web analytics

Specials tomorrow

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 am, October 6th, 2017 - 35 comments
Categories: election 2017, electoral commission - Tags: , , ,

According to the Electoral Commission “The target to release the Official Results of the 2017 General Election is 2pm on Saturday 7 October 2017.” A blogger at Cut Your Hair has crunched the numbers and sees only two plausible outcomes:

Realistic possibilities for Parliament post-specials (all two of them)

On the basis of past election results since 19992, there are only two likely scenarios for how the preliminary seat allocations in Parliament will change after special votes are counted:

Golriz Ghahraman (Green) is in. Nicola Willis (National) is out. This is what will happen if the special vote results are like what they’ve been most MMP elections in NZ. On this scenario, A Nat-NZF government would have 66/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 62/120.

Golriz Ghahraman (Green) and Angie Warren-Clark (Labour) are in. Nicola Willis and Maureen Pugh (both National) are out. This is what will happen if the special votes are like what they were like last election. On this scenario, a Nat-NZF government would have 65/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 63/120. [my emphasis]…

Read on for lots of crunchy spreadsheets.

So was this election most like “most MMP elections” (1 seat change) or most like last election (2 seats)?

There remains a (mathematically unlikely) possibility that this election is a whole new beast, that the rush of late enrollments contains a mini “youth quake” resulting in a 3 seat swing. Don’t pin your hopes on it!

Certain commentators have been trying to paint the left into a corner on the specials:

But it will ultimately be for nothing if the Labour/Greens block can’t pick up a couple more seats via special votes to legitimise their position above a one seat majority with New Zealand First, Dann said.

I suppose Dann regards the minority government of the last 3 years as illegitimate then? The truth is that whatever the outcome of the specials, winning confidence and supply votes in parliament is all that matters. Even if specials result in no changes, 61 gets it done.

35 comments on “Specials tomorrow ”

  1. One Anonymous Bloke 1

    If Corin Dann is going to insist on interviewing himself, he could at least buy himself a dictionary.

  2. Barfly 2

    “On the basis of past election results since 19992”

    not sure when reached 19992 🙂

    • Incognito 2.1

      It’s in a dystopian world called The Matrix where Blade Runner meets Minority Report – Discovery. Sylvester Stallone has a ‘starring’ role in it too 😉

  3. Pat 3

    thanks for posting this Anthony……only one day to wait to see if that late youth vote occured and the ‘somewhat unlikely’ exchange of seats happens……National with 34.5% of the specials seems entirely realistic to me.

    • Anne 3.1

      Anecdotal evidence suggest it did occur but it may not have been large enough to make much of a difference. If it produces two extra seats – one Labour and one Greens – I’ll be very happy, but you can’t rule out the possibility the youth meant to get off their backsides and enroll/vote but didn’t get there.

  4. millsy 4

    Labour needs scenario 2 to happen if there is any chance Labour-Green-NZF forming a government.

    So we shall see what happens. Then the clickbait and keyboard interviewing stops, well for now anyway,

    And try and remember what happened in 1996. That way, you won’t be disappointed, like I was back then. I remember that evening clear as day.

    • mickysavage 4.1

      I do as well. It was the day that I decided to get involved in politics again after Reogernomics had crushed my political activism.

      • Thinkerr 4.1.1

        Ditto for me. It was the day I realised words have different meanings when spoken by politicians (sometimes several), such as “Vote for me and change the government”.

  5. Karen 5

    Thanks for the reference to the Caleb Morgan Day’s analysis – love that stuff.

    My optimistic partner was trying to convince me there would be one more seat for the Greens and 2 for Labour, but now I have the evidence that this, as I thought, would be unlikely.

    Although I am not keen on Labour and the Greens having to work with NZF, I still think it will be much better than the alternative. There is some serious poverty in this country and some people are not going to survive another Nat led government.

  6. Carolyn_nth 6

    James Shaw said immediately after election night that it would only take a small increase in the GP vote to get another MP. He has repeated that in an article on RNZ today:

    Green Party leader James Shaw said in all but one election since 1999 his party has gained an extra Member of Parliament after those votes were counted.

    He was extremely confident they would do so again.

    “This time we actually only need 0.13 percent of the specials to get Golriz Ghahraman in and so I’m about 99 percent confident that that’s going to happen.

    “It’s actually quite likely that there will be a seat transferred from National to Labour as well.”

    • Bearded Git 6.1

      I worked it out on election night (not that I’m a nerd or anything) and it really is a tiny shift to get the Greens one more seat from National.

      Would Winston go with 62-58? I think so-Key has had similar numbers for 6 years.

      (BTW ACT’s one frat-boy should be added to the ‘orrible Nats of course)

      • Carolyn_nth 6.1.1

        Unless Labour-Green-NZF can get at least 63 (maybe 64) votes, I’d expect NZF to go with National. A 2 seat buffer is still pretty risky, especially when NZF could always vote with the Nats on specific issues.

  7. patricia bremner 7

    We all hope so.

  8. Cinny 8

    One more sleep woot woot !!!! 😀 Special day 😀 The day my vote is officially counted, that’s the only bugger about being on the unpublished roll, you don’t feel like your vote matters until the special results come in.

    Am expecting a large volume of the specials to come from tertiary students, judging from the rallies, as well as the ability for them to enroll and vote during the 2 weeks of advance voting.

    What a massive number of specials, 15% of all votes is huge, i wonder could this be the largest chunk of special votes NZ has ever had?

  9. ianmac 9

    One clever columnist reckoned the rush seen at Universities was not to support Labour, but to block Labour from instituting the free Tertiary fees. They would hate to see the oncoming students getting what they missed out on.
    Credible? Nah!

    • Craig H 9.1

      Maybe, but analysis of all the university polling booths was done, and is more left leaning than the general results. I did the same for Ara (formerly CPIT), and it showed the same trend.

    • Cinny 9.2

      ROFL !!!!!

      Bye bye Maureen Pugh

  10. ianmac 10

    If a couple of NZF mps jumped ship to National say next year, I wonder what would happen to Lab/Gree/ NZF ruling Government? Would be suicidal of course but…

  11. CoroDale 11

    Best result would be a re-vote.
    Greens back >10+, contending Maori Seats, and active student door knocking, Maori enrolled and voting, 15%.
    NZF could increase rural vote, and work harder on elderly.
    Labour would remain leading partner, with more solid champagning around schools and corrections. Gnats continue to weaken.

  12. greywarshark 12

    On what’s going to happen tomorrow after talks Gordon Campbell’s take in Scoop on it sounds amusing.

    Gordon Campbell on Peters’ end game in the coalition talks

    We’re now entering the Agatha Christie phase of the coalition negotiations, given that all the main characters have been summoned to the drawing room today by M. Hercule Peters. Although the resolution of the plot will take a few days yet, one can bet … .. Read the rest on Scoop »

  13. greywarshark 13

    Thanks veutoviper

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison over
    The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Pre-departure COVID-19 test for travellers from the UK and the US from 15 January
    Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago