- Date published:
6:06 pm, September 14th, 2017 - 193 comments
Categories: election 2017, polls - Tags: #ChangeTheGovt, colmar brunton, let's do this, poll
New 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains four point lead over National, could govern with Greens. https://t.co/PyPtkIqsT1 pic.twitter.com/AgQ0HVNHAP
— 1 NEWS – Breaking (@1NEWSBreaking) September 14, 2017
1 News Colmar Brunton poll (1/3): LAB 44% (+1), NAT 40% (+1), GRN 7% (+2), NZF 6% (-3), TOP 2% (NC), MAO 1% (-1), ACT 0.6% #nzpol
— Colmar Brunton (@ColmarBruntonNZ) September 14, 2017
Seats assuming electorates for Māori & Act, but not TOP:
Greens: 9 https://t.co/AOd3k78g1h
— Felix Geiringer (@BarristerNZ) September 14, 2017
Latest poll: Labour + Greens have the numbers https://t.co/NgsGimXq8r
— RNZ News (@rnz_news) September 14, 2017
Another election loser or casualty tonight.
— Duncan Garner (@DuncanGarnerNZ) September 14, 2017
New poll could spell good news for the left https://t.co/bg1RCVjLjh pic.twitter.com/mQG7wVkCJd
— nzherald (@nzherald) September 14, 2017
NZ First at 6 in both TVNZ and Newshub polls is key.
— Tim Murphy (@tmurphyNZ) September 14, 2017
Jacinda Ardern 'not willing to accept poll numbers' despite four point lead over National. https://t.co/6XfPXRQf9B pic.twitter.com/btX2fIa0rx
— 1 NEWS (@1NewsNZ) September 14, 2017
thank god – back in the race
We were never out. In fact, we held our lead, despite the efforts of the race-caller:
“ and coming into the final turn it’s Labour and The Greens by a country mile!
I was worried about my tory neighbours race call “Lefties are out of the gate well-opps, they have now stumbled and fell.
Keep an eye on the trend:
So much of Tv1 coverage is polls and opinion. Sigh.
It’s bloody Polltergeist; when you think you’ve dealt with one, another pops up & out of your screen and sucks away any ‘life force’.
Please please get Winston below 5%
ha ha agreed…Winston was very poor on Morning Report this morning….NZF sliding into oblivion?
14% undecided in this poll is high.
Yes that has gone up… which suggests some have wavered, making Ardern’s clarification important on the face of it?
I just added a tweet from the Newsroom guy about the significance of the NZF polling.
mightn’t he get an electorate or two?
He won Northland by virtue of a whole lot of Labour and Greens voters holding their noses to vote for him. Because it would reduce the Nat majority so instead of needing any one of the hairdo, the hologram or the Maori Party, they would need the hairdo AND the hologram, or the Maori Party.
That strange situation no longer applies. So I reckon there’s a good chance Northland goes back to blue.
I think National trying to foist a crook onto the cockies, had a bit to do with it also.
Election bribe today with Landcorp farms too.
How’s he doing in Northland. Is he likely to retain his seat?
That is the big question. It’s a Blue seat and Winston is Old Blue.
Hopefully the 67% “youthquake” holds firm.
ps The Nats looking really really worried……………..
And if the youtbquake is going Labour then some older heads will understand the wisdom of voting Green.
I can see only one explanation for these polls that makes any sense.
National has spent it’s money on bribing TV3
Labour has put their money into bribing TV1
I suppose the next move will be for Grant Robertson to retract his statement and do a flop/flip.
Might have a Morgan Poll tomorrow of course.
Right! Company About Turn!
You’re in a spin, alwyn! The world turns as does the worm and you’re left dazed and confused. The Greens! Still in The Race??? Inconceivable!!
Wow. You really have cheered up fast, haven’t you?
Still, it was rather sad to have to see a grown man sobbing unhappily into his beer.
Oh, yes, i’m cheered alright! You, alwyn? Share your feelings – you’re with friends.
My feelings are very simple.
I haven’t the faintest idea what is going on and what the final result is going to be anymore.
At this rate though one of the TV channels is going to be like The Literary Digest in the 1936 Presidential election.
They predicted Landon would defeat Roosevelt by 57% to 43%.
The actual result was Roosevelt beat Landon by 62% to 38%.
All we have to see is which one is the real result and which one the ridiculous prediction.
Gentlemen, place your bets.
I am putting my money on National 58 seats, Labour 58 seats, Maori Party 2 seats and ACT 2 seats.
The Green Party and New Zealand First will both end up on 4.9% and no electorate seats.
This was before the Green resignations. Picking it will be what it is tonight +/- 2%
You haven’t the faintest idea what’s going on, alwyn?
Spare us your unfounded predictions then. They’re nothing more than wishy-wishy.
Really? You disappoint me.
Until now I thought you had a sense of humour.
Do I have to put signs like “laugh” around statements like that election prediction?
I hate to disappoint. Perhaps my sense of humour has deserted me, as Toddy deserted the country he so loved?
Must try harder.
Ah, you remind me of people from the past.
What ever happened to that nice young man Darren Hughes?
And has that paragon of virtue Meteria whatever-she-is paid back the money she defrauded the taxpayer of?
And is that moral and ethical man Kennedy Good going to be admitted to the Environmentalist Green Party that we hope will take over the name “Green” from the current lot of anarchists when they depart from our Parliament?
Alwynger that’s where National have failed throwing muck at everyone but its bounced off an landed back on National.
And you know why they got it so wrong?
They polled their readers. Readers who were heavily Republican.
You read the article then?
I am pleased. I did wonder before getting a suitable link to the story whether anyone would really be interested in that arcane US minutiae enough to want to read more.
The magazine died not long after that fiasco. After publishing since 1890 its final issue was in 1938.
You would be amazed at the number of times people click through to links. But it is highly selective. Interesting watching whose and what links get clicked on. I have come to the conclusion that it is a combination between credibility and explanation about why the link should be clicked.
But don’t expect recognition. Often the most clicked explanatory (ie not news) links will not get replies. They just start popping up in debate weeks or even years later.
Where do you see stats on comment links?
In the Google analytics site. It is way down. When I get out of the pub and if I am still coherent I will tell you the obscure linkage.
There is also somewhere in the wordpress stats
No I knew that fact for years. It is a classic example of sampling bias. Any statistician is well aware of it.
Disclaimer: I began my career in the Research Branch of the Dept of Statistics.
Oh well. I hope someone who didn’t know the story might have read it.
It is a salutary story, even if the only message one gets is that just because “all my friends think ….” or “everyone I talk to says …” is no evidence at all about what the country as a whole thinks or wants
Yes indeed, and it is a salutary lesson to those who place too much faith in land lines and self-selected internet polling. Even if polling companies weigh each score according to age, region, etc.
The explanation? We need to stop our obsession for polls as a substitute for genuine analysis and discussion. It is beyond lazy journalism it is getting negligent.
Just ban reporting of polls in the electioneering period already.
If there was no reporting on the polls, the left would not be enjoying the momentum they are
It’s getting rid of the Bandwagon Effect that I want to achieve. Make people think about who they’re voting for rather than follow the herd.
Yeah I agree
But the means justifies the ends in this election.
Labour would have been polling 40%+ 2 months ago if voters based their pick on policy. Nothing has changed on the policy front. Just Paddy and his gushing.
My take on how the media present the polls:
Labour gaining – Media shock jocks – “What can it mean? Can it really be true? Could it be good for the left”?
Labour neck and neck – “What can it mean? Can it really be true? Could it be good for the left”?
Labour ahead – Media shock jocks – “What can it mean? Can it really be true? Could it be good for the left”?
One poll puts National back in front – Media shock jocks – “National back in charge, Its all over for Labour, National has got it in the bag.”
BTW – the Reid research internet panel is clearly a waste of space.
Spot on Sanctuary.
We’ve witnessed it first hand in the past three days. 😀
Btw you left the m…. shock jocks out of no. 2. 😈
“the Reid research internet panel is clearly a waste of space.”
lol…maybe…in reality with a sample size of a thousand all these polls are always going to struggle to get a true representative sample…..turnout is still the key.
Lol. One poll for national.
Labour have had three good ones in 9 years.
Corin Dann has said that the Colmar-Brunton has 67% of young voters backing Labour. The challenge now is to get them into the polling booth.
If they’ve given a preference my pick is they’re engaged and going to vote. In my experience if they’re not engaged you’d see a lot of shrugged shoulders and hear a higher number of “don’t care’s”
Current poll hits.
I’m dreaming of a Green Red Christmas
Singing in the rain, I’m hap hap happy again.
Isn’t it luverly luverly!!!
Excuse me, but I’m very happy.
Saw Tommy Steele as lead in “Singing in the Rain” at the London Palladium in Xmas 1984. We were in the front stall 3 rows from the stage and during the singing of the title song the stage was awash as “rain” bucketed down. Tommy went off apparently soaked to the skin – but very happy to appear back on stage a few minutes later completely dry. Every time I hear that song it brings back that memory.
What Corin Dann might have said but of course didn’t:
“Huge wakeup call for National. Their focus on creating fear around tax is simply playing to their base. It’s not convincing people to switch to National. The noise about tax is coming from wealthier sections of the community who will always support National anyway.”
If there had been a similar opportunity to say something like that about Labour, he would have been in like a shot. Overpaid prat.
Wondering that myself. Still scary that 40+% of voters back this lot.
Thats going to wipe the smile off the English/joyce face wont it just, so watch the debate between Joyce/Robertson Financial leaders debate tonight.
That will be a bucket of huff & puff eh!!!
…watch the debate between Joyce/Robertson Financial leaders debate tonight.
Where is it cleangreen? I’ve lost the plot when it comes to the debates. So many of em.
Stuff at 7pm. for debate.
Joyce/Robertson debate 7pm on stuff folks.
tbh, I can’t think of anything more boring to do after this poll.
shock and awe the nats are fucked oh paddys head must be exploding
Poor Paddy. On tonight’s TV3 news he presented further data from their poll, this time about Joyce’s 11 billion hole claim.
According to the poll 29% believe Joyce, 49% think he’s lying, and 22% don’t know. Gower then proceeded to add the don’t knows to the believers and somehow claimed this as a win for Joyce! Wow.
Poor Paddy. What’s he going to do when Labour Greens get in. He’s such a brown noser.
Remember when Paddy was Garner’s understudy? I do he asked probing questions and fact checked. Once Garner movrd on Paddy saw his name in lights and it has been about him.ever since. He doesnt have this on his own.
Why do know female press galleriers make it to TV?
This is heartening news. Especially as we may see NZ First shut out. Winston’s interview this morning was quite a revealing train wreck.
Aim high Jacinda !
Go all the way without the Greens and don’t listen to the idiot Grant Robertson.
Talk about the smiling village idiot.
Your animosity towards Grant Robertson is blinding you. He’s a key member of Jacinda’s team and he’s doing a bloody good job.
Well well well I watched the Stuff Finance Debate, and am sorry to say but Grant looked like the fat boy from willy wonker and the chocolate factory.
Please get rid of him Jacina ! AIEEEEEE !
If that is your impression of Robertson, hate to think what you might have to say about Joyce and his pathetic showing. Couldn’t even get his lies straight.
Who gives a fuck what Robertson (or any politician) looks like? Grow up, you seem to be “teatering” on the edge of a meltdown.
Nacts won’t be able to function without power they will have serious mental breakdown downs
You are voting Nats or NZF so what do you care. Your comment is puerile
Time for a cup of tea, you do realise that there is more that one person in a Govt, a vote for Jacinda is also a vote for Robinson. Great recommendation of the Labour # 2.
Given Labour was about 23% a few weeks ago the reaction of the media to some of these polls beggars belief. A “drop” in a poll to 40% is still a rise of 17% in under 2 months. That is Phoenix stuff.
Maybe post election we coukd begin a petition to ban publishing of polls 3 months from an election?
At the very least they should be banned once the polling booths open.
I reckon two weeks (the voting period) would be good. Problem is what happens if the poll that comes out the night before the ban is a rogue and/or a big outlier from the poll of polls? Maybe better to have 3 week ban.
it’s illegal to poll someone who has already voted and ask them how they voted (which is probably why they ask something like “if you voted today ….”)
PM I truly think it needs to be longer than that. The “game” of the likes of Joyce and Key is totally geared to the polls through deliberate lies or obsfucation(sp). Not a single party should be harmed by the banning of polls during a campaign.
Now we put the hammer down and double our efforts just like we did a few days ago.
The red election is real and always had been.
agreed, this should be a motivator to work hard over the next 8 days.
Three CB/TV1 polls having Lab ahead +2, +4, +4
Two Reid/TV3 having Lab behind -4, -9
These pollsters must be doing different things. Something from a different polling company would be useful.
Meanwhile get the vote out.
I’ll tell you what is different. Reid Research only poll landlines. I think the others include mobiles.
Reid Research includes 25% online polling Anne. Colmar-Brunton is exclusively landlines. I think the disparity comes down to the way each company weighs up the so-called youthquake vote which is overwhelmingly in favour of Labour but doesn’t have the best track record when it come to actually turning up to vote.
Colmar-Brunton is exclusively landlines
According to Dann this poll result is because of all the youth swinging in behind Labour, yet I doubt anyone under the age of 40 has a landline.
I’m not quite getting the disconnect here if anything I’d expect the Reid poll to favour Labour and the Colmar Brunton poll to favour National.
Do you know if the undecideds are the same in each poll, or is one making tgem decide?
Is it possible that RR/Newshub weightings are discounting young voters according to their actual voting history and likelihood of turning up at the polls and Colmar-Brunton aren’t?
It would be great if when publishing poll data they had to provide a link to the full survey including method and questions asked.
I still recall the landline call i got in 2014 asking which party leader I preferred. English was an option and neither Green leader was on the list. When I told them there was silence and tgey said if I wanted Green my option was none of the above.
“ahead and safe” – spare us.
The problem with such new-found hubris is that it makes the Left look exactly like we did in 2008. Just slightly tackier/less founded in any kind of objective reality.
And we just threw the prospect of any meaningful tax reform out the window, kicking it out another 3 years. If this backfires, Robertson should resign.
If you look at the light you don’t see shadows. First win, second evaluate what improvements we can make. Don’t get me wrong the tax thing is fucked imo and I’ll deal with that AFTER the win. Kia kaha.
Yep. And if people are fucked off with Labour on the tax thing, then vote Green.
Way ahead of you. Was always planning to unless their pre-E-day polling had them below 4.2%
Or vote labour electorate AND green party vote as many here appear to be doing
Oh hell yes, I’m an Auckland Central elector and Helen White is an old professional colleague. She is even sweeter than she appears.
I don’t think I’m going to give my electorate vote to Labour, on principle. They’ve dropped the ball on welfare and the TPP in particular, I’m still not inclined to trust them on those. They’ll need to earn my seat vote next time.
I’m going to electorate vote labour, but then Iive in Upper Harbour, so that is the only way to get rid of the person that has dropped the ball harder on Welfare than anyone in labour has done (and even then we won’t actually be rid of her)
And if you look at the direction Labour is going in order to win through rose-tinted glasses, all the red flags just look like flags.
I was going to the sun then I realised not such a great analogy.
No Labour didn’t throw any meaningful tax reform out the window. Any reform was unlikely to be implemented until 2020-21 so all the attention was all just a beat up…..as usual.
It was a solid 2 weeks ago that Kelvin Davis said that Labour wouldn’t implement a CGT in its first term, and would go to the 2021 election to seek a mandate.
Immediately, Jacinda and Robertson went about gagging him and telling him to retract and that wasn’t the position.
An utterly retarded, ineffectual attack ad from National later and we have a 100% pure U-turn on the issue.
“clarification” — sure whatevs.
At least it looks like I can vote Green without my vote being wasted.
Good captains either navigate, or listen carefully to their navigator. In any event they act accordingly.
Good Captains listen carefully and critically to advice.
Weigh up the evidence, and then make the decision!
They do not give in to calls from the Captain, and crew, employed by their commercial opposition.
They, then take responsibility for it. Unlike politicians!
Maybe Roy Morgan in the next day or so will provide some much needed clarity?
Roy Morgan sample over a longer period (typically 2 weeks) and there’s almost always an unusually long delay between the end of their fieldwork and release, compared to other Pollsters.
So … probably not the most up-to-date. Always useful to compare sampling mid-points. And I very much doubt the next RM mid-point will be as late as Colmar Brunton’s 11 Sep.
Upshot: won’t clarify much in terms of shifting public opinion.
Well there you go . MY WISH ELECTION RESULTS
All our people no some one on a waiting list and they no that it takes 5 days to get a doctors appointment. We all see the people on the streets.
They see all the bad stats on MSM we have all seen what is happening with those Hurricanes in America so this is a logical poll result.
Paddy and news Hub have proven that what we have been saying about them is a fact.
That’s 116% mate
Well there is one wish that won’t be coming true.
Me too Anne. Can’t fid any ad for it? Anyone?
There is a kids one on Duke at 7 or :30
Joyce Robertson Debate at 7 tonight.
Thanks ianmac. I’ve been frantically trying to find it.
Here you go. Live streamed.
Whats the “score ” so far……..can you believe this idiocy.
Yes! matches the other polls for the last month and kicks Paddy’s dodgy one to touch.
Any thoughts on what the new position on tax will do for Labour?
The way this election is going it will be yesterday’s news in the next cycle.
Captain Kirk will reverse direction by the weekend and tax changes without telling the public first will probably go back to being flavour of the day.
Like National’s “read my lips, no more taxes”. LOL.
L00L,… if National were smart , – they’d shut the [email protected] up about taxation from here on in !!!
You present it as being a quote.
Can you provide a New Zealand source.
I don’t really think that President Bush was a member of the New Zealand National Party.
You reckon that GST rise was signalled pre election? Link please
Can you not read Tracey?
I asked for a source for the direct quote, attributed to National for
“Like National’s “read my lips, no more taxes”. “.
I haven’t been supplied one, from which I can reasonably assume that they never said it and KJT is lying about it.
As for you request “You reckon that GST rise was signalled pre election? Link please”.
Why should I try and supply answers to you hypothetical questions? I neither know nor care whether they did. Look it up for yourself if you are interested.
That humor transplant you accused someone of has turned on you
You having Key flashbacks alwyn?
Changing position on taxes is pretty easy. Use the National party “tail wagging the dog”
ACT party excuse.
PM Jacinda: “Well, yes, that was our promise but we have to play the cards the voters dealt us and our junior coalition partner made it a condition of government. Democracy is really the winner here.”
Party policies are promises made for if parties govern alone – it’s a “what I’d do if I were in charge” thing. That’s why the coalition partners are so important, even if it’s 45%-7% split.
The ACT thing was a farce because those lickspittles were doing pretty much whatever the nats wanted, except on things the nats didn’t care about overmuch. As soon as they became difficult they would have been squashed like a bug at the next Epsom election. So ACT just played bad cop, “advocating” for the things the nats would have done anyway, but would have damaged the nat vote too much.
Note Ardern’s caution:
and keep working hard to Change The Governement!
Yep, caution. There’s no more reason to assume this poll’s accurate than there is to assume TV3’s one the other day was. Who the fuck knows how we’re really doing?
My position is that we use polls for campaigning purposes (and motivation) rather than treating them as real.
The high level of early voting may be a positive indication; the crowds JA is getting.
Bearded Git, that’s my sense too. All the crowds Jacinda attracts surely means people are taking notice and wanting to see her. That must mean something! And that happens wherever she goes.
Obviously, Labours polling doesn’t reflect this poll.
If it did you wouldn’t have seen the tax u-turn today.
No u-turn BM, a clarification of the likely timeframe.
It’s worth point out too that with all this talk of polling volatility Colmar-Brunton has been pretty consistent – it’s had Labour in front for three weeks running.
One observation – a high youth turn out will mean even this poll is underestimating Labour/Green support.
good point. Likewise the underclasses.
Size of the undecideds too.
This, this, this!
Tomorrow and for the next week we need to door knock every HNZ tenant, living in the shoddy and uncared for houses that National have in effect abandoned and urge them to vote to change the government.
A new Government will stop the sale of HNZ houses in Chch.
It will invest in our housing stock, upgrading and building more.
It will build more houses across the board.
It will ensure landlords – including HNZ – must provide warm, dry, safe homes.
Now more than ever before they ned to vote.
We can do this.
🙂 exciting isn’t it ?…after 9 years of misgoverning ,…finally we get a government !!!
Not yet we havent
Thats more like it, however Greens still can’t be considered safe so lets keep an eye on the next couple….how it impacts poll of polls…still tight.
“National is ahead on 41.3 percent while Labour is on 40.5 percent.
New Zealand First is on 7.5 percent, the Greens are on 5.5 percent, the Māori Party is on 1.4 percent, the Opportunities Party is on 1.9 percent and ACT is on 0.6 percent.
On these numbers, National would win 51 seats, Labour would get 50, New Zealand First 9, the Greens 7, the Māori Party 2, and one for ACT.”
This poll’s a big relief, but we can’t get cocky or relaxed. The biggest issue is the need to get the vote out, especially the younger voters.
I’d love to believe this poll, but I won’t believe it until they’ve counted the votes.
On those numbers Labour could govern with the Greens alone, without the need for NZF.
Oh yes please.
Absolute music to my deaf old ears 🙂
My concern was the difference between TV1 and TV3 news tonight. TV1 reported its poll. TV 3 carried on as if its own poll were still relevant, and presented a very nasty, skewered version of Labour’s revision of its tax policy. Totally condemnatory, from a right-wing redneck stance. Gower must be spitting now that he knows more viewers watched TV1 and the poll that blows TV3’s perspective to pieces.
TV3 used their poll for poisoning the greens and labour both and set the heat onto tthe labour party that it was time they dropped the tax plan which labour did.
Never trust a private TV network as they work for corporate interests not the public.
Yep. Right-wingers complain about state ownership and left-wing communism. But the worst possible thing we can do is to allow private ownership of everything. The right-wingers take over the media and skewer it to suit their bias.
If it is privately owned, do not trust it. Greed and self-interest is the bottom line. Not good service and professionalism – that is just a shallow façade.
They must be shitting themselves over Labours idea to give RNZ a tv channel. Something I am certain Greens would support
Jolly good show , old chap !!!
But lets not stop feeding it to the blighters until they put their hands in the air and yell ‘ who’s a silly sausage , then !!! ‘
Lets do this!
Second recent poll with Labour + Greens on 51%.
Newsroom-SSI (4–6 Sep 2017): L45/G6
One News Colmar Brunton (9–13 Sep 2017): L44/G7
This lifts my spirits; a shift towards a sustainable, independent future for New Zealand is possible. But the dominance of hip pocket politics (‘What’s in it for me?’) in the current campaign is cause for concern – has neo-liberalism won?
The return of inequality
“There’s a myth that great wealth enables our economies to grow, but wealth can actually stand in the way of economic development; inequity can slow us down. Fairness lies at the heart of liberal democracy, and in the face of unfairness, we rebel. Unfairness makes us work less hard to create a good society – why should I work hard, what’s in it for me? Economic inequality inevitably translates into political inequality, which is not what we thought we were working towards.”
Typical Joyce bluster I saw there at the finance debate on stuff tonight..
Joyce still wont concede the $11 billion dollar hole mistake and reckons now he has never changed like a zebra he is.
Robertson was good and never was stunned, and tracy was a great moderator and kept Joyce under control well, as that was a big task.
Good entertainment there. Thanks stuff you are a rock.
Joyce is probably right about the hole: the new government will discover it in the books on September 24th. The date of this election was set over a year ago, according to Patrick Gower.
The books will not be in order you can bet, as this government has lied to us for many years since they promised they would not raise GST and when they got into power they raised GST from 15c to 17.5c straight away so be ready for shocks there.
Well, we can see how much faith we can take in cleangreen’s opinions.
Would you like to have another guess at the GST rate in New Zealand or will you simply admit that you are totally ignorant on the matter?
Yeah Cleangreen. And the comperes let it flow. Good work Vernon and Tracey. Top marks for Grant.
That is not correct and whoever is writing under the NOTICES AND FEATURES byline should be ashamed of themselves. I suspect they know they are doing a Bad Thing but decided to put it out there anyway for purposes of propaganda.
Comparing the findings of a Colmar Brunton poll and a Reid Research poll does not show one is accurate and one inaccurate. Even comparing several CB polls to the RR poll does not invalidate it. It merely shows that the two companies have different sampling methods and / or process the data differently and obtain different results.
The only things that would show RR’s poll to be a rogue would be further RR polls that show significantly different results; or the election result itself.
You’ll recall that in Britain, Survation was mocked when its polls showed Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party closing in on May’s Conservatives. Other companies showed the Conservatives well ahead. It turned out that Survation was correct and they called the result more accurately than the other companies, by considerable margins. You do not know which polling company has the right formula (or the least wrong, more like) until the real votes are counted. Until then, you can only regard the forecasts with bemused curiosity or phlegmatic disdain.
Do not dismiss the latest RR poll until it is invalidated by further RR polls. The alternative is psephological madness.
Where is that quote from? I’m not seeing it in the post.
I can see it when I view the front page, but not when the post is opened.
I’ve taken a screenshot. Dunno how to post it here, though.
This at least links to what I was seeing:
It is on the front page of the post.
yeah you need to take a rest.
Reid Research weight their 1000 respondents with age, sex and geography. Mostly on landlines, I think both bring in some others. But only about 65-70% of households now have landlines.
The big difference is that Colmar Brunton also weight their respondents on ethnicity and household size.
I know which poll I would trust more. Colmar also tell us how many got excluded for no firm answer.
Looking at the Reid research polls over a number of years, Labour has increased their share of the “vote” fairly rapidly since Ardern became leader. At the same time she has rocketed up as preferred PM. I’d say all polling is showing that, which must be a concern for National.
If the main parties internal polling has them neck and neck, expect to see even more media attacks lines on the greens.
Remember — keep an eye on the trend:
It is likely (note: not certain) that the Newshub / Reid Research polling is flawed.
If you drop them out, and also drop the Newsroom-SSI poll, then you get a trend: Labour are creeping ahead into the mid forties while National have sunk to around forty. The Greens seem to have stabilised around six percent.
So, if this holds — or continues the trend — then you will have a Labour-Green coalition.
(I expect NZ First to start attacking the Greens hard, and if the Nats join in then you will know the strategy and who Winston has a deal with.)
The tv1 poll tonight is one poll; the tv3 poll was another poll. Its tempting to assume that tonight’s tv1 poll is the more credible one because it puts labour in front. But it foolish, or desperate to believe this is the case.
For starters there are something like 14% undecideds in tonights poll. Thats a high percentage. The undecided could go anywhere. Secondly the tv3 and tv1 polls use relatively similar methodologies and yet are coming up with wildly divergent results. This is very unusual. Maybe tv3’s results are actually the more accurate ones. Who knows.
I wouldn’t crow about tv1’s results favouring labour tonight.
All the results are telling me is that the electorate is very volatile and that its anybody’s race.
For starters there are something like 14% undecideds in tonights poll. Thats a high percentage. The undecided could go anywhere.
Is it high? How many undecideds were there in the Newshub poll? Virtually none!
But let’s look at voter turnout. In 2014, 77% of enrolled voters actually voted. That means that 23% didn’t. In that context, 14% doesn’t seem high at all. The Newshub poll looks odd because there seems to have been no (or very few) undecideds. That simply isn’t credible.
In the 2014 election, the turnout of those aged aged 18 to 29 was a mere 62%. So 38% of enrolled voters in that age group didn’t vote. Again, 14% undecideds doesn’t look high. Maybe most of those undecideds simply won’t vote. What would be interesting to know is how many young people were questioned as part of the Newshub poll.
There is some further data released about th Red Research poll. At least, I don’t recall seeing it before. Shows the undecided / would not votes from this, and previous polling data.
I don’t think there is anything to be gained from bagging RR. Their forecast for the 2014 election was pretty good.
I was simply pointing out that there were little or no undecideds in the RR poll. Meanwhile, around 20% of voters will decide not to vote at this election.
The RR poll says that National could govern alone. That is interesting because while John Key was leader of National, it was never able to govern alone. (National’s best result under Key was in 2011 when it got 47.3% of the vote.) Yet under English, who surely isn’t as popular as Key, National’s share of the vote could be such that it governs alone? That just doesn’t seem credible.
Well, I think Keith Ng put it best:
RR do seem to be at the outer range of other polls, though.
Their last two polls do appear to be outliers. I don’t know why.
Either they are correct, with a sudden strong reversal in the trend toward Labour, or all of the other polls are correct in confirming the trend continuing.
(My suspicion about ‘undecideds’ is that most don’t vote, and most of those that do just vote for whichever party they think will win. People who don’t know their own opinions, or cannot understand policy differences, are more likely to just drift along with the largest crowd.)
Listening to Gower and reading The Herald In the aftermath of that crap Newshub poll showed the rightie media to be the idiots they are. Is anyone hyping tonight’s CB poll as damning and devastating? Where’s the counter pieces to ‘ Jacindas credibility damaged’ and ‘why the Jacinda tidal waves has stalled’ and so on. It was truly disturbing to see Prebble trotted out with an opinion piece slating the fortunes of Jacinda – placed as the front story on their website for chunks of yesterday, followed by Audrey Youngs hit pieces on the poll result and framing her as weak and doing a ‘U turn’. Amazing, well suck that up righties.
Even TV1 news has at least two stories about Bill each day, with babies and the like.
The Greens’ position is still precarious.
Colmar Brunton at same point in 2014
……….. CB ……………… 2014 Election Result
Green 14% ……………. 10.7% (- 3.3 points)
If replicated this time … Green Latest CB 7% …. = 2017 Election 3.7% (ie – 3.3 points)
Newshub Reid Research at same point in 2014
……….. NRR ……………. 2014 Election Result
Green 13% ……………. 10.7% (- 2.3 points)
If replicated this time … Green Latest NRR 4.9% …. = 2017 Election 2.6% (ie – 2.3 points)
(UMR same Green % as NRR at same point 2014 = 13%. So, UMR’s latest Green 7% would suggest Green 4.7% at the 2017 Election if same over-stating this time)
Final Round of Polling (average last 5 Polls) overstated Green support
+ 1.9 (2014)
+ 1.3 (2011)
+ 1.6 (2008)
So let’s be clear … the Greens have an obvious propensity to underperform on Election Day. Will it be different this time ? …, given the Greens are down to their core support rather than riding the crest of a late wave as in previous Elections – ie solid base support rather than froth ?
Maybe but it’s hard to be sure …, we might be talking an innate propensity associated with the younger age of their support base + poor GOTV operation
Either way … I wouldn’t get too complacent … the Greens are by no means out of the woods yet.
So, just to clarify …
If Pollsters are overstating Green support to the same extent that they did in 2014 … then the Greens are currently heading for anything between 2.6% – 4.7%.
So, the very last thing you want to be thinking is: Thank God for that, we’re Safe !!!
Arent they overstating Green when Labour is weak though? Go back to previous elections when Labour was strong and see what the polls versus election results show.
It isnt just about maths it is about where votes are coming from.
Final Round of Polling overstated Green support
1 point – Colmar Brunton
2 points – TV3
2 points – Herald-Digi
2 points – UMR
(ie 2002 Election Result = 7%
Final CB = 8%
Final TV3 = 9%
Final HD = 9%
Final UMR= 9%)
Pretty much the same 1-2 point overstate as 2008 2011 2014
Mind you – the knife-edge Election of 2005 = rather more mixed
Fairfax Media–Nielsen = overstates by 0.7
TV3 = overstates by 1.6
Colmar Brunton = understates by 0.3
Herald-Digi = understates by 0.7
And this is shaping up to be a knife-edge Election … so …
And if we go back further we might find when Green polled near 5% they got 5% or more
Don’t have full 99 figures but …
Jack Vowles (NZES) has argued the Greens polling only improved & they only cleared the 5% threshold in 1999 as a direct result of a Coromandel Poll putting Jeanette Fitzsimons ahead there (hence telling sympathetic voters a Green Party-Vote wouldn’t be wasted)*
2017 = Different Context
*Indeed have a vague direct memory of this myself
greens will have to be consistently polling above 7% to feel comfortable…..how many polls expected before next sat?
3 – at a guess
It isnt just about maths it is about where votes are coming from.
CB has a gender bias of 57/43 f/m
How do you arrive at that assertion?
Colmar-Brunton’s Methodology Summary for Weighting the poll states:
“The data have been weighted to align with Statistics New Zealand population counts for age, gender, household size and ethnic identification.”
Cusum / cb poll feb -sept 2014
10210 ( 5720F/ 4490m)
I agree the Green position is a bit precarious. However subtracting the same percentage from 14% as from 7% would seem to be subtracting votes the party never had.
Of course we may expect that the first votes to leave are the most likely to have been over represented in the poll, but assume they are evenly distributed. Then you should subtract only 7/14 of your offset -3.3 surely.
This seems obvious if we consider what to do if the Greens had polled 2% and you subtract 3.3% leaving them with -1.3% of the vote (which seems pretty unlikely as an outcome).
Maybe. I have a feeling that when Labour is strong the change between polss and election day is smaller than when Labour is weak. Just a hunch.
Actually I was being slightly gentle in that comment. There is a logical mathematical mistake there and if your arguing CB over polls the Greens by 3.3% at 14% then you should subtract 3.3/2% when they poll at 14/2=7%. That would put them at 7-1.65=5.35% on election night.
Its still very close to 5% of course.
One other point should be made.
AFAIK those interviewed by pollsters are not asked how certain they are of voting. It’s been a rumour for a long time, and it might even be true, that left-leaning voters can sometimes decide not to vote if, for instance, it’s raining on election day. Of course, with two weeks of advance voting, rain shouldn’t be a factor! But it does beg the question: how many of those being polled will actually vote?
“But it does beg the question: how many of those being polled will actually vote?”
I don’t know about all pollsters but the two i have done that is one of the first questions asked….whether the response reflects reality is another question..
Anyone got a sense yet of what % of voters will have voted before next Saturday?
229259 up to Thursday. The rate appears to be accelerating.
Looking at the trend line for 2014. Between 1.3 and 1.6 million by next Friday would be my best guess.