Specials tomorrow
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- Date published:
8:57 am, October 6th, 2017 - 35 comments
Categories: election 2017, electoral commission -
Tags: coalition deals, election 2017, MMP, special votes
According to the Electoral Commission “The target to release the Official Results of the 2017 General Election is 2pm on Saturday 7 October 2017.” A blogger at Cut Your Hair has crunched the numbers and sees only two plausible outcomes:
Realistic possibilities for Parliament post-specials (all two of them)
…
On the basis of past election results since 19992, there are only two likely scenarios for how the preliminary seat allocations in Parliament will change after special votes are counted:Golriz Ghahraman (Green) is in. Nicola Willis (National) is out. This is what will happen if the special vote results are like what they’ve been most MMP elections in NZ. On this scenario, A Nat-NZF government would have 66/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 62/120.
Golriz Ghahraman (Green) and Angie Warren-Clark (Labour) are in. Nicola Willis and Maureen Pugh (both National) are out. This is what will happen if the special votes are like what they were like last election. On this scenario, a Nat-NZF government would have 65/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 63/120. [my emphasis]…
Read on for lots of crunchy spreadsheets.
So was this election most like “most MMP elections” (1 seat change) or most like last election (2 seats)?
There remains a (mathematically unlikely) possibility that this election is a whole new beast, that the rush of late enrollments contains a mini “youth quake” resulting in a 3 seat swing. Don’t pin your hopes on it!
Certain commentators have been trying to paint the left into a corner on the specials:
But it will ultimately be for nothing if the Labour/Greens block can’t pick up a couple more seats via special votes to legitimise their position above a one seat majority with New Zealand First, Dann said.
I suppose Dann regards the minority government of the last 3 years as illegitimate then? The truth is that whatever the outcome of the specials, winning confidence and supply votes in parliament is all that matters. Even if specials result in no changes, 61 gets it done.
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- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than ever
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...12 hours ago - Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...15 hours ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District PlanThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...17 hours ago
- Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...17 hours ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...19 hours ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...20 hours ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...20 hours ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...1 day ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...1 day ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...1 day ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...1 day ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...2 days ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...2 days ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...2 days ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...2 days ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...2 days ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...3 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...3 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...3 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...3 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...4 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...5 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...6 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...6 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...6 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...7 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...7 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...7 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...7 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...1 week ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...1 week ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...1 week ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...1 week ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 week ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 week ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Tikanga is the first law of Aotearoa
A senior lawyer has filed a complaint about tikanga becoming a required law school module. Law lecturer Carwyn Jones explains what he’s getting wrong. “…the first law of Aotearoa, a law that served the needs of tangata whenua for a thousand years before the arrival of tauiwi.” – Ani Mikaere ...1 hour ago - ‘Your agency is taken away’: When endometriosis treatment changes without your consentIn 2019, an Auckland woman woke up from surgery to find that she had undergone a treatment she didn’t consent to. She tells Alex Casey about her experience. From her very first period at the age of 14, Laura experienced “debilitating” levels of pain that forced her to withdraw from ...1 hour ago
- David Seymour – not the associate education minister you expected
Analysis: David Seymour’s school lunches programme goes further than Labour’s The post David Seymour – not the associate education minister you expected appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 hour ago - Wayne Brown’s port deal seeks to end five years of dramaSeeking a mandated shift for Port of Auckland before he was mayor, Wayne Brown has tried demanding huge returns and leasing operations The post Wayne Brown’s port deal seeks to end five years of drama appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 hour ago
- DoC set to cut permanent jobs on Chatham IslandsIn the gloom following director-general Al Morrison’s job cuts in 2013, the Department of Conservation restructured its operations arm. Eleven conservancy districts were whittled into six new “conservation delivery” regions, under which the Rēkohu/Wharekauri/Chatham Islands area, comprising 40 scattered islands more than 800km east of Christchurch, was tethered to the ...1 hour ago
- Levels of litigation rising with economic hardshipOne of th e country’s top litigation lawyers says New Zealand is seeing a lift in court action between companies. Chapman Tripp partner Justin Graham, who oversees a team of around 80 litigation specialists, says the courts are now so log-jammed that it’s taking over two years to get cases ...1 hour ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 9 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 9 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 hour ago
- China challenges must be managed if opportunities are to be sustainedOpinion: A continuation of the previous Labour government’s ‘China-plus’ diversification strategy The post China challenges must be managed if opportunities are to be sustained appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 hour ago
- Green shoots prunedComment: Concerns about the state of the economy are creeping up to the top of firms’ list of challenges. That’s evident in both surveys and the tone of our recent client discussions. Skimming the past few weeks of eco-news, it’s not hard to see why. – Retail card spending fell ...1 hour ago
- Daily crossword, Thursday 9 MayThe post Daily crossword, Thursday 9 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 hour ago
- How the Greens could be contendersOpinion: Could former co-leader James Shaw still make a difference to working with National? The post How the Greens could be contenders appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 hour ago
- The ‘war on drugs’ is really a ‘war on people who use drugs’ – and it doesn’t workOpinion: What if we got rid of our existing drug laws and replaced them with a new law that legalised and carefully regulated all psychoactive substances, from cannabis to MDMA, methamphetamine and LSD to magic mushrooms? And which also included legal drugs such as alcohol and nicotine. “Wow,” you might ...1 hour ago
- Gas is good until 2050 and beyond, under Albanese gas strategy
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government is talking up the crucial role of gas as a transition fuel “through to 2050 and beyond”. In a gas strategy to be released on Thursday, the government envisages the fuel’s ...5 hours ago - Politics with Michelle Grattan: James Paterson on prospects for passage of the government’s deport...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week the government will again next try to get its legislation through to deal with non-citizens who won’t cooperate with efforts to deport them. The bill, which the opposition and crossbench refused to rush ...10 hours ago
- NZCTU Launch Project To Set Out Alternative Vision For Aotearoa
A long-term project that will set out an alternative vision for Aotearoa that looks beyond the narrow confines of the policy straight jacket adopted by successive governments. ...12 hours ago - Yes, Australia’s big supermarkets have been price gouging. But fixing the problem won’t be easySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bree Hurst, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, QUT, Queensland University of Technology TK Kurikawa/Shutterstock A much-awaited report into Coles and Woolworths has found what many customers have long believed – Australia’s big supermarkets engage in price gouging. What started ...12 hours ago
- The government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its deportation bill. Given the findings, it’s easy...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney The Albanese government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its migration amendment bill. The report, handed down yesterday by a senate committee that ...12 hours ago
- Senate report on lobbying passes the buck on improving transparency or legislationSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Lobbying is at the heart of government. Who has access to and influence over key government officials shapes the decisions governments make – and how they make them. The ability to influence ...12 hours ago
- Ngāti Toa rallies against Fast Track Approvals Bill
Iwi would not allow the government to degrade its whenua, moana or awa for the purpose of urban development, ministers were told. ...13 hours ago - Free school lunches: Labour MP apologises over 'offensive' Hamas tweet to SeymourDuncan Webb had queried if the ACT leader did not like hummus because it is too close to Hamas. ...13 hours ago
- Australia’s Eurovision entry this year is the first to sing in First Nations language: meet Electr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Myfany Turpin, Associate Professor, Ethnomusicology, Linguistics and Ethnobiology, University of Sydney The act representing Australia at this year’s Eurovision contest has sadly not qualified for the grand final. Yet for Zaachariaha Fielding and Michael Ross, the duo that makes up Electric Fields, ...14 hours ago
- Labour claims win as govt commits to new free school lunches modelThe Labour Party is claiming a win for its campaign that the government commit to keeping and funding free school lunches. ...14 hours ago
- A definitive list of woke and non-woke foodsIn announcing changes to the school lunches programme, David Seymour said kids would no longer be served ‘woke’ foods. To clear up any confusion, The Spinoff has compiled a guide to the wokeness levels of some common food items. Apple = NOT WOKE Avocado = WOKE Avocado, smashed = EVEN ...15 hours ago
- Future of the planet more important than the Greens survival, former co-leader James Shaw saysFormer Green Party co-leader James Shaw calls out tribalism and hyper-partisanship - including in his own party. ...15 hours ago
- Fourth urgent inquiry by the Waitangi Tribunal, this time on Māori wardsThe Tribunal is conducting another urgent inquiry into plans to require councils to hold a binding referendum on Māori wards. ...15 hours ago
- NCSC Briefs IPAC Representatives On Response To Malicious Cyber ActivityThe Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...15 hours ago
- How is China being taught at Australian universities? And why does this matter? Here’s what our re...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Minglu Chen, Senior Lecturer, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney Robert Way/Shutterstock As the past few years have illustrated so clearly, the Australia-China relationship is complicated. As such, it is crucial for Australians to develop a more nuanced understanding of ...16 hours ago
- Saving the Mary River turtle: how the people of Tiaro rallied behind an iconic speciesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mariana Campbell, Research Lecturer, Conservation, Charles Darwin University Marilyn Connell Australian freshwater turtles are facing an alarming trend. Almost half of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. The Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) is one of Australia’s ...16 hours ago
- Why are algorithms called algorithms? A brief history of the Persian polymath you’ve likely never ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debbie Passey, Digital Health Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without ...16 hours ago
- Neuroaffirming care values the strengths and differences of autistic people, those with ADHD or othe...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Barbaro, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, Psychologist, La Trobe University Unsplash We’ve come a long way in terms of understanding that everyone thinks, interacts and experiences the world differently. In the past, autistic people, people with attention deficit hyperactive disorder ...16 hours ago
- ‘Reckless’ kina devaluation spells disaster for PNG, says NomanePNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s deputy opposition leader James Nomane has accused the government of “reckless economic management” that has forced devaluation to manage loan repayments in foreign currency and placate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prime Minister James Marape “must stop lying to the people of Papua New Guinea”, ...16 hours ago
- Modernising Census – Stats NZFrom today, members of the public can have their say on what Aotearoa New Zealand’s census could look like in the future. ...16 hours ago
- ‘I do love a good funnysad novel’: Jane Arthur on her favourite booksWelcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books. The book I wish I’d written I have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...16 hours ago
- RMA Minister rejects Wellington council's bid to remove heritage protections from buildingsCouncil did not provide sufficient evidence to support its reasons for removing the 10 buildings from the Heritage schedule, Chris Bishop says. ...16 hours ago
- War for Wellington: Minister approves sweeping upzoning, rejects heritage changesThe final decision on the Wellington District Plan makes it official: High-density housing is legal across most of Wellington. Housing minister Chris Bishop has announced his decision on the Wellington District Plan, approving a series of amendments to radically upzone most of Wellington, allowing tens of thousands of new townhouses ...17 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards Analysis – Following the political moneyAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...17 hours ago
- Free school lunches: Year 7 students and above to shift to alternative modelA new interim delivery model will kick in next year to allow time for a full redesign of the scheme before any more money is dedicated. ...18 hours ago
- Rafah ‘last place of safety’ in Gaza, UN aid boss warnsRNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...18 hours ago
- Foreign Affairs minister to lead Pacific delegationThe Foreign Affairs minister is heading on a five-stop Pacific tour, which he says will strengthen New Zealand's engagement in the region. ...18 hours ago
- Why we’re fighting to save Te Huia, the Hamilton-Auckland trainWith funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...18 hours ago
- Greens Call On Government To Keep Same-day Election Enrolment And VotingOn Radio New Zealand this morning, the Justice Minister stated the Government was considering ending election day enrolments. ...18 hours ago
- Many people are feeling ecological grief. How can we help those whose work puts them at risk?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...18 hours ago
- Revitalizing Toronto’s downtown core after COVID-19 greatly benefits the city and the regionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown. (Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...18 hours ago
- Government quiet on costs, building plan for Waikato prison expansionThe extra beds would take longer than the four-years covered in this week's budget announcement to deliver, the Corrections Minister told RNZ. ...19 hours ago
- Chief Electoral Officer Needs To Fall On His SwordResponding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...19 hours ago
- How many productivity apps do I have to use to become more productive?Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations? Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...20 hours ago
- Government considers removing election day voter enrolmentJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith says very few countries allow it, and New Zealand should consider changing the rules. ...20 hours ago
- Beehive Need To Lead By ExampleThe Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...20 hours ago
- The Spinoff Power List: 50 New Zealanders you need to knowAn objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...21 hours ago
- First Nations imprisonment is already at a record high. Unless government policy changes, it will on...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock This article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...21 hours ago
- Martha isn’t Baby Reindeer’s biggest villain. So why is she painted as such?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...22 hours ago
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If Corin Dann is going to insist on interviewing himself, he could at least buy himself a dictionary.
“On the basis of past election results since 19992”
not sure when reached 19992 🙂
It’s in a dystopian world called The Matrix where Blade Runner meets Minority Report – Discovery. Sylvester Stallone has a ‘starring’ role in it too 😉
thanks for posting this Anthony……only one day to wait to see if that late youth vote occured and the ‘somewhat unlikely’ exchange of seats happens……National with 34.5% of the specials seems entirely realistic to me.
Anecdotal evidence suggest it did occur but it may not have been large enough to make much of a difference. If it produces two extra seats – one Labour and one Greens – I’ll be very happy, but you can’t rule out the possibility the youth meant to get off their backsides and enroll/vote but didn’t get there.
is that based on some form of count observed at booths Anne?
Labour needs scenario 2 to happen if there is any chance Labour-Green-NZF forming a government.
So we shall see what happens. Then the clickbait and keyboard interviewing stops, well for now anyway,
And try and remember what happened in 1996. That way, you won’t be disappointed, like I was back then. I remember that evening clear as day.
I do as well. It was the day that I decided to get involved in politics again after Reogernomics had crushed my political activism.
Ditto for me. It was the day I realised words have different meanings when spoken by politicians (sometimes several), such as “Vote for me and change the government”.
Thanks for the reference to the Caleb Morgan Day’s analysis – love that stuff.
My optimistic partner was trying to convince me there would be one more seat for the Greens and 2 for Labour, but now I have the evidence that this, as I thought, would be unlikely.
Although I am not keen on Labour and the Greens having to work with NZF, I still think it will be much better than the alternative. There is some serious poverty in this country and some people are not going to survive another Nat led government.
+ 1 re poverty comment
James Shaw said immediately after election night that it would only take a small increase in the GP vote to get another MP. He has repeated that in an article on RNZ today:
I worked it out on election night (not that I’m a nerd or anything) and it really is a tiny shift to get the Greens one more seat from National.
Would Winston go with 62-58? I think so-Key has had similar numbers for 6 years.
(BTW ACT’s one frat-boy should be added to the ‘orrible Nats of course)
Unless Labour-Green-NZF can get at least 63 (maybe 64) votes, I’d expect NZF to go with National. A 2 seat buffer is still pretty risky, especially when NZF could always vote with the Nats on specific issues.
We all hope so.
One more sleep woot woot !!!! 😀 Special day 😀 The day my vote is officially counted, that’s the only bugger about being on the unpublished roll, you don’t feel like your vote matters until the special results come in.
Am expecting a large volume of the specials to come from tertiary students, judging from the rallies, as well as the ability for them to enroll and vote during the 2 weeks of advance voting.
What a massive number of specials, 15% of all votes is huge, i wonder could this be the largest chunk of special votes NZ has ever had?
One clever columnist reckoned the rush seen at Universities was not to support Labour, but to block Labour from instituting the free Tertiary fees. They would hate to see the oncoming students getting what they missed out on.
Credible? Nah!
Maybe, but analysis of all the university polling booths was done, and is more left leaning than the general results. I did the same for Ara (formerly CPIT), and it showed the same trend.
ROFL !!!!!
Bye bye Maureen Pugh
If a couple of NZF mps jumped ship to National say next year, I wonder what would happen to Lab/Gree/ NZF ruling Government? Would be suicidal of course but…
that is a possibility, Shane Jones just loves labour and absolutely adores the greens
Best result would be a re-vote.
Greens back >10+, contending Maori Seats, and active student door knocking, Maori enrolled and voting, 15%.
NZF could increase rural vote, and work harder on elderly.
Labour would remain leading partner, with more solid champagning around schools and corrections. Gnats continue to weaken.
Is champagning what wealthy left-leaning philanthropists do when door-knocking?
Oh, you brut.
You chianti be serious!
“Excuse me, madam, would you like to take a sec to talk about politics?”
“Alas madam that would be treating – but we shall have one.”
Sparkling wit, everyone, “and I don’t pop my cork for every pun I see.”
On what’s going to happen tomorrow after talks Gordon Campbell’s take in Scoop on it sounds amusing.
Gordon Campbell on Peters’ end game in the coalition talks
We’re now entering the Agatha Christie phase of the coalition negotiations, given that all the main characters have been summoned to the drawing room today by M. Hercule Peters. Although the resolution of the plot will take a few days yet, one can bet … .. Read the rest on Scoop »
Link to Campbell’s article on Scoop for people
http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2017/10/05/gordon-campbell-on-peters-end-game-in-the-coalition-talks/
you’re welcome!
6 October 2017 at 6:34 pm
The Civilian appears to have received some insider information on what really went on inside the hallowed meetings with Winston Peters:
http://www.thecivilian.co.nz/winston-peters-said-nothing-in-talks-with-national-just-walked-around-room-with-a-box-cutter/
😀
We used to call that a Stanley Knife.
Gus Fring cleaning up loose ends with a box cutter on Breaking Bad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6lRxYsn080
Thanks veutoviper
Sweet.