Right wing plunges in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, April 29th, 2024 - 52 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first, polls - Tags:

We were told it would rock the entire Parliament and this latest One News Verian Poll and it will.

I can sense a deathly silence in the halls of Government once this poll result came out.

The results are:

National – 36% down 2

Act – 7% down 1

NZ First – 4% down 2

Labour – 30% up 2

The Greens – 14% up 2

Te Pati Māori – 4% stable

The right wing have 43% and the left wing have 48% presuming TPM keep an electorate seat. And Winston would be gone.

On these figures there would be a change of Government if an election had been held today.

Labour really need to get campaigning. This could be the first one term National led Government ever.

52 comments on “Right wing plunges in latest poll ”

  1. Peter 1

    Very recently we had an election. Polls: Maiki Sherman tonight said something ridiculous like "polled out of power."

    • observer 1.1

      We did indeed have an election. People voted for what they were promised … by Luxon, on the very same TVNZ.

      Luxon said National’s tax relief would give $250 a fortnight to a family of four.

      If the May budget doesn't deliver, their polling will only get worse. But it won't deliver, because their numbers were always a lie.

      Election 2023: TVNZ leaders’ debate – Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Christopher Luxon go head to head – NZ Herald

      • Mike the Lefty 1.1.1

        I'm still waiting for Luxon to fulfil his pre-election promise to lower my cost of living.

        Just about everything costs more than it did six months ago.

        • James Simpson

          Are you wanting deflation?

          • Mike the Lefty

            He repeatedly promised that National would lower the cost of living during pre-election debates.

            I want that promised honoured.

            How he does it is not my problem.

            But I think he will simply forget the promise and hope the rest of us do.

        • And the promise of getting tough on crime ?

          He can't blame Labour for the last smash and grabs and bashings.

          Time to deliver Luxon and his band of cronies and show how tough you are.

    • AB 1.2

      It was potentially confusing language for sure.

      She claimed that it was rare for a newly-elected government to be behind the opposition in a political poll so early in their term. With only two previous cases: Clark in 2006 and and Key in 2015. Both were newly-elected third-term governments, not a first-term government like this one. A potentially significant point that Sherman should've been given more time to explain properly. But it's far too easy to hyperventilate over single polls.

      What are the odds on the courageous and dynamic Luxon with his well-documented and relentless focus on delivery, now ringing up Swarbrick and saying, "Chloe, these ACT and NZF regressives are dragging me down. Want to come on board so I can sideline them?" I'm sure all those National supporters who are so critical of the Greens for not wanting to work with National, would applaud him fulsomely if he did so.

  2. Tony Veitch 2

    I think Christopher Luxon needs to be congratulated!

    He's managed to do in 6 months something which usually takes a 3 term government: completely pissing voters off!

    Woo hoo!

  3. observer 3

    Polls are always reported as dramatic change, but the real headline is much more revealing (and much less sexy, which is why it's not the headline). It's the lack of any boost for the coalition since it began, as they implement their programme, even under urgency.

    This is the first government in MMP history, and especially the first PM, to have no honeymoon whatsoever. That's undeniable now.

    People voted Labour out, no question about that. But they didn't vote in Muldoon powers for Ministers, going backwards on smoking, huge rates rises (because that's what the new non-policy on water means), major health service cuts, and so much more.

    • Anne 3.1


      Despite the breathless rendition which initially had me wondering if WW3 had started, I couldn't help but notice Maiki Sherman's reference to… "Luxon having inherited massive challenges from the last government etc." We know that line was codswallop so why did she mention it? What they inherited was the aftermath of a global pandemic which left huge challenges for every single country on the planet. NZ on the other hand has been internationally praised for their handling of both the pandemic and its aftermath.

      Funny… that piece of info. never seems to be mentioned by MSM.


      • adam 3.1.1

        For all my anti labour party stichic I think you will find, I've never actually slammed Grant Robertson. He operated strictly within the bounds of liberal economics. So if the current government has an issue, maybe they should have a wee look at those open public books again.From the period of the pandemic and the start of the baby boomer retirement. My criticism of the last government stands, hard right economics is horse shit. That said, we just need to look at the current lot of talking ministers, to let us know how collectively dumb this lot are.

      • Patricia Bremner 3.1.2

        Anne, Maiki is "following" Much Mackay. She needs to practice the "wide eyes"

        We may have believed it more.devillaugh

        To Luxon NZ First and Act.

        We voters, that's how we "roll" when we are not happy.

        Roll on the Poll about Rates Insurance Shonkey Bills Fast Track Wreckers COC and all.

    • adam 3.2

      major health service cuts = open class warfare

      • Graeme 3.2.1

        And that's also within National's core voter base. Not being able to get your hip done changes the conversation a bit at the golf club.

        • Belladonna

          You haven't been able to get your hip done (within any reasonable timeframe) within the public health system for years. It's regarded as 'elective surgery' and is routinely deferred, or you are made to reapply, or the 'points' required mysteriously change so you're dropped from the list.

          And is the reason that most of the golf club have private health insurance.

          It's the OAP at the RSA who will be more concerned over the current wait list potentially getting worse.

          • Graeme

            The private surgery still relies on public ICU cover for when things go wrong. So taking funding away from the public system restricts the availability of private options.

            I mentioned golf clubs in a figurative sense, groups of people who vote national until National's antics start to affect them, then they grizzle and maybe change their vote.

            • Belladonna

              Perhaps a poor choice of both the example of the surgery and the social group, in that case.

  4. bwaghorn 4

    shane jones is openly corrupt, and luxons is doing nothing but cheering him on,

  5. Phillip urel 5

    A clear favourite for this week's over-egging award ..

    Shifts in polls of a couple of points..really mean diddley-squat…

    And given what they have done/are doing…I expected more of a shift ..

    • bwaghorn 5.1

      It'll keep coming, a story on te news telling of skilled people leaving , heavy construction gear sitting idle,

      Fuckers are to thick to have learnt austerity doesn't work.

  6. adam 6

    Mickysavage, it will be the first one term national government. Not could be, will be.

    • mickysavage 6.1

      I hope and intend to do my best to ensure that you are right …

      • Grey Area 6.1.1

        Likewise. Any idea what individuals can do help Mickey?

        (I've re-joined the GP to make some local connections).

        • thinker

          You just need to get the message out to people, some of whom will be swinging voters.

          I said before the election this could be a one term government, but kind of hoped rather than believed. Now, it seems possible.

          No doubt the May budget has no chance of boosting Luxons popularity and every chance of dropping it. Literally thousands of people are going to be jobless at his hands. Despite how you fudge the numbers the government will borrow money while cutting taxes. And, despite the rhetoric that it's all for the good of the poor, the wealthy are going to do rather better than the poor.

          Right now, this is the message to spread, so people are ready to see it with their own eyes.

          Going forward, the risk is they will roll Luxon to polish their tarnished image, so there's another message of a sign to watch out for.

          The elephant in the room is why Winston went along with being Deputy PM for the first half of the term. Leading up to the next election, whoever is Deputy PM will get a lot more free media exposure. So, if I were Winston, I'd be thinking of an opportunity to tilt against Seymour's vote share by calling him out, good for Winston but not positive for the coalition. Since when was Winston a team player? So, there's another sign to tell people to watch for, a bit later on.

          In a nutshell, the left couldn't win in 2023 because Luxon promised everything to everyone, including some important things he can't easily deliver on. But, come 2026, the right will, I think, have that reputation, plus one of not being able to be trusted (which is probably the major reason for the current drop in the polls).

          • Phillip urel


            In a myth-building busting exercise…

            Labour did not lose because lux-on promised stuff..

            Labour were thrown out because they failed to deliver on the promises they made to get elected…

            (One would hope they have taken on board the lessons to be learnt from that…)

          • SPC

            WP knows very well

            1. his party have never had a two term coalition with anyone.

            2. he has yet to complete a full term as a coalition partner of National.

            Thus how unwise it would have been to be deputy in the second half of the government term.

    • Kat 6.2

      Luxon and his bluebells will blame it on the govt being a coalition not a true National govt. The writing was on the wall from the start, have the minor party's made out to be the baddies (but not really Act…… nudge nudge wink wink) and any meltdown will be painted as Winston's fault.

  7. Mike the Lefty 7

    The opposition outpolling a new government after only six months???

    Has that ever happened before in New Zealand?

  8. Binders full of women 8

    Everyone s sick of the Atlas Network.

  9. observer 9

    Looking back through the history of preferred PM polling …

    Luxon's is lower than all these previous PMs: Key, English, Clark, Ardern, and even Shipley. Generally much lower.

    He is level with Hipkins' worst polling in 2023 (before a defeat).

    Summary for each election here (where available):

    Category:Opinion polling in New Zealand – Wikipedia

    It's really not "just one poll". It's an established pattern, as long as Luxon's been there.

  10. ianmac 10

    Wonder if that system of + – of approval will be published. Last time Luxon was behind Hipkins. And now?

  11. feijoa 11

    Pleased to hear Maiki Sherman use the word


    We need to call it like it is

  12. roblogic 12

    Luxon is weak and unable to control his mad dog coalition partners.

    Surely some Nats are aware of the problem and want to stay in government? They need a drastic course correction – it's clear that they have gone too far too fast with their 100 days of arson.

    Judith Collins will be sharpening her stilettoes

  13. newsense 13

    Luxon missed an incompetent minister. A mirror would help him find the worst performed. Poorly prepared, doesn’t listen, doesn’t have a broad frame of reference to make decisions from. Surrounded by opportunists and international con men and women whom he prefers to believe. Spouts jargon, babble and tells people up is down and down is up.

    Crisises ignored, diplomats ignored, coalition poorly managed, wasn’t ready to deal with the challenges in front of the country when he took office, manufactured others instead, and failed to offer any solutions to either real or illusory problems.

    Making Liz and Kwasi look competent.

    • Patricia Bremner 13.1

      yes We should all post him a mirror.

    • Jack 13.2

      You are on to it!

    • Jack 13.3

      His body language and manner give him away. Always running somewhere else, speaking quickly and failing to give the people he is answering their due. He comes across as scared.

      • Phillip ure 13.3.1

        His interviewing style is to give an answer ..and in reply to the follow up..to repeat that answer..and in the next follow up..he repeats it for a third time..

        And by this time the interviewer gives up…and moves onto another question..

        And I agree with the commenter above who noted he is always on the run..

        ..he doesn't stand and face questions…his body language is that he should be somewhere else.. doing something far more important..

  14. satty 14

    There are some good points in this article (don't like the title though):

    Stuff – Has Christopher Luxon caught the incumbency curse?

    It's mainly down to cost-of-living at the moment and that didn't improve (yet):

    It’s unsurprising that New Zealanders are not feeling good about the economy. Inflation is persistent and the country is in a second shallow recession. Rents and interest rates stay high while petrol has crept back towards NZ$3. This last one is crucial – a Labour insider a long time ago told me that the party would never win the 2023 election if petrol was over 3 bucks a litre, and it was in the weeks surrounding that election.

    And one would think that inflation will go down eventually, which might improve the support for the government:

    Sunak has now turned to a “wait and hope” strategy – cutting taxes several times and pushing off the election date for as long as possible to see if the economy turns the corner. This plan won’t work for Sunak – the die is truly cast – but it could for Luxon. New Zealand is still at least two years from another election and the economic vibe could be a lot better by then, especially if the Reserve Bank has seriously cut rates by then.

    So in the meantime we have to endure the diversions, dead cats, woke culture wars… whatever it takes to move the focus off the economy / cost-of-living, while doing the real damage in the background.

    • SPC 14.1

      They'll hope mortgage rates going down will make things better by 2026.

      But homeowners will still face rising rates (no government action on water infrastructure – the policy is to wait for the private sector to move in when profit is possible) and insurance (no plan to control this cost) will keep going up.

      Their alternatives to petrol tax do not reduce cost, just transition the tax take as petrol is used less.

      For those facing rising rents, the minimal MW increases (and no Fair Pay Agreements) and decline in wage increases with rising unemployment mean most will be worse off in 2026.

    • newsense 14.2

      Lol. More right wing counting. Talking about a government that should be in a honeymoon period as if they’re at the end of 3 terms. Typical Cooke. Avoid the real issues. It’s all the petrol price and nothing to do with the incompetency, how obviously they’re working for big tobacco and the landlords, and just their general unlikeability across the board. Chris Bishop is their idea of good cop.

      They’ve been the worst government for at least 40 years. I think worse than Douglas and Richardson because there’s no significant justification for the cut and burn approach to the state, but a lot we need to do. Particularly with infrastructure in water and transport. Media was clearly in crisis before the change of government. They’ve thrown out of a lot of work, but replaced it with nothing, but slogans and unnecessary cuts.

      Meaningful tax cuts will stoke more inflation, even threaten stagflation. And all kinds of responsible right wingers like Sir John are saying maybe no tax cuts this time round? Which means a bunch of cuts to funnel money to landlords, and that should be even more unpopular.

      The celebrations from Seymour only underline the lack of class and dare one say humanity in reaction to a human situation- people losing their jobs. It shows how some of these teleological bunch believe that all the journalists are against them and are somehow part of a vast conspiracy. If you have that world view it’s hard to react in a responsible and human way.

      If you’re clinging onto incumbency to blame for a lack popularity this early…

  15. pohutukawakid 15

    If one of Luxons KPI'S was to get a post election honeymoon it looks lie he has had an _____ disfunction.

    • bwaghorn 15.1

      He said many times pre election that people just needed to get to know him, well they do now and it ain't working for him.

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