Roy Morgan has Winston on 5%

Written By: - Date published: 12:52 pm, September 19th, 2008 - 92 comments
Categories: election 2008, nz first, polls - Tags: ,

If the latest Roy Morgan poll is to be believed, John Key’s big gamble of ruling Winston Peters out of any future coalition may well turn out to be one of the stupidest plays in New Zealand’s political history.

According to the poll, NZ First has increased its hypothetical share of the vote to 5%, and while Labour are down and National are up it’s far less of a swing than expected given the recent negative media coverage over Owen Glenn and the Privileges Committee.

For Labour, Winston’s presence provides an insurance plan. If he gets in there’s another three years of mild centre-left government; if he doesn’t then a genuine Left government incorporating the Greens and the Maori Party is that much easier to form.

For National, on the other hand, a NZ First presence in the next parliament now almost certainly means three more years in the wilderness. In one reckless spin of the dice, John Key may well have handed Labour its historic fourth term and assured the end of his own political career.

92 comments on “Roy Morgan has Winston on 5%”

  1. Andrew Bannister 1

    Although if Key is going to be consistent, it should be assumed he will change his mind. (capcha – “or, liberte”)

  2. Go The Right 2

    Good to see the Winston vote going from Labour to Winston and National gaining. When it comes to the polling day after all the enquiries have come out with the Facts John Keys decision will be seen as Masterful.
    Looks definitely like a Centre Right Government with the Maori Party supporting on Confidence because we all know they will get more than 4 seats.

    They arent to keen on Labour at the moment to which is good for the Country.

  3. Matthew Pilott 3

    Rob, what concessions would you expect from Key for the MPs support? Given your talk about a lesbian government, I’d assume you aren’t be too fond of darkies either. All that bigotry generally goes hand in hand. At what point would you say Key is giving too much to those brown folk, and that they should be grateful for what they’ve got?

  4. Tim Ellis 4

    That is an interesting result, Tane. It does seem to be out of step with the NZ First trend of other polls recently. In the meantime I wouldn’t put too much credence in it, but it will be very interesting to see if the next few polls confirm the trend or if it’s just a bit of noise.

  5. insider 5

    So a vote for winston is a vote for labour…Labour First in all senses. Glad to see you guys have no morals about who you get into bed with.

  6. Well done to John Key for having integrity and not being that power hungry that he has to give up his morals. In saying that well done to Winston, say what you like about him, but he always survives.

  7. Tane 7

    Tim, you’re right. The next few polls will be interesting to watch.

    The Roy Morgan result does seem to resonate with what I’m hearing though. A few people have even told me they’re considering voting for Winston for the first time because of their objection to the way the media has covered it.

  8. higherstandard 8


    Hugging Winston to your breast…… hang your head in shame.

  9. r0b 9

    I would like to see Winston and NZF gone from parliament.

    But if he gets re-elected by 5% of the population then he has a mandate (in spite of his racism and his apparent funding skulduggery). I don’t like it, but democracy means putting up with things you don’t like – and I can’t see either Nat or Labour ruling out dealing with him.

    I don’t think this 5% is a blip, I think it’s the combined effects of “no such thing as bad publicity” and “a plague on both your houses”. I think all the attacks on Winston have achieved is to increase that chances that he’ll be back. Sigh.

  10. Rakaia George 10

    Scroll down to the bottom of that Roy Morgan link and have a look at what’s happened to the Government confidence rating…

    Captcha: Study place. Wow, maybe there’s something to this captcha business after all.

  11. Billy 11

    Farrar reckons Roy Morgan always over-estimates Winsome’s support.

  12. Billy 12

    I am sorry. It seems I am stupid. I have been unable to properly to link for about two weeks now:

  13. Tane 13


    Hugging Winston to your breast…… hang your head in shame.

    Um, wtf? The purpose was analyis of the poll, not my preferences, but I thought it was implicit in my post that I’d prefer for Winston to not make it and instead have some form of Labour/Maori/Green coalition.

    I wasn’t going to patronise you by spelling it out, but perhaps in future I should just to be on the safe side.

  14. Farrar reckons a lot of things. he reckoned english had the numbers, but then key switched his vote to brash.

    hs. tane isn’t endorsing peters he’s just talking about the ramificaions of this pol.

    i think peters will be out though, hopefully there won’t be too much wasted vote, which benefits National.

  15. r0b 15

    I am sorry. It seems I am stupid. I have been unable to properly to link for about two weeks now

    Billy – your broken links are all broken for the same reason – and extra ‘ character at the end. Try again, check for that extra ‘ and delete it…

  16. Billy 16

    Thank you, r0b.

  17. Wondering 18

    [Tane: You’re banned for being a troll and breaching policy. I had a look through your previous comments and they’re all abusive. You’ve never said anything constructive and are therefore of no value to this site. That makes it a life ban.]

  18. Daveski 19

    If this is the case, the Maori party become the King (or Queen) makers.

    I truly hope Winston is gone … not just so we get another Racing Minister who is not so self serving!

  19. Tim Ellis 20

    I am puzzled as to why the reported support for minor parties is so volatile. The poll of polls data from 08wire is excellent at giving what are probably quite accurate trends for all parties, including minor ones. It is true that Roy Morgan’s reporting of NZ First vote does seem to be more volatile than other polls.

    Tane, I wonder how self-selecting the sample of people saying they are planning to vote for Winston is. I wonder how many Labour voters would jump in to support him if, for example, Helen Clark moved to sack him following a condemning privileges committee report?

    The next few polls will tell. Helen Clark gets daily polling results from UMR, and no doubt knows where the support is from much more timely and in-depth sources than are available publicly. Likewise John Key for National.

  20. Scribe 21

    This poll was conducted from Sept 1-14. Owen Glenn’s damning evidence before the privileges committee was on September 9. Would be interesting to know what the results were for people polled on Sept 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14.

    If Key, as some predict, reneges on his pledge about NZ First/Winston and forming a government, he will lose my respect (not that he’d care about little ol’ me)

  21. Crank 23

    “John Key’s big gamble of ruling Winston Peters out of any future coalition may well turn out to be one of the stupidest plays in New Zealand’s political history.”

    It depends what price you put on power.

    If bending over for corruption is not too large a price then perhaps he may be stupid.

  22. higherstandard 24

    Scribe Ditto – although I have vanishingly small respect for most politicians.

  23. randal 25

    Tane…good job. its obvious that the right dont tolerate anyone who opposes their views on their blogs but the left is much more tolerant but all the right wing trolls can do is pile on the abuse. I think that says something about their mindset and their attitude to life in general. Frightened people whose only response to the world is bullying and abuse.

  24. higherstandard 26

    Good Lord and here’s me thinking Randal was of the “left” persuasion.

  25. Tane 27

    Don’t kid yourself that John ruled out Winston over principle. It was a calculated gamble that he could bring down Winston and tar Labour with him in the process.

  26. Crank 28


    The only reason Labour get tarred is because they are supporting a man who is quite obviously a xenophobic liar.

    If you’re not againt that you’re for it.

  27. “Given your talk about a lesbian government, I’d assume you aren’t be too fond of darkies either.”

    A little simplistic perhaps ? Surely traditional Maori culture isn’t particularly feminist friendly so someone who might be “pro-darkie” might be anti-feminist ?

  28. higherstandard 30

    Agreed Tane but regardless to get into bed with him after the election would be an untenable position for Key and National.

    Crank, Winston is not xenophobic he’s merely a political manipulator of the most odious kind.

  29. Scribe 31


    Don’t kid yourself that Helen is keeping Winston over principle. It was a calculated gamble that she could keep Winston on side and try to cling to power, no matter the moral bankruptcy.

  30. BeShakey 32

    “…be interesting to know what the results were for people polled on Sept 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14.”

    The numbers would be too small to make any reasonable conclusions. You’ll have to wait for the next series of polls.

    Personally, I’d like to see WP/NZF gone. But if the varied inquiries don’t remove him, and the people vote him back, I struggle to see a reason to remove him, even though I don’t like him, and disagree with many of his headline policies.

  31. “Don’t kid yourself that John ruled out Winston over principle.”

    [raises eyebrows] Really ? You are forgetting that Helen/Michael/Winston are from a very different generation than Key. The former are heading into retirement while John Key has plenty of time on his side.

    The next three years are going to be a nightmare economically; if Labour wins not only will they have to take drastic (and painful) action to fix the problems, they will get the (deserved) blame for causing them. Key could wait three years, take power, be a four term prime minister and still be younger than Cullen is now. He would end up with a place in history to go alongside his $50 million.

  32. Tane 34

    Hs, agreed.

    Scribe, the final confidence vote has passed, as has the ETS. There’s no reason to hold onto him for power’s sake. Though I suspect Clark sees the long-term benefits of maintaining cordial relations with someone whose numbers she might need to form a government after the election.

    Crank, Winston was a xenophobe and a liar back in 2005. It didn’t stop National from getting down on their hands and knees and begging him to give them the numbers they needed to form a government. Politics is the art of the possible, and sometimes to make things possible you need to work with people you don’t particularly like. You can cast a moral judgement over that if you like, but all you’re doing is showing your naivety.

  33. I wish Helen Clark would get rid of Peters – for Labour’s sake. I reckon that this business has cost Labour at least a couple of percent. Why we have this corrosive, poisonous, cancerous politician shackled to our Government only Helen Clark knows.

    For the fourth election in a row, Labour’s Old Guard are keeping the Greens from Government. Maybe they’ll get in by 2014?

    (assuming that National doesn’t act rashly, and Labour takes at least 3 years to rebuild into a credible looking outfit – Goff, Cunliffe etc are qualified to run a Government, but don’t have the gravitas yet.)

  34. Pascal's bookie 36

    “Winston is not xenophobic he’s merely a political manipulator of the most odious kind.”

    Agreed. Same with Brash on the IWI/KIWI, mainstream, and the spitting in the streets stuff…

  35. gobsmacked 37

    As ever with polls, individual results may be questionable, but the overall trend is significant.

    Earlier in the year Labour’s poll rating was heading for 30% or below. Words like “freefall” and “meltdown” were used, mostly by predictable axe-grinders, but the numbers certainly looked bad. In the occasional poll where Labour picked up, often it was the Greens that suffered.

    But now there is a clear trend that shows both Labour’s core vote holding solid in the mid-30’s, and the Greens over the 5% threshold. Of course 35 + 5 is not going to be enough on election day, but for both parties it’s a good base for a campaign contest. There’s not much talk of a “landslide” these days.

    If the Winston-obsessed commentators pay less attention to blog babble (highly unrepresentative of real public opinion) and more to the other 99.9% of voters, they might ponder the fact that Rodney Hide is getting more positive publicity than he’s ever had before … and ACT’s poll ratings barely move.

    And as a left voter, I’d be quite happy to see National do a deal with the Maori Party. I can only assume that the National supporters who favour this option are either ashamed of Orewa (unlikely, but good on ya) or they are just determined not to find out what the Maori Party actually want (hint: it’s not a pat on the head).

    Tories for Tino Rangatiratanga! This I gotta see …

  36. Crank 38

    If the enquiries don’t get him it will be because of technicalities. It is obvious that he is a cheating, lying hypocrate and I am sure that 5% backing of the senile and piss soaked does not excuse that.

  37. Tane 39

    Bryan, if Key loses this election English will roll him. Even if he wins he’s on shaky ground. The wheels are already in motion.

  38. “Crank, Winston was a xenophobe and a liar back in 2005. It didn’t stop National from getting down on their hands and knees and begging him to give them the numbers they needed to form a government.”

    And neither did it stop Labour.

    (and before I have to correct someone yet again – Labour /did/ have a choice of support arrangements)

  39. Tane 41

    George, I wish you’d give me the benefit of the doubt sometimes. I was devastated when I heard Labour had forsaken the Greens for UF and NZF. I voted Green, ffs.

    My point is sometimes you have to work with people you don’t like in order to get your policy agenda through, and that people who deny this are being naive in the extreme.

  40. Crank 42

    “Bryan, if Key loses this election English will roll him. Even if he wins he’s on shaky ground. The wheels are already in motion.”

    Tane, You are incredibly plugged in to the “supposed” tory knife sharpeners for a leftie. And to think they trusted you with that information.

  41. Tane 43

    I have my sources Crank. They vary in their reliability and their closeness to the action, but they’re all saying the same thing.

  42. Tane: “Crank, Winston was a xenophobe and a liar back in 2005.”

    Yes, and in 1995 and in 1985, but now he has lied to the Prime Minister, to Parliament and is a being investigated by the police and the SFO. He is damaged goods.

  43. Tane: surely it is better to be the Deputy PM & Finance Minister than Leader of the Opposition ?

  44. Aj 46

    If Key’s word stands between the Nats and being government then Key will be voted out of leadership quicker than you can say ‘user charges’

  45. r0b 47

    I’ll make you a bet Bryan. If the Nats need Winston to form the next government they’ll be in bed with him before you can turn down the sheets. $50 to the charity of choice says the Nats will not pass up the chance to rule if they have to work with Winston to get it. Deal?

  46. Tane:

    Key wont lose the election, so there will be no rolling of anybody, except Helen. I’m sure Labour will then make the mistake of going further to the left.

  47. monkey-boy 49

    What a wonderful thing it would be foir the country if Winston Peters were once again, be the pivot upon which our who government rests.

  48. Tane 50

    Tane: surely it is better to be the Deputy PM & Finance Minister than Leader of the Opposition ?

    I’m confused. I take it you’re referring to English?

  49. rOb: I already have $20 on Labour to WIN the election ( showing my disrespect for the wisdom of the NZ electorate).

  50. Chris 52

    I’ve just finished watching a talk by winston at otago. My god that man talks some crap! No way I would ever vote for him, his ideas on economics are way out of line. He is the ultimate sales person though. If someone asks him for something he’ll say he can deliver. He even proposed regulating credit card interest rates, as if NZ isn’t getting squeezed enough for credit!

  51. r0b 53

    I’ve just finished watching a talk by winston at otago

    Otago uni? I’m interested – what sort of reception did W get from the audience (students?)?

  52. John Dalley 54

    Here is a prediction for the election.
    Natioanl will get the most votes but not sufficient to govern on their own.
    John Key will stick to his guns (Yeh Right) and not do a deal with NZ First who will hold the balance of power.
    The day after John Key refuses to work with Winnie he is rolled by Bill English

  53. Daveski 55

    Gobsmacked – couldn’t agree more.

    I think it would be good to drag some of the elements of the Nats into the 20th century (not a typo!).

    There is a potential synergy – and I’m not extracted the urine either. The emerging “brown” economy is often overlooked and the business focus of Nat is a natural partner for the Maori party.

    That will require a significant shift in perceptions from both sides of the table but it could be done.

    Conversely, the Labour/left fixation on benefits and handouts risks looking paternalistic at best.

    Further, Labour has taken the Maori vote for granted and while the Nats didn’t do themselves any favour with iwi/kiwi, neither did Labour with their flip flop on the foreshore.

  54. Tane (reply to upthread). I’m not doubting you or your sincerity. I just hate the constant attacks on National for things that Labour are also guilty of (although not always to the same degree)

    I understand your point. But I sincerely think that Dunne/Peters was detrimental to their policy agenda (although Green/Maori would have had other drawbacks, and other policy conflicts), and is looking like it might continue to hamper their policy agenda in 08-11.

    If it was the past, or about to become the past I could breathe a sigh of relief and set it aside. But by holding on to this lying, game playing, hate stirring rodent, Helen Clark is dragging him in to my future. And that is bound to make me upset.

  55. Positive and ambitious 57

    I’ve never voted NZ First, but I’m seriously considering it now as it looks like a vote for Winston is a sure fire way to make sure Key never gets to write the PM line in his CV. This poll shows I’m not alone. Brilliant work Mr. Key!

  56. Chris 58

    Not bad, but not exactly enthusiastic either. But he got an audience which is enough, and I’m sure some people bought some of the crap he was spouting, but my god it was too much for me!

    He is the consummate politican i guess…

  57. Pat 59

    I think it is clear that Helen Clark has no intention to sack Winston before the election. Easy to sack him afterwards if NZF has given you the crucial numbers. After all, he will only be a list MP.

    Look out Chris Hipkins – you are going to get the big “step aside” order so that Ron Mark has a clear shot at Rimutaka.

  58. gobsmacked 60


    That Ron Mark story is false. But I’m sure you already know that.

    On the other hand, Rodney Hide’s worries in Epsom are real.

  59. Bryan Spondre “The next three years are going to be a nightmare economically; if Labour wins not only will they have to take drastic (and painful) action to fix the problems, they will get the (deserved) blame for causing them.”

    Excuse me?

    The problem has been caused by National party style deregulation in America, and the World Bank has said New Zealand is well placed economically to ride out the storm.

    Are you lying or just wrong? (either way a correction is probably in order)

  60. Monty 62

    In all other polls the self-serving corrupt Prick that we all Know as Winnie First is polling between 1.6% and 2.5%. No one realistically believes that he will be back after the election. in 1999 when the scandal was underpants 2.5 years before the election he only got back in by 64 votes and 4.6%. This corruption affects him (and Clark ) directly, and is right before the elction. I do hope that he again gets 4.6% – all off Labour’s support base

    But I do also think at 96% of voting new Zealanders are not so bloody stupid to return this parasite back to Parliament. (I do wonder about the other 4% who will try and retunr him.

    So the impact – well National will pick up 50% of winnie wasted voted, add in Act on 3% and Prissy Peter as minister of Racing and there National has over 50%. Negotiate witht he Maori Party who gets on very well with John Key and Labour are going to earn a well deseerved and extremely long rest in the opposition benches.

  61. ghostwhowalks 63

    Spondre forgets Key style borrowing for ‘infrastructure’ was tried in Iceland over the last 8 years.
    Its been a disaster, official RB interest rates start at 15%. if it wasnt for some major scandanavian banks helping out it would have been much much worse.
    Its Key wjo will wreck the economy with his dated ideas, in the same way Muldoon did with his 40s and 50s ideas carried over into the 80s.
    The trouble with national is that they think they know all about the economy so wont listen to competent advice. And with a small kitchen cabinet style of policy making from Key and his cohorts it will be Muldoonism without the self satisfied smirk

  62. gobsmacked 64


    Out of interest, as a National voter, which Maori Party policies would you be prepared to see John Key accept as the price of a deal? Boosting “race-based funding” is a given (sorry Don), as is compulsory Te Reo. What else?

    I’m afraid “gets on well” won’t do it. Pop over to their website sometime. How many Nats admire Cuba?

  63. lprent 65

    I’m with rOb’s comment..

    But if he gets re-elected by 5% of the population then he has a mandate (in spite of his racism and his apparent funding skulduggery). I don’t like it, but democracy means putting up with things you don’t like – and I can’t see either Nat or Labour ruling out dealing with him.

    Essentially the electorate votes the parliamentarians, not the politicians. If some of them are silly enough to vote NZF into parliament, then that is what the politicians have to deal with.

    Unfortunately that is what I think is likely to happen. This type of concerted attack is exactly what NZF’s supporters thrive on. This current kerfuffle is probably going to make sure that Winston & NZF get enough votes. If that happens and no coalition can get in without support from NZF, what do you expect the politicians to do – keep having elections?

    Key’s political naivety and lack of experience is showing…

  64. Macro 66

    “Farrar reckons Roy Morgan always over-estimates Winsome’s support.”

    I’ve got some bad news for DPF as well. These polls always over estimate the vote for the right as well! The Morgan poll was the most accurate in the 2005 election missing the final out come by about 2% points to the right. As it was in the previous one as well. The fact is these are phone based and despite the pollsters best efforts to avoid the resulting bias, lots of voters now are not reachable by land line. Who has land lines? Well you all know the answer.

    There is no doubt that for a lot of people who have longer political memories than so called “investigative journalists” of todays media, that their sympathies towards Winston Peters have been raised by the recent scrum. They appreciate the Gold Card, the $6 doctors fee for their young grandchildren, the possibility of a universal student allowance for their children and grandchildren, etc. He has done a competent job as Foreign Minister. I was rather apprehensive when he took up the reins from one of the most able Foreign Affairs Ministers we have ever had in recent times Phil Goff. He has been in the past an extremely capable Minister or Maori Affairs (As a National MP) and many of the policies he initiated are still in place today. Those who take more than an interest in the passing sound bite of political comment today appreciate that Winston Peters has done a lot for the people of NZ. Far more than John Keys or Rodney Hide.

    Having said that I shall not be voting for NZ First. I never have, and I doubt that I ever will – but I appreciate where those who do are coming from.

  65. Pascal's bookie 67

    Essentially the electorate votes the parliamentarians, not the politicians. If some of them are silly enough to vote NZF into parliament, then that is what the politicians have to deal with.

    Exactly. And after that is where it starts to get interesting.

    Under MMP we get party votes. IMO this is good thing over and beyond the proportionality issue, in that it brings the parties explicitly inside the system. Under FPP, in theory, parties needn’t exist, every MP was there to represent an electorate. In practice of course party machines take over and ranking MP’s get safe seats etc and gerrymandering becomes the order of the day. Voters end up voting for parties rather than candidates, with their intentions having effect only if they are in a marginal seat. It was a pig of a system.

    Under MMP however, with the parties being legitimised by the voting process each party has their own constituency separate from the geographical electorates. Each party has a duty to that party vote constituency to try and get as much of their policy through as they can. If National gets more votes than Labour, and the electorate has given WP the balance of power, then in this view, Key would normally have a duty to National party voters to make a deal if one is the offing.

    He’s stuffed that up though by explicitly ruling such a deal out, and gaining the party votes of those who, for their own good reasons, don’t like WP and will vote to keep him out of government. This comes to the cost of those National Party voters who care more about policy differences and want Labour out for reasons that go beyond personalities.

    It also creates a conflict between those voters that are voting National to keep Winnie out, and those that are voting National to get rid of Helen. There will be a lot of overlap there, but there are many Nat voters whose dislike of Clark exceeds their dislike of the socially conservative Peters. He will have to slap them in the face and let Labour back in, or most likely, eat crow, make the deal with WP and have all his rhetoric thrown in his face from day one on the govt benches. There will not be a media honeymoon.

    He’s creating quite a pickle for himself if Winnie gets back in.

    But all that be speculatin’ an’ dreams. The voting bit happens first, and we’re as likely to end up with an ‘LPG plus Maori party on c&f’.

    With Winston Key Rodney and Dunne crying over might’ve beens.

  66. Jum 68

    – Labour Supporters –

    Walking and Cycling Across Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour Bridge
    (You can do these things over the Manukau!)

    The Get Across Campaign ( ) is organising a rally at 2.00p.m. Sunday 21st September under the Auckland City end of the bridge.

    All Labour people have a chance to show your support for the PM and Labour by turning up. Enjoy.

  67. ak 69

    Golly….how about them ole Warriors eh? Looks like the boys from the backstreets might be ready for their time in the sun….nice to see Hels there, a good omen and so very fitting as to how things are panning out politically….Winnie up to his well-deserved 5% and the slippery serpent still pissing in the wind, ah happy days, have a good weekend youngsters, God bless you all and strengthen your arms.

  68. John 70

    I will put $5 on Helen Clark sacking Winston in the next week.
    Helen will come out most indignant over the deceit from her Minister and will try and redeem her poor judgement by claiming fair process
    any takers?

    No matter what she attempts, the Clark/Peters axis will stick

  69. John 71

    Hey Jum. Good to see you’re back online.

    Have you had any more thoughts about your claiming the Ford advertisement for the Ute was set up by the Business Roundtable because the man in the ad says “Should have got a blue one’?

    Yunno, aluminium foil is expensive at the moment but your make shift hats, to ward off the black helicopters should be tax deductible

  70. T-Rex 72

    Pre-emptive rebuttal to any accusations of off-topic thread-jack: It’s not off topic, it’s about what motivates people in voting 🙂

    Interesting article here (published in science) about the use of fear in promoting conservative policy options. Painfully obvious why National generally push such a negative line, but not nearly so bad as the situation in the US.

  71. Jared 73

    Thats strange Tane, lets just say I have my sources as well, and English has not a chance. Most in the party do not trust English’s leadership style after his failed attempt in 2002.

  72. Jared 74

    “Spondre forgets Key style borrowing for ‘infrastructure’ was tried in Iceland over the last 8 years.
    Its been a disaster, official RB interest rates start at 15%. if it wasnt for some major scandanavian banks helping out it would have been much much worse.
    Its Key wjo will wreck the economy with his dated ideas, in the same way Muldoon did with his 40s and 50s ideas carried over into the 80s.
    The trouble with national is that they think they know all about the economy so wont listen to competent advice. And with a small kitchen cabinet style of policy making from Key and his cohorts it will be Muldoonism without the self satisfied smirk”

    What exactly have you been smoking? Comparing a country with a 1/10th the population and 1/10th the GDP and expecting similar economic conditions? If anything, Key will bring a fresh vision to government, one thats stagnant with career politicians looking out for their own pay check than the good of the country.

  73. DeeDub 75

    Bryan Spondre:

    “He would end up with a place in history to go alongside his $50 million.”

    Yep, it certainly does look like Key is just ticking another career box. He comes across as a vain, political dilettante just like Don Bash did. The electorate won’t be fooled, and once everyone sees him in…. ahem ‘action’ in a live debate they will realise what a shallow, feckless man he is. He’s obfuscating on thin ice methinks.

  74. Go The Right 76

    Another Beautiful sunny day another great Poll for the Nats. Showing the trend that Labour is dipping again and the Winston Saga is no doubt hurting them. Nats now 18 points ahead and everything is looking rosy or should I say a sea of Blue

  75. Adolf Fiinkensein 77

    Oh well, that didn’t last long. Fairfax has him back where he belongs. 3% and out.

    [lprent: I let this comment by “Fair” (hardly) “Facts” (nope fails there as well) “Media” (I suspect you’re technically and mathematically illiterate as well) through so I could comment on its inherent stupidity below. ]

  76. randal 78

    the pussy cat press is rigging the polls again I see. I dont mind. the longer they delude themselves the bigger surprise they will get when the people speAK.

  77. coge 79

    Go the right, yes it is hardly unexpected that the long term established decline has continued for Labour. This trend suggests it will be worse by election day, 30 or 32 %. This is a govt that has lost it’s way & has disconnected itself from the thinking middle ground.

  78. Ianmac 80

    Hope this is still on the thread:
    Talking about credibility, think about how likely is this? Owen phones Peters.
    Peters asks for $100,000.
    Owen says OK. Send me Henry’s details.
    Minutes later details are sent.
    Are you able to believe that in the space of about 6 minutes a successful very wealthy business man would give this sort of money, UNLESS Owen is lying and the deal had already been struck! Might help open-minded folk to think about this.

  79. coge 81

    Ianmac, so you are suggesting that Labour further dump on their biggest individual donor? The disconnection continues.

  80. Ianmac 82

    Coge “Ianmac, so you are suggesting that Labour further dump on their biggest individual donor? The disconnection continues.”
    This has nothing to do with Labour dumping on anyone. It is a response to the probability expressed by some, that Peters/Henry lied based on the coincidence of phone/e-mail etc. Why not look at that “compelling evidence”?

  81. lprent 83

    I take very little credence of polls because they’re so inaccurate. But the trend series is interesting. It is a pity that some people commenting here have no real understanding. So I will spell it out for the illiterates.

    Here are the last three months of polls for Fairfax’s polls.

    RNZ report
    Curiablog Aug 2008
    Curiablog Sept 2008

    Here is the change series for some of the parties.

    Lab +5 +0 -1
    Nat -3 +3 -2
    NZF +1 -1 +0
    Grn -2 -1 +1

    Now does this tie up with either FFM’s comment or coge’s? Hardly!

    What it shows, as all of the polls are pretty much showing, is that the Winston Peters thing is making bugger all impact on the voters thinking. Bearing in mind the propounded error rate is about 3%, what this poll is showing is that nothing much is happening in political trends.

    I’d suggest that Fairfacts and coge really should take remedial training in how to read numbers.

    captcha: and checked
    how appropiate

  82. The latest Colmar poll has the election a landslide to national, there is no way Aunty Helen will pull back an 18 point margin.

    [lprent:: As an exercise go to curia blog and do the same change series. Want to take a bet that it shows the same trend – ie bugger all. After all of the huffing and puffing in the past weeks, it seems like the NZF donations aren’t making too much impact on any party. ]

  83. randal 85

    none of these polls are worth jack. it is already obvious by the way the meedia is treating the government that they are rigging the news and it seems the polls. National is going to get thefright of its life when they get their bums kicked on nov 8th.

  84. Draco T Bastard 86

    none of these polls are worth jack.

    Don’t think I’d go quite that far…

    Ok, yes I would 🙂

  85. bill brown 87

    Anyone notice that the “graph” on the front page of the Dom is not of the FF poll inside (which shows a drop to National) but of a “combined FF and Colmar” which doesn’t?

  86. Randal: Please provide evidence that the media is rigging the news?

    The feel that I’m getting is the election wont be a landslide to National, but they will win.

  87. bill brown 89

    Interesting article polling at Newswire (pointed out by Trotter)

  88. randal 90

    brett dale…refer to fran mouldy every night on teevee 1 and look back over the past months front pages of the dompost to see how many times winnie was going to be sacked the next day but never was. hahahahahaha

  89. Ianmac 91

    bill brown :”Interesting article polling at Newswire (pointed out by Trotter)
    Fascinating stuff. Makes a mockery of polls but the deniers will no doubt say its only in Wellington and they…etc etc.

  90. How is that evidence that the media is rigging the news?

    The media has always had a go at Winston no matter what party he supports, they just don’t like him.

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    A new education-to-employment brokerage service to strengthen connections between local employers and schools. Funding for more trades focused ‘speed-dating’ events to connect schools with employers. Promotional campaign to raise profile of vocational education. The Government is taking action to increase the number of young people taking up vocational education and ...
    6 hours ago
  • Corrections Amendment Bill passes third reading
    A Bill to improve prison security and ensure the fair, safe, and humane treatment of people in prison while upholding public safety has passed its third reading. Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says the Corrections Amendment Bill makes a number of changes to ensure the Corrections Act 2004 is fit for ...
    20 hours ago
  • Ngāi Tahu CEO appointed to NZ-China Council
    Minister for Māori Development, Nanaia Mahuta, has selected Arihia Bennett MNZM, Chief Executive Officer of Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, as the Te Puni Kōkiri appointed representative on the New Zealand-China Council. The New Zealand-China Council (the Council) was established in 2012 as a New Zealand led and funded organisation ...
    23 hours ago
  • Southern Response claims move to EQC
    Responsibility for processing the small number of Southern Response claims still to be settled will be transferred to EQC by the end of the year. “As claim numbers reduce, it no longer makes sense for the Crown to have two organisations processing the remaining Canterbury claims,” Grant Robertson says. “Since ...
    1 day ago
  • Bowel screening starts in Whanganui
    Health Minister David Clark is encouraging Whanganui residents to take up the opportunity for free bowel screening, which can detect cancer early when it’s easier to treat.   Over the next two years 12,000 Whanganui locals, aged 60 to 74 will be invited to participate in the National Bowel Screening ...
    1 day ago
  • Pacific Peoples Minister to attend Our Ocean Conference in Norway
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, heads to Oslo today to represent New Zealand at the sixth Our Ocean Conference, which is being hosted by the Norwegian Government from the 23-24 October. “The Our Ocean Conference mobilises real action on issues like marine plastic pollution and the impacts of ...
    2 days ago
  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    2 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures Conference: Connection...
    Session 4: Pacific Connectivity – Youth, Media and New Opportunities   Kia ora tatou katoa and Warm Pacific greetings to one and all. Representatives of Tainui, the local people of the land, or manawhenua – the indigenous peoples of this area – have welcomed you this morning in accordance with ...
    5 days ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    5 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    5 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    5 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    5 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    5 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    5 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    5 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    6 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    6 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    6 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    6 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    6 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    6 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    7 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    7 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    1 week ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    1 week ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    1 week ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    1 week ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    1 week ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    1 week ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    1 week ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
    1 week ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
    1 week ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
    1 week ago