- Date published:
6:36 pm, June 25th, 2020 - 117 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, polls, uncategorized - Tags:
The latest Colmar Brunton poll results have been released and Labour is still remarkably in a position to rule on its own.
Results are above. National will breathe a sigh of relief that its support has rebounded.
The Greens are on the right side of 5%. New Zealand First looks like it is gone.
The next three months will be very interesting …
Won't be sad to see the handbrake NZfist go.
it would be hard to not celebrate that.
Yep, and take quick hand Shane with you when you go. lol
Be a relief not to have to rely on them lot.
That'll be hand shandy Shane…..
NZ first gave us the Jacinda government saving tens of thousands of New Zealand lives!
That is a very valid point also.
Thats purely speculation.. Theres no reference point but ill play your game
If jacindas decisions saved lives then if community transmission starts again under her watch then all deaths are on her hands.. All future deaths are because of the blunders of jacindas leadership.. she makes the calls , she wears the glory or carries the condemnation
Death merchants dont poll well , perhaps some celebrating should be with held until the finish line is at the least in site. comments like the above could otherwise be used as the ammunition that derails …….
tens of thousands of deaths could still be easily plausible or hopefully none at all
My point is if people stay humble and dont scream their achievements others cant throw pie in their face
From DR at 6:38 pm:
As was predicted by TS commenters, the media are over-egging the gains made by National in the latest poll:
"Massive" is the word some are using.
It should be remembered that relative to Reid Research and UMR , CB polls have historically favoured the Right. That is, National and ACT.
Even with the News media hype,
The Nats are not doing well,
Their lies and aggression,
Will send them down to hell.
The Polls show their party split,
With infighting and distrust,
Their ruddy worried faces,
Are swollen with poison puss.
So good to put the boot in,
And cut their twitching nerve,
Give them a taste of austerity,
Thats the pay-back they deserve
Don’t hold back Perhaps also haggard faces bloated with bile
Jacinda like many in the LP will be forever grateful to Winston
He and our stunning leader have led New Zealand away from the darkness of National Party mis – rule – now to push the bastards over the cliff
The government has just had by far the worst week since the virus took over our lives in March, and the opposition has (since the last poll) got rid of the most unpopular leader in modern (MMP) history. The polls were only going to go one way. I don't really mind the wake-up call here, Labour needed it.
TV1 release the details in stages (annoyingly) so it'll be a day or two before we know the underlying numbers.
And the wake up call is not as bad as it might have been given how terrible the week was. There is still a good quarter of a million National voters who have switched to Ardern and Labour.
Perhaps National Party persons polled have been instructed to lie when polled?
Are we being led up the [G]Arden Path?
…so it'll be a day or two before we know the underlying numbers.
In particular the ever important "I won't tell you" or "I don't know".
Yes a worrying 15% undecided.
Normal service has resumed at the Herald. Their original headline on Derek Chang’s piece “Labour could govern alone” has been replaced with “9% swing to National with Muller as leader”. Haha.
Ha I like that. It is a pity we don't have the satire programmes of the sixties and seventies to show up this shit for what it is. Shit.
RNZ's headline has it about right I think:
National rebounds in new poll, but still well behind Labour
must get the focus right at NZH.
Had the poll been taken today I reckon National would be in the 40's. Health Minister David Clark may ultimately be the circuit breaker that will lose Labour the election which is theirs to lose.But what do I know!
and Jacinda not fronting to media. She can't make hard calls
and Todd Who can?
That's Doctor Todd Who-ller thank you.
As the Small business spokewhatever for the decline party Hot toddy will be advocating for govt moving account payments out to three months as Fonterra practised when he was in some tier of management.
She is fronting to the media all the time. But you know that already, she has to be either "photo op" or "hiding", the tiresome attack lines with an each way bet.
+1 This exactly.
A sort of Schrodinger's Prime Minister, according to the NActs.
True, and I wish she'd just stop parading that bloody baby in front of the media every second of the day 😉
I bet she can’t even crack a safe.
She's a pretty good plumber.
Jesus Christ mate what planet do currently reside on? The woman has been on the telly practically every night for months.
Yeah she was on the telly, lapping up all the accolades. When things turned bad, she was missing in action.
[you’ve used a few different names here in the past. Please choose a permanent one for your next comment and stick to it going forward. Thanks. – weka]
mod note above for you RiR.
This is the woman who fronted Micoplasma bovis Myrtle rust, The terrorist shooting, An erruption……and a pandemic…& you think she is running scared? Get bloody real!! Tell us why?
Is it hard to hug people, appear sympathetic and read off a teleprompter?
Yes, Ben, it is hard to do if you don't mean it and not get found out for being an insincere, unsympathetic, narcissistic bully in it only for the personal gain of yourself and your cronies.
Sooner or later the mask slips.
The mask is slipping champ.
actually Patricia lets not invite Ben to tell us more. He is facile
I will ignore all Bens in future anker
Maybe people want her to front on things other than reacting to extraordinary events…which she does awesomely well, but still…everyday life continues for most people…they want to get to work be it by rail or whatever, they want affordable housing, they want jobs that are secure and well paid, they sure as eggs don't like Corporate welfare for bungy jumping and rich listers, they don't want more rearranging of the
deck chair's on the TitanicHealth system, they want the Government to actually fund a broad base of University education , ambulances, the fire service, they want real preparedness for climate change, not just 'shovel ready' quick fixes…the list goes on…and who knows what Labour will do if they get in without NZ First..who then can the transfer the blame to for their austerity mentality?
Siobhan, 50 billion to help us through a pandemic is austerity mentality.???
Are you saying never mind the big stuff.. deal with the little stuff Oh right. That worked in UK and USA . Not!! Were you affected by the rail problem??
Our Titanic Health System and Leadership has seen us in a better place than most.
But you are right that people always want more.
Jacinda who? The one that hugs and calls for kindness but has delivered nothing (think Kiwibuild for middle class NZers, light rail down dominion Rd to the airport (think who would benefit) free tertiary fees (for all and sundry regardless of need), etc. The woman and her cabinet are useless at best, Parker aside. Most transparent government – yeah right! Time for a change.
Yeah she was to blame for the Saudi Sheep farm, Todd Barclay and the 400 missing texts, authorising the Gsb to spy on us ( you have nothing to fear Ben) slashing the health and education salaries,still haven’t fixed Christchurch after 10 years ( we so need Gerry back) there’s so much to blame her for!
Jacinda who? The one that hugs and calls for kindness but has delivered nothing (think Kiwibuild for middle class NZers, light rail down dominion Rd to the airport (think who would benefit) free tertiary fees (for all and sundry regardless of need), etc. The woman and her cabinet are useless at best, Parker aside. Most transparent government – yeah right! The need for change is urgent
Career politician with f all experience outside of communications studies classrooms, a fish and chip shop, and being groomed by old washed up socialists who are now profiteering at the trough. Makes me sick.
"The woman" – think you mean PM Ardern. Why precisely, in your opinion, is "the need for change" urgent?
“Once again, there is no community transmission in New Zealand.” – Dr Ashley Bloomfield (during today’s RNZ 1 pm news bulletin)
Ben, if you’re feeling sick then you should get tested – take one for the team.
She is a woman, right? And yes the prime minister. Did I leave any identities out?
I also did not allude to COVID-19. A tad confused.
Ps. Drowsy, stop projecting your own potential symptoms. Tiredness is a COVID-19 symptom.
"A tad confused." Impressive self-awareness; couldn't have put it better.
Should we keep going tit for tat so that you can feel better?
I'm feeling well; thought you were the one feeling sick. What symptoms?
My bad, I just stumbled into this echo chamber.
"I just stumbled" – so, problems with your balance. Anything else?
It is your posts that seem to have been echoing.
I agree. Mr Drowsy 💤 is having a few issues
My reply was to you. You keep repeating yourself.
What? I’m confused again (the public education system failed me).
Poor balance, repetition and confusion! Get checked out – urgently.
For what Dr Drowsy?
That’s Professor Drowsy to you. At the risk of repeating myself, for your symptoms: stumbling, repetition, confusion and poor comprehension.
Thanks for putting my mind at ease Dr Drowsy. I’ll get your diagnosed symptoms checked and hope for a treatment. Remember to be kind.
My sincere apologies professor (MD?). If I had known your title and qualifications from the get go I would never have troubled you. All the best with your studies.
Your very welcome Ben.
Drowsy, should we keep going tit for tat so that you can feel better or do you think that you will fall asleep?
Ben, we don't need an echo chamber, debate is welcome, but you'll need to do much better than this.
Everyone knows the "Cindy Hate Bingo card", it's spewed out every day in lieu of coherent criticism. You've just ticked off half a dozen of the cliches … Fish and chips! What wit! Nobody ever thought of that one before, well done.
If Ardern makes you sick, perhaps you should examine the real cause of your sickness.
Keep your comments coming Observer. Loving them
Oh, I see daylight. I’m going to stumble out of this unbalanced echo chamber. Vertigo was setting in. That said, it was a strange experience but interesting. Hitherto, I thought the extreme left was all about kindness. I was badly mistaken. Good bye
Extreme left, you have lived a sheltered gated community bubble life.
Vertigo, is based on a perception – someone who has lived a sheltered life may need to return to such surroundings to feel secure in their own world view at Kiwiblog or 4 chan.
A bit like those folk whose jobs or personal safety feel at risk so they return to New Zealand where a competent government would keep them safe. Not so sure that would have happened if National was in office and had chosen continuing to do business over public health imperatives (to the harm of business in the end).
Ben. You are living proof of the theory of the dumbing down of the population. Pray tell us of Bill English’s qualifications on entering parliament. Obviously, small businesses as fish and chip shops are an object of derision to you and possibly hot toddy as well given his claimed working in management of a company that pushed out its account payments for small suppliers to three months. Possibly if toddy had any real experience of business he or you could explain why NZ businesses, or the 5th column are crying plagues and pestilence after 6or so weeks of diminished trading when it was quite ok not to pay Fonterras small suppliers for three months.
Ben your contribution here is pathetic
Infused next time before you post a comment, I suggest you pause and run it passed an intelligent person.
Jacinda can't make hard calls………what planet are you on????? Over the last three months she closed our borders and locked the country done. It doesn't get any harder than that.
I want to say what I have said here before. If people think David Clark is responsible for the border. issue, then he is also responsible for our amazing Covid response.
Thanks Professor Anker, can you provide me with your contact details so that I can ensure I get wise and intelligent advise from you before making any comment?
Advice, use spell check more and or learn about grammarly.
Sorry, my poor public funded education precluded me from being an elite grammarian. Not my fault. It is someone else’s fault
Just using spell check and grammarly while wearing a suit is sufficient to pass for an intelligent person whose opine on something is to be taken seriously. Son, clothes maketh men while women remain women. This has been the truth since Adam was a cowboy at Ponderosa.
The "circuit breaker" is the virus – first, second, and last. Right now the focus is on government vs opposition. In an election campaign, the focus is on Labour vs National, and the candidates for PM.
Since National's position is a) there is community transfer now, and b) we should open up the borders now, then we can all look forward to Muller's gymnastics on the campaign trail.
Ardern could dump Clark tomorrow, or whenever she wants. National can't dump Muller, at all.
Assuming the current situation doesn’t change dramatically I reckon the community transmission situation could become a real millstone around Muller’s neck. I think National assumed we’d have renewed community transmission by now (almost everywhere else has right?) But it hasn’t eventuated so far. A week or so from now (2 infection cycles from the border debacle) he could really be facing heavy fire for wishing that scenario on NZ for political opportunism.
ScottGN "Assuming the current situation doesn’t change dramatically I reckon the community transmission situation could become a real millstone around Muller’s neck. I think National assumed we’d have renewed community transmission by now (almost everywhere else has right?) But it hasn’t eventuated so far. A week or so from now (2 infection cycles from the border debacle) he could really be facing heavy fire for wishing that scenario on NZ for political opportunism. "
Good point Scott in an ideal world yes -but one of the big problems for a Labour 2020 Election Win is NZ is basically a liberal country and punters are looking for any excuse to switch back to National.
And the evidence to support that claim?
There isint any, National wanted Bridges out, for obvious reasons, consistent low polling cemented that, now they have a new leader who in reality, is just temporary till they can find a more suitable leader.
It's not so much that we are a liberal country – but that there are 50% or so who are on the property ladder and are securely employed (and or or super) and thus comfortable and unchallenged in their gated commnity bubble while National is in government.
But from time to time, some appreciate that limited government funding and or the society decay around them (inadeaquate pay to essential workers) becomes objectionable enough for them to adopt their centrist balance. And if they will not Peters and NZF will.
Perhaps Dear Observer, you could discuss/hypothesise the real cause with Professor Drowsy. I’m just a ship passing slowly through the Standard tonight. I’m sure our dear leader can look after herself without “observers” rushing to protect against social media keyboard warriors.
Indeed what do you know? The poll was in the field until yesterday. One more day might just have captured more people’s reaction to Woodhouse’s dumb excuse for getting sucked into the myth of the Homeless Man.
Brian Tregaskin @ # 7 7.01pm
Very valid point Brian, but if we had a decent media they could also be screaming for that bit of Tory low life to resign from the National party after he put the lives of every New Zealander at risk by withholding information about potential carriers and wasting time and money that this administration had to spend investigating his false allegations .
NZ1st may still sneak in via Northland. Winston's far from finished.
Perhaps but if they do it will only be about 3 MPs.
"NZ1st may still sneak in via Northland. Winston's far from finished."
Winston can never be underestimated:)
Pedantry again, but..
It annoys me when people say the opposite of what they mean.
'Can' = it is possible. Cannot = it is not possible.
"Winston can never be underestimated:)" therefore means that Winstone is so tiny and insignificant that it is not possible to underestimate him.
Sentence should have been either:
"Winstone must never be underestimated," or
"Winstone can never be overestimated."
Cannot never means must not, and confusing the two is foolish, as this example shows.
And I am also tired of the number of people with little respect for language who say, "Oh, it's not all that important… We can tell what they mean… Near enough is good enough."
That is how Orwell's Newspeak gets accepted.
Fellow pedant (it's always nice to meet another one): it's "Winston", not "Winstone". You're welcome .
My finger slipped! I’m not so hard on typos, personally..
I think the key point here is that Ardern and Muller will keep being asked the obvious question: rule Winston in/out? (it gets annoying but reporters love to ask it and frame it, so it has to be answered).
An easy Q for Ardern (in) and Bridges (out), but Todd wants to shake it all about. He will be toast if he keeps equivocating, as he has.
This is terrific.
63 or 64 seats labour
Greens remaining in.
If Labour is able to secure a full majority, it's a dream I know but it's never been more of a possibility. I hope they govern alone, they then have noone to blame for not being a reforming govt and also because the greens are more popular out of govt and will increase in support making a third term easier.
As for Winston it's looking grim but never count him out, I'm 28 and people have said he's over since I was 7 and I genuinely believe his voters don't say they'll vote for him and there will be plenty of Nat voters saying they'll vote national but voting NZ f in secret to put the breaks on Labour it's also a vote for a potential Nat govt. Plus labour should do a wink and a nod in Northland. I personally like Winston as a character and think parliament would be so dull without him, noone on the left hates national as much as Winston does and Winston does speak for a demographic that the left can't speak win over and they'd just go to national a lot of them so, good luck in bleed Nat votes Winnie.
Anyway can we have an early election. Just say we can't afford to have a caretaker govt for three months in the middle of an international crisis. July election like 2002. Dooo it Jacinda!
Labour needs slightly over 50% to be sure of a majority. ACT delivers on average an extra seat for National – the party vote in that electorate delivers an MP for National, and ACT delivers an electorate MP. I don't see it as an election issue, but it is a shame the threshold was not reduced, and the coat-tailing rule should go.
Poll better than feared but we sort of knew that loyal NAT supporters would return to the fold regardless. It was always going to be Labour down in the poll – history.
Anyway I am going to what little I am able to do to help Labour stay high.
Same ianmac Doing my bit for Labour. So pleased for the Greens too.
Why better than you feared?
Because we heard about the issues with social isolation and compassionate leave and people were understandable upset as Ardern and Clark (who acted quickly on the issues). Then National played politics, and lied "hugs and kisses anyone" and the homeless man (dead cat)……and all Muller can do is say its a disgrace, its a disgrace, which would be bewildering to almost every other country in the world.
Todd got very, very lucky this time. Nothing to do with his personal charm and charisma. 37 % aint anything to feel pleased about.
Haha, “hugs and kisses”. Doesn’t that sound familiar Professor Anker?
IS it uncle Bens rice, or all Bens they are getting rid of
Any ideas how? I'm really pissed with all the bias in media and have real concerns that the sensationalism with headlines is going to negatively impact Labour's chances.
On Reddit the mood is one where people look at Jacinda's integrity as spineless for not launching full bitch mode. They seem to miss the point that integrity = spine
Lol- imagine the scorn and speculation if two Labour grandees went at each other the way Collins and Bennett did in the corridors of parliament.
Labour is over 50%. It couldn't break 30 for donkeys years. No mates Nats on 38. Compare it to the election
Did Collins and Bennett go at each other in the corridors of parliament? Huh?
Is Paora Goldsmith back in Parliament via list seat on this poll?
Hoping not, dream result would be him scrapping with the rent boy party for Epsom
All those great ministers like Twyford, Clark and Galloway will have a chance to shine so bright again.
Clark has done well, his Ministry is the envy of the world in spite of a few slips.
Galloway is doing fine in difficult times.
Twyford found the convoluted rules stymied him along with hugely expensive supply lines, not to mention his frienemy Winston.
I prefer them to Woodhouse and Goldsmith, such bitter spiteful faces, and time wasters!! Muller with his deer in the headlights expression when asked for policy.
Amy needs to get busy. Oh and those wordy hoardings that don't say sqat lol lol
Let's hope it's a dead cat bounce and Lab support holding at 50 despite two weeks of hyperbolic derangement in the media signifies some sort of permanent shift in public consciousness. Unlikely maybe – but we can hope.
More likely it's just that Ardern incarnates the mood of the times in a way that Muller can't. He is too like the domineering boss many of us have left our jobs at one time or another to get away from – too insistent that he is always right, over-fond of tired regurgitations of conventional wisdom, not half as knowledgeable or talented as he imagines.
Don't hear that saying much.
Very true. There is very little to like about the Nat MPs. They have read the Nation wrong. I also think that their lack of policies is a huge Achilles Heel. Attack politics is not being a good opposition: you need to challenge with logic and provide alternatives. MPs must represent the people of NZ not their own personal agendas.
No surprise … expected Muller to debut around early to mid teens.
Given the ever-increasing importance of leadership attributes in determining voting behaviour … a new Opposition Leader really needs to be debuting in the 20s or 30s in the Preferred PM stakes and to appear at least reasonably competitive with the PM if they're to have any chance of victory.
Here are new Oppo Leader debuts in the Colmar Brunton Preferred PMs this century:
Initial Preferred PM rating for each new Oppo Leader:
(with ratings of rival – ie the PM at the time – in parentheses … eg Key debuts on 27% as new Oppo Leader with PM Clark on 32% in same Poll)
First, the 2 successful new Oppo Leaders:
Key 27% (vs Clark 32%) … Clark 5 point lead
Ardern 30% (vs English 30%) … Equal
Second, the unsuccessful in chronological order:
English 21% (vs Clark 41%) … Clark 20 point lead
Brash 15% (vs Clark 36%) … Clark 21 point lead
Goff 6% (vs Key 51%) … Key 45 point lead
Shearer 11% (vs Key 48%) … Key 37 point lead
Cunliffe 12% (vs Key 42%) … Key 30 point lead
Little 12% (vs Key 41%) … Key 29 point lead
Bridges 10% (vs Ardern 37%) … Ardern 27 point lead
Muller 13% (vs Ardern 54%) … Ardern 41 point lead
Thanks Swordfish very good.
Yes thanks Swordfish. A few facts will upset the Opposition though. And we don't want to upset them do we?
Everything has its time, and so will any party in power to mitigate extremes – at least we hope so. Reality check: pendulum swinging wildly left to right.
Its time to actually reinvent the political scene to make room for a different approach that is inclusive and has input from the generation that has to be content with all the systemic failures that no one wants to touch: low income, housing, land degradation, water pollution (and syphoning drinking water out of the ground for the mighty $!). What is work and how do we cope with an ever increasing robotics environment that will leave millions behind?
Ideas from anybody? No of cause not. Just focus on mud slinging, works every time.
Reinvent the political scene! The sooner the better. Things, people are unravelling. Nick Smith going loopy, loony tunes.
Parliament's longest-serving MP Nick Smith accused the government of being a "Nazi establishment'' in the House last night as he was removed from the chamber by the Serjeant-at-Arms.
Earlier in the day during Question Time, Smith – who has been an MP since 1990 and is known as the father of the House – was made to leave the chamber by Speaker Trevor Mallard after claims he was bias towards the government.
Once ejected an MP isn't allowed to return until the Speaker says, but it's understood Smith came back into the House on at least two other occasions during the evening, and it was on his third return that Deputy Speaker of the House and Labour MP Adrian Rurawhe asked him to leave.
This was after Labour's senior whip, Michael Wood, raised a point of order with Rurawhe that Smith was in the chamber when he shouldn't be.
I draw the attention of commenters to the book about patterns of human behaviour written in the 1960s, and which has been sadly neglected from ordinary education which should include more on human psychology and culture than the weeny bit now. The Games that People Play written by Eric Berne would be very instructive for all of us and would help children as well, and cut bullying right down.
It would be interesting for people to read it and identify which one that N Smith is playing. Of course he may have incipient alzheimers – he is getting on, being the father of the house. I think National are playing – 'Why Don't You.. Yes But' now.
They criticise actions, they note faults – Why Don't You?. Labour say okay we must fix that and do so. But National then responds with 'Yes But' – it's not enough, it should have been done earlier, it shows how incompetent you are, etc. The object is to win and put Labour in the wrong, which we know about already and this game shows how it is done.
Example from a teaching session: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPaClwd0W5w
One Review of book. 'Should b taught in every school. Society as a whole would benefit (as long as everyone who reads it understands the language) Times change, but people don't. Over 5 decades, everything I learned from this book has held true'
Another is Debtor which brings up an interesting question about the way materialism establishes our life purpose:
We have resisted mud slinging, as that is not PM Ardern's way.
We hope a working majority will see a new more transformative phase of government with even more emphasis on kindness and community.
A pandemic affects everyone worldwide. The way forward is as a team helping each other, respecting each other. The way the National Leader gained the Leadership matters, as do his beliefs.
So far we have learned that he considers smaller businesses are able to survive 3 months with unpaid accounts, (Fonterra) while larger businesses are not able to do this without open borders. (Bubble with Australia and return of overseas students.)
He believes rumours and does not expect his ministers to prove their stories before he backs them. (Woodhose Homeless person)
He thinks the Minister of Health should have been popping into Hospitals through the covid Lock Down, and visiting quarantine facilities. What???? How dangerous is that??
He thinks that although we have no community transmission evident for two cycles of infection, we do have community transmission, because the fellow who wanted Ashley's job said we have.
He thinks Hooten will give him valuable advice.
He thinks our reponse to covid-19 is a "National Disgrace". Yet our position is the envy of many countries who can only dream of no community transmission.
Granted we became too comfortable and should have tested returnees more. This is now being done with strict protocols. Now no one should leave their 14 day stay without a test.
Those calling this a failure are trying to destroy public confidence in PM Ardern with myths and exaggeration. To qote the late great John Clarke, "We don't know how lucky we are"
And I think NZ is the only country using tests before leaving containment. A bit hard to be criticised by some for "failed" test therefore. Most are still using 14 days containment as the gold standard.
My comment was not towards the pandemic as this is indeed a worldwide issue and in that sense we all sitting in the same boot.
What I have alluded to is : where to from here? If large corps see this as the "perfect" opportunity to lay off staff en mass surely our elected government can react and rethink strategic planning.
I don't see any plan or any idea even in infancy. Debate possibilities, let Kiwis participate, get involved in their future.
Those who operate like John Key, "Never waste a crisis" and shed staff will not do so well on the rebound. The Government plan is to keep workers attached to their work where possible. Most businesses are trying to do that. World wide entities are suffering in other jurisdictions so they are cutting out their distant branches. That may affect us, but equally this is the place where life is closer to normal, everyone will want a piece of that, including ex-pats.
The plan is tto keep the virus out of the general community, so we can redirect workers from failing areas to needed infrastructure. Communities working together to keep people fed and sheltered and if possible earning is our best chance to become a sustainable digital caring society. It is going to be hard mahi for at least 2 years…