Labour surges in latest poll

Written By: mickysavage - Date published: 7:55 am, October 11th, 2023 - 82 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, national, nz first, political parties, polls - Tags:

Three days ago I suggested that Labour was getting some momentum and that the feeling on the ground is that people are not trusting National and are incredulous at its policies that do not make sense.

This morning the feeling was verified. From Charlotte Graham-McLay at the Guardian:

Support for Labour has registered a burst of energy in a Guardian Essential poll days before the New Zealand election – but not enough to overcome an advance by the populist group New Zealand First, which is expected to propel a rightwing coalition to power.

The minor party’s steady climb in recent surveys threatens to vex what once appeared an easy route to victory for the right in Saturday’s election, after months of polls showed governing Labour languishing. Led by the maverick, veteran lawmaker Winston Peters, New Zealand First recorded 8.2% in October’s poll – which includes undecided voters in its total – up 2.2 points from September’s survey, and the party’s strongest showing of any major poll this year.

Since September’s poll, support stalled for centre-right National, the main opposition party, which recorded 34% of the vote, 0.5 points down from last month. Its support partner, the minor libertarian group Act, slid 2.4 points to 7.9%.

The centre-left Labour party lifted 3.4 points to 30.3%, an 11th-hour boost after months of persistent slumps in the polls. Support for Labour’s leftwing support parties was steady; the Greens recorded 10.6% of the vote (down 0.4 points from last month) and Te Pāti Māori registered 1.9% (down 0.6 points).

National and Act must be really concerned with this result. Despite their huge war chests and conditions that would normally see most Governments voted out they have stalled and are going backward.

The right including Peters is still ahead. But hang onto your hats. Labour has some momentum and this is going to be close.

And the final polls in 2005 had National 5 points ahead of where it ended up and Labour 3 points behind. That sized change could see Labour returned to power.

And don’t forget. Triple your vote. Get two friends or whanau members to vote. Your country’s future depends on it.

82 comments on “Labour surges in latest poll ”

Comments are now closed

PsyclingLeft.Always 1

11 October 2023 at 8:08 am

Your country’s future depends on it.

I so agree with that! And yep I absolutely still see a Left Govt ! While the right wing Coalition of Chaos increasingly implodes, IMO keeping Left Solidarity will do it.

Cmon the Left !
Dennis Frank 2

11 October 2023 at 8:11 am

Yay, the dead cat bounce! There's also this to factor in:

National Deputy leader Nicola Willis said in a message to supporters before the weekend that the party believed 400,000 would vote over the weekend. In fact, only 214,806 did That raises the possibility that we may see a very low poll on Saturday.

Labour are worried about that, which may be one reason why they are expected to produce a social media video shortly from Jacinda Ardern. “She’s contacted me to indicate that she is intending to be very supportive in the last few days of the campaign,” Hipkins told media yesterday.
https://www.politik.co.nz/dont-hold-your-breath/ | Politik
- mickysavage 2.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 8:36 am
  
  You are quoting Nicola Willis on the Standard as an argument for something?
  - Dennis Frank 2.1.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 8:52 am
    
    The message is mismatch of her expectations to reality. Proves National's leadership team is out of touch with the voting public. Maybe you & I knew that, but we ought to give credit where it's due, and she admitted it tacitly. I doubt she is aware of having done so, mind you!
- Obtrectator 2.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 11:08 am
  
  "Labour are worried about that, which may be one reason why they are expected to produce a social media video shortly from Jacinda Ardern."
  
  All my instincts are saying "Don't!" about this idea. I don't fully understand myself why this should be. Unless it's because it would be too strong a reminder of the under-delivery from the second half of her administration (2020-22).
  - Anne 2.2.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 11:36 am
    
    Unless it's because it would be too strong a reminder of the under-delivery from the second half of her administration (2020-22).
    
    Wasn't there a pandemic or something which caused the whole world to go into isolation and meant governments had to concentrate their efforts on minimising the consequences and saving lives?
    
    I seem to remember it was between 2020 – 2022 and now the country is back on track and the outlook is looking good with inflation expected to decrease and wages continue to rise – at least under the current regime should they continue to govern.
    - Corey 2.2.1.1
      
      11 October 2023 at 2:29 pm
      
      There's alway an excuse for why Labour fails to deliver, and it's never labour's fault.
      
      in 2017-2020 it was Winston and since 2020 it's been the pandemic.
      
      The same pandemic that is only reason Labour got a second term resulted in unprecedented nation building levels of public support.
      
      The covid response sapped lots of energy from the govt which is why it's astounding and heart breaking that a govt elected to focus on housing, poverty, environment and mental healths priorities outside of covid were meaningless internal bureaucratic restructures, failed media mergers, hate speech reforms and three waters.
      
      All its non covid energy should have been spent on housing, mental health, environment and poverty.
      
      Labour either got arrogant and spent it's energy wrongly or it doesnt belive in its core principles.
      
      I think it's both.
      
      The only real win of this entire term was the dishwater weak Labour reforms and a few crumbs to beneficiaries.
      
      Couldn't even get piddly lite rail in one city off the ground in six years!!
      
      Labour got arrogant after 2020 they assumed they'd bolt into a third term win in 2023 and thus they had all the time in the world and chose to move at a glacial pace totally misreading the public mood a year.
      
      It took a year and a half for the govt to go out in favor with the public and instead of changing tact it doubled down on the unpopular shit, then freaked out canceled it all but replaced it with nothing and are offering nothing.
      
      They've known this was coming for 18 months and have little to no success to point to and are offering nothing.
      
      Luke the 4th Labour govt, Books and documentarys will be made about this govt and how it so historically mismanaged its unprecedented support.
      - SPC 2.2.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 3:11 pm
        
        Do you know what the Progressive Home Ownership Fund is?
        
        https://www.hud.govt.nz/our-work/progressive-home-ownership-fund/
        
        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132645019/government-tweaks-renttobuy-home-ownership-scheme-to-include-existing-homes
        
        Do you know the difference between Labour and National on state housing?
        
        "In just six years we’ve delivered over 13,000 public homes, the most of any Government since the 1950s. We’ve also added over 4000 transitional homes," Woods said.
        
        https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/24/labour-promises-another-6000-public-homes-if-re-elected/
        
        On assistance for energy efficiency retrofit
        
        https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/08/election-2023-labour-promises-energy-efficiency-retrofit-rebates/
      - SapphireGem 2.2.1.1.2
        
        11 October 2023 at 3:40 pm
        
        Cool diatribe Corey. Go on then and vote in a National/ ACT/ NZ First Government and see how much your life improves
      - SPC 2.2.1.1.3
        
        11 October 2023 at 3:53 pm
        
        Incomes
        
        Beneficiaries who get part-time work/casual- precariat work now keep more of that money before abatement
        
        Have you compared the wage increases to nurses and teachers 2008-2017 with those 2017-2023?
        
        Have you compared Labour's record on MW increases 2005-2008 and 2017-2023 with National 2008-2017? National wanted lower increases and intends to do this 2023-2026 while rents rise as they do. ACT wants a freeze in MW rises.
        
        Do you know what the Fair Pay Agreement does as per Industry Awards (as a holistic version of earlier work in such areas as wages for carers) – a system which delivers better wages (as in Oz).
        
        gsays 2.2.1.1.3.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 4:35 pm
        
        So why isn't Hipkins and co campaigning on any of this? Where is their messaging?
        
        Also where are the posts here on TS about these improvements? I know about not telling authors what to write. Instead we get scary bogie-man stories and general fear mongering.
        
        James Simpson …
        
        11 October 2023 at 4:53 pm
        
        Its been my concern throughout the campaign. The strategy seems to have been setting out reasons why not to vote for National, rather than reason why to vote for Labour, which should simply be look at our record and allow us to keep going with this.
        
        It may work, but I have my serious doubts.
        
        gsays …
        
        11 October 2023 at 5:03 pm
        
        The latest one, I caught a screenshot of here on TS somewhere, is National Blue, picture of Luxon, and text something along the lines of 'reasons to not vote National'. At a casual glance it just looks like another National billboard.
        
        Apparently election funds are scarce and they spend it on this?
        
        Beggars belief.
        
        There need to be more than a few advisors (you have to hope they are sub-contracted) that get the 'don't come Monday'.
        
        Where is the 'we ~~begrudgingly~~ delivered pay parity to the nursing workforce' ad?
        
        SapphireGem …
        
        11 October 2023 at 7:21 pm
        
        The ones doing the fear-mongering and the lion's share of negativity are the Right.
        
        As Jenna Lynch comments, "[National's] messaging around [Winston Peters] since doing so has been nothing short of hysterical. Panicking, threatening second elections – casting fear and confusion about how on earth they can work together." https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/jenna-lynch-poll-result-analysis-how-national-s-tax-plan-and-winston-peters-strategy-have-blown-up-in-their-face.html
        
        94.5% of National's Facebook posts are negative messaging, while 63% of Labour's are positive self-presentation – https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/06/study-reveals-which-big-party-has-been-most-negative-online/
        
        Yes, Labour has done attack ads and posts about Luxon and National. I share your concern that this strategy is dubious and detracts from positive messaging. However, as Dr Mona Krewel points out, "In terms of the quantity of posts, Hipkins and Labour have had to take far more hits from National than the other way around.” https://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=155689
        
        The Right is doing the vast majority of scaremongering and negativity and you surely must know this, so let's keep things in perspective
        
        Anne …
        
        11 October 2023 at 6:35 pm
        
        So why isn't Hipkins and co campaigning on any of this? Where is their messaging?
        
        They've been banging on about it for months. Every time Hipkins is interviewed he talks about what Labour has done and what they intend to do. Those interviews have all been available online but you appear not to have bothered to watch or listen to them. And there have been several pamphlets and online ads outlining their achievements and intentions.
        
        Sure, they can't compete with the onslaught from NAct who are being funded to the tune of millions of dollars by rich pricks wanting to become even richer. And its not Labour's fault if the journos choose to leave out the positives and concentrate on the negatives – which are usually in response to questions from them in the first instance.
        
        gsays …
        
        12 October 2023 at 6:32 am
        
        TBF, I have not sought out this info, the opinion is what filters through to me from the very limited commercial TV and radio I consume. Also from what I get here on TS.
        
        I have a suggestion, no polling in the month leading up to an election. Then, the journalists would have to report on things like policy. It is all wall to wall reckons about who is who's bestie. (I'm sure there should be a whom in there somewhere).
        
        Anne …
        
        12 October 2023 at 10:24 am
        
        Totally agree. It is mostly bottom of the barrel, 'gotcha' stuff which is screwing voter's minds to such an extent many no longer understand what they’re voting for.
        
        For my part I listen to RNZ journos and commentators and pick up on the more reliable journos who speak with many years of experience. Good examples – Gordon Campbell, Paul Buchanan, Claire Trevett and Simon Wilson. There are others too.
        
        Gemma …
        
        12 October 2023 at 10:33 am
        
        I agree with you on this, gsays.
      - gsays 2.2.1.1.4
        
        11 October 2023 at 4:37 pm
        
        Well said Corey.
      - Anne 2.2.1.1.5
        
        11 October 2023 at 5:39 pm
        
        There's alway an excuse for why Labour fails to deliver, and it's never labour's fault.
        
        When you start off with a statement like Corey @ 2.2.1.1, that tells me the rest of the diatribe is unlikely to be worth reading so I skimmed only.
        
        So, you listened to, and believed false prophets. Best of luck, you’re going to need it.
        
        SapphireGem 2.2.1.1.5.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 6:40 pm
  - Dennis Frank 2.2.2
    
    11 October 2023 at 11:43 am
    
    Interesting. One ought always to give serious consideration to instincts. They are extremely deep Green! I agree that it makes sense to correlate it with the later phase of Labour's non-delivery track record. Being the recent past, it's more influential.
    
    Would it affect floaters though? Only in relativity, I reckon. Other influences also impinge on them concurrently so they live in a nexus. I'd rate the latest msm poll as primary influence, and how floaters react to the prospect of govt as outcome.
Ad 3

11 October 2023 at 8:14 am

Go the team.

That $$-per-vote ratio for ACT must be a scream.
- Dennis Frank 3.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 8:22 am
  
  The 8-all parity we speculated about less than a fortnight back has manifested! Handbrake theory applies. Undecided voters: "Jeez that Seymour is a total nutter & Luxon such a wimp, gotta get a handbrake onto the right pronto!" Winston: "I'm still here." U voters: "Oh yeah, okay, we'll lift you out of the margin of error & get you up over the threshold." Winston: "Cool! Ready & waiting."
- Bearded Git 3.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 9:02 am
  
  Such a pleasure to see ACT plummet.
  
  Seymour is a nasty piece of work which he often hides behind his smug eloquence. Remember this year he was caught out lying about not owning any property, so certainly not to be trusted on anything else he has said.
  - PsyclingLeft.Always 3.2.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 9:11 am
    
    On the TV news last night : )
    
    ACT leader David Seymour faced a few challenges on his stroll around central Christchurch today.
    
    At every step, he seemed to be met by people questioning his policies, including two teenage climate protesters who gate-crashed his media stand-up.
    
    "Your policies are racist and misogynistic and will continue to destroy the environment."
    
    They then stood in the background of Seymour's standup with signs proudly aloft. One read: "D. Seymour = A f***ing idiot".
    
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-david-seymour-confronted-by-protesters-unimpressed-cantabrians-during-walkabout.html
    
    Those girls were..awesome : )
    - Muttonbird 3.2.1.1
      
      11 October 2023 at 9:43 am
      
      Screenshot:
      - Dennis Frank 3.2.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 9:55 am
        
        Yeah, thought it was rather intriguing while observing them in that story last night. I'm tempted to credit Seymour for playing it cool, not freaking out.
        
        The notion that he may have a sense of humour is a tad radical but he may. Folks will have learnt from that story & become more likely to focus on particular examples of his idiocy to use a talking points with their circle…
        
        Muttonbird 3.2.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 10:10 am
        
        He can handle a couple of nervous teenagers ok I guess, he is not much more than a student politician himself. Some people do think he has a sense of humour, the type of people who laughed when he said it is a fantasy of his that Guy Fawkes blows up the Ministry of Pacific Peoples.
        
        But Seymour must be shitting bricks over this poll. Overtaken by NZ First. The shadowy backers of both parties (the same wealthy oligarchs in some cases) appear to have got their strategy wrong:
        
        Likely National coalition partner ACT also saw support dropping 2.4 points from 10.3 percent to 7.9 percent.
        
        But National's other likely coalition partner New Zealand First saw a spike in support. NZ First is on 8.2 percent, up 2.2 points from 6 percent in the previous poll.
        
        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-shock-poll-shows-support-for-labour-growing-nz-first-likely-to-hold-balance-of-power.html
Dennis Frank 4

11 October 2023 at 8:16 am

Prospects for a left govt:

because the Governor General requires proof that the Government can command a majority in the Chamber, it is possible it might not be able to do that until after the by-election. That could mean late November.

It would seem likely that if Labour gets to form the next government, it could get its support parties, the Greens and Te Paati Maori, together pretty quickly. Those parties have been talking to each other on a regular basis for some months now, and Hipkins suggested yesterday they were ready to form a government. He described their relationship during the campaign as “co-opetition.” https://www.politik.co.nz/dont-hold-your-breath/ | Politik

He invented that word because he believes collaboration is too hard, obviously. He deserves credit for energising the situation though. Some floaters have noticed.
- Incognito 4.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 1:31 pm
  
  He invented that word because he believes collaboration is too hard, obviously.
  
  Please stop spouting your lazy ignorant nonsense and nauseating narratives here. You don’t know what Hipkins believes, you obviously don’t know the meaning of the word, and you’re twisting meanings and making up shit.
  
  https://www.oed.com/search/dictionary/?scope=Entries&q=co-opetition
  - SapphireGem 4.1.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 1:42 pm
    
    Well said Incognito.
Patricia Bremner 5

11 October 2023 at 8:39 am

Thank you Ad. We are not done yet. It is great news that people appear to be understanding how destructive the rights policies would be.

The "up to" regarding the tax was the icebreaker. Then the understanding that the changes to benefits were beyond punitive and represented a transfer of wealth from the vulnerable to the reasonably comfortable against all WEAG advice.

I think the question, "change to what?" asked by Robertson helped some reflect. There is not one new idea from the right. All the policies rehash previous failures, ignore studies and the science to promote failed ideology.

The promotion of gene editing and genetics is back on the table again.

Talking openly about the fate of the disabled, unwell and disadvantaged. Most people are shocked by the attitudes.
- SapphireGem 5.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 9:19 am
  
  Spot on Patricia. I also think the article (linked yesterday by Psychling Left Always) about National making mega-landlords multimillionaires will have further impact – obviously, as this was in the media yesterday, it won't be factored into the above mentioned poll; but I do think it will be in people's minds in the last couple of days of the campaign. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-hundreds-of-landlords-to-become-tax-cut-millionaires-under-national-s-plan-analysis.html
observer 6

11 October 2023 at 9:24 am

The problem for National becomes very apparent when we look behind the numbers.

The public (the swing voters) didn't know Luxon well. They were unhappy with the status quo, and talked of "change". National understood that, and said as little as possible about what that "change" would mean. Classic small target strategy.

But then the voters got to know the man who would be that "change". Most voters paid little attention to Luxon until the campaign got going.

The more they learn, the less they like. Example:

https://essentialreport.co.nz/questions/reaction-to-coverage/
- Dennis Frank 6.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 9:50 am
  
  Those four categories they put voters into is a tetrad & 4 seems a grounding influence, producing systems in nature. So it makes sense that sampling the whole with tetrad as tool points to the most grounded system influencing the election.
  
  On that basis your point rests. Since grounding, in the group mind, is the basis for collective reality (common ground) swing voters become the instrument to use to select the right change to make for the nation. Luxon ain't it.
- AB 6.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 10:10 am
  
  Thanks – an interesting analysis. Confirms my prejudice that middle-aged, male Aucklanders are the biggest problem!
Mike the Lefty 7

11 October 2023 at 10:03 am

You know in an absurd way I'm kind of hoping that NZ First gets enough votes to turn the next government into such a shambles that it quickly collapses and voters can see clearly that the political right in this country have no aims in life other than to fill their own pockets with spending loot.

Its horrible, I know, but part of me wants to see them elected so I can enjoy watching them fall.
- Bearded Git 7.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 12:05 pm
  
  If NZF have the balance of power (which is far from certain as ACT plummets and the Left surges) then Winston will simply vote with the Left when he chooses, which will kill the bill.
Muttonbird 8

11 October 2023 at 10:18 am

Very direct, to the point and easy to understand campaign messaging from the Labour Party:
Sanctuary 9

11 October 2023 at 10:19 am

I'd hate to see Labour's numbers with middle aged Pakeha men with one or more rental properties in Auckland. I suspect the Labour voting component of that demographic have all posted in this thread already, the ACT voters would fill Spark Arena twice over and the National voters would totally ram Eden Park.
- Bearded Git 9.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 12:15 pm
  
  Not sure Sanc. I am sure landlords make plenty of money under the current settings and there will be plenty of non-National landlords.
Spa 10

11 October 2023 at 12:06 pm

Betting markets look like they have reacted to this. Labour still the outsider at around $8:50 but they were $10 yesterday.
- Dennis Frank 10.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 12:25 pm
  
  The Nat/Lab leaders haven't impressed floaters so far, so they ought to use lateral thinking for their final play. Luxon could offer to make Winston PM. Hipkins could respond by offering to make him GG. Markets would love it.
  - Spa 10.1.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 1:11 pm
    
    About $100 for prime minister to be from a party other than Labour or National.
    - Spa 10.1.1.1
      
      11 October 2023 at 1:12 pm
      
      https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/sport/politics/new-zealand-politics/1.204897037/true
Drowsy M. Kram 11

11 October 2023 at 1:00 pm

ACT dropping to 7.9%, only 0.3% above their 2020 election result, is encouraging.

At ~7% ACT would lose a seat – god knows Kiwis don’t need more ACT MPs.

Hipkins, a career politician, recorded 44% strongly positive sentiment and 27% strongly negative; the results were 33% strongly positive for Luxon, a former airline chief executive, with 40% strongly negative.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/guardian-essential-new-zealand-poll-labour-picks-up-steam-days-out-from-election

Go Luxon!
- Dennis Frank 11.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 1:25 pm
  
  Yeah, he seems to be, slowly. I'm not sure where to, at this point. He'll be thinking "Damn! No immediate JK effect."
  
  The prospect of a holiday in Oz could be tempting, eh? You know, check out the prospects of wall-of-flame bushfires in the various states so he can return as a climate-change consultant at the top level…
  - Drowsy M. Kram 11.1.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 1:49 pm
    
    I'm not sure where to, at this point.
    
    Next Mayor of Auckland? Can see the headline now – “Former Air NZ CEO urges his councillors to sell remaining airport shares.”
    
    Doubt Brown will get another look-in, even if he wanted one, so Lux wouldn't be waiting as long as Goff did.
    
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Goff#Parliamentary_career_after_being_leader:_2011%E2%80%932016
- PsyclingLeft.Always 11.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 1:26 pm
  
  Go Luxon!
  
  I'm sure there's an airline that will take him..somewhere : )
  - Johnr 11.2.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 7:52 pm
    
    Anywhere will do, as long as it's outta here
SPC 12

11 October 2023 at 1:26 pm

The uncertainty about the outcome has diminished.

It appears the spectre of a NACT regime has gone. Killed off by a belated enlightenment as to what it entails, government for the few.

ACT falling by half (15% to 7.5% on trends) because Rimmer wanted command rather than his Epsom droid role. No one wants HAL on board the government ship trying to take it over.

The bad news is that the chance of a Labour led government also appears to be over, it was dependent on getting above the right – 55-54% (done), but with NZF below 5%.

Peters has always said he would not go with Labour, which he brands racist and sexist for policies favouring Maori and women.

It appears the conservative "anti-progressive" sentiment against liberalism and elitist economic libertarianism has coalesced once again. It went to the left in 2017 as handbrake and now to the right in 2023.

For those on the left it's important that L/G/TPM get the vote out (30+/12+/3+), vote for a better future for all, including Maori and women …and see off the NACT (under 35/under 8) spectre now and again in 2026.

This time of discontent, post pandemic inflation blues and all its stress related manifestations (anti-lockdown/anti-vaccine mandate/anti action on global warming/anti globalism – agenda 21/anti indigenous status UNDRIP/anti-special favour for Maori/anti-feminist/anti-GI) shall pass.

And the important issues of egalitarianism – government with responsibility for all, rather than for those with capital and their class divide (owner and renter) society will decide the outcome in 2026. L/G/TPM the way of the future (2040 nation state mark 3) or NACT and global market neo-liberalism (generation 1984 expired).
- AB 12.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 1:53 pm
  
  A "belated enlightenment" – nicely put. Lets hope it's real, widespread enough and sustained over the next few days so that at least we avoid the very worst outcome (a NACT government), while hoping for the best outcome.
  - SPC 12.1.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 2:10 pm
- Bearded Git 12.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 2:23 pm
  
  If Rimmer's lot fall to 4.9 is he still going to win his Epson electorate?
  
  I guess he will but thought National was putting in a bit more effort this time. It would put the cat among the pigeons if ACT didn't get any seats.
  - Rolling-on-Gravel 12.2.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 8:15 pm
    
    I pray he loses his seat. It's exactly what he deserves for being a soulless dickhead, to be honest.
- Stan 12.3
  
  11 October 2023 at 2:35 pm
  
  SPC I love the blend of Red Dwarf and 2001 – nice to see a fellow nerd…
Ad 13

11 October 2023 at 2:11 pm

I'd still like to see 10% for the Greens.

10% would be an object lesson that there's a real constituency for a more principled and idealistic Labour Party or they will have their support hoovered away quick.
- SPC 13.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 2:22 pm
  
  It's important for Labour's list return they get 30% – Select Committees and for 2026.
  
  It's up to the Labour team 2023-2026 to be both a good opposition, and offer an alternative in 2026.
  
  Greens have had to become a future social democratic party (sustainable society in a sustainable economy in a sustainable environment) because of Labour competing in the past (post 1984)/present centre for governance.
Bearded Git 14

11 October 2023 at 2:31 pm

If Rimmer's lot fall to 4.9 is he still going to win his Epson electorate?

I guess he will but thought National was putting in a bit more effort this time. It would put the cat among the pigeons if ACT didn't get any seats.
- AB 14.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 4:24 pm
  
  Let's get out there and do some sign-waving for Paul Goldsmith BG! Pretty easy work, because if history repeats, they will be very small signs.
  
  (Possibly made even lighter by the presence of large holes?)
georgecom 15

11 October 2023 at 3:42 pm

need a 3 more % points to go left on these results

once the wasted vote is stripped out the coalition of chaos can just get over the line

a wee bit more % gone and suddenly the coalition of chaos are left short of govt and winston has some hard decisions to make if he wants to get his hands on the baubles of power

or better still the margin of credibility parties suck up some of winnies votes and leave him just short
Vivie 16

11 October 2023 at 3:50 pm

Re Micky's comments:

"And the final polls in 2005 had National 5 points ahead of where it ended up and Labour 3 points behind. That sized change could see Labour returned to power".

This seems a real possibility, in light of the Guardian poll, covering from 4th October to 8th October. National is on 34% and Labour is on 30.3%, up 3%. Labour is gaining momentum, so hope is realistic.
Drowsy M. Kram 17

11 October 2023 at 4:12 pm

".. a strong, stable National-led government .." – wait, did we just hit a pothole? Bloody ACT!
SPC 18

11 October 2023 at 4:44 pm

Just got an email from the Taxpayers Union board member Ruth Richardson

Labour/Greens/Māori Party ahead in new poll

First sign of panic.

Jordan must be hiding under his desk, all that money and there is no escape from Peters.

I wonder if there will be one from Peter (no Wayne Brown people claiming his golf club land) Williams before the weekend … he should worry more about sewage back up onto the course or course land going under water.
- Ghostwhowalks 18.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 5:13 pm
  
  Tax Avoiders Union is just National-ACT front organisation .
  
  No surprise it was a phoenix that rose from the ashes of Dirty Politics
pat 19

11 October 2023 at 5:21 pm

Nothing has changed…turnout remains the key.

As of yesterday 850,000 votes have been cast (around 30%, depending upon turnout) and 3 days remain (4 if you count today)…the poll result impact on future voting will be limited (assuming it has an impact).

Who knows, perhaps we will be heading back to the polls before Christmas.

And regardless, all the problems remain.
- SPC 19.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 6:18 pm
  
  Sure turnout determines both the accuracy of the poll and also any swing in favour of those who do go out and vote.
  
  No voting by any group and the polls are wrong and the swing goes in favour of another.
- observer 19.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 7:33 pm
  
  Who knows, perhaps we will be heading back to the polls before Christmas.
  
  It's a real shame to see this myth being given an airing on here. The Parliamentary timetable and the campaign laws make this literally impossible, as does the constitutional convention for caretaker governments.
  
  The Gov-Gen will simply say to the parties: "keep talking".
  - pat 19.2.1
    
    11 October 2023 at 7:39 pm
    
    Are you saying that an election rerun is impossible before Christmas?…I imagine (depending upon the result post Saturday) that there would be sufficient time to run an election prior to Christmas should it be deemed necessary.
    
    There are 12 weeks before Christmas.
    - pat 19.2.1.1
      
      11 October 2023 at 7:46 pm
      
      I note Muldoon called 'the snap election' with 4 weeks notice in '84
    - observer 19.2.1.2
      
      11 October 2023 at 8:03 pm
      
      Scroll down for the timetable:
      
      Election 2023 Timeline – New Zealand Parliament (www.parliament.nz)
      
      After the November result (NOT October), then add several weeks (minimum) for negotiations.
      
      Then add the fact that the caretaker PM cannot call an election (unlike "normal" PM). So Muldoon 1984 comparison is meaningless.
      
      Then add the minimum campaign period, as required by the Electoral Commission.
      - pat 19.2.1.2.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 8:36 pm
        
        So highly unlikely but not impossible (before Christmas) …depending upon outcome.
        
        As said…who knows what the result will be come Saturday (and beyond)
        
        observer 19.2.1.2.1.1
        
        11 October 2023 at 10:01 pm
        
        We know that a result on Saturday is impossible, as explained in the link I provided.
        
        People can make all kinds of assumptions about what is likely to happen in negotiations, but nobody can call an election before the legal process has been followed.
        
        If the Governor-General intervened and ordered another election before Parliament has met, before duly elected MPs have been sworn in, there would be a constitutional uproar. If the caretaker PM tried to do it, same.
        
        MPs have been "elected" before and yet, not become MPs (e.g. 2002). There is no Parliament until the MPs are sworn in.
        
        Again, it's laid out in the timeline. An election needs a writ, nominations, etc. It is defined in law.
SPC 20

11 October 2023 at 6:14 pm

The TVNZ-Verian and Newshub-Reid polls also show NACT cannot form a majority.

Thus National is ahead because they have NZF backing.

For mine Labour should say they will support Greens 3% rent increase cap policy (for a minimum of one year) if they they form a government.
Thinker 21

11 October 2023 at 9:02 pm

Don't hate me, but if the choice is a very narrow win for the left, or a coalition of NACT-plus-NZF, I would take a long-term approach and opt for the latter.

If those are the two most-likely options, then, to me, the former would give the right endless opportunities to cause interference and then warn the country not to vote that way in 2026.

I think the reverse is also possible though. Luxon's talked the talk, including pointing at the left and calling it the "coalition of chaos" and Nicola Willis has staked her political life on the tax cuts going ahead. He/they have set the bar high for expectations from the people who vote for them. Even if the tax cuts go ahead, NZF will make Luxon have to swallow many dead rats.

With a dysfunctional coalition of parties that are a polygamous shotgun marriage of co-haters and it would make people forget about John Key's three-way handshake.
- SPC 21.1
  
  11 October 2023 at 9:12 pm
  
  I'd take the win. Labour/Green/TPM would get the chance to govern – albeit lite with a centrist PM. It would end the fear of a centre-left wing coalition and make the NACT option the one to be wary of.
- Ad 21.2
  
  11 October 2023 at 9:45 pm
  
  You're not thinking.
  
  It never works out that way for National: they always get 9 years not 3.
  
  Remember when Key barely made power in 2008 and was sure to lose the next one?
  
  Terrible idea.
- Rolling-on-Gravel 21.3
  
  11 October 2023 at 11:04 pm
  
  Thinker, I disagree with your assessment that a NZF/NACT government is worth enduring for the one simple reason:
  
  NACT has the intention to gut what remains of the welfare state a la Britain. Over there, they have been responsible for death of a lot of people on the benefits due to sanctions and cuts.
  
  That is utterly unacceptable and shouldn't happen here.
  
  George Osbourne & Iain Duncan Smith isn't to be imported here at all.
  
  Just because we are culturally similar to both UK and USA doesn't mean we should slavishly follow them off any cliffs.
  
  That is why I am hoping for a LAB/GRN/TPM coalition so we can improve and safeguard the welfare state and make sure Aotearoa is an amazing place for all!
  - Thinker 21.3.1
    
    12 October 2023 at 8:28 am
    
    Remembering that these are just opinions and not trying to say "I'm right and you're wrong", but to show that I am thinking, even if I'm not thinking the same things as you, to respond to the three responses in turn:
    
    1. SPC – We're talking about the potential of a very narrow left win. Politics is a bit like driving. If you're not driving on the left side of the white line, you're driving on the right.
    
    I think, rather than eliminate the fear of a centre-left coalition, the three parties of NACTNZF would spend the years between 2023 and 2026 'proving' to voters what the could/would have had, if only they had voted right. Which could really drive down the left's popularity to the kind of levels National had with Bill English (in the 20's) and make it hard to recover from at that time.
    
    Versus three years of National's broken promises (courtesy of "Handbrake Winston") and forcing NACT into the 20s territory and make it a long time before they ever got re-elected. Most of their election promises/bribes would sit on the table, not done, thanks to the inability of the NACTNZF to reach a consensus on most things.
    
    Long-term, there's more for the left in letting voters see what they did vote for, as opposed to NACT telling them would they could/would have had, if only…
    
    2. AD, yes Key did turn a small victory into a bigger one in the next two terms. But, he cleverly refused to deal with NZF. He wouldn't have been able to do that if he had a coalition of NACTNZF. And, he's a lot more shrewd than Luxon.
    
    3. RoG, NZF would make sure the right didn't get to do those "right-wing things". As a policy, it has to pull everything to the middle, if it is to survive at all. When in coalition with the left, it did the same and stopped many of the left-wing things from happening. NZF is in survival mode and would/will have to hold NACT's ears to the stove on many things, if it is to present itself as credible in 2026.
    
    BTW, I'm not an advocate for NZF. Just an advocate for politics as a long-term game. I believe that, up until the time when today's 35 years old and under were too young to vote, elections were National's to win and the left sometimes got a look-in. Now, with climate change and a growing population of more civil-rights, socially-aware voters, the left will be the natural government and the right will have to claw its way in from time to time. More so, as the baby-boomers disappear from the electoral rolls.
    
    All just my opinion and I'm certainly not discrediting your thoughts.
- SapphireGem 21.4
  
  11 October 2023 at 11:16 pm
  
  I'd prefer a narrow victory for the Left. If National get in, they will likely remain in for nine years and destroy NZ in the process, of course disproportionately impacting on the most at-risk groups in our country.
Tricledrown 22

11 October 2023 at 9:30 pm

What makes me laugh is that National and ACT donations for the campaign total $12 to $20 million for their campaign while Labour have only $2.5million if I were the donor to Nact I would be wanting my money back and give Chris Luxon and Seymour the sack.