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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, December 15th, 2021 - 56 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Unleash the COVID KRAKEN
That which should not be spoken:
The real government Strategy perchance?:
Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
Possible consequences of strategy
Benefits:
Dis-benefits
It will be interesting to see how the competing benefits / dis benefits will sum up on the ledger of life
Have we ensured testing and controls in place for the vulnerable around NZ INC are enough?
Good luck NZInc
One question remains: Is it now still the pandemic of the unvaccinated?
“RNZ:
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
The government's modelling expects up to 50 percent of the Covid-19 cases could be in vaccinated people, according to a Cabinet paper from 15 November. That is with vaccination rates of 90 percent, of which Auckland is above.
Another 25 percent of cases could be in under 12 year olds, the paper said.
This means around 75 percent of Covid-19 cases could be carried across the border by those not needing to be tested in order to leave.”
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/457933/auckland-border-testing-may-only-catch-a-quarter-of-cases-govt-report
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
Ormicron makes alot of that moot as it seems a double vax doesnt really stop it at all…
There were early study reports out of south africia yesterday.
Massively reduces the probability of going to hospital with ormicron compared to not having a double vax ~70% better.
Significantly reduces the probability of becoming symptomatic to the sniffles and voughing stage after you get it – about ~33%
Doesn't change the probability of getting covid-19 – just as it didn't for alpha, beta or delta. Everyone has about a 100% probility of getting each covid-19 variant eventually.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
These are vaccines pushed out in a couple of years. It usually takes decades or even centuries to develop to the point of being sterilising vaccines – ones that massively reduce the probability of infection.
Basically if you are that into wanting miracle cures – then perhaps you should try prayer. Whining to a god appears to have worked miracles in previous pandemics by filling empty mass graves.
I'll take my percentages of advantage where they are more reliable and documented.
3/4s of those in hospital in S.A are unvaccinated (Omicron ).In the US republicans are dying 7 to 1 with c.f democrats becoz of the Dons bullshit
Huh, that's a new bit of information. So chances of getting the same variant is reduced to varying degrees (and for varying periods of time) if one has already had it. But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
It isn't new.
I'd have to look it up, but late last year there were early reports of people in the UK who'd had alpha, then getting beta. The same kinds of reports came from other regions. And for delta after having other variants as well.
There was at least one US study earlier this year that looked at the probabilities of severity of a reinfection from last years variants that in part allowed for the underlying probabilities of severity. That indicated that previous infection partially reduced the risk of severity. But that was presumably after getting enough viral load to overwhelm existing immune responses to the point where people were symptomatic…
Why, there has been quite a lot of work that shows having had a infection strongly reduces the probability of symptomatic reinfection by another variant (pre-delta). As does vaccination.
However as far as I am aware there has been little to no research that shows pre-infection strongly reduces re-infection – probably because the early detection is based on the duration of viral load. The early immune responses from vaccinations or previous infection tend to reduce the time of viral shedding – which reduces the detection period.
Looking at b-cell or t-cells that persist after infections doesn't help because you can't tell for sure which variant they were induced by.
From my understanding, all you can say is that the chance of being symptomatic by a reinfection or a break through by a variant over a vaccinated are reduced markedly. But they were never 100%. With Pfizer they were ~90%+ for reinfection by delta. With omnicron, it is looking like ~70%. There was and still is a lot of dispute over the same figures for reinfection – but it is generally estimated to be lower or similar – but more variable.
A reinfection by a variant that doesn't trigger the learned immediate immune responses increases the probability of becoming symptomatic because the viral load gets higher earlier. However the slower immune responses from previous infection or vaccination tend to limit the severity.
That appears to be what is happening with omnicron. Compared to delta… High infection and reinfection rates. High rates of early symptoms. Less probability of severe symptoms.
Um… my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
I'll leave the prayer to you thanks.
That is obvious – also not my point. It is the nature of infectious diseases to spread. It is the same with Delta, Beta, and Alpha. All that changes is the rate of infection, the morbidity, and the severe consequences between variants.
In my view both statements are duplicitous lies by omission. Stop or slow what? The vaccines were never intended to stop infection. The vaccines are designed for and are still offering significiant protection against the more severe consequences of getting infected or even of just mild symptoms. If that wasn’t your point – then I strongly suggest that you need to review how you word your statements.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
The current vaccines were intended to reduce the incidence of significiant symptoms leading to hospitalisations, implicitly long covid and death. Outside of the ranks of wishful thinkers and mystics and believers in herd immunity from endemic diseases, I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
My point was that your wishful ‘thinking’ of the vaccines preventing or limiting spread was completely wrong. There hasn’t been a sterilising vaccine or treatment produced for covid-19 yet. That will be a task that will probably take decades.
The wide use of the vaccines will prevent health systems collapsing because less people will get sick enough to chew of health resources. That means that some of the social measures like lockdowns, masks, international travel, social distancing, etc can be reduced.
Your original point was
The problem with omnicron is that its spread rate, ability to reinfect, and ability to breakthrough infect vaccinated will increase hospital loads through volume – which is what you referred to.
However being vaccinated still reduces the risk to any one person of getting severe consequences from being infected compared to the risk of the unvaccinated.
Your second statement was…
Just as much of lie.
The vaccines were never intended to stop infection.
They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction
Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial.
I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
So why the mandates?
Why are those of us who chose not to partake of these non sterilizing 'vaccines' which don't prevent spread now out of work, unable to go camping, unable to go to a restaurant, unable to participate to the fullest in everyday life?
Why do those who have been double vaccinated need to be kept safe from those of us who haven't been?
Asking respectfully for a friend.
As I discussed with you before.
If you aren't vaccinated, the probability of being infected and becoming symptomatic is higher than for the vaccinated.
The probability of the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised is far far higher than for the vaccinated. The probability of dying is higher again.
While the vaccinated are a bit less likely to infect others (shorter viral shedding periods) – that isn't what the vaccines were designed or tested for. But there are way more vaccinated than unvaccinated, therefore the probability of an unvaccinated person being infected by someone who is vaccinated is higher.
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of.
Or as I'd state it in my rough way – I'd hate to unintentionally kill someone just because they were daft or ignorant enough to offload their risk on to me. Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason.
Both are reasons to make sure that I am separated from people of shedding risk fro arbitrary reasons of to anyone who carefully reduces their risk. It is exactly the same logic as is used in trying to reduce public drunkenness, drunken driving, people waving weapons around and firing them off without thinking about unforeseen consequences, people dropping poisons into public waterways etc etc
Exactly how many times do I have to explain this to you?
Severity of illness less for vaccinated than unvaccinated. Yup. Chances of winding up in hospital or dying, for people with not too many years under their belt and with no co-morbidities, pretty minimal – whether vaccinated or not.
Vaccination makes no discernible difference in how contagious a person is. (Faster shedding equates to being more infectious but for a shorter timespan than an unvaccinated person)
Seems that excess all cause mortality rates spike when vaccine rollouts commence…
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of. ?
Hang on, I thought it was the unvaccinated chewing up the medical resources? I guess excluding the minority that are unvaccinated just might prevent a few catching Te Virus from a vaccinated person…?
Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason. ?
But you have done the right thing and had both your shots and therefore your risk of symptomatic infection is really low and since the majority of the folks around you are also double jabbed then surely the risk to you from the small number of unjabbed in your vicinity is negligible?
I'm not sure how vaccination status relates to being tested (or not)?
Are you saying the unjabbed are less likely to be tested than the jabbed? Have you proof of this? From what I am hearing the jabbed don't get tested because they truly believe the Pfizer Product prevents infection. "No, its ok it's only a cold because I'm vaccinated."
And as for risk…are you keeping up with the latest on the risk of heart damage from the mRNA products? Because the trumpeted risk of less than one person in a million people who have had Comirnaty vaccine in the European Union is now reported as being much, much higher.
. In Israel, where only BNT162b2 vaccines were used following the
product monograph with a 21 day inter-dose interval, the rate of myocarditis (using the BC definition)
following dose two among males 16-19 was 150 per 1,000,000 between December 2020 and May 2021,
although this time period encompassed both active and passive surveillance periods. 2 The rate of
myocarditis/pericarditis among males aged 12-17 who received two doses of BNT162b2 at an interval of
30 days or less in Ontario was similar at 159.7 per million doses. In the United Kingdom (UK), the
reporting rate for myocarditis after both first and second doses across all ages was estimated at 10 per
million doses of BNT162b2
As yet I have seen no update from our enormously efficient Ministry of Health that indicates they are actually keeping up. They will, when the true picture emerges of the harms done….. claim what? "We didn't know." ?
You might think it is worth the risk of being in that 10 in 1000000 group of all ages who suffer heart damage from the vaccine…being a mature person with a bit of a dodgy ticker anyway…but do you really believe that a young man with a strong, healthy heart should be mandated to take a product that could put him into the 94.5 or 159 cases per 1000000 doses risk category? (In case you're not keeping up…that is a little more than the 6 in a million doses Pertousis-Harris quotes here.)
Because that's what happening here in New Zealand. And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
Especially not the children and young people.
Young Kiwis are having te vaccine forced on them? Ghastly! Hope Neve gets an exemption. Imagine using “young people” to fight your battles.
The "Pfizer product" is safe (compare, for example, the 320 Kiwis who died on NZ roads in 2020 – "Make it click"), and effective. It certainly (not "probably") lowers the risk of death or severe distress due to Covid-19 infection. Lest we forget, according to Prof. Benn (thanks for that link) vaccines are "the largest untapped resource for improving health globally", and 8.55 billion doses of vaccines against Covid-19 have been administered worldwide.
Agree 100% – I wasn't prepared to deal with the consequences of choosing not to get jabbed (including the potential health consequences of being unvaccinated if/when I'm infected with Covid-19), but good luck to the few hardy and/or brave individuals who are.
Aotearoa NZ has one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world (more than 200 times lower than the UK and US, and at least 100 times lower than Sweden, Ireland and Germany) – we really don't know how lucky we are!
How awful it would have been if those 48 tragic NZ Covid deaths had been 4800, or 9600. Thanks to the team's high Covid-19 vaccination rates (~90% of those eligible), that's now unlikely – something to be grateful for, you would think.
Unite against
COVID-19
https://covid19.govt.nz
https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-37.asp
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
And if you took the time to check out the paper from Ontario regarding myo and pericarditis you might just gain an insight into why it is that the vax rates are so low in the US. Clue…Moderna was heavily pushed, and a combination of Pfizer and Moderna. The rates are eye watering.
As I have asked many times…if Covid is so totally terrifying and the bodies were piling up hither and thither and there were safe and effective vaccines to stem the tide of death don't you think everyone would be trampling over each over to get a shot? They were…they they had to be cajoled, threatened, mandated.
For heaven's sake…instead of pushing slogans….think about why so many worldwide are 'vaccine' hesitant.
Your medsafe.govt.nz link details many "adverse effects", from common and mild, to rare and serious. Your "dismissing and denying" stance rather puts you in the denial camp – "complete denial", imho.
Let’s agree to disagree about the benefits and risks associated with te vaccine – glad I got it, feel safer for it, but that’s just me. If it’s any consolation, I support your choice not to get Pfizered, and wish you well.
If the vaccine reduces the chances of getting covid, then isn't slowing spread a secondary benefit because the number of people getting covid (and thus spreading it) is reduced?
For the Labour caucus to have approved that strategy there would need to be a document trail that includes the MoH and the Director General of Health. Do you think that it's more likely that,
a) such a paper trail exists and is being kept hidden but could be leaked at any time
or
b) Labour really are following public health advice and placing that in the context of managing the economy (in its neoliberal way).
Afaik there's not good evidence yet that herd immunity from infection is possible/useful. Further, delta is dangerous. Omicron or a later variant might change that but at the moment I don't think what you are suggesting would work.
I think it's much more likely that Labour are doing the best they can stuck between the delta rock and the economy hard place (and the restless population other hard place)
It's clear that elimination from hard lock downs is no longer possible.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Everyone on the planet is having to make this up as we go along. Novel virus, there is still a lot we don't know, especially how this is going to play out over time. Incredibly hard to govern under those conditions including making educated decisions based on things we just don't know.
If you can think of a better way forward other than hard lock downs, I'd like to hear that. Myself, I think they should keep the international border closed to people other than returning Kiwis. I think people wanting to come and go from NZ should be in two week MiQ. And we wait to see what Omicron does before opening the borders more than that. The Traffic Light systems seems as good a plan as any for internally, except for the specific problems that some communities face eg Māori in some areas. That needs addressing as a matter of urgency.
Colonial racism in cabinet is a simpler explanation for their decisions than a conspiracy is.
lol, yes that too.
Do you think the Māori caucus argued against the plan, or went along with it out of pragmatics?
Who knows? Maybe their silence was the price for begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts over the last couple of months..
…begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts …
And a good deal of that funding has gone towards various 'incentives' in the form of cash cards and vouchers and meat packs. Free sausage sizzles and barbies and the like. A little patronising…no?
It says something that these are the bribes required to get needles in the arms of the section of our community that rides low on every socio-economic marker. At least that is how it has largely played out up here in the FFN. You'd think that the endless 'mate korona' messaging and recollections of the dreadful toll of the Spanish Flu would have been sufficient to get the sleeves rolled up.
I hazard that there would have been more willing buy in had successive governments won the trust of whanau in Te Tai Tokerau by addressing more of the deeper deprivation issues. Funding for housing and $$$ for stemming the shit tide at Northland Base Hospital is a little late.
And despite the $$$…we're still in the naughty corner, and a quick cruise around the vax tents in Kaitaia today saw very bored looking workers.
Or maybe even this govt hesitated to blatantly mass prioritise health care based on skin colour?
Nothing could be more obviously racist than this – and would stand them condemned as repellent as anything the apartheid era threw up.
it's not skin colour (there are Māori who look white), it's ethnicity, because in NZ and the way we organise society Māori ethnicity is related to a range of risks that Pākehā don't have as a class.
It's also possible that Māori have vulnerabilities related to genetics too (haven't seen any discussion of this but we know that they were particularly vulnerable to new viral infections during colonisation).
Gobsmaking to have to explain this on a labour movement blog to lefties.
You're the one that's hung up on race Red, and that's nothing to do with what I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
If there is a specific medical argument to be made then make it. But if it's just 'subjugated' – then no.
The sooner we stop dividing each other up and setting everyone against each other on stupid spurious grounds, the more likely we are to function as a healthy society.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Someone made that statement on another international site the other day and was challenged. No one could recall at what point it was "on the cards" that more than two doses would be needed, but it was generally agreed that it was not "always".
Can you pinpoint where you became certain that boosters would be needed? My recollection is that it was very much a two dose deal with Pfizer. The booster/3rd dose was initially only for immunosupressed./compromised. As it eventuated that the Pfizer Product was largely useless after 6 months, (Israel…) rolled out boosters.
But I don't recall it was always going to be third shots or boosters.
Might be a semantic difference. By on the cards I meant there was always a chance that the two shots would be insufficient. Pretty sure I’ve been saying right from the start that I was doubtful that there would be a silver bullet vaccine. I remember conversations last year with science-is-god people, who had a huge amount of faith in medical science to solve covid.
it’s a fair question though. Haven’t they know since trials though that there is waning immunity? And of course, the perceived need for booster shots is as much about how the pandemic is playing out. I honestly don’t think anyone can predict what’s going to happen, am sceptical of people who try and assert predictions, and pay more attention to people saying this is the state of play and based on that this is what I think is most likely to happen.
I wouldn’t want to be in government or high up in MoH trying to make major decisions under such circumstances.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/upset-hone-harawira-claims-police-vetted-iwi-led-checkpoint-group-members.html
Umm … Hone, e hoa, Gang Members? Really? Come off the grass, bro.
Have you seen the gang involvement in the protests? We need people who get the culture to get them on board with covid harm minimisation.
The Head Hunters can stop your car first.
What's more likely:
a) The collective organising the check points have found selected gang leader to be part of the team
or
b) Harawira lets the Head Hunters run one of the check points.
Do you actually know or are just making that up?
Not trying to be smart here, I'd actually like to know what the gang involvement is.
The whole gangs are irredemiably evil shit and should always and forever be shunned is getting tedious.
'The whole gangs are irredemiably evil shit and should always and forever be shunned is getting tedious.'
Yes they and yes they should
that's how you perpetuate gangs.
Remember to let them know where you came from and how long you expect to be away, just to be helpful
Hone Harawira gets the legislation he wants rushed through under urgency last week, gets the checkpoints he whined about, gets the negative proof just today of a small handful of non-double vaxxers trying to enter out of tens of thousands, and then tries to tell off the Police for not letting gang members pull over cars and interrogate the public.
His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from or at very least concentrate their efforts on the morons in the far north causng the issue in the first place: the unvaccinated.
The roadblocks will stop shortly. Good job.
Hone Harawira will fade from TV profile again. Good job.
Hone is doing a lot more and investing a lot more of his time in an effort to keep folk safe than you Ad. Sounds like your the fuckwit.
Tru dat, he a busy bro for da right reasons, but he also likes to ensure he stays in da news. Not one to hide his light under a bushell. Don’t make no sense having gang members on the checkpoints.
Gang members have developed bad habits of organising criminal activity, shooting at police, & at other gang members, & too many like to monster & intimidate people & other gangs. Best thing is to at least vet the buggers for any with a track record of these propensities.
Hone knows that. He’s keeping his profile high with nga iwi & nga Māori elsewhere, like a modern day Hone Heke. Imo.
" His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from "
Aint that the truth!
100% agree
Gangs are growing where are they going to live ,They all can't live in your place of work PR.
No govt has stopped gangs they are a symtom of our selfish society.
When you have look at the state inquiry into child abuse by the Church and State the number of gang members especially gang leaders created from that level of sexual , violent abuse ,neglect neglect of education neglect of a safe environment,neglect of love.
You can see why criminal gangs prolificate with members who have no empathy or ability to change nasty intergenerational dysfunction.
The dept of corrections is a joke just a temporary warehouse where criminals learn to be better criminals the nastier criminal you are gives a promotion in the hierarchy .prisons are the Head Office of the gangs.
only takes one.
Is it voluntary or paid …work?
Don't know. There may be some government koha involved. There may be some kind of authorisation by the police required to give legal power to these individuals to stop cars and demand documents or evidence from the occupants.
Luxon complaining on One news that Grant just wants to spend money, after Grant said health needs a lot more money spent on it. “ We’re not wasting money on the health system “ has a real vote winning ring to it!
Yea, with the nodding head of Bridges shows how austerity politics will be back on the Nats playbook
Yes the old 'they are irresponsible ,spend,spend,spend….we are a safe pair of hands,sound economic managers….same , reliable theme .
The people of the Freedom and Choice group and the NZ Outdoors Party are entitled to their particular beliefs. Sort of like people are entitled to their mental health problems.
When it ends in things like this?
"A Covid-19 testing station in Richmond, near Nelson, has been closed indefinitely after abuse of staff reached unsafe levels.
Police were called to the testing site at the Richmond Showgrounds on Sunday after staff were subjected to verbal attacks from a small group of people who did not believe Covid was a threat, Nelson Bays Primary Health general manager Charlotte Etheridge said."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127290738/covid19-testing-station-closed-after-threats-to-staff-escalate
The Herald mischief making.
A headline claiming the police are going to lose at least 600 frontline police officers due to the decision to mandate staff vaccinations turns out to be the claim of one anonymous unvaccinated police officer. Near the bottom you get to find out the Commissioner plus a few others high rankers have rejected the claim outright:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/police-warn-of-major-repercussions-as-unvaxxed-officers-face-being-stood-down/BC6Z6D2HFSLU4ZXFLKXWT6KMJ4/
fuck that's low even for te herald.
Finance Minister delivers a win for the Greens:
It's local democracy vs national democracy. I counted 12 mayors in the protest.
So the protestors represent less than a quarter of the nation.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/three-waters-mayors-coalition-hopes-to-unchain-reforms-talk-about-alternatives/DVG2QIOYVDBBRKQONO3FKJAMBU/
Not all mayor's go to protests I think you will find that most mayor's are against the mandate.
Only a few green mayor's are to the fore.
Like Aron Hawkins Dunedin but he will face a public backlash as Dunedin rate payers who have forked out $100's of millions to modernize and upgrade sewage and potable water will end up paying for Auckland and Wellington's and many other municipalities.While paying $100's of millions of debt borrowed to fix Dunedin.
One of the reasons Worboys doesn't have frogs coming out of the tap is frogs live in healthy clean water. Not in the Oroua River.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300357439/iwi-dreams-of-restoring-life-force-to-its-degraded-river
Every time I read of opposition to 3 waters, opponents focus on water going in, a little quieter about the dead creeks, rivers and lakes around the motu.
Sigh.. I keep misspelling the Ormicron word. Mostly as Omnicron …. And I can't add it to the autospeller.
I must find time to work on fixing the comment editor this weekend – despite the urgent need (by someone) for Xmas shopping.
🙁
I was about to ask you, if you have some time over the holidays (😛), can you please fix the phone site so we comment and track replies on the same version (I prefer the desktop, but either would be fine). Atm I have to swap both versions as it's not possible to comment from the desktop one, and the mobile one doesn't have the Replies list and is generally harder to follow.
*Omicron
I remember it best as O+micron