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Daily review 08/10/2020

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, October 8th, 2020 - 63 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

63 comments on “Daily review 08/10/2020 ”

  1. weka 1

    If I haven't found something else to do by 7pm, or I don't forget, I might just watch this to see what Shaw does with the competition.

  2. ScottGN 2

    Just got a fundraising email from Labour telling me that regardless of the poll tonight the election will be close. Now I don’t know whether to be relieved or worried?

    • The Al1en 2.1

      Hopefully if they know the result today, which they normally do with polls when they gauge party leaders reaction for the 30 second soundbite on the news, it means labour are still miles ahead and they’re just filling the coffers and getting the anti complacency vote out.

      Not long to find out.

  3. Leighton 3

    No change between the left and right blocs. National and Greens both down 1 point. Labour and Act unchanged. NZ First still competing for attention with TOP and the lunatic fringe. Nothing Judith is doing is convincing National voters who crossed to Labour to go back. The real issue now is whether the Greens can keep their head above water. I tend to think they will but it is too close for comfort.

  4. Dennis Frank 4

    So the leaders debates had no effect. JC's dog-whistling had no effect. Maori Party failed to even get 1%. Neocons & nutters have parity out on the fringe. NZF still no traction.

  5. Muttonbird 5

    I just listened to Heather Duplicity-Allan interview her father, Barry Sober, about the CB poll. They both tried very hard to paint this as a failure for Labour and the Greens. This despite the poll showing Labour either governing alone in the case of the GP not making it, and governing with the GP should they make it. There are no other possibilities.

    Barry Sober then referenced JA's drop in preferred PM from 54% to 50% by claiming as relevant a Herald digipoll in 2014 showing Jon Key at 60%!

    The reckons of these two and their bank accounts need to be looked at by the Electoral Commission.

    smiley

    • Barfly 5.1

      Ouch that burnt yes

    • observer 5.2

      As was pointed out last time they tried that comparison, the Herald poll factored out don't knows (so the total was 100%). The CB poll doesn't (to see this, just add up the numbers). It's comparing basketball points with netball.

      • Muttonbird 5.2.1

        Yeah, there’s obviously a lot of pillow-talk collusion between the two about how they are going to attack. Their off and on air relationship is a real threat to democracy in my opinion.

  6. observer 6

    I'm actually quite impressed with the NZ public. Sure, I'd like even more support for both Labour and the Greens, but the real message from the polls is that there are two different worlds: Planet Hype and Planet Voter.

    On Planet (Media) Hype everyone is reacting every day to all the latest headlines: who won the debate? who did a gaffe? which announcement is a "game changer"? what does the poll say? are voters changing their minds every 5 minutes?

    On Planet Voter they just decide who they want to vote for, and the vast majority stick with their choice, and many have already put it in the ballot box.

    No change in Colmar Brunton poll, no invented surge to entertain bored commentators who should be doing sport, not elections. Good.

    • woodart 6.1

      yes, paid experts should be given the boot . get out and pick fruit you bloody parasites! hoskings and his partner and duplicious alien and her dad need to" get a haircut and a real job" (george thorogood)

    • halfcrown 6.2

      I agree with that 200% Take tonights TVNZ news this female came on stating that Labour will need the greens to form a government and Arderns shine was going off with a massive drop in support (That is my interpretation of what she said).

      A disaster I thought Collins and National have had a massive surge in support along with Rimmer.

      No such thing, Ardern has dropped by 4%( don’t want any drop) to 50% and Labour are still on 47% no change. I cannot see any difference to their rating since the last poll and why she had to state (disaster) that Labout needed the Greens to form a Government, something we already knew.

      Collins is still on 27% and National dropped by 1%.

      I am surprised she didn't state that National was now on a roll as they have only dropped by 1% vs Arderns drop of 4% and Collins was still on 27% with no further drop.

  7. weka 7

    • weka 7.1

      Still looking good for the left. Just need a few more lefties to choose Green instead of Labour and we might get a centre left govt to be proud of and that will act on climate change.

      • xanthe 7.1.1

        Well i really hope they do not make the threshhold this time! Their campaign strategy of take votes off labour whilst promoting themselves as "partner" is dishonest. They need to replace marama with some person of integrety and charisma. They present as deluded, self important, entitled, and self serving

    • Muttonbird 7.2

      Where is ACT going to find 11 sane people to fill those seats?

  8. millsy 8

    Good result. Been worrying about it all day.

    Difficult to see the numbers changing in a big way now.

  9. ScottGN 10

    Anyone else thinking of all those pundits (mostly clapped out National and ACT apparatchiki) who were sure Labour’s vote was soft and would head back to National once the campaign started? No, me neither.

  10. Muttonbird 11

    If I'm right there's probably one more poll, or round of polls?

  11. Alan 12

    greens will be nervous

    • observer 12.1

      You'll need to vote Labour then. All Right-thinking people must save NZ from the Greens, and forget National's sunk ship. Logical, no?

    • Muttonbird 12.2

      I think you are just repeating what Heather and her father told you on ZB.

  12. ScottGN 13

    “No pathway to victory for National.”

    How good does that sound?

    • observer 13.1

      Be funny if they bailed on Collins now and begged Winston to be the "handbrake".

      • Muttonbird 13.1.1

        For this to be successful it would require a swing to NZF, in one week, of about 80,000 to 100,000 votes, no?

        • Craig H 13.1.1.1

          Last time 2,591,896 party votes were cast, so the threshold was 129,595 votes. This CB poll has them at 2%, so they would need another 3% = 77,757 votes. With a higher turnout even if just from population growth, 80,000 to 100,000 is an excellent estimate.

    • Muttonbird 13.2

      No. Pathway.

      It's over for Wong Tung. Chucky is walking to her political grave, thank God.

      Arise, Denise Lee.

  13. Anker 14
    • ? Greens nervous
    • but National will be sobbing into their pinot
  14. Muttonbird 15

    This is like a cricket One Day International. If there's a dominant side, the closer you get to the finish, the more certain the result becomes.

    And the socially responsible left has wickets in hand.

  15. halfcrown 16

    I have just seen Rimmer on the TV. Why is he allowed out without the "H" on his forehead? Should be a law against that.

  16. Dennis Frank 17

    I'm surprised at how well JLR is presenting. Seymour's sounding reasonable. All have been tight & well-behaved actually.

    • Muttonbird 17.1

      Rimmer has got serious. When he was at 0.64%, anything went. Now, having vacuumed the rotting dregs of the post Key National Party he suddenly has to look grown up and less student.

      • woodart 17.1.1

        yes, funs over for tinydancer. he will have to put on bigboy pants now. no more caucas meetings playing with,er by himself.

        • greywarshark 17.1.1.1

          Here's the guy who can handle the tiny dancer and with a better jacket too. He's got real style in every way that the other can never come near.

      • fender 17.1.2

        Wish a journalist would get serious and ask that prick why he hates the lowest paid so much that he wants to freeze their pay rate for three years.

        • Muttonbird 17.1.2.1

          And cut benefits, because he feels they need to tighten their belt???

          indecision

        • Craig H 17.1.2.2

          To avoid them losing jobs would be at least one answer. I don't believe that it would do that any more than anyone else does, but it's typical of their claptrap.

  17. Adrian 18

    Mutch-=McKay really doesn't know what she is talking about , if Labour got 47% to Nat?Act 40 and the Greens miss out ( which I doubt will happen ) surely the final washup gives Labour well over 50% of seats available because they are 7% ahead which is probably 10 seats. Am I wrong?

    • Andre 18.1

      That's correct, if the Greens miss out.

      But she may be referring to the situation if the Greens get back in. Their seat count gives Labour 60 seats if the Greens get back in, one short of a majority. Then they would need to have some kind of arrangement with the Greens.

      • Grafton Gully 18.1.1

        A WEALTH TAX arrangement perhaps ? New Green votes from poor people should help.

      • Uncle Scrim 18.1.2

        Yes logically a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement. But even without either or those, Labour could on those numbers govern alone as a minority government with the Greens on the cross benches, as long as the Greens don't join Nat and ACT and vote no confidence, which of course they wouldn't do.

    • woodart 18.2

      much-ado is trying to remain relevant.

  18. greywarshark 19

    Give Sir Kimj Workman a noble prize. People like him and Celia Laslie are up there with the tops in our country.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427908/correcting-corrections-are-prison-reforms-repairing-maori-inequities

    …Sir Kim says the focus needs to be on ensuring fewer Māori end up in prison in the first place. He says changes to the Bail Act brought in under National in 2013 have driven up the number of Māori on remand.

    "The problem was that the remand prisons became a major recruiting ground for the gangs and we had young Māori ending up in there, for the first time often, getting bashed up by the gangs and threatened if they didn't join."

    Justice Minister Andrew Little criticised this law in 2018, but no action was taken…

  19. Janet 20

    Seems that the Advance party has been rewarded for their irresponsible anti-lockdown rally with thousands of people . I am angry that all minor parties were not invited onto tonight's debate. SO UNFAIR !

    • Anne 20.1

      Nonsense. The other parties are all polling below 1% . That is why they weren't invited. There has to be a threshold otherwise every Tom, Dick, Harry and a smattering of raving lunatics would have to be invited.

      Then, nobody would bother to watch.

      • Janet 20.1.1

        Those polling the same or more than Advance include the New Conservative and TOP

        • Anne 20.1.1.1

          If you say so. I can't be bothered to check.

          So, that must mean those who poll below 2% are not eligible to be included.

  20. Scud 21

    Drove into Darwin NT with the kids this morning to vote I was hoping to give NZ Labour 2 ✔️. But I haven’t seen NZL’s Defence or Veterans Policy for this election, so I guess NZL don’t give a shit about us these days & looks like the NZDF & Veterans budget will be cut over the next 3yrs then?

    Also i didn’t vote Green either

    1, I’m over ID politics & sometimes I my 4x Great Uncle Nye Bevan was still around have the Greens an education on the less privilege classes,

    2, Did bugger all on NZ Veterans welfare as they some pretty good policies for Veterans btw,

    3, Complaining about the new C130J’s and saying the AirNZ’s 787’s would’ve been cheaper WTF Golriz. Try landing one of those wee beasties into Dili Airport. The L101 Tristar Jet in 99 could just barely make into Dili, same same for the RNZAF B757 in 06 and the RAAF C17 landed there in 06. But had to reverse back the runway in order to take off again or else if it turned on the runway they would’ve rip the runway up in the process. No doubt she would complain about the Navies new purpose built Landing Ship and the Southern Ocean Patrol Ship as well as both of these won’t cheap either the NZG the NZDF won’t get much change out of NZD 1.5B.

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