- Date published:
8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, polls - Tags: labour government, labour-green government, poll watch, pollwatch
Like two buses coming at once after you’ve waited an hour, we have the second poll of the year. Unlike last time, it’s not a sexy poll, it is rather the workhorse poll that confirms what you wanted to know, and that things weren’t quite as scarily unbalanced as you think.
Colmar Brunton has released its poll for TVNZ yesterday, and it basically confirms that the general features of Reid Research’s poll aren’t rogue.
The Greens seem to be the obvious winner here, with a whopping over-97% chance of forming the next government without NZ First if we were to have a snap election a few days ago. It’s worth noting this as growing your support while being in government as a support party has basically never happened in New Zealand, so if the Greens pull off even small gains like this one, it’ll still be a bit of a historic victory.
It also has NZ First still solidly under threshold, assuming they have rounded their polling up, or down less than one per mille. (CB unfortunately rounds its public results to the nearest percent, which is fine for conveying a general level of accuracy, but terrible for doing maths on them) There’s a possibility under this poll that they could win an electorate seat and come in with as many as five MPs if an election happened during the polling period, but no possibility of being over 5% unless this poll is rogue.
As you can see above, the possibility of an outright Labour government is at a dismissably low level of support, probably suggesting that the RR result had them coming in on the higher end of their margin of error, and that Labour’s support is much more likely to be close to 45% or 46% right now, which is still incredibly respectable. It’s also weird, because since last election campaign, Labour has generally done better in this poll than in the Reid Research one. The margin of error here is technically just large enough that a House where both the Greens and NZF are under 5% and the Nats slightly exceed the Govt vote is technically possible, it’s just ridiculously unlikely.
The minor party results, despite looking a bit different in the two polls, probably reflect their normal leans of their polling methods, as RR overpolled NZ First just a little before the election while underpolling the Greens, and CB probably did the reverse, so expect each party to be somewhere between the two results.
Nothing to report on regarding Bridges and Ardern here: preferred Prime Minister doesn’t really tell us much at all about actual opinion of them, so refer to the previous Pollwatch to see how much New Zealand hates Simon.
Overall, while this isn’t a headline-grabbing poll, it’s really important as it has confirmed three important things:
As much as I support the current government over the alternatives, that last one does have me breathing a sigh of relief. After seeing the impunity National took having to deal with only needing a few extra votes, I wouldn’t be very keen to see a Labour Party that I have minor disagreements with not needing any extra votes.