web analytics

Latest Comar Brunton poll result

Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments
Categories: bill english, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national, nz first, polls - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton poll has been released and there has been little movement since the election.  The figures are Labour 39%, National 46%, Greens 7% and NZ First 5%.  Improvements for the major parties have been at the expense of minor parties and New Zealand First who have all gone backward.

Some pundits are decrying the lack of bounce.  My personal view is that it shows how divided the electorate is.  And there are some really helpful associated results.

Jacinda is now by far the most preferred Prime Minister.  She is up 6% points and English is down 9% points from the last poll.

And the country by a significant majority thinks things are heading in the right direction.

The poll is interesting in that 50% of the calls were made to cellphones. Time will tell if this has had an effect on the result.

Some will paint this as a disappointing result for the Government. For me it looks pretty solid. As long as Labour and co can show significant improvements in important issues I expect there to be a general trend favourable to the Government.

88 comments on “Latest Comar Brunton poll result”

  1. mango 1

    It’s worth looking at the RNZ poll of polls analysis. Interestingly two other recent polls have national much lower than colmar brunton.
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/345867/poll-voters-broadly-say-yes-to-new-government

    • alwyn 1.1

      You did notice this line in the report.
      “The big difference in the three polls was that the 1 News Colmar Brunton had a much stronger result for National (46%) than the two earlier polls”.
      This Colmar-Brunton result would indicate that the honeymoon is already over and there is a swing back to National.

      Hardly surprising given that the performance of the Government to date has been appalling. They really weren’t ready for the job, having wasted the last nine years when they should have been developing new people and new ideas.

      A new Government usually has a large swing toward it in the early polls. Where did it go this time?

      Toby Manhire on the Spinoff had an article on what might be expected from the poll.
      https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/08-12-2017/the-first-big-poll-for-ages-is-due-what-would-be-a-good-result-for-labour/
      He suggested, for National. “If they can hit 42% or better on Sunday, they’ll be thrilled.”
      I suppose they will be.
      For Labour he proposed “Anything under 40% will be a disappointment. Anything above National will be a relief”.
      Oh dear.

      • marty mars 1.1.1

        2 time loser billshitter must be sad – he stuffed the gnats up and now long long years in oblivion await – oh well luckily Labour, NZF, and the Greens are a stable successful grouping and the public are happy with the direction. Yay it’s all going well.

        • Grantoc 1.1.1.1

          You sound like Pollyanna, Marty.

          I note that NZ First sit on 5% in this poll. The coalition won’t look especially stable or successful if NZ First fall below the 5% threshold. In fact if this were to build into a trend they won’t be around in 3 years. The coalition will then be facing ‘long years of oblivion’

          • marty mars 1.1.1.1.1

            Sadly for that proud party the gnats the slide is on. Support partners? Nah, Enough to govern alone? Nah, Toast? Yup, bills fault? Yup – Supporters? Running, Proof? They want to talk about anything other than the gnat election debarcle.

            • Grantoc 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Maybe this week the Nats will ‘talk about’ that bunch of overstretched, inexperienced, un engaged, bitter and twisted, back stabbing happy campers propping up the coalition; also known as the Green Party.

              When you put the hapless Greens alongside NZ First potentially disappearing into the uncertainty of life beneath the 5% threshold, then coalition stability and success really does look fragile.

              Don’t you think Marty?

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                No, you have it the wrong way around – that is what David Farrar thinks, and you are his mouthpiece.

                • Grantoc

                  Well thank you for that insight OAB and merry christmas to you.

                  Do you know what, I actually don’t know what David Farrar thinks; but clearly you do. Sounds like you follow him closely;maybe hanging off every word of his?

                  Maybe you’ve got it wrong; maybe you’re his mouth piece.

                  Anyway it doesn’t change the accuracy of my comment.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    If you’re not a mindless sponge, how come you never say anything original?

                    And yes, I agree, your comment is still witless drivel, motivated by hate: that hasn’t changed.

                    • Grantoc

                      OAB; Your insights into the behaviour of those with whom you have no knowledge are quite awe inspiring. How do you do it?

                      I am so impressed that you understand what motivates me; it is quite extraordinary given that you have no idea who I am.

                      Perhaps the explanation is that actually all you do is to project your own emotions, motivations and attitudes onto the wider world. You crawl out from under whichever rock you’re currently lurking beneath; spit venom full of self hate at whatever is challenging your point of view and then crawl back again.

                      You almost deserve to be pitied.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    Speaking of spitting venom:

                    overstretched, inexperienced, un engaged, bitter and twisted, back stabbing

                    The conclusion that these words are motivated by hate is inescapable.

                    • Grantoc

                      Wrong again OAB

                      Rather these are the kinds of conclusions that can reasonably be made based on the letter leaked by someone in the Green Party to the media, which describes life in the Green Party right now.

                      Typically these are the behaviours associated with workforces that are significantly disengaged; which is the current state of the Green party. Ironic as that is.

                      But you may be right to the extent that these words are motivated by hate (although probably too strong a word – frustration/disappointment maybe even envy more accurately describes how they are feeling) etc – but that emanates from Green Party staffers/members/politicians; I’m simply observing and recording.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      😆

              • Sadly that strategy didn’t work for the gnats – they burned off their support partners and found themselves floundering as gnatnomates – pretty poor politics whichever way you look at it.

      • Muttonbird 1.1.2

        Toby Manhire is a comedy writer. This piece reflects that.

        • alwyn 1.1.2.1

          “a comedy writer”
          Is he really? It does sound appropriate of course as this Government is so badly prepared for the job that they are a joke.

          • UncookedSelachimorpha 1.1.2.1.1

            “this Government is so badly prepared for the job that they are a joke.”

            And yet despite that, they are making some positive moves that the previous lot with 9 years in power, couldn’t. But early days.

          • NewsFlash 1.1.2.1.2

            Alwyn, the only joke is the fact that this Govt is having to put out a fire for every policy that the Nats left burning out of control, and that’s most of them, if National were so popular they’d be in Govt now, but they’re not are they?

  2. mosa 2

    Colmar Brunton despite other reputable polling analysis that has has their party vote much lower has always had the National party well ahead.

    Colmar Brunton is here to over inflate the National parties position and send the message that they are still popular and loved on the Sunday night 6pm news instalment that still peddles right wing propaganda.

    Case in point was Jacinda meeting Australian Labor leader Bill Shorten who is on a weekend visit.
    No mention on Newshub and a ten second news bite on One News.

    The Californian fires destroying wealthy neighbourhoods in L.A got at least three to four minutes and in depth analysis of the celebrities affected.

    Strange when Key met anyone who could give him a selfie moment it was all over the news no matter how inconsequential that person was.

    • alwyn 2.1

      You’re right.
      Key met a lot of inconsequential people.
      Who was that American who thought so highly of him.
      Some name like Obama I think. Quite unimportant.

      Make the most of meeting Shorten though. I was in Oz a few weeks ago and Mr Shorten may be in very big trouble for unauthorised expenditure of Union funds on his political ambitions.

      • savenz 2.1.1

        Must be why Key put all that huge million dollar donation into the Clinton foundation on behalf of NZ taxpayers, I mean we don’t need the money here for locals. Life is like a box of chocolates for all, we have no crisis we need to worry about here under National’s reign, better for Key to help the Clintons they could really do with some dough.

        And that nice man Thiel can get that sweetheart multi million deal on those shares cause he could do with a donation and Key can give him citizenship to add to the EU and US citizenships he already has. 11 days in NZ, he really needs another multi million dollar residence in Queenstown to rest his weary head.

        I love how generous our politicians are in this country to those who most need it. (and a bit less generous to those that do need it).

      • NewsFlash 2.1.2

        Stop LYING Alwyn, I live here, the only political party in trouble right now is Turnbull, who wont last another election, stop LYING.

    • Ed 2.2

      Follow the money….

      Who are the shareholders of Colmar Brunton?

      Colmar Brunton is owned by Kantar Millward Brown
      Kantar Millward Brown is owned by WPP Plc

      Some of the shareholders of WPP Plc are :

      Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
      Harris Associates LP
      The Vanguard Group, Inc.
      Norges Bank Investment Management
      Nordea Investment Management AB (Denmark)
      Martin Sorrell
      Aberdeen Asset Investments Ltd.
      MFS International Singapore Pte. Ltd.
      BlackRock Fund Advisors
      First Pacific Advisors LLC

    • Unicus 2.3

      Quite true both TV One an Three have continued their slavish pre-election support for National that will continue until the John Key appointed board at TV one is replaced.

      Both channels have minimised Jacindas profile an at same time providing As much exposure possible for the National Party has- been’s and their dead in the water leader .This is also reflected in Fairfax publications where Jacinda is given only life support oxygen while Bill and co are weirdly over bloated with it .

      When Key was elected his grossness was sold daily in the media as everything from ” the new Kennedy ” To Obamas closest friend and the Queens most treasured confidant – that bullshit lasted the whole time he was leader –

      Today’s Prime Minister was forced to release her governments new education policy on face book because the MSM are still busily behaving as a salve for the losers of the election

      Underlying the election result is an excruciating fact most Tories have yet to face .Even with The support of TV Ones National stacked board and the belligerent electioneering by Fairfax and Radio Networks – National was still soundly beaten.

      The days when scurrilous media tyrants like Murdoch could impose their right wing preference s on free democracy’s is over . Suck it up Tories your favourite plaything is toast – Jacinda and the Internet have done for you bastards once and for all.

  3. Matthew Whitehead 3

    I’ve translated the CB into seats, and made projections on how likely it makes various governing arrangements on twitter:

    It looks like this, if we don’t account for margin of error:

    Labour – 48
    Greens – 9
    NZF – 6
    ACT – 1
    National – 56
    Total: 120, 61 seats needed for a majority
    Current coalition would be re-elected.

    Out of 2,000 simulated elections: (assuming 95% chance of ACT retaining epsom, and 50% chance of Māori Party re-election)

    Current coalition wins a second term: 49.1%
    Labour-Greens can choose to ditch NZF: 7.4%
    Māori Party can replace NZF, or Labour-Greens can flex between the two: 8.1%
    Māori Party needed for either bloc to form a government: 13.4%
    Outright National-Act Government chance: 22.1%

    NZF under threshold chance: roughly 50%

    edit: As for the cellphones thing, this is just Colmar Brunton catching up to Roy Morgan in terms of methodology. Reid Research is probably correct that a partial internet panel is a more robust option.

  4. Kat 4

    Its fairly obvious that until such time the coalition “owns” the MSM and the lion-share of positive media narrative Labour will lag. On a positive note at least Labour is trending up, not down and they are in govt.

    A word to National supporters, the next real poll is the next general election. If thinking that this coalition is going to implode with an early election then dream on if it helps with the grief process.

  5. Tanz 5

    Over at Kiwiblog they are very very happy with National’s huge lead, especially as there is no real bounce for Labour. This is awesome for National, they are still the preferred biggest party, and NZ First are fading fast. Made my day, despite the rain. Not so important who the preferred PM is, it’s parties people vote for. There will be much rejoicing in the National camp. No honeymoon bounce for the new govt, NZ First near wipe out. Thank you Santa. National are actually up post election, an amazing feat for a third term govt. Champers time. No wonder English was so happy being interviewed!

    The Daily Blog says Labour should be freaked out by this poll. I like Martyn Bradbury, he always says it as it is.

    • ianmac 5.1

      Grow up Tanz. Even if NZF get to 1%, they are still part of Government. Come back in 2020.

      • Anne 5.1.1

        The loss of her beloved National govt. has temporarily deranged Tanz. Either that or she thinks she’s provoking Standardistas. Perhaps she’s deaf and can’t hear the laughter….

        Best she be ignored until sanity once again prevails.

        • fender 5.1.1.1

          Tanz used to be a huge Colin Craig fan, so I’ll never take her unhinged rantings seriously. She’s desperate and comes across as one of those headless feathered creatures IMO.

    • Dv 5.2

      Can’t count a kB either

    • Incognito 5.3

      Over at Kiwiblog they are very very happy with National’s huge lead …

      This is awesome for National …

      Made my day, despite the rain.

      There will be much rejoicing in the National camp.

      Thank you Santa.

      Champers time. No wonder English was so happy being interviewed!

      This epitomises the National Paradox: they already have so much and are happy with so little and yet they take (away) so much from those who have much less and so very little …

    • red-blooded 5.4

      Tanz, National are not a third term government – you’re living in the past. They’re the opposition. And they’re not in the lead – or not in a meaningful way, anyway. They’re still the biggest single party, but in NZ single parties don’t form governments.

      (And, BTW, Labour are up 6% of their election results, Nat are up 3%.)

      And when Martyn Bradbury was saying what a dreadful liar John Key was and what uncaring, arrogant arseholes your beloved Nats were while in government, did you love him then for “telling it like it is”?

    • McFlock 5.5

      Gosh, Labour should be panicking: if these trends continue, National will be on 60% polling when the next election comes around! lolz

      • Michael 5.5.1

        What “trend”? It’s one poll. If I was invested in this government’s future (and I’m not), I’d be worried about that NZ First rating: they are being overtaken by the Greens, with whom Labour appears much more comfortable working in government. How long before Winston and his crew wake up to that? Time for some wins for NZ First, I think.

        • BM 5.5.1.1

          If the Greens start polling back over 10% they’d have to be seriously starting to think about renegotiating the current arrangement, especially if NZ First is hovering around 5%.

          • Incognito 5.5.1.1.1

            I reckon the PM must call for a snap election if that happens; we cannot have a Parliament that does not reflect the polls as that would be a travesty of democracy.

            • BM 5.5.1.1.1.1

              Don’t be silly.

              Facts are Labour did a hatchet job on the Greens and reduced them to a position where they had to beg for whatever scraps they were given while Winston Peters gets to sit at the head of the table and feast on this enormous banquet.

              How long do you think it will take before the Greens start to get a bit pissy about that arrangement and demand more than scraps?

              • Incognito

                Don’t be daft.

                Fact is that National lost. You’re only giving us your mischievous opinions, not facts.

        • McFlock 5.5.1.2

          I was taking the piss.

          Frankly, the polls are pretty much irrelevant for probably the next 18 months. NZ1 is well positioned to straddle the LabNat divide, provided national have learned their lesson about how to deal with partners rather than supplicants.

          Labour can work with either greens or NZ1 or both. Where it gets interesting is if Labour get to the position where they can choose between the two – yes, prog lefties want Labour to go with greens, but Lab might go with NZ1 instead.

      • DoublePlusGood 5.5.2

        Yeah, National 60%, Labour 112%, Greens 28%, NZ First -12%, ACT a single vote across the whole country…something like that anyway.

      • alwyn 5.5.3

        That sounds about right.

    • Ed 5.6

      Do some research.
      Who are the owners of Colmar Brunton?

  6. ianmac 6

    In spite of English and co getting huge platforms to undermine Jacinda and team, they still look like loosers. Government go go go full steam ahead.

  7. adam 7

    How does this affect working people in any meaningful way?

    All it does do is remind us we now live in a society run by polls. We just had 9 years of a government deeply committed to doing everything via a poll result. And look at the mess we are in – the coalition will start doing the same, the short term and blissfully ignorant poll will win on the day.

    This is no way to have a society.

  8. Tanz 8

    I think you mean losers. Who cares. National will be back in 2020, with no need for NZ First (who will be wiped out, they will go down from here, not up), and will get to govern for a long long time after that. This is a three year break for them, or less. They have been awesome in Opposition. Question Time used to be a bore, now it is high entertainment. Winston did the dirty on National this time, but justice always wins in the end! As always, God is the real one in charge, His Sovereignty is forever

    • Muttonbird 8.1

      God is in charge? You’ve just outed yourself as a complete lunatic. As if we didn’t already know.

      • James 8.1.1

        What happened to not making comments to exclude others ?

        Whilst I might not agree with the god view – people should not be mocked for their views on the subject.

        There is enough trouble having femail voices on this blog without people like you being rude to them.

        Try commenting on the post and. It attacking the person.

        • Incognito 8.1.1.1

          You make very good points except for this one:

          Try commenting on the post and. [sic]

          You may want to view this educational clip: The Alt-Right Playbook: Never Play Defense https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmVkJvieaOA (HT to Ovid https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-02-12-2017/#comment-1421409)

          Put differently, if you get served an utter shambles in a restaurant you don’t start unpicking (unpacking) what’s wrong with it but you just send the whole lot back to the kitchen with a few critical comments about the chef. And they better redeem themselves or they will lose your custom and personal recommendation (poor online review?).

        • McFlock 8.1.1.2

          Personally, be it a magic book or true story, I’ve never understood how people reconcile the New Testament with being a tory. Unless they took “suffer the little children” as an order, of course.

          • ropata 8.1.1.2.1

            If you are a barely literate hillbilly, you believe what the preacher man says.

            Forget separation of church and state, the Gospel has been replaced with flag waving militarism, capitalist bootstraps, and a cult of US exceptionalism.

            (The actual teachings of Christ have a tendency to demolish the establishment power structure, that’s why he was killed)

            • In Vino 8.1.1.2.1.1

              Sorry, but the church since its adoption by the Roman Empire has adapted the teachings of Christ to turn them into a means of social control.
              What you call the actual teachings of Christ has become a fuzzy grey area, whatever the presumed original Christ may have intended.

              • ropata

                Haha, the biblical texts are the best preserved ancient documents we have. The church has definitely gone astray throughout history but there is little significant change to the biblical canon.

                Variants are listed in critical editions of the text, the most important of which is the Novum Testamentum Graece, which is the basis for most modern translations. For over 250 years, Christian scholars have argued that no textual variant affects key Christian doctrine.

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biblical_manuscript#Textual_criticism

    • Kat 8.2

      What stage of the grieving process do you reckon you are at Tanz?

    • David Mac 8.3

      If I was God I’d vote Green. Stupid to go to all that effort and not back it.

    • Incognito 8.4

      As always, God is the real one in charge, His Sovereignty is forever

      Huh? @ 5 you said:

      Thank you Santa.

      Now, we all know that Santa is doing the bidding of gluttonous profiteering capitalists whom you worship but I am confused now as to whom or what you worship most: Santa, God, Bill, Capitalism, or Gluttony?

      • the pigman 8.4.1

        First Santa, then God. Next it’ll all be John Key’s great work. Too much “champers” I’d say.

        Makes me long for the days of that bored alcoholic LARPing housewife from the SF bay area who used to post here… sweet remembrances.

    • fender 8.5

      “….God is the real one in charge….”

      bukowski by modest mouse

      “…..If God controls the land and disease
      And keeps a watchful eye on me
      If he’s really so damn mighty
      Well, my problem is, I can’t see
      Well, who would wanna be
      Well who would wanna be such a control freak?…..”

    • mary_a 8.6

      @ Tanz (8) … please explain how Winston “did the dirty” on Natz.

      I agree question time is indeed high entertainment. Very entertaining in fact, watching the opposition prove what a vindictive, opportunistic, petulant bunch of sore losers they are.

      “As always, God is the real one in charge, His Sovereignty is forever.”

      Really? Who says? Evidence please!

  9. Muttonbird 9

    I was in my local neighbourhood today and saw that Denise Lee is opening her electorate office on Main Highway in the middle of Ellerslie. This is the type of shop front branding National candidates will employ in an effort to sway voters on visual recognition rather than socially beneficial policy.

    Her office will mirror the Harcourts, the Barefoot and Thomson, and Ray White offices across the street. They sell the same service, after all.

    • indiana 9.1

      Is this sort of branding worse than say posing for Vogue?

      • dv 9.1.1

        At least Vogue gives NZ designers a platform.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1.2

        Good question.

        Mimicking real estate developers vs. a Vogue cover. It’s all a matter of perception I guess.

        For instance, which of them is employed in service of “an effort to sway voters on visual recognition rather than socially beneficial policy”?

      • Incognito 9.1.3

        Well, if posing for Vogue is causing a deepening and worsening of the housing crisis then I’d say the branding is no better or worse.

    • Anne 9.2

      Maggie Barry has her electorate office next door to the local police station. It’s quite a big building and hard to distinguish from the police building. It’s been painted in similar colours which I suspect is an attempt to associate themselves with our fine, upstanding policemen and women of the Police Force who never put a foot wrong – oh no. It’s all imagery and little substance with the Nats.

  10. Marcus Morris 10

    The failures of the last nine years are exposed almost daily. Latest of course was the revelation of the dismal consequences of the much vaunted National Standards. The housing crisis is worse than expected, gridlock in Auckland has lessened little since the opening of the Waterview tunnel and so on and so on. The challenges faced by this government are massive. As mentioned above, the real poll is in three years time and most decent New Zealanders will be hoping that we will be seeing positive improvements. I am just relieved that English and his cohorts didn’t have another three years to continue the damage they were bringing onto our once egalitarian society. (Did I mention water quality?).

  11. Upnorth 11

    Jacinda will not want Winnie to drop that low…watch for a headline by Winnie in a few days or weeks to show is boss

    • lurgee 11.1

      Unfortunately, Ardern has little control over Winston, and he has the self-preservation instinct of a possum in a motorway.

      I fully expect Winston’s arrogance and ‘flexible morality’ to bring about the demise of his party, again. I’m very worried it will damage Labour as well and bring about the return of Zombie Bill for a third instalment in the series.

      2002 – The Night of Bill English
      2017 – The Return of Bill English
      2020 – The Revenge of Bill English?

  12. ropata 12

    Fucking poll results are not significant news. Political horse races and mindless tribalism with zero discussion of policy. It’s just doofus personality shit, Bill vs Jacinda vs Winston. What a waste of news. Please Labour, pass a law to make this tabloid fodder illegal to publish on the front page or lead the news. Especially during elections.

    Do we have to be subjected to more Nat sycophant stupidity? All they care about is kicking the other tribe, notice that Tanz and Alwyn make zero mention of how the Nats have anything useful to offer NZ. They don’t give a shit about the suffering that the Nat regime caused, or its sordid record of corruption and lies. The future of NZ is at stake and all the RWNJ’s have to offer is Trumpish bile.

    • Ed 12.1

      Agreed.
      Ban polls.

    • In Vino 12.2

      With you now, Ropata.

        • red-blooded 12.2.1.1

          There has to be a pretty extreme damage to society and individuals in order to actually ban something, guys. Look at the damage done by tobacco, or alcohol – neither of these is banned. You might find polls annoying (solution – ignore them). You might think they become self-fulfilling, locking in a particular narrative in people’s minds, and maybe the solution is to control them (some countries don’t allow polls just before an election). I’d argue that polls are just part of the political landscape and that they’d have to be doing a lot of proven damage before any government should take an extreme step like banning them. Think how that would play out in public discussion: stifling political discourse, trying to keep people in the dark… Not good.

          • David Mac 12.2.1.1.1

            Yep, polls are fun. It’s placing too much weight in them that is wrong. Someone predicting our current government via the election polls would of finished up very wrong.

            • David Mac 12.2.1.1.1.1

              It’s a situation compounded by the Flim Flam men.

              Paddy Gower: “on these numbers…WE HAVE A BRAND NEW GOVERNMENT!”

  13. mosa 13

    I see the ever reliable One news covered the poll result and that C.B finally realised that calling people on the landline and not their mobile phones means they are missing out adding even more right wing idiots to the total for National because no one has a landline any more.

    If you ignore the hype of Nationals result Labour has climbed to 39 well above the early twenties that had become the norm and was a useful negative news headline for years and now under MMP that is vital for government formation and that Jacinda is most prefered PM.

    What One news deliberately left out was the important mood of the country.

    The majority think it is going in the right direction.

    Not that it is as important as Nationals largest party position and that it must surely on that basis be the government.

    We have changed the government now it’s time to change the media.

  14. lurgee 14

    Jacinda is now by far the most preferred Prime Minister. She is up 6% points and English is down 9% points from the last poll.

    I thought referring to Ardern by her first name was a belittling tactic deployed by the condescending curmudgeons of the right?

  15. lurgee 15

    As for the poll, NZ 1st’s dangerous flirtation with the 5% line should be noted. National aren’t the only major party in need of friends.

    • Matthew Whitehead 15.1

      Actually in this poll, the demise of NZFirst doesn’t hurt Labour because they and the Greens are ahead of National, but they’d need to feel relatively confident of that result. (RM’s result of Labour and Greens having a majority between them last month would indicate that they probably can be confident in that hypothesis, but they’d probably want to wait for the next RM to be sure. Usually results are somewhere between where CB and RM suggest, and CB is probably back to favouring National now it correctly has started adding non-landline respondents to its poll)

  16. Chris 16

    Not really surprising for NZF

    What ever he did he was going to piss off about 50% of his supporters, so losing a clump is hardly surprising

    Doubt they will be in the reckoning by next time if Winston chucks it in anyway

  17. Brian Tregaskin 17

    https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/345867/poll-voters-broadly-say-yes-to-new-government
    Colin james has written a great informed article

    Poll of Polls – Voters have broadly endorsed the new government in three polls taken since the government was formed.”

    “All three polls had a weaker result for New Zealand First than in the election.
    That may reflect the preference of a minority of New Zealand First supporters in two polls, one before and one after the election, for New Zealand First to go with National.
    That preference amounted to 1.9-2.0 percentage points out of New Zealand First’s 7.2% election result. If those voters have deserted New Zealand First since its choice of Labour, that would suggest it might be expected to be polling around 5.2%-5.3% – that is close to the Poll of Polls figure.”

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Wetlands and waterways gain from 1BT funding
    The Government will invest $10 million from the One Billion Trees Fund for large-scale planting to provide jobs in communities and improve the environment, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Forestry Minister Shane Jones have announced. New, more flexible funding criteria for applications will help up to 10 catchment groups plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • New fund for women now open
    Organisations that support women are invited to apply to a new $1,000,000 fund as part of the Government’s COVID-19 response. “We know women, and organisations that support women, have been affected by COVID-19. This new money will ensure funding for groups that support women and women’s rights,” said Minister for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Govt supports King Country farmers to lift freshwater quality
    Healthier waterways are front and centre in a new project involving more than 300 King Country sheep, beef and dairy farmers. The Government is investing $844,000 in King Country River Care, a group that helps farmers to lift freshwater quality and farming practice, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. “Yesterday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Support for arts and music sector recovery
    A jobseekers programme for the creative sector and four new funds have been set up by the Government to help our arts and music industry recover from the blow of COVID-19. Thousands of jobs will be supported through today’s $175 million package in a crucial economic boost to support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Legislative changes to support the wellbeing of veterans and their families
    Minister for Veterans Ron Mark has welcomed the First Reading of a Bill that will make legislative changes to further improve the veterans’ support system.  The Veterans’ Support Amendment Bill No 2, which will amend the Veterans’ Support Act 2014, passed First Reading today. The bill addresses a number of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Christ Church Cathedral – Order in Council
    Views sought on Order in Council to help fast track the reinstatement of the Christ Church Cathedral  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Hon Poto Williams, will be seeking public written comment, following Cabinet approving the drafting of an Order in Council aimed at fast-tracking the reinstatement of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealanders’ human rights better protected in new Bill
    The law setting out New Zealanders’ basic civil and human rights is today one step towards being strengthened following the first reading of a Bill that requires Parliament to take action if a court says a statute undermines those rights. At present, a senior court can issue a ‘declaration of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Deep concern at Hong Kong national security legislation
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters today reiterated the deep concern of the New Zealand Government following confirmation by China’s National People’s Congress of national security legislation relating to Hong Kong. “New Zealand shares the international community’s significant and long-standing stake in Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability,” Mr Peters said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government invests in New Zealand’s cultural recovery
    Thousands of artists and creatives at hundreds of cultural and heritage organisations have been given much-needed support to recover from the impact of COVID-19, Prime Minister and Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Jacinda Ardern announced today. “The cultural sector was amongst the worst hit by the global pandemic,” Jacinda ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Better protection for New Zealand assets during COVID-19 crisis
    Key New Zealand assets will be better protected from being sold to overseas owners in a way contrary to the national interest, with the passage of the Overseas Investment (Urgent Measures) Bill. The Bill, which passed its third reading in Parliament today, also cuts unnecessary red tape to help attract ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Cleaning up our rivers and lakes
    Setting higher health standards at swimming spots Requiring urban waterways to be cleaned up and new protections for urban streams Putting controls on higher-risk farm practices such as winter grazing and feed lots Setting stricter controls on nitrogen pollution and new bottom lines on other measures of waterway health Ensuring ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Record year for diversity on Govt boards
    The Government is on the verge of reaching its target of state sector boards and committees made up of at least 50 percent women, says Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter and Minister for Ethnic Communities Jenny Salesa. For the first time, the Government stocktake measures the number of Māori, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New appointments to the Commerce Commission
    The Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister and Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media Minister, Kris Faafoi, has today announced the appointment of Tristan Gilbertson as the new Telecommunications Commissioner and member of the Commerce Commission. “Mr Gilbertson has considerable experience in the telecommunications industry and a strong reputation amongst his peers,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Historic pay equity settlement imminent for teacher aides
    The Ministry of Education and NZEI Te Riu Roa have agreed to settle the pay equity claim for teacher aides, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. This will see more than 22,000 teacher aides, mostly women, being valued and paid fairly for the work they do. “Teacher aides are frontline ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Govt delivers security for construction subcontractors
    Subcontractors will have greater certainty, more cashflow support and job security with new changes to retention payments under the Construction Contracts Act says Minister for Building and Construction, Jenny Salesa. A recent review of the retentions money regime showed that most of the building and construction sector is complying with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand and Singapore reaffirm ties
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong have marked the first anniversary of the New Zealand-Singapore Enhanced Partnership with a virtual Leaders’ Meeting today. The Enhanced Partnership, signed on 17 May 2019, provides the framework for cooperation across the four main areas of trade, defence and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • JOINT STATEMENT BY THE PRIME MINISTERS OF NEW ZEALAND AND THE REPUBLIC OF SINGAPORE ON THE FIRST AN...
    On 17 May 2019, New Zealand and Singapore established an Enhanced Partnership to elevate our relations. The Enhanced Partnership – based on the four pillars of trade and economics, security and defence, science, technology and innovation, and people-to-people links – has seen the long-standing relationship between our countries strengthen over the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government investment supports the acquisition of new Interislander ferries
    State-Owned Enterprises Minister Winston Peters has welcomed KiwiRail’s announcement that it is seeking a preferred shipyard to build two new rail-enabled ferries for the Cook Strait crossing. “This Government is committed to restoring rail to its rightful place in New Zealand. Bigger, better ships, with new technology are yet another ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Better protection for seabirds
    Better protection for seabirds is being put in place with a new National Plan of Action to reduce fishing-related captures, Fisheries Minister Stuart Nash and Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage announced today.   The National Plan of Action for Seabirds 2020 outlines our commitment to reduce fishing-related captures and associated seabird ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Milestone in cash flow support to SMEs
    Almost $1 billion in interest-free loans for small businesses More than 55,000 businesses have applied; 95% approved Average loan approx. $17,300 90% of applications from firms with ten or fewer staff A wide cross-section of businesses have applied, the most common are the construction industry, accommodation providers, professional firms, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government protects kids as smoking in cars ban becomes law
    Thousands of children will have healthier lungs after the Government’s ban on smoking in cars with kids becomes law, says Associate Minister of Health Jenny Salesa. This comes after the third reading of Smoke-free Environments (Prohibiting Smoking in Motor Vehicles Carrying Children) Amendment Bill earlier today. “This law makes it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Parliament returns to a safe normal
    The special Epidemic Response Committee (ERC) has successfully concluded its role, Leader of the House Chris Hipkins said today. The committee was set up on 25 March by the agreement of Parliament to scrutinise the Government and its actions while keeping people safe during levels 4 and 3 of lockdown. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Foreign Minister makes four diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters today announced four diplomatic appointments: New Zealand’s Ambassador to Belgium, High Commissioners to Nauru and Niue, and Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism. “As the world seeks to manage and then recover from COVID-19, our diplomatic and trade networks are more important than ever,” Mr Peters said. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Bill to counter violent extremism online
    New Zealanders will be better protected from online harm through a Bill introduced to Parliament today, says Internal Affairs Minister Tracey Martin. “The internet brings many benefits to society but can also be used as a weapon to spread harmful and illegal content and that is what this legislation targets,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Mycoplasma bovis eradication reaches two year milestone in good shape
    New Zealand’s world-first plan to eradicate the cattle disease Mycoplasma bovis is on track the latest technical data shows, says Agriculture and Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor. “Two years ago the Government, DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb New Zealand and industry partners made a bold decision to go hard and commit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New payment to support Kiwis through COVID
    Further support for New Zealanders affected by 1-in-100 year global economic shock 12-week payment will support people searching for new work or retraining Work programme on employment insurance to support workers and businesses The Government today announced a new temporary payment to support New Zealanders who lose their jobs due ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • PGF reset helps regional economies
    The Provincial Growth Fund will play a vital role in New Zealand’s post-COVID-19 recovery by creating jobs in shorter timeframes through at least $600 million being refocused on projects with more immediate economic benefits, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. The funding is comprised of repurposed Provincial Growth ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government exempts some home improvements from costly consents
    Government exempts some home improvements from costly consents Homeowners, builders and DIYers will soon have an easier time making basic home improvements as the Government scraps the need for consents for low-risk building work such as sleep-outs, sheds and carports – allowing the construction sector to fire back up quicker ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Concern at introduction of national security legislation for Hong Kong
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says the New Zealand Government has reacted with concern at the introduction of legislation in China’s National People’s Congress relating to national security in Hong Kong.  “We have a strong interest in seeing confidence maintained in the ‘one country, two systems’ principle under which Hong ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Samoa Language Week theme is perfect for the post-COVID-19 journey
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, says the theme for the 2020 Samoa Language Week is a perfect fit for helping our Pacific communities cope with the unfolding COVID-19 crisis, and to prepare now for the journey ahead as New Zealand focuses on recovery plans and rebuilding New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Adult kakī/black stilt numbers soar
    A nearly 40-year programme to protect one of New Zealand’s most critically endangered birds is paying off, with a record number of adult kakī/black stilt recently recorded living in the wild, the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage announced today. “Thanks to the team effort involved in the Department of Conservation’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Waikato-Tainui settlement story launched on 25th anniversary of Treaty signing
    The story of the Waikato-Tainui Treaty process and its enduring impact on the community is being told with a five-part web story launched today on the 25th anniversary of settlement, announced Associate Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni. “I am grateful to Waikato-Tainui for allowing us to help capture ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Taita College to benefit from $32 million school redevelopment
    Taita College in the Hutt Valley will be redeveloped to upgrade its ageing classrooms and leaky roofs, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. “The work is long overdue and will make a lasting difference to the school for generations to come,” Chris Hipkins said. “Too many of our schools are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Redeployment for workers in hard-hit regions
    The Government is allocating $36.72 million to projects in regions hard hit economically by COVID-19 to keep people working, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. Projects in Hawke’s Bay, Northland, Rotorua and Queenstown will be funded from the Government’s $100 million worker ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $35m to build financial resilience for New Zealanders
    A $35m boost to financial capability service providers funded by MSD will help New Zealanders manage their money better both day to day and through periods of financial difficulty, announced Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni. “It’s always been our position to increase support to key groups experiencing or at risk ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New District Court Judge appointed
    Dunedin barrister Melinda Broek has been appointed as a District Court Judge with Family Court jurisdiction to be based in Rotorua, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Ms Broek has iwi affiliations to Ngai Tai. She commenced her employment in 1996 with Scholefield Cockroft Lloyd in Invercargill specialising in family and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $206 million investment in upgrades at Ohakea Air Force Base
    The Coalition Government has approved a business case for $206 million in upgrades to critical infrastructure at Royal New Zealand Air Force Base Ohakea, with the first phase starting later this year, Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. The investment will be made in three phases over five years, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Review of CAA organisational culture released
    Transport Minister Phil Twyford today released the Ministry of Transport’s review of the organisational culture at the Civil Aviation Authority. Phil Twyford says all employees are entitled to a safe work environment. “I commissioned this independent review due to the concerns I had about the culture within the CAA, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Board appointed at Stats NZ
    Ensuring that Stats NZ’s direction and strategy best supports government policy decisions will be a key focus for a new Governance Advisory Board announced today by the Minister for Statistics, James Shaw. The new Governance Advisory Board will provide strategic advice to Stats NZ to ensure it is meeting New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Principal Environment Judge
    Environment Judge David Kirkpatrick of Auckland has been appointed as the Principal Environment Judge, Attorney-General David Parker announced today.  Judge Kirkpatrick was appointed an Environment Judge in February 2014. From December 2013 to July 2016 he was Chair of the Auckland Unitary Plan Independent Hearings Panel. Prior to appointment he ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago