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What will 2018 bring for National?

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, January 4th, 2018 - 179 comments
Categories: act, bill english, election 2017, Gerry Brownlee, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national, nick smith, Nikki Kaye, nz first, paula bennett, Politics, same old national, Steven Joyce - Tags:

I almost feel sorry for National. Last year they nearly pulled off what would have been a remarkable election victory and a fourth term in power.

Thankfully for the sake of the country this did not happen. The combination of utter indifference to the big problems the country was facing as well as the plight of the poor and the dirty politics hatchet jobs that National performed as a matter of course eventually caught up with it.

But it is currently is in a relatively healthy position. Polling at 44% of the party vote in the 2017 election is not a result to be sneezed at. Although National has problems. It has no friends apart from a puppet party that survives only because of a sweetheart deal in Epsom that distorts the true intent of MMP.

But National’s ranks are full of those who believe that their correct position is at the top of the pile. Failure of any sort is not tolerated.

There have been claims that Bill English’s position as leader is secure but I am not so sure.

Already Jacinda Ardern healthily outpoints him on the preferred PM status. And I expect this to become even more pronounced. Unlike a couple of poorly performing colleagues she has taken to Government like a real natural. I expect the country’s appreciation for her to continue to increase.

Which is why I believe Bill English will find himself in an increasingly difficult position. He will not be able to counter Ardern’s charm and charisma let alone her intellect. He will increasingly appear to be yesterday’s man no longer capable of doing the only job that matters for National, and that is returning it to power.

This is why the chances of either him standing down as leader or of some sort of coup against him being mounted this year are very high.

And it is not just me.  National insider and occasional Standard reader Matthew Hooton thinks the same.  He believes (NBR paid content) that it is extremely unlikely that English will succeed in being reelected as Prime Minister.  His only prospect is for the current Government to collapse and remorseful voters then returning to National’s fold.  Otherwise its return to power will depend on generational change.  As he says old faces do not win 21st century elections.

Hooton predicts a number of senior members of the National Caucus will need to decide if they go now or if they wait for demotion later on in the year.  He singles out Paula Bennett, Steven Joyce, Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith and thinks they have all done their dash.

And former National Cabinet Minister Philip Burdon also thinks that the chances of an upheaval are high, although he thinks that English is safe at least for now.

From an opinion piece published in Stuff:

Politically it can be assumed that Labour has re-established itself as the dominant alternative option to the National Party. The Greens retain a brand image that almost certainly secures their ongoing relevance in the NZ political scene.

The challenge for NZ First will be for the party to create an identity independent from its founder and current leader Winston Peters.

The National Party in the meantime will have to deal with the agonies of generational change as they replace a time-lined front bench, who with the exception of Bill English (whose leadership is secure) will be under increasingly unsympathetic scrutiny from frustrated and ambitious back benchers. If history is any precedent their challenges have only just begun.

It will be an interesting year.

Who are the pretenders to English’s throne?

Joyce probably thinks he is a prospect but I suspect the $11 billion hole may have sunk his chances as well as his reputation. Although it may have stopped National’s slide in the polls it showed that Joyce is incompetent and should not be trusted with any further power.  And he is clearly one of yesterday’s people.

Judith Collins thinks she has a chance. God loves a trier. Maybe if she makes it Cameron Slater could become chief of staff.  Somehow I do not think this will happen.

Jonathan Coleman also probably thinks that he has a realistic opportunity of nailing the big one.  He is such an unlikeable person, even within his caucus that his chances must be remote.

And they are up against Jacinda Ardern who has already shown herself to be a formidable leader.  I think that National’s caucus will realise their candidacies are not viable.

I suspect National’s caucus will coalesce around Nikki Kaye and use her winning of Auckland Central against Ardern as justification for this.  Although the tactic she used, failing to turn up to any debate where Ardern was present is not a tactic that inspires confidence that she has what is required.  And nothing I have seen of her strikes any sort of fear or concern.

National face a big problem.  While in Government they were very good at the smears and the PR jobs, announcing again and again existing policy and stroking prejudices so that those in talkback land remained supportive.

But they will find opposition much more difficult.  Expect there to be a fair amount of blood on National’s caucus room floor while they sort things out.

179 comments on “What will 2018 bring for National? ”

  1. Roy 1

    Bill will have resigned the day the Gov was formed. He just has to stick around for a while in the hope that the media will give him the old “on his own terms” treatment they gave Key.

    Amy Adams maybe?

  2. Sanctuary 2

    The other problem National face is a lot of their reliable media voices are either going or suddenly seem incredibly passe and/or just past it.

    Leighton Smith, Hoskings, Soper and the dirty politics machine are all going or seem to have rapidly shrunk from long, dark media shadows to rather lined, tired and querulous aging men in the glaring light of a youthful PM and a new generation of journalists.

    I am still astonished how one moment we seemed locked under a (largely undiagnosed) immovable carapace of doleful boomer do-nothing/know nothings and generational change seemed impossible then suddenly, in a trice it seems, that change became not just inevitable, but happening.

    • Aaron 2.1

      I think that’s more of an indication of how much the media sucks up to whoever is in power – not exactly what we’re looking for from our fierce defenders of democracy in the 4th estate 🙂

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3

    Obviously Bill English is going to become King this year because he won the election and Winston.

    There, now Tanz doesn’t need to comment.

    • Nic the NZer 3.1

      “Arthur: The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering silmite
      held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water, signifying by divine
      providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur. THAT is why I am your
      king!
      Dennis interrupting: Listen, strange women lyin’ in ponds distributin’
      swords is no basis for a system of government! Supreme executive power
      derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic
      ceremony!”

    • cleangreen 3.2

      Hahaha OAB 100%

  4. Ad 4

    Bridges with Kaye Deputy.

    Bridges is making all the play he can, and Number 1 would be a big reach for Kaye after all that medical recovery.

    She’s pretty heartfelt on the subject here:

    https://www.nowtolove.co.nz/lifestyle/next-woman-of-the-year/national-mp-nikki-kaye-says-having-breast-cancer-has-been-horrific-and-beautiful-34748

    • Bridges ?
      He is a moron and certainly unelectable, he has the personality of a month old rotten fish.

      Cant see him getting to lead the tired old Tory Party any time soon.

      • Ad 4.1.1

        Not a standard born-to-rule Nat, and a great smile.
        So, pretty similar to Ardern but with more experience at a senior level including Ministerial.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Bridges

        He will continue to get plenty of profile through the Parliamentary contests, so that makes him my odds favourite by the time of National’s next annual conference.

        • OnceWasTim 4.1.1.1

          I ‘tend to agree with you’ Ad (see 8.1.1 below). Plus he’s a bloke, plus he fulfills all those ‘good, wholesome, traditional’ National Party values.
          He could even be the new Jenny Shipley (going forward)

          • Ed 4.1.1.1.1

            Bridges …’good, wholesome values.’
            Are you having a joke?

            • OnceWasTim 4.1.1.1.1.1

              Yep!

              • cleangreen

                Bridges is a clown who just follows the trucking industry and does everuything Steven Joyce says, and does so he will be hated by so many for his destruction of our roads and rail, and remember the 10 Bridges for Northland???

                The nearest thing to 10 Northlands got was singing ’10 guitars’ I believe up there.

                • OnceWasTim

                  Yep – and a couple of days ago on RNZ, he stated how proud he was of his record on ‘trenzport’. That Tearanga Spressway – in all its glory. (The many times I’ve seen it in operation, it’d be one of the most colossal waste of money of all time. It could have been 2 lanes and served the same purpose). Then of course there’s that proposed East-Wess link.
                  I think he still believes – or has talked himself into believing he got the roit bearlinse between road and rail.

                • eco maori

                  +1000 cleangreen PS eco likes matawai to once when I was driving home to Vags from Te tairawhiti I seen about 5 deer on the main Rd there were more on the other side of a seven wire fence
                  Ka pai

          • And how long did Shipley last ?

            Devious, both of them.

        • BM 4.1.1.2

          Lacks a vagina.

          Next National Leader has to be a woman and one that’s a bit of a firebrand, someone who can channel all the anger and annoyance which this government is going to generate.

          That person is Judith Collins.

        • Wensleydale 4.1.1.3

          You could sabotage Bridges’ chances simply by playing reruns of his televised interview with John Campbell regarding deep sea oil exploration. You know, the one where he came across as a shrieking unhinged weirdo with a child-like inability to control himself.

          Angry Simon implodes on Campbell Live

          • OnceWasTim 4.1.1.3.1

            yep! you could do that, but as we know, Soimun as interviewed by the gorgeous Mora producer – and voice-of-reason, has impeccable music tastes. I mean … Nina Simone ….. whoar! And WHO could see anything wrong in a priviledged little drummer boi that comes equipped with a dutiful and dedicated wifey from the Empire. Gorgeous. Such a lovely cupple. And their kuds!!! What???
            GORGEOUS!
            Paula must be SO envious, but my money is she’ll be quicker than a slippery turd down a Tauranga sewer to get ‘SO oooo’ in behind. Aheh… squeak… aheh
            (was that alright Duncan?) aheh aheh – or should I take another Prozac? aheh aheh

      • roy cartland 4.1.2

        I dunno that his electorate is that concerned with what he can or can’t do, or even what he will or won’t. They just need a handsome face (come on, he’s the best looker of the NAT men, you can’t deny it) and a bigmouthed, left-hating, man-of-the -‘people’. He’s the best* of Key, Joyce and Collins in one.

        *worst

    • Kevin 4.2

      Bridges make Key look like the chairman of the local Mensa branch.

      Comes across as an angry, public school twat.

  5. Morrissey 5

    Daisycutter Sports, Inc. is offering the following odds for….

    National Party leader by the end of 2018

    Judith Collins 1-2
    Mike Hosking 2-5
    Allan Titford 2-5
    Steven Joyce 2-5
    Kyle Chapman 1-1
    Bob Clarkson 7-5
    Simon Bridges 7-5
    Amy Adams 3-2
    Gerry Brownlee 5-2
    Nick Smith 4-1*
    Maggie Barry 5-1
    Paul Goldsmith 10-1
    Parmjeet Parmar 15-1**
    Nuk Korako 20-1
    Jian Yang 30-1
    Euon Murrell 50-1
    Don Brash 200-1
    Bill “Double Dipper” English 500-1

    * Provided he can promote this water policy more subtly….
    https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/l/f/i/z/s/image.related.StuffLandscapeSixteenByNine.620×349.1lfi0o.png/1504501119377.jpg

    ** If she ditches her crazy husband.

    • Ed 5.1

      Brilliant. Made me smile.

    • OnceWasTim 5.2

      “** If she ditches her crazy husband.”
      Batshit crazy even!
      I find the whole attitude of politicians and ‘the elite’ among those from the Jewel in the Crown of the British Empire quite interesting.
      Class distinctions are fully functioning to this day (whether they’re dressed up in various guises such as ‘caste’ or religion). The sense of entitlement and self-promotion is astounding at times across the political spectrum.
      Let’s hope the Parmjeet Parmar you have at 15-1 doesn’t get anywhere near leader, or we’ll have politicians getting round in cars with red and blue flashing lights to give them priority, and motorway signs will be covered with National Party advertisements.

      Actually, that Jewel in the Crown is probably the best, and longest example of ‘trickle down’ not working.
      It’s probably also the reason why resorting to various corrupt prctices is the only way ‘the many’ have to survive

      • Morrissey 5.2.1

        India is the home of some of the most brilliant people in the world: Amartya Sen and Arundhati Roy spring to mind, of course, but there are many, many more.

        However, India is also home to the most simple-minded, extremist, oppressive, frightening, racist and violent ideologies on the planet.

        The National Party draws its Indian candidates more from the latter category, I’m sorry to say.

  6. BM 6

    English is sticking around because there’s a high chance that the current government may fall apart.

    If that doesn’t eventuate and Labours still in power at the end of 2018 then he’ll move aside for someone else, most likely Judith Collins.

    • Morrissey 6.1

      You’re dreaming. Not dreaming big, dreaming stupid.

      • BM 6.1.1

        Nope, that’s by far the best strategy.
        There’s going to be an endless run of fuck-ups, backtracks and bad press around this government over the next year, the last thing National wants to do is take the spotlight from them.

        Nationals goal this year is to look as tight and professional as possible, unlike the current clowns in power.

        • Ad 6.1.1.1

          Most of the government’s programme is well in train, and with a huge surplus to spend and the big shifts into Working For Families and NZSuper, Labour is a lock for another term.

          National are struggling to penetrate the news cycle as badly as Goff and Shearer against Key.

          • BM 6.1.1.1.1

            I think there’s going to be some serious financial headwind this year which is going to slow down the economy significantly

            Expect costs to rise, expect to see a lot of disgruntled voters.

            Fairfax is predicting that National will still be in front of Labour throughout 2018 and I don’t think they’re taking into account the economy stalling.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Yes, because everyone remembers the way the electorate blamed the 2008-2011 government for the GFC.

              No, wait… 🙄

              • Ed

                Fairfax is owned by large financial interests who would like extreme right wing policies in place to make them even richer at NZ’s expense.
                Their opinions are not reliable as a consequence.

              • BM

                Was NZ a rockstar economy in 2008 or had Cullen spent all the money and hidden billions of debt within ACC?

                http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10559739

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  😆

                  You still believe Nick Smith’s lies? You still believe in the “Rockstar economy”?

                  Nah, I think you’re just a habitual liar.

                  • cleangreen

                    Ignore BM as he and his ilk want to divert us from assisting the new labour Coalition Government to succeed.

                    Trolls only hang around as long as others resond to their rubbish.

                    Ignore them and they will disappear.

              • Ed

                NZ was described as a rock star economy by a foreign owned bank.
                With our deregulated banking and finance industry, we really are like the Rolling Stones for them.
                And of course the description that NZ was broadcast by the corporate media, which is owned by foreign financial interests.

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  Thanks for jogging my memory, because I had totes forgotten that. What would I do without you to remind me of these well-known events?

              • Rob

                Well actually OAB the electorate did blame the Govt for the GFC. Most people realised that at the speed that Govt debt was decreasing , personal debt bloomed. Also they soon picked on the fact that high income tax was not solving the issues that the population was being forced to throw money at.

            • red-blooded 6.1.1.1.1.2

              Update your thinking, BM. National (by itself, because the blue team is really just them) has to be in front of the coalition, not just in front of Labour in order for them to have a chance of coming back in 2020.

              Bills are starting to come through, and that means the government sets the news agenda. Oh, and BTW, more people like them than the Nats. Sad for you and Judith, but the majority of NZers are quite happy.

          • stunned mullet 6.1.1.1.2

            BM is broadly correct in his strategy proposal, the nets will do little to change their line up in the next 12 months and look to put as many wedges into the current coalition to see if there are any cracks in the parties.

            If there are no major disasters for the current government you can lock them in for at least another term as we all know that it is very rare for governments to change after a single term in NZ, the NZ public just don’t give enough of a damn.

            • BM 6.1.1.1.2.1

              All depends on how badly the economy tanks.

              Six months ago the economy was going great guns, if it all turns to shit this year, it’s fairly obvious who voters are going to blame.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Keep telling yourself that.

              • AB

                “Six months ago the economy was going great guns”
                Translated this means – ‘I was doing OK as were most of the people I know’

                • McFlock

                  ‘I was doing OK as were most of the people I know’

                  … ‘and I don’t circulate with peasants’

              • David Mac

                I don’t think it’ll be down to the severity, but down to how wide the decline is spread.

                The GFC did not hurt our government’s popularity much. The MSM was full of the Wall Street giants tumbling, Detroit going cap in hand to Uncle Sam. NZers were quick to draw the conclusion ‘We have no choice but to get caught up in this, it’s bigger than us.’

                Key used the opportunity to win votes. “When the rest of the world is calling for austerity and slashing, our welfare system will remain as is.”

                • Ed

                  He also used disasters for his own political benefit.
                  He was a moral vacuum- a total ME person.
                  He really was one of the worst PMs to ever happen to NZ.

                  • David Mac

                    He had lot’s of front, showmanship. I think he cut those teeth on Wall Street.

                    It takes special skills to entice smart wealthy people to part with big sums for a play on your roulette wheel of international currency variations.

                    • Ed

                      Special skulls?
                      Or a willingness to betray a country to moneyed interests?

                    • David Mac

                      Special skills.
                      Nobody votes to have their country betrayed…if that’s what happened…I feel a little melodramatic typing it.

                    • Ed

                      No people don’t vote for that.
                      They didn’t vote for that in 1984.
                      They didn’t vote for that in 2008.

                      But in both cases politicians ( Douglas, Key) lies to them and sold New Zealand to foreign interests.

                    • Stunned Mullet

                      Shorter Ed.

                      ‘I hate john Key’

              • Ad

                There is no evidence for the New Zealand economy tanking anywhere.

                The primary risk is real estate debt, and the price lid is sinking just the way it should.

              • roy cartland

                I don’t reckon it *all* depends on how badly the economy tanks due to the coming crash. It depends on how it will be framed i.e. as the current GOV’s fault, rather than the toxic legacy of the Key administration. And it depends on how many NZers there are left to swallow the howling blame of the opposition.

                • Ed

                  The corporate media will frame it as well he government’s fault.
                  However many people don’t believe anything that they read or see in their the msm nowadays.

              • Thinkerr

                Confucious say

                When economy turns to shit, someone just did a big BM

              • Tricledrown

                BM so if it was going great guns how come we had the worst productivity gains in the OECD.
                No wage growth and low per capita growth.

          • Ed 6.1.1.1.3

            Unless they’re have tantrums about their lunch.

        • Tricledrown 6.1.1.2

          BM English is on life support National has never liked loosers.
          The party that claims it represents ambition is full of very ambitious double dealing politicians .
          Many young and not wanting to wait when naked ambition can mean they can achieve this sooner than later when someone else is on the rise.
          Competition BM.
          The pale stale Male is passed his used by Date.

      • Ed 6.1.2

        BM is dreaming Hosking gets his job back.
        The poison at 7 Sharp has gone.

        When will TV3 fire Garner and Richardson?

        • stunned mullet 6.1.2.1

          Why would TV3 fire Garner and Richardson?

            • Ed 6.1.2.1.1.1

              You missed his failed attempt to belittle the PM.
              His bosses will be aware she can go on other shows rather than tolerating his misogyny.

              http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/11/why-mark-richardson-isn-t-celebrating-jacinda-ardern-s-first-month-as-pm.amp.html

              • red-blooded

                Don’t let’s exaggerate, Ed – that’s not “an attempt to belittle the PM”, it’s an awkward moment which Ardern dealt with in a good humoured way ; end of story. And even if he had “belittled” her, that wouldn’t have been a sackable offence. Richardson is hired as a commentator. You and I don’t have to agree with his comments, but even if he said something really extreme it’s hard to imagine that would get him fired.

                And do we want to live in a country in which media personalities are fired because they express viewpoints that are critical of the government? I sure don’t! Think 1984 (“Big Brother is always right.”).

                • Ed

                  His views ( as Morrissey has said ) are disgusting.
                  You read his links about Richardson and Dirty Politics.

                  • Stunned Mullet

                    Shorter Ed

                    “I hate Richardson and Garner – they must be sacked because of stuff”

                • David Mac

                  Yep, extinguishing the voices of those we disagree with is far more dangerous to a healthy society than letting the prats waffle on.

                  • Morrissey

                    I don’t think those idiots should be banned. The more important question is: why are they there in the first place? Why was Paul “Kill them ALL” Henry there before them? It’s not because they are intelligent, perceptive, or hard working.

                    Why is Hosking the host at NewstalkZB in the morning? Why is he followed by Leighton Smith and then, later, by Larry “Lackwit” Williams?

                    None of these fellows is good at his job. None of them adds anything valuable or insightful to any discussion.

                    The reason that Garner, Richardson, Hosking, Henry, etc. are in those positions is precisely because they are useless. They will not rock the boat, they will not question politicians, they will not challenge vested interests—in fact, Hosking and Henry are paid ambassadors for SkyCity, and the whole lot of them are de facto spokesmen for the National Party.

                • eco maori

                  red blooded it is clear that you use neo liberal glasses we need a media that treats everyone fair and just it is clear that those people mentioned above are/were just trying to damage our left humane leaders Mana but it’s the producers/CEO who controls content so they need to RETIRE they are still having a Cup of tea with shonky
                  Ana to kai.
                  I use that New toll road in Tauranga its a dead herring not much traffic on it and when you take the non toll Te puke road it’s stuffed and always choked with traffic one lane with over taking lanes would have been fine to service the traffic bridge uncle probably own the land that was used to build it on lol. The problem with the toll roads is not the cost it is the fucken way one has to pay the tolls if one doesn’t pay in 5 days it goes up 300%
                  And it is this that is the problem we need to come up with a kicks keep it simple way to pay these tolls and the traffic will ease on the Tepuke road and increase on the new lemon. One would have thought that it’s not rocket science to manage our roads but as anything you put neo liberals greed into the equation and its a stuffup the plan should be to invest in high way one and have all these new motorways link up on highway one but no this is to hard for these idiots to grasp especially with the $$$$$ on there glasses. It would not be hard for one to drive on highway one and find places were with a little investment the road could be made safer and cut travel time and save on fuel PS some times I don’t have time to edit my post.
                  Ka kite ano

                  • red-blooded

                    eco maori, your comment doesn’t respond to mine in any way, or link to the topic (media freedom vs perceived attacks on the left).

                    I have no sympathy at all for Richardson or his views, I just don’t believe we should vet the media in an attempt to have them all promoting a particular political viewpoint. That’s a feature of totalitarian governments, and if it’s OK for the left to do it then it’s OK for the right, when they’re in power. People on this site have complained a lot about arseholes like Hosking, Richardson etc, and fair enough, but we also complained when John Campbell was taken off TV3 (yes, I know that was a long time ago now). People perceived this as an attack on the left, assuming that he was taken off because he used to speak up for left wing issues. If (as you seem to think) it’s OK to screen out people whose political views we don’t like, why wasn’t it OK for TV3 to do this at the time? (Answer – it’s not OK, then or now.)

                    The fact is, a democracy should have a range of different public voices, and that includes media voices. Plus, I think we should respect and celebrate the fact that we have a PM who’s perfectly capable of speaking up for herself, thankyou. She doesn’t need protecting from dingbats like Richardson. Ed had posted this comment as an “attempt to belittle” her – that’s bullshit; it was a somewhat sullen silence, and she handled it with good humour and dignity. And let’s remember that it was her response to Richardson’s earlier rubbish about employers having “the right to know” a woman’s plans re children that got Ardern a lot of publicity and approval when she first came forward as leader. The fact is, she’s a bloody good thinker and communicator and we don’t need to try to protect her from people like him. She came out of that encounter as the winner, and it went international because of the way she handled him.

            • Stunned Mullet 6.1.2.1.1.2

              Third rate stenographer outraged by media commentators proceeds to make shit up for the umpteenth time.

            • Ed 6.1.2.1.1.3

              Take it as a compliment that stunned mullet disagrees with you.
              As for myself, I regard you as a first class stenographer.

              • dv

                SM must be looking in the mirror.
                And i agree with you ED
                I appreciate Morrisey efforts.

                • Ed

                  Morrissey adds originality, humour and a perceptive eye on events.

                  • OnceWasTim

                    Agreed, and he’s even prone to piss Kim Hill off from time to time. (And I won’t hear a word said against her!!!!)
                    Like or loathe, at least there’s one critical mind.
                    I wish I could be so cynical, but at my age I’d be in danger of being labelled a curmudgeon – and then I would be in fine company (Brian Edwards and Radio Talkback hosts aside).

                    its either a /sarc or a / :p

        • cleangreen 6.1.2.2

          BM is always dreaming as he/she is paid to make us dream too.
          In it’s own interest it seems.

          The truth is that John Key lied about NZ not facing austerity as he conned us with his line about QUOTE from David Mac at 6
          “Key used the opportunity to win votes. “When the rest of the world is calling for austerity and slashing, our welfare system will remain as is.”

          The truth is we have gone through the wprst austerity program we have ever seen since the 1930’s depression, it was just never declared that National were actually carrying out an austerity program as that would be bad for National during the next elections.

          National were always ‘decieving us all’ but most failed to see it happening and now labour has opened the books and see that all the promises National had made during the last election and earlier had no money there to cover those election promises.

    • savenz 6.2

      Agree with BM, in the sense that if Labour is still in power at end of 2018 Bill will move aside. It might be between Judith Collins and Nikki Kaye.

      It is the Natz fond hope that the government falls apart, but hopefully not going to happen. Dirty politics will be deployed to try to disrupt and destroy the government.

      Also Auckland had more Green and Labour voters than National.

      ROCHE, Denise2838 (Green)
      WHITE, Helen Ione11617 (Labour)
      Total 14,451

      Beat KAYE, Nikki 13,198

      Labour and Greens need to get it together and actually ask voters to vote for one of the other in electoral vote. Also letting Nick Smith get back in via split votes is CRAZY strategy!

    • paul andersen 6.3

      is that move aside with or without knife in back? why dont you put YOUR money where your mouth is and have a bet on whether the government lasts the year. go on, double dare you. I will put up one of bridges bridges that you dont have the guts.

  7. OnceWasTim 7

    Best comment on that Stuff opinion piece goes to Jock Time:
    “Bill is about as secure as a dunny door on a Chatham Island fishing boat.”

    • Ed 7.1

      Like this one too by mustbetheplace

      ‘So they did nothing for 3 terms, but were going to do all this wonderful stuff if only we’d given them a 4th term?’

    • cleangreen 7.2

      Good one there OnceWasTim’

      Giggle. Hope they didnt take epsom salts when stting on the dunnie taking summersalts eh?

  8. gsays 8

    The Tories need to get the secateurs out and get rid of the unproductive, done-its-dash, dead wood. Smith, brownlee, barry, goldsmith for starters.

    Let the next generation through, and their values.

    • Ed 8.1

      Not sure I want Simon Bridges’s values!

      • OnceWasTim 8.1.1

        I sometimes wonder whether Soimun actually believes much of his own spin and bullshit. He might be right up there though in the line to depose Bullshit Bill. He seems incredibly ambitious – or perhaps ‘aspirtional’.

        • AB 8.1.1.1

          Key made mangling the language acceptable, even desirable. Soimun is his netchral successor

      • gsays 8.1.2

        Nor me.
        Apparently, as we have heard repeatedly, 44% of those who voted, do value his values.

    • cleangreen 8.2

      Joyce, the $11 billion dollar man must go too also, as so many see him as a ‘blowhard self centred prick’ – period, and just a ‘liability’ to National now.

  9. Ed 9

    The economy is going to tank and it will be caused by external factors.

    ‘Worst stock market crash ever is coming – Max Keiser on Black Monday’s 30th anniversary’

    https://www.rt.com/business/407274-new-black-monday-coming/amp/
    https://www.rt.com/business/410317-bond-market-crash-prediction/amp/

    • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1

      😆

      He’ll be shorting the market then, since his crystal ball now works so much better than all the other times he’s predicted doom.

    • red-blooded 9.2

      “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”

      Keiser has no credibility. Why are you looking to a Russian TV host for your analysis of kiwi economics?

      • Ed 9.2.1

        NZ is but a tiny player and vulnerable to global events.

      • cleangreen 9.2.2

        red blood

        Are you against financial pundits like Max Keiser https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Keiser

        Max who was also involved in a company he built selling stocks on Wall St affectively was a trader tway before he featured on RT.

        He featured on several other media networks before RT and since too.

        Max was around before the last GFC, and has said several timmes in his RT program that he predicted the crash before it hapend then too.

        So he has credibility there better than most others did before the GFC.

        It is good to recieve differnt views from all sides to find balance.

        After all who said before the last GFC that it was coming then. No body on Wall St that I can recall.

    • Nic the NZer 9.3

      If Max Keiser stops saying this kind of thing gold traders will stop advertising on his channel.

        • Nic the NZer 9.3.1.1

          Exactly zero of his 3 scenarios are triggered by the ‘Worst stock market crash ever’.

          • Ed 9.3.1.1.1

            No you are right.
            However many economists are predicting a crash this year. For a variety of reasons.

            • red-blooded 9.3.1.1.1.1

              The guy you linked to above is a Trumpeter:

              It is clear that the U.S. economy is not taking off like the rocket some predicted after the election:

              President Trump and the Republicans haven’t been able to pass any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see.
              Banks and energy companies are getting some regulatory relief, and that helps, but it’s a far cry from the sweeping health care reform, tax cuts and infrastructure spending we were promised.
              Consumer spending is still weak, so people may be less confident than the sentiment surveys suggest. Inflation has perked up in certain segments like health care and housing, but otherwise it’s still low to nonexistent.

              And he’s got Chinese financial meltdown as one of his “black swans”, giving no more reason than “a market in which “they all think the government will save everything” is generally not one you want to own—but China has been an exception. It won’t remain one forever. The collapse, when it comes, could be earthshaking.” Note the “when it comes” (ie, who knows when?) and “could” (ie, who knows if it will?). Hardly a compelling case, Ed. You seem to be looking for bad news stories, and if they don’t exist, you’re grabbing poorly considered opinion pieces without evaluating their reliability or spin.

                • red-blooded

                  Well, Jim Rogers just seems to have a feeling in his bones… He doesn’t know what will cause it, he doesn’t even want to narrow it down, he just knows it’s going to be the worst crash ever. (“The sky is falling!”)

                  I don’t know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war – unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something.When you’re watching Business Insider and you see, “That’s so interesting. I didn’t know that company could go broke.” It goes broke. Send me an email, and then I’ll start watching.”

                  Note that even if he’s right, he’s talking specifically about the US economy. While it would have ripple effects, it wouldn’t necessarily be dreadful here in NZ.

                  Steve Keen is at least exploring some reasoning about debt ratios. However, while he thinks there may be coming issues for China (no timeline, no indication of severity), he also says “I don’t expect a crisis in the US and UK in the near future. “ and ends with a hopeful comment: “The future offers some hope that this is beginning to change. Some prominent mainstreams economists are now doing some serious navel-gazing at their models (people such as ex-president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Narayana Kocherlakota, and chief economist at the World Bank Paul Romer). But more likely change will come from central banks, and the new generation of economists such as the students who established the Rethinking Economics movement to address the real issues the world faces.”

                  I’m now exiting this conversation, Ed, as I have other things to do. You still haven’t convinced me that the sky’s about to fall, btw…

                  • Ed

                    That’s ok.
                    I hope I’m wrong!

                  • greywarshark

                    Interested ?
                    Rethinking Economics movement cf red blooded
                    http://www.rethinkeconomics.org/about/our-story/

                    Students and professors at the University of Sydney were the first to highlight the narrowness of their economics education, and partially succeeded by opening a political economy department that still exists today. In 1992 a letter was published…..

                    Something good from Australia, that’s nice. And action was starting as early as 1992 elsewhere, just as we were starting to dig our grave deep and wide. I wonder how many decades after everyone else we will start dragging ourselves up again, slimy, dripping with gore and green moss, glazed eyes saying ‘Is there life out there? Is anyone else there?’

                    http://www.rethinkeconomics.org/get-involved/why-reform-the-curriculum/
                    Over the last 30 years, economics education has become increasingly narrow and detached from the real world.
                    Lectures teach one perspective as if it is the only legitimate way to study the economy;
                    seminars ask students to memorise and regurgitate academic theory;
                    whilst exams award those able to solve abstract equations rather than engaging critically with the actual economy and real-world economic problems.

                    • red-blooded

                      Thanks, Greywarshark. I had heard a bit about this (I think Kim HiIl covered it some time back). It’s good to see people stepping up to try to make economic theory more connected into the wider world and thinking about the effects of their policies on actual people and our natural environment – the elements that are missing from so much economic thinking.

                • Nic the NZer

                  “Using the same analysis today, I don’t expect a crisis in the US and UK in the near future. ” – Steve Keen

  10. AB 10

    Bill will not want to be a three-time loser, so he will go.
    However, those waiting in the wings will not want to walk into almost certain defeat in 2020.
    Possibly a useful idiot will step up, take the 2020 loss, and then step side.
    Or possibly the change will be made quite late – so the replacement leader has an excuse for losing (‘new in the job but performed creditably’ etc.) and can survive it.

    • Hanswurst 10.1

      Simon Bridges seems to fit the “useful idiot” description pretty well in that context…

  11. Tanz 11

    Winston will tire of the hydra he created, yes, he gifted Labour govt, they did not earn it, and will run and beg Bill’s forgiveness and beg to be taken in. He wanted to go with National, but English told him to go away, at seven percent support no way was he getting any baubles of office.

    English will stay, the people love him, and National, right now, lead in the polls. Nothing will change that, except their lead will increase as the economy tanks and NZ goes South, it is already happening. More taxes, higher costs of living, etc, Labour always wrecks the good National do. Not for long though. Woman’s Day article, Bill English said he is coming back. Yay!

  12. cleangreen 12

    Winston is a stayer as he has a ‘legacy’ to full-full so dont expect Winston to go so quickly now until he has secured NZ on a safe secure path again to ‘self governmence’ again and remove the national partyy chains that enslaved us all.

    You reallly shoul;d have been at the meeting where Winston laid out his vision for securing NZ future withiout Corporate control. I was there and heard them.

  13. cleangreen 13

    Word corrections; Tanz

    Winston is a stayer as he has a ‘legacy’ to fullfill so dont expect Winston to go so quickly now until he has secured NZ on a safe secure path again to ‘self governmence’ again and remove the national party chains that enslaved us all.

    You reallly should have been at the meeting where Winston laid out his vision for securing NZ future without Corporate control. I was there and heard them.

    • Grey Area 13.1

      Cleangreen – you are responding to a deluded transmission from Planet Key. Don’t waste your time, hit the mental ignore button.

      • cleangreen 13.1.1

        Thanks Grey Area

        I didnt remember my own advice, so thanks for the hand up there.

        The sorry part is that the National trolls dont even recognise the mess they have now left us all in.

        Including them also; – as they will most oftern own ‘coastlal properties’ that they believed were to increase prices faster than other properties.

        here is what I wrote about their demise as it is fitting as to “what has 2018 got for National”? I hope you enjoy this one.

        Hey National supporters; – wasn’t it so thrilling to see the “well heeled” National supporters crying on TV tonight about their fancy “beachfront houses” being flooded with sea water today, – as they felt as though ‘their world was ripped apart’ eh!

        Well you rich tory pricks, – now you feel like we 99% have for the last 9 yrs.!!!!

        While you engaged in the highly speculative property bubble that you’re mate john key talked you into borrowing so much for your over priced flooded beach palace, that now will be worth much less due to becoming now rezoned as “in a coastal hazard zone”

        I feel sorry for your greed.

    • Ed 13.2

      Responding to Tanz and James and others is a waste of your mental energy.
      I stopped replying 4 days ago.

  14. Tanz 14

    trouble is, NZ First are now below the five percent threshold and he won’t be any sort of kingmaker next time. Celebrating that already!! So not democratic, any person with half a brain knows that. And I could imagine the hows of derision from this site had he gone right!

    • Nic the NZer 14.1

      “Arthur: The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering *samite
      held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water, signifying by divine
      providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur. THAT is why I am your
      king!
      Dennis interrupting: Listen, strange women lyin’ in ponds distributin’
      swords is no basis for a system of government! Supreme executive power
      derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic
      ceremony!”

      * With thanks to Grant for the correction.

    • BM 14.2

      Going by the number of deluded dingbats on whale oil who were taking in by Peters bull shit and are now standing there holding their cocks and feeling like the stupid gullible fucks that they are.

      Unless he’s gifted a seat, NZ First is dead and buried in 2020.

    • Brian Tregaskin 14.3

      Happy New Tanz
      Prediction for 2020 Election:-
      1:NZ First will be gifted a seat–Labour will pull the candidate
      2:National will do likewise — national will pull the candidate for Epsom

  15. Tanz 15

    BM – Even if he was gifted a seat, which is likely under Labour, desperate to stay in power, it won’t work. The wider electorate has seen Winston, finally, for the charlatan that he is. A safe seat won’t save him as it would be seen as a dirty deal and voted against, and Winston himself has lost all credibility. It really was about the baubles of office, and the most he could get.

    • BM 15.1

      You reckon Labour would gift Peters a seat?, a bit of a slap in the face for the Greens.

      • Brian Tregaskin 15.1.1

        Yep if that what it takes to win the 2020 Election and retain the status-quo. No question !!!

        • BM 15.1.1.1

          What about the Greens?

          Do you think they’ll agree to the same arrangement in 2020?

          • Craig H 15.1.1.1.1

            Hopefully not, relying on a safe seat hasn’t been a very good long term plan for anyone so far as support has dwindled over time for the smaller parties that have tried it. There’s also the tactical risk of being knocked out of Parliament if you lose the seat for whatever reason e.g. the relationship with Labour or National breaks down.

        • Ed 15.1.1.2

          I highly recommend you ignore BM, James, Tanz and others.

    • Brian Tregaskin 15.2

      Tanz on the flip side Epsom is a gifted Act seat and that has never hurt National at all Im pretty sure the only people that will cry foul is National voters if NZF is gifted a seat
      (Stress NZF if winston retires)

  16. Tanz 16

    Nothing would surprise me. Yes, I do reckon they would, so that they could stay in power, as Peters won’t be able to gift them govt next time. with NZ First shedding support bigtime. It would backfire though. Roll on next election, one where what the majority voted for is actually honoured.

    • Brian Tregaskin 16.1

      Tanz the big problem with National is their policies actually work against many of the people that voted for them. people are starting to realise that now and that will only be amplified.

    • swordfish 16.2

      “with NZ First shedding support bigtime”

      You appear to be heading off into the realms of fantasy there.

  17. OnceWasTim 17

    Oh CHRIST! Tanz is back. Ya can’t leave ya bloody keyboard for half a minute Eh?
    Nek Minnut some troll on a roster is up and at ya with words of ideological wisedom.
    Yes @Tanz. We know. Ya got the most votes (44% of a masterpiece)

    I’ll go back to my nanna nap

    • Ed 17.1

      Best to ignore…..

      • OnceWasTim 17.1.1

        but but but @ED!. We Can’t ignore them! They got the most votes!
        Don’t you care about democracy man? THE M O S T Votes! Forty fucking Four percent! The Most!!! It’s a bloody travesty that we have a government that only managed to conjour up a majority! Don’t you understand? They got the most!!!
        /sarc

  18. greywarshark 18

    Blinglish is on the cover of one of the womens weeklies with his well groomed wife looking attractive and brown which accentuates how he looks very white and gaunt.
    If that is the best that the cuddly RW media can do for him they aren’t doing; him any favours. He should sack them and get a better team of cheerleaders.

    • Ed 18.1

      Which one?

      • greywarshark 18.1.1

        I couldn’t possibly comment. It would be foolish to give him what turned out to be good advice if he took note of it. I don’t wish for anything good from the present Nats, they are all painted stones.

      • greywarshark 18.1.2

        Do you mean which WWeekly? Just look at the magazine celebrity covers in the supermarket, great exposure.

        OncewasTim
        Glad you put sarc. You were getting so vehement there I was concerned for your blood pressure.

  19. Obtrectator 19

    Nikki Kaye. Kaye is an anagram of “a Key”, so it stands to reason …. 🙂

  20. JustMe 20

    For 9 long years the National government sat on its hands when it came to important issues like housing, poverty, health-care, education etc,etc.etc.
    The National MPs you mentioned all appear to have gone way past their ‘Used By dates’. They are looking old and feeble.
    English will go down in history as a Double Dipping and a prolific liar. And if he didn’t have hands he would have a problem when making gestures. I said in the Stuff article in my feedback that perhaps English uses his hands alot to take attention away from his face whilst he is telling porkies(aka lies).
    Nick Smith once took a bunch of journalists to a traffic island somewhere in Auckland to show them a possible ‘housing estate’. What he did showed to me how out of touch with reality he and his colleagues were when in government.
    Steven Joyce didn’t bother to go to the Bay of Plenty to view the pollution caused when the Rena ran aground on the Astrolab Reef.
    Gerry Brownlee bullied an airport employee by claiming that he was ‘running late for a plane’.
    Paula Bennett breached beneficiaries right to privacy by given their details to the NZ media. One kind of wonders if she had some link to the breach of privacy in regards to Winston’s pension overpayment.
    Jonathan Coleman looks weak and as Paul Henry once called him a ‘twat’.
    Nikki Kaye could be worth watching. But she needs to gain some credibility and I don’t think National MPs have credibility.
    Simon Bridges might be the next leader of the NZ National Party. But he looks too baby-faced and perhaps his links with John Key would be the death knell for him.
    Todd McClay seems reasonably okay but then what past does he have that he doesn’t want the NZ voters to know about?
    All an all National needs a thorough and ruthless tidy up – a slash and burn as we may well say – in time for the next election. If they hold onto the old and feeble ones like English, Brownlee, Joyce, Collins, Bennett, Coleman and Smith they may be cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

  21. peterlepaysan 21

    English is, and always has been a Treasury robot, his hard drive was made there.
    Humanity is non existent, only hypothesis matters.
    His “double Dipton , not a good look” greed revealed a serious lack of moral compass.
    Mind you that probably accurately reflects national party mps and their well heeled corporate supporters.
    As a Treasury robot recieving instructions from Crosby Textor he may well survive as leader. I doubt Crosby Textor could spin him out of harms way from his own caucus.

    Anyone running a sweepstake on who will be the next nat party leader?

    • BM 21.1

      Jesus, what a load of hackneyed old kak.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 21.1.1

        Bill ‘Toddle off’ English,
        Crusher Collins,
        Steven ‘have I got a hole for that dildo’ Joyce,
        Nick ‘don’t swallow’ Smith,
        Gerry ‘Action Man’ Brownlee,
        Simon ‘wakey-wakey!’ Bridges,
        Johnathan ‘rank incompetence’ Coleman,
        Jamie-Lee ‘don’t you know who I am?’ Ross, etc. etc.

        But why ignore the obvious replacement, Paula ‘Zip it, sweetie’ Bennett. Sharp as a whip.

        BM, what a load of hackneyed old kak indeed – spot on description that.

      • greywarshark 21.1.2

        BM ^^
        This from the Master.

  22. Thinkerr 22

    I think National likes having no friends. It wants to win the election by being the biggest polling party and able to govern by itself. It nearly made it this time. Remember, it wants to bring back FPP.

    Jacindas smile and PR skills will only last as far as budget night. Then Labour will either gain support based on a sound, costed budget that ticks the boxes people wanted National to tick, or its support will tank.

    Bill thinks National won the election then had it stolen by Winnie. So, he brought back the old guard to the front benches thinking of it as a winning formula, and experienced enough to challenge the coalition. Surley theres someone further back who can see the wood for the trees. my money is on Bridges.

    Part of what changed the government is a generational thing. The current National Party is a vehicle for successful babyboomer self-entitlement. Generationally, I thinh there will be a swing towards the environmental issues. Right now, the left doesnt win elections, the right loses them. Over time, I see that chamging.,

  23. millsy 23

    Peronally I dont give a shit about National. All they stand for now is screwing over people, the country and the environment for profit.

    But for what it is worth, my pick for leader by year’s end will be Amy Adams. No particular reason, other than she seems to be to less garish than the others. Having a dairy farming background would help her case too. Good optics.

  24. Anne 24

    Well, they might end up doing the same as Labour. Install or keep the current leader and if that doesn’t work try another one. And if that doesn’t work try another. And if that one doesn’t work try yet another one. And if that doesn’t work… and so on until finally somebody does work. 😉

  25. Tanz 25

    English did win the election (outpolling Labour and Ardern as she herself admitted on the night, how could he not have), and it was stolen by Winston. This is Winnie’s last hurrah though, NZ First already polling below 5 percent only a few months in. So who will save Labour next time, when National outpolls them then?? The next time we will see National being able to govern alone. Winston First will at last be consigned to the history books. Revenge really is a dish best served cold!

    • cleangreen 25.1

      English = gone by lunchtime next month.

    • Grey Area 25.2

      …crackle…pop…squeal…transmission from Planet Key but can’t make any sense of it. That’s a relief!

      • Incognito 25.2.1

        Much of the signal coming from Planet Key is sucked in by a massive black hole ca. 11.7 billion light-years from here known as Joyce’s Hole. The majority of the signal (44.4%) reaches Earth albeit heavily distorted and then needs to be transformed into plain English through a nifty device called a Gobbledygook Generator (http://www.plainenglish.co.uk/gobbledygook-generator.html). And even then only ‘very special’ individuals can understand its meaning thanks to their extraordinary perceptive & intellectual skills that they acquired through birth.

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