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That ‘ol margin of error

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags: , ,

I posted recently on the noise in polls, and why is is important to take a long term view rather than get excited about any individual poll. Cases in point, what are we to make of the two most recent results? One News on the 17th:

National bounces up in poll

National has bounced up five points in the poll to 49%, its highest approval rating in almost a year. …

Labour and the Greens are both down two points to 33% and 11% respectively.

And the Farifax today:

National no longer a sure winner – poll

Today’s poll puts National on 44.9 per cent – 1.3 percentage points down on our last poll in December, and back to where it was last August.

But the big story is Labour’s slow rise under Mr Shearer. The party is up 1.9 percentage points to 36.3 per cent, 3.7 per cent higher than in August.

There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of these results, it’s just noise – the margin of error. I wish the whole “commentariat” would get this message and stop getting so wound up about individual results! In the second piece linked above the authors (Watkins and Vance) do, thankfully, comment on the longer trend:

Labour has now closed the gap with National to just 8.6 percentage points, compared with 20 points on election night in 2011. With Labour allies the Greens making up the shortfall on 10.7 per cent, the poll points to a much tighter race in 2014.

(Those who are hyper-critical of the current Labour leadership please take note!) In a related piece today Watkins does (hurrah!) set out the important facts:

Trend good for Labour but there’s a way to go

In politics, they say, the trend is your friend. That would make the next election Labour’s to lose on today’s Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll. It confirms a trend of Labour slowly positioning itself to lead the next government.

But that tells only half the story. Because National’s vote, if you use the 2008 election as your yardstick, appears largely undented. …

If there is a story behind the poll numbers it is that many of the undecided vote appear to be soft National voters who have started peeling away, perhaps disillusioned that after four years they are feeling no better off. But when pushed, many still lean toward National. So Labour still has a long way to go.

Come on Labour – give those undecided voters a reason to tick the red box…

32 comments on “That ‘ol margin of error”

  1. Pete 1

    The other factor is the motivation to vote in 2014. Turnout should increase if people believe the election isn’t a foregone conclusion like 2011. If the narrative continues to build that this is a genuine horserace, then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    The opposition needs to build on this and demonstrate that they are a government-in-waiting. It needs to find a way to seize the political discourse for itself rather than just naysaying or non-committal me-tooism. Shearer seems to communicate far more effectively when there’s solid policy to build his arguments around. I think his main flaw is a failure to anticipate the points raised in an interview or by the government. Proper preparation prevents piss poor performance.

  2. Polish Pride 2

    Yes it is good for the left and although many on here won’t like it if you get behind Shearer and provide support rather than division the trend will not only continue it might even increase. Then when a difference can be made you can start to reshape things. For those wanting to do this there are two key things that you must do for someone you want to enact change.
    The first – identify the pain point for the people you are wanting to enact change. This is as simple as highlighting the pr9oblem and how it affects them.
    Second provide the solution – especially in an environment where those needing to change, don’t have the time or the inclination to think about it. Show how your solution will be better for all.

    Q: if Shearer and Robertson start listening to the party members are those of you that want to get rid of them still going to want them gone.
    Q2: Are you also prepared to listen to them (or is there no need because you already have have all the answers…..)

    Everything happens for a reason and there are lessons to be learned from everything including David Cunliffes demotion. The question is what are the lessons? What was the greater purpose?

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Labour has now closed the gap with National to just 8.6 percentage points, compared with 20 points on election night in 2011. With Labour allies the Greens making up the shortfall on 10.7 per cent, the poll points to a much tighter race in 2014.

    The average of the 4 Roy Morgans before the Nov 2011 election gave an answer very close to the final e-day result for Labour. IIRC that same formula for the Roy Morgan overestimated National by a couple of percentage points, points which finally went to the Greens and NZF on e-day.

  4. bad12 4

    Any left leaning voters reading this post who voted for NZFirst at the last election should know that ‘now’ is the time to leave your support for that Party in history’s dustbin as they have fulfilled their purpose and begin to think about supporting one of the party’s further left…

  5. aerobubble 5

    The colour of Key’s gib.

    Conference center paid for by pokies; so global
    association of ethical companies isn’t going to
    have their conference there! I mean good
    people worked hard all over the world, for
    example to get rid of pokies, and they are going
    to balk at the idea that the conference buildings
    is paid for by harvesting the good works of
    good people like them, in reducing pokies,
    in reduction in pokies being reversed to pay
    for the buildings they are conferencing in.

    Globally, Unionists don’t have kids who are of an
    age to see the movie the Hobbit. So Key attacking
    basic union rights unnecessarily to keep the Hobbit
    movie here had no downside, even unionists will love
    the movie despite it harming their interests.

    50%, off the top of Key’s head, that’s how
    much chch land holders will get back. But we know
    businesses who held land, who brought land,
    who got business insurance for loss of business,
    who lost money would get 100% of their loses
    without one peg, one spade of work on the land.
    So no businesses held ChCh empty lots? Paid for them?
    Was paid out 100%?
    Its all very well councils writing off the losses
    of their empty unsold lots, the government can live with
    100% loses, its so large its self-insured against
    the loses, but the little guy who gets caught
    between having brought a lot and having a building
    put up, who can’t get insurance arbitrarily hands over
    50%. There’s no argument about being paid out, the
    argument is why the unfair arbitrariness of the outcome,
    how government is insured, and denies citizens full
    insurance cover arbitrarily. Now everyone in NZ
    has to Keyify their lots, and put up a mail box
    the moment they buy a lot, Key’s legacy to NZ culture.
    Farce.

    Sorry, but Key isn’t all that smart, he’s reactive,
    demanding, and must get his way and spin victory.
    Well when he was reaping huge salaries and bonuses
    and articulating (as he clearing has had much
    experience while working as a currency trader banker).
    The lack of an political echo in the pub after work
    has led to a little money thug who would not know a good
    business argument against his policies, as he is imbued with
    an ideological of relentless revolutionary conservatism
    take no prisoners.
    We are the collection of our past experience, we
    can’t change just because need requires it, when its
    so core for Key to spout neo-liberalism to keep his
    former career path its passes him by when his ideology
    finally has to bear scrutiny.

    Campbell live does a better job of opposing the govt, and
    still manages to look balanced and serving the nation.

  6. dancerwaitakere 6

    “Those who are hyper-critical of the current Labour leadership please take note!”

    See here is where it all starts falling apart. Much of the criticism of the Leadership is not actually about poll results, the heart of it is in the failure of the caucus to live up to their values.

    Lets say Labour gets into Government, I find myself in a position where I don’t believe that it would be an extremely competent Government. In fact Shearer, Robertson and Ardern all have no actual cabinet experience. There are lots of professionals who are able to say the right things (well, sometimes…) but they have been schooled to be politicians, not representatives of workers.

    Labour needs to show us with their List in 2014 that their government is going to be progressive and more radical than the Governments of the last 25 years, in a lefty sort of way.

    What good is a Labour Government if it is not.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Indeed, even at 31% or 32% Labour have a very good chance of forming the Government. But as you pointed out, what kind of Government will it be when the pressure of a growing deficit and stagnant growth starts biting harder.

  7. gobsmacked 7

    Interesting tweet from David Shearer:

    “Tune in to #nzqt today to see me set out why John Key is donkey deep in the Sky City deal. Key isn’t vindicated, he’s implicated.”

    OK, I’ll tune in to Question Time. I hope he can deliver.

    • gobsmacked 7.1

      Shearer did fine on the questions (as did Turei, Norman and Peters) but the new Speaker is blatantly biased and inept. There will be a lot more aggro in Parliament now.

      Unfortunately Shearer later blotted his copybook by outing his previously unknown addiction … he declared – “We, the problem gamblers of New Zealand …”. Oops.

    • David H 7.2

      And Shearer always asks such interesting questions. NOT.

  8. Richard29 8

    “Those who are hyper-critical of the current Labour leadership please take note!”

    To be fair – I don’t think any of those people are concerned that the electorate doesn’t like Labour – I think they have legitimate concerns that Shearer is not a great communicator and that come the election campaign when the heat is on he might crash and burn in front of the cameras and hand victoy to National.

    What do I mean by crash and burn? Giving responses like this to straightforward questions:

    “Zac: Is there room for MPs with homophobic views in the Labour Party?
    Shearer: Oh look yes, absolutely, there are some, when I say homophobic I don’t think we’ve got any homophobes there, but, there are some people who don’t agree with, ah, um, unsection (?) marriage, you mean you know,a marriage between two, two people of the same sex, um, that’s ah, that’s not ah a a majority but um look you know at the same time as we, you know we’ve been at the forefront of these things, we’ve also had people who didn’t agree with it, there’s plenty of room for them as well.”

    Something very similar happened in 2011 – the theory the whole way through was that people should ignore the low level of support because come the election campaign people would warm to Goff and the election would be different. But people didn’t warm to him and support dropped in the lead up to the election.
    http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2012/11/19/labour-leadership-and-the-polls/

    Shearer is not a bad guy, but he isn’t half the communicator that Goff was, and Goff had his ass handed to him on election night 2011. I think what concerns people is the leadership and strategy people from the 2011 defeat remain largely unchanged.

  9. Olwyn 9

    On the day that David Shearer was chosen as Labour Party leader, and right wing journalists joyously popped champagne corks while many Labour supporters cried into their beers, I became disheartened. Nothing has happened since to reverse that feeling. There have been occasional glimmers of hope, which have duly been dashed. I suspect the upcoming reshuffle will fall into that category, but (perhaps foolishly) still hope that I am wrong. This is not because “I just prefer Cunliffe.” It is because I prefer the NZ Labour Party principles over unspecified principles. I prefer a party that galvanises its natural supporters over a party that alienates them, while allowing its natural opponents to sigh with relief. And I prefer a party whose authority rests on widespread consent rather than the vicious kneecapping of talented colleagues. Given that these concerns have not been dispelled, I am not moved by a few percentage points in the polls.

  10. Addison 10

    So relieved to hear the next government will be Labour lead. We can all relax now in the knowledge that the Nats will be out next year?

  11. Anne 11

    And I prefer a party whose authority rests on widespread consent rather than the vicious kneecapping of talented colleagues.

    .

    The elephant in the room Anthony.

    Until David Shearer faces up to this problem, Labour is going to be seriously hamstrung in getting its message across to those undecided voters. I put it to you there are a significant number of member activists who are waiting to see if he will reinstate David Cunliffe to the front bench. I can’t predict exactly what will happen if he doesn’t, but the anger and bitterness created late last year is likely to re-surface and be a millstone around his neck. The concerns about the way Cunliffe – and others – were treated are genuine, and based on the underlying Labour principles of fairness and justice. If Shearer delivers some justice, then he will reap due reward. It’s up to him now.

    • Murray Olsen 11.1

      If he can’t even treat talented members of caucus with fairness and justice, what hope does he have of forming a stable coalition government? On present form, I’d have to say he’d work more naturally with Winston First than either Mana or the Greens. In that case, the only real difference to a NACT repeat would be less fightback from the unions.

  12. 4wardthinking 12

    I agree with Anne. I would hope Shearer was showing a good deal more strategic nous and looking to unite the party rather than engage in ongoing tribal warfare. There’s obviously 10 people in that caucus who don’t have confidence in him. There’s absolutely no sign that he’s doing anything to bring the factions together – surely that is what any “good” leader would do. Also, with Cunliffe, he is still one of the best minds and speakers on the Labour side and goodness knows we could do with some spark right now. That speech he did on the IMF was fantastic. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C7er64lx9A. Surely, it’s about time Shearer started working to his party’s strengths, rather than playing the same old politics?

    • mac1 12.1

      “There’s obviously 10 people in that caucus who don’t have confidence in him.” I’ve seen that figure thrown around in what was supposedly a secret ballot. What source have we for this figure? Or is it some sort of urban myth?

      • Colonial Viper 12.1.1

        I’ve heard the 10 figure around the traps. From sources at both 1 and 2 degrees of separation from caucus.

        However, the only person who would really know is whoever counted the votes out of the secret ballot, I presume the President or Gen Sec.

        • the pigman 12.1.1.1

          [blockquote]I’ve heard the 10 figure around the traps. From sources at both 1 and 2 degrees of separation from caucus.[/blockquote]

          Whaleoil?

          • Colonial Viper 12.1.1.1.1

            If you think he’s 1 or 2 degrees of separation from the Labour Caucus, sure, why not.

        • mac1 12.1.1.2

          Caucus- separation 1- separation2- me. In other words, I know a bloke who knows a bloke who knows a bloke in caucus?

          • mac1 12.1.1.2.1

            Tried to edit- got redefined as undefined.
            @ Colonial Viper:
            Caucus- separation 1 – separation 2- you

            In other words, you know a bloke who knows a bloke who knows a bloke in caucus, and now you’re telling me?

      • Jbug 12.1.2

        Well someone has put it out there. My guess is Grant Robertson’s supporters. He’s the only one who has anything to gain from it. Doesn’t help Cunliffe’s cause at all having that public and certainly doesn’t help Shearer.

  13. 4wardthinking 13

    What’s telling is that the party hierarchy hasn’t denied the reporting of that figure – certainly no-one is saying it was unanimous or that it was less. Very telling.

    • the pigman 13.1

      Correct me if I’m wrong (and please link), but I don’t think it’s been published as fact anywhere reputable.

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1

        Yes because seeing it on a bit of paper makes it true

        • 4wardthinking 13.1.1.1

          Sure, it’s only been in the newspaper and on blogs – but then if you think about it – that is not the kind of rumour that Shearer would surely want out there if it were incorrect. His trust lieutenants would surely be spinning an alternative truth if there was one? However, there has only been deathly silence.

        • the pigman 13.1.1.2

          No, but actually being published by a news organization with shareholders/some form of responsibility, as opposed to coming via Whalespew’s “tipline”, would make it something that Labour might feel compelled to respond to.

          I am not devaluing the legitimacy of blogs, but do you honestly think Labour should have to officially respond to every bit of black rumour that gets smeared on blogs?

  14. 4wardthinking 14

    No, but it has been reported by Fairfax too. Does that count as an organisation with shareholders? And not just once either. So I’m guessing they feel pretty confident about their information.

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    Yesterday, New Zealand recorded its first Covid-19 related death on the West Coast. Unfortunately this is unlikely to be the only fatality, with the virus now being found in every region of the country.However despite the significant danger, people are still unfortunately breaching lockdown rules.There’s really only one main very ...
    4 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #13
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... ‘Misinformation kills’: The link between coronavirus conspiracies and climate denial   Grist / Rob Kim / Stringer / CSA Images  Scientific ...
    4 days ago
  • Rāhui day 4
    The kids did surprisingly well today – meltdown count was about 3, and mostly fairly short ones. (And a fourth while I was writing.) Game-wise I had a go at Fell Seal: Arbiter’s Mark. It’s a fairly standard RPG with turn-based combat and what they call a “mature storyline” (it ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    5 days ago
  • Letter to a friend
    by Don Franks Hi David, Nice hearing from you, I’m glad to hear you’re getting by okay in these grim times. You asked how’s it going for us back here in New Zealand. You would have heard that the whole country is locked down and with breaks for exercise and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 3
    . . Lock Down: Day 3 – A photo essay with observations . March 28: First day of the first weekend in Lock Down. It feels like it’s been weeks since only Level 3 was declared last Tuesday, only four days ago. Woke up this morning to RNZ; coffee; toast, ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    5 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 22, 2020 through Sat, Mar 28, 2020 Articles Linked to on Facebook Sun, Mar 22, 2020 In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters by Chelsea Harvey, ...
    5 days ago
  • Rāhui day 3
    I’m here in lockdown with my flatmate and her two girls (6 and 2) and it. is. a time. They’re usually really active so to start with the only boardgame in the house is the copy of Guess Who that the 6 year old got for her birthday. Flatmate commented ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    6 days ago
  • A test of civil society.
    The CV-19 (COVID) pandemic has seen the imposition of a government ordered national quarantine and the promulgation of a series of measures designed to spread the burden of pain and soften the economic blow on the most strategically important and most vulnerable sectors of society. The national narrative is framed ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 2
    . . Lock Down: Day 2 – A photo essay with observations . March 27 – Day 2 of our Strange New World. The Park and Ride near my suburb, usually filled with hundreds of vehicles, had just… four; . . Another drive into Wellington City on a highway nearly ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • How Do You Feel? What Do You Think?
    Fortune's Children: Under extraordinary pressure, the leader of the Government and the leader of the Opposition will each show us what they are made of. Have they been blessed with intelligence, grace, wit, poise, toughness, empathy and humour – and in what measure? More importantly, to what extent have they ...
    6 days ago
  • Landlords are NOT an essential service
    If you’ve ever had the misfortune of having to rent a property on the open market in New Zealand, which is one of the most expensive in the entire world, you’ll likely be keenly aware of just how arrogant and entitled landlords and their real estate agents can be.Unfortunately for ...
    6 days ago
  • A “new Society” post-COVID19 will definitely emerge. The question is: on what path?
    Society-wise, aside from the specific morbidity shall we say of the medically-oriented aspects of this COVID-19 crisis, what is unfolding before the world is in more than one way an instructive study of humanity and reactions to a high intensity, high stress environment in real time. Friends, we are at ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    7 days ago
  • Raise the Bar: Everything you need to know about the wage subsidy
    Right now low waged and insecure workers are feeling the economic brunt of the looming #Covid19 Recession. In response legal advocate Toby Cooper* and hospitality and worker’s rights advocate Chloe Ann-King, are putting together a series of legal blogs about your employment rights: In this legal blog we outline some ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    7 days ago
  • The massacre of prisoners in Modelo jail, Bogota, March 21
    by Equipo Jurídico Pueblos and Gearóid Ó Loingsigh (25/03/2020) An escape plan in question On the night of March 21st and the early morning of the 22nd, the forces of the Colombian state stormed into the Modelo prison in Bogotá, murdering 23 prisoners and injuring 83, in response to the ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • We are not America
    When the government banned semi-automatic weapons in response to a terrorist atrocity, gun-nuts were outraged. Mired in toxic American gun culture, they thought owning weapons whose sole purpose was killing people was some sort of "constitutional right", a necessity for "defending themselves" against the government. Now, the Court of Appeal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • When will we know the lockdown is working?
    Just before midnight on Wednesday March 25, Aotearoa New Zealand entered a countrywide alert level four lockdown. For at least the next four weeks, everyone who isn’t an essential worker is confined to their bubble. We are doing this to stop the explosive growth in people contracting and dying from ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    7 days ago
  • Lock Down: Day 1
    . . Lock Down: Day 1 – A photo essay with observations . Day one of the Level 4 nationwide lock-down (or, DefCon 4 as I sometimes cheekily call it) started at 11.59PM on 25 March. For a moment, most of the nation held it’s collective breath. In that brief ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    7 days ago
  • A Compelling Recollection.
    Broad, Sunlit Uplands: How those words fired my young imagination! Or, perhaps, it is more accurate to say: how those words fused, in my young mind, with the image printed on every packet of Fielder’s Cornflour. Always fascinated by history, especially modern history, I cannot hear Churchill’s wonderfully evocative words, even ...
    1 week ago
  • The Warehouse – where everyone gets a virus
    . . 24 March 2020 9.46AM Number of covid19 cases in Aotearoa New Zealand: 102 . As of 11.59 on Thursday, most of New Zealand will go into “lock down”. People will be expected not to travel to work; not to socialise; and to stay home. I will not be ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections A respected research group, Project Drawdown, finds that deploying solutions consistent with meeting the Paris climate targets would cost tens of trillions of dollars globally. But crucially, those outlays would also yield long-term savings many times larger than the up-front costs. The new 2020 Drawdown ...
    1 week ago
  • After the Pandemic
    It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future. ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Coronavirus – Cuba shows the way
    We’ve been meaning t write something on Cuba and the coronavirus but have just discovered a very good article on the subject in the US left publication Jacobin.  The article looks at how Cuba, a poor country but one where capitalism has been done away with, is leading the way ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Using privacy law to prevent the death penalty
    In 2018, El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey - two British citizens who had purportedly been stripped of their citizenship by the British government - were captured while fighting for Isis in Syria. The British government then conspired to hand them over to the US, and agreed to provide evidence ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • It’s Time For Disaster Socialism.
    Transformers: The disaster of the Great Depression was transformed into a new and fairer society by the democratic socialism of the First Labour Government. The disaster of the Covid-19 Pandemic offers a similar transformative possibility to the Labour-NZ First-Green Government. Seize the time, Jacinda! You will never have a better ...
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2020
    Tamper with The System? Well, we already are. But there's a difference between accidentally trickling sand into a precision gearbox versus formulating a plan to alter it on the fly with improvements in mind. One action is more or less innocently unscrupulous, the other amenable to earning an easy ...
    1 week ago
  • Avoidable hospitalisations: Helping our health system get through COVID-19
    Associate Prof George Thomson, Louise Delany, Prof Nick Wilson While it is possible that New Zealand can use intense public health controls to eradicate COVID-19 from the country – we must also plan for other scenarios where thousands of New Zealanders are sick – including many urgently hospitalised.1 Better resilience ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: 10 questions to ask your employer proposing redundancy
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or being ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    1 week ago
  • An equitable way to support business
    The Herald reports that the government is planning to lend billions of dollars to large businesses to keep them operating during the pandemic. As with mortgage relief, this is necessary: we need companies to stay in business, to reduce the economic damage and help things get restarted again when this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: Together Alone
    We're about to do something unprecedented as a nation. We hope that by taking this extraordinary action before a single life in New Zealand has been lost to the deadly novel virus we will save tens of thousands of lives. Our  lives. We'll do it together, in households, in isolation ...
    1 week ago
  • Why timing is everything: ‘A time to refrain from embracing’ starts today
    “There is a time for everything,    and a season for every activity under the heavens.”So writes the author of Ecclesiastes, a book in the Old Testament that’s counted as a ‘wisdom’ book and written as if by an unnamed king of Jerusalem. But who would have thought there would be a time ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    1 week ago
  • Dealing with the Covid-19 Tsunami.
    I was surprised when the prime minister described the Economic Response to Covid-19 package as the ‘largest peacetime government spend in New Zealand's history’. Reflecting – checking through history – I realised that the term ‘spend’ was crucial and the package had no income tax cuts. Even so, it has ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • What about renters?
    The government today announced the latest part of its pandemic relief package: a six-month mortgage holiday for people whose incomes have been affected by the pandemic. Which is great, because these people are going to need help, and that's what the government should be doing. At the same time, it ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Living within our means.
    Years ago the Argentine sociologist Carlos Weisman wrote a book titled “Living within our Means.” It was a critique of Argentine society that focused on the paradoxical question of why, in a land of plenty, there was so much economic instability, inequality, corruption and political turmoil. His conclusion was basically ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Transparency and the pandemic
    Parliament will be leading by example and adjourning tomorrow after a special sitting to consider an epidemic notice and state of emergency. Day-to-day oversight of the government will be delegated to a select committee. But that's not the only overight mechanism. The OIA will still be law, and (so far) ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • ‘Overjoyed’: a leading health expert on New Zealand’s coronavirus shutdown, and the challengin...
    Michael Baker, University of Otago Overjoyed. That’s not a word epidemiologists normally use, but that’s how I felt after hearing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s announcement about New Zealand’s COVID-19 shutdown of everything except essential services for at least four weeks from midnight on Wednesday. More than anything, I just ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago

  • Funding certainty for sports through COVID-19
    National sports organisations have been given certainty of funding to ensure they can remain viable through the COVID-19 pandemic, Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “The global spread of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on sport and recreation in New Zealand, including the cancellation or postponement of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Butchers now allowed to process pork
    Changes have been made to allow butchers to process pork, only for supply to supermarkets or other processors or retailers that are open, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has announced. “We carefully weighed the risk of allowing butchers to open their shops for retail customers, but the risk of spreading COVID-19 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Essential workers leave scheme established
    Essential workers who take leave from work to comply with public health guidance are being supported with a leave scheme to ensure they will continue to receive income, say the Minister of Workplace Relations and Safety Iain Lees-Galloway and Minister for Social Development, Carmel Sepuloni. A number of essential businesses ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Govt WhatsApp helps share COVID-19 information
    A Government WhatsApp channel has been launched to help make information more easily accessible and shareable in the fight against COVID-19. Govt.NZ, which is free to use on any mobile device, will carry information and news for the public, businesses, healthcare providers, not for profits and local government. It can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Managed departure plan for stranded foreign nationals enables safe, orderly exit
    The Government has announced a plan to enable the safe, orderly exit of tens of thousands of stranded foreign nationals from New Zealand during the current COVID-19 Alert Level 4 restrictions, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters has said. “When we moved into lockdown a week ago, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Government delivers COVID-19 support to GPs and Pharmacies
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says the Government is delivering on its commitment to support general practice doctors and nurses, and pharmacies on the front-line of our fight against COVID-19. "For us to overcome COVID-19, we need community health services such as general practice and community pharmacy to step up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Susan Thomas the new Chief High Court Judge
    Justice Susan Thomas has been appointed Chief High Court Judge, Attorney-General David Parker announced today.  She replaces Justice Geoffrey Venning who has resigned from the position.   David Parker paid tribute to Justice Venning, who he said had stewarded the High Court very capably over the last five years.   “On behalf ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Business Finance Guarantee – applications open
    Businesses can start applying to their banks for loans under the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme set up to support the New Zealand economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’re moving quickly to protect New Zealand businesses, jobs and the economy during this unprecedented global economic shock,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Work starts on ways to fast-track consents to boost recovery from Covid-19 downturn
    Work is underway looking at measures to speed up consents for development and infrastructure projects during the recovery from COVID 19, to provide jobs and stimulate our economy.  Environment Minister David Parker said the COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global crisis that will have a wide ranging and lasting impact ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Advance payments to support contractors
    Advance payments will be made to transport construction industry contractors to retain the workforce and ensure it is ready to quickly gear up to build projects which will be vital to New Zealand’s COVID-19 economic recovery, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. He said keeping the workforce required to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government seeks infrastructure projects
    The Government has tasked a group of industry leaders to seek out infrastructure projects that are ready to start as soon as the construction industry returns to normal to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford and Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones say. The Infrastructure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Health system scaled up to prepare for COVID-19
    Work to scale up the health system in preparation for COVID-19 was today outlined by Health Minister David Clark, as he reported back to the new Epidemic Response Committee. “We are well placed to contain the spread of COVID-19. We have taken early and decisive action at our borders, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Essential media COVID-19 guidelines refined
    The Government is refining its COVID-19 essential business guidance to include the distribution of news publications for communities which are hard to reach. The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, said the move was in recognition of the importance for New Zealanders who might be harder to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Supermarkets able to open on Easter Sunday
    The Government is ensuring supermarkets can open on Easter Sunday so we can buy groceries, but stay closed on Good Friday allowing workers to take a break. This provides a balanced approach and ensures we avoid large queues that two days closure may cause. “Supermarkets will be able to open ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand defence personnel conclude mission at Taji
    Following the successful conclusion of the Building Partner Capacity (BPC) mission at Taji, New Zealand defence personnel are returning to New Zealand from Iraq, in accordance with the Cabinet decision made in June 2019, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. “New Zealand is very ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • State of National Emergency extended
    The State of National Emergency to help stop the spread of COVID-19 has been extended for a further seven days, Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare said. The initial declaration on March 25 lasted seven days and can be extended as many times as necessary. “Since we went into isolation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Strong Govt books support ‘go hard, go early’ response
    New Zealand’s ability to go hard and go early in the fight against COVID-19 has been underpinned by strong Government finances and the growing economy heading into this global pandemic, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown financial statements for the eight months to the end ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Christchurch Hospital Hagley ICU to open to support COVID-19 response
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says 36 new intensive care beds at Christchurch Hospital’s new Hagley building are being fast tracked so they are available for treatment of COVID-19 patients.   The Ministry of Health is working with contractor CPB and Canterbury DHB to enable access to the hospital’s ICU, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government supports Air NZ freight flights
    The Government has fast-tracked up to $1 million to help Air New Zealand move urgent freight to and from New Zealand, with the first flight to Shanghai leaving tonight, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. Phil Twyford says it’s crucial that trade in vital goods such as medical supplies and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Tariff concessions on COVID-19 related products
    New Zealand will temporarily remove tariffs on all medical and hygiene imports needed for the COVID-19 response. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said today that the New Zealand Customs Service will apply tariff concessions to all diagnostic reagents and testing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Clarification of modification to wage subsidy scheme
    Minister of Finance Grant Robertson has clarified that the changes to the wage subsidy scheme announced yesterday mean that employers should be passing on the full subsidy to workers, except in the case where the person’s normal income is less than the level of the subsidy. “We still want employers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Face masks flowing to DHBs
    Medical face masks from the national reserve supply are now being distributed to District Health Boards, while at the same time local production is being ramped up. Yesterday more than 640,000 masks were sent to DHBS – that is an immediate two week supply, with more to follow in coming ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • COVID-19: Further steps to protect New Zealanders’ jobs
    The Government has made modifications to the wage subsidy scheme to ensure people don’t lose their jobs during the national lockdown. These changes will soften the impact of COVID-19 on workers, families and businesses, and position them to exit the lockdown and look to recovery, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Tax relief for Mycoplasma Bovis farmers
    Farmers whose herds were culled in response to the outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis will be able to minimise the tax treatment of their income in some circumstances. Revenue Minister Stuart Nash says Cabinet has agreed to change the law. It means farmers may be eligible to spread their income over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $27 million for NGOs and community groups to continue providing essential services
    A $27 million dollar package, effective immediately, is being provided to social sector services and community groups to ensure they can continue to provide essential support to communities as we stay at home as a nation to stop the spread of COVID-19, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced. “At ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Statement on guilty plea of March 15 terrorist
    “The guilty plea today will provide some relief to the many people whose lives were shattered by what happened on March 15,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “These guilty pleas and conviction bring accountability for what happened and also save the families who lost loved ones, those who were injured, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 updates
    The Prime Minister is holding daily press conferences to update New Zealanders on the Government's response to COVID-19. Links to videos and transcripts of these updates below. These transcripts also include All of Government press conferences led by Director Ministry of Health's Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 25 March: Live update from the Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Police numbers break through 10,000 mark
    Frontline Police numbers have broken through the 10,000 mark for the first time in history as officers step forward to keep the community safe during the COVID19 lockdown. “Two Police graduations in Auckland and Wellington in the past week have been conducted in unprecedented circumstances,” Police Minister Stuart Nash said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Urgent tax measures for economic recovery
    Urgent legislation has been passed to support the package of economic and social measures needed to recover from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. “The COVID-19 Response (Taxation and Social Assistance Urgent Measures) Bill will cushion New Zealanders from the worst economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Revenue Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further support for farmers and growers as drought persists
    From tomorrow, Government support for farmers and growers affected by drought will be expanded and extended across the country, with access to Rural Assistance Payments (RAPS) available throughout the North Island, parts of the South Island and the Chatham Islands, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced. “These challenging conditions have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Temporary changes to Education Act
    Parliament has passed amendments to legislation that give the Secretary of Education stronger powers to act in the fight to limit the spread of COVID-19, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “They are part of a suite of changes passed under the COVID-19 Response (Urgent Management Measures) Legislation Bill,” Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar join NZ and Singapore in committing to keeping supply a...
    Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar have joined forces with New Zealand and Singapore by committing to keep supply chains open and remove any existing trade restrictive measures on essential goods, especially medical supplies, in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.  Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker today welcomed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Rent increase freeze and more protection for tenants
    Immediate freeze on rent increases Tenancies will not be terminated during the lock-down period, unless the parties agree, or in limited circumstances Tenants who had previously given notice can stay in their if they need to stay in the tenancy during the lock-down period Tenants will still be able to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Working together to protect businesses and workers
    As New Zealand unites to lock-down in the fight against COVID-19, the Finance Minister is urging all businesses and workers to stay connected over the next four weeks. “We understand the extreme pressure many businesses are under right now. I know most business owners think of their workers as family ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • State of National Emergency declared to fight COVID-19
    A State of National Emergency has been declared across the country as the Government pulls out all the stops to curtail the spread of COVID-19. “Today we put in place our country’s second ever State of National Emergency as we fight a global pandemic, save New Zealanders’ lives and prevent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister’s statement on State of National Emergency and Epidemic Notice
    Mr Speaker I wish to make a Ministerial Statement under Standing Order 347 in relation to the recent declaration of a State of National Emergency. Having considered the advice of the Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, the Minister of Civil Defence declared a State of National Emergency for the whole of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Deadline for domestic travel extended
    People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday, Transport Minister Phil Twyford said today. Domestic passenger services, particularly ferries, have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Mortgage holiday and business finance support schemes to cushion COVID impacts
    The Government, retail banks and the Reserve Bank are today announcing a major financial support package for home owners and businesses affected by the economic impacts of COVID-19. The package will include a six month principal and interest payment holiday for mortgage holders and SME customers whose incomes have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government working to keep air freight moving
    Minister of Transport Phil Twyford has today announced details of the Government’s support package to keep key air freight moving and ensure New Zealanders retain access to essential goods during the four-week level 4 lockdown. “The Government is working with airlines and air freight operators to ensure New Zealand’s key ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand moves to COVID-19 Alert Level 3, then Level 4 in 48 hours
    New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict New Zealand to move up to COVID-19 Alert Level 4 – Eliminate, in 48 hours Two-staged approach to give people and businesses time to prepare  Level 3, from tomorrow Non-essential businesses must close All events and gatherings must be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago