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The Roy Morgan roundabout

Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, September 19th, 2015 - 17 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

The “Roy Morgan roundabout” poll has swung round to the left again, with National at 44.5% (down 6), Labour 31% (up 4) and Greens 15% (up 4).

Looking at the last 6 Roy Morgans they have alternated apparently large swings to the left and to the right. What makes the RM poll so variable?

As lefties of course we tend to beat ourselves up on the down swings, and downplay the up – so watch out for an anguished post on a Roy Morgan fall this time next month!

17 comments on “The Roy Morgan roundabout”

  1. Freekpower 1

    Still, the upswings are becoming more frequent and higher than in previous times. I suspect JK will be leaving our political sphere at some stage in 2017 if this keeps up.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=KEY.DEPART.2017

    • Clemgeopin 1.1

      “JK will be leaving in 2017”

      I won’t be surprised if he gets pushed out in 2016. Remember the Jim Bolger and Jenny Shipley affair? Keep an eye out for the glint in the eyes and spring in the steps of some of the leading contenders in National from now on.

    • Tracey 1.2

      The Greens poll well between elections. Sadly cos I think they push actual issues amongst the BS and jellybeans, but people falte rint he booths and revert to status quo

      • It’s actually only recently that the Greens have started polling higher than they’ve performed in elections. Back when the party was nearer to 5%, they consistently underpolled compared to general elections.

        Given the relatively small variance, it’s probably just down to normal variances in the polls, as with our small sample size, any given party can be off by up to 3% in any given poll.

  2. Ad 2

    2017 comrades.
    It can be done.

  3. I think these polls need to be treated with cautious optimism. The one a fews days ago (One News?) seems to paint the opposite. Looking over the last several months there seems to be a positive trend. The opposition has gone from drowning to treading water. If they keep it up, i.e. start really presenting a positive alternative narrative (yes in know it’s hard in this media landscape), rather than attack politics, which I don’t mind but the public seem to loath, they might go to swimming confidently.

    My analogy seems too close to home also: I was caught in a rip at the beach a couple of years ago. I panicked and didn’t keep my head cool. I tried to swim back in but got tired. Fortunately, I had some friends and strangers guide me to some nearby rocks covered in all sorts of sharp stuff. It was quite scary and I was in quite a weird frame of mind for a few hours. That could have been the end of me. So, Labour and Greens, watch out for the rips, don’t be dumb, play it cool, and for the Love of God, don’t end up on the rocks! Again!

  4. AB 4

    The RMs bounce around a bit, so I think the thing to watch is the high and low points of the bounce.
    At the moment the Nats seem to bounce around between about 44% and 50%. Lab+Green bounce from about 40% up to 46%.
    The bouncing is reciprocal – as Nats hit their peak at 50% Lab+Green drop to the bottom of their range at 40%, and vice versa.
    The disappointing thing is that Lab+Green are ahead of Nats only when Lab+Green hit the top point in their range. So I think this indicates Nats probably have something like a 3-4% lead.

    What will get me excited is when the Nats whole range of bounce moves down – say if they never bounce above 47% and hit lows of 41% – that will genuinely indicate something has changed.

  5. greywarshark 5

    Anthony
    Your caption is so good. The roundabout at the fair where the horses go round, and up and down! Just like the polls. Clever.

  6. RedLogix 6

    On reflection I’d suggest this volatility in the polls is a precursor to the kind of dramatic changes in sentiment we have seen in the USA and UK lately.

    The old tribal loyalties and the blind ideological narrowness of the neo-liberal consensus are breaking down. But the process in NZ has been blocked for a decade.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      What dramatic change in sentiment has there been in the USA lately?

      If you’re referring to Sanders, he is a bit more radical than the typical contender, but he’s not going to win the nomination (Biden or Hillary will), so his success isn’t a signal of a change in sentiment, merely business as usual in the American party primary system (which does not have a parallel in any of the english speaking democracies).

      • Colonial Viper 6.1.1

        If you’re referring to Sanders, he is a bit more radical than the typical contender, but he’s not going to win the nomination (Biden or Hillary will), so his success isn’t a signal of a change in sentiment,

        The Sanders/Trump phenomenon demonstrates how desperate public sentiment is becoming. All you are describing above is the power and ability of the entrenched establishment machine to run right over that public sentiment.

  7. Treetop 7

    The Greens are the ones to watch. I can not see them going into coalition with National. Strategic voting is what will win the 2017 election.

  8. Im surprised there are people who still take any notice of these stupid gallop polls .
    The election is another two years ,Instead of watching polls the left needs to keep spreading the Labour/Green message. And anyway I never ever have been asked my view by pollsters and in fact neither have any of my close friends.
    If Labour/Greens can get their election policies out then never mind what the polls say the real poll will be positve for us .

  9. David Farrar’s not written about the poll yet. Too busy following the Rugby World Cup.

    And searching through the data so he can find something really positive to fashion a headline out of.

    Searching for a left handed one legged panel beater in the South Island who went to a charter school, who has changed from supporting Green to supporting Key.

    “Major swing in southern demographic positive for right” ? If he finds such, how will he frame the good news?

  10. Smilin 10

    When is it possible to see the way forward when the public’s most important issues like the state of our wages and child care and the rampant uncontrolled stupidity over climate change and the damage that is being done to our environment by the continual denial of the fact that much of our agricultural and primary production practises are in the long view detrimental to controlling climate change and the ecological balance of the country
    We continue to be bent and conned by the media sidetracks created and paid for by the National party ,polls to tweak indecision in the minds of the voters so that they cant decide what is real goin on in the country like the flag issue as a deferring mechanism to keep the refugee issue and our involvement in the middle east being prominent issues and whether Key is actually fit to govern this country as the issues endemic to NZ seem to be secondary to our international profile which is becoming a load of bs when you look at what is really being neglected ”Our fishing industry” for one and allowing the pollution of the Pacific to be nothing of important international political awareness on our part
    All we hear from Key and his cronies is how much the poor cost the country not how much it actually cost to work and live in this country which will sink under the weight of all the bs that the National party has created in the last 7 years
    Fuckin Polls another piece of corporate illusion what will they say next week the bloody opposite I suppose and we pay for this shit

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  • Funding certainty for sports through COVID-19
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  • Butchers now allowed to process pork
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  • Essential workers leave scheme established
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  • Susan Thomas the new Chief High Court Judge
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  • Essential media COVID-19 guidelines refined
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  • Supermarkets able to open on Easter Sunday
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  • New Zealand defence personnel conclude mission at Taji
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  • State of National Emergency extended
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  • Strong Govt books support ‘go hard, go early’ response
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  • Christchurch Hospital Hagley ICU to open to support COVID-19 response
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  • Government supports Air NZ freight flights
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    6 days ago
  • Tariff concessions on COVID-19 related products
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    1 week ago
  • Clarification of modification to wage subsidy scheme
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  • Face masks flowing to DHBs
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  • COVID-19: Further steps to protect New Zealanders’ jobs
    The Government has made modifications to the wage subsidy scheme to ensure people don’t lose their jobs during the national lockdown. These changes will soften the impact of COVID-19 on workers, families and businesses, and position them to exit the lockdown and look to recovery, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. ...
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  • Tax relief for Mycoplasma Bovis farmers
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  • $27 million for NGOs and community groups to continue providing essential services
    A $27 million dollar package, effective immediately, is being provided to social sector services and community groups to ensure they can continue to provide essential support to communities as we stay at home as a nation to stop the spread of COVID-19, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced. “At ...
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  • Statement on guilty plea of March 15 terrorist
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  • COVID-19 updates
    The Prime Minister is holding daily press conferences to update New Zealanders on the Government's response to COVID-19. Links to videos and transcripts of these updates below. These transcripts also include All of Government press conferences led by Director Ministry of Health's Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 25 March: Live update from the Prime ...
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  • Police numbers break through 10,000 mark
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  • Urgent tax measures for economic recovery
    Urgent legislation has been passed to support the package of economic and social measures needed to recover from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. “The COVID-19 Response (Taxation and Social Assistance Urgent Measures) Bill will cushion New Zealanders from the worst economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Revenue Minister ...
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  • Further support for farmers and growers as drought persists
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  • COVID-19: Temporary changes to Education Act
    Parliament has passed amendments to legislation that give the Secretary of Education stronger powers to act in the fight to limit the spread of COVID-19, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “They are part of a suite of changes passed under the COVID-19 Response (Urgent Management Measures) Legislation Bill,” Chris ...
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  • Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar join NZ and Singapore in committing to keeping supply a...
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    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Rent increase freeze and more protection for tenants
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  • Working together to protect businesses and workers
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  • State of National Emergency declared to fight COVID-19
    A State of National Emergency has been declared across the country as the Government pulls out all the stops to curtail the spread of COVID-19. “Today we put in place our country’s second ever State of National Emergency as we fight a global pandemic, save New Zealanders’ lives and prevent ...
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  • Prime Minister’s statement on State of National Emergency and Epidemic Notice
    Mr Speaker I wish to make a Ministerial Statement under Standing Order 347 in relation to the recent declaration of a State of National Emergency. Having considered the advice of the Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, the Minister of Civil Defence declared a State of National Emergency for the whole of ...
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    1 week ago
  • Deadline for domestic travel extended
    People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday, Transport Minister Phil Twyford said today. Domestic passenger services, particularly ferries, have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Mortgage holiday and business finance support schemes to cushion COVID impacts
    The Government, retail banks and the Reserve Bank are today announcing a major financial support package for home owners and businesses affected by the economic impacts of COVID-19. The package will include a six month principal and interest payment holiday for mortgage holders and SME customers whose incomes have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago