Daily Review 23/07/2018

31 comments on “Daily Review 23/07/2018 ”

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1. Anne 1

   23 July 2018 at 5:42 pm

   Trump threatens to halt Iranian oil exports cos he’s decided he doesn’t like them. Iran responds with a veiled threat of their own and scoffs at his suggestion he could halt their oil exports. Trump responds today with the following:

   Donald J. Trump
   ✔
   @realDonaldTrump
   To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

   Pot calls the kettle black. Trump is effectively threatening any nation who stands up to his bullying antics by threatening to “press the button”.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12093850
   • BM 1.1

     23 July 2018 at 5:57 pm

     He’s trying to force up the price of oil.

     The US dollar increasing in value + higher oil prices equals good for the US economy

     https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-High-Can-Trump-Push-Oil-Prices.html
     • Graeme 1.1.1

       23 July 2018 at 6:25 pm

       Quite a poignant paragraph in that link,

       “Moreover, there is an even more poignant example of the Trump administration’s willingness to sow chaos without much thought to the consequences. The unexpectedly stiff tariffs on China have sparked retaliation, with major Chinese tariffs set to go into effect on U.S. soy, corn and pork. The American agricultural industry is up in arms, a constituency that largely supported Trump in the 2016 election.

       Turmoil in the aluminum market is one thing, but enraging American farmers is another.”

       And gas prices. At $100 / barrel the good ol’ boys will be grizzling a bit when they fill up the pickup

       Could get messy, could get real messy
       • Anne 1.1.1.1

         23 July 2018 at 6:41 pm

         Could get messy, could get real messy.

         Hope you’re right. Nothing would amuse me more than watching his own supporters roaring with rage. They foisted a demented president on the world so let them reap the consequences.
         • In Vino 1.1.1.1.1

           23 July 2018 at 8:21 pm

           Poignant?? Do you mean ironic? Please explain if I have misunderstood and assumed that somebody used a word without knowing its meaning.
           • Anne 1.1.1.1.1.1

             23 July 2018 at 8:30 pm

             I think you’re referring to Graeme @1.1.1

             He quoted from BM’s link.
             • In Vino …

               23 July 2018 at 10:02 pm

               Thanks Anne
               After quickly skimming BM’s link, I don’t think that either Nick Cunningham or Graeme have any idea of what poignant means.
               Rather poignant, really.
       • BM 1.1.1.2

         23 July 2018 at 6:45 pm

         And gas prices. At $100 / barrel the good ol’ boys will be grizzling a bit when they fill up the pickup

         All depends, normally the US falls as oil rises if Trump can skew that so the dollar increases as oil prices increase then the US is making a shit ton of money off their oil reserves and the voter public ain’t taking it up the chook at the pump.

         Big win for Trump and the Saudi’s and Putin and any other country who makes money off oil.
         • Andre 1.1.1.2.1

           23 July 2018 at 9:01 pm

           You’re making the mistake of thinking something resembling rational thought and planning is happening inside the rotting halloween jack’o’lantern.
           • BM 1.1.1.2.1.1

             23 July 2018 at 9:04 pm

             You’re making the mistake of overcomplicating things and looking for stuff that isn’t there.

             The best and most successful plans are the simple ones.
             • Andre …

               23 July 2018 at 9:14 pm

               Ilan Goldenberg sums it up on twitter better than I ever could

               “Don’t worry. This is just step A of Trump’s standard nonproliferation strategy

               1. Scary sounding tweets threatening nuclear war

               2. Agree to summit with no plan whatsoever & then declare victory

               3 Get taken to the cleaners in follow on negotiations”

               https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/07/donald-trump-threatens-to-annihilate-iran-but-no-one-really-cares/
           • McFlock 1.1.1.2.1.2

             23 July 2018 at 10:16 pm

             I also suspect that the interests of the USA aren’t the same as the interests of people who profit from high oil prices.
       • Exkiwiforces 1.1.1.3

         23 July 2018 at 7:29 pm

         I was having a look at the oil futures market last month as there is bloke who has taken a huge punt that the oil price will go a $100 plus within 12mths or the end of the yr. The scary thing is that this guy has about a 97% Strike rate at getting it right, but low oil prices is one of the reasons why we have low interest rates and low inflation atm and if and when the price of oil starts heading Nth again expect to interest rates along with inflation to start moving Nth.
     • AsleepWhileWalking 1.1.2

       23 July 2018 at 6:49 pm

       We have a four year supply gap in crude oil production due to kick in the end of this year.

       https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/109505/looming-energy-shock

       Prices were going to climb sharply anyway. Great time for those govt morons to add more fuel taxes.
       • RedLogix 1.1.2.1

         23 July 2018 at 7:43 pm

         This time it won’t matter so much; renewables and associated technologies are already cheaper, oil price rises will only hasten their adoption.

         Here’s one I’ve been following, a new solar technology using a class of conductors called pervoskite that has the potential to be at least half the cost of silicon PV’s. Still in the early stages, but shows promise:

         https://www.perovskite-info.com/

         It’s also why the article you linked to demonstrates a huge drop in fossil carbon production investment … the smart money in town already knows that it’s days are numbered.
         • RedLogix 1.1.2.1.1

           23 July 2018 at 10:55 pm
       • BM 1.1.2.2

         23 July 2018 at 8:32 pm

         Great time for those govt morons to add more fuel taxes.

         Agree that’s some seriously dumb shit, this government really has me scratching my head as to what they’re doing?

         Do they actually know what they’re doing? that’s the million dollar question.
         • AsleepWhileWalking 1.1.2.2.1

           24 July 2018 at 2:53 am

           The Edsel of politics?
   • Andre 1.2

     23 July 2018 at 8:57 pm

     Melania just needs to pry the phone out of his stubby fingers, burp him, swaddle him in his cot, and turn the lights out. Maybe he won’t be so cranky in the morning.
2. RedLogix 2

   23 July 2018 at 6:44 pm

   The cartoon in the OP is of course a delusion.

   First of all there is no unidimensional ‘fence line’ in life. You could argue on a global scale that the absolute poverty line (defined roughly as an income lower than $1 per day) might count, but that’s neither especially germane to the point, nor does anyone in NZ fall below this. Everyone can see the game if they care to.

   And while clearly some people are much better off than others, it’s not obvious there is any simple ‘box’ you can give everyone to make everyone all the same. We all differ in so many different dimensions there is simply no rational mechanism to determine exactly what each individual needs to create ‘equity’ with everyone else as the second panel implies.

   The third panel actually expresses the real problem quite inadvertently. The very few people who do extremely well, are so far ahead of everyone else, there really is no sane way to make us all equal, short of actively preventing anyone from excelling or succeeding at anything. This applies to any human activity, not just wealth.

   Inequality is real, but it’s a far more subtle and pervasive problem than this irritatingly simplistic little cartoon presents.
   • greywarshark 2.1

     23 July 2018 at 6:54 pm

     RL
     Equity looks reasonable to aim at.
     • RedLogix 2.1.1

       23 July 2018 at 7:15 pm

       It sounds good I agree, but drill into the details and it collapses. Fast.
   • Gabby 2.2

     23 July 2018 at 7:09 pm

     Oh god no, a cartoon that isn’t an economics treatise. We will all become stupid now.
     • RedLogix 2.2.1

       23 July 2018 at 7:16 pm

       Fair enough … but exactly was it meant to convey? And why is it so often linked to as some kind of lefty wisdom, when plainly it isn’t.
   • Macro 2.3

     23 July 2018 at 8:16 pm

     Everyone can see the game if they care to.
     When were you last in NZ Red? And did you actually take time to see what we have now in this god-forsaken country?
     It’s nothing like it was even 5 years ago.
     I’m involved with the local food bank and with the homeless here in Thames (which in a population of around 7500, has at least 30 people sleeping rough every night). If you were to take the time to talk to these people you would find that lifes circumstances have dealt them a very heavy blow, and no! they do not have the where-with-all to see the game, and very little chance to ever.
     It’s a false to say that for people in NZ all you need is $1 a day! This is not some undeveloped country – suffice to say though – we are rapidly heading in that direction.
     • RedLogix 2.3.1

       23 July 2018 at 8:47 pm

       Given we may yet land up in Thames in the medium-term future I can only hope we meetup sometime Macro. And yes helping those around you is absolutely part of the solution, even if sometimes all you can do is listen respectfully. Thanks.

       Yes the absolute poverty line in NZ is higher than it is globally, that’s a fair point. But while I may not have lived in NZ the past five years or so, I’m certain it’s still substantially better than many other countries I’ve worked in. You have to ask what you are comparing to.

       The causes of people landing up right at the bottom of the heap are many and complex; and of course a decade of National Party stupidity only intensified the problem. But every society has people in this position, and there is much research looking at the complex causes of homelessness and associated struggles. And obviously many need help, or at the least a more benign environment, to get their lives back together.

       But if you’ve listened to their stories you’ll also know that you can’t change someone else’s life unless and until they want it to happen as well. I’m not arguing a binary personal/social responsibility case here because demonstrably both are insufficient. The optimum path has to be something that intelligently combines both.
       • Macro 2.3.1.1

         23 July 2018 at 11:57 pm

         Given we may yet land up in Thames in the medium-term future I can only hope we meetup sometime Macro.

         I’d look forward to that Red.
3. Ed 3

   23 July 2018 at 8:13 pm

   We need to be brave like Portugal.

   ‘Portugal Dared to Cast Aside Austerity. It’s Having a Major Revival.
   At a time of mounting uncertainty in Europe, the country has defied critics who insisted on austerity as the answer to the Continent’s economic and financial crisis.

   ……….But as the misery deepened, Portugal took a daring stand: In 2015, it cast aside the austerity measures its European creditors had imposed, igniting a virtuous cycle that put its economy back on a path to growth. The country reversed cuts to wages, pensions and social security, and offered incentives to businesses.

   The government’s U-turn, and willingness to spend, had a powerful effect. Creditors railed against the move, but the gloom that had gripped the nation through years of belt-tightening began to lift. Business confidence rebounded. Production and exports began to take off — including at Mr. Rivera’s olive groves.’

   https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/business/portugal-economy-austerity.html
   • indiana 3.1

     24 July 2018 at 9:44 am

     Excellent, you found an article that validates how capitalism can lift a country. Government spending may have increased, but not government ownership of industries.
4. Ed 4

   23 July 2018 at 8:38 pm

   Craig Murray om Twitter.

   ‘”They may be jihadists but they are our jihadists”. Fascinating that the “White Helmets” are being brought straight to UK with families when the Afghan and Iraqi military interpreters were not. The British government does not do this from humanity or obligation.’
5. AsleepWhileWalking 5

   24 July 2018 at 2:49 am

   Wired Talk. Fascinating. Did you know the vein pattern inside you is unique?

   https://youtu.be/Qjqa8oTikP8

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