The latest Reid Research Poll result

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 2nd, 2021 - 134 comments
Categories: act, climate change, covid-19, ETS, greens, human rights, labour, national, polls - Tags:

Last night’s Reid Research poll provided an interesting result.  The normal caveats apply, an individual poll should not be relied on and we need to see a few more polls before we can ascertain a trend.  But it suggests that Labour’s historic high support has declined to more traditionally realistic levels.

The results were:

  • Labour at 43% down 9.7
  • National at 28.7% up 1.7
  • Act at 11.1% up 4.2
  • Greens at 8.5% up 1.4
  • There is still life in the corpse, NZ First at 3.4% up 1.5
  • And the Maori Party was at 1.9% up 0.7.

I cannot say I am surprised at the general direction.  The previous Reid Research poll results seemed to be overly optimistic.  And winter is sometimes the time of discontent, too many wet days and not enough sunshine.

In terms of what has been happening recently the unrelenting negativity of the Herald and talkback radio appears to be causing a response.  In particular elements of the media have attacked the Government’s competence on the handling of Covid.  I would still rate it extraordinarily high, best in the world, but there is a general fatigue among the community after 15 months of response and suddenly it feels like news of every slight misstep is being amplified.

The Herald in particular has not been helpful.  As an example this weekend’s mass vaccination event in Manukau has concluded and by all accounts has been highly successful.  By all accounts except from the Herald point of view who chose to amplify news of delays on Friday and catastrophise the event as the system bedded in but then posted somewhat muted commentary as the system righted and worked perfectly.

The Government is still being hammered about the pace of the vaccine roll out even though the pace and design of the system is based on us remaining covid free.  We have the luxury of an orderly roll out, not the accelerated roll out of other nations fighting to keep the virus under control.

The consultation on changes to the hate speech law has been somewhat ham-fisted.  Official comments have lacked clarity and into the vacuum have rode the opposition pushing a variety of conspiracy theories.

And climate change is the other issue that is having an effect.  The big responses needed and which the Government is foreshadowing are driving up fear and this is a potent emotion for the right to use.  The left do best when they campaign using hope, the right do best when they campaign on fear.

Also kiwis always spread the love around but tend to trust Governments for three terms unless they are performing exceptionally well or exceptionally poorly.  Four of the past five governments have survived for three terms and only the fourth Labour Government, blighted by Rogernomics, lasted for a shorter period.

National is still in the doldrums.  There is no respite in sight for Judith Collins.  And David Seymour is obviously favour of the month right now.

But this result will shine a light on some of his MPs who so far have not been tested.

I don’t think too much should be read into this.  But it is a reminder that the Government needs to be more nimble, clearer in its communication and competent in its management.  And remember to campaign using hope which is the perfect antidote to fear.

134 comments on “The latest Reid Research Poll result ”

  1. Tony Veitch (not etc.) 1

    Time for the natz to rethink the sweetheart deal with Seymour, I think.

    • Gosman 1.1

      Ummm…. you are aware of the 5% threshold are you? Even if he was to lose Epsom it would have no impact on the ACT party total number of MP's. However the chance of him losing Epsom is incredibly low. He is extremely popular in the electorate.

  2. mikesh 2

    I see that the Opportunities Party was at 3%. Significant enough for a mention, i would have thought.

  3. Gosman 3

    ACT has managed it's introduction of the new MP's incredibly well. They have kept their heads down for the first 6 months of their time in Parliament learning the ropes and now they are starting to slowly increase their profiles but within a framework of the collective ACT party rather than as individuals. During the current three week break groups of MP's have been holding meetings with the public and David Seymour has not been present for much of them. I attended one event in Whitby on a Wednesday at lunch time and the venue was packed and the speakers were Nicole McKee and James Mcdowall who were both very impressive speakers. Some more observant people may also have noted that David Seymour is not fronting all the policy release either. Nicole McKee was the face of the justice policy release for example.

    • Tiger Mountain 3.1

      Mrs McKee is a reasonably prominent face of NZ warm gun lovers–COLFO (Council of Licensed Firearms Owners Inc) which is classic astro turfing–proclaiming to be for sports shooters but with various arms industry links. Strangely enough COLFO’s online presences seem to have been cleansed of their previous US NRA affiliation references (via international sports shooting associations–you had to dig to find them even back then), and local firearm retailers, since the linkage with ACT.

      https://www.colfo.org.nz

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-shooting/111482578/nra-calls-for-stop-to-nzs-socialist-disarmament-alongside-appeal-for-donations

      ACT certainly seems to be going for the Trump style vote in NZ. Provincial ute drivers, Incels, and gun lovers!

      • Gosman 3.1.1

        Nicole McKee is no longer affiliated to COLFO. She does focus on firearm issues in the ACT caucus but as a result of her expertise and experience.

        I'm not sure where you got the idea that ACT was attempting to attract incels from. What ACT party policy specifically targets this community?

        • lprent 3.1.2.1

          If you ever look at the history of police clampdowns here and overseas, you’ll find that when the police do a big push against organised crime and weapons use, you also find an increase in gun crime – especially against the police.

          The reason is in your first link and second link (they are the same article).

          In total, 1862 firearms were seized under sections 6 or 18 of the Search and Surveillance Act, more than double the 860 that were seized a decade earlier.

          In a statement, police said there is a strong focus on stopping violence and the impact of organised crime groups and gangs, where a high number of the firearms incidents take place.

          They said emphasis had been placed on disrupting the manufacture, modification and supply of firearms to these groups.

          Of course you can be a simpleton and just look at headlines, but it often pays to dig down a little further and read the links that you post. I don’t think you even read the articles you linked because it is pretty obvious that the first two links were from RNZ.

          Personally I suspect that you’re just another moronic troll with barely enough intelligence to be a useful parrot.

          • Gypsy 3.1.2.1.1

            "…you’ll find that when the police do a big push against organised crime and weapons use, you also find an increase in gun crime – especially against the police"

            1. The increase in gun crime is before the government announcement about a crackdown on gangs (in May) and Operation Trojan Shield (in June).
            2. The links don't include any analysis of the gun crimes by intended or actual victim. Of the 5 examples given in the third article, only one (the July 10th incident) appears to be directed specifically at Police, the others all appear to have been sourced from civilian incidents.

            That said, here’s what the police are facing:

            https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/outbreak-of-gun-violence-warning-for-public-to-be-vigilant-as-criminals-increasingly-ready-to-pull-the-trigger/N4HXTX7L4LFD6DHO6QZBA22IQM/
            "Figures obtained by the Herald showed there were 18 cases where a gun was fired, or pointed in the direction of, a police officer, police car or a police dog, in the 10 months following Hunt's death. That didn't include other cases where firearms have been found at an incident but not used as weapons. rontline officers say those statistics are only the tip of the iceberg, as it's increasingly common to find guns in cars they pull over."

            What was the purpose of the policy if not to reduce gun crime, and get guns off the streets?

            • lprent 3.1.2.1.1.1

              What was the purpose of the policy if not to reduce gun crime, and get guns off the streets?

              Of course when the government does a policy of cutting off certain types of weapons, then everyone with a weapon hands them in. They don't sell them on the black market?

              When the police do a crackdown, that the everyone that they target is peaceable.

              Of course changing the rules is going to cause more aggravating chaos in the short to medium term before we reach a new equilibrium. It is what happens in almost every process from social to climate to mundanities like boiling a jug.

              I guess you believe in fairy tales as well. That the viruses don't evolve? Or everyone voluntarily following the law because it is the right thing to do? Or economists being able to make accurate forecasts of future events?

              • Gypsy

                "Of course when the government does a policy of cutting off certain types of weapons, then everyone with a weapon hands them in. They don't sell them on the black market?"

                Perhaps you've unwittingly nailed it. The policy has led to some people (people honest enough to comply) handing in their weapons. Not the gangs or any other bad bastards. They seem have just got even more.

                “Of course changing the rules is going to cause more aggravating chaos in the short to medium term before we reach a new equilibrium.”
                As I have already noted, the data is from before recent police action.

                • lprent

                  Joining the dots because you don't seem to get the obvious linkages.

                  A: More weapons sold by 'responsible' gunowners avoiding complying with handing their weapons in == more weapons floating around in the black market means more dickheads wanting to play with their toys == more chaos and more weapons offenses in the interim.

                  This was obviously expected by police because they're going hard out on illegal weapons. Probably because so many of the 'responsible' gunowners spent months saying that was what they would be doing on the net and elsewhere.

                  B: The alternative (aka the previous status quo) == not constraining semi-automatics == more 'lawful' gun owners and gun shop willing to sell massacre weapons to dickheads == repeated massacres on innocents.

                  Basically 'responsible' gunowners and gunshop owners are the irresponsible fuckwits who, over decades, lobbied for reducing the licensing requirements, traded weapons at gun clubs, have been importing increasing military style weapons and who are now whining about the consequences of their actions.

                  As a group they failed to live up to the responsibility they were given. I have zero sympathy.

                  The police are slowly removing the remaining (now) illegal weapons from circulation which is why there is a increased seizure rate (approx 3-4 times what it was a few years ago). They can do this because no-one can now argue that they have those weapons legitimately. This is a process that will probably take most of a decade.

                  Overall and over time, the current policies will make it so innocents are less susceptible to 'responsible' gunowners flogging off massacre weapons to dickheads who then misuse them. As far as I am concerned it is something that shouldn't have happened – and I directly blame the group of 'responsible' gunowners and gun importers for causing it to be able to happen.

                  I'd point out that I trained as military, have spent a lot of time around weapons at various times in my life, and now have an extensive history of being involved in military training.

                  I also have little sympathy for apologists for those indirectly responsible for massacring unarmed civilians.

                  • Gypsy

                    There are two problems with your argument:

                    1. The new gun laws, as written and implemented, would not have stopped the massacre of unarmed civilians such as occurred in Christchurch.
                    2. You have provided no evidence that what you describe as "more chaos and more weapons offenses" are confined to an 'interim'. Only time will tell.
                    • lprent
                      1. What in the hell do you mean? Do you mean that not having easy access to hi-fire rate semi-automatic weapons or large ammo capacity magazines and weapons would not reduced the death and injury rate.

                      FFS Don't be a dumbarse fool.

                      2. If you go and have a look at the countries that have instituted constraints on weapons with buybacks – like Australia after their massacre in Tasmania, read their statistics. You will see a nearly identical pattern of behaviour.

                      FFS perhaps you should read some history for examples of what actually happens rather than what you think could happen. It may be enlightening.

                    • Gypsy

                      1."Do you mean that not having easy access to hi-fire rate semi-automatic weapons or large ammo capacity magazines and weapons would not reduced the death and injury rate."

                      Correct. It only takes one person to access such weapons to repeat a Christchurch, and there is no evidence any nutter would find it any harder to access them now. Meanwhile, since the restrictions came into place, gun crime, and the incidence of gun carry by people whom the police pull over, has increased.

                      2. "If you go and have a look at the countries that have instituted constraints on weapons with buybacks – like Australia after their massacre in Tasmania, read their statistics."

                      I have.

                      https://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-australia-gun-law-deaths-20180926-story.html

                      Their difference-in-difference analysis revealed that although the rate of gun-related suicides fell steadily after the NFA went into effect in 1997, that decline was part of a larger trend that began in the late 1980s — and wasn’t altered by the new law.

                      Likewise, homicides in Australia were already dropping when the National Firearms Agreement went into effect. The rate of gun-related homicides fell in the wake of the NFA, but the law had no effect “over and above a broad decline” in homicides involving all kinds of weapons

                      The facts are that the laws haven't worked in terms of reducing gun crime. You're trying to argue they will over time. You may well be right, but then Labour may still build 100,000 kiwibuild homes and National may still get above 30% in the polls.

    • Gypsy 3.2

      Hi Gosman. I am not an ACT voter, but I recently had a face-to-face meeting with Simon Court on behalf of an environmental organisation I am involved with. I came away impressed – he's a good operator who was well informed and genuinely interested.

      • Gosman 3.2.1

        The whole caucus is like that I assure you. None of them are blow hard ideologues who are looking to use their position to get ahead. They are genuinely interested in developing good policy.

  4. Sanctuary 4

    "…the speakers were Nicole McKee…"

    Who is a crazy gun nut, but apart from that I am sure she is lovely.

    • Gosman 4.1

      Why do you think she is a crazy gun nut? Is it because you have made assumptions about her because she disagrees with you on issues like gun control or do you have any hard evidence that she promotes a policy that could be seen as radically freeing up gun control legislation ?

    • Jimmy 4.2

      I don't think you have to worry about her being a crazy gun nut, as I can't imagine her being involved in shooting at police or car jacking people in Penrose etc. There are plenty of other gun nuts out there unfortunately with the guns as evidenced by all the shootings lately in the news.

      • bwaghorn 4.2.1

        It would be very interesting to dig into the history of the guns in these latest shootings to see if they were sold legally before the crack down or if the are illegal imports, ?

        • Ngungukai 4.2.1.1

          Highly likely they are illegal, quite a few weapons getting through our porous borders and some getting through via traditional shipping routes.

    • left for dead 4.3

      Sanctuary .Well do you. "crazy gun nut" do you realize how stupid you sound,is their an adult about you somewhere,please put on. This sort of rubbish does the issue no good,wake up,your dragging the left further towards no-mans land.

  5. Gabby 5

    RNZ seem to have been careful to avoid mentioning Ardern's preferred PM rating in the same breath as Jadee's and Seemore's. I'm assuming that it may not fit the resurgent right narrative.

  6. Keith Christie 6

    Indeed. I am heartily sick of our RW media calling everything a shambles. MIQ is a S, the vaccination roll out is a S, housing is an S. Even the dawn raids apology has its critics highlighted.( Evidently Pacifica people all go to Church on a Sunday Afternoon!) I have had my 2 jabs with no problems and a minimum wait of no more than 10 minutes. What I find a shambles is my private sector health primary health care computer system.

    • mac1 6.1

      Yes, another useful word has lost its meaning by wrong and over-usage. "Shambles" now joins such vocabulary as "nice, awful, OMG, awesome, amazing". Standardistas probably can add many more to this list. Shambles by the way originally was a slaughter house and an old district in York. Now, it's no more than a minor mix-up.

  7. Tiger Mountain 7

    Sure, one poll is one poll if you are a regular politics follower. Everyone knows the headline issues–COVID being a bit of a world stopper! But there are literally hundreds of significant, incremental, and more minor positive reforms enacted so far by this majority Labour Gov. If only they would tell the country about it–! loudly beyond the PM’s well done social media. $20 min wage, pay equity for care workers, extending PPL, free school meals, Fair Pay Agreements, Matariki public holiday, commitments to EVs, re-centralising Health from DHBs etc. Weekly, millions are spent in Northland where I reside–Kawakawa Hospital, Kaitaia Solar Farm, Kaikohe Business Park, revitalised rail, marine transport for the Kaipara…Kelvin, Willow Jean and Emily are permanent fixtures with good news for locals in the media.

    But I maintain Labour have squandered a once in a generation majority MMP Govt because of two things that the Labour Party and Labour Caucus are not ideologically and organisationally equipped to handle…
    1. Coming up 40 years of neo liberal hegemony (thanks Roger’n’Ruth) whereby penetration of public infrastructure by private capital–contracting out, managerialism, fifth columnists at senior public service level etc. WINZ/MSD is punitive and rotten as are other departments–pay a basic income to all citizens via IRD and be done with it. We still have some of the freest in and out flows of capital in the world, the banks and other corporates export their profits relentlessly. Capital needs to be challenged decisively with a national shipping line set up, electricity generation and supply put in full public ownership and so on.
    2. Failure to deal decisively with housing

    This majority Govt should have put state houses and apartments and emergency and homeless tiny houses on a “war footing” with a mega build of modular houses. Urgent non degree training programmes for their implementation. Solving supply would have a heavy effect on housing demand and the finance capital market element of it that has divided this country into owners and renters.

    • Gosman 7.1

      Your last point would be the final seal on the demise of the Labour government as the ineviatable failure to deliver due to capacity constraints (Land, Labour, and Material) would mean Labour would sink further in the voters perception of competency.

      • Descendant Of Smith 7.1.1

        Yeah building industry labour is much more of a constraint than people realised. Without good solid investment in training over the next 10 years it will get worse.

        Entirely predictable though – we have known and forecast this for the last 30 years. All the OECD countries are affected predominantly by an older European aging work-force. The Christchurch rebuild had to be the biggest lost opportunity of all time to increase our current / future capacity.

  8. AB 8

    So the centre to left (Lab/Gr) is about 50%, while the right to far right (Nat/ACT) is about 40%. Sounds fairly accurate – our political spectrum is still skewed horribly to the right, but the 40% is probably softer that the 50%.

    • Tiger Mountain 8.1

      2023 and 2026 General Elections will be good tests, as with every boomer funeral the replacement voter generations grow in number.

      Will the old assertion by various pundits hold–“don’t assume previous non voters or younger voters will vote left…” we are going to find out soon. My take is that as long as NZ remains a tale of two cities with 50% owning just 2% of the wealth, and student loan debts and exploitative rents applying to hundreds of thousands the political balance can change further.

    • Gosman 8.2

      A lot of politics is about momentum. The right have some on at the moment. Given the fact governments usually struggle to increase support during and after their second term Labour has a lot to do to make 2023 a safe bet. They certainly can't rely on The Greens alone to get them over the line.

      • McFlock 8.2.1

        At a combined strength of sub-40%, the Right need all the momentum they can get. And yet the nats have barely moved since the election, according to Reid research.

        They're a funnel to Act support.

        • lprent 8.2.1.1

          At a combined strength of sub-40%, the Right need all the momentum they can get.

          That is basically my read of this poll as well.

          Roughly 1 year in on a second term. With all of the concerted media slagging of the current government from those who'd like them to do more and those who just want them to fail regardless of the cost…

          Labour / Greens at ~51% down from ~58% at the election
          National / ACT AT ~40% up from ~33% at the election
          ~9% floating around in protest parties up from ~8% at the election

          A 7% swing isn't too bad at this phase of the electoral cycle – if you believe that any polls reflect reality at this stage (this is the protest signalling and low hit rates part of the cycle).

          Act are being parasitical on the National vote bleeding off protest votes on their right. The Nats are clawing back a bit of support from their supporters who deserted them after the unstable clusterfuck of have 3 leaders in an election year. But those are the easy capture votes. Rather meaningless because it mostly means that the right has just stemmed the bleeding without making any significiant gains.

          Remember that at the start of 2020 the Reid poll was showing National alone on 43% – slightly more than 42% for Labour. Act on 1.8%, Greens on 5.6%, and NZF on 3.6%.

          In other words the Lab/Grn on about ~45% and Nat/Act on ~44%. The National strategy at that point was pretty much targeted at killing off NZF collecting some of their vote on the way through

          But basically the right vote isn't moving much at all. Certainly makes it unlikely to be capable of getting the kind of momentum being able to form a government.

          I think that voters are looking more at what they see themselves than listening to the remaining talking heads and self-inflated opinion makers.

          I know that I am.

          • Gosman 8.2.1.1.1

            You are once again very wrong. ACT is attracting people who voted Labour in 2020 not mainly taking support directly from National.

            • McFlock 8.2.1.1.1.1

              lol so in your worldview the nats are doing so badly people are going from Labour straight to Act.

              Where'd you get that from? Farrar?

              • Incognito

                Apparently, Bomber is quite popular with ACToids and quite the anti-hero.

              • Jimmy

                I thought the last people to go straight from Labour to Act were Roger Douglas and Richard Prebble.

                • McFlock

                  Maybe Labour's done so well that a whole bunch of their voters in 2020 have become landlords and hospo business owners?

                • Incognito

                  You’re 100% correct: there’s no such thing as the average voter.

              • Gosman

                Listen to Stephen Mills on the Politics segment on RNZ this morning.

            • Incognito 8.2.1.1.1.2

              Those people who voted for Labour in 2020 and who allegedly are now drawn to ACT what did they vote previously? Are you suggesting that they used to be ACT voters who are now returning to the ACT vault?

            • Drowsy M. Kram 8.2.1.1.1.3

              Genuinely curious – do you know that for a fact, and, if so, how do you know?

              Seems unlikely voters would leap-frog over National from Labour to ACT en masse; maybe a few self-interested turncoats à la Douglas and Prebble?

        • Ngungukai 8.2.1.2

          National are still bleeding votes to ACT

    • Bearded Git 8.3

      Lab/Gr/MP 69 seats Nat/ACT 51 seats

      Looks pretty comfortable to me.

      Nobody seems to be talking about how well the Greens are polling.

      • Sabine 8.3.1

        When is election day?

        • Bearded Git 8.3.1.1

          It is over a year away.

          • alwyn 8.3.1.1.1

            It is actually over two years away.

            Yes the last election really was on 17 October, 2020. That is just nine and a half months ago. It seems much longer doesn't it?

            • Drowsy M. Kram 8.3.1.1.1.1

              Would be even longer than "just nine and a half months" without the pandemic-induced delay. Mind you, it could have been much less than "just nine and a half months" if the opposition National party had had their way – frustrating!

              Collins calls for election to be pushed back to late November or 2021

              Watch the eyebrows at 34 mins – good turnout (~82%) at the last GE though.

            • Bearded Git 8.3.1.1.1.2

              oops…yes Alwyn sorry. It feels longersmiley

              ….oh and I’m wrong about the Greens too because apparently Claire Trevett has done an article saying they are the big winners in this poll. This is Granny paywalled however….maybe somebody who has access could cut and paste some elements?

  9. Anne 9

    …weekend’s mass vaccination event in Manukau has concluded and by all accounts has been highly successful. By all accounts except from the Herald point of view who chose to amplify news of delays on Friday and catastrophise the event as the system bedded in…

    Yep. After all the negative publicity, I went online Sunday evening to get the final figures. Not a sausage! Now we know why. It was such a huge success the media deemed it no longer newsworthy. 🙄

    My own view is that a lot of voters fell for the constant barrage of negative stories about the slow Covid roll-out while the reason was largely ignored… slow start to vaccine arrival due to our Covid-free status. We paid a price for that, but the vaccines are rolling in now so I wonder what the next media created "catastrophe" will be.

      • Tiger Mountain 9.1.1

        The RNZ show sounded positive regarding just about anything from target numbers, to waiting times to customer satisfaction–roll out is happening.

        Even in the Far North in my local community on Karikari Peninsula, hundreds have been vaccinated on schedule at local hall for several months now.

        • Incognito 9.1.1.1

          Bugger that, what a shambles wink

        • lprent 9.1.1.2

          Vaccinations are pretty much running to plan from what I can see. The encouraging thing is that they have pre-trained the vaccinators prior to the big wind up over August and September.

          The plan was always based around vaccine supply and making sure that they'd have the people to wind up in an orderly manner. It was based around maintaining a secure border, defense in depth based on rapid decisions about containment, and trying to learn lessons from the inevitable mistakes.

          In other words it was never going to be perfect – which is why you concentrate on depth.

          From the various detractors, all I hear are Chicken Little idiots crying about MIQ rationing (what did did the dimwits expect – expanding too fast means increasing risks), wanting rescues on industries that were unsustainable without cheap imported labour, wanting bulk traffic to sustain tourism, and above all privileged exceptions to MIQ on compassionate grounds or 'responsible' self-isolation for reduced quarantine – the most dangerous risk there is.

          Screw them all – none of those things are very safe in a pandemic and that should have been obvious to anyone with any brains. Clearly most of those inflated egos just need to learn some common sense.

          What has been interesting is the depth of dependence in our low productivity economy on cheap offshore labour and skill sources. The goods transport issues were an inevitable consequence on being far from anywhere, and provide the point of proof about why we continue to use government support for AirNZ – our backup air-freight system.

      • Anne 9.1.2

        Oops: I had an early night last night. I was thinking more of the tabloid press and the right-wing whingers who stretch across the media spectrum. No need to name them. We all know who they are.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 9.2

      I wonder what the next media created "catastrophe" will be.

      Expect many more attacks of chaos in Auckland Wellington New Zealand this month, to be reported using the well-established 'absolute/complete/utter shambles' template.

      Coronavirus: Delays at Auckland mass vaccination event cause frustration for Aucklanders
      Aucklanders attending a mass vaccination event on Friday have complained it's an "absolute shambles", with reports there were delays of up to an hour this morning.

      We don’t know how lucky we are…

  10. infused 10

    You really are delusional.

    Talkback isn't driving this narrative. The governments failings are.

    • The year of delivery?
    • The year of the vaccine?

    I mean come on. What have they actually delivered?

    • More poverty
    • More debt
    • Increase is social housing waiting

    I mean shit, I can't actually be assed listing everything.

    What you are seeing is the public getting tired of in-action – pissing around with hate laws which go too far, building 800m bridges for cyclists, etc.

    Quite a few lefties I know have had enough – and you just have to listen to Bomber to see where things are at.

    Don't get me wrong. National have no answers. National is a shit show. But this govt isn't any better.

    • Incognito 10.1

      Yeah, Bomber is the quintessential Lefty and speaks for all Lefties, obviously. \sarc

      • infused 10.1.1

        He's expressing how fucked off a lot of Labour voters are. Why do you think Labour lost almost 10% of the soft vote?

        • Incognito 10.1.1.1

          Sure, he personally knows tens of thousands of Labour voters but is not actually one himself. As I said, a quintessential Lefty and one that you love to cite here because it suits your biased narrative.

          • infused 10.1.1.1.1

            I don't think I've ever cited him lol. I just find it hilarious that he was praising Labour when they won, almost god like, now he's shitting on them almost daily.

            • Incognito 10.1.1.1.1.1

              But you did exactly that here (https://thestandard.org.nz/the-latest-reid-research-poll-result/#comment-1806475):

              … and you just have to listen to Bomber to see where things are at. [my bold]

              Such short memory or is it just selective and convenient amnesia? Seems that Righties are particularly prone to it.

            • GreenBus 10.1.1.1.1.2

              TDB has gone bonkers over hate speech laws and has attracted zillions of right wing nutjobs only too happy to have there say when Bomber sticks the knife in everything that moves in the red corner.

              • Gosman

                When you have people like Sue Moroney saying stuff like if you fear you are going to be prosecuted for hate speech you should keep quiet it is understandable why they are so annoyed at the proposed Hate speecxh law changes.

                • Incognito

                  My guess is that no more than 5% of those oh-so-annoyed and fearful folks will exercise their democratic right and make a constructive submission before 6 August. Much easier for those lazy loudmouths to rave and rant on a free platform and exercise their God-given right to ‘free speech’.

    • Jimmy 10.2

      I agree. Of course it is the govt failings causing the reduction in popularity. "The year of delivery" has that actually started yet? Or did I miss it. IMO there is a fair share of left leaning media that are assisting the government or dissing National eg. Tova O'Brien. Labour were always going to struggle to maintain that high level of popularity. They are lucky that currently the opposition are in such a mess that there is no alternative.

    • Patricia Bremner 10.3

      Infused, stop drinking at the right wing tap lol
      We on the left know how fickle and self serving the “soft middle” are. “what’s in it for me?” Seldom are they talking community, oh no “freedom” “progress” and “personal responsibility”. That is until it is someone else’s freedom and progress, then they won’t accept personal responsibility for any of the current problems. They come out with “well you have had FOUR whole years!!”
      Yes, 4 years to overcome pernicious neglect… but it is happening.

  11. Ad 11

    Sarah Palin's "How's all that hopey changey stuff working out for ya?" is the question and the 9-point drop is the answer.

    Labour have so few opinion leaders supporting them right now, it's going to need a major reset to start tilting it the other way.

    Labour are already at a point where they need to kill a few big policy initiatives and start showing ordinary people how their lives have changed for the better.

    This 3rd election doesn't have to be as tight as the Clark-Cullen one.

    • lprent 11.1

      Most of the opinion leaders are just reactive nut-bars talking to each other as far as I can see. Hard to find anyone who actually even seem to repeat them these days.

      I think that the number of people watching or listening to broadcast media is crunching out as people increasingly shift to streamed. Much of the print media opinion are hiding behind subscription firewalls and getting steadily more targeted to their focused and small subscription audiences. The longer they stay there, the more out of touch they seem to be.

      I read them in the Herald, but these days I have a look at the end of the article first to see how unhinged they are like to be. For instance – reading anything from NZ Initiative is a complete waste of time. None of it has any relationship to the business world that I have been working in for decades.

      There are very few that seem to have any useful depth of knowledge to draw on. They're either PR folls or talking about business economics models that rely on a normality that doesn't exist any more.

      • Ad 11.1.1

        Most opinion leaders are nutbars in both msm and social media.

        As for the msm, the most reliable voters are old, still watch the news each nigh, and listen to the radio.

        Ardern needs to find some friends beyond her Facebook count.

        • lprent 11.1.1.1

          I know a few of them. Pretty much my age or older. They are a significant voter block. However they aren't exactly an increasing voter block. And over the years, their grandkids are educating them about why watching network TV and radio is so so last century.

          If they are younger, then they’re usually very conservative – as in don’t like change. Even the ones on the left of politics. They like clinging to things that simply don’t work well any more, regardless of how they suited the 80s or 90s. The talking heads are redolent of their views.

          In which case they aren’t going to like the upcoming 3 decades or so. The world is going to do nothing for a slow life and it rapidly changes on almost every front from climate to technology to economics to politics.

    • Patricia Bremner 11.2

      Ad, A better question is "Where is Sarah Palin now?"

      Answer living quietly in Alaska, divorced, kids have all left and she won’t do interviews.

      • Ad 11.2.1

        Peter Dunne for example is on air every weekday.

      • arkie 11.2.2

        Not really though:

        Sarah Palin hints at Alaska Senate run against Republican Lisa Murkowski

        Sun 1 Aug 2021 14.10 BST

        “I would say you guys better be there for me this time, because a lot of people were not there for me last time,” Palin told her Christian audience, referring to her spell as running mate to John McCain in 2008.

        Palin has appeared with Trump over the years but has not been a consistent national political presence since she resigned as governor of Alaska in 2009.

        Speaking to Ahn, she claimed to have been persecuted by her political enemies and said: “There’s a difference between quitting and saying enough is enough.”

        Palin said she would pray about a possible Senate run. She also said “America was dedicated to God” and said the US left was attempting to “fundamentally transform the nation that does belong to God”.

        “How dare we take from God what is his and say we’re going to do what we want to do with it?” she asked.

        https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/01/sarah-palin-senate-run-republican-lisa-murkowski-trump

  12. Rapunzel 12

    Seymour barely let's anyone get a look at the majority of his MPs for good reason – no one can name more that one or two. They cost $1.4m per annum – the chances of another five on those figures being much use are slim to non-existent

    The Opposition has thrown around baseless claims on anything they can think of for weeks with no traction – based on that the shifting around the base doesn't surprise.

    Apparently "kiwiblog" is writing it off as the PM's personal popularity – IMO he's wrong it's the overall direction that middle NZ is interested in & will vote for. They won't vote in sufficient numbers for people they don't trust

    • Gosman 12.1

      Ummm… Labour has dropped 9 points in this poll. That is not a "shifting around of the base" but more an indication that many people are starting to be concerned about certain areas of government policy. The left bloc is still comfortable at this stage but 2023 isn't going to be the walk in the park you suggest it will be.

      • Rapunzel 12.1.1

        NZF also registered a 3 or so points – National barely shifted & Seymour is the beneficiary of dissatisfaction there.

        That's a long, long way from a govt under "threat" and an even longer way out from where NZers view performance again and then vote next in 2023.

      • McFlock 12.1.2

        Labour dropped 9 points from 52. A level that no other poll has had them at since July 2020.

        where did the support go? Apparently half to Act, the other half to everyone else.

        2023 shouldn't be a walk in the park for anyone – Act needs to cement its gains from a single-person-party, the nats need to maintain their position as the main tory party (governing would be nice, but Act has the momentum), Labour need to stay in government, and the Greens need more leverage to drive the government left.

        • bwaghorn 12.1.2.1

          It would be nice if labour found a way to drag seymours minions into the light to see if they explode into flames or if they actually have some substance.

          • McFlock 12.1.2.1.1

            They seem to have learnt from the NZ1 crowd, and unlike the likes of Prosser have managed to keep their traps shut. Good for them.

            Lots of time between now and the election, though. They can't suppress their political beliefs forever lol

            • Gosman 12.1.2.1.1.1

              Ummmm… they were prominent in the recent Honest conversations tour of the country by the ACT caucus and in the associated policy announcements. They aren't hiding from the media or from scrutiny by the public.

              • Incognito

                Hard to scrutinise a couple of bullet points and a few slogans.

                • Gosman

                  As opposed to what exactly? Care to use an example of the sort of scrutiny you would like to see more of ? Use a National, Labour, or Green party politician to illustrate your point please.

                  • Incognito

                    LOL!

                    There’s just nothing to scrutinise there and setting up a strawman made of apples & oranges is not going to change this fact. I see you also like to move the goalposts laugh

  13. Enough is Enough 13

    Where is ACT's support coming from?

    It would be good to find out who they voted for in 2017 and 2020. My suspision is they are disgruntled Nat and NZ First voters. Which would mean National is picking up voters from Labour.

    Its a trand we need to be concerned with if it continues over the next few polls. A 6% swing over the next 12 months and its game on.

    • Gosman 13.1

      That makes little sense given National is actively trying to appeal to the right and NZ First bounced back to 3.4 % in this poll. Centre voters seem to be warming to ACT's messaging and approach to politics at the moment. They are appealing to people who previously switched between the two major political parties.

      • Enough is Enough 13.1.1

        Its all guess work though isn't it.

        I just wish Tova was less sensationalist and actualy explored those questions in a bit more depth. It is only one or two more question to answer. Who did you vote for in 2017 and who did you vote for in 2020.

      • Robert Guyton 13.1.2

        Sometimes, things said here leave me bereft of the will to go on 🙂

        "Centre voters seem to be warming to ACT's messaging and approach to politics at the moment."

  14. coreyjhumm 14

    Majority of labours vote change going to act nzf and nats is hilarious 🤣

    These are labour voters. This is exactly what people have been warning but we've been called cranks and heretics.

    The left defends free speech it debates speech we hate it doesn't cancel and ban art and ideas we fine repulsive we destroy those ideas. We've been infiltrated by a bunch of liberal tories kids who can't articulate and argument other than "my feels".

    In the last few months all I've seen from the left is defending failure and incompetence that would have seen us on the streets if nats were in, sneeringly judge and look down on working class, tradies, regional nz and basically shut down any debate on hate speech, He puapua, etc but the chickens are starting to come home.

    The pm and minister of justice moronically handling the hate speech laws in media where the refused to rule out criminalizing opinion and offense was mind numbing.

    People just want this govt after four years to focus on health specially mental health, housing, poverty and vaccine not anything else. Stop blaming national. It's four years get to it.

    If there was a credible opposition those numbers would be lower. The people are actually sick of the government. There's just nowhere to go I'd like to see the results for "noone/not going" because that's where many on the ground seem to be…

    Please get it together labour. You cannot just write off 9.7% (12-13 seats) that's enough to get most leaders rolled and if the polls keep going this way there will be a lot of nervous backbenchers.

    Housing.mental health. Poverty. Vax. Nothing else. You can't even get that done you can't be trusted with anything else until you sort that out.

    • McFlock 14.1

      I suspect it's a combination of a large poll result not reflected by other polls, with some votes apparently going left and right broadly equally, but a chunk of nat voters see Act being less fundy-chicago school and more hunty/shooty/shittywaterways than national is at the moment.

      To put it another way, if someone is jumping straight from Labour to Act… they should have done it 20-odd years ago.

      • Gosman 14.1.1

        I can confirm that people jumping straight from Labour to ACT is exactly what is happening in many cases. Even Stephen Mills acknowledged that today on RNZ's Politics segment on Nine to noon.

      • RobbieWgtn 14.1.2

        I've voted Labour since Kirk, with 2 exceptions: Bob Jones NZ Party to get Muldoon out & Key 2008 to get Helen out – both incumbents well past their used by date.

        I won't be voting Labour again in 2023. Ask yourself why.

        • McFlock 14.1.2.1

          Well, there's an obvious answer, but I'm not sure you'd agree with it as an explanation.

        • bwaghorn 14.1.2.2

          Really you voted for key despite it being obvious to anyone paying attention that they were doing anything they could to destroy Winston with there dirty tricks.

        • Patricia Bremner 14.1.2.3

          Well Robbie who cares? This government is one and a third through two terms, and will get a third as people usually want to see plans completed. They are annoying the far left and the far right who voted for them, so probably pretty balanced. They can not please everyone.

          • RobbieWgtn 14.1.2.3.1

            Jacinda had a once in a generation mandate from NZdrs to unilaterally deliver real change to the real things that matter most to real people (eg. Housing, Health, Jobs, Education, Environment, Justice…). Instead of building competence & voter confidence in these core functions of good government we have had this total sideshow for 4 years of implementing the woke hysteria and racial separatist agendas because she & Labour have been captured by the squeaky wheels they should be ignoring. Her demonstrable success in Covid management to keep NZdrs safe was only as good & as complicated as locking down the border on our islands 4000kms away from the nearest neighbour & even that simple task has been consistently mismanaged & compromised throughout the last year.

  15. Patricia Bremner 15

    Well this has "outed" the negative nellies. Just rewatch Dancing with the stars, or bring up all the statements made by Seymour. He is an opportunist, and Judith is presenting him with an opportunity. The support Labour/Greens have now in such difficult times is excellent. As programmes roll out, people will relax. Awaiting the immigration reset.

  16. Jenny how to get there 16

    The Labour Govt. will get a fourth term.

    If they can fix the housing problem.

    If they can keep covid out until we can achieve herd immunity. (another world first).

    If they can keep unemployment low.

    If they can fix the public health system.

    Richard Seddon dominated the early part of the last century as our longest serving Prime Minister .

    Jacinda Ardern may yet dominate this part of the 21st Century to overtake King Dick

    • Jenny how to get there 16.1

      Oops meant to say King Dick dominated the last part of the 19th and early 20th.

      As Ardern will likely dominate this part of the 21st

      Labour won't have to be distracted by endless media gossip and trouble making speculation about succession for a, very, very, long time.

  17. bwaghorn 17

    Nurses striking, farmers and some Maori protesting over the sna land grab , housing getting worse,slow vaccine rollout (not sure if that's labours fault personally) ,fucking around with with minor shit ike free speech and gender politics, spin it how you like were one covid out breack away from those right wing douches polling ahead. .

    • Christopher Randal 17.1

      You forgot the cycle bridge announced because a 1000 cyclists tried to cross the harbour bridge illegally.

    • WeTheBleeple 17.2

      Remember when Key ignored the 300 000 signatures against selling assets. Well, protest is fine, and a govt that acknowledges some at least will be remembered a lot more fondly than a govt that sold our (taxpayer paid for) stuff to their mates.

  18. bwaghorn 18

    Taxing utes to subsidize evs and killing off coal mining jobs in nz while importing more and more coal from overseas.

  19. Koff 19

    Good analysis of the rise in ACT and lacklustre performance of Labour since October 2020 by Gordon Campbell (http://werewolf.co.nz/2021/08/gordon-campbell-on-populisms-changing-of-the-guard-plus-a-soul-music-playlist/). Campbell accounts for the rise in ACT as due to Seymour taking over Winnie's mantle and appealing to the same section of the electorate. Personally think the prospect of an ACT led government far more depressing than a NZF led one, however impossible either scenario might seem.As Campbell points out Seymour's principles are more resonant of 40 years ago when neo liberalism was in its first full flush and Thatcherism was becoming dominant. The MSM as usual when it comes to these polls seems to convey a picture of the parties as opposing 'sports teams' without bothering to analyse the policy differences between them.

    • Robert Guyton 19.1

      "The rise of ACT" puts me in mind of methane-inflated algae breaking the surface of a sewerage pond – don't know why…

    • Gosman 19.2

      Gordon Campbell quite obviously did no research on ACT party policies here and just assumed he knew what they were. Very poor journalism.

  20. RP Mcmurphy 20

    Basically its all media twaddle. Jacinda is still accelerating and will become New Zealands Angela Merkle. The two bob tories and the die hard tories will flake off and everybody knows that but the substantive issue is none of the other parties have a leader with any credibility and the PM is still accelerating. The media hav e a fixation with fairness and taking turns but the reality is that nationals are immoral and venal and the rest are all noise and the country knows that.

  21. WeTheBleeple 21

    Funny anecdote from last night.

    Todd Muller – you remember him right? Mr Hat. Anyway, he's on Facebook complaining about his recycling bin not being big enough… and literally hundreds of people started giving him waste reduction advice.

    And here's a historic joke I wrote that many will enjoy.

    Todd's MAGA hat is causing controversy. This was a gift by the Republican Party to Todd. He's not displaying it to upset people, but to not upset the people who gave him the gift.

    You know this one. It's like when your nephew paints you a terrorist manifesto and you have to stick it on the fridge.

  22. Jenny how to get there 22

    Labour will win a fourth term if they can change this reality.

    The Side Eye

    Two New Zealands

    …..The point is, it is a system: we didn't get where we are now by accident.

    It's the result of a complex interweaving set of decisions – interest rates, immigration levels, the RMA, rental rules, regulations around buying and selling property for profit, infrastructure spending.

    But knowing we've created this means knowing we can alter it too. It doesn't have to be like this, if we have the will to make changes…..

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/the-side-eye/04-08-2021/the-side-eyes-two-new-zealands-locked-out/?

    • Jenny how to get there 22.1

      It is my opinion that what is dragging Labour Government's numbers down is their inability to get on top of the housing catastrophe.
      (Economist Bernard Hicky, says housing has gone beyond crisis to catastrophe).

      The Jackal writes a good post on the Ghost House epidemic. Here

      (Ghost Houses is an ongoing issue that has been given extensive coverage over several years at The Standard. with several posts on this issue.)

      My main critique of the Jackal's latest offering on this issue is when they speculate on the reason the government are hesitant legislate to rein in Ghost Housing:

      "…..with a considerably larger percentage of the voting public owning property compared to those renting, it really just comes down to a numbers game."

      The Jackal

      The statistic supplied by Side Eye is that there are 1.4 million renters, compared to 7,100 landlords owning more than four properties. A little confusing in that Side Eye didn't provide the figure for landlords who own less than four rental properties or only just one rental property compared to the 1.4 million renters.

      What ever that figure is, if it is a numbers game as the Jackal claims then renters out vote landlords. Admittedly a large number of low income New Zealanders have become alienated from the political system by years of neo-liberal policies that negatively impact them which ever Party they voted for. Even then I still think renters still out vote landlords.

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