Two new polls have just been released and to be frank the results are not bad. TV3 Reid Research has National at 45.9%, up slightly on the last poll result which seemed low, Labour on 31.2%, the Greens on 11.2% and NZ First on 4.9%. The poll historically over reports National’s support so if I was them I would be worried.
One News Colmar Brunton’s results are similar, National is on 47% apparently down 4, Labour 31% down 3, the Greens 11% up 3, and NZ First 7%.
The results may be similar but Paddy Gower interprets the Reid Research result as vindication for National whereas the Colmar Brunton result suggests that National has shed 4% to NZ First.
Mediawatch this morning had interesting comments on polling, on the need not to ascribe slight changes to be evidence of the electorate passing judgment on an individual incident (e.g. Judith Collins), and comment was made on how National’s support tended to be overrepresented in polls. With 20% of people not having landlines I agree.
These results suggest that the election is closer than the media would let us think it is.