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END GAME

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 pm, November 24th, 2024 - 30 comments

What is the game plan for the Coalition government? What characteristics can we observe and what is the “end game?”

Do the EU elections matter in Britain?

Written By: - Date published: 9:03 am, June 16th, 2024 - 15 comments

Last weekend the EU elections saw a significant increase in support for the populist/alt-right in European elections.
I deliberately avoid using the term far-right. It would be too simplistic and inaccurate to paint a picture of Europe re-living the 1930s and entering fascism. It is not.

UK General Election – the mood on the doorstep

Written By: - Date published: 10:04 pm, June 10th, 2024 - 12 comments

The UK still has the First Past the Post Electoral system. Something New Zealand should have absolutely no nostalgia for. This means that, while the campaign is UK-wide, a lot of campaign activity is directed into constituencies that are deemed marginal. In marginal constituencies, a General Election brings a conveyor belt of the good and the great supporting their prospective parliamentary candidate. In “safe seats” voters get much less attention.

British politics – hurry up and wait for a general election

Written By: - Date published: 4:58 am, May 21st, 2024 - 16 comments

While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed.

Underrepresented London

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, May 2nd, 2024 - 2 comments

Greenwich Park - London

According to Zoopla, the average monthly rent in London as of April 2024 is £2,121. Council tax, internet, water and energy bills are usually on top of this and have increased significantly in the last two years. The average monthly income after tax is £2,902.50. This means most renters spend well over 2/3 of their income on rent and utility bills, with other costs like train fares and groceries many are left with very little disposable income each month.

Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and Scottish Independence.

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, February 16th, 2023 - 56 comments

While Sturgeon’s strong leadership and vision have helped build support for Scottish Independence, the Conservative and Unionist Party’s arrogance and self-serving incompetence in government have greatly aided her in this.

UK Labour – can they finally beat the Tories?

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, January 30th, 2023 - 18 comments

The left in the UK needs to accept they alone do not have majority support and need to work with what they term the “soft left” and more centrist factions to win. The current Labour leadership need to ensure that the left still has a stake in Labour winning, and give enough to motivate the left to vote and campaign for Labour. Look at the lessons learnt by the US Democrats.

Can Rishi Sunak save the Conservative Government?

Written By: - Date published: 12:26 am, January 27th, 2023 - 5 comments

Despite everything that has happened, it would be a serious mistake to underestimate the British Conservative Party which has proven time and again to be an electoral force to be reckoned with. In England, where over 80% of British voters live, Tory is the default option in many parts of the country. The polarisation within Britain is high with tensions from the Brexit debate and ongoing calls for Scottish Independence still simmering. The Tories can certainly play these divisions to their advantage in the hope of winning support

The curious case of Liz Truss

Written By: - Date published: 6:57 am, January 17th, 2023 - 34 comments

The Daily Fail on the Truss mini-budget

The truth is, the throwing caution to the wind approach of slashing taxes, removing restrictions on banker bonuses, and slashing other regulations such as IR35 were all consistent with what he and Truss had argued in Britannia Unchained a decade earlier. And these ideas found favour with the Conservative Party membership – with the idealised view of Thatcher’s vision of small government, deregulation and low taxation. For the general public, this was not so much ‘Britannia Unchained’ as ‘Libertarians Unhinged.

Boris Johnson – why he fell and can he come back?

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, January 15th, 2023 - 1 comment

It is risky to make predictions, but it is safe to assume we have not heard the last of Boris Johnson. And much like Berlusconi in Italy, the results will undoubtedly be bad both for politics and the country.

The Occupy Movement and the response to the 2008 financial crisis

Written By: - Date published: 1:39 am, January 14th, 2023 - 4 comments

We are the 99%

As the world currently goes through a post-pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine fuelled economic crisis, it is interesting to reflect on the economic crisis of over a decade ago and how the public responded at that time.

The end of the post war boom

Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, January 11th, 2023 - 87 comments

Tendancy for the rate of profit to fall

Throughout my time being active in politics, people have discussed the rise of Neo-Liberalism and the free market that occurred throughout much of the world from the late 1970s onwards. Yet few seem to really understand the reasons for this significant shift in economic policy at that time, which continues to shape our society today.

How Brexit Shanked Britain

Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, October 17th, 2022 - 23 comments

The political and economic disasters now unfolding in Britain are the responsibility of the Conservative Party from their 2016 Brexit vote through to now.

How is Boris Johnson still in Number 10?

Written By: - Date published: 2:18 am, February 21st, 2022 - 10 comments

Johnson and Cummings

 

Boris Johnson, should not on balance still be Prime Minister and in the long term, the Conservatives risk being severely punished for not removing him. But despite everything, he remains in post and still, we cannot write him off.

British identity and The Second World War

Written By: - Date published: 2:53 am, November 27th, 2021 - 1 comment

With regards to Johnson’s own leadership to date, his government’s apparent support of herd immunity as the response to COVID-19 in early 2020 had much more in common with Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy in the 1930s than the Battle of Britain.

What the recent elections tell us about British society

Written By: - Date published: 11:31 pm, May 17th, 2021 - 35 comments

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s Blog In a nation that has suffered over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, one may be somewhat taken aback to see the latest YouGov Poll where The Conservative Party enjoy a 15% lead over the Labour Opposition. 17 months after the Conservatives won the 2019 General Election, it would be easy to […]

Boris wants more bombs

Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, March 19th, 2021 - 50 comments

Boris Johnson has announced that the United Kingdom will increase its stockpile of nuclear weapons and open up the possibility of using weapons against non nuclear nations, despite being a signatory to various treaties that prohibit both actions being taken.

Brexit revisited

Written By: - Date published: 7:19 am, December 13th, 2020 - 19 comments

With Brexit looming there is talk of unfinished customs software and the possibility of chaos around ports, the UK’s food supply being compromised, and potential skirmishes with France at fishing spots.  And Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are refusing to talk to Boris Johnson.  Hang on England, this is going to get wild.

This result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom

Written By: - Date published: 8:11 am, February 10th, 2020 - 13 comments

Originally posted onNick Kelly’s blog

Nick is a Director of Piko Consulting and works as a Political Adviser in The House of Lords. 

Listening to the results being reported while driving on that California freeway, I recall thinking ‘this result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom’. On hearing that both Northern Ireland and Scotland had voted to stay part of the EU, in contrast to the rest of the country, it was hard to imagine that this would not become a significant issue.

Why UK Labour lost? Part 9: What the party needs to do now.

Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, January 17th, 2020 - 12 comments

Originally post on Nick Kelly’s blog

The broader context of this defeat is that over the last century, UK Labour has won 8 out of the last 28 general elections. Overall the Labour Party is not a successful electoral force in the UK. What makes the 2019 loss harder, is that the party lost sections of its historical base in the North of England and the Midlands.

Why UK Labour lost? Part 6: New Labour & Blairism

Written By: - Date published: 10:39 am, January 15th, 2020 - 10 comments

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog

Fact is that the world has moved on from the 1980s and 90s. Politics certainly has. The types of 3rd way or centre/centre right positions that Blair and Campbell think will win just won’t anymore.

Why UK Labour lost? Part 4: Ooooh Jeremy Corbyn

Written By: - Date published: 3:13 am, January 14th, 2020 - 12 comments

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog

Why UK Labour lost? Part 3: Its Brexit innit

Written By: - Date published: 6:14 am, January 13th, 2020 - 28 comments

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog

Why the Tories won the UK election?

Written By: - Date published: 2:29 am, December 30th, 2019 - 9 comments

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog 

Listening to left wing dissent

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, December 16th, 2019 - 178 comments

What stands out for me are the voices of the people who are saying actually, there were solid reasons for abandoning Labour, this is why I did. There’s something important here about really listening to dissent and being willing to engage with views that don’t make sense in the context of our own personal ideologies.

Brexit – sorry its not getting done anytime soon.

Written By: - Date published: 11:23 am, December 12th, 2019 - 5 comments

Can the Conservatives get brexit done by January 31st as they are promising in the election? The short answer is no. The slogan is catchy, and taps into public sentiment. But it is also pure unadulterated bullshit. If the Conservatives do form the next government these words will haunt them, especially Boris Johnson.

The Missing Millions

Written By: - Date published: 11:18 am, December 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Millions of people and an entire region of the UK left out of polling calculations….

Bouganville and Brexit

Written By: - Date published: 8:19 am, December 12th, 2019 - 2 comments

The island of Bouganville has just had a vote towards independence from Papua New Guinea.  The result has interesting similarities with the Brexit vote.

The NHS and privatisation

Written By: - Date published: 12:14 pm, December 10th, 2019 - 18 comments

The NHS is well loved by the British public. It is seen as something which makes British society decent and civilised. That the NHS is now stretched and badly underfunded is seen as a national outrage. Fears of even further privatisation of the NHS due to a US trade deal has unsurprisingly made the NHS the number one election issue.

Northern Ireland’s precarious peace

Written By: - Date published: 12:37 pm, December 9th, 2019 - Comments Off on Northern Ireland’s precarious peace

On Friday, UK leader of the opposition revealed a leaked Treasury Paper which undermines the Prime Ministers claims that there will be no checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. My earlier post on each of the party’s Brexit positions pointed out how critical Northern Ireland has been in the Brexit debate.

Scotland – does independence loom?

Written By: - Date published: 9:56 am, December 6th, 2019 - 14 comments

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog Scotland matters in the 2019 UK general election. Yet much of the electorate have little understanding of the place, it’s politics or what could happen after the December 12 election. Scotland could well decide the outcome of the 2019 UK Election. It did in 2017. At the last election fierce […]