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The Roy Morgan roundabout

Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, September 19th, 2015 - 17 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

The “Roy Morgan roundabout” poll has swung round to the left again, with National at 44.5% (down 6), Labour 31% (up 4) and Greens 15% (up 4).

Looking at the last 6 Roy Morgans they have alternated apparently large swings to the left and to the right. What makes the RM poll so variable?

As lefties of course we tend to beat ourselves up on the down swings, and downplay the up – so watch out for an anguished post on a Roy Morgan fall this time next month!

17 comments on “The Roy Morgan roundabout ”

  1. Freekpower 1

    Still, the upswings are becoming more frequent and higher than in previous times. I suspect JK will be leaving our political sphere at some stage in 2017 if this keeps up.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=KEY.DEPART.2017

    • Clemgeopin 1.1

      “JK will be leaving in 2017”

      I won’t be surprised if he gets pushed out in 2016. Remember the Jim Bolger and Jenny Shipley affair? Keep an eye out for the glint in the eyes and spring in the steps of some of the leading contenders in National from now on.

    • Tracey 1.2

      The Greens poll well between elections. Sadly cos I think they push actual issues amongst the BS and jellybeans, but people falte rint he booths and revert to status quo

      • It’s actually only recently that the Greens have started polling higher than they’ve performed in elections. Back when the party was nearer to 5%, they consistently underpolled compared to general elections.

        Given the relatively small variance, it’s probably just down to normal variances in the polls, as with our small sample size, any given party can be off by up to 3% in any given poll.

  2. Ad 2

    2017 comrades.
    It can be done.

  3. I think these polls need to be treated with cautious optimism. The one a fews days ago (One News?) seems to paint the opposite. Looking over the last several months there seems to be a positive trend. The opposition has gone from drowning to treading water. If they keep it up, i.e. start really presenting a positive alternative narrative (yes in know it’s hard in this media landscape), rather than attack politics, which I don’t mind but the public seem to loath, they might go to swimming confidently.

    My analogy seems too close to home also: I was caught in a rip at the beach a couple of years ago. I panicked and didn’t keep my head cool. I tried to swim back in but got tired. Fortunately, I had some friends and strangers guide me to some nearby rocks covered in all sorts of sharp stuff. It was quite scary and I was in quite a weird frame of mind for a few hours. That could have been the end of me. So, Labour and Greens, watch out for the rips, don’t be dumb, play it cool, and for the Love of God, don’t end up on the rocks! Again!

  4. AB 4

    The RMs bounce around a bit, so I think the thing to watch is the high and low points of the bounce.
    At the moment the Nats seem to bounce around between about 44% and 50%. Lab+Green bounce from about 40% up to 46%.
    The bouncing is reciprocal – as Nats hit their peak at 50% Lab+Green drop to the bottom of their range at 40%, and vice versa.
    The disappointing thing is that Lab+Green are ahead of Nats only when Lab+Green hit the top point in their range. So I think this indicates Nats probably have something like a 3-4% lead.

    What will get me excited is when the Nats whole range of bounce moves down – say if they never bounce above 47% and hit lows of 41% – that will genuinely indicate something has changed.

  5. greywarshark 5

    Anthony
    Your caption is so good. The roundabout at the fair where the horses go round, and up and down! Just like the polls. Clever.

  6. RedLogix 6

    On reflection I’d suggest this volatility in the polls is a precursor to the kind of dramatic changes in sentiment we have seen in the USA and UK lately.

    The old tribal loyalties and the blind ideological narrowness of the neo-liberal consensus are breaking down. But the process in NZ has been blocked for a decade.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      What dramatic change in sentiment has there been in the USA lately?

      If you’re referring to Sanders, he is a bit more radical than the typical contender, but he’s not going to win the nomination (Biden or Hillary will), so his success isn’t a signal of a change in sentiment, merely business as usual in the American party primary system (which does not have a parallel in any of the english speaking democracies).

      • Colonial Viper 6.1.1

        If you’re referring to Sanders, he is a bit more radical than the typical contender, but he’s not going to win the nomination (Biden or Hillary will), so his success isn’t a signal of a change in sentiment,

        The Sanders/Trump phenomenon demonstrates how desperate public sentiment is becoming. All you are describing above is the power and ability of the entrenched establishment machine to run right over that public sentiment.

  7. Treetop 7

    The Greens are the ones to watch. I can not see them going into coalition with National. Strategic voting is what will win the 2017 election.

  8. Im surprised there are people who still take any notice of these stupid gallop polls .
    The election is another two years ,Instead of watching polls the left needs to keep spreading the Labour/Green message. And anyway I never ever have been asked my view by pollsters and in fact neither have any of my close friends.
    If Labour/Greens can get their election policies out then never mind what the polls say the real poll will be positve for us .

  9. David Farrar’s not written about the poll yet. Too busy following the Rugby World Cup.

    And searching through the data so he can find something really positive to fashion a headline out of.

    Searching for a left handed one legged panel beater in the South Island who went to a charter school, who has changed from supporting Green to supporting Key.

    “Major swing in southern demographic positive for right” ? If he finds such, how will he frame the good news?

  10. Smilin 10

    When is it possible to see the way forward when the public’s most important issues like the state of our wages and child care and the rampant uncontrolled stupidity over climate change and the damage that is being done to our environment by the continual denial of the fact that much of our agricultural and primary production practises are in the long view detrimental to controlling climate change and the ecological balance of the country
    We continue to be bent and conned by the media sidetracks created and paid for by the National party ,polls to tweak indecision in the minds of the voters so that they cant decide what is real goin on in the country like the flag issue as a deferring mechanism to keep the refugee issue and our involvement in the middle east being prominent issues and whether Key is actually fit to govern this country as the issues endemic to NZ seem to be secondary to our international profile which is becoming a load of bs when you look at what is really being neglected ”Our fishing industry” for one and allowing the pollution of the Pacific to be nothing of important international political awareness on our part
    All we hear from Key and his cronies is how much the poor cost the country not how much it actually cost to work and live in this country which will sink under the weight of all the bs that the National party has created in the last 7 years
    Fuckin Polls another piece of corporate illusion what will they say next week the bloody opposite I suppose and we pay for this shit

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