About the latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, September 28th, 2021 - 152 comments
Categories: act, Christopher Luxon, david seymour, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Simon Bridges, uncategorized - Tags:

So the latest Colmar Brunton One News poll has been released.  And the results are:

The commentary is interesting.  Pundits claim that both Labour and National have suffered some damage.  The reality is that Labour is at levels that in any MMP election except for the last it would have dreamed of.  If in the future Labour repeated its result from the last election I would give up political activism because it would no longer be needed.  I would join up with Greenpeace and buy some super glue.

To repeat this result for Labour was better than any MMP result except for the last one.  And this result for National was worse than any MMP result except for 2002 which was pretty spectacularly bad.

Labour and Green are on 51%.  National and Act are on 40%.  This is still comfortable.  At the 2014 election the Labour-Green total was 36% by way of comparison.

New Zealand First’s surge is of concern.  If they made it back next election they would be a major impediment.  Now is the time for brave decisive leadership.  Now is not the time to allow the rantings of your grandfather talking about how it used to be to divert attention from the really important decisions we need to make to address future crises like, for instance, climate change.

Act is doing well.  There are many grumpy people around.  There has been loud concerted public commentary against the latest lockdown?  It is not as if Aotearoa is performing better than all of the OECD in terms of Covid deaths.  Well actually we are but judging from the commentary this feature is not relevant.  Democracy is a complicated beast.  Uninformed random reckons are numerically worth just as much as the most pristine rational intellectually informed opinions.  And there is a market for those who stroke ill informed opinions.

The leadership result was interesting.  There will be some effort to suggest that Jacinda’s 44% support rating is somehow a vote of no confidence.  For many years I have dreamed of this sort of result for a Labour leader.

Judith Collins is in major trouble.  The repeated leaking from her caucus reminds me of how Kevin Rudd undermined Julia Gillard.  The leaking was totally motivated by self interest and not by a desire to improve the common good.  Political parties with this sort of activity should be punished mercilessly.  Having a caucus with this level of shit fuckery happening in it should be reason for the electorate to never trust them again.

For Labour this is a good result, down from the stratospheric recent results but totally consistent with the mood of the electorate, that still celebrates our Covid status but is tiring of lockdowns.  And for National this is a catastrophe.  Their leader is operating at just over a tenth of the popularity levels of Labour’s leader.

For Judith the only question is when.  For Labour if they can overcome this latest Covid incursion I would expect their support to improve.

152 comments on “About the latest Colmar Brunton poll ”

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  1. Gosman 1
    28 September 2021 at 8:22 am

    Labour and The Greens on 51% at this point in the election cycle with the pandemic and government responses foremost in voters minds is not as strong a position as you suggest. They do have another buffer in the 2% support that the Maori Party and the support for parties below the 5% threshold but we are only talking about a 4 or 5% swing needed for the Center right. That is certainly very possible in two years especially given the fact that the government is failing on a number of key areas like housing and the 3-waters debacle.

    • observer 1.1
      28 September 2021 at 8:32 am

      "Centre right" … ha ha.

      You can't be gung-ho for ACT's grubby race-baiting and still claim the centre. Pick one.

      You might want to check these numbers first …

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-the-race-relations-debate-kiwis-think-judith-collins-is-being-divisive.html

      • Michael 1.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 2:45 pm

        Nothing "centre-Right" about ACT, or National under Crusher. A combined total of 40% tells me that the politics of hate and fear are doing well. A good result from Labour and Greens but no room for complacency.

    • lprent 1.2
      28 September 2021 at 9:33 am

      National and Act on 40% at this point in the election cycle with the pandemic and government responses foremost in voters minds is not as strong a position as you suggest. They do not have another buffer unless the grandfather vote swings their way – but of course he still remembers National from 1998.

      • Gosman 1.2.1
        28 September 2021 at 9:52 am

        Eh??? I don't understand the reference to grandfather vote and 1998. Perhaps your comment would have more impact if you took the time to explain that bit or is this just an internal joke for yourself?

        • roblogic 1.2.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 12:17 pm

          IIRC it was when Shipley stabbed Jim Bolger in the back.. and Collins is nowhere near as competent as that lot

        • Barfly 1.2.1.2
          28 September 2021 at 1:49 pm

          Duh…Winston Peters and the waka jumpers Gosman. Winston does not forget or forgive betrayal of such magnitude.

        • lprent 1.2.1.3
          28 September 2021 at 6:42 pm

          Try reading the post for a change rather than skipping straight to comments. It makes sense if you can read..

          A robust debate isn’t made by someone shouting (or commenting) fast. It is made by responding to points raised by others as well as pushing your own views. Regrettably you seldom do the former. In case you do ‘t appear to have read the post providing providing debate context – it is no wonder that you are dazed and confused.

  2. observer 2
    28 September 2021 at 8:24 am

    Historical comparison: 2nd term, 1 year in. Key in 2012, heading for a 3rd term.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_New_Zealand_general_election

    National's pollling then similar to Labour now, across a range of polls. But National had to do it all on their own (bar a couple of one-seat rats and mice). They did have the Maori Party onside, but that version of the party was not today's, and nor was National.

    Despite a lack of allies, Key won his 3rd term comfortably enough. Ardern's position is clearly stronger.

  3. Gezza 3
    28 September 2021 at 8:25 am

    “I would join up with Greenpeace and buy some super glue.”
    ………………………………..

    I’m new here, so forgive me if I’m a little slow on the uptake sometimes. But why would you buy superglue, exactly?

    I reckon a party to watch might also be Te Pāti Māori. They’ve a pretty slick website going & have a clear strategy to raise their profile with political stunts & authentic campaigning on Māori issues. They will compete strongly for a lot more votes from Māori voters.

    • I Feel Love 3.1
      28 September 2021 at 8:32 am

      Agree with you there Gezza, & I hope so. (& not just māori voters, I’ve voted for them in the past & I doubt I’m the only non māori to do so).

      • Gezza 3.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 8:58 am

        No, you’re not alone there. This Pākehā has voted Labour for candidate & Māori for party too. 👍🏼

        Altho I’m keeping an eye on Rawiri Waititi ti make sure he doesn’t lean too far into the realm of Pākehā-bashing for Māori votes.

    • Gosman 3.2
      28 September 2021 at 8:34 am

      What will that likely mean in terms of the Center Right versus Center Left bloc though?

      • Red Blooded One 3.2.1
        28 September 2021 at 8:43 am

        Perhaps with the rise of ACT we now have a Centre-Left block and a Right Block. There is so little of a Centre-Right anymore they would be under the margin of error. You can keep calling them Centre-Right to try and suit your purpose but calling a Wolf a Sheep doesn't make it Baa.

        • Gosman 3.2.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 8:55 am

          I suspect you ideological bias blinkers you to political reality.

          • Red Blooded One 3.2.1.1.1
            28 September 2021 at 8:57 am

            Pot meet kettle.

          • Ed1 3.2.1.1.2
            28 September 2021 at 10:59 am

            Which naturally applies to many people Gosman. Chris Finlayson has been selling himself to radio a bit in recent times – he described National as being a coalition between Liberals and Conservatives; he sees himself on the Liberal side of the party, able to come to accommodations with Labour to enable effective government (he referred to advice he received that to be effective, it is desirable for both government and opposition to reach agreement on about 70% of legislation). He implied that the rump of National left in Parliament is now almost entirely from the Conservative side; and that they will need significant change to return to power. Using the Liberal / Country party example from Australia would suggest a libertarian ACT party sharing far right economic policies with a socially conservative National party – probably with ACT dominant. Seymour claims to be picking up support from some former Green supporters, but I suspect that statement is more about shoring up the relationship with National than reality.

      • observer 3.2.2
        28 September 2021 at 8:44 am

        When the Centre Right have a bloc, we'll let you know.

        Are you posting from the USA?

    • Ad 3.3
      28 September 2021 at 8:38 am

      OMG you haven't been part of a strong activist group. You really missed out.

      It's how you disable their locks.

      • Gezza 3.3.1
        28 September 2021 at 9:02 am

        😳

        Why would Micky want to disable the Greens’ locks? 🤔

        (I can understand why someone might’ve wanted to disable Nándor Tánczos’s locks.)

        • Macro 3.3.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 9:37 am

          Gezza it's not the greens locks but the mining and oil drilling firms locks that the super glue is intended. Embuggerance is the name of the game.

        • Ad 3.3.1.2
          28 September 2021 at 9:38 am

          Do you know what Greenpeace do?

          • Gezza 3.3.1.2.1
            28 September 2021 at 9:55 am

            Lotsa stuff, but their NZ branch website keeps crashing & won't load on my iPad so…think I'll leave it at that, thanks.

    • Janice 3.4
      28 September 2021 at 8:47 am

      Labour and the Greens have lost women voters due to them pushing the sex self selection bill, which will erase women's safe and exclusive spaces from sports to toilets. I will be voting Te Pāti Māori if this bill goes through.

    • Robert Guyton 3.5
      28 September 2021 at 9:36 am

      For sticking your palm to your face, Gezza.

    • lprent 3.6
      28 September 2021 at 9:39 am

      But why would you buy superglue, exactly?

      It allows you to do all sorts of things like super gluing yourself to something that you do not want to be removed from. Google "activists and super glue".

      Here is an old article on the practice from 2008

    • mickysavage 3.7
      28 September 2021 at 9:52 am

      But why would you buy superglue, exactly?

      Expression of despair at the lack of action on climate change and an indication of a willingness to engage in more direct protest action.

    • Anne 3.8
      28 September 2021 at 10:13 am

      I think mickysavage might have been having a little humorous dig at Greenpeace who have a past reputation for gluing themselves to things. At least that is how I read it.

      Edit: oops. ms has already replied. Never mind.

  4. Jenny how to get there 4
    28 September 2021 at 8:42 am

    Greens N/C sad, sad , sad.

    • observer 4.1
      28 September 2021 at 8:48 am

      Why is it sad?

      The Greens' core support is higher than it once was. Previously getting up to 10+ depended on Labour being in trouble.

      In 2023, with an electorate anchor, the usual narrative ("can they stay above 5%?") will be replaced by "how much influence will they have in Ardern's 3rd term"?

      • Gosman 4.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 8:57 am

        They have to get traction on an issue of concern to more than just their core supporter base. They have failed to do that so far.

        • Muttonbird 4.1.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 9:16 am

          Err…the environment?

          • Margaritte 4.1.1.1.1
            28 September 2021 at 9:46 am

            nah there is no more support to be had from promoting 1080

          • Gosman 4.1.1.1.2
            28 September 2021 at 9:53 am

            They are failing to get any traction on the environment. Why is that do you think?

            • roy cartland 4.1.1.1.2.1
              28 September 2021 at 11:06 am

              Because you can't make an immediate fortune saving boring old trees and penguins. All you can do is avert catastrophe – for sake of OTHERS, to boot!

              And when your media makes it's dollar negating them, of course they're going to be hostile; forcing them to do crazy things just to get the oxygen.

              Gos and Andre, you could always contribute to, amplify and encourage their enviro work instead of Bradburying it. Since you seem to think it would be so nice.

            • Incognito 4.1.1.1.2.2
              28 September 2021 at 12:07 pm

              Because the ute wheels are spinning too fast in the wet mud after the recent floodings all over NZ.

          • Andre 4.1.1.1.3
            28 September 2021 at 9:58 am

            Yeah, it would be nice if the current crop of Greens actually showed more than just a token smidge of interest in the environment.

            • weka 4.1.1.1.3.1
              28 September 2021 at 10:54 am

              Lol, lazy, stupid Greens with their Climate Minister flying across the planet in the middle of a pandemic to attend strategy meetings about the most important crisis for humans of all time.

              Centre lefties are happy with Labour/Ardern's less serious approach to the environment. However the Greens pulled Labour greenward. Well done Greens.

              • Barfly …
                28 September 2021 at 1:56 pm

                "Lol, lazy, stupid Greens with their Climate Minister flying across the planet"

                Seriously? There was/.is no remote attendance option. That's not Shaw's fault it's the bloody organisers either fly or don't go either way you will be damned. Please do better Weka.

                • weka …
                  28 September 2021 at 2:15 pm

                  why are you suggesting I do better? I don't think anyone should be flying other than for essential reasons. Whether COP meetings count as essential, I don't know, the reasons for Shaw attending in person are sound, so maybe that applies to everyone? Seems more legit than say NZ letting in a million international flying tourists each year again.

            • tc 4.1.1.1.3.2
              28 September 2021 at 11:02 am

              +100 not so much Green party but more a light pastel rendition that's fading further.

              It appears that turei left and took their mojo with her

              • weka …
                28 September 2021 at 2:18 pm

                Snort. Turei got taken down and then Labour surged. Tell me about all the Labour voters that secretly want to vote GP but won't because the GP aren't left enough. No eye roll big enough for that.

                The GP policies are of course to the left of Labour still. NZ doesn't want a green government and apparently doesn't even want a workers party any more. Take that up with liberals (liberals and lefties slamming the Greens at teh same time as wanting a government with the kind of policies the Greens have is quite something to behold).

  5. Treetop 5
    28 September 2021 at 9:02 am

    I think this latest Colmar Brunton poll reflects what would National give and do for you in a Covid out break cycle?

    There is nothing better that National can do that the government are not doing or planning to do.

    Caution when it comes to opening up the country because there is no turning back once the flood gates are open.

    National has a stale leader who is not able to alter her political style which is playing the person and not the ball (a version of dirty politics).

  6. Robert Guyton 6
    28 September 2021 at 9:43 am

    I think the nature of The Greens is, and has long been, misunderstood. They will maintain their percentage of the overall vote always and it will not fall significantly nor rise significantly, save for some out-of-the-blue event. The green tribe is a fluctuating one, reacting to societal trends. There's movement in and out of the group, but it's form and bulk remains steady. There's a floor and a ceiling to their support. Presently, they are comfortably embedded in Government. The party's nature changes only slightly depending upon whether they are inside or outside of the tent. Their present situation is to be celebrated, in my opinion. They spent too long in Opposition or in the wilderness. This poll says to me, breathe easy 🙂

    • Ad 6.1
      28 September 2021 at 9:57 am

      Inhaling regularly is certainly evidence that one is indeed still alive. Something of a minimalist position for existence, but each to their own.

      Hopefully you went along to the full polling breakdown they showed in August.

      https://www.greens.org.nz/august_green_party_polling_update

      At the 2020 election the Greens got 7.9% and Act were on 7.6%.

      Quite possibly most of the Green solid supporters would feel the same way as you and it's sufficient to exist, whether one is in government or not.

      Act are showing the Greens that it's possible to get off your ass, do some fucking work, and get rewarded for it.

      • arkie 6.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 10:30 am

        Just one example of the Greens doing ‘some fucking work’ and we, as a nation, are rewarded when the Govt is forced to act:

        September 16, 2021 7:10 AM

        The Green Party is launching an open letter to the Minister for ACC asking for all birth injuries and trauma to be covered, and the letter has strong support from the sector.

        “Most injuries caused during childbirth aren’t covered by ACC, and data from ACC shows that over the past few years it has become harder to get birth injuries covered,” says Green Party spokesperson for ACC Jan Logie.

        The open letter is publicly supported by many organisations, such as the New Zealand College of Midwives, the Māori Women’s Welfare League, ACC Futures Coalition, and academics Dr Naomi Simmonds and Dr Michelle Wise.

        https://www.greens.org.nz/birth_injuries_must_be_covered_by_acc

        8:24 am today

        Thousands of women injured while giving birth will be eligible for ACC cover, under proposed changes being revealed today.

        The government estimates it will help between 17,000 to 18,000 women each year, and cost ACC around $25 million annually.

        In an exclusive interview, ACC Minister Carmel Sepuloni said it was “the right thing to do”.

        “It’s about fairness, and it is about making sure that women in this country get access to the ACC scheme to the same extent as what men do, and birth injuries can be incredibly serious.”

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/452440/government-reveals-proposed-acc-changes-to-cover-birth-injuries-the-right-thing-to-do

        • Patricia Bremner 6.1.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 10:42 am

          yessmiley Well done indeed.

        • Ad 6.1.1.2
          28 September 2021 at 10:49 am

          Hey great work on launching a letter Greens!

          Rise up that Minister and Leader of the Climate Emergency. Hold that letter high.

          Rise up that Minister for Homelessness. Blanket those homeless with copies of that letter.

          14% is in your grasp.

          • tc 6.1.1.2.1
            28 September 2021 at 11:04 am

            Rise up and go to another Bellamy's meal it seems.

          • arkie 6.1.1.2.2
            28 September 2021 at 11:09 am

            See the bit where the Govt is acting due to the pressure campaign? That's politics that's change-orientated rather than about gaining and maintaining seats in parliament.

            You often bemoan the lack of action by this Labour Govt, these petitions provide the impetus for them to do something, seems the Greens are more effective at that than these Labour Party conference working groups you're so keen on me joining.

            Keep on with your paternalistic derision of the GP and it's supporters, it amply demonstrates the 'born-to-rule' attitude of careerist politicians.

            • Ad 6.1.1.2.2.1
              28 September 2021 at 11:18 am

              We'll be waiting for change following the receipt of the letter.

              I certainly regularly have a crack at Labour, and also praise them when they are going well. I'm a Labour Party member and proud of it.

              Greens however almost never see anything but good in their party and never take any kind of critique well. They are all across this site and stupidly defensive no matter how pathetic their partys' performance.

              If the Greens do something better than a letter and a risible performance at a climate change conference, I'll be there singing their praises as well.

              • arkie …
                28 September 2021 at 11:32 am

                What are you even talking about?

                The Govt is acting on the letter (and accompanying petition) as of today.

                I’m a Labour Party member and proud of it.

                And this is why you must continually shit on the Greens, to do otherwise would be to admit that they are the origin of any leftward movement in this country. This is why you get so defensive/offensive whenever anyone points out the disconnect between Ardern’s rhetoric on neo-liberalism, and how the party actually governs.

      • weka 6.1.2
        28 September 2021 at 10:51 am

        Or, maybe the Greens understand their own politics better and know that in the long game their energy is better spent at this time working on change rather than trying to compete with a very popular Labour leader.

        When Labour's leadership and caucus was having the same trouble that National are now, the Greens did better. It's not that ACT are hard workers and Greens are lazy, it's that the Greens want change not power. Understanding Green kaupapa on its own terms, whether one agrees with it or not, leads to better understanding of GP actions.

        Which isn't to say they're above criticism. But much of the critique I see is superficial and doesn't take into account what the GP actually do and want.

        • Ad 6.1.2.1
          28 September 2021 at 11:13 am

          The Greens are certainly not in danger of competing with Jacinda Ardern. On the contrary their delivery has been so poor that Ardern's popularity is simply carrying them.

          There's no point doing any substantive critique of any movement so content with standing still, because they see no need to change.

          • RedLogix 6.1.2.1.1
            28 September 2021 at 11:28 am

            That and the sad realisation I came to some years back that one of the biggest obstacles to getting to good environmental outcomes were a slew of anti-science, malthusian ideas entrenched among the trad green movements.

            Good intentions, unintended consequences.

            • Gezza 6.1.2.1.1.1
              28 September 2021 at 11:39 am

              Marama Davidson’s ill-conceived push for women to claim the C* word would have to be one of the most spectacular epic fails in Green Party history. While I know where she was coming from it was a gob-smacking thing for any politician to do. She’ll most likely be forever associated with that fiasco.

          • weka 6.1.2.1.2
            28 September 2021 at 12:41 pm

            Lol, that's you just making shit up. And projecting perhaps through a Labour supporter lens. It's a stupid argument that goes nowhere. I'm more interested in looking at what is working than simply dissing whatever I don't like or don't understand.

            The Greens want change not power, and they're very good at advancing their objectives even without power. The lack of significant movement on climate isn't on Shaw/GP, it's on Ardern and the Labour caucus who hold the power that Shaw doesn't have. Shaw is making changes despite that. All power to him.

      • Ed1 6.1.3
        28 September 2021 at 11:13 am

        There has not been much work visible from ACT – do you have any examples? I see Seymour as picking the mood of National supporters better than Collins; his slogans are better, he does not deny that the New Zealand has done very well regarding the pandemic (or even acknowledge government success more than he has to), but tries to appear friendly and reasonable. He is also fortunate that Collins displays such extremes that a more reasoned position is not hard. . .

      • Robert Guyton 6.1.4
        28 September 2021 at 11:44 am

        ACT's reward will be another term in Opposition. The "work" they have done involves having Seymour bark more.

      • Barfly 6.1.5
        28 September 2021 at 2:02 pm

        Rofl …… comparing the ACT and Greens percentage Ad? Act is feasting on on an extremely ill National . The Greens are unable to feast on a very robust Labour party. Your dislike of the Greens is affecting your judgement I believe.

  7. barry 7
    28 September 2021 at 9:45 am

    So 11% of people hate ballet?

  8. Ad 8
    28 September 2021 at 9:49 am

    In 2018 National were on 54% and Act were on 1%. So we can see the direction of travel.

    https://thestandard.org.nz/pollwatch-colmar-brunton-16-4-18/

    The Ardern-Labour Party is substantially more popular than anything under Clark, Lange, Kirk, or Nordmeyer. The more this level of dominance sustains, the more the right will tear itself down.

    • swordfish 8.1
      28 September 2021 at 10:15 am

      .

      The Ardern-Labour Party is substantially more popular than anything under Clark, Lange, Kirk, or Nordmeyer.

      Depends what you mean by "popular".

      Are you suggesting the Nordmeyer / Kirk / Lange / Clark Labour Parties never reached as high as 43% in opinion polls ? Because I can tell you all 4 exceeded that rating (and yes that even includes Nordy … in the first ever nationwide polls in the run-up to the 1960 & 1963 General Elections).

      • Patricia Bremner 8.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 10:16 pm

        In the days of first past the post?

        • swordfish 8.1.1.1
          29 September 2021 at 12:31 pm

          .

          Yep … but irrelevant … Ad's talking about unprecedented popularity specifically for the Labour Party … not for the Left as a whole.

          Either Labour specifically is more popular now than it's ever been … or it's not.

          [And, in fact, Ad’s assertion isn’t even true for the Left Bloc as a whole]

  9. Stuart Munro 9
    28 September 2021 at 10:09 am

    I wouldn't read too much into it – a bit of boredom setting in among the major parties, and ACT temporarily embiggened by despairing Gnats – doesn't really matter whether they stay or return to their fold – they won't have much effect on NZ.

    • Anne 9.1
      28 September 2021 at 10:29 am

      Yes. I was planning to comment along those lines.

      David Seymour thinks he is the reason why ACT is doing well. Typical of the narcissistic little chump that he is. In reality, it's all about a large chunk of disgruntled Nats who will return to the party the moment they get what they perceive to be a good leader. And we all know who that is going to be.

      • Gosman 9.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 10:37 am

        Except National has about as much support as they got at the last election and the entire Center Right vote has increased. This tends to suggest your analysis of ACT merely cannibalising National's supporter base is inaccurate. For it to be correct National would have successfully pilfered 6 percentage points from Labour and THEN lost 6 percent to ACT. Not really believable given the performance of National at the moment.

        • Gypsy 9.1.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 10:55 am

          Party vote comparisons 2020 election v latest poll:

          Labour 50% v 43%

          Green 8% v 8%

          National 26% v 26%

          ACT 7% v 14%

          Maori 1% v 2%

          NZF 5% v 3%

          (NZF actually got 4.6% in 2020).

          The only changes of any significance have been the drop in Labour's support (7%), and the rise in ACT's support (7%).

          I don't believe for one minute National are attracting votes from Labour and then shedding the same amount to ACT. My guess is Labour are shedding votes directly to ACT.

          • Gosman 9.1.1.1.1
            28 September 2021 at 10:59 am

            Exactly. This is something many people on the left here cannot grasp.

            • AB 9.1.1.1.1.1
              28 September 2021 at 11:36 am

              Oh I think we do – it's a phenomenon that is well- recognised, i.e. if timid social-democrat governments don't make progress on solving the problems that concern their natural constituency, some of those people will go looking for solutions on the far right. This phenomenon is seen by many as an explanation for Trump and for Boris Johnson taking UK Labour's 'red wall'. The voters who do this mostly end up with buyers remorse if the far right actually get power – but it's not really their fault.

            • Muttonbird 9.1.1.1.1.2
              28 September 2021 at 2:14 pm

              It's cute how the ACT Party are desperate for it to be true huge numbers of left wing people are suddenly flocking to their ‘sensible’ polices.

              Gosman's day has been given over to pushing this fantasy.

              It's as if left wing votes hold more value and importance for them than right wing votes…

          • Kevin Warburton 9.1.1.1.2
            29 September 2021 at 12:54 pm

            So basically Nat voters that had switched from Nats to Labour have now switched again this time over to ACT. I would contend that 7% vote difference in Labour's vote is due to the soft Nats switcharuni mostly. Longterm soft Labour vote most likely to switch if to Greens or NZFirst or to Maori Party rather than to ACT or Nats.

            I've voted Alliance/Greens & Labor my entire voting life while being a member of one far left organization or another over the last 27 years. I will never vote ACT or Nats but based on Labour/Greens lack of achievements & not having courage of conviction they've lost my vote for next election. I thought about voting NZFirst last election as a thank you for supporting a Labour …but boy is there some ingratitude to Winnie from woke so-called Labour Leftists. I regret not doing so coz I thought they'd get over the line.

            As long as there is no real left party to reign in pc/wokeism and neo-liberal internationalist globalism the NZF come closest. I'm no longer going to let the perfect get in the way of the good. If I can't have a real socialist party I'll settle for a left-nationalist one.

            Next election I'm voting NZF and switching to Maori electoral roll to vote for Maori Party candidate.

            • Gypsy 9.1.1.1.2.1
              29 September 2021 at 1:54 pm

              "So basically Nat voters that had switched from Nats to Labour have now switched again this time over to ACT. "

              Yep, that's my 'reckon'.

              "…but based on Labour/Greens lack of achievements & not having courage of conviction they've lost my vote for next election."

              I am involved in a grass roots environmental group, and most of the other participants are considerably to the left of my politics. They are mostly sharing similar sentiments to yours, particularly about the Greens.

              I'm a bit more defensive of Labour's situation. If they are to govern long term (2-3 terms) they need to be the 'broad church' that Clark and Key achieved, drawing support from the centre and soft voters on each side. That dissapoints some of their supporters, but it's just pragmatic politics.

              • Kevin Warburton …
                1 October 2021 at 1:09 pm

                Yeah i get that some pragmatism is necessary but the all things to all (most) people ends up kind of being no things to anyone. Broad church parties are a legacy of two-party dominated FPP with MMP we still haven't transitioned fully to more honed/focused parties. It's kind of ridiculous that religious conservatives, right libertarians, Social-Economic Liberals and right nationalists can be clumped in same party eg Nats (up to now) or on other side of aisle Socialists, SD, DS, Left Libertarians, Liberals and neo-Liberals all cheek to jowl within Labour. With Nat implosion leaving rump dominated by religious types with Nat Liberals decimated and rise of right libertarian ACT maybe it's time for more shake ups politically. We need a new classical Liberal Party, a new explicitly Socialist Party, a pure Green Party that's neither getting distracted by wokeism nor capitulating to capitalism. Parties that are more honest, straight up where they stand rather than ones that are tacking left or right according to different leaders/factional wins or trying to please everybody. I know I'm dreaming, but one can hope!

        • Anne 9.1.1.2
          28 September 2021 at 11:24 am

          The cannibalising of the National vote began well before the last election. It had been slowly building up since John Key quit the scene in 2016.

          • Gosman 9.1.1.2.1
            28 September 2021 at 11:36 am

            What evidence do you have for that view?

            • Gypsy 9.1.1.2.1.1
              29 September 2021 at 2:22 pm

              In the week that John Key announced his resignation (5th December 2016), National polled at 45%.

              Between then and 1 August 2017 (when Jacinda Ardern became Leader of the Opposition) National's lowest poll result was 43%, their highest was 49%.

              At the 2017 election, National's vote was 44.4%, 0.6% below that poll almost a year earlier.

              After the 2017 election, National polled regularly in the mid to high 40’s. The game changer was Covid, and that’s evidenced in the polls that followed the first lockdown.

              National’s polling remained extraordinarily high until March 2020. What cannibalised it was Covid, and then the extraordinary antics of the party since. The timing of Key’s departure was a mere blip.

              • Gypsy …
                29 September 2021 at 2:36 pm

                I forgot to mention that for 3 months after the Christchrch Mosque shooting, National did drop into the low 40's, in fact into the 30's in one poll. They then bounced back into the mid 40's in early June.

              • Drowsy M. Kram …
                29 September 2021 at 3:20 pm

                It was a minor miracle of 2017 (or major curse, depending on your PoV) that Labour (on 36.9%) cobbled together our government against a 44.4% party vote for National. Suspect there's more than a few still scratching their heads about how that, or indeed MMP, was ever allowed to happen.

                Compared to the 2017 GE, in current indicative polls Labour (42%), the Greens (9%) and particularly ACT (0.5 –> 13.5%) are all riding higher, while National's vote is down a whopping 18%.

                Early days, but how's this for a positive opposition National party 2023 election campaign slogan: The Only Way is UP !

                National just have to 'ardern UP and harmonise in the right key smiley

        • Stuart Munro 9.1.1.3
          28 September 2021 at 1:12 pm

          and the entire Center Right vote has increased.

          A pretty ambitious claim for a single poll.

          But I guess when ambitious claims are all you've got, you flaunt them.

    • Stephen D 9.2
      28 September 2021 at 12:55 pm

      Pretty much.

      Mid term polls often give succor to the low and the lonely. Just as theyhave done here.

      Once Mr and Mrs Voter actually have a look at some of ACT's policies, the gloss will come off Seymour's charm.

      Under "insert name of a National Politician here" they will probably rise into the low 30s. Winston will grab 4, Act sink to low teens.

      Labour and the Greens to govern with another handsome majority.

  10. tc 10
    28 September 2021 at 10:23 am

    Looking at the graphic I didn't realize we had 5 leaders.

    Bridges/luxon right behind Judith my how apt. Which one has the cutlery ?

    • Patricia Bremner 10.1
      28 September 2021 at 10:44 am

      All of them have knives tc, there-in lies their problem.

      • tc 10.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 11:08 am

        Problem ? The msm appears entertained by it as the articles pretty much write themselves.

        Grab a piece from the brash/bridges/muller era, 'find and replace' remove references to events, place recent events in and ta dah.

  11. Pete 11
    28 September 2021 at 11:13 am

    In October 203 there could be a private cup of tea in Mt Eden where Seymour offers Bridges the Deputy PM's position.

  12. Cricklewood 12
    28 September 2021 at 11:40 am

    Winston I suspect is going to find fertile ground this time… Covid response, Three Waters, S.E.A's, He Puapua etc can see him easily getting over 5 percent plenty of traditionally blue rural vote went Labours way last election and I can see him picking a decent chunk of that especially if the Nats are still rudderless.

    • Gezza 12.1
      28 September 2021 at 11:48 am

      Hmmm. One should never rule out completely yet another Lazarus-like rise from the dead for that silver fox, Peters, I suppose.

      But the number of folk who will blindly respond to Peters’ dog-whistling & wrecking-ball style of politicking by voting for him & NZF must by now be rather diminished, many having already reached their age-related expiry dates, surely?

      He’s probably the untrustworthiest politician ever to serve in any NZ government.

      • roblogic 12.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 12:22 pm

        Peters has more principles than National's dirty politics operators. Splitting from that shower might have endangered him politically but probably saved his soul from eternal condemnation

        (and going into coalition with Labour saved NZ from a horrible fate in 2016)

        • Gezza 12.1.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 1:05 pm

          The problem with Peters’ principles is they’re so pliable. They can go out the window till next time if he sees it’s to his advantage to forget or modify them. That’s partly why he’s so untrustworthy.

          Coalition partners can never be sure what they’re getting when they sign Peters up.

          I do miss that pompous People’s Champion, the First Minister of The Provinces though. He might have been a complete tosser sometimes, but least Jones was highly entertaining.

        • Ad 12.1.1.2
          28 September 2021 at 1:13 pm

          You don't need principles when you have a coalition agreement so tight it's pretty close to a contract.

          NZF delivered like the milkman last time on what they promised.

      • Cricklewood 12.1.2
        28 September 2021 at 12:42 pm

        There'll be plenty ready to hear the message in the rural towns, especially while National is in disarray and looking at the board selections they've disregarded the rural vote somewhat…

        Im thinking there will be a decent chunk who voted Labour for the first time ever last election and Winston is uniquely placed to win some of those voters especially if Covid has passed and he can get his townhall meetings going around the country.

      • lprent 12.1.3
        28 September 2021 at 6:59 pm

        Problem is that he (and his party) primary demographics gets fed by people moving into it.

        After watching this for the last 30 odd years with people making nearly identical comments to your one. I think I can definitively say that you are wrong.

        I think that he just identified a permanent standing political demographic wave.and exploited it.

        • Gezza 12.1.3.1
          28 September 2021 at 7:10 pm

          Now that I think more about it, you’re probably right. Ihaven’t thought to compare the numbers of votes Peters & NZF get.

          The fascinating thing about Peters is he frequently simply doesn’t deliver what he promised to his voters, pissing them off. Ending up where has this election. Out in the cold.

          Why anybody who’s studied his track record still votes for him I haven’t the foggiest.

          • Ad 12.1.3.1.1
            28 September 2021 at 7:19 pm

            From his last coalition agreement, what did NZF not achieve?

            • Muttonbird 12.1.3.1.1.1
              28 September 2021 at 7:33 pm

              He was going to add value to forestry. Instead, saw mills close.

            • Cricklewood 12.1.3.1.1.2
              28 September 2021 at 7:34 pm

              Re-election….

              But seriously I think some were disappointed that some 'bottom lines' didnt quite make it into the coalition agreement. Not suprising really because Winston was quire good at picking up single issue voters…

              • Gezza …
                28 September 2021 at 8:46 pm

                The NZF/Labour coalition agreements got a pretty extensive list of NZF priority policies. I won't bother going thru them all & checking what got done & what didn't. Too knackered to concentrate properly, atm.

                Been a busy day here.

                Quite a few got honoured & implemented, from a quick scan. But I don't think ALL did. And they might not have included some of Peters' evergreens like a Referendum on the Māori seats – which always appeals to the Mâori-bashing / anti-Waitangi Tribunal element of NZF's voters – imo, & based on comments on other blogs that I've read and/or posted on.

      • Kevin Warburton 12.1.4
        29 September 2021 at 1:04 pm

        Bullshit! Despised by many on both woke left and on economic right means he must be doing something right. But despised doesn't equal untrustworthy LOL as he's been entrusted as Treasurer, Deputy PM, Foreign Affairs Minister & as acting PM etc If he's over the line next election, he'll be entrusted in some similar role yet again if needed by either right or 'left' to enable formation of government.

        • Gezza 12.1.4.1
          29 September 2021 at 1:50 pm

          Yeah, I hsve to admit Kevin that once he’s in the Foreign Minister’s job he does it perfectly – altho that speaks to his natural ability to talk out of both sides of his mouth at the same time. As a former public servant I approved of the way he always batted strongly for his Ministry & his staff.

          The Treasurer’s job was created for him. Not really sure what he did in that job. Didn’t seem to be needed after he left it.

    • Ad 12.2
      28 September 2021 at 1:12 pm

      NZFirst at 3% at this part of the cycle gives very good odds that they will gain 5%.

      At current trajectory Labour will need him to form government.

      • lprent 12.2.1
        28 September 2021 at 7:03 pm

        Yep and this time he has been out of government. The bounce this time is likely to be strongish heading up to the election..

        Especially with National looking like outof the water fish ripe for gutting.

  13. DukeEll 13
    28 September 2021 at 11:40 am

    National caucus leaking like this is more Chris Carter than Kevin Rudd

  14. dv 14
    28 September 2021 at 1:12 pm

    From Martyn Bradbury re ACT policies

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2021/09/28/tvnz-poll-the-rise-of-act/

    ACT’s sudden rise because of National’s implosion means much of their crazy far undergrad right wing policy is not being examined at all…

    • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
    • Interest back on all student loans
    • No Kiwsaver subsidy
    • Cancel winter energy payment
    • Dump all climate crisis legislation
    • no more best start payments for families with new borns
    • cut welfare payments
    • no tax credits for research and development
    • cuts to working for families
    • $7b a year cut in public services
    • Abolish Maori seats
    • Abolish Human Rights Commission
    • Ad 14.1
      28 September 2021 at 1:13 pm

      The rest of his commentary is a wee tad over the top.

    • Barfly 14.2
      28 September 2021 at 2:10 pm

      Act has taken the beat the poor mantle from National…maybe those policies are quite attractive to many erstwhile National voters. Or perhaps Labour are being punished for treating the poor with humanity and compassion instead of beatings.

      • Cricklewood 14.2.1
        28 September 2021 at 3:00 pm

        What humanity? More than ever in 'emergency housing' record rent increases… there's not much humanity in not having a secure affordable roof over your head.

        • garibaldi 14.2.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 3:52 pm

          Look, let's face it – up around 40% of people don't follow politics. They voted for Key because he was a "successful business man so he should be able to fix NZ ", then they voted for Ardern because she "is so kind", now they're moving to Seymour because he is "genuine". They can't vote Collins because she is disingenuous. Basically we are caught up in personality culture wars instead of policy platforms , thanks mainly to the media with their “gotcha” moments.

    • Muttonbird 14.3
      28 September 2021 at 2:27 pm
      • abolish the NZ Screen Production Grant

      This will kill the $3.5B NZ film and TV industry stone cold dead overnight.

      • Gosman 14.3.1
        28 September 2021 at 3:58 pm

        Then it is not an viable industry if it requires government subsidies to operate. There are plenty of work available for high skilled people in NZ such as IT and in the building sector. We can re-deploy people in to areas that would provide benefits to more NZers and not line the pocket of Hollywood financiers.

        • Muttonbird 14.3.1.1
          28 September 2021 at 4:04 pm

          This is a bizarre position to take for a party which is supposed to be about small business and innovation. Equally bizarre to crush an export industry in favour of domestic industry.

          The truth is, ACT hates arts and culture. They believe it frivolous and not worth public patronage in any form. What a drab world it would be if libertarians were taken seriously at all.

          • arkie 14.3.1.1.1
            28 September 2021 at 4:10 pm

            not worth public patronage in any form

            Correct, but private patronage is in the party DNA

            Alan Gibbs was active in the establishment of ACT New Zealand, a libertarian political party that was formed in 1994.

            Gibbs is one of New Zealand's leading art collectors, and since 1991 has been establishing a sprawling 1,000 acres (4.0 km2) sculpture park at Gibbs Farm, which is located on Kaipara Harbour on New Zealand's North Island, 50 kilometres (31 mi) north of Auckland in the Rodney district.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Gibbs

            https://www.gibbsfarm.org.nz/

          • Gosman 14.3.1.1.2
            28 September 2021 at 6:32 pm

            Why is an export industry any more beneficial to an economy than say an import one? Both serve a market and allow people to get goods and services they need and both pay taxes on any profits and wages. The import one also collects GST.

            • Muttonbird 14.3.1.1.2.1
              28 September 2021 at 7:21 pm

              I'm not an economist but from what I've heard it is important to earn more than you spend, on all levels.

              ACT want to chip away at certain unworthy billion dollar export industries. I'm sure National will provide the handbrake to that.

              • Nic the NZer …
                29 September 2021 at 9:38 am

                That would be an unfortunate belief for an economist to have, as the net trade surpluses (deficits) of all nations add up to zero at all times.

                Or similar to something Krugman quipped, Earth has yet to establish trade with Mars.

        • McFlock 14.3.1.2
          28 September 2021 at 4:06 pm

          Still thinking of people as perfectly fungible tokens in some sort of game like Sim City, huh.

          • Gosman 14.3.1.2.1
            28 September 2021 at 6:33 pm

            Are you stating the highly skilled people in the film industry in NZ could not use their talents in other areas of the economy?

            • McFlock 14.3.1.2.1.1
              28 September 2021 at 9:05 pm

              No, just as I'm sure that you're not claiming that every single person in the entertainment industry has skills transferable to industries "such as IT and in the building sector".

        • roy cartland 14.3.1.3
          28 September 2021 at 4:17 pm

          Film and arts skills aren't necessarily transferable to IT. And art is more than an 'industry'. Might as well just say that Parliament isn't a viable industry, I mean Seymore's certainly had quite the pretty handout from govt himself.

          • Gosman 14.3.1.3.1
            28 September 2021 at 6:35 pm

            He's a public servant. Do you think public servants pay is a handout from government?

            • Incognito 14.3.1.3.1.1
              28 September 2021 at 6:49 pm

              Oh, FFS, please don’t insult our intelligence here on TS with that “[David Seymour]’s a public servant” claptrap.

            • Brigid 14.3.1.3.1.2
              28 September 2021 at 7:46 pm

              Seymour's pay is a handout from 100% of tax payers for the benefit of about 12% (or what ever the latest poll declares as his support)

              Good grief that sounds like socialism

        • Incognito 14.3.1.4
          28 September 2021 at 5:34 pm

          You’re correct that it is not viable if the filmmakers decide to go elsewhere instead of NZ.

          The subsidy scheme is a rebate scheme on money spent here in NZ. It is part of an incentive package. You sound a tad disingenuous or silly when you object to these principles of doing business, which are commonplace in the business world. Your objection is ideological in that Government should butt out of such deals, stick to a skeleton of core duties, and leave the rest to businesses operating in unencumbered free market. Mate, you’re dreaming!

    • Pete 14.4
      28 September 2021 at 4:31 pm

      Missing:

      • Most revolutionary change in NZ schooling ever.
  15. coreyjhumm 15
    28 September 2021 at 4:15 pm

    I agree with everything you've said here except Nzf returning is concerning how?

    The only handbrake on Labour is Labour. If now is the time for real leadership…wheres the leadership?!? Housing market out of control, inequality out of control, health system still not up to scratch per Capita, mental health is still a mess, welfare is still in dribbles and we're doing absolutely bugger all on climate.

    Nz first didn't stop labour at all from having the best covid response in the world in 2020 and arguably saved labour from itself because labour could blame nzf for not delivering and nzf stopped the more divisive social justice stuff. Without Winston there wouldn't be a 6th labour govt we'd most likely be in a fifth term of national with Bill English would have a majority. Yuck!

    I'd rather the disgruntled working class votes got to nzf than act. I'll never understand the lefts hatred for NZF other than still being mad about 1996. Nevermind he finally broke the unwritten convention that the largest party wins in 2017 and helped provide an incredibly stable government for the following three years.

    I like Winston. He makes parliament interesting, hates national as much as I do but is smart enough to play the system and get as much as possible by being able to work with both parties rather than settling for crumbs, id rather a national govt work with nzf and be blunted from doing neoliberal dogma than a nat/act govt.

    I personally want a labour/top govt because our times do call for radical leadership and as a gay man from a mixed race working class family I can say rabid identity politics, hate speech legislation and dribble increases to benefits while ignoring the housing crisis, and mental health crisis is not radical leadership.

    Yes this govt is good in emergencies and Ardern has been a great leader during covid but she lacks the vision necessary to take advantage of the crisis and rebuild nz better for a post covid world.

    I'd rather tops radical centerism than labours bland cautious centerism and without Winston Peters parliament tv is an unwatchable snoozefest, there are no good performers in parliament atm and whenever I watch parliament I can't help but think of how there's no potential successor to Ardern in labours caucus and how much of the 2017 class is not getting leadership roles because the 2008-2017 oppose mp crowd are getting all the leadership roles and most of them will retire at the end of this govt leaving a huge caucus with no ministerial experience.

    Anyway if that sounded angry it's not I just don't think nzf is a concern. The coalition worked incredibly well together and Labours lack of vision is the true handbrake on Labour.

    • roy cartland 15.1
      28 September 2021 at 4:24 pm

      I often wonder if there's truth to Chris Trotter's (I think?) theory that Winston serves as a lightning rod for the anti-måori, anti-woke old-fashioned hatred present in so many of his constituency without ever really enacting any of their policies. Immigration continues; te reo is now a cultural juggernaut, ToW claims are being progressed and settled by both Nat and Lab.

      Sure, he's vile and contemptible at times, but being a handbrake is still better than being an active monster like the ACT crowd. He's best in oppo, where he can be as outrageous and entertaining as he likes.

      • Cricklewood 15.1.1
        28 September 2021 at 7:46 pm

        I suspect given the opportunity he'll sit on the cross benches and force everything on an issue by issue basis this time around… he wont go with the Nats and I suspect he's a bit burnt re He Puapua the man does hold a grudge.

      • Nic the NZer 15.1.2
        29 September 2021 at 12:48 pm

        I see it as more universal than particular to some politician. The way to have a long career is to have a significant constituancy for a long time. If you achieve something your constituancy can and will move on to other offerings.

        Much as many would like to claim National are a white nationalist party, they have achieved bugger all in policy about that (usually running massive immigration rates in practice).

        Unfortunately party funders expect a better return on their investment however.

      • Kevin Warburton 15.1.3
        29 September 2021 at 1:19 pm

        Plenty of anti-woke Maori or pro-Maori around. I'm know I'm not the only one. PS society sees me as Pakeha so I hear the racist anti-woke occasionally, but I'm also part-Maori and occasionally hear Maori both left and right espouse anti-woke sentiment.

    • Kat 15.2
      28 September 2021 at 8:06 pm

      "Ardern has been a great leader during covid but she lacks the vision necessary to take advantage of the crisis and rebuild nz better for a post covid world…."

      How do you know she lacks vision, what are you basing this assertion on and just what is your vision of a "post covid world"……??

    • Gezza 15.3
      29 September 2021 at 4:13 am

      coreyjhumm: “Anyway if that sounded angry it’s not I just don’t think nzf is a concern. The coalition worked incredibly well together and Labours lack of vision is the true handbrake on Labour.”
      ………………………………………

      No it doesn’t sound angry, it sounds perfectly logical, rational & clearly explains your reasoning for the views you state. I’m finding It worth paying attention to your comments & reading them carefully. There isn’t anything in your comments above that I disagree with. Peters certainly has performed useful roles in the 2017 government.

      I don’t think Shane Jones did NZF a lot of good. judging by conments on blogs he was widely perceived to have seriously underperformed on the delivery of hood numbers of permanent or long-term jobs thru the Provincial Growth Fund.

      Plus, while he was having a good time being bombastic & flippant, & even I had a larf along with him sometimes, he came across as a buffoon to those witb a sense of humour subordinate to their desire for many more concrete results from the PGF.

      I found it hard to assess how he was regarded by the wider voting public but when chatting to people about him on occasions most seemed to think little of him, or that he was a prat.

  16. bwaghorn 16
    28 September 2021 at 5:13 pm

    The left block better sort out this SNA Land grab bullshit or this non natvoter will have to hold his nose very tight come 2023.

    • Cricklewood 16.1
      28 September 2021 at 7:42 pm

      Its an interesting one that, I have a colleague who is from the Far North from how he tells it his whanau are pretty irate talking about going to the Waitangi tribunal over it… ancestral lands etc etc

    • Gypsy 16.2
      28 September 2021 at 7:51 pm

      Three Waters is going to be a huge problem for them as well.

    • bwaghorn 16.3
      29 September 2021 at 6:30 am

      Had a chat to a farm consultant I used to work with, top man ,has been involved in sustainable farming for 20+ years.

      He thinks it's a dog. There is alot of scattered totara in in the taumarunui area , he says that will be enough for land to be sna'd .

      Just read about a guy who the council tried to sna 200 ha ,that's 1/3 of his farm ..

    • Robert Guyton 16.4
      29 September 2021 at 8:43 am

      How many voters will own land that will attract a SNA?

      Very few votes involved.

  17. peter sim 17
    28 September 2021 at 9:33 pm

    I have to agree with Jim Bolger, The only poll that counts is on election day.

    How many days away is that? The only winners from polls are pollsters.

    They get paid.

    Has anyone done retrospective analyses of poll "findings".

    Have they been published in peer reviewed journals.

  18. Forget now 18
    29 September 2021 at 7:18 pm

    Full CB report is out now:

    https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/22-26-September-2021_1-NEWS-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report_PRELIM.pdf

    Some interesting tidbits that 1news ignored:

    • Vaccination question has changed from personal intention (which was starting to build up a nice trendline) to mandatory vaccination.

    The majority of eligible New Zealand voters (61%) support mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations for those aged 18+ (with the exception of those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons). However, voters are less comfortable with making them mandatory for those aged 12+; 44% support this. One in three voters (35%) are opposed to the idea of mandatory vaccinations for COVID-19, while 4% are unsure.

    • More Green party supporters (77%) & Pacific peoples (66%) want to change the county's official name to either; Aotearoa, or Aotearoa New Zealand, than Māori (58%) or the average population (41%). Just 1% did not express an opinion. Personally I'd go for Aotearoa Zealand, and miss out the "New" entirely.
    • Chlöe Swarbrick has gone from 2% preferred PM in May back to 0.8% (equal to March, but that was still higher than any previous result). Well eclipsing parliamentary co-leaders Marama Davidson (0.3%) & James Shaw (0.1%). It seems an electorate seat does get you mana.
    • Winston Peters has also dropped back to March's result (0.7%) after reaching 1% in May (he hasn't been higher than that since the 2020 election). Shane Jones has got 0.1% (1 person from the 1001 polled), which is at least better than his unbroken string of zeros up to then.
    • The top 5 preferred PM results are:
    1. at 44% Jacinda Ardern
    2. at 21% Don’t know
    3. at 11% David Seymour
    4. at 5% Judith Collins
    5. at 4% None

    As Always:

    The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

    These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

    It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender) will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

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    1 day ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 26

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking about the Royal Commission Inquiry into Abuse in Care report released this week, and with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on a UN push to not recognise carbon offset markets and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 26

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 26, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Transport: Simeon Brown announced $802.9 million in funding for 18 new trains on the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines, which ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Radical law changes needed to build road

    The northern expressway extension from Warkworth to Whangarei is likely to require radical changes to legislation if it is going to be built within the foreseeable future. The Government’s powers to purchase land, the planning process and current restrictions on road tolling are all going to need to be changed ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 day ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2024

    Open access notables Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?, Sippel et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics: Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago
  • First they came for the Māori

    Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    2 days ago
  • Join us for the weekly Hoon on YouTube Live

    Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Will the real PM Luxon please stand up?

    Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    2 days ago
  • Will debt reduction trump abuse in care redress?

    Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Care report in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Olywhites and Time Bandits

    About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Why were the 1930s so hot in North America?

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson Those who’ve trawled social media during heat waves have likely encountered a tidbit frequently used to brush aside human-caused climate change: Many U.S. states and cities had their single hottest temperature on record during the 1930s, setting incredible heat marks ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago
  • Throwback Thursday – Thinking about Expressways

    Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

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