RM: National Party support falls 2.5% to 43%

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 pm, June 20th, 2016 - 138 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls - Tags:

According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, the tyres are deflating on the National Party Crown Beamers:

During June support for National fell 2.5% to 43%, now just ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% would still be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government…

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 28% (down 1.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 9% (down 0.5%).

More worryingly for National’s chances next year, the RM Government Confidence Rating dropped 9.5 points to 120.5 points. Having said that, electors who say that NZ is heading in the right direction still vastly outnumber those who say otherwise.

It doesn’t appear that the MOU has done Labour any favours though, with its support slightly softening. The Greens strengthened 2.5%. Although both changes were within the margin of error.

Gary Morgan comments:

Today’s result leaves New Zealand First 9% (down 0.5%) still in the strong position to determine who will form the next Government if an election were held today.

The poll was conducted May 30 – June 12, catching basically all the immediate reaction to the Labour/Greens MOU.

138 comments on “RM: National Party support falls 2.5% to 43%”

  1. Keith 1

    Given all the rotten filthy dishonest ammunition given over by National in the last 8 years to be so deserving of this deflation, why now is it starting to look terminal all of a sudden, what is that nail (housing?) in the coffin or is it death by a 1000 cuts?

    • billmurray 1.1

      Keith, it is far to early, (and the fact that National have not dropped by much after MOU), to predict Nationals terminal demise.
      I am not happy that Labour is down 2.5% to 28% after the MOU.
      The Greens have obviously (so far) benefitted the most from the MOU and as a Labour person I worry that this trend may continue. Should this trend continue then Labour will need to back out of MOU or they risk their 2nd party status.
      More water under the bridge is needed but so far I am deflated.

      • toad 1.1.1

        If Labour support leaks only to the Greens, no probs. If it starts leaking to NZF or (aaargh) the Nats, the left will be in serious shit.

        I really don’t care whether Labour or Greens has the greater support at the next election – what I care about is that their combined vote is sufficient to defeat the Nats and that their policy consensus puts a halt to the ongoing Roger Douglas neo-lib entrism Labour has suffered from.

        • billmurray 1.1.1.1

          toad , I hear your sentiment but do not share it, for me to vote MOU then I need to see Labour in high dominance to the Greens in a coalition government, if not the deal is off for me.

          • Macro 1.1.1.1.1

            Then you really don’t understand MMP (and I gather) fortunately had no input into the MOU. If you want Labour to poll well at the next election then you need to get out and show that Labour has the hearts and minds of ordinary NZers foremost – just as as the Greens are doing – and will continue to do so up until the election.

          • weka 1.1.1.1.2

            So if Labour aren’t high enough who would you vote for in 2017?

  2. Stuart Munro 2

    Disenchantment – a thousand trivial data points gradually forms an inescapable conclusion – the Gnats are rubbish even by their own standards.

  3. I reckon it’s the death of a thousand cuts, myself. And the first big cut was self inflicted; there’s something mildly off putting about a grown man creepily fondling the hair of young women and even younger children. Throw in the failed flag referendum and the general tiredness and lack of ambition and ideas of the Key cabinet and NZ is just about ready to change the Government.

    Good work from Labour and the Greens is making it clear that there is now a real alternative.

    • Richardrawshark 3.2

      I don’t think they ever had a plan, they were struggling in opposition under Helen, Key came along offered them a win at any cost, say whatever i’ll get us back in power.

      They have just fluffed and played a time game, Even the double dipper said he didn’t have a clue early on.

      It’s been like that ever since.

    • Jenny Kirk 3.3

      + 100% trp.

      By the way, this poll wasn’t on TVNZ 1 News tonight. Odd ? But plenty about the Nats continuing to have NZ forces training up others to combat ISIS. Distraction politics ?

    • mickysavage 3.4

      I door knocked an ordinary street in West Auckland on Sunday and had a good chat to a number of people. A couple of takeaways:

      1. Everyone wanted to talk politics. This was most unusual.
      2. Everyone thought that the homeless crisis was appalling and they could not understand why the Government was not doing something about it.

      This Government is going to get skewered by its total indifference and by its cruel cynical politics in attacking beneficiaries. Suddenly all of us have a problem. The Government should be doing something and it is not.

      • lprent 3.4.1

        Coming to think of it, that is what I’ve been finding this year as well (at least when I have been around NZ).

        Non-political people are starting to discuss politics. That normally only happens in election year, and usually towards the second half of the year.

        Interesting

    • Mosa 3.5

      Only an alternative if LABOUR is polling in the 40s.
      Labour must!!! get its party share up.
      It doesn’t have much time if the Nats change leaders and call an early election!

      • Colonial Viper 3.5.1

        Very unlikely that Labour will break 30% on election day

      • Naki man 3.5.2

        What makes you think the Nats are going to change leaders.
        I think you are confused with Mr 7%.

        • Mosa 3.5.2.1

          Mr 7 % has caucus support.
          Key is compromised and despite public unity doesn’t.

          • Colonial Viper 3.5.2.1.1

            Bullshit mate. Little’s caucus support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The right wing faction and the careerist faction find it convenient to back him right now. He is not one of them.

            Key’s caucus support has to take into account the aspirations of the next generation of National leadership. Which is natural given that he has been National Party Leader for an entire decade, and his MPs know that sooner or later he will have to move on.

            • Mosa 3.5.2.1.1.1

              Yeah C V Labour has factions and have lost 3 elections in a row.
              Little has support through to the election next year and has enforced his authority with the caucus ahead of next year and have to work together if they want to reach government.
              Key is slowly bleeding support and Collins is ambitious and is tipped to have the inside running.
              The next long term leadership contenders have time on their side and even with a fourth term they can’t stay in indefinitely and will rejuvenate.

  4. Greg 4

    So far it hasnt been too cold, wait until it is and the power bills go up.
    Then the oldies that are called will change their tune.

    • Naki man 4.1

      Power prices are cheaper than they were a year ago and
      old people are pretty economical with electricity.
      So thats not going to happen.

  5. Takere 5

    Its GameOn! The Nat’s have far too much shit to push up that hill … 3rd termitis is too much for them. All the key elements are against them, the economies tanking, social issues are mounting, Goff will win Auckland, Global economic outlook too is betting against them and the environment doesn’t like them. Mataariki … seeds have been planted, lets hope.

  6. Colonial Viper 6

    Far, far too early to celebrate. National have not even begun to engage their election year strategies yet.

    What this poll indicates is that LAB/GR may be able to put a decent case to Winston to support them instead of National.

    • b waghorn 6.1

      Engage their election year dirty politics strategies.

      Fify

    • Richardrawshark 6.2

      Hmm I think they have been furiously dumping bad news CV, as usual pre election.

      Estimates will be wildly inaccurate come election time if they dump now.

    • Lanthanide 6.3

      We need to see a couple of polls of 45% L+G vs 40% for the nats before we can really get hopeful.

      • Colonial Viper 6.3.1

        Yep, party poppers are very premature at this point. If LAB/GR can pull ahead of NAT for a couple of polls, then they will have a good basis to go into election year with.

        Also, keep an eye on the global economic situation. I think its going into the shitter as we speak.

    • Chooky 6.4

      +100 CV

    • Mosa 6.5

      CV Labour has to be the largest party if it is to get the confidence of parliament and form a govt MOU or no MOU

      • Mosa 6.5.1

        If the Nats on election night are ahead and special votes aren’t needed they will get first crack at forming a government.
        Labour has to get direct appeal and inspire people to get out and support them.
        I just don’t see a watershed election happening like 1972 1984 1990 or 1999 when you could feel change was a real possibility
        At this stage the Tories have the support in the party vote, the trend had not changed.

        • Mosa 6.5.1.1

          And Muldoon’s 1975 dancing Cossacks election.

          • Colonial Viper 6.5.1.1.1

            Muldoon’s Super plan was better and more universal than Labour’s.

          • Chris 6.5.1.1.2

            Maybe Labour should do something similar but instead of dancing Cossacks there’s a series of graphics showing Key pulling ponytails and with every ponytail pull we see jobs increasing, warm homes springing up for everyone, people skipping out of hospitals all healthy and everyone and their families with a dollar in their pocket and big happy smiles on their faces? In a few years we’ll be saying “remember the 2017 election with all those little John Keys running around pulling ponytails?”

            • Kiwiri 6.5.1.1.2.1

              @ Chris

              LOL !

              Yeah, lots and lots of John Key’s magical solutions as ‘pop ups’ !

            • Anne 6.5.1.1.2.2

              A humorous but very biting campaign ad is a great idea. Not sure about the pony tails but there’s so much incompetency showing through now, Labour and the Greens are spoilt for choice. Imagine what could be created with a “pop up” economy.

              Edit: Kiwiri has beaten me to it. 🙂

    • AmaKiwi 6.6

      Colonial Viper

      “What this poll indicates is that LAB/GR may be able to put a decent case to Winston to support them instead of National.”

      Scientific studies do NOT support this view. It is called a “winning minimum coalition.” It means coalition governments consist of the minimum number of MPs needed to control parliament: 51%.

      Therefore the next coalition government will include the least number of MPs required to govern. Maths will determine the coalition, not your or my hopes and dreams.

      • Colonial Viper 6.6.1

        Has Winston read these scientific papers? Hopefully he has, or he might act in his own way, which is less deterministic than this.

        • AmaKiwi 6.6.1.1

          Winston’s no fool which is why he refuses to make any commitment about with whom he might partner.

          This political science was available when he was at university.

  7. weka 7

    It doesn’t appear that the MOU has done Labour any favours though, with its support slightly softening. The Greens strengthened 2.5%. Although both changes were within the margin of error.

    Perhaps it’s time to reframe this. Does it matter much how the ratio changes from poll to poll? Within .5% of National seems the more pertinent thing.

    • Colonial Viper 7.2

      I am hesitant to take a more positive spin on the situation until LAB/GR actually overtake the NATs by 2% or 3%. Basically I think the NATs are approaching their pre-election year low now, but that they are going to bounce back as they start pushing into campaign mode.

      I would say that the NATs are probably irrecoverable history if the RM has the NATs going down to 40%.

      • weka 7.2.1

        I also think it is too early to get overly excited, although it’s a nice bit of motivation for the left. My comment was more about I think it’s time we started seeing the L/G bloc and were less concerned about the ratio of their numbers. I’m guessing it will jump around a fair bit, but in the end the important thing is that they get to be in government. It doesn’t matter too much to me how they share votes, more important is the votes that come from elsewhere.

      • billmurray 7.2.2

        CV, I am with you,
        I would go further and say 28% for Labour after the MOU is a black eye for Andrew Little and the Labour Party, delivered by the Kiwi battler.
        Not a knockout but Labour should be concerned.

        • Colonial Viper 7.2.2.1

          Some traditional LAB supporters I know did not like the MOU one bit. They considered it a crazy strategy.

          • Whateva next? 7.2.2.1.1

            Unfortunately there are not enough of those traditional Labour supporters to get Labour into government, so what do they suggest?entirely predictable response I am afraid, and very frustrating for those of us who are concerned about the damage being done to society’s infrastructure while the opposition are in the back rooms bickering. Hallelujah for cooperation at last, stop with the tribalism, we are mature enough to maintain party values and work together.

        • Mosa 7.2.2.2

          Excellent logic !!!

      • Hanswurst 7.2.3

        I don’t think the Nats have a natural pre-election-year low. Why should they? Such a low is reliant on a general lull in political newsworthiness until the election campaign gets swinging. True, they will have a bunch of strategies that they plan to get rolling out from some time closer to the election, but what recent months indicate is that politics is comparatively newsworthy, and the public has stopped responding in the required measure to the strategies that they have employed without fail over the last eight years. They also show that the government is beleaguered on various fronts, including house prices, homelessness, trade, fiscal responsibility and transparency. They have become intensely reactive and are finding it difficult to set the agenda.

        Assuming that the problems keep piling up, they may very well find that the strategies they have planned are not answering the questions that are being asked. In that case, they will have two options: shut their eyes and push their planned message or panic, throw their songsheet to the dogs and start putting out fires wherever they spring up. The latter is the only one that has a chance of working, but panicking also raises the risk of more stupid mistakes. Of course, if the stream of mis-steps and scandals dries up, they may get back on track.

        • Olwyn 7.2.3.1

          +100 Hanwurst – I think your comment here is spot on. Of the two options you outline in your last paragraph, I think Key will want to shut his eyes and press on with the program – he seems to view actually addressing the problems that plague ordinary citizens as tantamount to surrender. However, he may not be able to do that effectively if he cannot regain control of the agenda.

      • Puddleglum 7.2.4

        they are going to bounce back as they start pushing into campaign mode.

        In the Roy Morgan link is a graphic for the long term trend in polling going back to pre-2008. In the months prior to each election since then National’s support has declined from its previous polling as election day approaches.

  8. Richardrawshark 8

    Elevator going down…

    As I have always said, their stupid policies cause massive issues but it seems to take a while to blow up in their faces.

    • billmurray 8.1

      Richardrawshark, yes the elevator is going down for the Nats, but as a Labour person I also see the elevator going down for Labour, going up for the Greens. The script told us that both MOU parties would lift. The MOU has not done that, “Peter pays Paul” is not good enough to get rid of National.
      The Greens will be whooping, Labour will be pondering.

      • What script? I don’t recall anyone saying both parties would rise or that any rise would be equally shared.

        • billmurray 8.1.1.1

          te reo uptake, don’t you remember “both of us will be stronger together”, often echoed by the 3 leaders.
          I still say that Labour needs to seriously ponder the RM resuts, Labour have been around for a hundred years, the Greens for a few years. Labour must get the most out of the MOU or they will collapse.

          • Macro 8.1.1.1.1

            Labour have to show that they have left the neo-liberal agenda behind first before the “voters” who have given up voting will have any confidence to give them their vote again – and their half hearted response on the 90 day “fire at will” legislation is a case in point.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Labour ain’t giving up their neo-lib agenda; there is not a single left wing socialist/democratic socialist/communist Sanders or Corbyn in that 32 member caucus.

              The right wing faction and the careerist faction are by far the two strongest factions in Labour today.

              Little by backing the TPP and by stating that Labour will always believe in free trade has doubled down on capitalism and neoliberalism as the future of NZ and the future of Labour.

          • te reo putake 8.1.1.1.2

            I don’t think that’s an actual quote and I don’t recall anything similar being said by the 3 leaders. And bear in mind I was there at the launch and even spoke to two of the three leaders after the event. My impression is that Labour and the Greens want to see the combined vote rise and minor changes in the individual party’s support don’t much worry them.

      • Richardrawshark 8.1.2

        I thought the MOU was a wrong move but have remained quiet trusting those in charge of labour. I also think any poll drop will be a short lived protest, I don’t think the sentiment will last and would like to see a couple more poll results to make any definitive conclusion.

      • weka 8.1.3

        They’ve only just signed the thing. I think it’s premature to be going off one or two polls. The point of doing the MoU this far out was so that they had time to build the relationship and demonstrated to NZ that they are a govt in waiting. They’re only just starting on that process.

        • Richardrawshark 8.1.3.1

          =Weka, yep that’s why I am ignoring Labours drop. It’s not going to be a shift to the right.

          The only thing I have noticed that’s important is Nationals drop, they had been steady for so long, 3 drops at least in a row and falling confidence in the direction NZ is heading. That’s the data mine out of it all I could see.

          And it’s not a trifling conclusion either.

          People don’t lose faith in the direction the country is heading when they are happy with who’s managing the course, so to speak IE, they realize just how fucked up nationals policies are. They believed the spin, they gave him a chance now they are drifting back, disappointed they believed the brighter future line and higher standards BS..

  9. Richardrawshark 9

    Interesting to look at the Roy Morgan poll, when we changed government to john Key 51% of people thought the country was heading in the right direction after key wins it quickly rises to around 70% in 2012 ish then has slowly declined, currently at 59% it recently dropped to 56.5 the lowest it’s been under him.

    Since 2012 as the country wised up to the smoke , mirrors and fog, of nationals gutsy feely neo lib american style nightmare ,the confidence in his direction has been consistently tracking downwards, I conclude this is a good sign and lets hope it continues.

  10. Kenya 10

    Oh FFS the Roy Morgan is bunk.

  11. Takere 11

    It is shaping up to be the kind of election you really wouldn’t want to win with the cupboards empty again. Massive amounts of debt racked up both Crown & private. Plummeting exporting revenues. A trade agreement that locks us into a War Pact with the US who will get it on with China, Russia & Syria and anyone else …. all at the same time whether Clinton or Trump wins. Unless Bernie can come up trumps with Clinton as a running mate or Warren? Clinton gets impeached?? Might be everyone’s preferred outcome?
    Key will take the job at the BoA. He’s had enough. It’ll be a bitch fight between Crusha Collins & Pullah Benefit! The boys haven’t got the cahones to get in the ring. Dildo Joyce has been grafting for his mates so he’ll be sweet and the boy from a little hick town where the sheep get to shelter in pens at night all year round, Blinglish will stay on cause he hasn’t got a clue of what to do in the real world.
    An early election I reckon when they realise the games up and nobody’s buying their bullshit anymore. The Nat’s have maxed out their vote, they might be able to pick the conservative vote if they don’t run again? Just need the middle-class to do what they do well…swing a little, 2%?
    Finga’s x’d

    • mauī 11.1

      As Nicole Foss and some other economic commentators have said when this thing tanks no matter how good the Government is they will still cop the majority of blame for it.

    • Richardrawshark 11.2

      It’s a matter of having too, we cannot continue down this divisive social and self destructive economic path. The longer it continues the harsher and longer it will take to reverse, the longer the social harm continues, the more damaged and hence more resources reversing that, will consume.

      I think it’s like a mid catastrophe, sooner we do it the better.

    • Jack Ramaka 11.3

      Hit the nail on the head.

    • Colonial Viper 11.4

      The cupboards aren’t bare. The NZ Govt can borrow another $150B easy without question.

      And the NZ public can equal that.

      Of course, it would be more sensible for the country to move to a Reserve Bank issued NZD funding policy instead of a borrowed NZD one.

    • Enough is Enough 11.5

      Takere – What the actual fuck?

      This is when a nation needs a good government. It is certainly not one you want to lose.

      Any muppet can govern when things are going well. It is when the cupboards are empty that the poor suffer and we need a strong socialist government.

  12. fisiani 12

    “The Greens strengthened 2.5%. Although both changes were within the margin of error.”
    So an apparent 2.5% drop for National is also well within the margin of error by a factor of at least 3. Do the maths!

    • Paul 12.1

      Says a man who defends a government that does not house its citizens.

    • Richardrawshark 12.2

      Nationals drop is more significant than a left spread.

      The confidence in the direction we are heading according to RM has been in decline since 2012 for national and it’s coalition, that’s a long term decline with the opposition gaining as a result. The hypes wearing off, your slogans and lies have had their time, the people are on to the likes of Hootens and ilks spin.

      Enjoy nationals remaining time, it won’t be long now Fisi sorry. Cycles dude, it’s inevitable.

  13. billmurray 13

    I would appreciate Swordfish’s comments on this matter.

  14. Incognito 14

    I dislike political polls but FWIW this poll started 4 days after Budget Day and despite the $3 billion tax cut bribe National dropped 2.5%!

  15. Jack Ramaka 15

    Most New Zealanders think NZ is going good as Bill and John have managed to get the country back into surplus after Labour got us so far into the shit.

    • Richardrawshark 15.1

      No. Most NZ’ers know that’s not true.

    • Colonial Viper 15.2

      A government surplus is roughly the worst possible thing, economically, for the nation.

      • Richardrawshark 15.2.1

        Elaborate CV?

        • Craig H 15.2.1.1

          A government surplus means the money comes out of the private sector, which typically means they borrow it, so we trade public ďebt for private debt.

          • Colonial Viper 15.2.1.1.1

            Yep, exactly. Or put another way:

            1) A government whose books are in the red is generally spending more money into the community than they are pulling taxes out of the community.

            2) A government whose books are in the black is generally pulling more tax money out of the community than they are spending into the community.

            I prefer to live in a country where I can increase my household savings because the government is taxing me less, while the government is spending more into my community,

            Compared to living in a country where the government is taking more of my savings via more taxes, and cutting back on spending in my community.

      • tricldrown 15.2.2

        So CV the budget night surplus has disappeared.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 15.3

      You have zero chance of understanding the answer to this question:

      In 2008, which New Zealand politician said “this is the rainy day the government has been saving up for”?

      The reason you have no chance of understanding it is that you’re a dupe.

      Alternatively, you do understand it, and therefore you’re a dupe and a liar.

      Which is it, stupid and dishonest, or just stupid?

      • Richardrawshark 15.3.1

        Bill did, A government surplus being good or bad is a point of view, and depends on the economic climate at the time, I was just asking why CV thought that, I am neither Dumb stupid or a dupe, but thanks for caring and sharing that part of your psyche.

        • Lanthanide 15.3.1.1

          OAB was replying to Jack, not you.

          You need to learn how commenting threads work here.

  16. Michael 16

    Labour’s support is right back to where it was on election day 2014 – it’s lowest ever since 1928. The hierarchy’s plan to get the Greens to drag Labour over the victory line in 2017 looks unlikely to work – because of Labour’s toxicity, not the Greens’ (their support went up). Perhaps Winston will get Grant Robertson and co into the Beehive next year instead? One thing’s for sure: the voters know that Labour stinks.

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Labour’s support is right back to where it was on election day 2014

      LAB is 28% in this poll, 3% higher than it got in the 2014 election.

      Please check your facts before spouting, next time.

      • Michael 16.1.1

        So they did. Mea culpa. Labour’s support since polling day 2014 has gone up by a whole three points, from 25 to 28 percent (thanks to Swordfish’s excellent table, which I’ve copied and pasted here). The Nats remain well ahead of Labour, which has not benefitted from the deal with the Greens. Neither have the Greens, I see, which leads me to infer that Labour remains politically toxic, Hanswurst. Based on the running aggregate of these numbers, I think the Nats are looking comfortable for a fourth term, in which they may or may not need to be propped up by Winston. FWIW, I think this is a revolting prospect, for which Labour has only itself to blame.

        Party/Bloc … 2014 ……………………….. 2015 ………………………….. 2016 …..
        ……………………4/4…………..1/4…….2/4……..3/4…….4/4………….1/4…….2/4

        Labour………..25…………….29………26………30………29…………..28…….28
        Green………….15…………….11………12………13………12…………..14…….14
        L+G……………..39…………….40………38………43………41…………..42…….42

        NZF……………..7……………….6…………7………..7………..6…………….7……..10
        Oppo…………..46……………..46……….46………50……..47…………..49…….52

        Nat……………..46……………..49………..50……..46………49…………..47…….44

        Nat/L+G……….7……………….9…………11………3………..8…………….6……….2

        Govt;……………49……………..51………..52……..48……….51…………50…….46
        Right…………….52…………….53………..53……..49………52…………..50………47

        O/G Lead ……..G 2…………. G 5……….G 6…….O 2…….G 4………….G 1……O 6

        O/R Lead ………R 5…………. R 7 …….. R 7 ……. O 1 ….. R 4 ………. R 1 ….O 5

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1

          3 points is 4 MPs and enough to put National out of Government, particularly if National has lost 2-3 points as well.

          • tricldrown 16.1.1.1.1

            With Ohariu not a shoe in for the hair piece we have already see Dunne vote against the govt.

    • Hanswurst 16.2

      Surely, if Labour were toxic, the Greens would have lost support after doing a deal with them. Next time, please check your thought-processes before spouting.

    • ALH84001 16.3

      The mistake (by msm as well as commentors) is to treat Labour as a single party. The reality is that the Labour-Green bloc should be counted together, just as National is made up of (hidden) factions.

      So the real test is to see if Labour-Green rises or falls in contrast to National.

      As for NZ First, they are the real potential spoiler and we could see Winston supporting a fourth term for Key’s government. It’s happened before.

  17. Rae 17

    Watch out for Shane Jones coming back to contest Whangarei with NZF, to maybe supplant Ron Mark as deputy. After the last couple of years and having been given a nice cushy number by the Nats who would you think
    A) He would want NZF to go with
    B) Put him up to it in the first place

    I think there might be a whiff of more voter manipulation from the Nats. I suggest Labour organise themselves a VERY strong candidate for the Whangarei electorate and get him/her on the ground now.

    • JanM 17.1

      Northland has changed since the last election – now full of Auckland escapees – could alter the pattern of voting – immigrants are less likely to be sleepwalking and may not appreciate the finer points of the ‘good old boyos’ that have dominated the north for so long

      • Rae 17.1.1

        National have a history of manipulating voting, would be very foolish not to be prepared for this possibility.

  18. save nz 18

    The MoU has been positive – as a block they are up. One of Labour’s biggest problems in the past is flip flopping around without direction after they get negative news. This makes them easy to manipulate and leads to further voter loss when they over/under react.

    Labour and Greens have made a decision to partner up and they need to play it confidently and well to the end.

    One of the most interesting things is that National is down. Labour / Green only .5% behind and can gather a lot more momentum behind them.

    Bad news for the Natz is going to keep coming all year, as all their bad decisions come home to roost.

  19. Ad 19

    OMG, the Greens may actually get a seat in Australia! In the Inner Melbourne seat of Batman, the Labor candidate is getting pantsed:

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-poll-points-to-greens-batman-win-20160620-gpnb6y.html

    Can they keep it up through July?

  20. NoThanks 20

    National might have pissed off some people, but in an election people will judge whether the party of worth voting for based on personal interests rather than those sob stories by John Campbell.

    My friends are all lawyers, engineers, and finance people in their late 20’s and some are older in their 30’s.

    Despite that they have well-paying jobs, almost none of them are having children and among those who have children, they have got at most two instead of these sob stories which all of them have five or more children.

    The victimizers of those people who have no management skills nor education are themselves, not the society. John Campbell is a bleeding heart leftie who hates those who worked super hard and succeeded like John Key. #Respect

    “They’re casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first.” —- Thatcher

    “I didn’t do an engineering and finance conjoin degree to work in a stressful job while learning Python and R after work so that I can get to pay loads of tax for others’ mistakes.” —- NoThanks

    • Anne 20.1

      I do hope your lawyers, engineers and finance people friends have a better grasp of English grammar and comprehension than you are displaying. If they haven’t, then God help us.

      • Kiwiri 20.1.1

        Maybe gNatz are trialling their 90-second AI (not artificial intelligence but artificial idiocy) which they recently purchased from their overflowing coffers.

      • North 20.1.2

        Anne @ 20.1 it would not surprise me in the least if the rave from NoThanks is nought but fantastical snobbery………”My friends…….’all’ lawyer’s and engineers and finance people etc etc.”

        If I am wrong however then we have our very own Rush Limbaugh. A sociopath who sees human misery as a bunch of sob stories to be mocked and sneered at. A person we call an ‘arse-soul’

        • Anne 20.1.2.1

          NoThanks is nought but fantastical snobbery………”My friends…….’all’ lawyer’s and engineers and finance people etc etc.”

          Of course. They are probably acquaintances who occasionally give him/her the honour of allowing him/her to converse with them at the local pub or sports club. As an apparent semi-literate, I doubt he/she is one of them. If he/she is… then we’re in deep trouble.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 20.2

      Meanwhile, on Earth, your beloved IMF isn’t returning your calls anymore. Sob sob.

      Oh, and while I’m at it, why does the number of people who make poor choices (according to your witless delusional rote-learned gobshite) always increase when the National Party is in government?

      • save nz 20.2.1

        There seems plenty of money for Saudi and TPPA sell off roadshows. I guess corporates need taxpayer’s help more than citizens. That might be why they call it ‘free’ market.

        Next we will have another Granny article with Sky City corporates and oil execs crying into their hankies about being bullied like Paula Bennet, and how they need more cash from government…

    • Rae 20.3

      “No society”? You believe that? Really?
      How about “No man is an island”.

    • Colonial Viper 20.4

      Hi NoThanks,

      Did you know if you increase the education level of your population, and make more higher paying professional jobs available in the country, the birth rate will drop?

      A government could plan to do that for its people, you know.

      Instead of your stupid blaming bitching.

    • Richardrawshark 20.5

      -Nothanks, No idea what life is about or why your even here, good luck in your life, when you reach the end, remember everything you ever did or made will be but atoms in years to come. Your boasting about something that is completely vacuous.

      Oh and PS when you pay tax, it’s to enjoy the benefits of life, you focused only on the negatives of paying tax ignoring all the positives, and too boot the negatives you have are blown out of proportion to the truth by media and spin merchants to make you confirm your prejudicial and judgemental conclusion.

      When most people hear what you said, they say the same thing, here’s another bloke who’s hooked on the spin as it suits his misconceptions, he’s sort of right but blames everything on the few.

      Like business owners, some exploit and are complete scum rip wholesalers off, don’t pay tax, I don’t go around going ALL business owners are scumbag arseholes and my taxes are bailing them out.

      But thanks anyways for sharing your thoughts, sad as I think they are.

    • Anno1701 20.6

      ““I didn’t do an engineering and finance conjoin degree to work in a stressful job while learning Python and R after work so that I can get to pay loads of tax for others’ mistakes.” —- NoThanks”

      im sure thats going to bring you loads of joy when your sitting in a rest home one day lonely & sad trying to get some convo out of the staff ( who really cant give 2 shits about another old lonely man who no-one ever visits rabbiting on about how successful he WAS ) thinking to yourself ” f#*k the double degree i should have actually done something meaningful with my life & had kids”

      enjoy the soup for one !

  21. upnorth 21

    So sad that Lab/Green combo is now the talk…Labour is crashing and burning badly. There is no way Labour can ever get to 40% outright under Little.

    This combining of 2 parties is a waste of time and trying to fine a silver lining. Little and the unions have created havoc in Labour.

    • save nz 21.1

      @upnorth – crashing so hard they are now within .5 of National.

      So nice you have a crystal ball of forecasting about Labour not getting 40%, pity Nat lovers could not forecast that milk prices were a commodity going up and down or that people would be living in tents under their policies.

      • Colonial Viper 21.1.1

        Labour is not going to get 40%. They are not going to get 35%. On a very very lucky day they might scrape up to 30%.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 21.2

      Thanks for your concern.

      The unemployment rate in 2007 was ~3%. Now it’s ~6%. Homelessness has increased by at least an order of magnitude.

      How do you account for that massive increase in poor choices? It looks like the policies that dribble down your chin ended up all over your nice clothes.

  22. swordfish 22

    Comment Numero Uno

    So now we have 4 consecutive Roy Morgans placing the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt Bloc. Or, to put it another way, NZF has theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.

    That’s an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.

    Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:

    Bold = Oppo Lead
    Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
    (all figures rounded for simplicity)
    (IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)

    2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points

    Roy Morgan Polls
    2014
    Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
    Nov …………Govt by 5
    Dec …………Govt by 3

    2015
    Jan …………..Govt by 12
    Feb ………….Govt by 2
    March ……..Govt by 2
    April ………..Oppo by 1
    May ………..Govt by 14
    June ………..Govt by 6
    July ………….Oppo by 7
    Aug …………Govt by 6
    Sep …………Oppo by 5
    Oct …………Govt by 3
    Nov ………..Govt by 4
    Dec ………..Govt by 4

    2016
    Jan …………Govt by 3
    Feb ………..Govt by 2
    March ……Oppo by 4
    April ………Oppo by 8
    May ……….Oppo by 3
    June ……….Oppo by 7

    Before March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.

  23. swordfish 23

    Comment Numero Due

    Taking a broader look at trends in the Roy Morgans on a Quarterly basis since the 2014 General Election:

    L+G = Labour + Green
    Oppo = Opposition Bloc (excludes IMP/Mana)
    Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over combined Labour/Green
    Govt = Govt Bloc
    Right = Govt Bloc + Cons
    O/G = percentage point lead for Govt or Oppo
    O/R = percentage point lead for Right or Oppo

    (Figures rounded for simplicity. In some cases, rounding means stats may not appear to add up – eg final quarter of 2014 rounded figures have Lab 25, Green 15 = 40% – but precise figure is 39. Similarly, 2/4 of 2015 rounded figures – L+G 38, Nat 50 suggest 12 point gap, but precise figures suggest 11 point margin etc)

    Party/Bloc … 2014 ……………………….. 2015 ………………………….. 2016 …..
    ……………………4/4…………..1/4…….2/4……..3/4…….4/4………….1/4…….2/4

    Labour………..25…………….29………26………30………29…………..28…….28
    Green………….15…………….11………12………13………12…………..14…….14
    L+G……………..39…………….40………38………43………41…………..42…….42

    NZF……………..7……………….6…………7………..7………..6…………….7……..10
    Oppo…………..46……………..46……….46………50……..47…………..49…….52

    Nat……………..46……………..49………..50……..46………49…………..47…….44

    Nat/L+G……….7……………….9…………11………3………..8…………….6……….2

    Govt;……………49……………..51………..52……..48……….51…………50…….46
    Right…………….52…………….53………..53……..49………52…………..50………47

    O/G Lead ……..G 2…………. G 5……….G 6…….O 2…….G 4………….G 1……O 6

    O/R Lead ………R 5…………. R 7 …….. R 7 ……. O 1 ….. R 4 ………. R 1 ….O 5

    After reaching an initial apex during the third quarter of 2015, the Opposition have now experienced an even greater surge – though, as you can see, largely on the back of what is almost certainly a significant Nat-to-NZF swing (putting aside the more complex array of swings and counter-swings that always go on under the surface of the net flow of support) .

    • swordfish 23.1

      Dang ! Just needed another 5 minutes of editing time to get that table truly ship-shape. Improved it a bit but still looking a little messy.

      • Pasupial 23.1.1

        Swordfish

        Thanks a lot for your contributions. I find polls a lot more credible as trends over time rather than single snapshots. Perhaps if you crafted your comment in a word processor and then cut&pasted it over you would do better with the formatting (or maybe even post a spreadsheet image in a guest post)? I think it is legible enough, though with the double spacing, it is a bit hard to get all the numbers on screen at once. BTW, what is the name of your website again? My old comp fried a while back and I don’t have it bookmarked on my new browser.

        However you did miss out one important set of numbers; Nat + NZF, which I make:

        ………………….2014… 2015…………………………….. 2016
        Nat + NZF….. 53…… 55……. 57….. 53…… 55….. 54……54

    • McFlock 23.2

      Yep.

      My impression is that the nats have shot themselves in the foot by treating their rural supporters with contempt and viewing their only vote-leak as being to the floating voters moving more towards the center.

      Now NZ1 is solidly entrenched with social conservatives and rural folk.This makes the nats look weaker, which lends legitimacy to Lag/grn.

      • fisiani 23.2.1

        My impression is that National’s share of the vote has not moved at all. Just the usual fluctuation. This is the Roy Morgan poll after all and every green shoot of hope is soon followed by the false dawn. Watch as the Labour poll sinks lower and lower from the current 28%. Labour + Greens will not reach 50%. Winston will never play third fiddle. The deckchairs are being rearranged but the Lab/Green titanic is still sinking.

        • Pasupial 23.2.1.1

          fisiani

          You are evidently not very good at understanding numbers (or anything that contradicts your prejudices for that matter). The nominal Margin of Error is just over 3%, so National rising from 46 to 50% between the end of 2014 the mid 2015 is statistically significant. Also significant is National’s fall from that height the following quarter, and their fall from 49% to 44% between the end of 2015 and now.

          If I am wrong in this, please specify exactly what your nebulous term of; “the usual fluctuation”, might actually mean.

          • McFlock 23.2.1.1.1

            please specify exactly what your nebulous term of; “the usual fluctuation”, might actually mean

            that’s the slight quaver in his voice as his haw-hawing becomes more desperate…

          • fisiani 23.2.1.1.2

            The margin of error is over 3% thus National could be on over 46%. Normal service results will appear soon. I never cease to be amazed by how a trivial change in a single poll is greeted with triumphalism yet every contrary poll is apparently a rogue poll. When Right direction is a massive 120 there is no general mood for change. If the economy improves people veer to the comfort of National. If the economy worsens people veer to the safety of National.

            • McFlock 23.2.1.1.2.1

              hmmm.
              and yet when they were on 50% then the lowest they could have had at 3% margin for error was 47%.

              If we take your best possible abuse of the term “margin of error”, that’s a 1% decrease for national. If we take your worst probably case, that’s 53% down to 40%.

              Keep rolling yourself in glitter, haw-haw

              • North

                “Keep rolling yourself in glitter, haw-haw”. Brilliant McFlock. Have a mind’s eye picture of a painfully extruded malodorous stool called Fisiani, smearing up its keyboard.

            • Richardrawshark 23.2.1.1.2.2

              LMFAO, if your not bothered why did you post?

              Regardless of the party poll, the biggest indicator your starting to look like shit too the public of NZ is their answers to do you think NZ is heading in the right direction. Pollers are dropping like flies on that and have been since 2012, you can’t gloss up what’s happening to your policies and the effects they are having, can you?

            • Colonial Viper 23.2.1.1.2.3

              The margin of error is over 3% thus National could be on over 46%.

              National’s 6 month moving average in the Roy Morgan is 45.4%

              A year ago it was 49.4%

              So they’ve definitely lost support over the last 12 months. Equivalent to losing 5 MPs.

              Can LAB and GR capitalise on this change though, and come up with some really gutsy policy. Or are we going to see more play it safe middle of the road, non-committal stuff.

        • McFlock 23.2.1.2

          Yes dear.

        • ALH84001 23.2.1.3

          Fisiani, the Roy Morgan poll is the one to watch. Remember that it’s the only (?) polling company that calls cellphones as well as landlines, so in that respect they are more credible than pollsters who have the Nats at stratospheric heights like 52%, 55%, and other BS.

          “Watch as the Labour poll sinks lower and lower from the current 28%. ”

          Well, as they say; Watch This Space!

  24. Anno1701 24

    ” If the economy improves people veer to the comfort of National. If the economy worsens people veer to the safety of National.”

    heres to a glorious reign of 1000 years !

    hang on that sounds familiar ?

  25. Don't worry. Be happy 25

    Have, for the first time ever, participated in two landline polls in last month….this RM and another one. Forget who sorry, but same focus….who would you vote for and what does the future look like for you type questions. Both oddly I thought, wanted at the end of all the the questions to know my opinion of the All Blacks and if I was a fan.

    • Richardrawshark 25.1

      All black watchers must be Nat supporters or a high percentage? a question to narrow down your political leanings?

  26. Awaiting the next poll to see if it confirms the trend, but I share CV’s view of the situation, and others who’ve made similar comments.

    The 2% shift of centrists away from the Nats means they lose Ak Central & Ohariu. Key can’t form a govt, even with Seymour and the Maori Party retaining 2 seats. Sensing the zeitgeist, folk are reacting against a government out of touch with the world around them, but the MoU is merely the faint flicker of a beacon of hope to them so far.

    Farrar posted the RM poll without any comment other than Greens up, Nat/Lab down. Within the margin of error, so the anti-establishment shift indicated may be illusory. Farrar’s respondents were mostly clueless as usual but some were more thoughtful, speculating on how Peters will exploit the inevitable opportunity. I can’t see him giving Key a 4th term as PM, nor the Nats offering him what he believes he deserves. If I were with the right, I’d be thinking wtf do we do now (if I were with the left, I’d expect my comrades to fall into the complacency trap, as usual).

    • Anne 26.1

      Agree with your summation Dennis Frank but I am hopeful the MoU proves to be more than a flicker of hope. It was never going to be swift game changer but – if L&G play their cards right – it’s polling rates should slowly improve as we approach the 2017 election. I am in no doubt this govt. will have no compunction about deliberately creating a crisis so they can call an early election. L&G need to be prepared for an election next winter.

      (if I were with the left, I’d expect my comrades to fall into the complacency trap, as usual).

      I’m an L.P. member but I’m looking to the Greens to ensure it doesn’t happen.

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