Aussie oi?

Written By: - Date published: 9:37 am, May 19th, 2019 - 122 comments
Categories: australian politics, International - Tags: , , ,

Commiserations to all Australian progressives, not to mention all Australian endangered species and the Great Barrier reef.

I mean WTF just happened?  This was meant to  be a resounding Labor victory after the appalling disunity of the last three years of Liberal disunity.

There were some positives, Tony Abbott losing to a Climate Change activist in the bluest of blue seats being one.

But Queensland was a disaster area with a reported 4% swing against Labor so far and the loss of two seats.  Clive Palmer’s $60 million spend on negative advertising and giving the Libs his second preferences no doubt hurt.

And the other advertising gurilla, the Murdoch Press, also had an effect.  Bill Shorten may be rueing the decision to take Murdoch on.

From Richard Glover in the Washington Post a few days ago::

In the home country of Rupert Murdoch, can a politician attack News Corp. and still win an election? The answer to that question could come as early as Saturday.

In Australia, the opposition Labor Party is poised to seize victory despite a fierce campaign from the Murdoch press. In the past, Labor leaders have tried to broker a truce with Murdoch, the Australian-born mogul whose company owns large chunks of the U.S. media, but also an estimated 59 percent of Australia’s newspapers by market share. Two recent Labor prime ministers — Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd — both visited Murdoch in the United States, presumably bending a knee in the hope of avoiding outright hostility.

Not this time. Bill Shorten, the current Labor leader who looks likely to become prime minister after Saturday’s election, chose not to make the usual overtures.

He may have been emboldened by last year’s election in the state of Victoria, in which local Murdoch newspapers campaigned against a popular Labor premier, Daniel Andrews. Andrews won by an even higher margin than he had previously.

The failure of the Murdoch campaign in Victoria did not prevent a fresh attack on Labor during the current national election campaign. Among the Murdoch headlines in the past few days:

But the most notable “splash” came last week, when Sydney’s Daily Telegraph offered a front-page article alleging that Shorten had overstated the difficulties faced by his mother in realizing her professional dreams.

This particular story was as much a beat up as the Herald’s attack on David Cunliffe for Donghua Liu but it no doubt had a similar effect, sucking momentum at a vital time in the campaign.

Questions will be asked about Labor’s tactics in campaigning on a somewhat radical and detailed manifesto while the Liberals campaigned on a simple slogan.  And promising to address climate change while at the same time proposing significant tax changes provided multiple excuses for quiet tories to become activated.

But maybe leadership was the most important aspect.  Bill Shorten clearly does not inspire the Australian people in the same way that Jacinda Ardern inspires New Zealand.

Polling methods are going to have to be reviewed carefully. Maybe with the decline of fixed telephone lines and replacement sampling techniques that are inadequate we have reached peak polling accuracy and it is now on the decline.

Shorten has stood down as leader. A recent in depth analysis suggested that Penny Wong and Tania Plibersek were the most trusted ALP politicians. I suspect the temptation to promote someone with similar leadership skills to Jacinda will be overwhelming.

122 comments on “Aussie oi?”

  1. Sabine 1

    the people choose differently? 

    • Chris 1.1

      No, they don't.  In times of high voter apathy it's the people who feel they've got the most personally to lose who vote, which tend to be those who care about themselves above others.

      • SHG 1.1.1

        Voting is compulsory in Australia. You don't vote, you get fined.

        • Sam 1.1.1.1

          The Australian Labour Party has still got a 4 in front of its polling with good people in it and Tania Plibersek who's time has come.

          • SHG 1.1.1.1.1

            Plibersek is a strong local member and is beloved of younger educated urban professional Sydney voters. 

            Those voters were just proven to be irrelevant in Australian national politics. If you can't get white Queensland rednecks on side, you lose.

            • Sam 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Thats rediculous. the Australian Labour Party has a proud tradition of braking the White only Australia Policy with Gough Whitlams opening up the Chinese economy, Bob Hawk changing the words in the anthem to All Australians, Paul Keatings land compensation deals, Kevin Rudds apologies, Julia Gillards Royalties for regions and Bill Shortens promise to shut down Offshore detentions. Get it right son.

              • SHG

                Meanwhile in the Australia that actually exists now…

                • Sam

                  The Australia where Scott Morrison is doing the hard policies of handing out tax cuts? Rediculous.  

                  • SHG

                    The Australian electoral rejection of Labor has nothing to do with tax cuts.

                    • Sam

                      It's hardly a rejection. Bill Shorten actually improved Labours Party vote since last time.

                    • SHG

                      a) who gives a fuck about party vote? electorates win Australian elections.

                      b) wrong. 

                      On current count:

                      Labor 2016: 4,702,296 votes, 69 seats
                      Labor 2019: 4,009,110 votes, 65 seats

            • SHG 1.1.1.1.1.2

              Plibersek is a strong local member and is beloved of younger educated urban professional Sydney voters. 

              Those voters were just proven to be irrelevant in Australian national politics. If you can't get white Queensland rednecks on side, you lose.

              Plibersek agrees:

              Plibersek rules herself out of race for Labor leadership

              https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/tanya-plibersek-rules-herself-out-of-race-for-labor-leadership-20190520-p51pb2.html

              • Richard McGrath

                Plibersek must shoulder some of the blame for Labor's catastrophic loss.

        • alwyn 1.1.1.2

          There are very few fines. About the only time is when somebody boasts about not voting and does it very conspicuously.

          If they were to check up on you you simply reply something like "I didn't feel well" and they forget about you. There were about 1.4 million people on the roll who apparently didn't vote in 2016 for the Lower House and a bit less for the Senate.

          https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-2016-voter-turnout-lowest-since-compulsory-voting-began-in-1925-20160808-gqnij2.html

          It is quite difficult to find how many are ever fined. Asking under the OIA there is never answered. The only figures I have seen from an informed Academic who studied the subject says.

          "Professor McAllister said there was no reliable data on how many people are fined each year for failing to vote however he said it was estimated to be about 2000-3000 people per year."

          https://www.sbs.com.au/news/why-does-australia-have-compulsory-voting

          So, although you might get a letter it is very easy to get out of the fine.

           

        • Chris 1.1.1.3

          Sure, but what's your point?  Voter apathy still affects turn out.  It's a $20 fine.

  2. CLEANGREEN 2

    After the crushing defeat of the Australian ‘labor Party’ in yesterday’s election, – now NZ Labour Party now need to take a good look at their own lack of both health/financial policies for young and retirees, (as the lack of support for elders does exist here Salvation Army in NZ has often said) after the crushing election loss by Australia’s ‘labor’ election.

    It was stated in the Australian press today that ‘Labor’ Party defeat in Australia yesterday was because of Labour’s Leader Bill Shorten did not strongly show any financial/health support for retirees like we see NZ First doing here in NZ, and that resonated with voters to push back on ‘Labor’ for this.

    We clearly see now that it is all fine to look after just the marginalised first, but the revolt that happened in Australia showed that the loss of ‘Labor’ support by the retirees was a shark warning sent to Labour Party in NZ to pick up their support for retirees here or loose the next election.

    Last week the NZ Dental association were out lobbying the minister of health to provide cheap or free dental repairs for the elderly because poor diseased gum/teeth health has been identified as causing toxic blood poisoning responsible for the poor health in many elderly patients today they claimed.

    Following the ‘NZ Dental Association’s press release there was a weak response from the Health Minister David Clark “that he will consider the issue”, – so that was very sad for many elderly now and there will probably never be any more heard from David Clark of this again.

    Of all the current NZ political Parties operating in NZ it has been NZ First that has been the only party to hold strong support for retirees health and financial support, so look for a resurgence in support for NZ First after Australian election has showed this is where the Labour Party in NZ has the weakest most volatile weakness.

    National may now give more support to retirees upon seeing the weakness in labour policies to gain ground here.

    NZ First is the political champion for retires health/financial policies as it has been stated that many suicides among the elderly retirees have been contributed to the poor health and financial support policies offered for the retirees today.

    As the salvation Army has stated in the press many times, It is now time to look after our elders, as they are very venerable now as a strong part of life among our whanau, but as we have now often seen cases where many elders lose their homes and are forced to live in substandard living with little food and comfort so we need to take care of all those in our whanau.

    • Sacha 2.1

      Fortunately enough New Zealand retirees care for the wellbeing not only of themselves and their peers but also their children and grandchildren – or Winnie would be in double digits in the polling.

      • CLEANGREEN 2.1.1

        Sasha you show pure crass for the elderly .

        Shame on you for thinking wrongly that all elderly are rich like you eh?

        a majority of the senior citizens are poor, so wake up and dont spin your constant lies.

        • Sacha 2.1.1.1

          Ignoring your jabs, poverty statistics show NZ's universal income support for the over-65s puts them in a stronger position than our young people. The current generation of seniors also tends to reduce their ongoing accommodation costs by owning a freehold home, which future seniors are unlikely to.

        • greywarshark 2.1.1.2

          Who are the elderly though?    There are different classes of elderly.    The 'retired' pensioners need to get together to view dispassionately their situation, and demographics, and look at the different needs for different groups. Greypower may already be doing this I think, or starting.
          Edit:

          As many as possible should be asked to see how they can take up roles in the state helping and mentoring and acting as ginger to put some fizz into the country by those who have mental and physical capacity. And especially giving some help, input to younger people.

          For instance those in a wheelchair can talk and assist with homework classes. I actually met a chap in a wheelchair whose mind was so active that he didn’t want to stop talking. That is one example of how the olders could be helpful to some young people.

          We have been well treated by society – people note the different way they are treated when they get to 65!   But there needs to be a pact with the government and the country, retired people will put something back, even a few hours a week would be good, helping in any area that is regarded as suitable and which interests them.    One guy in Nelson is reading to some classes of young ones, Story Grandpa is his accepted name.  Good for him.    Two-way giving and taking – kindness and practicality needed with this situation.

    • Sabine 2.2

      generally speaking we don't look after anyone who does not look like us. Sadly. 

      but you are right that we in particular don't look after people who are not actively participating in society, our elders and your young ones. It seems the only one that count are those between 25 – 60/65 and then boom, no interest. 

      as for dental care, heck no one can afford dental care in this country and many others. When a clean costs half a week of wages, the pulling of a wisdom tooth costs a thousand + then you don't have health care you have dental practitioners welfare. 

      And i would like to see a report on how the lack of dental care affects our population in terms of Employment, illnesses – type two diabetes and obesity to name two cause no teeth no eating good food which often needs chewing, and how healthy can it be living with an unmanaged infection for years as people do with Gum disease. 

      The issue with Labour is that it offers nothing much other then platitudes and crumbs. And we vote for Crumbs cause its better then the outright hate of the other parties often directed at those that are poor, beneficiaries, and 'other'. 

      no Guts no glory. People don't vote for someone who is wishy washy on mostly everything unless the other option is so odious that you have to vote for wishy washy to get a chance at a re-do. 

       

      and add in a bit of racism and fear of loosing identity and Labour looses. every single time. Maybe its time for Labour to stop asking WTF and start reading the tea leaves. It should be easy, the print is bold. 

      • cleangreen 2.2.1

        That was a slightly better response from you than the first blog so I will agree with some of your response here,

        But sadly a lot of elderly have died since the 2008 Labour era when we under labour then had a cheap dental repair plan for "urgent dental repairs of $35 for one visit.

        Then the elderly could get some help but the cost of dental now is beyond many elderly now so they often die badly.

        • Sabine 2.2.1.1

          no actually my first response was good. 

           

          the population decided. 

          the listened, the read, they were berated, offered shiny objects that no one will explain how to pay for, and essentially voted to not rock the boat. 

           

          Wtf happened? People rejected Labour. Each individually for their own reasons. But all because Labour did not convince them. 

          It happened here in 2014. So really maybe it is time to stop asking WTF and ask Why did we (labour) fuck up again and not manage to convince the electorate. 

          And your reason about the elderly might just be one of the factors. 

          and no civilised nation should have an ‘urgent dental care pack’ we should all have ‘preventive dental car packs’ composed of two annual dental check ups and clean – for pennies available to everyone, as that would save the country billions over the years in other healthcare costs.

          • cleangreen 2.2.1.1.1

            Your last two sentences were acurate, but;

            You are a right winger for sure, and not sharing in our 'commonwealth.' as we did in the 1950/60's and since we went down the tube so;

            So we agree to disaqgree, and you are obviously among the rich set also as no kickback was sent to that eh?.

            • Sabine 2.2.1.1.1.1

               

              You did not like my answer. good enough. but that does not make anyone a right winger or a left winger or fuck all winger. And please count me in the fuck all winger group, cause i really don't want to belong to either side. T

              Someone has to pay for it. someone has to sell the ideas in plain english, someone has to come up with plans that are do-able and sadly, Labour was not it this time, and that is not the fault of the populace who votes, it is the fault of the lawyers and businessmen/women at labour who forgot how to speak plain english.

              Maybe they need to hire some butcher/baker/cabinetmakers rather then employ another lawyer? 

               

              As for being rich? You are right i am. I am able bodied and thus able to work. And that makes me very very rich. And work i will, until the day i drop dead, as there will be nothing left to re-distribute to me or those younger then me when our time comes. Nothing is infinite, and that is something we should keep in mind. 

            • Bewildered 2.2.1.1.1.2

              Sabines a right winger ??????  I am not sure who would be more offended Sabine  or the right 😊

        • greywarshark 2.2.1.3

          And how do you recommend dying cleangreen, so it doesn't turn out badly?   I know there are degrees of comfort but we all have to go.    I am getting tired of people complaining because their 89 year old parent didn't get some magic-carpet treatment.   

          I would like to die in bed after I have a massive heart attack, but damn it would probably just leave me paralysed and having to be spoon fed until my body decided it was time to shut up shop.   

          How to die well should be a workshop you can go to that people from hospice, and managers of entities involved with the dying and very old should be allowed to speak to between the hour of say 10 and 11, and then they can go away and people could speak freely, and some might then  leave also  if they can't stand actually talking about having freedom to decide.   

          Then people might like to decide on a template of things they would like considered.     Then have a cup of tea or coffee, something to eat, looking after body and mind and then further discussion and summarising.  There could be much happiness and solidarity at such a meeting with like minds, and the model plan being something to take with them to amend as wished.

    • Paul Campbell 2.3

      losing by 1-2% is not a 'crushing defeat' (of course not having MMP and true proportional representation does magnify the result)

  3. Surprised 3

    Australia has made the right choice.  Mr Shorten is finally gone forever!

    • bewildered 3.1

      As with Angry the day of labour or centre  left parties putting up Union bother  boys and hacks as leaders is over 

  4. Ad 4

    The left in power is shrinking worldwide.

    Those still going must shift tactically and in policy focus.

    There's a good chance we'll be the only ones in power very soon.

    • Rae 4.1

      Quite frankly, I believe the shift around the world will lead to conflict, everyone is getting all patriotic and bristly with each other.

  5. Dennis Frank 5

    Shorten could recycle Bolger's line (`bugger the pollsters') but complacency is only a part of the explanation.  You have to look at the weather-vane part of the electorate.  Those who show up as undecided in polls.  Obviously they looked at Labour's campaign and saw no reason to vote for them.

    "Shorten clearly does not inspire the Australian people in the same way that Jacinda Ardern inspires New Zealand."  Correct.  Charisma of the leader is the x factor.  However a zeitgeist for change is often decisive in herding non-aligned voters, and climate-change clearly failed to manifest in that way.  I'll leave to others to inform us of the extent Labour tried to be the vehicle for expresssion of the zeitgeist.  Reading Labour policies has always affected me similarly to the prospect of having to eat a bowl of cold porridge.

  6. Morrissey 6

    Morrison is a coward, a lout, and a scoundrel….

    https://morrisseybreen.blogspot.com/2018/11/three-thoughtful-kiwi-commentatorswell.html

    Mind you, Labor's previous prime ministers were not really any better….

    https://morrisseybreen.blogspot.com/2019/02/julian-assange-confronts-julia-gillard.html

    • Tuppence Shrewsbury 6.1

      Your commentary is limited to calling people names and transcribing other media sources. Your like a pedantic version of Ed. Instead of spamming links, you copy them out to your own blog then spam them. That you selectively cull the transcription to paint a narrative doesn’t make you and editor. It makes you dishonest. Pedantically dishonest

      • Drowsy M. Kram 6.1.1

        "Your You're like a pedantic version…smiley

      • Morrissey 6.1.2

        Your commentary is limited to calling people names and transcribing other media sources.

        Ooooh, I think even my harshest critics would agree that my commentary is far more than calling names and a bit of transcription. Methinks you protest a tad too vehemently, my friend—with a resultant diminution of your credibility.

        Your [sic] like a pedantic version of Ed.

        No way! NO ONE is more pedantic than Ed. This writer, i.e., moi, is perhaps more antic than pedantic.

        Instead of spamming links, you copy them out to your own blog then spam them.

        Yes, that's kind of what I do, but again, you're over-simplifying.

        That you selectively cull the transcription to paint a narrative doesn’t make you and [sic] editor. It makes you dishonest. Pedantically dishonest

        Got it! This writer is "pedantically dishonest." (Yikes! That sounds ominous.)sad 

  7. tc 7

    Massive blunder taking on Murdoch. That arrogance, a total lack of charisma and credit where it's due to scomo.

    He played a blinder appealing to good old Ossie values.

    • Gabby 7.1

      The blunder was not going for broke on it teecee. Billy didn't have the guts to call out the lying shitbags.

  8. Timeforacupoftea 8

    Democracy always wins angry

    Shorten gives politics away.

    Probably an exodus from Labor like the exodus we had from National here after these results.

    • Anne 8.1

      Democracy loses every time when elections are based on lies and fake news . See Trump America.

      • bewildered 8.1.1

        Is that violins I hear Ann and cleangreen Suck it up pumpkins, the people listened, digested, filtered the bs and made a choice Your suggestion otherwise is simply sour grapes 

        • vto 8.1.1.1

          bewildered "…the people listened, digested, filtered the bs and made a choice…"

          The people listened?? Really? To what?

          Digested?? Really? Digested what?

          Filtered the bs?? Are you for real?

          And made a choice –  yea they did, and that is the only correct thing in your sentence, but without the rest it is bs itself.

        • Incognito 8.1.1.2

          Yup, a whole orchestra of violin players all called Nero. Is that smoke I smell?

        • Gabby 8.1.1.3

          Bullshit beewee, the people got taken for suckers by a pack of lying shitbags.

        • Anne 8.1.1.4

          Apt pseudonym you have there.

    • cleangreen 8.2

      timeforacupoftea

      Crap there;

      Democracy is only alive when we have a healthy independant media, – but we dont today so we will take your deluded point out about us living with ‘democracy’ with the rubbbish.

    • Richard McGrath 8.3

      Shorten's departure will help Labor. Just a horrible man.

  9. millsy 9

    Morrison and company looks like they will be in for a very long time. Tony Abbott, which means the PM won't be undermined from the back benches, and this lot will be unified in a way we have not seen for years.

     

    • Dukeofurl 9.1

      Not so. They dont seem to have a majority and have to rely on independents. the Senate will be the same.

      They had  a big spending  pre-election campaign.  The budget was presented and then adjourned for the election. Now it has to be passed?

       

      They will be in government but not in 'power'

  10. Anne 10

    Umm… I think you mean Penny Wong – not Pansy Wong – mickysavage, 😉

    [Fark right you are. I will correct – MS]

  11. Ad 11

    Brexit, Trump, Bolsonaro, most European states, nearly France, now Australia, and the EU elections coming in weeks.

     

    The hard right is in full rise across the developed world 

    We should be a nation that advertises leftie policy successes, because we are one of the last.

  12. cleangreen 12

    'Labor' Party in Australia lost because of a bad ‘corporate controlled’ media of the 'murderist Murdoch empire'

    Secondly Shorten of Labor never tried to win over the retirees. 

    Winston Peters knows best how to do this.

    'Labor' party in Australia are slow learners.

    • Sacha 12.1

      Unless you have access to supportive exit polling, this theory seems to tell us more about you than about the election.

      • cleangreen 12.1.1

        Sasha  About exit polls.

        The exit polls were wrong even to the last one done early just before the close of the voting last night .

        That put Labor at winning 52 seats to Liberals winning only 48 seats.

        Polls got it so so so so very wrong——

        So your blind belief that these polls are accurate are a false belief.

        • Sacha 12.1.1.1

          Polling of voting reasons is useful. In the absence of that, what do you base your claim on that the welfare of retirees was the deciding factor in the result?

          • cleangreen 12.1.1.1.1

            Sasha

             

            I watched the whole thing on Sky channel's election centre Panel at 7pm last night was then trying to make sence of the early returns coming in and wouund up after an hour saying that the exit pollls were useless and so screwed up.

            So they were tracked and we think that they are now unreliable. 

            • Sam 12.1.1.1.1.1

              Wasn't the polls that was the problem for the left. The polls have been pretty good for the left globally. The problem is the left itself and our relationship with Neoliberism. 

        • Dukeofurl 12.1.1.2

          The problem with polls like that is that they are 'nationwide' when  UK and Australia are won  by seats  ( and lesser extent in US by states)

          The polls work for NZ because MMP is a party  vote  which is nationwide

           

          An election poll commentator wrote a few days before  election day that   he though all the results were 'herding' when the results should  have a bigger  spread . 

          https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-05-09T08:04:00%2B10:00&max-results=7

          "The probability of 13 polls in a row at 48 or 49 per cent is 0.000059"

           

          "I am not sure what is behind the narrow similarity of the most recent polls. I think pure chance is unlikely. I would like to think it is some sound mathematical practice (for example, using a panel, or some data analytics applied to a statistical estimate). But I cannot help wondering whether it reflects herding or pollster self-censorship. Or whether there is some other factor at work. I just don't know. And I remain troubled.

          A systemic problem with the polls, depending on what it is, may point to a heightened possibility of an unexpected election result (in either direction).

    • bewildered 12.2

      Hey CG the ABC is not exactly a right wing fan boy of the right Just accept not every body has your world  view and are able to think just as critically as you believe you do when they vote 

    • Richard McGrath 12.3

      And Shorten is simply unlikeable.

  13. Grantoc 13

    Mickey

    You ignore one of the most obvious and one of the age old principals of elections in western democracies. – don't threaten the hip pocket of ordinary voters. Labour was attacked on this issue and failed to combat it. Especially in Queensland.

    • millsy 13.1

      Because the coalition is no real threat to the hip pocket of voters.

      Attacks on the trade union movement, bordering on human right violations

      Cuts to penalty rates

      Tax cuts for the rich, and shit services for everyone else

      These will all tell you different

      Also, the Coaltion will keep importing migrant workers who will work at a lower rate than most Australians, thus pushing wages further down.

       

      • bewildered 13.1.1

        Well how shit are labour if they can’t beat those policy in a contest of ideas 

  14. Ankerrawshark 14

    My thoughts are that there is someone very clever in nz labour (suspect it is grant and Jacinda combo, with maybe some imput from Parker) who are working out what Nationals attack lines will be at the next election, and pulling the rug out, so National has nowhere to go.  Witness, dropping the target for kiwi build, dropping the cgt entirely and saying not under Jacindas watch and now possibly the free fees policy.   I can’t believe it but I am now grateful for them dropping the cgt.  There are others ways to fix housing and inequality.  

    National nearly won in 2017 because of Joyce scaring the public with the spend bit of tax and spend.  Polls went down for labour when attacked by English over cgt.

    we have to stay in power to get small gains.  The alternative is revolution.  This is just my opinion.  I know others will disagree

    • cleangreen 14.1

      I will agree with you A.

      But Labour must go to the election in full support of the elderly this election as NZ First will do so as they say, " It you fail to care for your elderly then you dont have a society"

      • bewildered 14.1.1

        Vote with your own hip pocket and self interest eh CG, how unique 

      • ankerawshark 14.1.2

        Hi cleangreen,  Its been a little surprizing form me that so many on this thread have agreed with me.  I wasn't expecting that and it would have been o.k if people hadn't.

        What more would you like done for the elderly?  What's missing?  I am aware of people over 65 you can't work (shouldn't have to really its retirement age) and don't own their own home.  these people seem to be really in trouble.  I guess there is a lot of talk about us boomers who have set it up very nicely for ourselves thank you very much. Certainly there are those types, but I think this over looks others struggling.

        Anyone relying on a benefit is in trouble in the country I think.

        Owning a home brings such dignity and also financial security.  It is nearly always possible to down size.  

         

    • Anne 14.2

      I don't disagree. You're spot on Ankerrawshark. Those who habitually moan at this government for not going far enough are not facing reality imo. I'd much rather they retained the treasury benches even though it means their goals have to wait longer to be achieved.

      • JanM 14.2.1

        Absolutely – very sensible approach I think. There's no point in going hell for leather and only lasting one term. National was very clever at undermining our society thus and few people even now realise what a mess there is to clean up, probably.

        • greywarshark 14.2.1.1

          It's easy to get impatient with Labour Coalition.   But nine years of a lying lax bunch of Nationals exporting treasures of 'fossilised' wood, playing at business and undercutting firms and forcing standards down etc.    The list would probably be as long as Blips that showed up Key.

          I agree that we need to count to 10 and have a nice health drink rather than a cup of tea, before we comment sharply on what isn't happening politically.   But we do have to keep watching, keep informed, stay strong, keep healthy, and alert and ready for Stage 2.   

    • Grantoc 14.3

      Anker…..

      Your thoughts make sense. I agree that Jacinda probably dropped CGT for the reasons that you state; and in doing so increasing Labour's chances of retaining power. I suspect the polls were turning against Labour on this issue prior to her decision.

      The other major issue that she'll need to address is how to keep the public onside on climate change matters. Seems like this was a major negative for Australian Labour in most parts of the electorate apart from wealthy liberal/green inner city electorates (ala Wgtn Central). I was struck by the reaction of voters in North Queensland where a major new mine and its associated jobs appeared to be under threat from Labour. There are potentially some parallels with Green Conservation Minister Sage's unilateral decision concerning the Waihi gold mine. This suggests that the Labour led coalition can kiss goodbye to voter support in that area/electorate and others where similar matters are at the forefront..

      • millsy 14.3.1

        So you want Waihi groundwater to be polluted then.

        I tell you what, this country has terrain that everyone would give their right arm to have in their country, and people like you want to be all dug up.

         

         

        • Grantoc 14.3.1.1

          M

          If you bothered to read my post you would understand that I expressed no personal opinion on these policies.

          My post reflects my observations on the effects that the policy positions that political parties in NZ and Australia have on their electorates.

          You have no idea of what you're talking about.

           

    • cleangreen 14.4

      Ankerrawshark.

      Yes – again Labour need to be very aware that National has already begun their "attack lines" and what they will be begoining with the formation of yet another Christian Party of Alfred Ngaro.

      As Barry Soper put it here; 

      https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/05/a_christian_party.html

      "The coalition lifeline that National will need if it’s to have a chance at the next election looks set to come in the form of a Christian party led by one of its own, former Cabinet Minister Alfred Ngaro. Talk within the party’s been rife for weeks now with Ngaro’s plan being well received and with the possibility of National standing aside, possibly in the Botany seat, where it has the strongest party vote by far."

    • mary_a 14.5

      Ankerrawshark (14) Big thumbs up from me smiley 

  15. MickeyBoyle 15

    How could all those woke people on Twitter be so wrong? Surely their views are shared by the majority of Australians?. Seriously though, the left in general need to start waking up to the reality that serious climate change policy is unpalatable, people do not want more woke PC bullshit and that Australians in general put energy security over pollution. Its terribly sad for those of us who realise that following this path will lead to our extinction or at the very least significantly impede our children's lives, but it is clearly not palatable for Joe average public. We were extremely lucky to win here in 2017, Hillary got Trumped and now this. Throughout the world the right is rising. We need to wake up, stop pushing policies that although are morally right, lose us elections. We cannot make the changes that need to be made from the opposition benches.

    • Dukeofurl 15.1

      Have you read the Coalition Pre  election climate policy?

       

      'The Coalition has committed Australia to reduce its emissions by 26 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, in line with the Paris targets.’

      yes they have some short term  fudges which will cost them next election, and they
      need support of independents who hold balance of power wont allow some of the  biggest fudges to occur

    • Sacha 15.2

      “We cannot make the changes that need to be made from the opposition benches.”

      The needed changes, however, require engaging the public on them – preferably between elections rather than at them, I guess.

    • millsy 15.3

      High energy prices and insecurity are due to privatisation and deregulation. NOT environmental policies.

    • Gabby 15.4

      Woke's a cuck word isn't it StickeyBoyle.

  16. One Two 16

    Despite the most cynically negative of campaigns by all main parties, rock bottom has not yet been achieved in Australian politics…

    Polling booths have full campaign promotional materials in place on voting day, there.

  17. swordfish 17

    Several Labor figures said the party would need to conduct a significant review of the election result because, as one put it, “at the moment we haven’t got a fucking clue”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/australian-election-queensland-labor-hopes

      • cleangreen 17.1.1

        Swordfish.

        I agree there,

        Looking at the Australian voting system seems so complicated, as most may be wrongly marking the voting paper boxes during the 'preference' of candidates.

        There are a multitude of candidates to chooese from and maybe (logically) they probably are not so familiar with them at all. 

        Lots of opportunity to get things wrong there.

    • Dennis Frank 17.2

      I suspect they haven't employed a marketing consultant.  Focus groups are a blunt instrument, eh?  Assuming the microcosm reflects the macrocosm only works if statistics is applied with rigor.  I get that Labour are reluctant to differ from the Liberals too much, but voters are like consumers, who buy on the basis of brand differentiation.  It hasn't been made clear why the Labour offering is better.  😴

  18. swordfish 18

    State by State (from ABC … but regularly updated … so figures may move somewhat over next few hours)

     

    NSW ………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition ……. 42.6% ……….. + 0.3  ……………. 21 ……………… – 1

    Labor …………. 35.0% ………. – 2.0 ………………. 23 ………………. 0

    Greens …………. 8.4% ………. – 0.6 ………………… 0 ………………. 0

    UAP ………………  3.3%  …….. + 3.3 ………………… 0 ………………. 0

    One Nation ……. 1.3% ……… + 0.7 ………………… 0 ………………. 0

    Others …………… 9.5% ……… – 0.8 …………………. 1 …………….. + 1

     

    Vic …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition …….. 38.6% ………. – 3.2  ……………. 14 ……………… 0

    Labor ………….. 37.4% ……… + 1.8 …………….. 21 ……………… 0

    Greens ………… 11.3% ………. – 1.8 ……………… 1 ………………. 0

    UAP ………………  3.6%  ………. + 3.6 …………….. 0 ………………. 0

    One Nation ……. 1.0% ……….. + 1.0 ……………… 0 ……………… 0

    Others …………… 8.1% ………… – 0.3 ………………. 1 ……………… 0

     

    QLD …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition ……… 43.2% …………… 0  ……………… 23 ……………… + 2

    Labor …………… 27.4% ……….  – 3.5 ………………. 5 ………………. – 2

    Greens …………. 10.2% ……….. + 1.4 ……………… 0 …………………. 0

    UAP ………………  3.5%  ………… + 3.5 ……………… 0 …………………. 0

    One Nation ……. 8.7% …………. + 3.2 ……………… 0 ………………… 0

    Others …………… 6.9% …………. – 3.2 ……………….. 1 ……………….. 0

     

    WA …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition …….. 45.2% ……….. – 3.5  ……………. 11 ……………… 0

    Labor ………….. 30.6% ………  – 1.9 ……………… 5 ……………….. 0

    Greens ………… 11.4% ………. – 0.7 ……………… 0 ……………….. 0

    UAP ………………  1.9%  ………. + 1.9 ……………… 0 ………………. 0

    One Nation ……. 5.1% ……….. + 5.1 ……………… 0 ………………. 0

    Others …………… 5.8% ………… – 0.4 ………………. 0 ……………… 0

     

    SA …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition ……. 40.5% ……….. + 5.4  ……………. 3 ……………… 0

    Labor …………. 36.0% ………   + 4.5 ……………… 5 ……………… 0

    Greens …………. 9.5% ………..  + 3.3 ……………… 0 ………………. 0

    UAP ……………..  4.2%  ……….. + 4.2 ……………… 0 ………………. 0

    One Nation …… 0.7% ……….. + 0.7 ………………. 0 ………………. 0

    Others …………… 9.1% ………. – 18.1 ……………….. 1 ……………… 0

     

    TAS …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition ……… 34.5% ……….. – 1.0  …………… 2 ……………… + 2

    Labor ………….. 34.0% ………   – 3.9 …………….. 2 ……………… – 2

    Greens ………… 10.0% ………..  – 0.2 ……………. 0 ……………….. 0

    UAP ………………  4.8%  ……….. + 4.8 …………….. 0 ………………. 0

    One Nation ……. 2.7% ………… + 2.7 …………….. 0 ………………. 0

    Others ………….. 14.0% …….. .. + 2.8 ……………… 1 ……………… 0

     

    ACT …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition ……. 31.1% ……….. – 3.4  ………………. 0 ……………… 0

    Labor …………. 41.6% ……….   – 2.7 ……………… 3 ……………… 0

    Greens ………… 16.6% ……….  + 1.5 ……………… 0 ……………… 0

    UAP ……………..  2.6%  ………. + 2.6 ……………….. 0 ……………… 0

    One Nation ……. 0% …………….. 0 …………………. 0 ………………. 0

    Others ………….. 8.1% …….. .. + 6.2 …………………. 0 ……………… 0

     

    NT …………….Vote % … 1st Pref Swing … Seats Won … Seats Changed

    Coalition ……. 38.8% ……….. + 5.6  ……………. 0 ……………… 0

    Labor …………. 41.2% ………   + 0.8 ……………… 2 ……………… 0

    Greens ………… 10.3% ……….  + 1.2 ……………… 0 ………………. 0

    UAP ……………..  2.7%  ………. + 2.7 ……………….. 0 ………………. 0

    One Nation …….. 0% ……………. 0 …………………. 0 ………………. 0

    Others ………….. 7.0% …….. .. – 11.1 ………………. 0 ……………… 0

     

     

     

  19. Exkiwiforces 19

    Sacha @ 18.1 it may look like a shitty electoral, but it is counted by the Senate and that has somewhat neuter the more lofty/ extreme ideological views of the Government in the House Reps over the yrs. God only knows what would’ve happened if old Johnny Howard or the Mad Monk had a more favourable senate towards the Lib/Nat Government at the time.

    Yeah we might not a lot of green seats, but we about 5 independents (minus old Bob Katter who would go over to Government side and his support won’t come cheap either) that could also act as a roadblock for the Government in the House of Reps.

    • Sacha 19.1

      Would the Greens be better off campaigning for Senate?

      • Exkiwiforces 19.1.1

        The Greens use to have a number of seats in Senate under Bob Brown and they came very close to hold the balance of power. But since Bob retired and that silly women who replaced Bob, and who did untold damage to the Greens in the Senate they have never been the same especially after the Gillard led Labour Government. The Greens seem to do alright when Labour is in Government, but with advent of the rise of the independnet's and minor party's are now hold the balance of power in the Senate. 

        Looking at current trends within the Senate atm and past history of Greens in the Senate. I think they would be wise to campaign in the Senate rather than in the House of Reps where they are more likely to take votes off Labour and left lending independnets. They always talk up a big game during for the House Reps during a Fed election, but do poorly in the end.

        To me the Senate holds all the cards than the House Reps if you a minor player and there are plenty of examples of that weather its left or right.

         

        • Sacha 19.1.1.1

          "They always talk up a big game during for the House Reps during a Fed election, but do poorly in the end"

          When their electoral system translates up to 10% vote into zero seats, then yes.

          • Exkiwiforces 19.1.1.1.1

            The problem with the Oz Greens is they tend to reply on internal and external polling to much and then carry on like a fat kid in a candy shop, but then get hit with a couple of flash bangs and along with mouthful of tear gas which suddenly brings them back to earth on polling day. 

            The electoral system over here doesn't help there cause outside of the main cities as well. They really need to explain their policy's alot  better in regional and in the bush instead of telling people in a forceful manner what they should be doing aka the recent Bob Brown convoy though the Qld coal belt. There is a huge misstep/ between the urban Greens/ left and those out in the bush or regional area atm by trying to explain policy's and not trying to force it down their throats approach will help alot better in the long run.

          • Richard McGrath 19.1.1.1.2

            Isn't Adam Bandt the (Green) MP for Melbourne?

  20. Exkiwiforces 20

    Dennis Frank @18.2- There is no One Nation presence in the NT in either electorate in both Federal and NT elections

  21. swordfish 21

    • Richard McGrath 21.1

      Three years of stable government will have the Liberals re-elected next time around too. 

  22. Exkiwiforces 22

    Here’s an interesting article from the ABC about Labour defeat in Qld and the role the Red Head and Clive the Pie eater at send their preferences towards the LNP in Qld..

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/how-labor-lost-queensland-and-gifted-the-coalition-a-third-term/11122998

     

  23. adam 23

    Shit lite lost. 

    Bloody we deserved. 

    Shorten was so far right it is frightening, at least the Aussies voted right, rather than the far right loonies ruling the ALP.

     

  24. Rae 24

    The politics of stupid seems to be rather prevalent these days, the politics of climate science denial, the politics of division and quite frankly, the politics of soft white supremacy.

    I reckon we are not far from another big war.

    • Wensleydale 24.1

      John Bolton's working on it as we speak.

    • fustercluck 24.2

      "Climate Science Denial"

      Can you point to a single climate model that has proven correct?

    • mike 24.3

      i think the property owning class dont want the ponzi scam to end they simple cant afford change or there screwed  despite the fact there screwed who ever is in power australian property crash is well under way

    • Richard McGrath 24.4

      Global warming is still an hypothesis, not a theorem. It is perfectly reasonable to be sceptical to some degree.  

      • Michael 24.4.1

        Isn't that what Nero said while playing his fiddle as Rome burned around him?

    • Anne 24.5

      I reckon you are right on the money Rae. One does not need to look any further than Trump's America to see that war looming.  The Aussies have long said "where America goes we go". I hope NZ turns its back on both of them.

  25. Richard McGrath 25

    Shorten struck me as a particularly unpleasant individual, and I think this image adversely affected his party's vote. Albanese is far more appealing.    

    • Anne 25.1

      What a thoroughly stupid comment. Stop making up crap. His politics isn't to your Alt right-wing taste but he exhibits nothing unpleasant.

      The same couldn't be…………………..

  26. Michael 26

    I've figured out the reason for the ALP's loss: Clare Curran was present in its campaign headquarters on election day as the NZLP's official representative. QED.

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