The trouble with political polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:31 pm, March 30th, 2014 - 189 comments
Categories: Media - Tags: , ,

Two new polls have just been released and to be frank the results are not bad.  TV3 Reid Research has National at 45.9%, up slightly on the last poll result which seemed low, Labour on 31.2%, the Greens on 11.2% and NZ First on 4.9%.  The poll historically over reports National’s support so if I was them I would be worried.

One News Colmar Brunton’s results are similar, National is on 47% apparently down 4, Labour 31% down 3, the Greens 11% up 3, and NZ First 7%.

The results may be similar but Paddy Gower interprets the Reid Research result as vindication for National whereas the Colmar Brunton result suggests that National has shed 4% to NZ First.

Mediawatch this morning had interesting comments on polling, on the need not to ascribe slight changes to be evidence of the electorate passing judgment on an individual incident (e.g. Judith Collins), and comment was made on how National’s support tended to be overrepresented in polls.  With 20% of people not having landlines I agree.

These results suggest that the election is closer than the media would let us think it is.

189 comments on “The trouble with political polls”

  1. BM 1

    The only way the left is going to win is if you guys manage to confuse enough of the plebs with your tales of woe, doom and other assorted bits of bull shit.

    It’s going to be hard going though,I don’t think Kiwis are as dumb as you think they are, there really is quite a positive buzz out there in NZ and you can thank John Key for that, the guy is working his arse off to make NZ a better country and anyone with more than one brain cell can see that and really admires the man for that.

    • mickysavage 1.1

      So BM how do you feel with these results for National? And do you agree that National’s support tends to be overstated?

      • Akldnut 1.1.1

        “I don’t think Kiwis are as dumb as you think they are”

        The only ones who think this are Nact, you can tell that by the shit that comes from their mouths that they expect everyone to believe.

      • Neutral_Voter 1.1.2

        Micky – while you are commenting on National’s rating, the real concern is about Labour’s share. It is 31 in both polls and leader David is 8-9%. Both are going down. I think trying to find dirt on National MPs or ministers are not working and it is time Labour bring some bold policies to differentiate and articulate a vision.

        • View from the Centre 1.1.2.1

          Agree completely. It’s election year, time to stop playing the opposition games and start demonstrating why you should be brought in to govern.

        • Tracey 1.1.2.2

          take a peek at some fpp voting percentages, sometimes we were a 3 party country

        • poem 1.1.2.3

          Disagree. So you think national ministers feathering their own nests at tax payers expense should just be ignored because it doesn’t suit you Neutral _Voter? it seems no one had to dig very deep to find dirt on national, they exposed that themselves, and lying about it only made it even worse.

    • Ecosse_Maidy 1.2

      So BM from the tone of your comment ….let me guess…You are going to vote Labour?Go on BM we know you really want to..come out of the political closet

      • BM 1.2.1

        Why would any one want to vote Labour, you’d have to be a complete idiot.

        For the vast majority of people the country is fair rocking there’s so much growth and change going on it’s unreal.

        NZ is right there on the cusp of really really prosperous times, voting Labour in would just completely fuck things up and I just hope people are smart enough to see the opportunities that are ahead and stick with National at least for the next term or two.

        • mickysavage 1.2.1.1

          So BM was John Key responsible for the Christchurch earthquakes and the global financial crisis? I am sure he was not responsible for one of these events although his ilk had a major part to play in the other.

          And are you pleased that Cullen and Clark paid off all the debt so that we could have the current splurge on the country’s credit card?

          • View from the Centre 1.2.1.1.1

            With the greatest respect, I wouldn’t describe the past couple of terms as a “splurge”. Quite the opposite, seems that a majority of govt effort has been in cutting govt costs and seeking better efficiencies (whether or not those have been realised is another discussion).

            I don’t see how the govt books would have been any better with Labour at the wheel. If I’m honest, my perception of current party priorities would indicate a much worse situation in terms of debt.

            • Tracey 1.2.1.1.1.1

              view from the centre of what? you forgot the 60bn debt (and climbing) and the tax take dropping or the last few mobths

              at least you didnt say you used to vote labour and then have to come back and say nit was in the 80s.

              • View from the Centre

                And your point is what?

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  That “splurge” is a perfectly good description of voluntarily cutting one’s own revenue and making up the difference by borrowing, although “incompetence” might be a better one?

                  The IMF got the memo that slashing government spending depresses the economy. You were asleep perhaps?

                  • Tracey

                    that he doesnt get the point makes me wonder if his surname isEnglish

                  • View from the Centre

                    I assume you’re referring to the asset sales program, and yes I do agree that I have wondered if it stacks up economically (forget arguments driven by ideology). I’ve seen plenty of narrow arguments one way or the other, but nothing that states how much money was made, what the overall costs were (incl loss of income from dividends), and after how many years will it take for any benefits from a reduction in debt be overtaken by the accumulated loss of income.

                    In the short term though, like over the past couple of years, you can’t tell me that additional borrowing has been necessary due to asset sales (or maybe you can). Quite the opposite given the money made far exceeds the short-term costs and loss of income.

                    • McFlock

                      I’ve seen plenty of narrow arguments one way or the other, but nothing that states how much money was made, what the overall costs were (incl loss of income from dividends), and after how many years will it take for any benefits from a reduction in debt be overtaken by the accumulated loss of income.

                      Really? Try here to start your research.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Bzzt! Wrong! I was referring to tax (aka “revenue”) and spending cuts – you know, the spending (aka “government costs”) cuts you cited in your original comment. Hence the “slashing government spending” part of my comment.

                      And yes, asset sales were incompetent too.

          • Bazar 1.2.1.1.2

            “And are you pleased that Cullen and Clark paid off all the debt so that we could have the current splurge on the country’s credit card?”

            Hahaha, thats so wrong its made me laugh.
            Well played.

            The older 2008 becomes, the greater clark’s crumbling empire was.

            We still had debt at the end of her elections.
            Yes we had less government debt, but private debt skyrocketed under her reign. Correlation?

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:New_Zealand_overseas_debt_1993-2010.svg

            As for our borrowing, you seem to think National’s policy is to borrow and spend as much as possible.
            Its been nothing of the sort, you seem to be thinking of Labour’s policies, back when they actually HAD policies.

            National was about reducing crown expenses slowly, and letting the economy recover naturally, while minimizing crown borrowing.
            Labour was about borrow and spending to revitalize the depressed economy.

            Seems National picked correctly, we now have a strong growing economy, and are likely to hit a surplus within a year or two.
            Australia which went with their labour policy of spending to revitalize their economy is now looking at $47 billion deficit for the coming year, and dealing with about 0.8% gdp growth, compared to our 3% growth.

            Final note.
            I dont’ plan on checking the responses. My post stands by itself, and I only ever get ad-hom attacks, and leftwings circle jerking one another to prove me wrong by consensus, rather then facts. (As can be seen with responces to BM, or anyone who defies the leftwing mantra)

            • mickysavage 1.2.1.1.2.1

              Bazar.

              Like I said, crown debt was paid off. If Helen and Michael had stopped individuals from borrowing ludicrous amounts of money then there would have been hell to pay. So are you advocating that Helen and Michael should have defloated the dollars and applied currency restrictions? Regulated the banks’ ability to lend?

              Good luck with that.

              As for National’s policies well debt has gone from less than 10 billion to over 80 billion in a short time. Growth has slowed.

              Don’t check if you like. I am just surprised how many RWNJs insist that they know best but then refuse to debate the details …

              • Ergo Robertina

                ‘So are you advocating that Helen and Michael should have defloated the dollars and applied currency restrictions? Regulated the banks’ ability to lend?
                Good luck with that.’

                Actually, that would have been helpful, and the latter would not have even been difficult politically. I remember many people during that period dismayed at the rate of house price inflation, and the tales of 110% mortgages and so on. Those on six figure salaries like politicians probably didn’t notice (although they should have noticed the wage pressures).
                We would not be in such a fix with housing affordability if we regulated the banks’ ability to lend during the boom years.
                You seem to imply the job of politicians is to appease the financial sector.

              • col

                You say 80 Billion, can you help me and show how National have obtained this debt over a short period, also what is a short period, 2 years 5 years, would be interested too see the results, as you say no one wants too debate the facts, so please tell?

                [lprent: Pretty obvious how they got it. They borrowed it over the last 5 years.

                If you want the detail then dig into the treasury reports about debt from this place downwards. A combination of falling revenues and increased costs.

                http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/financialstatements/yearend/jun13/005.htm

                Are you really as thick, gormless and ineffectual enough to not be able to do a simple google search as your comment appears to indicate. A simple search for “nz government debt” popped these up in the first 10 results.

                Mickey was slightly off. Nz Government debt’s low point was about 15 billion in 2007, and peaked at just over 79 billion in 2012. Last year they managed to ‘decrease’ it to just under 78 billion, but only because of asset sales. Which of course meant that the governments nett debt increased by more than 5 billion because they made such a arse of selling their assets at bargain basement values. Only a moron like Bill English would sell nett revenue generating assets at the bottom of the market.

                Try again to convince me that you are in fact a thinking human. So far you look like some kind of code written in basica. ]

        • Whateva next? 1.2.1.2

          Why would anyone want to try and help you understand B.M? Seems like a waste of energy to me

          • BM 1.2.1.2.1

            Help me understand?.

            Christ, it’s the numpties on this site that need the sing songs and picture books, not me.

            • Ecosse_Maidy 1.2.1.2.1.1

              Dear BM,

              Could I borrow your John Keys join the dots picture book that doubles as a political manifesto and your National sing along c.d. I need something to fuel the fire

            • Whateva next? 1.2.1.2.1.2

              Beneath you eh?

        • McFlock 1.2.1.3

          For the vast majority of people the country is fair rocking there’s so much growth and change going on it’s unreal.

          it is indeed unreal.

        • Andrew Cox 1.2.1.4

          BM. Must be those synthetics your on – puts you right out there on planet key

        • Psycho Milt 1.2.1.5

          For the vast majority of people the country is fair rocking there’s so much growth and change going on it’s unreal.

          NZ is right there on the cusp of really really prosperous times, voting Labour in would just completely fuck things up…

          It’s pretty stupid to ascribe economic performance to the government, but what the hell – if you want to be that stupid, then looking at NZ’s economic performance over the last two governments we can say that Labour does a better job than National by a huge margin.

          • BM 1.2.1.5.1

            Big difference is before we were just coat tailing it.

            Now everyone else is still in the doldrums while we’re fair rocking along, that you can put down to John Key and National.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 1.2.1.5.1.1

              Earthquake rebuild and milk powder prices, you Bellman fool.

            • Psycho Milt 1.2.1.5.1.2

              Now everyone else is still in the doldrums while we’re fair rocking along, that you can put down to John Key and National.

              I can? Rather than putting it down to facts like our banks are Australian and didn’t collapse, the previous government paid down our public debt, milk prices are high and there’s huge expenditure on the Christchurch rebuild, I should put it down to John Key and National? Do you have some reasons to offer, or is it just an article of faith?

              • You_Fool

                Of course you can put it down to John Key and National!

                1) Key was part of the idiots that ruined the global economy in the first place, which allowed for something to be “fixed”

                2) National has sold our souls to china to ensure our milk powder is sold there and destroyed all environmental protections and worker protection to ensure that our milk industry looks positive

                This makes the economy appear “rocking” and it is for the top 1-10%, who are now doing there best to convince the next 50-60% that they too can have the same opportunities and share in the wealth so that they are distracted from the cries of woe from the bottom 30-50% who have been absolutely screwed over by this government and are now vilified by the top 10% to further their own agendas to take all the wealth.

                So yes, the current state of affairs is all National’s fault, and they should reap the rewards that they deserve later in the year. (Hint, i am thinking more Bastille day)

        • Tracey 1.2.1.6

          by vast majority you dont mean the 50% of kiwis earning under $22 per hour?

          those on pensions in auckland struggling to love and be warm after rent is paid?

    • Graeme 1.3

      You are already living on planet Key. There are a lot of us in NZ that see him as a devious currency trader who has bought off a blinkered, self serving middle class. He has deceived the country over the GCSb. Sold state assets in a garage sale that has not dented his blown out deficit. Surrounded himself with low rate toadies like John banks (currently facing electoral fraud charges) and Peter Dunne to hold his majority. Lied about a consensus on MMP, ignoring a citizens referendum in the process. Yes, we all love the bloke

      • James 1.3.1

        Graham,

        Looking at the poll results for preferred PM – there seem to be a lot of people who like Planet Key.

        Not not so many liking the idea of Planet Labour.

        • Anne 1.3.1.1

          18% undecided. Wow. That’s getting close to one in five people don’t know who they’re going to vote for. Has it ever been as high as that before?

          • Lanthanide 1.3.1.1.1

            How long are we going to have to wait until Labour really get their ball rolling, announce central economic policies and convert all these people?

        • Francis 1.3.1.2

          Looking at the poll results for preferred PM – there seem to be a lot of people who like Planet Key.

          Which would matter if this were a presidential election. Not quite so much in a parliamentary election, where you’re voting for a party, not a person…

          • Jim Nald 1.3.1.2.1

            Both the party- and leader-in-waiting are crucial.

            The excitement was palpable right after the outcome of the leadership contest with the emphasis on TARA and the temperature felt like it was going hot up.

            But then came TINA on the super age increase (yet another elitist kind of policy along the lines of we-know-better, we-know-what-is-good-for-you and we-know-you-don’t-like-it-but-we’re-going-to-do-it-to-you-anyway’ from the same old Labour, said a work mate), the loss of momentum in the run-up to what should have been a big bang before Christmas (blame Len Brown for filling up the news … and also a still new team of key staff being formed around the Leader?) … and what else? …

            Oh, while fresh from yesterday’s nationwide demo, Labour needs to sort out the messaging on TPPA. Sitting on the fence of wait-and-see-the-text-that-needs-to-be-released-at-least-two-weeks-before-signing-the-agreement would better suit a somnambulistic campaign.

        • poem 1.3.1.3

          Who said the poll results are true James? maybe there are more people who are fed up and hate living on planet key than you care to admit.

          • james 1.3.1.3.1

            Poem,

            Ill go with the good ‘ol *citation needed with you.

            I can site many, many, many polls from a variety of polling companies to back up my argument.

            • poem 1.3.1.3.1.1

              Well its just cold comfort to the likes of you to cling to polls that are fickle at best. Polls are flawed and unreliable and they were certainly wrong as the 2011 election results showed James.

              • James

                So nothing from you other than saying polls are unreliable. Cool story bro.

                • felix

                  err, poem cited the 2011 election results (which differed wildly from the polls) as evidence to support his statement that polls are unreliable.

                  I can understand why you’d want to dismiss it, but it works better if you at least pretend to address the point made.

                  • poem

                    It was just a good example felix. and what point was that? how a right winger like James clings to fickle polls? They certainly cry foul the loudest when the polls swing the other way dont they? Its ridiculous to take polls as gospel, the only one that really matters is election day. Until then its just conjecture an supposition.

                    • felix

                      I think you may have misread me. I was trying to explain your excellent point to our mutual and slow-witted friend James.

                • poem

                  I asked you who said the polls are true James, and all I got from you was a line that you have the backing of many many polls from a variety of polling companies, well thats not very convincing. Knock yourself and prove it then.

            • Tracey 1.3.1.3.1.2

              one thing to consider is the difference between polls between elections and the election results. someone, swordfish(?) has done and posted a table showing national has polled 4-7% lower on election day compared to polls.

              • poem

                yes Tracey I remember reading that. Polls are not very reliable and are fickle at best !!!

        • Tracey 1.3.1.4

          and yet… despite the popularity trumpetted widely by the right of the pm, when you combine green and labour votes in the polls its going to be very close.

      • Cancerman 1.3.2

        [Too far comment deleted – MS]

        • felix 1.3.2.1

          Cancerman that is an extremely anti-semitic comment, and phrasing it as a question makes it no less so.

          Utterly disgusting.

        • Huginn 1.3.2.2

          Cancerman
          That’s a disgraceful, anti-semitic connection to make.Incredibly offensive.
          What the fuck is going on with you and why do you think it’s ok to share these shitty thoughts with us?

          • Cancerman 1.3.2.2.1

            I’m sorry but the attacks on John Key being a “devious banker” I believe are just dog whistle attacks and you are correct are unacceptable anti semitism. That is may point.

            • felix 1.3.2.2.1.1

              So somebody said “devious bankers” and you immediately assumed they were talking about jews.

              You’re the racist dogwhistler, mate. Everyone else is disgusted.

            • Huginn 1.3.2.2.1.2

              Cancerman
              Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

              We really mean ‘devious bankers’ when we say ‘devious bankers’.

          • Cancerman 1.3.2.2.2

            I’m sorry but the attacks on John Key being a “devious banker” I believe are just dog whistle attacks and you are correct are unacceptable anti semitism. That is my point.

            • thatguynz 1.3.2.2.2.1

              Fool. John Key is a banking lapdog scumbag. Any religious alignment is completely irrelevant bumf. Your ability to join the dots should have been left at kindergarten.

            • Tracey 1.3.2.2.2.2

              are you saying all bankers and currency traders are jewish? citation needed.

              my bank manager is tangatawhenua.

              • felix

                Nah he’s saying all the devious ones are.

              • Cancerman

                The use of “devious bankers” or underhanded lender is a common stereotype used to frame Jews. You wanted more to back up my claims that “bankers” are used to infer jew then follow the link.

                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_antisemitism#Stereotypes_and_canards

                Now for everyone to deny that this hasn’t been a historical tactic is to lie. To say that you didn’t mean to infer that link maybe be true but in that case prehaps you should be more careful and thoughtful in your attacks on John Key, because to me them seem extremely racist.

                • felix

                  You’re the only one who made the link.

                  You’re the racist.

                  • Cancerman

                    Yes your absolutely right. I’m the only one who made the link even though there is a whole wiki page on it and years of history. Yes someone who supports John Key is also a raving anti semite. Your quite right.

                    I know racism when I see it and I think I have made myself more than clear.

                    • felix

                      “Yes your absolutely right. I’m the only one who made the link even though there is a whole wiki page on it and years of history.”

                      No, dipshit. You’re the only one who made the link to that history in the context of the comment you pretended to be outraged about.

                      “Yes someone who supports John Key is also a raving anti semite.”

                      Yep. Why not? Oh that’s right, because you’re trying to define him for the purpose of an argument by an aspect of his public persona that no-one else seems to either notice or give a shit about.

                      Fact: He’s devious.

                      Fact: He’s a currency trader.

                      Bullshit: We’re not allowed to mention those two facts in the same sentence because occasionally, when it suits him (and he’s not busy claiming to be a christian and/or an atheist), he claims a family connection to an ancient middle-eastern religion which carries a few stereotypes about what Key actually does in real life.

                      “I know racism when I see it and I think I have made myself more than clear.”

                      Yes you have. Crystal.

      • You_Fool 1.3.3

        He didn’t lie about the lack of consensus on MMP reform, he just implied it was the opposition that opposed for some reason, when it was National and Act that opposed the changes because it would mean they would not be able to do their dirty backroom deals anymore.

        Oh also ignoring referendum is ok because Labour did it first, even if it was really National that ignored the pro-child beating referendum.

    • Te Reo Putake 1.4

      BM, kudos for acknowledging the possibility of a Labour led victory. I know that must have been quite the dead rat for you. And Bravo! for the optimistic description of Key’s work habits. You may be the only Kiwi that thinks Key works anything like hard; ‘relaxed’ might describe it better. And how quaint that you think his meagre efforts are devoted to making NZ a better country. That’s so sweet! So very devoted.

    • Macro 1.5

      BM
      I was in Hamilton yesterday to support the anti TPPA rally and while I was in the Garden Centre a young woman handed me a home printed flyer. Here is some of what it had to say:

      “Hamilton Homeless
      Volunteer Community Organisation
      Non profit non government organisation made up of volunteer workers who feel a community responsibility

      The people we seek out to help are those who are in need of support from their community. Some of them have fallen through the mental health act, some are elderly, some are young runaways, some have no stable income, and some are on housing waiting lists. This is not an ideal situation for anyone. It is a failure in our system.

      As a community we want to make a difference

      We want to make things better, with a warm meal and some extra clothing and bedding we hope to give the foundation blocks for a better outlook on life. ….

      Our Primary functions
      1. To locate food and then feed the poor and homeless at 6.30 pm every evening from monday to sunday (currently we are feeding around 60-70 people on an average night)
      2 to find and distribute clothing and bedding
      3 fund raise for these activities.

      …..”
      This is in your major city BM – the result of the ” brighter future”
      What are you doing about it?

    • thatguynz 1.6

      “John Key working his arse off to make NZ a better country”… Dear christ BM, listen to yourself you sycophantic lunatic..

      We need better wingnuts..

    • Tracey 1.7

      rofl

      if you were a racehorse youd need blinkers to stay on track and not be frightened by those around you.

  2. John 2

    Either way you intepret it, Labour is fucked. You are talking shit, you will not see the light of day come 2014 election.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      Interesting comment John. You seem to be a first time commenter. What has made you want to share your wisdom?

      • bad12 2.1.1

        A bad case of a mal-functioning bowel might have had ‘john’ joining us tonight micky…

      • Graeme 2.1.2

        He had to share it because it was going to overflow his brain. brilliant right wing insight, with intellect like that working for them the left really is buggered.

    • Clemgeopin 2.2

      But you on the other hand will need Winston first. Ha, ha!

    • You_Fool 2.3

      If by fucked, you mean will have to cut a deal with the Greens and probably Winston First then yes, I guess they are fucked. But then by that logic every government since 1996 was fucked, which to my mind is an excellent way to describe the current situation.

  3. Ecosse_Maidy 3

    Dear John,

    I cant quite get the well thought out political point you are trying to make.Could you dumb it down a bit further for me please?

    • Te Reo Putake 3.1

      Heh! Better rightie spammers required, I reckon.

    • Anne 3.2

      After careful analysis, I think this is what John was trying to say Ecosse_Maidy

      Whether you look at it from above or from underneath Labour is having a bit of the old ‘how’s your father’. Somebody isn’t happy about it and that person isn’t going to see the dawn come the 2104 election. John doesn’t say so, but I presume its because that someone will still be asleep.

  4. Chooky 4

    It would be interesting to have a poll on 1.)who lies to the pollsters at every opportunity… 2.)or lies to suit themselves…. 3.)or deliberately lies to skew the results ….and 4.) how many refuse to answer pollsters

    I guess such a poll would be rather difficult if not impossible to carry out…smirk…and I guess it significantly affects the polls

    1.)…after all pollstering is a business…you should be paid for your opinion…why give them something for free?

    2.) who knows who paid for the poll?…it might be the party you hate the most ( and do you really want to help them with your opinion?)

    3.)…with John Key and the GCSB listeneing in one can not be too careful what one says……lol..it may be used against you in the future .

    …as Jim Bolger said …something along these lines …. “Bugger the Pollsters” …and “BUgger the Polls”

    …and I might add …..bugger statistics on who is going to vote what

    • mickysavage 4.1

      Colmar Brunton undecideds jumped 5% points to 18%. This suggests that a few people had their preferences shaken and considering the time that the poll was taken I think this is more reason for Key to be concerned.

      And year, bugger the pollsters. The trouble is that when they become the story analysis of policy and what the country needs disappears.

      • kerry 4.1.1

        Not quite ,the undecided were 13% , 5% refused to state who they were voting for.

      • Huginn 4.1.2

        undecideds jumping 5% points to 18%, yeah . . . interesting times

      • James 4.1.3

        You make poor assumptions.

        You assume that the jump from 5% to 18% are all Nats.

        Could just as well be Labour / Green voters who are happy with the direction of the country and dont want Cunliffe as PM.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 4.1.3.1

          Green voters who are happy with the way the National Party is ruining the country. That seems infinitely likely. Almost a certainty. Full of juicy truthiness.

      • Tracey 4.1.4

        national tends to get 4-7% less vote on election day compared to the polls and today greens/labour combined are verand gower interprets it as good news for national.y very close to national…

    • bad12 4.2

      Its a pity Chooky that we didn’t get to see exactly what questions ‘the pollsters’ asked of the respondents,

      There are many ways of prepping respondents by asking them a series of questions which portray a political party in a negative light to the respondent befor their actual voting choices are sought,

      Even the Herald’s John Armstrong pointed out in one column,(sorry havn’t got a link), that He knew of one ‘poll’ that does exactly that…

      • Chooky 4.2.1

        yes the biggest risk is that people believe the polls ( the statistics) and think the election is already decided…. and then on that basis decide not to vote

        ….so polls are actually a marketing tool for political parties…and a dangerous one

        • bad12 4.2.1.1

          Chooky, agree with your analysis 100%, that’s the elephant in the room, and, hopefully Labour/Green have a lot more feet on the ground this election which will serve to somewhat balance the books against such ‘created’ bias/negativism…

  5. Ecosse_Maidy 5

    BM going by your comments one would think the National Party planned that earthquake in Christchurch…Given that that is what is propelling the growth figures in this country.Now I know John Key thinks he’s god almighty..however I don’t think his power has extended to that level as yet.

    P.S BM are you and John related from the same…small gene pool?

    • Matthew Archer 5.1

      Although there is a youtube video of him stating twice that the earthquake was man made?!?!?!

    • Jimmie 5.2

      Christchurch earthquake driving growth? Hmmm so is all of Fonterra’s milk production coming from Canterbury – I don’t think so.

      All the other primary industry showing elevated exports and manufacturing expanding for 18 months in a row – are they all based in Christchurch? No

      Christchurch rebuild is part of it but not the whole – crap news for the doom and gloom lefties around but ya gotta face the facts that NZ inc is starting to hum.

      • mickysavage 5.2.1

        Yep milk prices are good, or were at least last year. And Key is responsible for this how?

        • Jimmie 5.2.1.1

          Probably not at all micky however Key is still going to get some political benefit from it – man it sucks to be a leftie this year….

          • mickysavage 5.2.1.1.1

            It seems that every RWNJ when making a comment must express perfect optimism in the result and under no circumstances should they express any doubt …

            • Jimmie 5.2.1.1.1.1

              Hmmm pot calling the kettle black.

              Your whole post here is doing exactly this. A couple of polls come out and the results aren’t great reading for Labour. (Esp preferred PM) You then mutter and mumble your way through the post and come to a conclusion that the two polls show that the election is going be closer than anyone thinks.

              Perfect example of extreme optimism in the face of the results and no expression of doubt….

              The trouble is mickey is this exactly same paradigm of faith in the leadership/parties of the left which was also evident before the 2008 & 2011 elections. It shut down proper and pragmatic debate on the left and the resulting election results were somewhat of a shock to the leftie faithful.

              As has been said many times, ‘doing the same thing and expecting different results is on definition of insanity.’

              Will it change after Sept 2014? Probably not.

              • mickysavage

                Come on Jimmy. We have had months of how National can rule on its own and now a couple of polls that favour National show that it is well short.

                Dress it us as much as you want. National now has to find mates. And if it sheds any more support according to these figures it is vulnerable. And it is probably 3% points shy of this result so its only option is Winston.

                Good luck with that.

        • Huginn 5.2.1.2

          Milk prices may be good, but look at this from the Financial Times:

          Fonterra profits sour as those of China Mengniu Dairy jump
          By Jamie Smyth in Canberra and Reuters

          The diverging fortunes of Asia-Pacific’s dairy groups came into the spotlight on Wednesday when New Zealand’s Fonterra reported a halving in first-half profits, while China Mengniu Dairy said 2013 profit jumped by a quarter year-on-year.

          Fonterra, the world’s biggest milk supplier, reported a 53 per cent dive in interim profits in spite of record-high global milk prices and surging demand, as the New Zealand co-operative struggled to contain costs amid a shortage of milk processing capacity.

          http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81993d52-b46b-11e3-bac4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xRjDCT00

      • Mark 5.2.2

        I hate to break the news to you Jimmy but National are absolutely stuffed in Ch-Ch. Read what ever you like into Nz polls but their complete and utter balls up of the Ch-Ch rebuild means they are going to get dealt to in Ch-Ch. I don’t know how that will play out nationally but in this town their brand is utterly and totally stuffed.

  6. McFlock 6

    […] the need not to ascribe slight changes to be evidence of the electorate passing judgment on an individual incident […]

    Which is anathema to a news industry that requires immediate and dramatic action to preseve ratings.

  7. Naki Man 7

    Captain cock- up has had a shocker, 8% that is lower than Shearer. Labours smear campaign has bitten them in the arse.

    • mickysavage 7.1

      This will be the right wing line. Never mind that National cannot rule on its own account, lets attack the leadership statistics. David’s current leadership ratings puts him ahead of Helen Clark at the same time of her career …

      • BM 7.1.1

        So another six years in opposition and then PM?,

        • mickysavage 7.1.1.1

          BM

          You have not answered my earlier question.

          National is now well short of a majority and it has no mates. How is it going to succeed? And 6 years? Please …

          Why do RWNJs have complete and utter confidence in future events when the reality is that anything can happen?

          • BM 7.1.1.1.1

            Basically this election boils down to the workers vs the bludgers.

            Clark did a tremendous amount of damage to the country but I have faith in NZ that there’s still enough productive people left here who can see the big picture to get National over the line.

            National, the only sane choice.

            • mickysavage 7.1.1.1.1.1

              You still have not answered my question. You have posted a statement that is culturally deeply insensitive to the trade union movement and to the Party responsible to the Social Security system.

              You also have a stupid comment about Helen that completely lacks any sort of analysis or understanding of the complexities involved.

              You then post a comment that the Soviet Union would be proud of.

              How about answering my question. National is now well short of a majority and has no mates.

              Why do RWNJs have complete and utter confidence in future events when the reality is that anything can happen?

              • BM

                You also have a stupid comment about Helen that completely lacks any sort of analysis or understanding of the complexities involved.

                What, she became labour leader in 1993 and was elected PM in1999?

                Cunliffe is very similar to Clark in the fact that he’s not really a people person and it will take a long time for the public to warm to him.

                I’d say six years would be about right.

                • mickysavage

                  You are not answering my question.

                  To repeat … National is now well short of a majority and has no mates.

                  Why do RWNJs have complete and utter confidence in future events when the reality is that anything can happen?

                  • Monty

                    Ok Micky, I’ll have a crack. national has the most popular leader and prime minister in generations. Everything is going well for National and has caalition partners in Dunne and act. Act have reinvented themselves and could be good for over 1.2%.

                    Winston is the interesting one. At 69 and with a life time of smoking and drinking catching up this is possibly his last crack. Winston will not want to play third fiddle to Cunliffe and the greens when he has the chance to play second fiddle to John key. Winston will want his legacy to be remembered as helping a stable government instead of destroying three governments. Winston understands that a government made up of labour MPs many of whom are lightweight , together with inexperienced and far left Parties of the greens and even mana/ internet party is a disaster waiting to happen. I think therefore it is labour and he greens who have little electoral choices in delivering a stable government to NZ. Especially when labour have a deeply unpopular leader with only 8% support of he public.

                    • McFlock

                      well, ACT have the incest vote, so that might get them to 1.2%.

                      Seriously, you reckon BM’s crowing comes from key getting the support of Peters?

                      Doesn’t surround like anything to crow about to me.

                    • Tracey

                      the issue is that despite having a very popular leader they arecpolling 45-48%. an issue because historically election day votes for national are 4-7% below their polling.

                      the right make a mistake if they view this as nats versus labour. its nats versus greens/labour. that co,bination is very close to nationals polling despite the very popular mr key.

                  • srylands

                    Not sure what a RWNJ is but anyway..

                    Yes anything could happen. With the election nearly 6 months away Labour and Greens could well win and form government. However, currently, that seems much less likely than National being returned.

                    The Prime Minister is immensely popular. The economy is booming. Labour’s recent policy announcements have fallen flat.

                    National does have coalition options. ACT is likely to get 2 seats. Plus P Dunne.

                    Nothing is a certainty. Labour/Greens currently have about a 25% chance of winning.

                    One guide to keep an eye on is Centrebet. Betting markets provide extremely reliable indicators of election outcomes.

                    http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/33137/1/51371930X.pdf

                    And the current Centrebet odds say it all right now.

                    http://centrebet.com/#Sports/7145959

                    One factor that you just don’t get is that the reason the Government is so popular is that it is a Centre-Left government. That is what New Zealanders want and that is what they now have. That leaves Labour and the Greens only two choices – a move to the Left (Plan A – what you see now) or a coalition with National. That could be on the cards if they lose both the 2014 and 2017 elections.

                    So spin all you like. The odds right now heavily favour a return of the Government.

                    • McFlock

                      people with money to waste on gambling think national will win?
                      Big fucking surprise. People with money to waste thought Louis VI was popular, too. The nice thing about democracy is that the comeuppance that always follows hubris is a bit more civilised these days.

                    • Tracey

                      labour + greens = national

                      dunne + epsom = national

                      hone = labour

                      mp = national (or political oblivion)

                      nz first = whoever gives winston the ministerial post he wants

                      national election day % usually lower than polling

                      25% chance sounds very low for someone trying to be all rational and analytical about it all…

                    • Tracey

                      mcflock

                      dont forget match fixing 😉

              • Tracey

                because this one uses slater as his prophet

            • You_Fool 7.1.1.1.1.2

              [quote]Basically this election boils down to the workers vs the bludgers.[/quote]

              Yes, you are completely right, this election will be down to the bludgers who think wealth is everything and their privileged is a ‘god’ given right, v the workers who are struggling through this ‘brighter future’ and ‘rockstar economy’ and wonder when the good times will come to them.

    • Whateva next? 7.2

      Smear campaign you say?

  8. dave 8

    south Auckland land lines no longer exist in terms of contacting people

    • srylands 8.1

      Why? What happened to South Auckland landlines?

      • You_Fool 8.1.1

        They can’t afford them anymore because the “brighter future” promised by national is for other people, not the workers according to NAct’s policies and so called leadership

        • Naki Man 8.1.1.1

          “They can’t afford them anymore because the “brighter future” promised by national is for other people, not the workers according to NAct’s policies and so called leadership”
          Can’t afford a land line, Bollocks. These people have cell phones so they don’t need a landline.
          Funny how they all can afford sky tv.

          • felix 8.1.1.1.1

            Yeah Sth Auckland people all have sky tv. That’s just a fact.

            Hey Pete, can you check that for me please? It sounds legit but I’m just not totally convinced.

  9. For some reason, the TV3 poll has graphics that give the Conservatives seats in the house (one gives them two, the other 3). This seems odd, unless the assumption is being made that they will be gifted an electorate seat.

    • That was the assumption Gower was making on 3News last night – managed to turn the Nats from a losing position to a comfortable majority by assuming multiple seats for the Conservatives and ACT.

  10. captain hook 10

    shifty is like a pimple that is coming to a head and when it pops then goodbyeee national.

  11. In the Colmar Brunton poll, only 767 people expressed a counted party preference (out of 1003) – figures are in the downloadable report. That compares with between 820 and 862 in the previous five Colmar Brunton polls.

    That fleshes out the growth in the ‘undecided/refused’ percentage. If correct, fluidity is starting to appear. That would be consistent with another point made by an academic on Mediawatch today. The party in the lead at the start of the year tends to have a reduction in its support by the time of the election.

    • mickysavage 11.1

      Yep. During the Collins Parata Adams weeks from hell I would think that the increase in undecideds/did not declare from 13% to 18% is very significant.

      The trouble with the media/blog debate is that responses are expected to be instantaneous. My strong impression is that it is a gradual withering of enthusiasm and support and then anything is possible.

  12. Tanz 12

    oh dear, not another three more years of National. No, no, no. Australia is looking good…

    • You_Fool 12.1

      Have you seen who they elected in at the last election? Makes Aussie a less attractive option… maybe England

  13. Clemgeopin 13

    Based on recent polls including the two today, my estimate/calculation is that if an election was held today, the party votes would be close to the following figures:

    National……………..42.9
    Labour……………….31.8
    Greens………………10.6
    NZ First………………8.5
    Maori Party…………..1.1
    Mana…………………..1.0
    ACT……………………0.6
    Conservatives………..1.9
    Internet Party………..0.5
    United Future…………0.1
    Others…………………1.0

    Please do not pay much attention to my figures as it is based on calculations and not actual polling, but not from wishful thinking either.

    I have based my calculations taking into consideration the actual election results in previous elections compared to the various published polls just prior to the elections.

    I hope you agree that all these media polls differ quite widely from one to the other, even respecting the margin of error. These media polls are extrapolated from a small sample of about 700 to 900 compared to the millions of actual votes and yet undecideds.

    What I am estimating is logically done, purely out of my own interest. I may be completely wrong of course. I am hoping my figures will be pretty good. Time will tell. Fingers crossed.

    If I am far wrong, you could say, in the words of Mr Jim Bolger, ‘Bugger the pollsters’ to find some solace for disappointment!

    • Monty 13.1

      I am always amused that when people,look at the polls leading up the election and use that to make a calculation on election support they do so on the basis of national sport dropping away but don’t acknowledge that labour support also dropped away. In fact it dropped away in 2011 to give labour their worst Election Day support ever.

      • McFlock 13.1.1

        really? What was the last average or individual poll result for national compared to their actual ballot result, and the same for labour?

        here.

        National over-rated before the election by a couple of percent in the last polls before the election, while 2/3 of those polls undercounted labour (including one 4% undecount).

        So assuming that polls in general over-rate national and under-rate Labour seems pretty fair.

        • Monty 13.1.1.1

          Fair enough. I do remember he whole cup of tea saga ( non event beat up that it was) suddenly giving Winston a lift. I am certain thatNational will run a very tight ship this time around and ensure that there is nothing of a repeat. Still at this point I am very comfortable where the Nats are sitting. It is the left that are in trouble. And their policies when released will be subject to detailed scrutiny. The left won’t be able to promise spend and hope. Here will be no assets sales, and the economy is doing great.

          While on the left I am struggling to see what policy will be the much needed game changer. And the left desperately need their game changer. As my mate slater says, there have been plenty of game change policies and all have fallen flat. And what is better from my perspective is that like it is not 92% of the population do not want Cunliffe as PM. How is he going to climb that mountain?

          • McFlock 13.1.1.1.1

            Meh. He doesn’t have to.

            Really, his party only need to get a few more points in the campaign, and greens remain constant, and winston isn’t even needed. And that’s assuming that the polls don’t consistently under-report labour and over-report national.

            The last two elections of lab5 saw labour run full terms ingovernment after getting 41% of the vote.

            National can’t even dream to do the same, and there’s many an oravida/novapay between now and september…

      • ScottGN 13.1.2

        Monty your statement is simply not true. Take a look at the graphs Karol has posted at the bottom of this thread. Labour’s election night result in 2011 (while not ideal) was either at or above what they were polling across all major polls in the last days of the campaign. National’s support meanwhile was up to 5% lower on the day than polls suggested. It seems to me that this overstatement of National’s support has been consistent across all major polls since the mid 2000s at least.

        • Clemgeopin 13.1.2.1

          I think that the reason why National’s poll support gets shown exaggerated while Labour’s get shown lower is due to the somewhat faulty polling methodology where they are simply unable to get a ‘true’ random sample. The methodology tends to leave out, in the words of Key, the ‘underclass’ disproportionately.

    • thechangeling 13.2

      NZ First is the kingmaker again. Nothing new so far.

  14. Once was Pete 14

    What has to be a concern is the very noticeable slide in David Cunliffe’s standing as preferred pm. With the trend to more presidential style campaigning (which probably became more obvious in the second Clark term) a leader polling this low should be of great concern within the labour party.
    As for the rest of the poll results – who really knows this far out. All it will take is some gaffe, faux pas or scandal to move the result significantly either way.

  15. David 15

    It’s a shocker of a poll, the wrong leader was picked and that is clear. Labour has been languishing at this level for 6 years and it’s solution is lurch further left ! It’s insanity. The party needs to stop thinking social media is a representative sample, it needs a wholesale cleanout, all new candidates should have at least 10 years work in the private sector…is there not a tradesman anywhere in NZ who wants to be a candidate ? No freezing worker, baggage handler, road worker, secretary, barista…look at the recently announced candidates for FFS they look like Tim Barnett is sorting out a guest list for a dinner party.

  16. Disraeli Gladstone 16

    Winston is catching up on Cunliffe in the preferred Prime Minister ratings.

    As much as I don’t like him, Winston’s grin would be pretty infectious if he rated higher for one poll.

    I know there’s a lot of talk about how Helen Clark had similar poll ratings when she was Leader of the Opposition. I don’t think that’s a great fall back, though. Parliamentary politics has become more presidential in recent years. It’s probably one of the biggest rising problems in parliamentary democracy that we’re putting too much stock on the “Prime Minister”. New Zealand, Australia, the UK, Canada: the Cult of the Leader is becoming far more important than it was in the 1990s.

    I certainly wouldn’t be comfortable with Cunliffe’s ratings if I was him or Matt McCarten. I think they need to get him some good policies and make sure the delivery doesn’t go belly up. Leave attacking the slime of National to some of the old guard.

  17. Jrobin 17

    Yes Labour come out against the TPPA and stop perching on the fence. Still the Rockstar economy also includes Fonterra profits halved by polluting milk with DCD and exporting it to Sri Lanka. Our current rulers are just plain careless, without the earthquake the optimists would be struggling to praise the govt. power prices up interest rates up houses out of reach for first home buyers. A paradise by anyone’s definition. 18% is a huge jump in undecideds. Add in Mr Dotcom and this going to be the weirdest election campaign ever.

  18. One Anonymous Bloke 18

    Stuff’s spin on the topic mentions that Key is on 42% as preferred PM. How long has his support been lower than that of National?

    • ScottGN 18.1

      I’m not totally sure OAB but I think 42% for Key represents quite a big drop in the PM preferred stakes from recent polls which had him around 48/49% (which in itself is a big drop from the 55 plus percent he’s been polling over much of his tenure as PM)? A much bigger drop than Cunliffe has had in the preferred PM polling but funnily enough none of the commentators have mentioned that fact.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 18.1.1

        Yeah that’s my impression too.

        Obviously BM, Jimmie, John et al have absolutely nothing to worry about 😈

    • Clemgeopin 18.2

      I did some checking for you:

      ALL the following figures are based on the Colmar Brunton polls:

      [1] On 3 Nov 2011, just before the general election,

      Key Preferred PM rating was quite high at 56%
      This week’s Mr Key’s rating is 42%
      That is a DROP of 14 points or 25%.

      [2] On 3 Nov 2011, just before the general election,

      The National Party support was also 56%
      This week’s National support is 47%
      That is a DROP of 9 points or 17%

      [3] From the time Cunliffe took over as leader in Sept 2013, his preferred PM rating has dropped from 12% to 8% which is a drop of 4 points or 33% while the drop from Feb’s 10% to this week’s 8% is a drop of 2 points or 20%

      Labour party support has dropped from 34% (both when he took over as well as last month, to 31% now, which is a DROP of 3 points or 9%.

      You can see these figures and much more of interest to you at these two excellent pages:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011#Individual_polls

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

  19. tc 20

    The polls are another part if nact spin to keep sheeple away from voting by suggesting its a dunne deal, worked well in 2011 so here we go again.

    engineered numbers dressed up as news requiring your attention, its PR from nacts little helpers.

  20. tinfoilhat 21

    Perhaps if the blogs (and MSM) paid less attention to the polls rather than breathlessly spinning them for all their worth every couple of weeks they’d be consigned to where they belong.

    It would be good if all political polls (i.e who are you going to vote for) were banned for the period of 6-9 months leading into an election then we wouldn’t have to put up with this drivel and people could concentrate on policies and what’s going on in the country instead.

  21. Pasupial 22

    Dim-post “Bias corrected aggregated poll of polls” is up now, I’m not liking the direction of those trend lines myself but am not going to call Cunliffe a failure yet. It’s still a long time till September.

    http://dimpost.wordpress.com/

    • Auto_Immune 22.1

      I personally think Danyl’s adjustments for bias are a bit simplistic, but they do serve as a rough proxy.

      Graph basically means Winston would be kingmaker again. I don’t know how I feel about that.

  22. tsmithfield 23

    A bit of advice for David Cunliffe so far as preferred leader is concerned.

    If he is trying for a “1” in the polls, it is not the same as “number 1” in the polls. 🙂

  23. Puckish Rogue 24

    I always wondered what happened to Comical Ali 🙂 but seriously keep up the good fight Micky

    • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1

      Nice to see all the little wingnuts running around lighting fires, don’t mention the unable to govern alone, no mates, leaders popularity slump situation they’re in. I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it.

      Keep spinning little tops 😆

      • Puckish Rogue 24.1.1

        “don’t mention the unable to govern alone, no mates”

        Peter Dunne, Act, Maori Party

        “leaders popularity slump situation they’re in”

        So does that make John Key only 8 times as popular as Cunliffe?

        You also might like to check out the trend here:

        http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/updated-poll-chart-and-various-observations/

        • McFlock 24.1.1.1

          “don’t mention the unable to govern alone, no mates”

          Peter Dunne, Act, Maori Party

          Omly a tory includes toadies who rely on patronage in a list of their “mates”.

          what’s that black line down the bottom of the chart?
          NZ1? They’re less friendly to asset sales that Maori Party.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1.1.2

          You reckon Epsom will vote for Jamie Unclecousin? That the MP will win a seat?

          And where are National going to get the other 58 seats they’ll need then? 😆

          • Puckish Rogue 24.1.1.2.1

            National won 59 seats last time so its not impossible for National to win 58 this time especially as Cunliffes dragging Labour down to English 2002 election levels

            [lprent: Hey puckwit. Should we believe these numbers any more than your estimates about how many would turn up on the TPP protests? I notice you appear to be ignoring that comment.

            The Herald said there were several thousand at Auckland. Should I ban you for 18 weeks? Or are you a gutless wonder who can’t stand behind their words as well as being a pathetic dickhead about numbers.

            Just commenting. ]

            • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1.1.2.1.1

              Do tell, how were National doing in the polls to get 59 seats?

              Love your certainty transparent spin.

        • Clemgeopin 24.1.1.3

          [“don’t mention the unable to govern alone, no mates”
          Peter Dunne, Act, Maori Party]

          They are no mates!
          They are just political parasites and lousy leeches sucking from Key’s bum.

  24. One Anonymous Bloke 25

    If these polls are matched in the election result, the next government will be Labour/NZ1st with the Greens on confidence and supply.

    So let’s hope they’re overstating Winston’s support.

  25. Watching 26

    It would be good if all political polls (i.e who are you going to vote for) were banned for the period of 6-9 months leading into an election

    How would this work – how would you stop an Aussie based company (Ray Morgan) from calling from Oz and publishing the results on their Aussie based website. This becomes news and can be then be reported on the NZ based news services.

    The issue with reading polls as stated by many others is that a particular poll maybe be bias or slanted and the % numbers don’t reflect what is really happening. However, a trend within a particular poll can tell a different story. If say the Ray Morgan poll design & polling methods have a built in bias, then that bias will be built in for every poll Ray Morgan runs. If Coy A is polling the same group each time (doesn’t do land lines) then sure the % for a party maybe skewed but the movement in that % number is tellling

    • dv 26.1

      ‘It would be good if all political polls (i.e who are you going to vote for) were banned for the period of 6-9 months leading into an election

      I am not sure about that as I like to know where my vote would be the most effective.
      e.g. i like party X.
      If it was polling 4.8 I would give it my list vote to try to get it over the line.
      If it was about 4% or below I would problem look to anther for my list vote.

      • Matthew Hooton 26.1.1

        The general approach of the political left is that allowing the masses to have information is bad, and it is better for the central committee to make decisions for them.

        • Puddleglum 26.1.1.1

          The general approach of the political right is that drowning the masses in misleading and selective information is good, and it is better for the spin doctors to make their minds up for them.

          Sorry, Matthew, but that was irresistible. 🙂

        • felix 26.1.1.2

          Ha! That’s pretty funny Matthew, coming from a supporter of John Key’s govt, a govt has centralised decision-making at every possible turn.

          The Ak Supercity centralised all local govt decisions for the most populous area of NZ.

          The overriding of regional govt in Canterbury (the second most populous) put all regional decision making in the hands of central government in Wellington.

          Steven Joyce’s new Ministry Of Everything pulled several disparate ministries, no more intrinsically related than any other ministries you could name, into one huge centralised superministry.

          The direct govt intervention – from the innermost circle of cabinet – in South Canterbury finance, in Sky City, in The Hobbit, in Oravida, all speak to a govt dedicated to centralised decision making.

          You may think some or all of these examples are just good ideas, or even necessary responses, but whether you agree with them or not they all demonstrate the same mentality, the same solution to a variety of questions.

          John Key’s govt is central committee govt in a big govt way.

          • Puddleglum 26.1.1.2.1

            If I recall, Matthew was extremely supportive of the central planning approach in Christchurch and thought other cities should be begging the same treatment from central government (and complain if they didn’t get it).

            Apparently, those decisions were just so right that they deserved to be imposed on people.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 26.1.1.2.2

            +1

    • alwyn 26.2

      How about, either instead of or in addition to, banning news organisations or companies like Roy Morgan polling the public on their voting plans, we ban all political parties from doing private polling? By this I mean that they cannot poll the public on what they think of particular policies or a particular wording for their policies.

      Parties would have to present policies on what they genuinely believe, rather than simply announce finely tuned spiels on what words appeal to the voting public.
      Let us learn what the people wanting to rule us really think are things that should be done, not simply waffle what they think will get us to vote for them and which they can then ignore if they gain power and happen to end up in power.
      That would get rid of the “yeah nah” type of approach and the mad flip-flopping of announcements based on what their latest focus group says is popular today.

      I realise it is impossible but wouldn’t it be nice to get politicians who can simply announce, without equivocation, that “this is what I believe and what I will do”. If you approve of it vote for me. If what I think is different to your views vote for someone else.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 26.2.1

        Some parties could even go to the extent of posting relatively detailed policy proposals on their websites. Oh how I wish someone were doing that here.

      • Matthew Hooton 26.2.2

        Yep, let’s ban people from doing things. Always a good solution.

        • McFlock 26.2.2.1

          well, no it’s not always a good solution, but sometimes it can be.

          Thank you for providing input that is as incorrect as it is vague.

        • felix 26.2.2.2

          This might be difficult to grasp if you think there’s no such thing as society, but bear with me Matthew it’s only a couple of sentences.

          The idea is to ban stuff that has been shown to diminish the common good. alwyn has identified that the whole notion of secret polling is probably not serving the common good at all and is probably detrimental to our democracy.

          If you disagree because you think he’s wrong, and that secret polling is beneficial to the common good, then you could argue the point.

          But I don’t think you disagree with that part at all.

        • Armchair Critic 26.2.2.3

          Good idea, let’s start with banning killing and injuring others, and maybe move on to banning theft as well. Wait, that’s already been done. Which just goes to show in some cases banning stuff can be justified and it is a good idea. Thanks for showing the paucity of your depth of thought, Matthew.

      • felix 26.2.3

        alwyn that would be a wonderful state of affairs. We could call it democracy.

  26. gitmo 27

    Crank belch parp !

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    On Wednesday, the government was loudly telling us that it needed to legislate to allow it to impose "control orders" - effectively a parole regime, but imposed without charge, prosecution, conviction or real evidence - on suspected terrorists because they couldn't be prosecuted for their supposed crimes. Today, it turns ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    14 hours ago
  • Bullshitting the Minister
    On Monday, the Hit and Run inquiry heard from NZDF's former director of special operations, who claimed that the defence Minister knew everything about the Operation Burnham raid. Today, the inquiry heard from that (former) Minister - and it turns out that he didn't know nearly as much as NZDF ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    15 hours ago
  • Speaker: Extinction Rebellion is not a cult (but ecstasy for the people)
    Yoga gurus and cult leaders – I’ve seen a few. Two weeks ago, I unknowingly joined an alleged new-age cult at the Kāpiti coast, together with a giant kraken and some neatly dressed pensioners who would make any book club proud.They were among the two hundred people of all ages ...
    17 hours ago
  • We need to bring the police under control
    The last decade has seen a trend of increasing weapons availability to police. Assault rifles. Tasers on every hip. Guns in cars. And following the march 15 massacre, pistols on every hip, all over the country. At the same time, its also seen an increase in the abuse of force: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    17 hours ago
  • If you can’t measure it, does it exist?
    In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been busy preparing for our summer paper on Science Communication. Looking for something amusing about ‘risk’ in science, I came across this neat xkcd.com cartoon about why so many people come knocking on my door (or phoning me, or emailing me) desperately wanting ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    21 hours ago
  • Swinson’s swithering
    Jo Swinson is doing even worse at this Being Sensible lark that I'd thought.  I've just become aware of the following utterance
    .@KayBurley presses Lib Dem leader @joswinson on whether she would agree to a #Brexit deal 'no matter how bad a deal it is' as long as it had ...
    1 day ago
  • Women’s rights, trans ideology and Gramsci’s morbid symptoms
    by John Edmundson The International Socialist Organisation (ISO) have recently reposted a February article, by Romany Tasker-Poland, explaining ISO’s position in the “trans rights” debate.  It is available on their website and on their Facebook Page.  The article sets out to explain why “socialists support trans rights”.  It reads more ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • We need to take guns off police
    Today's IPCA report of police criminality: a police officer unalwfully tasered a fleeing suspect who posed no threat to anyone:The police watchdog has found an officer unlawfully tasered an Auckland man who broke his ankle jumping off a balcony to escape arrest. [...] To avoid arrest, the man jumped over ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • “Bringing kindness back”
    "Auckland City Mission: 10% of Kiwis experiencing food insecurity", RNZ, 16 October 2019:About half a million people are experiencing food insecurity, according to new research from the Auckland City Mission. Food insecurity, or food poverty, is defined as not having enough appropriate food. The City Mission said over the last ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Press Release: “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance b...
    Media Statement for Immediate Release 16th October 2019 “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers Despite comments from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers—Herald Newspaper Tuesday Oct 15th–there is very little evidence ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 days ago
  • Ever-So-Slightly Bonkers: Simon Bridges Plays To His Base.
    Would You Buy A Used Propaganda Video From This Man? Bridges and the National Party’s strategists have discovered that the ideas and attitudes considered acceptable by today’s editors and journalists are no longer enforceable. The rise and rise of the Internet and the social media platforms it spawned means that ...
    2 days ago
  • Asking for food
    There is plenty of evidence of the way the business mentality has permeated every level of society since the recrudescence of market liberalism 35 years ago. You only need to think of how citizens in need of help from their government, their state, their country, are now routinely described as ...
    Opposable ThumbBy Unknown
    2 days ago
  • Forty years of change in the jobs Kiwi do and the places they call home
    John MacCormick Over the last 40 years, New Zealanders – and people in other countries – have experienced big changes in the jobs they do and where they live and work. These changes include: a decline in manufacturing jobs an increase in jobs in ‘information-intensive’ industries (which are better paid ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 days ago
  • Protecting Fresh Waterways in Aotearoa/NZ: The Strong Public Health Case
    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 days ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    2 days ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 days ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    3 days ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    3 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    4 days ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    4 days ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    4 days ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    4 days ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    4 days ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    7 days ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    7 days ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    7 days ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    1 week ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
    The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    1 week ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    1 week ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The political ghosts of eugenics may matter more than the genetic
    This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • “Surplus” again
    Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Inside the Downing Street bunker
    James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Taking Control Of The Nation’s Story.
    Fatal Contact: With the arrival of captain James Cook in October 1769, the islands of what would become New Zealand ceased to be the preserve of Polynesian navigators and settlers and became a part of both the world’s map and the world’s history.THE MAORI NATIONALIST assault upon the historical meaning ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Are GNUs extinct?
    Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour chickens out again
    When the government was elected, it promised to lead the way on electric vehicles, and specifically to make the government vehicle fleet emissions-free where-practicable by 2025.They lied:There are 15,473 vehicles in the government fleet and only 78 are electric. When the coalition Government came into power in late 2017, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Transgender extremism, violence at work against feminist meeting at British Labour Party conference
    by Nick Rogers The debate around the meaning of sex and gender made an appearance at this year’s British Labour Party conference in Brighton. Women’s Place UK – an organisation that questions the demand that biological males who self-identify as woman should have access to women’s spaces, to all-women shortlists, ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Rebelling in Wellington
    Yesterday I went down to Wellington to participate in the Extinction Rebellion protest. Its part of the latest global wave of XR actions, with actions happening all over the world. Some of those protests are massively disruptive: in Canada, XR is blocking major bridges, stopping people from getting to work. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • ‘The Workshop’ – Report: Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform: A Guide to Strategies that ...
    The Workshop is a charitable trust for public good. The Workshop undertake research to find ways of communicating that will build support for the solutions that work to solve complex social and environmental problems. See their Report on Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform below. ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • Exclusive language
    What is language? We generally assume that it a facility unique to humans, allowing us to share what’s in and on our minds. We can tell of our plans, our past exploits, our knowledge. It also allows us to lie. And yet there are vast numbers of people we can’t ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Corballis
    2 weeks ago
  • April 2018 – Submission to the NZ Govt Tax Working Group
    You can read our submission HERE ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago

  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
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    2 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
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    2 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
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    2 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
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    3 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
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    3 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
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    3 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
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    3 days ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
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    3 days ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
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    3 days ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
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    3 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
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    4 days ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
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    4 days ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
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    4 days ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
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    4 days ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
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    4 days ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
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    4 days ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
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    5 days ago
  • New trapping guide for community and expert trappers alike
    The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
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    5 days ago
  • Widening Access to Contraceptives Welcomed
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
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    5 days ago
  • Major upgrade for Taranaki Base Hospital
    The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
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    6 days ago
  • Extra support for rural families
    Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
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    7 days ago
  • Howard Leaque Beekeeper programme graduation
    Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League.  Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
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    1 week ago
  • Finance Minister to attend APEC meetings
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
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    1 week ago
  • Pacific languages are a source of strength, they ground us and build confidence
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says for Pacific people, language can be a source of strength. It can help ground us and give us confidence. When we speak them, our languages provide us with an immediate and intimate access to our identity and our story - and ...
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    1 week ago
  • Major boost to support disabled people in sport and recreation
    The Coalition Government has announced an action plan to improve the wellbeing of disabled New Zealanders by addressing inequalities in play, active recreation and sport. The initiative includes training to develop a workforce that understands the needs of children and young people with a range of impairments, advocacy for fit ...
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    1 week ago
  • More prefab homes to be built as red tape cut
    The construction sector is being freed up to allow more homes to be built more quickly as the Government cuts through some of the red tape of the Building Act.  “Every New Zealander deserves a warm, dry, safe home and old inefficiencies in the Building Act make building slow and ...
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    1 week ago