flood protection as with renewable energy for some nations.
This will push up grain prices and reduce use of such feed for stock farming (thus increase meat prices and encourage other protein). And in our case may place greater focus on a protecting fertile land for market gardens and mixed crop farming (so we are self sufficient).
There's a very interesting incidence of this internally in the US – over the Colorado river.
Because of the weird way the water allocation legislation works – California can take as much water as it wants from the Colorado (including for amenities – like golf courses) – even if there is actual drought in the other states that the Colorado runs through. Other States (especially the water-poor Southwest) can only draw from the river, once California has taken as much as it wants.
The US government looks as though it may intervene – since California has resolutely refused to give up water to which it is 'entitled'
https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/04/colorado-river-water-cuts-california/
According to one doco I saw on Youtube, the basic problem for Colorado river basin is that the original water allocation agreement was drawn up between the states when the water flow in the river was very high.
So water was granted on the basis of an extreme situation that did not represent normal flow rates, hence the over-allocation. Expansion of California's population didn't help, of course, nor does declining snow fall.
I understand that these days, the river doesn't even reach the sea.
NZ has an equally poor record, with Canterbury lowland rivers like the Hinds sucked dry by irrigators.
NZ is pretty much already self-sufficient for market gardens (unless you mean very local self-sufficiency – which is probably not attainable – you'll never grow cherries in Auckland). Fresh food imports are largely over price (cheaper to grow bananas in the Philippines than NZ), or extending the season (imported strawberries from Oz), or niche things that we just don't have the climate to grow (dates).
There is little alternative to grain as stock feed for chickens (unless you want to replicate the current egg-price increases on a vast scale). And, I understand it's very little used as supplementary feed for beef or lamb in NZ (unlike the US, with their grain fattening lots).
If NZ (as a country) wants to be self-sufficient in food production – then this needs to be strongly led by the government (almost certainly requiring tariffs on imported products) – because, otherwise, it's not cost-effective for farmers – and they won't do it.
I really don't see international grain prices having any major impact on beef farming in the US. Grain is already heavily subsidised by the government – so there is unlikely to be an impact on the meat industry (they have the whip hand, and if production isn't directed toward what makes the US population happy – they'll reduce the subsidies).
For the rest of the world, meat may well become more of a luxury product – as it was in the past. [I set aside the SF proposals for vat-produced meat until we see what the quality, safety and environmental impact, actually is]
We import wheat from Oz, if they put up the price because of the world market it becomes profitable to grow here – rather than pay the world price. Thus a return to mixed crop farming.
Those in the produce supply market say we need to return to more local market gardens to reduce the risk from floods in the areas that have taken over the nationwide market in past decades.
Doing neither means food cost problems because of climate change/GW.
Only if it is more profitable for the NZ farmers (who could be growing wheat) to grow wheat instead of another crop.
In any case, the price to consumers will still go up. NZ wheat sold in NZ is sold at the same 'international' price (we see this all the time with dairy price increases).
If the retailers (supermarkets, etc.) are prepared to pay for the additional cost for growing in multiple locations in order to ensure continuity of supply – then regional market gardening may well be a thing. The issue is that some areas of the country are better environmentally suited to growing some crops, than others are.
For example – corn grown in Gisborne is more economic (cheaper to grow, better quality, longer growing season) than corn grown in Invercargill. Will the retailers be prepared to pay a higher price for poorer quality produce from Invercargill – when there is *not* an issue with the Gisborne supply? [Example, simply for illustration – I have no personal knowledge of the economics of corn growing in either locale]
I think that it's doubtful. Especially since there is no downside to the retailer *not* being able to supply a product (they simply blame floods in Gisborne for the higher prices or lack of availability).
And we still get food cost issues – unless there is a regulatory environment that prevents it (i.e. restricts imports, supports local supply)
Is it timely to again mention that my annual pollution creation is north of 4 tonne per annum..
The oecd average is about 18 tonne per annum..
The new Zealand average is north of 24 tonne…
The reasons for this being I live on a plant-based diet…and have done so for decades…
So…do we just continue to handwring/finger-point…?
To blame external circumstances..?
Or do we make the most meaningful change possible in our personal lives..
And eschew the practices of eating animals…and their bye-products..?
To do any less…and to pretend to care about your role in cooking the planet…is just bullshit-on-a-stick…
How can it not be..?
And the long term personal benefits from ceasing to eat animal flesh/fat/bye-products are undeniable..
By any measure I am old…but I am fit/healthy…I awake every morning feeling great..(no alcohol..)
This morning I curled some dumbbells..while my tea steeped…then took a very large dog..for a walk long enough to exhaust him…
So…y'know..!
The guardian makes your case for vegan climate footprint, Phillip.
That is a very good link…
It says what I am saying..
..it just does it much better..
How much longer can so many just ignore this oh so inconvenient/undeniable truth..?
It is in everyone's self-interest ..to do what this guardian piece makes so clear…so stark..
And no…recycling plastic and owning a leaf.. doesn't come within a bulls roar of doing what needs to be done…
This group/mass denial must stop..!
And need I add that we are really running out of time .?
Please..!..read that link provided by wiggle..!
With the greatest respect to the authors and researchers, they have left out the greatest thing to overcome: convenience.
We all know the supermarkets sell food that is loaded with embedded diesel miles. Food that is out of season, food from growers that have had their returns and conditions eroded, food and produce that is earning them obscene profits.
And yet… we keep filing through their doors, like the undead, in the typical zombie movie returning to the places that are familiar to them. Or ordering 'on-line', all in the name of convenience.
An anecdote from a chum who was staying with family in Ohakune. Some of the locals use Countdown in Feilding coz the local (only) New World is too dear. That is approx 1hr 20mins away.
Interesting perspective. I shop @ 3 countdowns, paknsave & new world here in NP, depending what I need at the time. NW are higher quality here but not that much more expensive. Perhaps the folk in Ohakune can't do the maths well? Cost of travel, I mean. Total time @ 2 hrs 40 mins converted to labour cost also enters in.
They may, of course, be combining the food shop with other reasons to visit the nearest 'big' town (bank trips, doctors visits, general clothes shopping, family visits, etc.).
If you are already going to Feilding – then it might make sense to do a cheaper food shop there, as well as the main reason for the trip.
You are right about the several jobs, one trip. However this is just shopping. Delivered.
They are reasonably well tuned into the issues humanity faces, one is a natural healer/homeopath.
In my friends example, the order wasn't near complete, which he could roll with but the driver (who sub-contracts to Countdown) gave him a bit of attitude – The order being incomplete "…is not my problem…" so he put the groceries back in the van. 'It is your problem now'.
You could try mentioning to your friends that growing kumera is easy here in NP, so perhaps it's possible there too. I always thought it needed a sub-tropical climate but it ain't so. I've been digging up some down my backyard the past week or two, got enough big ones to give several away to neighbours.
And that was just off one sprout that went in last spring. Got another dozen or so to dig up yet. At $10/kg that's more than $100 potential value. The tops die slow in winter – leaves that remain go pale yellow with stunted growth – but some don't die so you get partial then full regrowth the following year. I've been learning the resilience technique by experiment.
They'd have a lower average temperature due to mountain proximity despite similar latitude, and they are frost-averse. For a permaculturist, that means you have to design a microclimate for growth to be optimised (maximising daily sun, wind & frost protection systems). Glass-covered enclosures with a wee bit of side ventilation is what I'd go for.
Someone in Ohakune should buy a truck and on-sell to locals. Competition and all that.
Robert and Robin Guyton's example of the (I think) electric van doing a Riverton district loop picking up and dropping off fresh produce would be more the go.
The solutions are local, no political party has the courage or imagination to enable the solutions we need. Not one that seeks re-election anyhow.
They could do that with local produce now (in season) at a market. Maybe add milk if a local farmer was involved. And delivery for those unable to pick up. But there would still be a need to get the indoor grown crops out of season from elsewhere and the longer life shelf goods into Ohakune to drive down the local supermarket prices with competition.
I believe countdown does delivery up here,
And as for undead zombies , I'm running a large farm and raising a collage kid I'm bust and often tired, so I ain't going to be made to feel bad for getting convenience food from the nearest supermarket,
There is know way that a round trip to feilding or whanganui is cheaper than buying local.
Or maybe the author is sticking to climate knowables: the heat danger zones/vanishing shorelines that are predicted to become uninhabitable. Political outcomes, hence conflicts are less 'predictable', especially given the shifting global political framework.
please fix your username
Do what dates is she using for the Anthropocene era? Because it's not actually a thing yet I think because there is still discussion around dates.
She left out cold which kills and has killed more people each year than heat, fire, flood and drought combined.
Tetradic framing is used in general relativity to describe a model of spacetime so I'm not sure how she might have used it in her study. (or does she mean she just used different colors to represent heat, fire, drought and flood then displayed them on a round graph?)
She may predict 4 degrees but that is the worst case scenario and is based upon things remaining as they are now with nothing at all done to mitigate anthropogenic global warming.
Nobody dates the anthropocene that I've noticed – it's just a loose framing of the era we entered due to global warming. Interesting point re cold – haven't seen stats yet.
Tetradic framing derives from ancient Greek usage (tetrad = 4 items in a set). I presume your reference to relativity refers to the dimensions being four. Her usage pertains to the four sources of mass harm she expects to result from global warming. Nothing unusual there since they've been in global headlines quite often.
Re mitigation, we still don't have enough of that happening globally to discount her four degrees as too alarmist. The inertial effect of global warming is the real threat – it's already in the time pipeline – and will happen regardless. Methane clathrates, for instance:
There are just too many humans on the planet.
(8 billion and counting)
Humans are already reducing in numbers – most countries are not replacing their population (fewer than 2 children per woman) – and some are in demographic freefall.
Look at the demographics of China, for example – despite the one-child policy being rescinded – the number of children born each year continues to decline. And the population is estimated to actually start declining this year (that’s with the pretty optimistic UN figures – many other researchers note the poor quality of the official data – and think the peak was reached some time ago). [Note, China is no longer the most populous country in the world, India is]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
This is probably not a good thing – either in economic or infrastructure terms. Most countries are going to end up with a relatively small working population supporting a much higher retired population. And, few are doing any serious planning about it.
New Zealand is one of the very few countries which is not following this trend – our population demographic is pretty stable in the 0-20 age group – and our largest population tranche is at 30, not 60 (despite the often-reiterated concern over the boomers retiring). Most of our population increase comes from immigration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_Zealand
Increasing infertility seems to be a major cause of falling population rates. Too much foreign matter in our diets it seems.
Evidence?
This link below is a good read re ageing in NZ and has info regarding infertility.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300730132/welcome-to-the-hyperageing-nation-that-is-new-zealand
This seems to be about the fact that retirement communities (towns which disproportionately attract older people) – exist – and the demographic consequences.
There is nothing about infertility.
It's about hyper-ageing and its impact on our whole nation and not just retirement communities.
Sorry, it only notes declining fertility rates.
This one (link) covers infertility.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230327-how-pollution-is-causing-a-male-fertility-crisis#:~:text=In%20particular%2C%20research%20suggests%20that,rates%20of%20erectile%20dysfunction%20and
But no evidence that this issue is driving down populations.
From the article you link to:
It goes on to claim
There is a difference in population level data (where the causes of restriction on family size are well known) – and individual data (where personal infertility may well have an impact).
The article is full of highly speculative possibilities – and rather than hard facts. You might equally well argue that cancer treatment reduces fertility (it does)
The over-population handwring is b.s..
as others have noted..birthrates are actually dropping..
And a major cause of the drop in birthrate in africa has to be women getting mob phones/access to internet//contraception knowledge ..
"Humans are already reducing in numbers"
Not on the planet I live on!
The total population is still increasing
The rate of growth is reducing, but, "The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100."
The population continues to increase, because people are living longer.
The point was that the switch has already happened (fewer children being born than are needed to sustain the current levels of population). And it's not just in the 'west' – but in every urbanizing country as well (the correlation between increased urbanization/industrialization and population size is well known). Many countries have already tipped over into actual population decline (including China).
Unless you're proposing mandatory euthanasia of everyone over 65 (the non-productive class); large-scale war (the effect of the war in Ukraine has already had stark implications for Russian demographics; one-child policies on populous countries (try it on India and see how far you get), or mass starvation (we may get there, but it's hardly something to be wished for) – what alternatives are you proposing to make this population trend change more quickly?
Previously you said
"Humans are already reducing in numbers"
Now you say
"The population continues to increase"
Hopefully you can see the contradiction there.
Then in this reply you refer to
"everyone over 65 (the non-productive class);"
whereas in another reply at 10:39 (four minutes later) you state
"I work in an industry where, so long as your brain continues to function, you're a highly valued employee. I've had people over 80 on my team (working part-time – work/life balance)."
Another contradiction.
I'm making no proposals regarding population trends. The time lag between changes in birth rate & actual population is so long that it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change.
So. No ideas. Just generic hand-wringing.
What personal action are you taking to resolve the "urgent changes [in population] we need to make to minimise climate change"?
What political action do you advocate to resolve this issue?
If the answer to both is "none" – then your entire post is pointless.
The apparent-to-you contraction was in discussion to the floated possibility that you might consider that post 65 euthanasia was a solution. Another commented suggested that retirement at 65 was not sensible in all cases – and I agreed.
Or are you advocating that the euthanasia criteria should be based on assessed productivity to society?
Whoa. You do NOT add words to a direct quote from someone else, even if placed in brackets That is completely unethical.
The point of my post was to correct errors in your post(s). I observe you don't seem to handle being corrected at all well.
At no stage did I mention euthanasia, that came entirely from your mind.
It is quite clear when I said "I'm making no proposals regarding population trends . . . it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change." that it's not something to be considered.
I'm not sure why I'm bothering to answer, but at over 65, I'm a bit past taking personal action to resolve the population problem you perceive (although the vasectomy really achieved that thirty odd years ago). And as far as climate change measures, walking, cycling, public transport, zero overseas travel, all purchasing decisions carefully considered etc.
Hopefully you get the gist, & will cease suggesting motives and making judgement about people you know nothing about.
"The time lag between changes in birth rate & actual population is so long that it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change."
Your quote in full.
My apologies, since we were discussing population sizes and trends, I made the assumption that you were referring to action needed in relation to population size.
I now see that you appear to be saying there is nothing we can do about population – and need to take alternative action.
I agree. The OP (apparently) did not.
"There are just too many humans on the planet."
Maybe we should reinvent retirement, people getting to 65 and then becoming a dtag on society is dumb, people physical and mental health is better if the ar busy and contributing.
You'll find a lot of argument against increasing the retirement age, here, on TS. 🙂
I work in an industry where, so long as your brain continues to function, you're a highly valued employee. I've had people over 80 on my team (working part-time – work/life balance).
I worked full time until I was 66. Then my employer did some stupid stuff which annoyed me so I "retired". I had things to do which I did, and then I worked part time for 2 years after that because a friend rang in a panic because he had taken on a job he could not complete in time and was prepared to pay me quite a lot of $$$ to get it done. This led to the next job etc. Finally, I sent the last one back to him and said that I could not support it and neither would the authority it was to go to. I had a bit of surgery after that and have used it as an excuse to not work again.
Reinventing retirement is vastly different to just moving the goal posts,
That just punishing the physical workers and the burnt out, ,
Funding a system to keep people working through shifting to easier work ,
Just changing the cultural mindset from one of knocking off and becoming a consumer only is a start.
Nothing makes one find health problems like being under utilized and feeling mentally low,
Not the best idea.
So much of our social capital and productivity comes from people who are on a pension.
Looking after Grandkids so that parents can work, is just one example.
The problem with decreasing numbers of workers is way overhyped. The real issue is so much of the income from their productivity is captured by parasitic capital, and removed from the community. We don't need the number of people working the hours they currently do. Bullshit jobs
Technology is rapidly increasing individual worker productivity. For example two workers milking 800 cows in a few hours. The issue is those two workers pay does not reflect that. It is lower than 40 years ago.
Workers who are on realistic wages reflecting their actual contribution, and the wealthy having to contribute back some of the rents they are extracting, can easily support dependants, as they did in the 60's.
I also note that the enthusiasm for increasing the retirement age, comes solely from those with comfortable desk jobs who are lucky enough to be in good health.
The West, Japan, Korea and China do not represent the totality of the worlds demographics.
And the Five Eyes nations are growing their populations via migration all the same.
The forecast increase from 8 to 11B forecast during the century shows total birthrate is being maintained globally. However the impact of long COVID and global warming impact on lifespans is not a known (spread of disease impacting on food production and post flood disease and impact of heat on workers and old people).
Population growth via migration is 'neutral' in terms of the world's population: for there to be an increase of one person in Country A by migration, there has to be a decrease in Country B.
Please provide evidence that the birthrate is being maintained globally.
I, too, agree that the UN population forecasts are overly optimistic (or pessimistic – depending on whether you see population as a good or bad thing) – and don't take wars, famines, disasters, etc. into account.
I will, if you look for evidence to support your own claim
One wonders whose supporting evidence is compelling.
Here you go
China population numbers in (absolute) decline in 2023.
https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/history-and-civilisation/2023/03/chinas-population-is-shrinking-it-faces-a-perilous-future
So – evidence that the birthrate is being maintained globally?
I realise there are arguements within Chinese tradition to refute this, but being Han Chinese does not define being human. I am sure you do realise that the Indian population growth is larger than any Chinese decline for the foreseeable future.
I will refer to a debate with the other red who has retired (not dington but logix).
https://thestandard.org.nz/richard-heinberg-the-final-doubling/#comment-1926429
Birth changes 1950-2021
Asian 57-67M per annum.
Africa 11-45M per annum.
Rest 24-21M per annum.
Perhaps you could look at the figures between (say) 2019 and 2023. Or possibly the birth rate data for the top 10 most populous countries.
No one is arguing that the world population hasn't increased since 1950.
Straw man…..
I've provided a link showing that China (still around 1/4 of the world's population) has *decreased* in absolute terms in 2023.
India has indeed overtaken China in as the most populous country in the world. However, their birth rate is at 1.6 and continuing to decline.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India
I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".
Any increasing population figures are as a result of people living longer – not of increasing numbers of children being born.
Might that be a matter of perception versus reality?
That article warns about "the world's dire demographic trajectory", but The Economist is typically more focused on economic consequences, rather than the commonsense idea that "All our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder – and ultimately impossible – to solve with ever more people." – Sir David Attenborough
Ah, so about one generation until the global human population begins to stabilise. Don't panic – our species won't go extinct any time soon.
Spaceship Earth is currently sustaining an overshoot civilisation – with any luck humans will prove smarter than bacteria in a petri dish, and seize opportunities to decrease their numbers naturally and gradually.
You do not seem to know the meaning of the term.
The figures explained that the Asian birth numbers continued to increase despite what happened within China (one child policy and all that).
The figures also explained the increasing extent between 1950-2021 to which global birth increase was predicated on Africa.
You know why slowing rates elsewhere (in either the west, or China) did not result in a global fall.
That just demonstrates a failure to pay attention to what (the where) was driving the global increase in births.
And your explanation of the absolute decrease in the population in China in 2023 (and, according to many commentators, actually quite a bit earlier) – is?
The Chinese and Asian birth numbers have been steadily dropping since 1970. If you have a birth rate of less than 2, then the birth numbers mathematically cannot be increasing. The population increased due to people living longer. Fewer people were being born (especially in China), but the people already here were not dying off as quickly.
Have a look at this chart – showing the fertility rate in China during the 20th century. It dropped below 2 in the mid-90s (and those the the official figures – so likely to be on the high side)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033738/fertility-rate-china-1930-2020/
Here's an explanation of why the official Chinese figures are likely to be inflated.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/
When you say "maintained globally" it doesn't really represent what's happening as the countries with fertilty rates high enough to grow there population are pretty much all in Africa and the Middle East. Even India and Indonesia are rapidly closing in on 2.1 rate.
Immigration only works while there are immigrants available. If we boost our population through immigration from any country with a less than 2.1 rate then it doesn't help and if all the countries with declining birth rates import all of the new people from africa and the Middle East then how are they supposed to survive.
Some estimates have for example China losing half of it's population within the next 5 decades. That is really scary because it means compete economic collapse for China and assuming they are aware of what's happening to their country you have to wonder how they will respond? There will be 2 choices, China ceases to exist, or………?
Russia is much the same – demographic collapse (dropping total population, as well as a birth rate well under 2) exacerbated by losses during the Ukraine war (not only deaths – but especially flight of young men, from the country).
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse
Russia's population decline can be survived, it's a bit like the loss of population in Enzed provincial areas post 1980's economic change.
It's not a nation where the taxpayer base is the working population, but its economic resources.
And where there is continuing profitable economic activity migrant workers can be brought in (or made a national job training priority).
I understand that Russia's extractive industry (gas, etc) is entirely dependent on foreign expertise now. Many of whom have left the country – and are unlikely to return (the risks outweigh the returns)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/expats-quietly-leave-russia-over-financial-and-safety-worries-11646736757
The IT industry is basically hollowed out – Russia is admitting to 10% of the workers having left – the total is almost certainly considerably higher.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/04/04/1070352/ukraine-war-russia-tech-industry-yandex-skolkovo/
The current situation is not going to last decades.
Your crystal ball is clearly more powerful than mine. I wouldn't care to place any bets on the length of the current war.
The fighting will not last decades, and that call requires no more than common sense.
Yes it does, as those areas are part of the world.
There will be billions of people looking to migrate to western nations for decades to come. Economic reasons to new ones, such as CC/GW.
The nature of the migrants will change, AI and robot tech etc.
China will no more suffer economic collapse than Japan. Japan will profit from helping them out.
"China will no more suffer economic collapse than Japan. Japan will profit from helping them out."
That statement indicates you have no concept of the divide between these two countries. Japan would sit on the sidelines with popcorn and watch while China burns.
If Japan does not, China is capable of doing it themselves, by merely following their example.
That "divide" has not stopped past Japanese investment in China, and to forecast the future based on a current "circumstance/issues" is not prescience.
Oh, do tell how China (a country which has got old, faster than it has got rich), is going to copy Japan (a country which got rich, long before it got old).
Sound-bite sniper, China will have AI (labour saving) and quantum computing to help out.
And it helps them resolve the problem of maintaining employment – given the job losses in manufacture for US firms (now moving to produce more outside China).
Labour shortages result in higher wages (where they occur) and this then leads to development of the domestic services sector.
PS China has a lot of reserves – American debt etc.
They will still be among the nations with a rising population, the other nations do not need to maintain their current population level to survive.
Well at least we no longer have to wonder about what the world would look like if it heated 1.5 degrees celsius.
Back in Glasgow COP 26 2021 we were still wondering.
Two years ago.
Newshub will cover Winston Peter's NZF party conference this weekend.
Some under NZF umbrella include anti-vax doctors and anti co-governance/3 Waters activists. Lots of competition in that corner, though. NZF looking to hover up disgruntled Nats who can’t stomach ACT? The polite face of racism?
The only thing that'll get nzf over the line is if people want a hand brake on nact, I won't be one of them ,
Never forget he learnt his political credentials at the knee of one, Robert David Muldoon.
It was Muldoon who introduced Dirty Politics to NZ in the 1970s. He lied, cheated and manipulated people and situations to suit his personal ambitions. He crucified people because they had the temerity to stand up to him. He was also not above turning to the shadowy underworld to do his dirty work for him.
Peters has copied Muldoon's style with considerable success over the years. Like Muldoon, he will do whatever it takes to grab power. In Peters' case he has thrown his lot in with the conspiracy theorists and the anti-brigade together with the generally bewildered who are easy to manipulate.
I once gave him credit for helping to expose the Wine Box papers, but as far as I can tell that was about the only positive thing he's ever done… unless some want to include the Gold Card which was primarily a ploy to garner the elderly vote than having any altruistic considerations.
Peters has incredible ability and intelligence to capture pressing issues. Some of his speeches I have read are superb – sharp analyses set out in beautiful oratory – statesman territory.
But, because he is a shameless egoist with no moral compass, Peters swings to whatever populist direction wins him power on the day. If he had stuck to one position, he could have achieved much more for himself and the country in his years in Parliament.
Indeed. Had he used his undoubted talents in a truly positive way he could have been a long-term PM in his own right with majority support from both Maori and Pakeha.
Who are the anti vax doctors? I find it hard to believe any doctors would be anti vax
From NZ Doctor 2020 issue, 17 who did sign anti-vax statement.
South of Gisborne, a local doctor serving his mostly Maori community spoke against covid vaccination. As he was trusted, this decreased local vax rates. Can't readily find the link, but it was widely reported at the time.
NZF doctor is 'anti-mandate' not anti-vax, but that is essentially the same thing, defending rights to work and free movement when you aren't prepared to protect your community by having the jab.
There was one in Murupara.
Margarita Simonyan isn’t talking about Europe. Ukrainian grain will continue to be shipped there by rail.The famine they're talking about is in Africa.
Russia wants to force the West cave to Russian cruelty by starving Africans.
@visegrad24
“All our hope is in a famine” “The famine will start now, and they will lift the sanctions, and be friends with us, because they will realize it is necessary" The Russians have been telling us for months what they plan to do but the West isn’t listening
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1682296774768074752
Ukrainian grain has historically never been exported to Europe – so there has always been zero risk of famine there from the interrupted supplies.
Which is a good thing for its European neighbours (e.g. Poland) which are also grain exporting countries. Grain exported last year caused political issues – because it was 'dumped' into the local economies of other grain-exporting countries.
https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/14/eu-blocks-ukraine-grain-imports-to-five-countries-including-poland
There are major challenges with transiting grain through Europe – the rail network isn't consistent between Ukraine and most of the EU (the gauge is different) – so you'd have to break bulk; and, in any case, it's logistically impossible to shift anything like as much by train as you can by sea. They're now exploring alternative hybrid scenarios (e.g. rail to a Romanian port, then sea freight)
https://gcaptain.com/planes-trains-automobiles-cant-move-ukraine-grain-heres-why/
I think Russia is more concerned over restricting foreign exchanged earned by Ukraine (and therefore able to be spent on resisting Russian aggression), than over trying to instil a moral panic in the west about famine in Africa.
Although, I agree that Africa is certain to be the loser in this. Even if Ukrainian grain is bought by other countries (e.g. China) – if it's not available, those countries will switch to alternative sources, pushing up prices. China won't go short. Africa will.
Correct!
https://twitter.com/SquanderedTeeth/status/1682907978524164096
Doing the ground work for a wind break garden enclosure has involved digging 1.6m holes to accommodate 4.8m posts. I'd neglected to adequately cover one hole and late Friday evening my SO brought news of a deceased hedge pig lying in the bottom.
This morning I went to retrieve the carcass, gave it a nudge with the shovel and lo, it was alive!. After most of the day in a shoe box in front of the burner hedge pig is active, drinking, on it's second helping of dog roll dog and hopefully should be good to be released later this evening.
And yes, I have covered the hole and checked the others.
That is a mighty big fence.
I've windbreaked my acre at 1.2m and it was still work.
What are you growing?
Hopefully a fucking decent lemon tree or two, salt is the issue, in a 6×4.5x3M pest proof windbreak enclosure surrounding raised beds.
Two rows 124-150mm x 4.8M @3M with rammed Superpost® intermediaries @1.5M, footed and headed with tg & v retaining, wrapped and topped with deer fencing and then windbreak.
Went there, did that thirty years ago. I have mature Karo/Pohutukawa hedges to show for my troubles.
Hedgehogs are listed as noxious animals and there is a project to eliminate them. Sadly.
Gd on ya for saving the chog joe im curious tho as to why you need a big windbreak if you.ve got a mature pohut plus karo one i'd have thought would be pretty substantial by now ?
Hedge pig appeared to be fit and well after a third feed so I deposited it under the hedge and off it waddled.
Mature as in substantial and 2M high for ease of maintenance but not much chop in the face of a rolling, gusty Westerly. Plus we're fifty metres from the sea in one of the country's windiest suburbs with nothing between us and the Antarctic so salt spray is an issue. Hence citrus failure after citrus failure.
A few years ago I did buy a cheap second hand tunnel house but it was as flimsy AF so the weather slowly trashed it and all I was left with was a mountain of plastic that cost money to dispose. So I've decided to bite the bullet and build something that's far more substantial.
They hover up all manner of native wild life.
https://www.doc.govt.nz/nature/pests-and-threats/animal-pests/hedgehogs/
I have no data on this but would hesitate a guess that way more people like hedgehogs than like insects and snails, etc.
I notice on that link they say that rats must be completely eradicated from NZ. Have there been any studies done to determine any unforeseen problems on knock on effects of removing them from the ecosystem and life cycle? For example in cities, rats usually try and stay hidden from people and their impacts aren't only negative, they are also responsible for taking care of vast amounts of human rubbish and waste.
I'm not sure removing an entire species from the life cycle (that species being a highly participative part of that life cycle) won't also have negative consequences. I'm guessing the environmental powers that be would have done their homework on this stuff….
In Palmy last night, Batchelor's anti co-governance meeting managed to keep his venue (he books venues under false ids). This one was inside the council-owned lido grounds, in a separate clubroom. Police were there, for crowd control, and to carry out trespass orders, removing protester who are inside the venue.
But in this case, Batchelor illegally locked the gates, leaving the police outside them. Then people at his meeting attacked and dragged out a protester when they began whistling and showing a 'hate speech is not free speech' sign.
Police are investigating the claim of assault and threatening texts sent to someone who wanted to attend.
If you have security bouncers at such an event, they need to be licenced. Williams, the moaning racist from Chch was at a Batchelor meeting recently, and punched a couple of protesters, just for fun.
what's the source for Batchelor having locked the police out, and for Williams punching a couple of protestors in Chch?
It was in Takaka that he punched the protestors, well one he punched, the other, a woman had her arm crushed in a door, and collected one of his swings .The cops were not impressed by his attitude .
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/132555225/police-respond-to-disorder-at-stop-cogovernance-event-in-tkaka
thanks.
Debunking Conspiracies Aotearoa facebook post the one with photo of 'stop making us whiteys look bad' protest sign, gives an in-person written account of the protest. Comments around posts in the last day or so on this topic there also expand the info, based on attendees' accounts. This includes illegally locking police out of the venue.
The info about Williams comes from the same site about a week to 2 weeks ago, whenever the meeting was that he attended. It includes his own video, and he's clearly busting for a fight. He apparently was charged as a result.
Batchelor has tried to say Lee Williams is nothing to do with him , that he just attends his meetings. He lied .Williams is definitely part of the whole roadshow.He is trouble, moving amongst the protestors, filming them and trying to provoke them to say or do something stupid.He also has a short fuse, and acts as an enforcer, identifying those he decrees "hostile" and refusing them entry
In his YT videos its clear he and Batchelor are strongly connected.
tRumpian idiocy.
//
We'll be getting a new Minister of Hunting and Fishing if National gets elected.
The party also wants to change the law so that game animals like deer, Himalayan tahr and pigs are no longer classified as pests to protect our right to hunt and fish.
But one hunter says that's at odds with New Zealand's efforts to protect native forests.
Hunters from the depths of Te Urewera to the spurs of Fiordland – the National Party has your vote in its sights.
"What we've been working very hard with is the fishing and hunting interest groups to make sure we get the balance right for them," National leader Christopher Luxon said.
National will:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/national-promises-new-minister-for-hunting-and-fishing-will-stop-game-animals-being-classified-as-pests.html
Lew has thoughts. (thread)
@LewSOS
This will result in two primary shifts: * Treating game species as a resource to be managed and monetised * Consequently greater restriction and regulation of recreational hunting that will raise barriers to entry and reduce hunting rates, with consequently higher herd sizes
https://twitter.com/LewSOS/status/1682934300696780801
Byebye Doc, hello uncontrolled deer, wallabies and stoats on reserve land. Hello crazy hunters in cammo making the bush dangerous for others. Suck up to gun lobby through the backdoor. All good keen man stuff.
Looks like a 'cobble together a vote-for-us policy' to eat into ACT and to pick up interest groups without thinking it through.
Agree about deer (especially with the policy about herd protection).
Seems unlikely that wallaby and stoat hunting are economic – and will remain classed as pests (along with possums)
Most hunters are rural New Zealanders hunting to eat….
And, while they've been staunchly against things like 1080 drops – so have some of the greenest of the greens – so a ban might garner support from some unlikely areas.