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Sanders leads Clinton

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 am, September 9th, 2015 - 44 comments
Categories: uk politics, us politics - Tags: ,

An interesting development in US politics:

Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by nine points – poll

Senator would receive backing of 41% of Democrats to Clinton’s 32%
Clinton holds shrinking lead in Iowa, NBC finds

Senator Bernie Sanders has opened a nine-point lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton among party supporters in New Hampshire, according to an NBC News/Marist Poll released on Sunday.

The survey showed that 41% of Democratic voters would back Sanders while 32% would cast a vote for Clinton if the poll were held today – and Vice-President Joe Biden were on the ballot.

Sanders in America, Corbyn in England. If they both win, does this mark a resurgence of the political left?

44 comments on “Sanders leads Clinton ”

  1. Ad 1

    What’s their polling against all voters?

    • Ad 1.1

      I did find it striking that The Guardian on August 14th reported Corbyn was 39% favored by UKIP voters, 38% favored by Labour voters, and 22% favored by Conservative voters, of all the Labour candidates presented. Those are strong numbers,

      Would like to hear some more recent polling on that.
      I mean if Joko Wododo can beat the baddest General around in Indonesia, there’s got to be hope, right?

      Sorry if I’m not sounding idealistic enough, but it’s harder to remain idealistic when the progressive side have been out of power this long (either here, or Australia, Canada, US, Britain, Germany etc etc).

  2. dukeofurl 2

    Goodness me. Sanders who is a Senator from neighbouring Vermont leads in New Hampshire. You would certainly hope so. Remind me how many delegates NH has ?

  3. save NZ 3

    +1 – I certainly hope so.
    Sanders in America, Corbyn in England. If they both win, does this mark a resurgence of the political left?

  4. amy 4

    Resurgence? No. If Corbyn suceeds in the UK, sadly it will be the death of Labour for a generation. The return to the looney left and their historically conspicuous lack of sucess.

    Sanders is not ‘left’ by NZ standards and is unlikely to prevail. One Swallow does not a summer make, as Aristotle so beautifully put it.

    • half crown 4.1

      Please explain, Is the need for a decent fair society for ALL, a return of the “looney left”

    • Anno1701 4.2

      “looney left ”

      soooooo tired

      get another meme this one is well past its use by date…

    • dukeofurl 4.3

      Thatcher was a surprise win for the Tory leadership back in 75, and she was from the ‘extreme tory right’

      If she can win leadership of her party and go on to be PM, its no problem for Corbyn.

      Thats where your argument falls down, Britain has had a party leader/PM from extreme side of one of the major parties.

    • North 4.4

      Looney ? Methinks you project Amy.

  5. Wayne 5

    If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination (pretty unlikely, but possible), then the next President of the United States will be President Trump, who may not be as bad as the cartoonish character that he is portrayed as.

    In fact he is the ideal Left candidate since the US would be significantly less engaged with the rest of the world, except on economic matters. You won’t have to put up with US imperialism.

    • Tracey 5.1

      chuckle

      Well, you know what many say in America Wayne? Anything is better than a woman! 😉

      • North 5.1.1

        Chuckle alright Tracey.

        Wayne…..you reckon a helpless narcissist like Trump with the power of the Presidency under his belt wouldn’t feel it his right indeed his obligation to ‘export’ his ‘master of the universe’ around the globe via whatever portfolio ?

        Fuck I’m not looking forward to a bought-and-paid-for First Lady Barbie Doll Plastique……who speechlessly adulates a ‘construct’ Kevin Commander-in-Chief. Have I got that right or is it a ‘Brad’ ? A ‘Chuck’ maybe ?

    • weizguy 5.2

      Sanders leads Trump in 4 out of 6 polls (an RCP average of 4.8 lead). The only poll which really looks good for Trump stinks to high heaven, with a claim that 25% of Blacks and 31% of Hispanics will vote for Donald “[Mexicans are] rapists” Trump.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

    • Molly 5.3

      “In fact he is the ideal Left candidate since the US would be significantly less engaged with the rest of the world, except on economic matters. You won’t have to put up with US imperialism.”
      Do you really believe that the industrial-military complex is dependent on a sympathetic president?

      That system has created a self-sustaining support system that survives regardless of president, and has black budgets to achieve the same.

    • Crashcart 5.4

      Is this the same Wayne who told us the TPP would be sorted by the end of the last round of talks so no point in talking about it?

      If so I think we can take your predictions with a grain of salt.

    • Clemgeopin 5.5

      Why do you say it is unlikely for Sanders to win the democratic nomination? Remember his surging support has been achieved ENTIRELY by grass roots support and with NIL donations from the moneyed mighty.

      If he then ‘unexpectedly’ becomes the president, I think most of the world will be glad and will let out a combined sigh of relief. But, it won’t mean he will be a push over by anyone. He has more sense, values, wisdom, integrity and courage than all of the Clintons, the Bushes and the Camerons put together.

      If USA elects Trumph, they will certainly deserve him.

      • Wayne 5.5.1

        I think Sanders can win in some minor states. I find it hard to believe that he can win major states. But then again who really expected that Trump would be still doing as well as he is.

        But if it is Sanders v Trump, I reckon Trump will win. He will have a much more dynamic campaign. In American eyes he will look much more like a winner than Sanders.

        But in either case established politics will have been turned on its head. Just as the selection of Corbyn as UK Labour leader has done.

        Not that I expect Corbyn to win a general election. That would require people currently voting Conservative to switch to Corbyn. That seems highly unlikely. Nevertheless someone must have done the electoral mathematics on how Corbyn can win. Presumably a big shift from the Liberals, the Greens and UKIP, all to Labour, could do it. On the basis, of course, that Corbyn has much more electoral appeal than Millibrand.

        • Clemgeopin 5.5.1.1

          Good points. I agree.

          I do so wish that both Sanders and Corbyn will win, and that people all over the world will get enlightened and take the initiative and the power back from the dark and powerful moneyed selfish ‘I, I, I, me, me, me class’ everywhere.

          ….Ushering in a new revolution to build a fairer, wiser and peaceful future world, not just for some, but for all.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.5.1.2

          But in either case established politics will have been turned on its head.

          Ah, yes, the fear of the Statu Quo Party – that things will change and they won’t know WTF they’re doing.

        • nzsage 5.5.1.3

          I believe the major area where Corbyn could pick up votes is by inspiring those that failed to vote in the last UK election. Almost a third of eligible voters were a no show. http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

          Get a large chunk of those voters onside and you are well on the way to power in Westminster.

          • vaughan little 5.5.1.3.1

            minor point: from their point of view, nonvoters didn’t fail to vote, they succeeded to not vote. if you know what i mean.

    • Lanthanide 5.6

      Trump is not going to win the nomination.

    • Wonderpup 5.7

      This was precisely the rhetoric used before the election of George Bush the Second. Then the world happened, and isolation proved itself untenable.

  6. AmaKiwi 6

    The mood of the times has changed.

    Established politicians and institutions are no longer revered and respected. They are rejected as corrupt, useless, inept. Distaste for previously respected leaders and institutions is the norm during tough economic times.

    I expect similar “surprising upsets” in our coming elections. Many incumbents will be trashed out of office by newcomers and political unknowns. Our MSM talking heads won’t understand because they don’t study the ebb and flow of history.

    Micky Savage’s first Labour government was a product of a social mood change similar to what is happening now.

    If you want to understand the present, study previous eras of revolution. Why did they happen? What were the results?

  7. shorts 7

    Slight aside:

    For those like myself who find US political processes hard to grasp (understatement) I found this Dan Carlin podcast really interesting and useful about the primaries: “Trumping the Playbook” http://www.dancarlin.com

  8. Lanthanide 8

    Sanders isn’t going to win the nomination.

  9. happynz 9

    . I find it hard to believe that he can win major states. But then again who really expected that Trump would be still doing as well as he is.

    D’ya reckon California and New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois are not “major” states? Have you knowledge of the demographics have changed over the past decade? Are you even slightly aware how the electoral system works in the US? Let me give you a hint – 270 electoral votes are needed. A cursory glance at voting patterns would show that the Democrats will take the West Coast, New England, the Mid-Atlantic states, and the Rust Belt states of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Western states Colorado and New Mexico look to be in the win column for the Ds as well. Florida, with its huge Latino population, doesn’t look likely to swing to a Trump candidacy.

    Do bit of research, Wayne. Your prognistications are due for a rethink.

    • Wayne 9.1

      happynz

      I am pretty well researched on US electoral mathematics.

      But the whole point of insurgency candidates is that they upset the usual political calculations, just as AmaKiwi notes.

      For instance I do not find it the least surprising that 25% of Black voters might vote Trump. It still means that 75% will vote Democrat. But not all black people are in dire circumstances. The whole of HipHop seems to be in love with ostentatious displays of wealth, something that Trump seems also to be inordinately proud about. It is something that traditionally had no appeal in NZ, but it is always a feature of the US social scene.

      And maybe NZ attitudes to wealth have shifted as well. In the past wealthy NZ families took care to limit the public display of wealth. But John Key has made a big thing about his Parnell home and is very happy to own a holiday home in Hawaii. Large numbers of New Zealanders seem quite relaxed about that – to use a favorite Key saying.

      • happynz 9.1.1

        For instance I do not find it the least surprising that 25% of Black voters might vote Trump.

        …and pigs might grow wings and fly…

        But not all black people are in dire circumstances. The whole of HipHop seems to be in love with ostentatious displays of wealth, something that Trump seems also to be inordinately proud about. It is something that traditionally had no appeal in NZ, but it is always a feature of the US social scene

        Good grief, your analysis is excruciatingly facile. Your weird connection of financially well-established black people and hip hop shows your shallow familiarity with a large portion of the American populace.

      • North 9.1.2

        Wayne @ 9.1……you’re crack-up !

        The last two-thirds of your comment addresses inordinate ostentatiousness and you top the cup cake with the icing of John Key and ‘relaxed’.

        Relaxed Ostentatiousness ! Fucking brilliant ! Identified by Portentous Pomposity. Gold crack-up Wayne !

  10. joe90 10

    Not everybody loves the Donald.

    ¡Gabe! Ortíz
    ‏@TUSK81

    Watch and LOL: Trump and wife get booed at US Open

  11. KeepLeft 11

    Labour only lost cos the British voters were duped by the lying CONseratives! Which why the poms are getting behind Corbyn cos he’s an HONEST man who wants to talk rather than just drop bombs!

    And Sanders is beating Hilary cos everywhere people sick of the lies of RWNJs and the neo – CONsersatives!

  12. hoom 12

    Truly Exciting times when real Leftists get to talk in public.

    And what happens?
    People are flocking to the message because people do want proper Left policies not the mish mash ‘vaguely left’ of the loony Rightists that have been running the show for the last few decades.

  13. Vaughan Little 13

    the common thread between trump and sanders is that voters are sick to death of the same old shit. it’s heartening too that instead of switching off politics they’re backing candidates who they identify as Washington outsiders.

    the real worry is in Europe, where the long grind of inequality looks like it may metastasize into extremism. I’d call trump more of a shithead than an extremist. and I think he wouldn’t survive politically if he did try to launch real pogroms against latinos.

    • Phil 13.1

      Sanders is still well behind Clinton in the national polling average, so this idea that he’s seen as a rejection of ‘Washington Insiders’ is dubious, at best.
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

      As dukeofurl noted above, Sanders is the whitest of white, New England liberals, polling well in a white New England state. Interestingly, while NH might be a good barometer of Dem vs Rep sentiment nationally, it’s a really terrible barometer of Democrats. Put it this way; a Democrat in New Hampshire has about as much in common, politically, with a Democrat in South Carolina as a Republican in Utah does with a Republican in New York.

      Timing wise, the Democratic nomination schedule starts with…
      Feb 1: Iowa
      Feb 9: New Hampshire
      Feb 20: Nevada
      Feb 27: South Carolina
      Mar 1: “Super Tuesday” Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia.

      New Hampshire looks like the high-water mark for Sanders. I’m not sure about Nevada, but in South Carolina Clinton’s ahead of Sanders by roughly 50% (i.e. 75-25).

      With the superior campaign machine at her disposal, Clinton’s going to walk all over Sanders on March 1st and we’ll all be talking about her as the Democrat nominee from that point onward.

      • JanMeyer 13.1.1

        Nice analysis

        • North 13.1.1.1

          Mmmm……don’t have the knowledge to say otherwise and thanks Phil for a contribution which has an informed ring to it. What I ‘wish’ for is otherwise however. The swindlers, the bogus guardians and corrupters of democracy must be democratically despatched. It’s that or pitchforks. A frightening prospect.

      • vaughan little 13.1.2

        a socialist aint a liberal. except for fabians, but who in the US heard of them?

        • Phil 13.1.2.1

          Sanders can call himself whatever the fuck he wants; ‘socialist’, ‘liberal’, ‘martian’… doesn’t change the fact that his voting record is consistent with, by american terminology, the most ‘liberal’ democrat senators and he’s supported by voters that self-identify as ‘liberal’.

  14. adam 14

    Happy Birthday Bernie.

  15. millsy 15

    But Wayne is perfectly fine with a Tory government that is on track to pare back public spending and services to pre-war levels.

    By pre-war I mean pre Napoleonic Wars. Probably back to the Walpole era.

  16. I have waited my whole adult life for a trully Democratic Socialist Government in the
    UK ,and off course Aotearoa . Corbyn’s win in the UK Labour Party will galvanise the Left here.The result would be the same as what is happening in the UK a huge surge in membership of the NZ Labour . The fact is ,rightwingers like Hoskins are now scared stiff its up to us to make sure they start to shake with fear ,Its not before time ! .

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