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Treasury: peering into the dark with a broken torch

Written By: - Date published: 12:09 am, November 2nd, 2010 - 54 comments
Categories: Economy, Keynes - Tags: , ,

I saw Labour’s press release yesterday about the latest Treasury monthly statements. Basically, Treasury says ‘the economy’s a whole lot worse than we expected but we stand by our growth forecasts in the Budget’. Odd, because the Budget forecast 1.6% growth so far this year and it has actually been 0.7%. How good is Treasury at forecasting?

They release updated economic forecasts twice a year – in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) and the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) (or Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) in election year).

When the BEFU is published, it’s half-way through May but the latest official GDP numbers are for the previously December (it takes about four months after a quarter ends for the GDP numbers to come out). Similarly, the HEFU is out later this month but will be forecasting from the September quarter onwards, despite the September quarter being over and the December quarter being half-done.

So, the first growth ‘forecasts’ Treasury has to make are for 2 quarters that are virtually finished already. Not surprisingly, it does reasonably well at that task. Over the past five years, Treasury’s ‘forecasts’ for these first two quarters have shown a strong 0.75 correlation to the real numbers.

But they’re often a long way out: the average growth rate per quarter in the past five years was 0.2%, while actual growth rate in each quarter was an average of 0.4% different from what Treasury forecast. So, Treasury was wrong by an average of twice the average growth rate.

So, Treasury’s record at predicting the present isn’t that great – they can see the trends but they’re not so good at pinpointing the actual numbers. So, how about predicting the actual future?

How does Treasury do at predicting the two quarters that begin after their forecast is published – eg. forecasting the growth in the September and December quarters of 2009 in Budget 2009 that was published in May?

Turns out they are really, really bad. Actually, they’re slightly worse than you would expect if you selected the numbers at random. These forecast figures show a -.01 correlation with the actual numbers – statistically, Treasury’s predictions bear no relationship to what actually happens six months after they’re made. As for the average gap between the latest prediction for a quarter and the actual growth rate, it’s a whopping 0.6%

The correlations improve when they predict further out but the gap between the growth rate they predict and reality doesn’t.

In Budget 2008, Treasury didn’t forecast the recession even though we were already four months into it. In Budget 2009, it forecast the recession would end in the coming September quarter when it had already ended in the March quarter.

In June of this year, the economy was 0.9% smaller than predicted this May, 1.8% bigger than predicted the previous Budget, and an enormous 10.6% smaller than forecast in Budget 2006.

That kind of error has very serious implications. Tax cuts that look ‘affordable’ suddenly become huge debt burdens – like the $1.5 billion we’ve borrowed so far for the April 1 2008 cut. Benefit spending and tax revenue turn out to be wildly out of whack from what was planned for.

Sure, there’s a major economic crisis going on and that makes things hard to predict. But Treasury’s inability to foretell the recession even once it had started, or to accurately estimate its depth and end point, or to get right the weakness of the ‘recovery’ that has followed so something fundamental is wrong. Treasury’s orthodox neoclassical economics simply can’t cope with bubbles, busts, and resource constraints. As Peter Lyons writing in the Herald last week noted:

“[according to the neoclassicists] crowd manias that lead to share market and housing bubbles simply do not happen. Markets are always efficient. The credit crunch and near-collapse of the world financial markets simply could not happen.”

John Maynard Keynes’ famous rebuke of the neoclassical equilibrium model has been proven true by Treasury’s failure to get its head around what is happening to the economy:

“Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again”

It is time that Treasury rid itself of the failed ideology of neoliberalism and the failed theoretical framework of neoclassicism and embraced resource and behavioral economics. Because, right now, it’s all but useless at telling us where the economy is heading.

54 comments on “Treasury: peering into the dark with a broken torch”

  1. Colonial Viper 1

    Basically out of roughly 1,000,000 trained professional financial economists (including those working in universities, think tanks, Government agencies, sovereign reserve banks/treasuries, economics firms etc) perhaps 5 or 6 of them picked the Global Financial Crisis ahead of time.

    In the last 3 years the financial firms and banks led by these people have destroyed approximately 4 trillion USD worth of global wealth. That is more money than banks have ever made in their entire history.

    Therefore, financial economics is a totally failed discipline. Within this failed discipline, financial forecasting is a particular lead weight.

    The fact of the matter is that this entire discipline should be binned and started from scratch again.

    Financial economists, associated risk analysts and financial forecasters should be retrained and put to work in other fields. Perhaps in rice and maize fields.

    And any university which teaches financial economics should immediately suspend their courses. They are teaching witchcraft and charlatanism.

    Great post Marty.

    • M 1.1

      Couldn’t agree more CV.

      Economics is a totally useless, soft subject that is no more accurate than Romans inspecting chicken entrails or astrology for that matter. In time it will hopefully sink without trace like public relations and political science.

      I have done some study of economics (zzzzzzz) and it has always seemed to me that the economic theories put forward could never ever possibly be wrong which is complete rubbish. Forecasting is a laugh, they can really only guess at trends and most people can see trends very plainly and a lot more quickly.

      Under economics people are reduced merely to monetary items and often regarded as inconvenient or expendable if the predictions don’t stack up. When people are laid off economists often say that such people will move on to more “productive” parts of the economy or job market – what if there isn’t a more productive part of the economy or jobs?

      In 1991 I had to watch clever and hardworking friends fall into despair after being made redundant because of the “re-organising” of the economy where getting a job in fast food would have been a dream come true. One was so desperate she went escorting – guess the eCONomists thought she had moved on to more productive things. At least if she had contracted HIV such a condition would have provided a opportunity for other workers in the community to be productive like doctors, nurses, pharmacists and grave diggers.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.2

      Actually, it was 11 economists that managed to publish a credible prediction of it.

      In the last 3 years the financial firms and banks led by these people have destroyed approximately 4 trillion USD worth of global wealth.

      No they haven’t. They’ve removed $4t worth of money from the system but the economy is still worth what it was before hand. The reason why we went into recession is because the people with all the money, capitalists, banksters etc, panicked and stopped loaning it out once they realised that there was far more money in the system than the economy was actually worth. The accumulation of money in the hands of the few will always cause a recession and/or a depression.

      Therefore, financial economics is a totally failed discipline.

      Most economists don’t know how the economy works. They know how money works (neo-liberalism and even classical economics is a theory of money) and they’re not too good on that score either.

      And any university which teaches financial economics should immediately suspend their courses. They are teaching witchcraft and charlatanism.

      Agreed.

  2. Jeremy Harris 2

    I remember the episode of the West Wing where the Treasury economists say to the President,
    “We want you to look at the GDP forecasts for 10 years time”,
    and President Bartlett says,
    “Have they ever been accurate to within say $200,000,000,000..?”,
    the Treasury officials say,
    “No”,
    President Bartlett,
    “Why would I want to look at them then”,
    economists,
    “We want you to look at them anyway”…

  3. It’d be interesting to compare the accuracy of New Zealand’s Treasury with that of Australia, which sounds like it’s a functioning government department as opposed to a bizarre and demented cult.

  4. Colonial Viper
    And least we forget – one of the million failures is our prim minister
    Easter Island and statues come to mind.

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      Financiers, although they have some economic training (which means training in neo-liberalism these days), are not economists. The discipline, interestingly enough, is actually different.

    • KJT 4.2

      Actually he was very effective at gambling with our currency in New York.

  5. IrishBill 5

    As has been noted both here and at the dimpost one of the problems with treasury is it has a monopoly on economic advice. Clearly it needs to be opened to competition if it is to function more sufficiently. Perhaps forecasting should be tendered on a quarterly basis to private firms, NGOs and university departments. I’m not saying treasury couldn’t compete too just that they would sink or swim based on their ability to meet the accuracy and price the market required. I’d be interested to see what advice treasury would give on such a proposal.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      Clearly it needs to be opened to competition if it is to function more sufficiently.

      IB don’t know whether to laugh or to cry with your response.

      See my original post above? Which of the million wrong professional qualified financial economists did you want to hire to create this ‘efficiency’?

      In Jun 2008 the NZ Reserve Bank was still talking about increasing interest rates in order to dampen expectations of too high economic growth/inflation. In Sept 2008 the full force of the GFC and recession hit the country.

      These people are worse than useless. Fire them all and give their salaries to our teachers, nurses and doctors. Not joking here.

      I believe that putting more bets on the wrong race is not going to give you any winners. You may get an ‘accurate’ result completely by chance. But I could do so for you more cheaply and you will never know until it happens.

      Further its quite possible for someone to forecast a gradual incremental change from today’s status. But that is a ‘so what’ result which is almost completely unimportant and uninteresting. A cab driver could do the same. Its the ability to predict a severe and damaging step change in the economy a year ahead of time which is crucial to a nation. And because they are totally unable to do this – apart from at sheer random, which a cab driver can probably do better – , but can predict a near steady state year after year for years in a row, when the big change happens, they have set the country up for walking confidently straight into a hole.

      In this sense, financial economics is worse than useless and should be binned.

      Do you know Cullen’s brilliance? Cullen’s brilliance was not in predicting the GFC; he did not. It was in setting NZ up to be far more resilient to deal with the consequences and aftermath of such an event.

    • Greg 5.2

      While economic advice (at least to the government) is not tendered, treasury are still kept on their toes by the private (and state – universities) sector. Firms like infometrics, berl, nzier etc etc all do economic analysis on some of the same policy as treasury. They forecast too.

      While I like the idea of a free tender to the goverment it would create some serious issues for the independence part of the public service. It wouldn’t be good if the government of the day got to hand out the tenders – possibly could work with some sort of independant department set up to choose who got it.

  6. Carol 6

    I went to a talk by Marilyn Waring a couple of years ago. I don’t know a lot about economics, but she seemed to make making some similar points to Mary, CV & M. Waring talked about how economists are very selective in the data they count as relevant in estimating GDP etc. She gave examples from her work in (I think, the Solomons) showing how unpaid work contributes to the country’s economy, but is ignore by conventional economics. But, it looks to me like she maintains a believe in economics, but just wants a better version of it. And I don’t know how well her version holds up.

    However, her point about how unpaid work contributes to the economy seems to me to be an important one. NACT seems to want to cut back on the public sector and leave some of that work to voluntary unpaid work. This seems shocking to me, that they would set things up so activities necessary to the country’s economy, as well as to social well-being, are expected to be done for no pay. This is because they only seem to officially count “tradeable”/exportable goods and services as being of value.

    • lprent 6.1

      …NACT seems to want to cut back on the public sector and leave some of that work to voluntary unpaid work.

      They’re certainly cutting funds that go to the front line voluntary sector like the womans refuges, so I guess that unpaid is the key, Or perhaps they’re just simply shifting it to their mates rather than looking at needs both present and future – for instance private schools.

  7. ghostwhowalksnz 7

    Havent they had a big jump in resources given them?. While others like early childhood education have had cutbacks.

    Could that be the reason , they were never given the money to do a proper job? Sounds familiar!
    Bill English , being ‘one of their own ‘ has fixed that. But he still makes his decisions based on shoddy advice , since he likes the sound of it. A bit like a judge on Americas got Talent

    • Carol 7.1

      I heard somewhere (on one of the weekend polictical TV shows on One or 3) say that the only areas of parliamentary/ government public services that have increased staff has been in the department of finance, and Public Relations staff. So they can produce more figures with more people to spin the relevance and “reliability” of them – yes, much like America’s got talent.

      • M 7.1.1

        Carol, wonder if staff at WINZ have increased markedly?

        • Vicky32 7.1.1.1

          I am not Carol, but from what I have heard, no! I was summonsed to a compulsory “job seminar” in August, so we stupids could be told how to apply for jobs. Duh. But the woman leading it spent the afternoon whining about how she knew that she was on thin ice (as was everyone doing her job) – she wanted us to feel sorry for her? Young, well-dressed and with contacts..
          Deb

        • KJT 7.1.1.2

          No. They have reverted to type since National got back in.
          I have supported a few teenagers through WINZ etc lately.
          These are not deadbeats. They are kids who would leap at almost any job offered.
          Yesterday after waiting in the queue for 20 minutes one was told. “You are 1 minute late for your appointment. Come back next week”.
          Staff are now exceptionally mean and contemptuous. This has now happened twice.

  8. Sounds good Bill
    But don’t forget all the other economists/forecasters come from the same religious sect, they have all been taught from the same books.
    People from all walks of life are incapable of understanding limits to growth and resource depletion, most are to lazy and apathetic to open their eyes, it is clear the king has no clothes, and he can not stop the tide form coming or going, yet millions of fools do not want the truth, as witnessed on election day … time and time again ‘we’ fall for their bullshit.
    Before you have an economy you need energy, that energy has to be cheaper than the energy it takes to get it, for example you can’t ‘make a profit’ having slaves growing food if that food goes to feeding the slaves.
    1900 ish 1 barrel of oil invested would give you 100 in return, now it is something like one in for three returned, ignoring cleaning up the mess (air, water, land).
    We are over 23 years PASSED the per-capita peak in global energy,
    War is good for GDP, so I guess we have a rosy future.
    Some reading for the non-apathetic
    http://oilcrash.com/articles/arnett05.htm

  9. If you read this latest report from the govt http://oilcrash.com/articles/wake_up2.htm and are more capable than treasury of putting the numbers together, then I am sure you will agree with these figures.

    > An annual depletion rate of 2% allows roughly 50 years for all of a resource to deplete, (and for one to get one’s mind around the concept of the import of that event.) An annual depletion rate of 3% gives one 33 years.

    4% gives one 25 years.

    5% gives one 20 years.

    6% gives one 16 years.

    7% gives one 14 years.

    8% gives one 12 years.

    9% gives one 11 years.

    10 % gives one 10 years.

    11% gives one 9 years.

    12% gives one 8 years.

    13% gives one 7.6 years.

    14% gives one 7 years; and,

    An annual resource depletion rate of 15% gives one just ~6.6 years until the energy resource is, for all practical purposes, GONE! We must remember that we are talking here about the continuance or the cessation of this fossil-fueled Industrial Civilization — NOT patching joints on sailing boats on the shores of the Black Sea.

    We should also remember, that as more liquid fossil fuels are depleted, the depletion rate per annum will continue to INCREASE to 50% and higher in the final years, until the resource is ultimately (for all practical considerations) 100% depleted, thus ANY time period one chooses will be drastically shortened as it approaches its own end. <
    http://oilcrash.com/articles/arnett05.htm

    38* months ago the IEA said 'we' had 3-5 years before 'we' faced an about 9% decline in oil supply …. at best this system will be over by 2023…. according to the International Energy Agency, whom the govt use to quote whenever the suggestion that peak happened/was going to happen – in 2005, Malard, Brownlee, Hodgson, Hughes, Dynhoven have all said don't worry your silly little head Robert, peak oil WILL NOT happen until 2035 – 37

    I/we told them so

    * Listener article September 8 -14 2007 "The global oil crisis will hit home in just five years. How will New Zealand cope? "

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      Oil is going to be around for a long time yet. This talk of “100% depletion” doesn’t really mesh with reality. It also doesn’t really matter, just 20% reduced from current production will drastically change the world, and 40% will probably send it to disasterville.

      • KJT 9.1.1

        No shortage of oil. Just of cheap oil.

        Trying to compete with emerging economies like China for oil will mean that we will not be able to afford it.

        • Lanthanide 9.1.1.1

          I agree that it is possible for cheap oil to deplete entirely, but it is not clear from Robert’s post that he is only talking about cheap oil:
          “An annual depletion rate of 2% allows roughly 50 years for all of a resource to deplete”

          Also, if you consider anything below $150 a barrel ‘cheap’, then as soon as the price goes over $150/barrel then there is effectively no ‘cheap oil’ left at all because all barrels on the open market will cost at least $150 each. So really saying “cheap oil is going to deplete” doesn’t tell us anything that isn’t already obvious.

          • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1.1

            Let’s not redefine what ‘cheap’ is here. Doing so would be to fall into a typical perceptual fallacy of us making ourselves believe that we have a grip on what is going on.

            $25-30-35/barrel oil is cheap. Its been that cheap for long periods of time in the last decade. $80-90/barrel of oil is already frakin expensive. In 2002, just 8 years ago it would have been considered in conceivable.

            Also realise that $120-140/barrel oil in early 2008 tipped the economic game into an oil shock which then precipitated the start of the subprime mortgage collapse. Which lead to the GFC.

            Yes there are over 200 billion barrels worth of tar sands in the americas (Canada and Venezuela) but as people have already pointed out we won’t be able to afford any of it. Or to put it more correctly, we won’t be able to afford the quantity and type of logistics/transport that we use now to sustain a globalised economy.

            So really saying “cheap oil is going to deplete” doesn’t tell us anything that isn’t already obvious.

            Correct. But the implications of no more cheap oil is slightly less than obvious.

            For instance. No more economic growth in the western world is a likely outcome of no more cheap oil. And what is that going to lead to? No one knows yet.

            Very interesting.

            • Lanthanide 9.1.1.1.1.1

              Germany has grown for the last 10 years despite having flat oil usage. Of course they are in the middle of europe surrounded by countries that were increasing the oil usage, but it doesn’t mean that growth is impossible in an oil constrained world.

              Also IMO anything below $250/barrel is cheap (based on all of the amazing things oil can do for us, compared to gold which does nothing), I was just using the $150 figure there to prove the point that it’s meaningless to say “cheap oil is going to reach 100% depletion” because it logically does that as soon as all barrels are sold for more than the ‘cheap’ price, despite there still being an abundant supply of oil available.

              • Colonial Viper

                Flat oil usage with cheap oil is not the same scenario at all to flat oil usage with much more expensive oil.

                Your opinion of anything under $250/barrel as being cheap is fine – as long as you realise that our modern growing economy of the last 100 years would never have happened at that price, and globalisation would also have never happened.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  Actually, we had quite a significant amount of globalisation 100 years ago, arguably more than we do today. It all went away with WW1.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Sailing ships full of tea travelling from India to England was indeed a mark of ‘globalisation’.

                    But that is still not quite the same as the free and instantaneous flows of capital, labour, technology and jobs which has occurred in the last three decades.

      • Bored 9.1.2

        Lan, that comment seems to me a bit of both blind faith and wishful thinking. How long before its gone is not the real issue, its the response that is important. More importantly you are not alone in that outlook, there are a whole pil of alternative energy techno junkies out there who go further and even deny the issue.

        The danger with the approach of “hell we have both time and technology” is that even if it were true we would likely carry on doing what we currently do until we hit the wall…which incidently is probably what will happen. If by contrast we were to take the approach of “we have energy today, lets use it to do the things we need to do to transition to low energy” we might all be better off.

        • KJT 9.1.2.1

          We do not have time. NZ is due for a huge fall unless we develop alternatives to fossil fuels NOW.
          7 Billion a year in fossil fuels at the moment. Imagine the effect if the price doubles.

          There are compelling economic as well as environmental reasons to lower our fossil fuel use.

          • Bored 9.1.2.1.1

            You are completely correct. Fortunately for us, and unlike the majority of the world we can keep the majority of our electricity supply, something most of the rest of the world need oil and coal to achieve. We also have abundant wind power.

            My prediction for the future is that we will need to develop what I would describe as “short haul fuel” for local purposes. For example, dairy farms might use methane from cow dung to power their output, we would domestically use a lot of small scale wind and water power to do minor work such as domestic refrigeration and lighting.

            What is certain is that our transport network will change dramatically back to train and boats and shanks pony. And we will manufacture the infrastructure we need to keep things running, something we have not done for the last 30 years. Back to the future.

            All up, if you had to be somewhere at the “end of the oil age” NZ is probably a good place to be.

            • Robert Atack 9.1.2.1.1.1

              The New Zealand grid is as dependent on coal as much as any other system, our grid is dependent on factories overseas for all the ‘wing dings’ that keep the system going ie computers for a start, New Zealand is dependent on trucks and mining machinery getting diesel so they can get the copper and other minerals we import to maintain our grid, and don’t forget the tons of rare earths that go into wind turbines … all turbines/motors for that matter (magnets?)
              Iron ore for power pylons – needs coal to make steel. And the oil and gas dependent food supply that all the workers are dependent on?
              Our grid is also dependent on plastic … how are we going to replace even a damaged power socket, let alone a fridge, washing machine, or computer?.
              Then there is the question – what do we need electricity for? I mean nearly all of our appliances are imported (more oil), and 99% of our food is delivered on trucks (oil), a lot of our water and waste water is dependent on diesel driven pumps.
              Take plastic out of the hospitals and they will not be able to pull an ingrown toenail without a whole lot of pain, I would guess that every machine in hospital would not function without oil/natural gas dependent plastic.
              There is no ‘life boat NZ’ we are all in the same amount of trouble, that is what our collective apathy has bought us.
              But at least we have a thinking government, who have all our futures at heart, what with all the new roads on the books and Kiwi Saver we can’t lose.
              I feel like a beer

              • Draco T Bastard

                how are we going to replace even a damaged power socket,

                Ceramics.

                The trick isn’t to look at how we can’t do it but to look for new (or, in the case of light/power sockets, the old fashioned way) ways to do it.

                Then there is the question – what do we need electricity for? I mean nearly all of our appliances are imported (more oil),

                But they don’t have to be and we really do have the resources here to make them. Magnets don’t need rare earths in them, they’re better if they do but simple carbon steel works fine. We would need electricity to power our industrial base.

                Take plastic out of the hospitals and they will not be able to pull an ingrown toenail without a whole lot of pain,

                And why would that be? It is, after all, possible to make syringes out of glass.

                and 99% of our food is delivered on trucks (oil)

                Which would mean a switch to electric trains and trucks.

                Our future in NZ may not be as prolific as what we have now but it doesn’t have to be a massive drop in living standards either.

                • Colonial Viper

                  As you have pointed out DTB, there are many uses of oil for which alternatives are currently available.

                  The one which we are really screwed over on is oil as a transport fuel. There is no replacement source of energy able to replace oil as a transport fuel in either our national or our global economy.

                  Which would mean a switch to electric trains and trucks.

                  Our future in NZ may not be as prolific as what we have now but it doesn’t have to be a massive drop in living standards either.

                  I have my doubts as to whether or not our current electricity infrastructure is going to be sufficient to plug in and supply dozens of electric locomotives, tens of thousands of electric trucks and hundreds of thousands of electric cars.

                  Wouldn’t be surprised if we need to bring online an additional 10 GW of electrical generation to supply that demand.

                  No living standards would not need to drop hugely – I agree with you. But there will be massive change. Suddenly, half the things you eat in a day may need to come from within 200km of where you live.

                  Unless you live around Wellington no more Whittakers chocalate for you; unless you live around AKL, no more Tip Top icecream for you. Well, maybe for special occasions like a 21st, or a 60th or some such :P

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    Suddenly, half the things you eat in a day may need to come from within 200km of where you live.

                    Oh, I can definitely see the end of long range food. It just won’t be possible to ship it fast enough (relative to productivity) without spoiling. This will force our production of food down. I see this as a Good Thing as it will allow us to shut down a hell of a lot of farms allowing nature to regenerate.

                    Ice cream can be made locally and will be as transport limitations force decentralisation. So can computers but we won’t be looking primarily at exporting them. They’ll be made for the local economy so it’ll be a repair and replacement economy rather than a major push for the latest innovation and toys. It won’t be that progress will stop but that what you have now and is working won’t be replaced until it’s truly and fully dead.

                    We’ll need more electricity than we have now but probably not too much more as we’ll find life slowing down to match the available resources rather than trying to keep it going flat out through the capitalist/consumerist delusion of infinite growth.

                    • Lanthanide

                      Actually don’t be so sure that shipping food will vanish.

                      One of the rebuttals to the ‘food miles’ concept found that something like 95% of the oil used in transporting food was from the supermarket to the consumers home, and the other 5% was from the farm, to the distribution centre, to the supermarket. Simply because of the volume of goods shipped in the backend supply, the per-unit oil cost of shipping food was minuscule… until someone buys it off the shelf and takes it home in a car that is mostly empty and has poor efficiency.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Lan, I’m sure your figures are somewhere close to being right. BUT corporate buyers looking to take cost out of *their* logistics networks (they do not care about what the consumer pays to take groceries home, after all its not their problem) are going to start looking at buying a little more local, not a little more global, as transport prices creep up. Hence, regional producers are start going to gain in competitiveness vs centralised corporate food processors.

                • KJT

                  Lacking imports I am sure all sorts of no 8 wire entrepreneurs will spring up with replacements. Some of which may be in demand overseas so we can pay for things we really cannot make here.

                • Bastard

                  Reluctantly I am replying to your anonymous post
                  Listen to this

                  KATHY MCMAHON ON ECO-SHOCK RADIO: PEAK OIL VS. PATHOLOGICAL OPTIMISM

                  http://www.energybulletin.net/media/2010-11-01/peak-oil-vs-pathological-optimism

                  How are you going to make glass post crash?
                  96% of drugs are dependent on oil/NG, what are you going to use in your syringe?

                  [lprent: This is a forum that is not anonymous - it is pseudonymous. This allows opinions to be expressed freely within what the moderators allow. The moderators keep track of behavior - not you. As far as I'm concerned everyone including you is using a pseudonym - we only keep track of identity theft issues. Attacking someone on the basis that they're using a pseudonym or that they are 'anonymous' is both incorrect (they aren't to me if I choose to look) and irrelevant. It is also not allowed here on the basis that it inevitably leads to flamewars and bullying (the latter is a right reserved for moderators not you).

                  This is the second time I've had to point this out to you. The next time I'll ban you for a period to see if it will drive the point home. Read the about and the policy, and confine yourself to our rough site rules - they aren't onerous. ]

                  • Colonial Viper

                    natural gas is a fine feedstock to replace oil with in most chemical synthesis operations.

                    Humans have been making glass since at least the Rennaisance and before the commercial discovery of oil, right?

              • prism

                R.A. I feel like I’ve had a dose of Castor oil.

              • KJT

                RA. Mostly I agree with you, but instead of lying down and letting the whole thing roll us over we should be taking steps now to come out the other side with an intact society that can live within its means.

                Oil is produced in NZ as are iron ores.
                It would be better used for production such as plastics. Although Waikato Uni are researching resins and reinforcements from renewable s right now.

                Some oil would be required for heavy machinery and shipping, but I suspect those grades will still be relatively cheap.

  10. Adrian 10

    In Sept 2008 I asked a very senior IMF ( top half dozen, a relative) what was going to happen after those first tremors we had and the reply was that the IMF didn’t think there was anything in it, it certianly wouldn’t affect the middle classes and a few poor over committed homeowners in the US would lose their house. These are supposedly the “smartest guys in the room”, where have we heard that expression before! If I want to know how we are doing I call a mate who has bin business ( a very efficient one, he sorts all the rubbish coming in and dumps it or recycles it and only takes about 20% to the landfill) in Auckland and every Friday afternoon when he does his volumes for the preceeding week he can tell exactly how well the NZ economy is doing. BTW, if you want to know, we’re dead flat.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      Adrian.

      Any chance of a monthly skip bin-based economic forecast?

      I am betting that you will be able to give us a superior view of the state of the nation’s economy than Treasury/Reserve Bank.

  11. How about this for a scenario?

    The Treasury department economists are told what kind of prediction to make because the reality would cause civil unrest.

    Why? Because if people knew how badly America was really collapsing and how that will drag China and India with it to start with there is just nobody who can afford to import dairy products, meat and wood from halfway across the world you’d have a massive panic on your hands.

    Added to that the resource and currency wars the US and China are currently engaged in will drive up the price of oil and other resources to the point of making it unaffordable to the general population in the years to come. I’m being careful here and giving us sometime to adapt but the truth is that the NZ dollar is going up against the US dollar, not because we have such a hot currency but because helicopter Ben Bernanke is printing toilet paper dollars faster then we can shit on them leading the way to hyper inflation and we all know how that looks. If you don’t, think Mugabe and his marry banksters printing money like there is no tomorrow.

    Or what will happen if like it is in the books the US Federal reserve devalues the US dollar causing mayhem in the treasuries of China and other assorted countries with heaps of US treasury bonds in their vaults.

    I can tell you what’s in store in the foreseeable future. based on what you won’t find in the newspapers but is predicted by very smart and educated people and if you read it will make your hair stand on end. Such as there could be more than 11 million houses foreclosed on in the next few months alone, 50 million people are using food stamps on a regular base and according to a former Wall street editor and assistant treasury secretary because all those jobs moved to China and India and Mexico there are no jobs to be found in the foreseeable future. In the US you only get welfare support for 99 weeks and after that you’re on your own.

    According to another respected trends forecaster we will see tax revolts and blood in the street and at least one state is taking that serious and started placing armed guards in their unemployment offices.

  12. Lanthanide 12

    Marty, does the treasury prediction include details on US/NZ currency predictions, or interest rate predictions?

    If it does, digging in further and seeing if their predictions on those fronts met reality or not might help to show where a lot of their error is coming from. Eg they predict NZ$ to be 60 cents and interest rates to be 3.5%, but in reality they end up being 75 cents and 3%, could go a long way to explaining why the rest of the prediction is off.

    • Bored 12.1

      Interesting question Lan, I think the real issue with economists here is that they do not reside in the real world, and as a result reality eludes them. because they think in theories based upon abstracts as opposed to real people and events they are always going to be wrong.

      A better guide might be (as we just had demonstrated in the Hobbit fiasco) to “follow the money”. Exchange rates questions might be better posed by asking “in whose interest and how much clout do they have”? The exchange rate has bugger all to do with theories or realities, its all attached to a exchange market in which emotion and rumour runs rampant, and in which traders can short an economy for their own interest.

    • Colonial Viper 12.2

      where a lot of their error is coming from.

      I’d argue that you are looking at this from a fundamentally mistaken perspective.

      Financial economist predictions may meet reality when reality is moving at a +/-100 basis points per month rate, but that’s not what we need accurate forecasts for. What we need accurate forecasts for are the huge and now very frequent financial implosions which are occurring in our toxically over leveraged world.

      In other words, the ability of a forecaster to predict smooth sailing when the weather is fine is useless to us as a country. It gives no insight whatsoever into whether or not they can predict ‘black swan’ events which cannot be inferred by normally tracked observables.

  13. Adrian 13

    Cheap/dear oil is a bit of a misnomer. The oil that powers ships is very cheap, because its so thick you can damn near shovel it, while other oils are already 180-200 a barrel and dearer because they come out of the ground a bit special. West Texas Crude and Brent oil are the quoted prices and they are almost non-existant, which is more evidence that oil pricing is all smoke and mirrors. Apparently most of the Middle East crude costs only about 12USD because it is on long term contracts and only the royalties have to be paid by the companies as the infrastructure has been there so long it costs them bugger all to get it out and the royalties are only a small portion of the quoted price.. We’re being ripped off of course.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      Good point. China for instance has forward contracts with fixed prices and preferential supply for oil and gas with many countries which extend way into the future.

      They’ve already figured out the game coming up within the next 10 years.

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    Labour | 23-08
  • Labour irons out low income tax issue
    The increasing casualisation of work has led to many New Zealand families being disadvantaged through the tax they pay, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. "Many low paid workers are having to work two or three jobs to make ends meet...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Cornered Government comes out swinging
    The National Government is so desperate to keep its dead-in-the-water expert teachers policy alive, it has refused to rule out forcing schools to participate through legislation, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “John Key today attacked the Educational Institute for...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Pacific people continue to go backwards under National
    A report from Victoria University highlights the fact that Pacific people are continuing to go backwards under a National Government, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The report shows the largest inequality increases were in smoking, obesity, tertiary...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Wellington transport plan needs to keep moving
    The failure of the Transport Agency to properly look at alternatives to the Basin Reserve flyover is not a good reason for further delays to improving transport in Wellington, Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Annette King say. “The Board of...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Labour’s focus on inequality, kids and better job prospects
    Tackling child poverty and removing barriers to people working part time to enhance their prospects of moving into a fulltime job are highlights of Labour’s Social Development policy. Releasing the policy today, spokesperson Sue Moroney said while part-time work was...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Political staff should give answers under oath
    The Inspector General of Security and Intelligence should use her full statutory powers to question witnesses under oath about the leak of SIS information, says Labour MP Phil Goff. “Leakage of confidential information from the SIS for political purposes is...
    Labour | 21-08
  • High dollar, hands-off Govt sends workers to dole queue
    The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale community, Labour’s Employment, Skills and Training spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The company’s inability to compete in international markets...
    Labour | 21-08
  • National’s flagship education policy dead in the water
    National’s plan to create executive principals and expert teachers is effectively dead in the water with news that 93 percent of primary teachers have no confidence in the scheme, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The fact that teachers are...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Dunedin will be a knowledge and innovation centre under Labour
    Dunedin will become a knowledge and innovation centre under a Labour Government that will back local businesses, support technology initiatives and fund dynamic regional projects, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Nowhere has the National Government’s short-sightedness been more apparently than...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Inquiry into SIS disclosures the right decision
    Labour MP Phil Goff says the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has done the right thing by launching an inquiry into the disclosure of SIS documents about a meeting between himself and the agency’s former director-general. “This inquiry is necessary...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Labour – supporting and valuing carers and the cared for
    Placing real value on our elderly and the people who care for them will be a priority for a Labour Government, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. Releasing Labour’s Senior Citizens policy today David Cunliffe promised that a Labour Government would...
    Labour | 20-08
  • By Hoki! It’s Labour’s fisheries policy
    A Labour Government will protect the iconic Kiwi tradition of fishing by improving access to the coast, protecting the rights of recreational fishers and reviewing snapper restrictions, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Catching a fish from the rocks, beach...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Mighty River – Mighty Profits – Mighty hard to swallow
    Mighty River Power’s profit increase of 84 per cent is simply outrageous, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “Demand for electricity is flat or declining yet the company has made enormous profits. It is the latest power company to celebrate...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Collins’ actions were wrong, not unwise
    John Key’s moral compass remains off-kilter as he cannot bring himself to declare Judith Collins’ actions outright wrong, not simply ‘unwise’, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “Under pressure John Key is finally shifting his stance but his failure to condemn...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Voting starts tomorrow!
    On the telly, in the papers, on the Net, billboards on almost every street corner – it’s hard to miss the fact that there’s an election coming up. Everyone’s trying to win your vote on Election Day, September 20, (this...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Collins inquiry a whitewash before it has even started
    The farce whitewash that Key is trying to push through here for the inquiry into Judith Collins role in a hit on the SFO should enrage any NZer, regardless of how they vote. Whaleoil won’t be forced to appear, it’s...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Press Leaders Debate – Round 2 – 7pm tonight
    This debate is live in a Town Hall, Key has done well at these in the past, but since the hate politics exposed in Dirty Politics, expect real fury directed at Key. My guess is that Key will attempt to use whatever he...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • MANA hit speed wobbles – why Annette Sykes will win Waiariki
    MANA are my favourites. But of late, their transition from crawling to sprinting has hit some speed wobbles. Hone’s and Pam’s aggressive attitude towards the media recently is very understandable in light of how connected many of the media were to...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Soz Cam – PaknSave boycott of whaleoil continues – time to start a boyc...
    Cam is so carcinogenic now, not even his mates in the Tobacco Industry are talking to him any longer. I suspect only the Israeli Defence Force propaganda department are paying for content on whaleoil now. Cam says that PaknSave have dropped their problems...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • The Rock Fuels NZ Roastbuster Rape Culture
    This is making me feel pretty uncomfortable. Here we have an instance of Jono and Ben posing like “exposed celebrities”. But do you know what I’m seeing? I’m seeing two dudes who basically “roasted” a woman online (exposed pictures of...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – Why beneficiaries need advocacy
    There are times when I am wrong. I was wrong recently when someone suggested to me that AAAP should be eligible for government funding to continues its advocacy work. That was before. Before dealing with advocacy on a weekly basis...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • TheDailyBlog September Political Poll Has Been Kicked Off
    The Daily Blog’s August poll has concluded and the September poll has been kicked off, asking readers: What party will you likely vote for at this year’s General Election? You will see this month’s poll in the right-hand sidebar of...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Jamie Whyte, leave that poor seal alone!
    Worse than showing mere lip service to Rainbow inclusion, ACT leader Jamie Whyte showed stunning arrogance when appeared at a candidates debate on rainbow issues hosted by the Auckland University Students’ Association last Thursday. The stunning hypocrisy was evident as...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Right wing can’t help but use scum
    Some people have been shocked that the traditional right wing party in New Zealand politics is so deeply embedded with scum like the blogger Whale Oil. We need not be so surprised. It takes a certain type to support the...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • EXCLUSIVE: National’s Ohariu candidate admits contact by Simon Lusk
    . . Wellington, NZ, 31  August – At a meet-the-candidates public meeting in the Rongotai Electorate, National’s Ohariu candidate, Brett Hudson, confirmed that he had been approached by “a mate”, who passed on a message from  National Party operative, Simon...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014
    Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Petition for Governor General of New Zealand to Investigate all the allegat...
      Now we see the inquiry will be a whitewash, that is secret, won’t be consulted with the Opposition, will have limited scope and will ignore Nicky Hager’s book, we must demand the Governor General step in and demand an...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Ashburton, 1 September 2014
    I NEVER WENT BACK to Aramoana after the killing. I had been a frequent visitor to the tiny seaside village back in the late 1970s and throughout the 80s. Its tall cliffs and broad beaches providing a colourful backdrop to...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Checkmate in 1 move – how could Slater have known what was in OIA request...
    And now we get down to the final few moves before checkmate. If the following investigation is right, how could Slater and Collins have known what was in the Secret Intelligence Service Official Information Act request that hadn’t been released...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • The Edge Posts Naked Photos Of Jennifer Lawrence Without Consent
    Today the Edge website – owned by Media Works – published fully naked photographs of Jennifer Lawrence without her consent. It is not OK to publish naked media of any woman without her consent, full stop. It is absolutely disgusting...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Bomber, Laila and Maggie – a highlight from Auckland Broadcasting Debate ...
    Bomber, Laila and Maggie – a highlight from Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, how good was I i...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Maggie Barry slags Laila Harre & blogger, audience erupt
    The Coalition for Better Broadcasting held their public meeting in Auckland last night and it became a fiery shouting match when Maggie Barry decided to slag Laila Harre and me off. 250 people packed into the Pioneer Hall off High...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • It has to be a full independent public inquiry and Key MUST front
      You know things are bad when images like this start appearing in the media.  It isn’t a ‘left wing conspiracy’ to point out the over whelming evidence of what is clearly a right wing conspiracy! If it looks like a conspiracy, sounds like a conspiracy...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Political Party social media stats – National playing Dirty Politics on s...
    Interesting data from friend of the blog, Marty Stewart, on social media likes and it shows an interesting question that post Dirty Politics should probably get asked…   …it’s interesting that Key has so many personal followers.  One wonders if...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • The depth of the National rot and the compliance of our news media
    I’m so tired. Aren’t you? I don’t want to read the news anymore. It’s awful and I feel ashamed of it. We live in a country that people all over the world would give an arm, a leg; their life...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Conservative Party candidate links smacking ban with suicide, sexually tran...
    If Chemtrails, faked moon landings and climate change denial weren’t enough, welcome to your new Minister for Spanking,  Edward Saafi... The anti-smacking law is to blame for youth suicide, youth prostitution and even sexually-transmitted infections, a leading Conservative party candidate...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word on the canonisation of Matthew Hooton
    Before we all start the canonisation of Matthew Hooton, let’s consider some home truths here shall we? While the Wellington Ruminator Blog, the blog who was previously mates with Judith Collins, now seems to have a crush on Matthew Hooton… …I...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word on undercover cops in bars
    Dunedin police booze operation labelled ‘creepy’ Undercover police officers drank in Dunedin bars as part of an operation targeting liquor licensing offences. While police said the inaugural operation was a success — with most bars found compliant — the Hospitality...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Judith Collins press conference
    Judith Collins press conference...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Angry Lawyer – Collins, Odgers, Williams and legal ethics
    We deserve better lawyers than Judith Collins Three of the worst offenders exposed in Dirty Politics are lawyers: Judith Collins, Cathy Odgers, and Jordan Williams. What Nicky Hager exposed them doing would be out of line for anyone, but from...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Necessary Defence
    Increasingly climate change is becoming the main fracture line between political parties. Where political parties stand on climate change defines political parties and movements like no other issue. The Mana Movement like the Maori Party it sprang from, came out...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Why it is all over for John Key
    Image: Melanie D I’ve been confident that National will lose this election and that our focus should be on what a progressive Government needs to establish as its agenda in the first 100 days. Past that point, the establishment pushes back...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word to everyone who voted National in 2011
    I received this interesting email from a National Party supporter today… …let me say this to anyone who voted National last election – you should be ashamed by what has been revealed and what your vote ended up enabling but...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • EXCLUSIVE: Déjà Vu All Over Again: John Ansell confirms his participation...
      THE MAN BEHIND the Iwi-Kiwi billboards that very nearly won the 2005 election for Don Brash and the National Party has confirmed his involvement in businessman John Third’s and former Act MP Owen Jennings’ campaign to drive down the...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Public Broadcasting Auckland debate 6.30pm tonight now with Colin Craig &am...
    The Coalition for Better Broadcasting debate on public broadcasting happens tonight at 6.30pm in Auckland at the Pioneer Women’s Hall, High Street, Auckland City.  In the light of Dirty Politics and the manipulation of the media, public broadcasting is more important for...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Winners & Losers in Collins sacking plus what’s the latest on Slater...
      Make no mistake, there was no way this was a resignation, it’s a face saving way out for Collins, she was sacked.  My understanding is that National internal polls are haemorrhaging and that the powers that be within National...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Third party propaganda attacks incoming Labour-led government
    . . Further to a report by Daily Blogger, Chris Trotter, on receiving information regarding planned attack-billboards, the following billboard is highly visible to traffic on the southbound lane of the Wellington motorway, just prior to the Murphy St turn-off....
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Labour wins the Internet
    I’m sure I’m not the only one who tried to vote online for the leaders debate and couldn’t because the website was down. The next option was the txt vote, 75c a pop of course. So I’m not surprised that...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Rotherham and the need to challenge willful bl...
    I haven’t been following the events in Rotterham too closely.  I’ve read about the basic issues and the culture of silence that stopped action been taken even after complaints were made.  That culture of silence is incredibly familiar, and described...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Review: Hairspray
      Oh Hairspray! What fun! Somehow I managed to miss the movie when it came out, I had no idea really what it was about though I felt it had a vague relation to High School Musical. In retrospect, that...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Mounting global pressure against Timor-Leste’s ‘death sentence’ media...
    East Timor’s José Belo … courageous fight against ‘unconstitutional’ media law.Image: © Ted McDonnell 2014 CAFÉ PACIFIC and the Pacific Media Centre Online posted challenges to the controversial ‘press law’ nine months ago when it emerged how dangerous this draft...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Spies, Lies and When Campaigns Are Fried
    Like most of the rest of the nation’s political classes, I was eagerly affixed to TV One from 12:30 on Saturday afternoon to witness the downfall of Judith Collins.Whenever we witness the crumbling of a titan of the political landscape...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • BREAKING: Whaleoil crushes Crusher
    Judith ends up shooting herself A new email has been released suggesting that Collins was attempting to undermine the head of Serious Fraud Office with the help of far right hate speech merchant Cameron Slater. Unbelievable!   She has been forced...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • BREAKING: Rumours Judith Collins gone at lunchtime
    Brook Sabin first of the mark with rumours Judith Collins is about to resign – PM announcing a statement at 12.30pm… …Paddy follows… …Vance confirms..   …if Collins is gone by lunchtime, it will be because the PM understands the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • BREAKING: UPDATE on DIRT ALERT!
    Thanks to the information passed to Chris Trotter by “Idiot/Savant” from No Right Turn it is now possible to identify at least some of the persons involved in this latest example of attack politics. What follows is Chris’s response to Idiot/Savant’s timely assistance: Well done...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Comparing burning puppets, hip hop lyrics and drunk student chants to black...
    Watching the mainstream media try and obscure Cunliffe’s surprise win in the leaders debate  is a reminder the Press Gallery is in depressed shock. The current spin line from the Wellington bubble media in the wake of Dirty Politics is that...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Why has it all gone quiet on Charter Schools?
    They’re one of ACT’s flagship policies and the National Party have been gung ho in supporting them. So how come we’re not hearing Hekia Parata, Jamie Whyte, Catherine Isaac, et al singing from the rafters about what a resounding success charter...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Moment of Truth – September 15th – Auckland Town Hall
    Moment of Truth – September 15th – Auckland Town Hall...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • EXCLUSIVE: Dirt Alert! Are the Greens and Labour about to become the target...
    WE’VE SEEN IT ALL BEFORE. In 2005 pamphlets began appearing all over New Zealand attacking Labour and the Greens. For a couple of days both the parties targeted and the news media were flummoxed. Who was behind such an obviously...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • The Donghua Liu Affair: the Press Council’s decision
    . . 1. Prologue . The Donghua Liu Affair hit  the headlines on 18 June, with allegations that David Cunliffe wrote a letter in 2003,  on  behalf of  business migrant, Donghua Liu. Four days later, on Sunday 22 June, the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • The difference between Cunliffe & Key in the debate
    It was with much interest that I watched the leaders debate on Thursday night.  I watched with an open mind, always happy to have my opinion changed.  Maybe John Key is all the wonderful things that many say about him,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Denis Tegg – When Did We Agree To Our Data Being Shared with ...
    New shocking evidence has emerged from Edward Snowden’s trove of documents about a program called ICREACH under which data collected by the GCSB is shared with 23 US spy agencies. Under new sharing agreements which appear to have commenced immediately after...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Why Internet MANA are the best political friends the Greens could ever get
    Metiria at last nights #GreenRoomNZ: standing on the shoulders and camera cases of giants  NZers, regardless of political spectrum or apathy level, have a wonderful beach cricket egalitarianism about us. If we can objectively conclude a winner, then that person...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Independent Epsom Candidates ‘One Strike’ Crime Policy
    Best wishes to all of those who live in Epsom, Mount Eden, New Market, Remuera and of course the rest of New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer Labour deal
    67% of those who voted for New Zealand First at the 2011 general election would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after September 20’s general election....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Jointly owned urban development agency for Christchurch
    “Given the strategic importance of the Canterbury rebuild, it is logical that the transition from emergency governance arrangements is overseen by the Prime Minister’s office, but to maintain momentum in the city centre an expert development agency...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Collins inquiry at best a Band-Aid, a permanent fix needed
    Collins inquiry at best a Band-Aid, a permanent fix is needed The Public Service Association (PSA) says the inquiry into Judith Collins’ behaviour must be accompanied by a process to restore the lost trust between Ministers and public servants if...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Association welcomes new Chief Executive
    “The New Zealand Police Association is pleased to announce the appointment of Heather Verry to Chief Executive. Heather picks up the mantle from Chris Pentecost, who recently retired from this position,” Police Association President Greg O’Connor said...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Young Voters Want Politicians to Grow Up
    Young voters want answers to the questions that directly affect them – but it seems as much as anything, they want politicians to grow up....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Climate Voter election debate to get big audience
    Auckland, 2 September 2014 - Tickets to tomorrow night’s first-ever Climate Voter election debate have sold out but an online audience will also get to see the event live....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • The Edge show disregard for consent
    The Edge has shown complete disregard for consent, for women’s bodies and in doing so has contributed to the wider issue of rape culture in New Zealand says specialist sexual violence prevention organisation, Sexual Abuse Prevention Network. Yesterday,...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • The Rock is Fuelling New Zealand’s Roastbuster Rape Culture
    The Rock are still displaying without-consent images of Jennifer Lawrence and other celebrities online. They are making fun of this without-consent action, saying that she was "asking for it", etc. They appear to be supporting this kind of...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • HRLA Condemns Murder of Filipino Human Rights lawyer
    Attorney Rodolfo R. Felicio, a member of the National Union of Peoples Lawyers , was gunned down while working on a land dispute in Rizal, east of Manila. Two caretakers of the disputed land were also injured in the attack....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • SFO lays charges for procurement fraud
    Two individuals have been charged in the Auckland District Court today with Crimes Act charges laid by the Serious Fraud Office for alleged fraud against Mighty River Power Limited relating to procurement for the Company’s Southdown power station....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Commitment to lifting wages good for New Zealand
    The Service and Food Workers Union has applauded the Green Party workers’ policy announced today....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Sykes: There’s Only One Poll That Counts
    “One of the oldest sayings in politics is that there is only one poll that counts – the one on Election Day – and that’s the one that I am focusing on” remarked the MANA Movement candidate for Waiariki, Annette...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Winston Peters Shown up by the Civilian Party
    Even the satirical 'Civilian Party' has now offered the Taxpayers’ Union more credible figures for the ' Bribe-O-Meter ' than Winston Peters’ New Zealand First. The Taxpayers’ Union Bribe-O-Meter now includes, National, Labour, the Greens,...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Further criminal investigation into CTV Building collapse
    Police has today confirmed it will be advancing the criminal investigation into the collapse of the CTV building in February 2011....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Greens policy to restore link between effort and reward
    The Green Party’s new workers policy articulates an alternative to wage repression and job insecurity based on restoring the link between effort and reward, according to FIRST Union. The core tenets of the policy include implementing an $18 minimum...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Greens workers policy supported by union movement
    The CTU is supporting the Green Party’s policy launched today focused on improving life for working New Zealanders. “This policy shows the Greens commitment to collective bargaining as the best and fairest way to improve workers terms and conditions. It...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Research Scholarships for Cannabis Treatments
    Medical cannabis research will be boosted by $140 million if the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party is elected on September 20. Pediatric epilepsy treatment will be one of the main priorities for the research scholarships....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Ngai Te Rangi Change to Tribal Elections
    Ngai Te Rangi has begun a postal vote of beneficiaries to change the way representatives are elected to the two Ngai Te Rangi tribal organisations....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Greens’ commitment to pay equity welcomed by workers
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says the 58,000 workers they represent will benefit from the announcement by the Green Party of a commitment to pay equity and to a living wage for core public servants and contractors....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Real People Powering Real Policy
    New Zealanders from all walks of life have helped the Internet Party create a full platform of strong, progressive and realistic policies that will create a better future for everyone, says leader Laila Harré....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • University of Canterbury to help with forestry safety
    The University of Canterbury is to launch a new research project to make sure New Zealand’s new forestry roads are safe and are established with minimal environmental impact....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Time to get serious about ending homelessness!
    New Zealand needs a comprehensive set of policies that address the housing and support needs of homeless people as well as significantly increasing the supply of affordable, good quality houses and flats....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Hundreds to join domestic, sexual violence march
    Several social service providers from across New Zealand have come together to call for an end to the epidemic level of domestic and sexual violence in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Students helped with debt repayments
    New Zealand students now living in Australia are being reminded not to ignore their student loan debt as Inland Revenue expands its latest tool to help with repayments....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Launch of GenderNeutral.co.nz website
    GenderNeutral.co.nz are excited to announce the launch of their new website, GenderNeutral.co.nz ....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Factory farming debaters to look chicken in the eye
    MPs participating in a panel discussion about factory farming will come face-to-face with a real live hen, rescued from the claws of the intensive farming industry. Hettie the Hen will demonstrate to the MPs what little space is afforded to...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Leadership stands strong behind Internet MANA relationship
    “There is now, and always will be, a range of views about many issues within our movement and members are free to express them, but Georgina’s views on Kim Dotcom are not shared by the MANA Movement leadership or the...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Personal Statement by Matthew Hooton
    Personal Statement by Matthew Hooton 1 September 2014 For Immediate Release “This morning I made comments on Radio New Zealand’s Nine to Noon programme about an attempt by staff in the Prime Minister’s Office to interfere in the appointment...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • The Worm turns down for John Key
    John Key struggled to coax The Worm above the line in Thursday’s Leaders Debate, according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor, the original Worm. John Key struggled to coax The Worm above the line in Thursday’s Leaders Debate, according to Roy Morgan’s...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • The Edge Posts Naked Photos Without Consent
    The Edge website, owned by Media Works have published fully naked photographs of Jennifer Lawrence without her consent....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Statement from the Governor-General on Ashburton Shootings
    The Governor-General, Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae, has expressed his deep shock following the shooting of three people in Ashburton today....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Update on IGIS inquiry into release of NZSIS information
    In recognition of the public interest, the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, took the unusual step of providing an update during the course of an inquiry and confirmed today that she would be summoning a number of individuals...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • An Open Government Plan developed in secrecy
    The State Services Commission sent NZ’s Open Government Action Plan to the international Open Government Partnership (OGP) Secretariat on 31 July. The countries involved in the OGP since its inception - from the UK and US to Indonesia and Brazil...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • KiwiRail; another year older and deeper in debt
    That is a lot of money and there are lessons that need to be learnt before we pour in another $1 billion....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Fonterra China Deal Demands Safe Supply Chain
    The future success of Fonterra’s deal to sell infant formula in China [1] requires all milk it uses be safe and for Fonterra to secure its supply chain from contamination by GE DNA and pesticide residues. There is now significant...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • HRC praises Auckland mum for speaking out
    Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy has praised an Auckland mother of four who went public after humiliating treatment by staff at The Warehouse....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Southern DHB refers disputed issue to Serious Fraud Office
    Following advice from forensic investigation firm Beattie Varley Limited, Southern District Health Board has referred the expenditure at the centre of its long running dispute with South Link Health to the Serious Fraud Office. The parties have been...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • The Letter 1 September 2014
    Last night’s TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll puts the left and right 60 MPs each. United and the Maori Party say they will go with the side that gets to 61 MPs. ACT just needs just 1.3% or 28 thousand Party...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Shopping Giveaway Harmless Fun For Kids
    Family First NZ is rubbishing claims by critics including Gareth Morgan that the New World ‘Little Shop’ promotion is harmful for kids, and says that kids should be allowed to be kids. “Children love acting like their parents and pretending...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Red Cross launches employment service for former refugees
    New Zealand Red Cross is encouraging employers to give refugees a fresh startwith the launch of Pathways to Employment, a nationwide work assistance service....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • EDS welcomes Labour’s Conservation Policy
    The Environmental Defence Society has welcomed Labour’s Conservation Policy including the key objective of halting the current pattern of indigenous biodiversity decline within ten years....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Poverty is falling and income inequality is not rising
    “A Roy Morgan poll shows that the issue people are most concerned about is income inequality. This just goes to show how the persistent repetition of a lie bewilders the public. Income inequality is not in fact rising. And the...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Rotary NZ responding to Fiji water and sanitation issues
    Clean water and sanitation are vital to health. In Fiji Rotary New Zealand have been targeting 22 communities that are experiencing severe hardship mainly because they don’t have access to clean water for their drinking, cleaning and cooking needs....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Work & Income shooting a Tragedy
    Kay Brereton speaking on behalf of the National Beneficiary Advocacy Consultancy group says; “Two people shot and another wounded, this is a tragedy and our deepest sympathy goes out to the family and whanau of the victims, as well as...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • 1080 Poison Deer Repellent not Effective – Farmers
    Four deer have been found dead within a farmer's bush block, after an aerial 1080 poison drop applied with deer repellent. The drop was part of a 30,000 hectare drop across the Northern Pureora Forest Park....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Employment Charter will strengthen migrants’ rights
    Establishing an Employment Charter for construction companies is a critical step to strengthening the rights of migrant workers that are fast becoming the face of the Christchurch rebuild, according to an alliance of union groups. The charter has...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Global March For Elephants and Rhino
    It’s a trans-national business that funds terrorist organisations, fuels conflict in Africa, and poses environmental, development and security challenges. The illegal wildlife trade is also a lucrative business, generating an estimated USD$20 billion...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • New series of videos aimed at disengaged youth
    From the people who brought you 'NZ Idle' (NZ's favourite web series about an artist on the dole) comes a new series about election time: Choice Lolz....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Picket Of Leaders Christchurch Debate
    KEEP OUR ASSETS PICKET OF LEADERS CHRISTCHURCH DEBATE TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 2nd, 6 p.m. ST MARGARETS COLLEGE, SHREWSBURY STREET, MERIVALE...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
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