The vote for change

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, September 25th, 2017 - 172 comments
Categories: election 2017, nz first, winston peters - Tags: , , ,

This election was a vote for change. After specials are counted the Labour Green block will be nearly or actually tied with the Nats. And then there is NZF.

Peters never picks sides during an election campaign because he wants to scoop up votes from the left and the right. But it’s pretty clear that his party members lean well to the left, as does much of their policy. Members are making their views clear after the election (Newshub):

Winston Peters mum on coalition, but voters make preferences clear

Winston Peters’ voters wanted change and now they are demanding it on Mr Peters’ own Facebook page.

Hundreds of posts from people who voted for New Zealand First are imploring Mr Peters’ to ally himself with Labour and the Greens to form a new coalition Government.

“I voted NZ FIRST for change. Please do right by all the kiwis that don’t have a voice and my vote won’t be wasted,” one person wrote.

“54 percent of voters voted for change! Be the change Winston!” another wrote.

“I would love to see you choose Labour. I think National will steamroll you somehow otherwise. Keep it kiwi and choose labour please,” another asked.
…
“National backstabbed you and you know it. National is too cocky and proud to admit their own failures. What a great opportunity for a change of good government,” one wrote.

“Go with Labour, please Winston. You know Bill will promise the earth and then deliver nothing. NZ wants and needs change!” another said. …

No one knows what Peters will do. I’m not even convinced that him going with Labour Green is the best outcome – maybe a train wreck Nat NZF term is best for the long run. But either way, the Nats lost this election. This election was a vote for change. Winston Peters, and the magic of MMP, might very well deliver it.

172 comments on “The vote for change ”

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  1. Carolyn_nth 1
    25 September 2017 at 8:36 am

    I’m not even convinced that him going with Labour Green is the best outcome

    I woke up wondering that as well.

    It is curious that allegedly the Nats tried to take out Winston Peters during the election. If so why? Maybe they would prefer NZF as a partner party without Winston – a party they could shape to the Nats own ends?

    Having eaten and spat out all their other past aligned parties, Nats are in need of a new one if they want to continue to govern.

    But, NZ DOES need change: low income families living in cars, garages and campsites need change; our environment needs change; our economy needs change to work for all for the future.

    Whichever way NZ First goes into government, I hope it results in the changes we need.

    But I don’t see any easy way forward. It’s up to us; we the people need to lead change.

    • JC 1.1
      25 September 2017 at 10:15 am

      +1 Carolyn.

      For what it’s worth Stuff has a vote/poll going currently:

      “Which governing arrangement would you most like to see?”

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97178666/poll-which-governing-arrangement-would-you-most-like-to-see

      Appears that most vote for change …

      • Unicus 1.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 10:38 am

        Exactly why vote for NZ first if you want a National Govt

        And the man of the hour must be Tamati Coffee Not only did he deal to The Maori Party in the process he bought down the worst government in living memory

        Tamiti You’re a true ” Labour Knight “

    • Draco T Bastard 1.2
      25 September 2017 at 10:31 am

      It is curious that allegedly the Nats tried to take out Winston Peters during the election. If so why?

      They know that NZ1st’s policies don’t match with theirs at all while there is significant overlap with Labour/Greens. That meant that if NZ1st ended up being in the position that it is now in then National were toast.

      Given that their only option was to try to get rid of Winston the same way that the attack on Metiria for speaking truth about life as a beneficiary almost got rid of the Greens.

      Having eaten and spat out all their other past aligned parties, Nats are in need of a new one if they want to continue to govern.

      And there’s not going to be any rising any time soon. The only one they’ve got left is ACT and they’re a non-entity. Without their deal for Epsom and the overhang that it produces ACT would not be in parliament.

      National is now in the position of only being able to be government if they get over 50% of the vote.

      Whichever way NZ First goes into government, I hope it results in the changes we need.

      The will of the voters who voted for NZ1st and probably most of their members seems to be for a coalition with Labour/Greens. That should bring about a lot of the changes we need.

    • Karen 1.3
      25 September 2017 at 1:44 pm

      “But, NZ DOES need change: low income families living in cars, garages and campsites need change; our environment needs change; our economy needs change to work for all for the future.”

      I really hoped we could have a Labour Green government without the need for NZF, but I still think a 3 way coalition is better than the alternative for all those people struggling to survive. Māori, in particular, would be badly served by a National/NZF government.

      I loathe Ron Mark and Shane Jones (in particular) but some of the NZF policies are quite well aligned with Green and Labour policies so it would be possible to get some progressive change – just not as much as with just Labour and the Greens. It seems likely Labour and the Greens will get an extra seat each so that will be helpful in negotiations.

      Part of me thinks it would be better to let the Nats and NZF go into coalition so that the left would be in a better position at the next election, but there are just too many people who would get hurt in the meantime.

    • Delia 1.4
      25 September 2017 at 4:50 pm

      Good luck shaping Tracey Martin to their own ends if that was the plan.

  2. David C 2
    25 September 2017 at 9:00 am

    So when Labour “lost” the election in 2005 what happened?

    • cleangreen 2.1
      25 September 2017 at 9:26 am

      Correct David C,

      Yes, David, we got a minority labour Government with NZ First coalition and Greens C&S agreemant right?

      It was the best performance we had for Rail & the important Environmental changes with balanced budgets and crown debt reductions.

      • popexplosion 2.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 10:27 am

        But Key said English won, Boag said the majority does not matter only the largest party can rule… …oops, forgot what a bunch of self serving liars they are. Peters will love sitting in with them, having the dagger in his back still dangling out from last time. English took National to a second defeat, this was his only success. Feeding off yet another dead coalition partner, not yet in the grave, and National have completely forgotten they had a four way orgy of parties in coalition. The lying just never stops. German Chancellor is now in coalition talks with the Greens, yeah a high productivity advanced country can work with the Greens. All this childish untouchable crap is poor leadership… …but hello we all know why… …National are the party of profiting off distortion, it’s not just the talk, they are liars in their core, lying about housing, about kids in garages, about swimming in low flow polluted rivers, fracking aquifers to low potability, leaky homes was all them… They don’t grow the economy, they degrade it. And on the off they agree cross party to insulate homes and build broadband which would happen anyway without them, they have nothing except degrade degrade degrade, even the discourse of elections. No 20 dollar cabbages in the shops yet!

        National is a moving disaster. Even as a bloodbath ensued, Greens lose a leader, Labour lose a leader, UF loses a leader, Maori lose a leader, Act lose the leadership of National, even Winstons retirement plan is about to be forged in the halls of Mordor. Even as everyone but them heads explode, some in a good way, aka Peters, English still could not get the majority of N.A. behind him. Oh the shame.

        • Robert Guyton 2.1.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 6:25 pm

          Great comment, pop!

          • popexplosion 2.1.1.1.1
            26 September 2017 at 10:20 am

            English is dead in the water. He is gone. Peters is looking toward retirement, when he goes to London, Shane will slide over to the next Nat leader. English lost, and you know how you can tell, Election night Key says didn’t he do well. Smiling assassin. Key left the political arena with every political head harmed, not a single one of them hasn’t be burnt by the Key leadership style. They only have themselves to blame letting the media go all optics and soft for John. Degrade nation, profits sucked offshore faster than ever.

  3. esoteric pineapples 3
    25 September 2017 at 9:01 am

    I think of NZ First as essentially a protest party for conservatives. The only change it can think of, is going back to the past, which isn’t really a progressive perspective.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1
      25 September 2017 at 10:34 am

      Read their policies. They’re really not as bad as you seem to think.

      • weka 3.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 10:58 am

        That’s because some old school conservatives weren’t that bad. It’s the neoliberals that are really fucking things up. So I can see conservatives voting NZF not National.

        Not the same as progressive though. And yes, some of the policies are good, or heading in the right direction, or better than National, but Peters will always play the centre and try and prevent NZ moving left.

        • Once was Tim 3.1.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 12:54 pm

          +1
          Some ‘old school’ (a term I hate – because the likes of Jessie Mulligan consider themselves ‘old school’) Nats (rather than Gnats or Natzis) weren’t that bad.
          Some in recent times have allowed themselves to be corrupted – Jim Bolger even – despite his view on neo-liberalism. But also Douglas Graham and even Chris Finlayson.
          There’d be a few rolling in their graves too if they could see the likes of Stevie Choice, Paula Bennett and Judith Collins holding so much sway.
          Sure as shit National ain’t what it used to be (not that I’ve ever voted for them).
          I’m pretty sure that if you wanted a simple answer, it’s why Winnie and bro Ian got pissed off with them (and with good reason).
          Despite the likes of Hooton giving us words of wisdom in the past that National (especially during the Key term) had become left-wing, that whole left-right pendulum has swung – probably because of the neo-liberal religion. I say religion because it now is – as was it was inevitably going to be. Individualism over community; competition over cooperation; me me me / I I I over us us us – EVEN to the extent the neo-liob faith professes concern for the next gen, BUT only if it doesn’t affect their own comfy little twilight years.
          BTW – the only driver for Key (like Trump) is an over-inflated ego; his ability to recognise financial ‘winners’; roll-of-the-dice luck; ruthlessness (tho’ not of the Richardson kind); and complete used-car-salesman sleeziness – apparently it’s something that’s worshiped these days.
          I’m not sure why the electorate (or probably just media) is giving Winnie so much shit – other than FPP thinking still prevails in our MMP system.
          It pervades our MSM. But then you have to understand I suppose, that even the likes of Garner, Espiner et al have pretty much grown up knowing nothing else – at least in the adult – life and especially when you have someone like Mark Richardson sitting next to you who society would benefit from by giving him massive doses of oestrogen. But then apparently there’s no such thing as sussoighty.
          Winnie might be a fucking dinasour, or maybe its just that he has old-fashioned (‘old school’) values of community, sovereignty, egalitarianism, the nation-state, democracy – all that sort of stuff and things.
          But there is definately more of an affinity with Lab/Grn values for him than there is with the current state of the Natzis/Gnats. The question is whether he’ll go with those values and concern for the next generation, or will he go with his ego. Hard to know and all this ponitification really isn’t worth shit (especially that pontification we see in MSM)

    • popexplosion 3.2
      25 September 2017 at 11:07 am

      Ardern is new, obviously on the right of her party, she did not have the the time, or was distorted by National attack dogs from creating trust… ..yet Peters still lost votes to her, and the Greens self inflicted shock the voters… …anyway my point is Peters was the obvious alternative for conservative types, policy or not.

      There are several scenarios…
      I. we go back to the voters, ii. we get min. Nat govt, or lab govt where parties sit opposite help with legislation as it comes, iii. Nat get into bed alone with Lab, Greens or NZF, lol. iv. Everyone that matters but National, v. some cross party orgy of interest, and finally the Belgium solution headless for three years.

      Personally Peters is only required for about 10% of the scenarios, but like the Greens and Labour, won’t move until the full count is in on the 7th, so take a holiday already. National are toast just remember to burn them a bit.

      How many English men does it take to lose two elections?

    • Shona 3.3
      25 September 2017 at 12:19 pm

      Oh FFS! @ esoteric pineapples READ their policies! Life was a damn sight better in the past too! Young NZer’s did not top themselves in droves because they had a future then that had positive promise. Not the prospect of being under Beijing’s boot!

  4. Blackcap 4
    25 September 2017 at 9:03 am

    Im not sure there will be change. At the moment I can put on a bet that says for every $1 I bet if Jacinda becomes the PM I get $10 back. Conversely if I put that same $1 bet on Bill English to be the next PM I get $1.10 back. For any other PM, be that Winston or James Shaw, I get $111 back for my $1.
    http://www.betfair.com (the market is under Politics and then NZ Elections.

  5. cleangreen 5
    25 September 2017 at 9:10 am

    It’s so bloody comical today on media hearing Bill English saying now he is confident of forming an agreement with Winston and calls Wnston a Political ‘Maverick”!!!!!!!

    Next Bill will be shining Winston’s black ‘patent’ leather shoes right?

    I like and admire Winston but as for bill English, he is just another bottom feeding fish that no-one can trust by anyone from the centre left to far left.

    Winstons policies are in direct oposition to the nasty austerity slash & burn neolib right wing policies of national today.

    Winston will not go with Bil’s dream unless English reverts to Muldoons former National policies which were close to the Government economic NZ First policy.

    Uder mulldoon we had a socialism type big Government spend on NZ infrustructure to give jobs to all.

    National sell and privatise instead and only build roads and no rail outside Auckland.

    • David C 5.1
      25 September 2017 at 9:16 am

      Winston is a big Govt nanny state lover so well suited to Labour and Taxcinda has stated she wont raise the pension age so they dont have that to fight over unlike National.
      Winstons ego will drive the choice he makes. Deputy PM? But he is really too lazy for that role.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 9:32 am

        Is the uncertainty getting to you? The nagging feeling that in the event of a L/G/NZF coalition, the sky won’t fall on everyone’s head, and where will you get your scary fearmongering lies from then?

        • David C 5.1.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 10:46 am

          As previously stated I would love Winston to choose the Red team.

          I actually hoped Taxcinda would bring in a real CGT but she has backflipped on that.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1.1.1.1
            25 September 2017 at 10:56 am

            Looks like I’m going to have to spell it out for you. Your wish for NZF to go with L/G is predicated on the notion that they’ll fail to make it work, the way National couldn’t.

            So if the sky doesn’t fall on everyone’s head, Chicken Little, where will you get your next lie from? I’m picking Curia research will have to invent it for you first.

          • tracey 5.1.1.1.2
            25 September 2017 at 1:31 pm

            Her name is Jacinda.

      • Draco T Bastard 5.1.2
        25 September 2017 at 10:38 am

        Winston is a big Govt nanny state

        A democracy is Rule by the People. Everybody is in government. Making it any smaller is to remove democracy.

      • left_forward 5.1.3
        25 September 2017 at 12:04 pm

        Neo-liberalism failed to fool enough people this time David C – good-bye and good riddance.

      • tracey 5.1.4
        25 September 2017 at 1:30 pm

        I am confused. As a Nat supporter do you want it up or down? For 9 years you wanted it to stay under Key and now you want it up?

      • Andrea 5.1.5
        25 September 2017 at 1:48 pm

        If Mr Peters is ‘lazy’ then we could do with a whole bunch more like him.

        His party was out of parliament for three years and he worked to get it back. Out into the regions, around the traps,keeping the brand alive when most people his age would be doing whatever they could afford on the pittance that is govt ‘super’.

        And he wasn’t too ‘lazy’ to be an effective Foreign Minister; nor Treasurer.

        Also – silly, silly comments about ‘nanny state’. National is THE party for little scared people who want The Government to protect their profits, enterprises, lifestyles, specialness from those Awful Other People.

        You couldn’t call it ‘elite’ – even on a good day. More like ‘exclusive’, and not in a good way.

        PS If National is so hands off and low tax – would they please keep their sticky mitts OFF the GST rate forevermore? Even return it to 10.5%? You know – like Australia. Low tax (sarc) National -two ticks sucking more tax.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.1.5.1
          25 September 2017 at 2:58 pm

          Also – silly, silly comments about ‘nanny state’. National is THE party for little scared people who want The Government to protect their profits, enterprises, lifestyles, specialness from those Awful Other People.

          QFT

          You couldn’t call it ‘elite’ – even on a good day. More like ‘exclusive’, and not in a good way.

          Yep. they consider themselves special and irreplaceable but they’re neither. And they’re certainly not worth the effort that they demand from others.

        • Stuart Munro 5.1.5.2
          25 September 2017 at 3:14 pm

          +100

        • tracey 5.1.5.3
          25 September 2017 at 7:13 pm

          Well said. Even when beung lied to their faces Nat voters think they are smart and independent

      • simonm 5.1.6
        25 September 2017 at 3:00 pm

        @ Dave C. Does the ‘C’ stand for cunt?

    • Zeroque 5.2
      25 September 2017 at 9:20 am

      English is talking as though it’s his right to govern and is almost falling over himself to signal to Peters that he can have almost anything he asks for. Desperate sounding even.

    • Shona 5.3
      25 September 2017 at 12:23 pm

      Bill English is lower than a snake’s arse. And he can free fall further still !

      • tracey 5.3.1
        25 September 2017 at 1:33 pm

        Be fair. A basically decent snake who lies and takes 900 bucks extra a week while pretending to live in Dipton

    • Robert Guyton 5.4
      25 September 2017 at 6:27 pm

      “Next Bill will be shining Winston’s black ‘patent’ leather shoes right”

      With his tongue.

      This is great fun! Who’d have thought? Fun and games, post election!!
      Wahoo!

  6. Bearded Git 6
    25 September 2017 at 9:42 am

    Commentators aren’t really picking up on the drop of the National/Conservative vote from 51.2% to (after specials) 45%, a drop of 12% in the vote for the Right.

    Without the Joyce/English lies (“interest rates will go up under Labour”) and media bias Jacinda would have strolled it.

    Incidentally the Greens have at the moment got 8.2% in the German elections-good result.

  7. Sanctuary 7
    25 September 2017 at 10:00 am

    Basically we are now a divided country, with half of us selfish haves and half of us forgotten have nots.

    I was up in Albany yesterday and I walked around the (very middle class) mall up there, and it was National’s heartland on a day out. But I don’t get the attraction of that life. It is so mind bendingly deadly dull. Mediocre, over-priced chain restaurants jostle for attention so you can get a disappointing meal. Individualism is expressed in buying the sort of “accessible luxury” labels available in every shop in every mall everywhere. Status is signaled not through achievement of ideas or service, but through consumption and the materialism of bach, boat and BMW. Everyone works all day and is rampantly addicted to a desire for unimpeded “purchased luxury” in a way that has alarmed philosophers and thinkers since the time of the Stoics. The emptiness at the heart of consumption capitalism is acknowledged in their desperate prejudice against anyone who thinks their might be a different way because they know their status is meaningless unless you buy into it… Capitalist materialism and consumption is so sterile and morally vacant, but everyone wants into it and they want the house and SUV that comes with it, even more than they want decent schools and hospitals.

    Labour did badly in Auckland. When surveyed, Aucklanders all say they want better public transport, and better housing, and better mental health. But it is clear that when in the polling booth a majority of Aucklanders are shy Tories, incredibly self-serving and selfish and what they actually voted is for is the continuation housing Ponzi scheme. National does nothing about housing because it knows it has trapped so many Auckland debt-slave voters with a terrifying threat of capitalism showing itself as anything but a one-way street to wealth. So many people have paid so much into the housing bubble they are petrified they’ll be wiped out by a downturn. So frightened, in fact, they’ll sell their kids and the poor and the health system and education and the future down the river just so they can be damn paper millionaires in their modest, over-priced homes that they work 60 hours to afford the bloody mortgage on, trapped within the values of consumption.

    The lesson for Labour, should it form the government, is it will never win the votes of the indebted Auckland middle class. Enact policies in the interests of the poor and homeless that burst the housing bubble and an enraged and embittered middle class will blame everyone but themselves for discovering capitalism has a dark side. Do nothing and they’ll never be forgiven by their own supporters. Labour needs to recognse that once it power it needs to use that power to actively (like National has with swamping us with pro-government migrants and creating a reactionary debt-slave middle class) mobilise and empower it’s own base. Government funded community organisers in poor areas. Re-introduction of compulsory student union membership. Labour friendly laws that give strength and help organise the working poor and the precariat. Remember, even in 1935 48% of NZ didn’t vote Labour. Labour built a constituency when in power and went over the heads of the hostile media with things like the National Film Unit to get it’s message out. The same social and cultural profile as 1935 is with us again.

    • Anne 7.2
      25 September 2017 at 10:55 am

      Brilliant summary Sanctuary. I have a part-time job in an up-market mall and have observed the same many, many times.

      • popexplosion 7.2.1
        25 September 2017 at 11:26 am

        National are crap at running the economy, you feel crap right?

        • left_forward 7.2.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 12:13 pm

          National didn’t run anything – they just let self-interested market forces dictate the agenda, neglecting the management of an economy that would have otherwise contributed to maximizing the benefit for everyone.

          • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1.1.1
            25 September 2017 at 5:21 pm

            Maximising the benefit of the economy to everyone doesn’t make rich people richer.

            • KJT 7.2.1.1.1.1
              26 September 2017 at 10:34 am

              It makes rich people who start businesses and innovate, to supply what people need and want, richer.

              It doesn’t of course, make wealthy bludgers off the tax payer, lazy inheritors of silver spoons, speculators and legalized Ponzi scheme designers, most of NZ’s wealthy, richer!

            • popexplosion 7.2.1.1.1.2
              26 September 2017 at 10:58 am

              Nonsense. Yes it does. Exploiting the planet to maximize iPod ownership makes Apple execs much much richer.

              • Draco T Bastard …
                26 September 2017 at 12:12 pm

                But that’s not what’s happening. Poverty is increasing because the economy has been tilted in favour of rich people making them richer but everyone else poorer.

                • popexplosion …
                  26 September 2017 at 1:35 pm

                  yes. Govt have privatized taxes on the citizenry, take housing, middle nz pay more, for less, earn less, and the poorest get garages and cars to sleep in. Rich people aren’t the problem, its the wannabe rich who gouge out profits to hand over to the super rich, who likely realize K.Marx point about revolution following on. Tories, fascists, same same, they caniballize until nothing is less, degrade economics.

                  • Draco T Bastard …
                    26 September 2017 at 1:46 pm

                    Rich people aren’t the problem

                    Yes they are:

                    Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources, with “Elites” based largely in industrialised countries responsible for both:

                    “… accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels.”

                    And we are seeing the same collapse brought about by the rich happening now.

    • Warren Doney 7.3
      25 September 2017 at 11:56 am

      It might come down to “who is least likely to burst the housing bubble”, but I do wonder how many people think Labour will do it. It would be extremely worthwhile for Labour to research. Cullen and Clark actually started the process which caused it, but I doubt many remember or even knew that.

      If this is really the problem, we should address it directly, or we will prolong a process that is compounding damage all the time. I think it can be done.

      I think it’s quite likely that many people believe there is a bubble, and are shit scared that it will pop, so the only way out that I can think of is engineering a soft landing for them.

      What I would propose is letting people write off their capital losses against tax if they have bought a family home in the last 5-10 years. Investment properties would probably be strictly ruled out, as far fewer people own them than people realise (and the majority of them would vote national anyway…).

      • lprent 7.3.1
        25 September 2017 at 12:48 pm

        There isn’t a housing bubble as such (ie a not largely a speculative one) in Auckland. There is a housing shortage due to a two decades of not building enough and an ongoing shortage of land because of developers building single family dwellings on a largish section.

        It will take time to get the building program even up to the levels required by our current immigration even before the accumulated shortfall is attacked.

        But either way, the current mad unprecedented levels of immigration need to be curbed down to a few tens of thousands because it’d be damn near impossible to keep running massively high immigration and to build infrastructure and housing at the same time. At present the majority of immigration is effectively in low skilled areas and that is holding wages down, unemployment up, and retarding productivity improvement by using capital investment to stop using humans as cheap self-replicating machines. That will cause wage inflation as the shortages of labour bites. This is economics 101

        The nett effect will be a soft landing because at present we have don’t have much inflation and wage inflation is effectively negative once you remove the top 5% of earners out of calculations.

        Sure there is a bit of soft money floating around, mostly from people dragging their money out of countries like China in interesting manners. But those have been mostly getting plugged at the source or are being done now. There are a lot less paid for in cash real estate deals going on now. The QA has largely stopped worldwide, which is reflected in the increasing difficulties in getting mortgages.

        I’d expect the usual real estate price plateau followed by inflation and higher interest rates will quell any remaining speculation – provided that we actually start building enough high density housing (to get around land scarcity and/or long commutes).

        • RedLogix 7.3.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 2:11 pm

          I’m surprised no-one here has commented on this article from Phil Quinn.

          https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/97185921

          Absolutely he’s no-one’s darling around here, but I believe that just because you don’t agree or like someone does not mean they’re wrong all the time. Critically Quinn identifies solid support from ‘recent immigrants’ in Auckland as the main reason for National’s remarkable result.

          In Nelson (and many other regional centres) Labour made good gains over National, but in the Auckland electorates they went backwards. And Auckland (not Winston Peters) now holds the long-term balance of electoral power in this country.

          Elsewhere I’ve seen research that indicates our recent migrants tend to vote for the incumbent party 85:15, which means National (and the powerful business community) have every incentive to keep the immigration tap wide open … regardless of what Peters asks for.

          Combine this with a media propaganda machine that works assiduously to protect National and undermine the left, and in the absence of some dramatic circuit breaker, it looks like National govt’s forever. They could easily win a 5th or even 6th term from here. Socialism in this country is dead; our future looks more like Mexico’s than Denmark’s.

          Even if the specials blow some pixie dust onto the result, and we get a Lab/NZ1/Grn coalition govt, I struggle to see how this would change the underlying dynamic.

          • Draco T Bastard 7.3.1.1.1
            25 September 2017 at 5:32 pm

            Even if the specials blow some pixie dust onto the result, and we get a Lab/NZ1/Grn coalition govt, I struggle to see how this would change the underlying dynamic.
            And that is the major problem. We’re going backwards fast but no one wants to address the problem that is capitalism and the ever accruing amount of wealth increasing for the few while the rest, the people who actually keep society going, starve.

            The inevitable result of capitalism is collapse – and we’re seeing that play out now.

          • KJT 7.3.1.1.2
            25 September 2017 at 6:18 pm

            Surely even the most blind right wing supporters can do the maths.

            70 000 new migrants annually is 700 000 in ten years. That requires 100 000 new houses at 7 per house. Infrastructure for another Auckland in twenty years, at least 8 new hospitals in ten years with at least 350 000 new jobs to employ them.

            Mind you 11.7 billion arithmetic mistakes/lies don’t give much confidence in right wing maths.

    • left_forward 7.4
      25 September 2017 at 12:10 pm

      Excellent Sanctuary – spot on.

    • Unicus 7.5
      25 September 2017 at 12:32 pm

      Terrific annalysis

      Labour needs to understand itself and identify a precise purpose before it can be useful to its people – yes it’s done it before and can again

    • JC 7.6
      25 September 2017 at 12:34 pm

      + 1

      Not to take away from your very salient points.

      I note also that Labour did badly in all the majority of the Rural Electorates in the Mainland at least. e.g. Clutha Southland, Waitaki, Rangatira. All mostly ground Zero for intensive dairy.

      (I’m not familiar enough with the North Island to comment there).

      Sure all probably traditional Blue seats but there are many in those demographics’ that suffer from the same malaise you mention. And similarly there are parallels with your comments outside of Auckland

      Sadly we have become a divided country with selfishness, and self interest, playing a part.

      And sadly Federated Farmers are continuing to support another divide. With Katie Milne informing us today that with the current uncertainty “There are still some who are genuinely worried – well, quite a lot actually – and there are some who have already indicated that they’ve really battened down their hatches until they know a result. “Farmers are now in limbo, they’re keeping their wallets in their pockets”

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/340179/farmers-batten-down-their-hatches-post-election

      • DS 7.6.1
        25 September 2017 at 3:03 pm

        Um, of course Labour does badly in Clutha-Southland. It’s not so much Blue as Ultra-violet. In 2008, there was a polling booth there where Bill and Ben got more party votes than Labour.

      • KJT 7.6.2
        25 September 2017 at 6:20 pm

        Didn’t expect much support for getting farmers to pay taxes.

      • RedLogix 7.6.3
        25 September 2017 at 8:10 pm

        And sadly Federated Farmers are continuing to support another divide.

        To add a little to this; quite a few in the tramping community (over 200,000 of us go tramping at least twice a year) have been soured by the increasing number of land owners who demonstrate a nasty, grasping attitude towards public access. Every year we lose several more routes, or encounter yet another protracted negotiation.

        Last year we had one SI land owner barge into one of our social forums and behave with a toxic arrogance so appalling I initially imagined he was taking the piss. But no.

        It never used to be like this; and doesn’t have to be. There are plenty of very generous and good landowners out there, but sadly the bad ones dig the divide far quicker than the good ones can build bridges.

  8. ianmac 8
    25 September 2017 at 10:01 am

    English is hammering the big party has the right to rule. He has to in order to prime the public mind against the “horror” of Lab, Green, NZF! It will be accented with every word English says.

    • Anne 8.1
      25 September 2017 at 11:01 am

      Winston will go the way he and his party choose to go and English’s FPP mindset is not likely to sway them. However what Jacinda Ardern and her colleagues have to do is loudly counter the FPP rubbish with the MMP logic every time they open their mouths.

      • Chuck 8.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 3:44 pm

        Winston will do what is best for himself and then NZF.

        Jacinda will need to make another captains call, and agree not to cancel the Nats tax cuts, or Winston will say no to her. After all a large % of his supporter base receive the pension, and are waiting for the extra $ to arrive in their pockets.

        Don’t worry about FPP or MMP…this is WP time now 🙂

      • Robert Guyton 8.1.2
        25 September 2017 at 8:18 pm

        Anne is correct. Chuck is dreaming.

    • Doogs 8.2
      25 September 2017 at 12:30 pm

      Correct ianmac, absolutely spot on.
      Natzi thinking is predicated on the old and long out-moded ‘droit d seigneur’ outlook. Long have they supped from the table of ‘right to rule’. They have entrenched this thinking for so long it has become like a hood which they cannot see out of.

      Winston needs to do the right thing for once. When Labour and the Greens pick up another 1% – 2% from the specials his way is clear. If not, then we sink back into the old neo-lib vortex which will eventually turn us into a third world economy, if we are not there already.

  9. Enough is Enough 9
    25 September 2017 at 10:06 am

    This is going to be a real test for James and the rest of the Green team.

    I can not really see Shane Jones (heir apparent to the NZ First throne) wanting to sit at a cabinet table with the Green Party.

    I think NZ First’s demand for changing the government will be a two party coalition with Labour, supported by the Green Party sitting outside of cabinet and government.

    The Greens will be presented with this in the coming weeks and will need to decide whether to support this “change of government’, or give the Nats a 4th term.

  10. ianmac 10
    25 September 2017 at 10:07 am

    On the other hand the warning signs that an economic downturn is imminent will put any government under pressure. If National is in power they will cop the blame but it will be the fault of foreign action. But if Labour is in power they will be used to show that a downturn is what happens when Labour “mis-manages” the country.

    So if Jacinda isn’t in power think how much influence she will have by 2020.

    • Enough is Enough 10.1
      25 September 2017 at 10:44 am

      If there is going to be economic downturn, the left is needed more than ever.

      The rich never suffer during downturns. It is the poor that pay the costs with job losses and lower wages.

      We don’t govern through the good times to look good. We want to govern through the tough times and face the challenges front on in order to stop our people suffering.

    • Draco T Bastard 10.2
      25 September 2017 at 10:49 am

      There is that too.

      In some ways it may be better for National to continue to govern as then they’ll get the blame for the disaster that their policies have created.

      But, then, do we really want such a ham-fisted government in power when it does happen?
      Do we want those who are suffering under National to continue to suffer and, when National’s policies collapse the economy, for National to then blame the poor as they always do and punish them for National’s actions?

      The shit is going to hit the fan and the only chance we’ve got is by having a Labour led government in place. Unfortunately, that’s going to mean Labour are going to have to get really good and really fast with pointing out how it was National’s policies that caused it.

    • popexplosion 10.3
      25 September 2017 at 11:31 am

      Didn’t that TV show, the one too late for many, show that NZ is borrowing money to pay for homes that were half the price not long ago. That effectively, big picture, we are borrowing heaps of money, running round the hamster wheel paying off the debt and interest, for the same houses. That stupid is doing the same and expecting something different. It’s not only dumb economic from the dumb economic party of Key, but its inevitably going to end badly.

      Go into any shop and buy stuff and your feeding the monster bet of some natural stupid national supporters mortgage. In fact seriously if you have no debt start a business these creeps would soon be in bankruptcy

  11. Lizbet 11
    25 September 2017 at 10:52 am

    Calling this a signal for change when the incumbents won the largest portion of the vote ,and the king-maker has expressed no preference is ridiculous. Facebook comments and stuff polls aren’t the gauge of opinion, votes are.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1
      25 September 2017 at 11:22 am

      I’d call the right losing 7% support (National + conservatives) a signal for change.

      That’s why we’re counting seats (not votes) and coming up with 63.

    • tracey 11.2
      25 September 2017 at 1:18 pm

      You keep thinking FPP. Now had National got 51%… but they didnt so the voters can just as logically be said to have spoken when under MMP Labour Green and NZF can govern.

  12. weka 12
    25 September 2017 at 11:00 am

    Let me get this right. A group of people who wanted a change of government voted for a party that for the whole election campaign essentially said it might support the incumbent government? Did these people not remember the last time this happened?

    • Enough is Enough 12.1
      25 September 2017 at 11:15 am

      Exactly

      I do not buy the argument that NZ First supporters voted to change the government.

      r0b, can you point me to any source where Winston says a vote for NZ first is a vote to change the government.

      His campaign was an opposition to the “two old parties”.

      • red-blooded 12.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 11:25 am

        His campaign slogan was “Had enough?” Presumably, if the answer was, “Yes” people wouldn’t vote for the party asking that question.

        Still, the man is entirely self-interested and anyone who voted for him should have known that he wasn’t actually making a commitment to change anything. He’s a blow-hard.

        • Enough is Enough 12.1.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 11:32 am

          If anyone last week thought that a tick for Winston was a vote for a change of government, they were an idiot.

          In every interview he had, our not so clever journalists tried to get an answer from him on that question. He never even hinted at which side he preferred.

      • Chuck 12.1.2
        25 September 2017 at 3:55 pm

        You are dead right Enough is Enough.

        People voted Winston for various reasons…a few may of thought it was to throw out National, others to keep National in check.

        At no time did Winston even mumble a vote for him = a vote for the Labour / Green block.

        It was always to keep the two old parties in check (as you said above).

    • tracey 12.2
      25 September 2017 at 1:20 pm

      Yup.

      And people who villified Turei voted for a government whose leader lied to their faces

      • repateet 12.2.1
        25 September 2017 at 8:56 pm

        Yeah, but that doesn’t count because “she was arrogant” about it! True, that’s what I’ve read and what people have told me.

        Did you notice Steven Joyce being not arrogant while lying?

    • KJT 12.3
      25 September 2017 at 6:59 pm

      The working class people I know voted for Winston for their jobs, wages and pensions.

      • BM 12.3.1
        25 September 2017 at 7:05 pm

        They probably voted Peters because he’s the only politician they know.

        Peters picks up a surprising amount of the dumb vote.

      • weka 12.3.2
        25 September 2017 at 7:32 pm

        Did they think their jobs, wages and pensions would be protected by National?

        • KJT 12.3.2.1
          25 September 2017 at 7:58 pm

          After telling people to vote for policies you cannot blame the working class for voting for Peters.
          Labour has been equivocal on the pension age, immigration, welfare, the TPP and wages. Winston has been consistent.
          I am a Green as you well know. But NZF is the next best fit with policies looking after people.

  13. Keith 13
    25 September 2017 at 11:06 am

    Oh the irony is so, so thick.

    Does Peters go with the very party that tried to politically assassinate him just weeks ago by leaking/revealing his confidential pension details to the media?

    Does Peters go with the Party that ran a campaign to take him out of the running altogether by reining in their vote in the provinces?

    Does Peters go with the same party that told us all in 2008 that he was so untrustworthy that he should be no where near their government and that in brief hindsight is so fucking ironic, it beggars belief.

    Does he go with a party who in essence is the polar opposite of where his policies lay?

    Or does he change the government?

    • Doogs 13.1
      25 September 2017 at 12:34 pm

      +111 Keith

    • tracey 13.2
      25 September 2017 at 1:23 pm

      Exactly. Relationships, including political, are based on trust. Underpinning NZF and National’s relationship is mistrust… that does not bode well.

      Part of me wants him to go with National. Then if there is a change in 2020 it might be for more than 3 years. OTOH like 84 to 93 so much damage is done we are still suffering from it…

      • KJT 13.2.1
        25 September 2017 at 8:04 pm

        I can see all National’s chickens coming home to roost in the next three years.
        It is tempting to leave them in power, so it is obvious even to the terminally thick, who is to blame.
        However I do not want all the continued harm to individuals, and another three years of vandalism.

  14. Pete 14
    25 September 2017 at 11:08 am

    You know that after an election the real thinkers of society will ponder what everything means and put events into context after applying their intellectual power and knowledge of the world and people.

    So we come to Mike Hosking.

    His lament that New Zealand First has a position of power, “New Zealand First are hostage-takers” ends, “The last 18 years of settled, stable government – where scraps are not part of the landscape, where antagonism, frustration and carping is but a distant memory.”

    The idea that there could be some political rough-and-tumble, where things might just get a bit shitty in the game disturbs Hosking. Oh dear, how sad.

    Well, Mike, I understand you want the game to be nice and Peters and his motley crew might throw awry how you want things to be, but consider this. In your world the game might have looked all nice and stable but from the real world things look a little different. The country you don’t know or see or care about has been raped and pillaged behind that facade.

    Peters might not make things any better but if he gets nasty, takes hostages, threatens, holds to ransom or does anything to get, hold and wield power, fair deal to him. Do anything. The only ethic is to get power and use it.

    You might think that is not right but your mob has rewritten the book. “Your” meaning English and Joyce and “your” meaning the multi media organisations you work for.

    Something else to ponder. How many high profile public figures working for State organisations will have their details, on a ‘no surprises’ policy, handed to Minister Peters?

    • garibaldi 14.1
      25 September 2017 at 1:07 pm

      Excellent Pete, and it’s not just Hosking, it’s all those commercial radio jockstraps.

    • tracey 14.2
      25 September 2017 at 1:25 pm

      Well said. Hosking is still in the past where might is right and how can we not know who won… how do I know I am right if a winner isnt named. Collaboration and consensus are beyond his scope. Most businesses know the old patriarchal system of barking commands does not work on so many levels.

    • Hongi Ika 14.3
      25 September 2017 at 5:53 pm

      If Hoskings had a brain he would be dangerous ?

  15. nzsage 15
    25 September 2017 at 11:34 am

    Kris Faafoi in the Mana electorate did something right.

    Not only a massive increase in his electorate margin but also a big swing to Labour for the party vote.

    Well done Kris, what’s your secret?

    • Frida 15.1
      25 September 2017 at 3:48 pm

      @nzsage – He had great volunteers helping him 😜😉
      His opponent , Euon Farrell, was also notable by his absence. Farrell did turn up to my daughter’s year 5 class and got defensive when any of the 10 year olds asked him anything probing! Hilarious.
      OTOH, the young Labour Kapiti College student who came to the class on behalf of Labour sounds incredible.

  16. Sparky 16
    25 September 2017 at 12:01 pm

    Well as a NZF voter I’m emailing Winston this week to ask the very same thing. That he align with Labour and the Greens. Fingers crossed for us all.

  17. Dot 17
    25 September 2017 at 12:02 pm

    Selfishness and ignorance are not virtues,
    I am sad to realise how many selfish we have in this country,
    disenchantment so it is back to the peace of the garden for a while.

  18. Freddo 18
    25 September 2017 at 12:41 pm

    Bloody Trotter on the AM show this morning saying at one stage “National won the election, without a doubt”, and suggesting Winston pretty much has to go with them. He also said he thinks even two more seats from specials for the left won’t be enough.

    There is a Newshub online article with the video and the headline “‘It’s not enough’: Why Chris Trotter believes Jacinda Ardern won’t be the next Prime Minister”.

    • Freddo 18.1
      25 September 2017 at 1:07 pm

      And now the Herald has picked up Trotter’s AM show comments, and have it as the top story on their mobile website right now. FFS.

      Oh, and Shaw said to the AM show this morning, at the mention from Garner of a possible Lab-NZF Government with Greens giving supply and confidence support from outside. “The Green Party would be unlikely to sign up to that kind of deal”.

    • McFlock 18.2
      25 September 2017 at 1:10 pm

      another political fossil, ossified in the era of FPP.

    • jesuswept 18.3
      25 September 2017 at 2:07 pm

      Agreed. What happens Mr Trotter if the young vote managed 45% of the specials for Labour (hardly inconceivable) and 7% for Greens (ditto). That’s +2 and +1 seats, Nats down to 55, a 55-55 seat split. Yeah a landslide Chris. Best thing about you is, you’re invariably wrong.

  19. infused 19
    25 September 2017 at 1:14 pm

    National got more than Labour and Greens combined. It was not a vote for change.

  20. Pete 20
    25 September 2017 at 2:51 pm

    Reality check.

    To me Saturday was a terrible result. Not disastrous, but terrible.

    Sure the right was down and the left was up. Sure Labour came from nowhere to be in the game. But, I don’t get people getting upset by the words that “National won.” Sure, I’m upset they won, but win they did, look at the scoreboard.

    Some of the talk on here is like saying they scored six penalties but we scored three tries so they didn’t really win. Some of the talk is like, “They cheated and the ref let them get away with murder while we played fair.” Whether they had the reporters, refs and TMOs in their pocket doesn’t come into after the final whistle and the score goes up.

    The Lions consistently cheated, the refereeing was poor and the reporting gutless, there was no big fuss when that was happening, the score is history. The election was the same.

    • Draco T Bastard 20.1
      25 September 2017 at 5:36 pm

      Sure, I’m upset they won, but win they did, look at the scoreboard.

      No they didn’t. Winning would imply that they could form a government by themselves.

      They can’t.

      It’s up in the air and balanced upon the choice of a single political party.

    • tracey 20.2
      25 September 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Sorry Pete but MMP is more like a cricket test match than a rugby scoreboard. Too many people viewing this as a sport, or sporting anaoly.

      Frankly it shows us up as an immature nation politically. So many voters desperately wanting to have a winner declated so they can be officially “”right”.

      Our employers are telling tertiaries they want graduates who can critically think, problem solve and work collaboratively.

      Many of those employers just voted for a non collaborative party, demanding at 46% they be declared the “winner”

      What a confused bunch we humans are

      • repateet 20.2.1
        25 September 2017 at 9:05 pm

        “Our employers are telling tertiaries they want graduates who can critically think, problem solve and work collaboratively.”

        In our school curriculum it says we want kids to learn to think critically, problem solve and work collaboratively too.
        But we don’t really because if we could and did and acted on that the bullshit of the Nats they would be history.

        (While we say we want kids to learn to think critically, problem solve and work collaboratively they’re not part of the National Standards so teachers don’t have to really do those things, they’re not really important. The latest cretinous National Minister is at the level of her idiot predecessors on that.)

  21. Delia 21
    25 September 2017 at 4:47 pm

    If Winston goes with NZ First, his voters may as well have voted National. What was the point?

  22. lurgee 22
    25 September 2017 at 5:40 pm

    Sorry if I sound cynical. I am. If people wanted to change the government, they voted Labour or Greens. I view a vote for NZ First as an attempt to get a toehold in government regardless of who wins.

  23. Hongi Ika 23
    25 September 2017 at 5:56 pm

    Reading these comments above obviously most people on this site do still not understand MMP ?

  24. Baba Yaga 24
    25 September 2017 at 6:09 pm

    “This election was a vote for change.”
    In 2005, Labour and all of it’s support partners lost vote share. Was that a vote for change?
    In 2014, National and all of its support partners lost vote share. Was that a vote for change?

    “But either way, the Nats lost this election.
    That’s a bit premature, when no ‘winner’ has actually been decided. Based on what we know, National is well out in front of the opposition block of Labour + the Greens.

    • Robert Guyton 24.1
      25 September 2017 at 6:19 pm

      Nah, Baba, they’re level-pegging. Winston will decide…

      • Baba Yaga 24.1.1
        25 September 2017 at 7:01 pm

        Sorry Robert, but 46% to 41.7% is not level pegging. But you’re right about Winston.

        • Robert Guyton 24.1.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 8:12 pm

          Yeah, but, each has the same chance of being chosen by Winston, therefore, level-pegging. Sorry, Baba, your house is perched on chicken legs.

    • Cinny 24.2
      25 September 2017 at 6:59 pm

      national have also lost two of the coalition parties that propped them up. The opposition block consists of three parties.

      MMP for the win all day every day.

      • Baba Yaga 24.2.1
        25 September 2017 at 7:09 pm

        1. To include NZF in the opposition block is to assume all of their voters support a change of government. You simply don’t know that.
        2. Labour’s coalition partner, the Greens, had their popular vote fall from 10.7% to 5.85%. That’s hardly an endorsement.
        3. Prior to the election, the Maori Party made it clear they wanted to work with Labour. And Peter Dunne has worked with both Labour and National in the past.

        • mauī 24.2.1.1
          25 September 2017 at 7:17 pm

          “Had Enough?” Wasn’t that on the NZF billboard?

          • Cinny 24.2.1.1.1
            25 September 2017 at 7:22 pm

            Maui I heard an interview with the Pike Families, I think it was last week, they were saying they have some information which will be released after the election.

            Wonder how they are getting on with the Barclay investigation that was re-opened.

          • Baba Yaga 24.2.1.1.2
            25 September 2017 at 7:25 pm

            The Had Enough comment referred to both major parties. That has been Winston Peters line right throughout the election campaign.

            • Robert Guyton 24.2.1.1.2.1
              25 September 2017 at 8:13 pm

              Had Enough did not infer, “had enough of the Opposition Parties” – Baba, you’re in fantasy land.

              • Baba Yaga …
                25 September 2017 at 9:00 pm

                This has been commented on by others here. Winston Peters is on record as condemning both major parties. Peters is not anywhere on record as saying NZF will go with Labour.

        • Cinny 24.2.1.2
          25 September 2017 at 7:18 pm

          Baba, NZF was in the opposition block prior to the election and they still are until they decide, that was the angle I was coming from.

          I don’t want to get into the speculation game, however, the words ‘three is the magic number’ keep ringing in my ears.

          Time will tell, along with the special votes.

          • Baba Yaga 24.2.1.2.1
            25 September 2017 at 7:30 pm

            Yes, I see what you mean, but in the context of the campaign itself, NZF did not stand on a platform of ousting National. I’m seeing many commenters here adding NZF’s votes to the opposition block as if it is a fait accompli that NZF supports a Labour/Green government. That is nothing more than wishful thinking at this stage.

  25. Robert Guyton 25
    25 September 2017 at 6:22 pm

    What Winston wants, Winston will have. All else is noise.

  26. Robert Guyton 26
    25 September 2017 at 6:23 pm

    WINston. Nice.

  27. Hongi Ika 27
    25 September 2017 at 9:39 pm

    Winston got bitten badly by National in the First Coalition Government, I doubt whether he will be silly enough to go back a second time, old Chinese Proverb “Once Bitten Twice Shy” ?

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