Good news bad news polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: , ,

As usual, good news and bad news for the Left in the latest pair of polls.

The bad news is that Labour is down in both (albeit margin of error). The ONE News Colmar Brunton has National down 2% to 54%, and Labour down 2% to 28%. Greens are steady on 9%.  The Herald Digipoll has Labour down 0.4% to 28.7%.

The good news is that The Herald Poll also has National below 50% for the first time:

Poll shock as Nats’ support falls under 50%

National has plunged nearly five points to below 50 per cent in the past week and the smaller parties – including a fast-rising New Zealand First – are picking up support, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. …

NZ First is within striking distance of the crucial 5 per cent threshold, with just 1.3 points to get there.

While Labour has lost support, the popularity of its leader, Phil Goff, has shot up.

It is the first time National has fallen below 50 per cent in a Herald-DigiPoll survey since the last election.

It’s only one poll, but the Nats will be worried. Suddenly the incipient death of the ACT party looks like a real problem for them. So, predictably (from the same piece):

Prime Minister John Key is expected today to have a symbolic public meeting with Act Epsom candidate John Banks, who on today’s poll would take another Act MP into Parliament with him if he won the electorate seat.

If National’s polling slips further before the November 26 election, two Act MPs could become important to Mr Key forming a new government.

And at that point, things start to get pretty interesting…

44 comments on “Good news bad news polls ”

  1. Gosman 1

    So the chances of National losing this election is reliant on National slipping well below 50% and ACT, NZ First, the Maori party, and United Future getting no MP’s. Yeah I can see that is likely to happen.

    • Galeandra 1.1

      So you go so far as to hope that a changed-in-mind National-supporting Peters wins some seats then, as insurance? Your response reveals your anxieties so Rob is right, ‘the Nats will be worried.’

      • Gosman 1.1.1

        Ummmm….no. Where did I state that I hope NZ First wins some seats?

        What you fail to understand that if NZ First wins some seats he is likely to hold the balance of power. As he has stated he won’t be joining any Government and believes that the party with the most votes should attempt to form the Government it is highly improbable that Labour will be able to cobble a coalition together involving NZ First, the Greens, the Mana party, and possibly the Maori party. There is no way that National won’t be the biggest party on Election night.

      • Galeandra 1.1.2

        the chances of National losing this election is reliant on National slipping well below 50% and ACT, NZ First, the Maori party, and United Future getting no MP’s.

    • Scotty 1.2

      So can I, hatman,so can I, good sport eh,watching a dead cert get run down in the home straight

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Ex Labour MP, can’t remember his name, was talking about this on the radio this morning.

    He pointed out that the Right/Wrong direction has had the biggest change in any single week that he can remember:

    “The decline in National’s support is reflected in the drop in the percentage who believe the government is moving in the right direction – from 62.3 per cent last week to 54.7 – and a rise in the number who think it is not (36.2 per cent, compared to 30.4 per cent).”

    • Deuto 2.1

      Pretty sure it was Pete Hodgson, with ex-Act Stephen Franks as the other one. – that is if it was on Morning Report on RNZ National.

    • The Voice of Reason 2.2

      Pete Hodgson, Lanth. He was very good, I thought and Stephen Franks seemed to struggle to explain the poll result in a way that looked good for the right.

    • Hami Shearlie 2.3

      It was Pete Hodgson, the one who exposed Pansy Dun-Wong ! Interesting polls today!

    • Vicky32 2.4

      Oh, I see Deuto has already said – it was Pete Hodgson (I always prick up my ears at him, he has my family name! 😀 )

  3. ianmac 3

    Note too that our Phil has shot up to 17%. And that is in spite of the years of slagging from Key and MSM.

    • newsense 3.1

      17% ? on the Herald poll?

      All it took was a little bit of coverage and Key having to open his mouth for more than a soundbite?

  4. Olwyn 4

    The bit I found alarming was the claim that 39% of those canvassed saw the Greens as the best coalition partner for National. There is something about this that makes me sigh – as if there is a largish group of people out there who think “we want all the stuff AND the high moral ground AND all of the oxygen and to hell with the rest of you unsophisticated bozos.”

    • Bored 4.1

      Thats an acute observation Olwyn, it would appear that the message that we cant keep destroying the planet has got some grip but we all want a last drink before we are ejected from the party.

      • aerobubble 4.1.1

        There’s a growing realisation, amongst Greens and Business, that they must
        work together. Though its a myth to say National are pro-business, the
        NZ economy has held back business, rewarded family businesses
        and farmers at the expense of growing depth and breath. National
        are not a business party, they are a money party.

        Greens were always going to have to get their hands dirty. But
        Key is no partner, and I hope the Greens sit on the cross benches.
        Labour’s CGT will mean business finally gets the stress it needs
        to grow, much like a fruit tree in Otago, when they contain
        the roots and the tree select to grow more fruit to survivie.
        Essentially we need less lax law making, that typifies ACT/NAT
        government, geez, the amount of noise pollution, urban noise
        graffiti thanks to Key/Hide law to allow drivers to upgrade their
        car noise is astonishing. Quite neighbourhoods have turned into
        raceways.

    • Akldnut 4.2

      Of the 39% there may be a number disgruntled National swing voters giving preference to the Greens because they just can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour.

      If that happens it’s still good.

    • McFlock 4.3

      The talk about the greens being a coalition partner with the nats is an interesting one. While I don’t trust hippies as far as I can throw them, I don’t think that’s likely in this election (I think they were setting themselves up for a couple of elections down the line when they changed the policy).

      However, I also think that the nats fixating on Goff has led to a protest vote from the people who “just felt it was time for a change” last time, which is only reinforced by the suggestion that by voting green you’re not quite flipping the bird at that nice mr key.

      The other factor playing in is that I think there’s a section of the nat strategists that is grasping at green support on confidence&supply as way out if they don’t hit 50% of the vote. Personally I think and hope that they’re a bit deluded this time around, a bit like when Hitler was told Rooseveldt was dead he cheered up and said that the Allies would fall apart into infighting. That sort of “if X then [giving a slim chance of] Y then [giving a slim chance of] Z then [giving a slim chance of] A” so when X happens they say “Yay, now A will happen”.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    The undecided vote in the Herald poll has dropped to around 8% – I think other polls have had them at the 13-14% range. It may be that the undecided vote is “soft” left supporters now returning to left-wing parties. And Winston is just -what – 25,000 votes away from returning to Parliament with 4-5 friends with NZ First on 3.7%!

    I also think that hammering away at asset sales is really starting to work for Labour.

  6. insider 6

    It could be another one of those rouge ones

  7. chris73 7

    In my (always) humble opinion what we’ll end up with is:

    National/Act/Maori Party (and unfortunately Peter Dunne will be there)

    You all know thats whats going to happen but I do admire the way you lefties refuse to accept the inevitable

    • RedLogix 7.1

      Why bother holding elections chris? You know the outcome already.

      • chris73 7.1.1

        True, I mean Labout might win the next election and if not then they’ll win the one after

        Then after two or three elections National will get back in then it’ll be Labours turn again etc etc

        Elections do seem to be pointless and expensive, might be better to just give Labour three terms then give National three terms

        • Zaphod Beeblebrox 7.1.1.1

          Think that is one of attractions of MMP. Every government is slightly different to the last one.

  8. Blue 8

    All these journos running around like chickens with their heads cut off just because a poll finally shows what should have been obvious already, that National was never going to get over 50%.

    Honestly, I have to wonder what they get paid for some days.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 8.1

      These are the same dickheads who think Key’s slogan-led campaign is crushing Labour’s spirits. People are a lot smarter than the media give them credit for.

  9. randal 9

    rl. chris is just whistling in the dark to keep his spirits up.
    ipredict that national is about to go belly up big time.
    people have had enough of smarmy little kweewee and his siphoning off money for himself and his pals.

    • chris73 9.1

      Yes Randal my spirits have been crushed by this poll result, good thing I didn’t see the rest of the poll that shows Labour dropping

      I just don’t accept that National will lose an election this close to polling date when they haven’t done anything majorly wrong, when they’re constantly around 50% for three years, when Labour have done nothing to warrant re-election and the majority of NZ prefer John Key as PM (and don’t want Goff as PM)

      • Vicky32 9.1.1

        “I just don’t accept that National will lose an election this close to polling date when they haven’t done anything majorly wrong,”

        Lolwut?

    • Gosman 9.2

      You willing to put some money in the Ipredict markets to back that confidence up randal?

  10. In Vino Veritas 10

    Its pleasing to see so many people who have had their spirits lifted. I’m also pleased to see so many putting forward combinations and permutiations that may happen if things change. Excellent work.

  11. Corolla 11

    So the Greens are taking Labour’s vote,

    and Winnie is taking the racist vote from National?

  12. Ewout 12

    Get real guys, I’m not voting Labour or National, but the reality is National (rightly or wrongly) comes across like a new vibrant rug on the lounge floor where as Labour come across as that dirty old 70’s moth eaten rug draged up from the basment. Just an impression from a unbiased observer.

    [lprent: Newbie commentator – but feels oh so familiar. I suspect I know you. But I will let it through – perhaps you should read the policy. ]

    • The Voice of Reason 12.1

      I like the rug analogy, Ewout, but rather than on the lounge floor, I’ll think you’ll find National’s can be found two inches above John Key’s lying eyes.

      • Ewout 12.1.1

        You may be proven right, what I was commenting on was the general impression, not nessasarily the reality

  13. Ewout 13

    Sorry Iprent I do not know you nor you me as this is the fist time ever I have commented on your site or any other. But I do read regularly your blog and whale oil (arggggggghgh!) and enjoy following the comments of both.

    Regards

    Ewout

    • Dear Ewout

      If you feel that way about the slithery one then I am sure that a bit of nostalgia will not stop you from voting Labour. Back in the early 1970s things were great! Everyone had a job, there was a comprehensive social welfare system and families could survive adequately on one income earned working 40 hours a week!

      This new vibrant rug you talk about may be there for a week or so but it will quickly wear out and expose some very unfortunate things underneath sooner than you think …

      • Adele 13.1.1

        The new vibrant rug was bought from the Warehouse, parallel imported from some foreign sweat-shop. It is 100% made from a nylon substitute, and the colours are derived from dyes of vibrant toxicity. All homes should have one.

        .

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  • All good, still
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  • Lowlights & Bright Spots
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  • Weekly Roundup 14-June-2024
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  • Climate policy axed in broad daylight, while taxpayer liabilities grow in the dark
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    1 week ago
  • Rage Bait!
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    1 week ago
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  • Friendly but frank talks with China Premier
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    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2024
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    2 weeks ago
  • Join us for the weekly Hoon on YouTube Live
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  • Geoffrey Miller: China’s message to New Zealand – don’t put it all at risk
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  • Gordon Campbell on how moderates empower the political right
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  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Thursday, June 13
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  • Our guide to having your say on the draft RLTP 2024
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  • The China puzzle
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    2 weeks ago
  • Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy
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    2 weeks ago
  • Life at 20 kilometres an hour
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    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 weeks ago

  • Reserve Bank chair reappointed
    Professor Neil Quigley has been reappointed as Chair of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Board for a further term of two years, until 30 June 2026.  “Professor Quigley has played a key role in establishing the new Board after the commencement of the new RBNZ Act on 1 July ...
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  • School attendance increases
    School attendance data released today shows an increase in the number of students regularly attending school to 61.7 per cent in term one. This compares to 59.5 per cent in term one last year and 53.6 per cent in term four. “It is encouraging to see more children getting to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Record investment in public transport services
    The Government has announced a record 41 per cent increase in indicative funding for public transport services and operations, and confirmed the rollout of the National Ticketing Solution (NTS) that will enable contactless debit and credit card payments starting this year in Auckland, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“This Government is ...
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    4 days ago
  • GDP data shows need to strengthen and grow the economy
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    4 days ago
  • Women continue to make up over 50 per cent on public sector boards
    Women’s representation on public sector boards and committees has reached 50 per cent or above for the fourth consecutive year, with women holding 53.9 per cent of public sector board roles, Acting Minister for Women Louise Upston says. “This is a fantastic achievement, but the work is not done. To ...
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    4 days ago
  • Government supporting Māori business success
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    4 days ago
  • Better solutions for earthquake-prone buildings
    Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk has announced that the review into better managing the risks of earthquake-prone buildings has commenced. “The terms of reference published today demonstrate the Government’s commitment to ensuring we get the balance right between public safety and costs to building owners,” Mr Penk says.  “The Government ...
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    4 days ago
  • Prime Minister wraps up visit to Japan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has just finished a successful three-day visit to Japan, where he strengthened political relationships and boosted business links. Mr Luxon’s visit culminated in a bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio followed by a state dinner. “It was important for me to meet Prime Minister Kishida in person ...
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    4 days ago
  • Major business deals signed on PM’s Japan trip
    Significant business deals have been closed during the visit of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to Japan this week, including in the areas of space, renewable energy and investment.  “Commercial deals like this demonstrate that we don’t just export high-quality agricultural products to Japan, but also our world-class technology, expertise, and ...
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    5 days ago
  • Strategic Security speech, Tokyo
    Minasan, konnichiwa, kia ora and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for the invitation to speak to you today and thank you to our friends at the Institute for International Socio-Economic Studies and NEC for making this event possible today.  It gives me great pleasure to be here today, speaking with ...
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    5 days ago
  • National Infrastructure Pipeline worth over $120 billion
    The National Infrastructure Pipeline, which provides a national view of current or planned infrastructure projects, from roads, to water infrastructure, to schools, and more, has climbed above $120 billion, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop says. “Our Government is investing a record amount in modern infrastructure that Kiwis can rely on as ...
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    5 days ago
  • Making it easier to build infrastructure
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    6 days ago
  • NZ enhances North Korea sanctions monitoring
    New Zealand will enhance its defence contributions to monitoring violations of sanctions against North Korea, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today.  The enhancement will see the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) increase its contributions to North Korea sanctions monitoring, operating out of Japan. “This increase reflects the importance New Zealand ...
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    6 days ago
  • Speech to Safeguard National Health and Safety Conference
    Good afternoon everyone. It’s great to be with you all today before we wrap up Day One of the annual Safeguard National Health and Safety Conference. Thank you to the organisers and sponsors of this conference, for the chance to talk to you about the upcoming health and safety consultation. ...
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  • Ōtaki to north of Levin alliance agreements signed
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  • Improvements to stopping Digital Child Exploitation
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  • New vaccine research aims to combat prevalent bovine disease
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    6 days ago
  • Making it easier to build granny flats
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    7 days ago
  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Auckland King’s Counsel Gregory Peter Blanchard as a High Court Judge. Justice Blanchard attended the University of Auckland from 1991 to 1995, graduating with an LLB (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts (English). He was a solicitor with the firm that is now Dentons ...
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    1 week ago
  • Health workforce numbers rise
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    1 week ago
  • Government to overhaul firearms laws
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  • Government delivers landmark specialist schools investment
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    1 week ago
  • Major health and safety consultation begins
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    1 week ago
  • Growing the potential of New Zealand’s forestry sector in partnership
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    1 week ago
  • Government cancels forestry ETS annual service charges for 2023-24
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  • Speech to the LGNZ Infrastructure Symposium
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    1 week ago
  • Government boosts Agriculture and food trade with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard welcomed outcomes to boost agricultural and food trade between New Zealand and China. A number of documents were signed today at Government House that will improve the business environment between New Zealand and China, and help reduce barriers, including on infant formula ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • NZ and China launch Services Trade Negotiations
    Trade Minister Todd McClay, and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, today announced the official launch of Negotiations on Services Trade between the two countries.  “The Government is focused on opening doors for services exporters to grow the New Zealand’s economy,” Mr McClay says.  As part of the 2022 New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement Upgrade ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister Luxon meets with Premier Li
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    2 weeks ago
  • Government and business tackling gender pay gap
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    2 weeks ago
  • Funding Boost for Rural Support Trusts
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    2 weeks ago
  • Latest data shows size of public service decreasing
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    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to the Law Association
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    2 weeks ago
  • 25 years on, NZ reaffirms enduring friendship with Timor Leste
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    2 weeks ago
  • Inquiry requested into rural banking
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    2 weeks ago
  • Ministry for Regulation targets red tape to keep farmers and growers competitive
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    2 weeks ago
  • Government to reverse blanket speed limit reductions
    The Coalition Government will reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions by 1 July 2025 through a new Land Transport Rule released for public consultation today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  The draft speed limit rule will deliver on the National-ACT coalition commitment to reverse the previous government’s blanket speed limit ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Chair appointments for NZSO, CNZ and NZ On Air
    Minister Paul Goldsmith is making major leadership changes within both his Arts and Media portfolios. “I am delighted to announce Carmel Walsh will be officially stepping into the role of Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra, having been acting Chair since April,” Arts Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Carmel is ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Government focus on long-term food, fibre growth
    Food and fibre export revenue is tipped to reach $54.6 billion this year and hit a record $66.6b in 2028 as the Government focuses on getting better access to markets and cutting red tape, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones say. “This achievement is testament ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Govt consulting on cutting red tape for exporters
    A new export exemption proposal for food businesses demonstrates the coalition Government’s commitment to reducing regulatory barriers for industry and increasing the value of New Zealand exports, which gets safe New Zealand food to more markets, says Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The coalition Government has listened to the concerns ...
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    2 weeks ago

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