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Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 6:25 pm, October 26th, 2007 - 36 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

graph clearer

There’s a new Roy Morgan out today. It covers the date range 1-14 October 2007.

Gary Morgan said of the result:

As was suggested in the previous New Zealand Morgan Poll, National Leader John Key’s recent policy gaffes have handed Helen Clark and her Labour Government a golden opportunity to make up some ground.

In the first fortnight of October, Labour has closed the gap from 15.5% to 6.5% — the closest it has been since early February.

36 comments on “Roy Morgan ”

  1. Robert Owen 1

    Sorry ,post here instead

    General election 2005 Lab 41.1 % Green 5.3% Total 46.4%
    Latest Poll Lab 39.0% Green 7.5% Total 46.5%

    So the left has increased their share of the vote since the Election

  2. Sam Dixon 2

    and so why are we cionstantly been given this crap about National being in the driver’s seat?

    looks to me like they’ve got a harder task ahead of them if they are to govern.

    realy the media needs to realise FPP is gone and talk in terms of feasible coalitions – left vs right

  3. Robert Owen 3

    Beats me
    If the Nats were on 45% Lab Party was down to 30% and the Greens up to say15%

    The Headlines would be “Nats unbeatable lead over Labour Key to be next PM”
    Ignoring fact Helen would still look likely to be the PM in 2008

    And can you imagine the gnashing of teeth over at Farrars ?

    The fact is we have a natural centre left majority in NZ.

    There is maybe, room for a large centre party here but not a far right one. Which is of course what the Nats are

  4. Tane 4

    I see NZPA’s reporting the poll as a lead for National.

    “It cements a trend in several recent polls of growing support for Labour despite National still holding a clear lead.”

    http://stuff.co.nz/4251544a10.html

  5. burt 5

    I’m picking that The Standard will be like Jordan’s Just Left and only post the Morgan polls that you like.

    So what are you guys picking, that thug, the one who voted for the anti smacking law, Mallard, do you think his little bit of biffo will go down well with Labour voters or will it be pure poll poison.

    I’m picking it will go down like a cup of cold sick.

  6. Benodic 6

    Burt, you sound angry. It’s not that bad brother. One bad poll’s not the end of the world so long as you’ve got policy to pull you through… oh, that’s right, shit, sorry dude.

  7. Robert Owen 7

    Evening Burt!
    So what are you guys picking, that thug, the one who voted for the anti smacking law, Mallard, do you think his little bit of biffo will go down well with Labour voters or will it be pure poll poison
    Ok I’ll bite
    Firstly I can not see that voting against hitting children has any similarities with thumping Tau Henare (well almost)
    And secondly it will make fuck all difference to the polls

    Apart from the fact That Helen have been given a fucking early xmas pressy , she needs to freshen up the front bench and suddenly bye
    Bye Trev David and Steve . Hello 3 empty Cab posts

    Three more years Burtie Boy Three more years

  8. ak 8

    (heh heh, nice one Ben!)

    And burt my man – didn’t your thugs all vote for that bill too? remember? the whipping, the borrows-bradford pash-up?

    “Pure poll poison”? Well burto, (nice alliteration by the way) it might have been, but the polls on TV1 and TV3 tonight tell a different story.

    You see burt, you and your wee cobbers have done such a good job of scaring everybody into thinking that Labour is a “cotton wool” “nanny state” government, that the public seems to actually welcome this refreshing bit of biffo!

    And thanks to that low-level racism that your mob keeps subtly peddling, plenty are happy that big brown Tau got the tap.

    So see what’s happening burt? Your’re doing Helen’s work for her!

    So do keep it up – especially the “tax cuts” chant, that’s gold burt!

    (how is cold sick by the way? – I prefer mine at room temperature)

  9. burt 9

    Robert Owen

    Firstly I can not see that voting against hitting children

    The smacking law was about removing the anomaly that there is no defense for adults hitting adults but there was for adults hitting children. It’s never OK – but it is OK to ask for help!

  10. Santa Claws 10

    Lol. I suppose Labour members have to grasp at any straw. As if re-arranging deck chairs on the titanic will make any difference next week. Same tired policies, basically the same tired faces with a sprinkling of new unionists to ‘improve’ things.

    I notice Helen is trashing Rodney Hide for not supporting the S59 amendment, so it seems fair game to raise the HYPOCRISY flag yet again. Its pretty obvious who is cancerous and corrosive these days.

    SC

  11. Policy Parrot 11

    Who cares if the media writes Labour off – it just gives its activists more incentive to get the vote out…

  12. Robert Owen 12

    The only incentive I need is a daily dose of kiwiblog

  13. ak 13

    Dose is the word talking of that pus-pit… notice how we DON’T MENTION THE WAR or the AUSTRALIAN ELECTION or THE LATEST MORGAN POLL lately?

  14. Robert Owen 14

    He also has stopped the Tax cut mantra since The reserve Bank statement

    They do seem to be getting a bit tetchy
    I think its slowly sinking in
    That they ain’t going yo win the next election

  15. burt 15

    Robert Owen

    Perhaps DPF is letting Dr. Cullen do the talking on tax cuts. Let me guess: Tax cuts when talked about by Labour are good and tax cuts when talked about by National are bad? Labour tax cuts don’t push up interest rates and National tax cuts do?

    see stuff: Warning doesn’t mean no tax cuts – Cullen

  16. Robert Owen 16

    This may be interesting: All polls taken just before last Election

    Election Result 41.1 5.3 = 46.4
    Morgan poll 38.5 7.5 = 46.0
    Herald Digipoll 44.6 4.6 = 49.2
    1 News/Colmar 38.0 5.0 = 43.0
    3 News/TNS 40.5 6.9 = 47.4
    Fairfax/Neilson 37.0 6.0 = 43.0
    Latest Morgan 39.0 7.5 = 46.5

    Seems to me that Morgan and TNS have it susssed
    Labour and Green Share between 46 and 47% of the vote
    When one goes down the other goes up

  17. r0b 17

    “Seems to me that Morgan and TNS have it susssed
    Labour and Green Share between 46 and 47% of the vote”

    The Left could still lose the next election – if the Right succeed in getting it framed as “sad tired Labour government, time for a change” and can avoid discussing policy.

    It will be a different story if the focus goes on to policy and the likely consequences of a National government (privatisation, increased charges, benefit cuts, aggressive employment legislation, “market rents”, no increases in minimum wage, no commitment to the environment, involvement in silly wars).

    We need to keep the focus on the issues and the policy.

  18. illuminatedtiger 18

    I trust this is more accurate than the Curia bullshit?

  19. Robert Owen 19

    illuminatedtiger
    Check it yourself
    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2005/3898/

    ps the capitcha for this is “foot orgy”

  20. Sam Dixon 20

    illumitiger – I don’t think Curia makes its polls public – its National’s internal polling

    I love the things capitcha throws up

  21. thonas 21

    to the Standard…
    Just sent you an email with a pretty poll graph
    Thomas

  22. thomas 22

    mind you I did just spell my name wrong…………

  23. all_your_base 23

    Cheers thomas. Have uploaded it. Link below.

    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/graph.jpg

  24. let’s face it folks, if Key carries on the way he’s been since leader, we’ll definitely be celebrating another Labour victory. the guy has consistently failed to improve, and now there’s a firm frame of him being indecisive and unprepared for leadership.

    certainly that won’t stop the msm from reporting him as the next PM, but then that’ll just help mobilize the left vote, and make the look on Key’s face all the better come election night. remember that line from 2005 election night, when the perplexed kid at Nat HQ, after enjoying all the grown-up’s prior merriment, suddenly caught drift of the mood shift as Lab overtook – “where have all the people gone mummy?” he said.

  25. Luke 25

    Looks like who ever ‘wins’ will need the Maori party to govern, unless NZF, United Future or ACT make a big recovery. This is certainly not impossible however NZF and UF are living in the shadow of the Labour govt so it is hard for them to get traction.
    A guess a positive if the nats won they would need the Maori party, which would certainly tone down their extreme policies and would certainly be better for the country. Interesting to note the Maori party vote in the house is most similar to the Greens, then Labour, and National a distant third (see Stuff for story).

  26. Rumpole 26

    Yes Helen has the election sewn up – everyone will believe Cullens promise of tax cuts, no one will notice Taitoes prosecution and will forget the pledge card theft, her lies, deceit and airbrushed image will fool everyone – Tui ad anyone?

  27. Luke 27

    Yes John has the election sewn up – everyone will believe Key’s promise
    of no return to the 90’s, no one will notice their bungled release of privatization plans, and forget what National did to the country in the
    90’s, their ‘fairer society’, cutting of pensions, selling of SOE’s, Key’s nice guy image will fool everyone – Tui ad anyone?

  28. tolpuddle 30

    thomas .. regarding your poll Graph
    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/graph.jpg
    Presumably the Orange line is Lab plus the Greens
    If this is so . The press seem to have the whole situation wrong and
    National have never been that much in front an are now behind in the polls ?

  29. thomas 31

    Yes I used Farrars graph http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2007/10/september_public_poll.html
    And added the red and green to get the combined orange.
    I don’t know how Farrar gets his figures, but if has used Colmar the Figures for National would be 3 or 4% higher then they should be for those Colmar entries

    I need to get a life

  30. thomas 32

    In the last 26 months the left block has been in front for twenty of them including the last poll

  31. Murray M 33

    Robert Owen, good to see you are still posting. I’m still waiting for an answer to my question posted on “Debate allegedly turns physical” 27/10/07 at 1.02pm
    To prove to me that you balls, I demand a fucking answer.

  32. Robert Owen 34

    Murray M
    To prove to me that you have the(?) balls, I demand a fucking answer.
    Well Murray M Its is obviously very important to you what with all the demanding and such
    But all I can say is Get fucked

  33. robinsod 35

    Don’t worry Rob – I’m pretty sure Muzza had had a few too many (he’s a belligerent drunk)

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