Latest Comar Brunton poll result

Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments
Categories: bill english, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national, nz first, polls - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton poll has been released and there has been little movement since the election.  The figures are Labour 39%, National 46%, Greens 7% and NZ First 5%.  Improvements for the major parties have been at the expense of minor parties and New Zealand First who have all gone backward.

Some pundits are decrying the lack of bounce.  My personal view is that it shows how divided the electorate is.  And there are some really helpful associated results.

Jacinda is now by far the most preferred Prime Minister.  She is up 6% points and English is down 9% points from the last poll.

And the country by a significant majority thinks things are heading in the right direction.

The poll is interesting in that 50% of the calls were made to cellphones. Time will tell if this has had an effect on the result.

Some will paint this as a disappointing result for the Government. For me it looks pretty solid. As long as Labour and co can show significant improvements in important issues I expect there to be a general trend favourable to the Government.

88 comments on “Latest Comar Brunton poll result ”

  1. mango 1

    It’s worth looking at the RNZ poll of polls analysis. Interestingly two other recent polls have national much lower than colmar brunton.
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/345867/poll-voters-broadly-say-yes-to-new-government

    • alwyn 1.1

      You did notice this line in the report.
      “The big difference in the three polls was that the 1 News Colmar Brunton had a much stronger result for National (46%) than the two earlier polls”.
      This Colmar-Brunton result would indicate that the honeymoon is already over and there is a swing back to National.

      Hardly surprising given that the performance of the Government to date has been appalling. They really weren’t ready for the job, having wasted the last nine years when they should have been developing new people and new ideas.

      A new Government usually has a large swing toward it in the early polls. Where did it go this time?

      Toby Manhire on the Spinoff had an article on what might be expected from the poll.
      https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/08-12-2017/the-first-big-poll-for-ages-is-due-what-would-be-a-good-result-for-labour/
      He suggested, for National. “If they can hit 42% or better on Sunday, they’ll be thrilled.”
      I suppose they will be.
      For Labour he proposed “Anything under 40% will be a disappointment. Anything above National will be a relief”.
      Oh dear.

      • marty mars 1.1.1

        2 time loser billshitter must be sad – he stuffed the gnats up and now long long years in oblivion await – oh well luckily Labour, NZF, and the Greens are a stable successful grouping and the public are happy with the direction. Yay it’s all going well.

        • Grantoc 1.1.1.1

          You sound like Pollyanna, Marty.

          I note that NZ First sit on 5% in this poll. The coalition won’t look especially stable or successful if NZ First fall below the 5% threshold. In fact if this were to build into a trend they won’t be around in 3 years. The coalition will then be facing ‘long years of oblivion’

          • marty mars 1.1.1.1.1

            Sadly for that proud party the gnats the slide is on. Support partners? Nah, Enough to govern alone? Nah, Toast? Yup, bills fault? Yup – Supporters? Running, Proof? They want to talk about anything other than the gnat election debarcle.

            • Grantoc 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Maybe this week the Nats will ‘talk about’ that bunch of overstretched, inexperienced, un engaged, bitter and twisted, back stabbing happy campers propping up the coalition; also known as the Green Party.

              When you put the hapless Greens alongside NZ First potentially disappearing into the uncertainty of life beneath the 5% threshold, then coalition stability and success really does look fragile.

              Don’t you think Marty?

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                No, you have it the wrong way around – that is what David Farrar thinks, and you are his mouthpiece.

                • Grantoc

                  Well thank you for that insight OAB and merry christmas to you.

                  Do you know what, I actually don’t know what David Farrar thinks; but clearly you do. Sounds like you follow him closely;maybe hanging off every word of his?

                  Maybe you’ve got it wrong; maybe you’re his mouth piece.

                  Anyway it doesn’t change the accuracy of my comment.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    If you’re not a mindless sponge, how come you never say anything original?

                    And yes, I agree, your comment is still witless drivel, motivated by hate: that hasn’t changed.

                    • Grantoc

                      OAB; Your insights into the behaviour of those with whom you have no knowledge are quite awe inspiring. How do you do it?

                      I am so impressed that you understand what motivates me; it is quite extraordinary given that you have no idea who I am.

                      Perhaps the explanation is that actually all you do is to project your own emotions, motivations and attitudes onto the wider world. You crawl out from under whichever rock you’re currently lurking beneath; spit venom full of self hate at whatever is challenging your point of view and then crawl back again.

                      You almost deserve to be pitied.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    Speaking of spitting venom:

                    overstretched, inexperienced, un engaged, bitter and twisted, back stabbing

                    The conclusion that these words are motivated by hate is inescapable.

                    • Grantoc

                      Wrong again OAB

                      Rather these are the kinds of conclusions that can reasonably be made based on the letter leaked by someone in the Green Party to the media, which describes life in the Green Party right now.

                      Typically these are the behaviours associated with workforces that are significantly disengaged; which is the current state of the Green party. Ironic as that is.

                      But you may be right to the extent that these words are motivated by hate (although probably too strong a word – frustration/disappointment maybe even envy more accurately describes how they are feeling) etc – but that emanates from Green Party staffers/members/politicians; I’m simply observing and recording.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      😆

              • Sadly that strategy didn’t work for the gnats – they burned off their support partners and found themselves floundering as gnatnomates – pretty poor politics whichever way you look at it.

      • Muttonbird 1.1.2

        Toby Manhire is a comedy writer. This piece reflects that.

        • alwyn 1.1.2.1

          “a comedy writer”
          Is he really? It does sound appropriate of course as this Government is so badly prepared for the job that they are a joke.

          • UncookedSelachimorpha 1.1.2.1.1

            “this Government is so badly prepared for the job that they are a joke.”

            And yet despite that, they are making some positive moves that the previous lot with 9 years in power, couldn’t. But early days.

          • NewsFlash 1.1.2.1.2

            Alwyn, the only joke is the fact that this Govt is having to put out a fire for every policy that the Nats left burning out of control, and that’s most of them, if National were so popular they’d be in Govt now, but they’re not are they?

  2. mosa 2

    Colmar Brunton despite other reputable polling analysis that has has their party vote much lower has always had the National party well ahead.

    Colmar Brunton is here to over inflate the National parties position and send the message that they are still popular and loved on the Sunday night 6pm news instalment that still peddles right wing propaganda.

    Case in point was Jacinda meeting Australian Labor leader Bill Shorten who is on a weekend visit.
    No mention on Newshub and a ten second news bite on One News.

    The Californian fires destroying wealthy neighbourhoods in L.A got at least three to four minutes and in depth analysis of the celebrities affected.

    Strange when Key met anyone who could give him a selfie moment it was all over the news no matter how inconsequential that person was.

    • alwyn 2.1

      You’re right.
      Key met a lot of inconsequential people.
      Who was that American who thought so highly of him.
      Some name like Obama I think. Quite unimportant.

      Make the most of meeting Shorten though. I was in Oz a few weeks ago and Mr Shorten may be in very big trouble for unauthorised expenditure of Union funds on his political ambitions.

      • savenz 2.1.1

        Must be why Key put all that huge million dollar donation into the Clinton foundation on behalf of NZ taxpayers, I mean we don’t need the money here for locals. Life is like a box of chocolates for all, we have no crisis we need to worry about here under National’s reign, better for Key to help the Clintons they could really do with some dough.

        And that nice man Thiel can get that sweetheart multi million deal on those shares cause he could do with a donation and Key can give him citizenship to add to the EU and US citizenships he already has. 11 days in NZ, he really needs another multi million dollar residence in Queenstown to rest his weary head.

        I love how generous our politicians are in this country to those who most need it. (and a bit less generous to those that do need it).

      • NewsFlash 2.1.2

        Stop LYING Alwyn, I live here, the only political party in trouble right now is Turnbull, who wont last another election, stop LYING.

    • Ed 2.2

      Follow the money….

      Who are the shareholders of Colmar Brunton?

      Colmar Brunton is owned by Kantar Millward Brown
      Kantar Millward Brown is owned by WPP Plc

      Some of the shareholders of WPP Plc are :

      Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
      Harris Associates LP
      The Vanguard Group, Inc.
      Norges Bank Investment Management
      Nordea Investment Management AB (Denmark)
      Martin Sorrell
      Aberdeen Asset Investments Ltd.
      MFS International Singapore Pte. Ltd.
      BlackRock Fund Advisors
      First Pacific Advisors LLC

    • Unicus 2.3

      Quite true both TV One an Three have continued their slavish pre-election support for National that will continue until the John Key appointed board at TV one is replaced.

      Both channels have minimised Jacindas profile an at same time providing As much exposure possible for the National Party has- been’s and their dead in the water leader .This is also reflected in Fairfax publications where Jacinda is given only life support oxygen while Bill and co are weirdly over bloated with it .

      When Key was elected his grossness was sold daily in the media as everything from ” the new Kennedy ” To Obamas closest friend and the Queens most treasured confidant – that bullshit lasted the whole time he was leader –

      Today’s Prime Minister was forced to release her governments new education policy on face book because the MSM are still busily behaving as a salve for the losers of the election

      Underlying the election result is an excruciating fact most Tories have yet to face .Even with The support of TV Ones National stacked board and the belligerent electioneering by Fairfax and Radio Networks – National was still soundly beaten.

      The days when scurrilous media tyrants like Murdoch could impose their right wing preference s on free democracy’s is over . Suck it up Tories your favourite plaything is toast – Jacinda and the Internet have done for you bastards once and for all.

  3. Matthew Whitehead 3

    I’ve translated the CB into seats, and made projections on how likely it makes various governing arrangements on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/MJWhitehead/status/939624674941550592

    It looks like this, if we don’t account for margin of error:

    Labour – 48
    Greens – 9
    NZF – 6
    ACT – 1
    National – 56
    Total: 120, 61 seats needed for a majority
    Current coalition would be re-elected.

    Out of 2,000 simulated elections: (assuming 95% chance of ACT retaining epsom, and 50% chance of Māori Party re-election)

    Current coalition wins a second term: 49.1%
    Labour-Greens can choose to ditch NZF: 7.4%
    Māori Party can replace NZF, or Labour-Greens can flex between the two: 8.1%
    Māori Party needed for either bloc to form a government: 13.4%
    Outright National-Act Government chance: 22.1%

    NZF under threshold chance: roughly 50%

    edit: As for the cellphones thing, this is just Colmar Brunton catching up to Roy Morgan in terms of methodology. Reid Research is probably correct that a partial internet panel is a more robust option.

  4. Kat 4

    Its fairly obvious that until such time the coalition “owns” the MSM and the lion-share of positive media narrative Labour will lag. On a positive note at least Labour is trending up, not down and they are in govt.

    A word to National supporters, the next real poll is the next general election. If thinking that this coalition is going to implode with an early election then dream on if it helps with the grief process.

  5. Tanz 5

    Over at Kiwiblog they are very very happy with National’s huge lead, especially as there is no real bounce for Labour. This is awesome for National, they are still the preferred biggest party, and NZ First are fading fast. Made my day, despite the rain. Not so important who the preferred PM is, it’s parties people vote for. There will be much rejoicing in the National camp. No honeymoon bounce for the new govt, NZ First near wipe out. Thank you Santa. National are actually up post election, an amazing feat for a third term govt. Champers time. No wonder English was so happy being interviewed!

    The Daily Blog says Labour should be freaked out by this poll. I like Martyn Bradbury, he always says it as it is.

    • ianmac 5.1

      Grow up Tanz. Even if NZF get to 1%, they are still part of Government. Come back in 2020.

      • Anne 5.1.1

        The loss of her beloved National govt. has temporarily deranged Tanz. Either that or she thinks she’s provoking Standardistas. Perhaps she’s deaf and can’t hear the laughter….

        Best she be ignored until sanity once again prevails.

        • fender 5.1.1.1

          Tanz used to be a huge Colin Craig fan, so I’ll never take her unhinged rantings seriously. She’s desperate and comes across as one of those headless feathered creatures IMO.

    • Dv 5.2

      Can’t count a kB either

    • Incognito 5.3

      Over at Kiwiblog they are very very happy with National’s huge lead …

      This is awesome for National …

      Made my day, despite the rain.

      There will be much rejoicing in the National camp.

      Thank you Santa.

      Champers time. No wonder English was so happy being interviewed!

      This epitomises the National Paradox: they already have so much and are happy with so little and yet they take (away) so much from those who have much less and so very little …

    • red-blooded 5.4

      Tanz, National are not a third term government – you’re living in the past. They’re the opposition. And they’re not in the lead – or not in a meaningful way, anyway. They’re still the biggest single party, but in NZ single parties don’t form governments.

      (And, BTW, Labour are up 6% of their election results, Nat are up 3%.)

      And when Martyn Bradbury was saying what a dreadful liar John Key was and what uncaring, arrogant arseholes your beloved Nats were while in government, did you love him then for “telling it like it is”?

    • McFlock 5.5

      Gosh, Labour should be panicking: if these trends continue, National will be on 60% polling when the next election comes around! lolz

      • Michael 5.5.1

        What “trend”? It’s one poll. If I was invested in this government’s future (and I’m not), I’d be worried about that NZ First rating: they are being overtaken by the Greens, with whom Labour appears much more comfortable working in government. How long before Winston and his crew wake up to that? Time for some wins for NZ First, I think.

        • BM 5.5.1.1

          If the Greens start polling back over 10% they’d have to be seriously starting to think about renegotiating the current arrangement, especially if NZ First is hovering around 5%.

          • Incognito 5.5.1.1.1

            I reckon the PM must call for a snap election if that happens; we cannot have a Parliament that does not reflect the polls as that would be a travesty of democracy.

            • BM 5.5.1.1.1.1

              Don’t be silly.

              Facts are Labour did a hatchet job on the Greens and reduced them to a position where they had to beg for whatever scraps they were given while Winston Peters gets to sit at the head of the table and feast on this enormous banquet.

              How long do you think it will take before the Greens start to get a bit pissy about that arrangement and demand more than scraps?

              • Incognito

                Don’t be daft.

                Fact is that National lost. You’re only giving us your mischievous opinions, not facts.

        • McFlock 5.5.1.2

          I was taking the piss.

          Frankly, the polls are pretty much irrelevant for probably the next 18 months. NZ1 is well positioned to straddle the LabNat divide, provided national have learned their lesson about how to deal with partners rather than supplicants.

          Labour can work with either greens or NZ1 or both. Where it gets interesting is if Labour get to the position where they can choose between the two – yes, prog lefties want Labour to go with greens, but Lab might go with NZ1 instead.

      • DoublePlusGood 5.5.2

        Yeah, National 60%, Labour 112%, Greens 28%, NZ First -12%, ACT a single vote across the whole country…something like that anyway.

      • alwyn 5.5.3

        That sounds about right.

    • Ed 5.6

      Do some research.
      Who are the owners of Colmar Brunton?

  6. ianmac 6

    In spite of English and co getting huge platforms to undermine Jacinda and team, they still look like loosers. Government go go go full steam ahead.

  7. adam 7

    How does this affect working people in any meaningful way?

    All it does do is remind us we now live in a society run by polls. We just had 9 years of a government deeply committed to doing everything via a poll result. And look at the mess we are in – the coalition will start doing the same, the short term and blissfully ignorant poll will win on the day.

    This is no way to have a society.

  8. Tanz 8

    I think you mean losers. Who cares. National will be back in 2020, with no need for NZ First (who will be wiped out, they will go down from here, not up), and will get to govern for a long long time after that. This is a three year break for them, or less. They have been awesome in Opposition. Question Time used to be a bore, now it is high entertainment. Winston did the dirty on National this time, but justice always wins in the end! As always, God is the real one in charge, His Sovereignty is forever

    • Muttonbird 8.1

      God is in charge? You’ve just outed yourself as a complete lunatic. As if we didn’t already know.

      • James 8.1.1

        What happened to not making comments to exclude others ?

        Whilst I might not agree with the god view – people should not be mocked for their views on the subject.

        There is enough trouble having femail voices on this blog without people like you being rude to them.

        Try commenting on the post and. It attacking the person.

        • Incognito 8.1.1.1

          You make very good points except for this one:

          Try commenting on the post and. [sic]

          You may want to view this educational clip: The Alt-Right Playbook: Never Play Defense https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmVkJvieaOA (HT to Ovid https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-02-12-2017/#comment-1421409)

          Put differently, if you get served an utter shambles in a restaurant you don’t start unpicking (unpacking) what’s wrong with it but you just send the whole lot back to the kitchen with a few critical comments about the chef. And they better redeem themselves or they will lose your custom and personal recommendation (poor online review?).

        • McFlock 8.1.1.2

          Personally, be it a magic book or true story, I’ve never understood how people reconcile the New Testament with being a tory. Unless they took “suffer the little children” as an order, of course.

          • ropata 8.1.1.2.1

            If you are a barely literate hillbilly, you believe what the preacher man says.

            Forget separation of church and state, the Gospel has been replaced with flag waving militarism, capitalist bootstraps, and a cult of US exceptionalism.

            (The actual teachings of Christ have a tendency to demolish the establishment power structure, that’s why he was killed)

            • In Vino 8.1.1.2.1.1

              Sorry, but the church since its adoption by the Roman Empire has adapted the teachings of Christ to turn them into a means of social control.
              What you call the actual teachings of Christ has become a fuzzy grey area, whatever the presumed original Christ may have intended.

              • ropata

                Haha, the biblical texts are the best preserved ancient documents we have. The church has definitely gone astray throughout history but there is little significant change to the biblical canon.

                Variants are listed in critical editions of the text, the most important of which is the Novum Testamentum Graece, which is the basis for most modern translations. For over 250 years, Christian scholars have argued that no textual variant affects key Christian doctrine.

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biblical_manuscript#Textual_criticism

    • Kat 8.2

      What stage of the grieving process do you reckon you are at Tanz?

    • David Mac 8.3

      If I was God I’d vote Green. Stupid to go to all that effort and not back it.

    • Incognito 8.4

      As always, God is the real one in charge, His Sovereignty is forever

      Huh? @ 5 you said:

      Thank you Santa.

      Now, we all know that Santa is doing the bidding of gluttonous profiteering capitalists whom you worship but I am confused now as to whom or what you worship most: Santa, God, Bill, Capitalism, or Gluttony?

      • the pigman 8.4.1

        First Santa, then God. Next it’ll all be John Key’s great work. Too much “champers” I’d say.

        Makes me long for the days of that bored alcoholic LARPing housewife from the SF bay area who used to post here… sweet remembrances.

    • fender 8.5

      “….God is the real one in charge….”

      bukowski by modest mouse

      “…..If God controls the land and disease
      And keeps a watchful eye on me
      If he’s really so damn mighty
      Well, my problem is, I can’t see
      Well, who would wanna be
      Well who would wanna be such a control freak?…..”

    • mary_a 8.6

      @ Tanz (8) … please explain how Winston “did the dirty” on Natz.

      I agree question time is indeed high entertainment. Very entertaining in fact, watching the opposition prove what a vindictive, opportunistic, petulant bunch of sore losers they are.

      “As always, God is the real one in charge, His Sovereignty is forever.”

      Really? Who says? Evidence please!

  9. Muttonbird 9

    I was in my local neighbourhood today and saw that Denise Lee is opening her electorate office on Main Highway in the middle of Ellerslie. This is the type of shop front branding National candidates will employ in an effort to sway voters on visual recognition rather than socially beneficial policy.

    Her office will mirror the Harcourts, the Barefoot and Thomson, and Ray White offices across the street. They sell the same service, after all.

    • indiana 9.1

      Is this sort of branding worse than say posing for Vogue?

      • dv 9.1.1

        At least Vogue gives NZ designers a platform.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1.2

        Good question.

        Mimicking real estate developers vs. a Vogue cover. It’s all a matter of perception I guess.

        For instance, which of them is employed in service of “an effort to sway voters on visual recognition rather than socially beneficial policy”?

      • Incognito 9.1.3

        Well, if posing for Vogue is causing a deepening and worsening of the housing crisis then I’d say the branding is no better or worse.

    • Anne 9.2

      Maggie Barry has her electorate office next door to the local police station. It’s quite a big building and hard to distinguish from the police building. It’s been painted in similar colours which I suspect is an attempt to associate themselves with our fine, upstanding policemen and women of the Police Force who never put a foot wrong – oh no. It’s all imagery and little substance with the Nats.

  10. Marcus Morris 10

    The failures of the last nine years are exposed almost daily. Latest of course was the revelation of the dismal consequences of the much vaunted National Standards. The housing crisis is worse than expected, gridlock in Auckland has lessened little since the opening of the Waterview tunnel and so on and so on. The challenges faced by this government are massive. As mentioned above, the real poll is in three years time and most decent New Zealanders will be hoping that we will be seeing positive improvements. I am just relieved that English and his cohorts didn’t have another three years to continue the damage they were bringing onto our once egalitarian society. (Did I mention water quality?).

  11. Upnorth 11

    Jacinda will not want Winnie to drop that low…watch for a headline by Winnie in a few days or weeks to show is boss

    • lurgee 11.1

      Unfortunately, Ardern has little control over Winston, and he has the self-preservation instinct of a possum in a motorway.

      I fully expect Winston’s arrogance and ‘flexible morality’ to bring about the demise of his party, again. I’m very worried it will damage Labour as well and bring about the return of Zombie Bill for a third instalment in the series.

      2002 – The Night of Bill English
      2017 – The Return of Bill English
      2020 – The Revenge of Bill English?

  12. ropata 12

    Fucking poll results are not significant news. Political horse races and mindless tribalism with zero discussion of policy. It’s just doofus personality shit, Bill vs Jacinda vs Winston. What a waste of news. Please Labour, pass a law to make this tabloid fodder illegal to publish on the front page or lead the news. Especially during elections.

    Do we have to be subjected to more Nat sycophant stupidity? All they care about is kicking the other tribe, notice that Tanz and Alwyn make zero mention of how the Nats have anything useful to offer NZ. They don’t give a shit about the suffering that the Nat regime caused, or its sordid record of corruption and lies. The future of NZ is at stake and all the RWNJ’s have to offer is Trumpish bile.

    • Ed 12.1

      Agreed.
      Ban polls.

    • In Vino 12.2

      With you now, Ropata.

        • red-blooded 12.2.1.1

          There has to be a pretty extreme damage to society and individuals in order to actually ban something, guys. Look at the damage done by tobacco, or alcohol – neither of these is banned. You might find polls annoying (solution – ignore them). You might think they become self-fulfilling, locking in a particular narrative in people’s minds, and maybe the solution is to control them (some countries don’t allow polls just before an election). I’d argue that polls are just part of the political landscape and that they’d have to be doing a lot of proven damage before any government should take an extreme step like banning them. Think how that would play out in public discussion: stifling political discourse, trying to keep people in the dark… Not good.

          • David Mac 12.2.1.1.1

            Yep, polls are fun. It’s placing too much weight in them that is wrong. Someone predicting our current government via the election polls would of finished up very wrong.

            • David Mac 12.2.1.1.1.1

              It’s a situation compounded by the Flim Flam men.

              Paddy Gower: “on these numbers…WE HAVE A BRAND NEW GOVERNMENT!”

  13. mosa 13

    I see the ever reliable One news covered the poll result and that C.B finally realised that calling people on the landline and not their mobile phones means they are missing out adding even more right wing idiots to the total for National because no one has a landline any more.

    If you ignore the hype of Nationals result Labour has climbed to 39 well above the early twenties that had become the norm and was a useful negative news headline for years and now under MMP that is vital for government formation and that Jacinda is most prefered PM.

    What One news deliberately left out was the important mood of the country.

    The majority think it is going in the right direction.

    Not that it is as important as Nationals largest party position and that it must surely on that basis be the government.

    We have changed the government now it’s time to change the media.

  14. lurgee 14

    Jacinda is now by far the most preferred Prime Minister. She is up 6% points and English is down 9% points from the last poll.

    I thought referring to Ardern by her first name was a belittling tactic deployed by the condescending curmudgeons of the right?

  15. lurgee 15

    As for the poll, NZ 1st’s dangerous flirtation with the 5% line should be noted. National aren’t the only major party in need of friends.

    • Matthew Whitehead 15.1

      Actually in this poll, the demise of NZFirst doesn’t hurt Labour because they and the Greens are ahead of National, but they’d need to feel relatively confident of that result. (RM’s result of Labour and Greens having a majority between them last month would indicate that they probably can be confident in that hypothesis, but they’d probably want to wait for the next RM to be sure. Usually results are somewhere between where CB and RM suggest, and CB is probably back to favouring National now it correctly has started adding non-landline respondents to its poll)

  16. Chris 16

    Not really surprising for NZF

    What ever he did he was going to piss off about 50% of his supporters, so losing a clump is hardly surprising

    Doubt they will be in the reckoning by next time if Winston chucks it in anyway

  17. Brian Tregaskin 17

    https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/345867/poll-voters-broadly-say-yes-to-new-government
    Colin james has written a great informed article

    Poll of Polls – Voters have broadly endorsed the new government in three polls taken since the government was formed.”

    “All three polls had a weaker result for New Zealand First than in the election.
    That may reflect the preference of a minority of New Zealand First supporters in two polls, one before and one after the election, for New Zealand First to go with National.
    That preference amounted to 1.9-2.0 percentage points out of New Zealand First’s 7.2% election result. If those voters have deserted New Zealand First since its choice of Labour, that would suggest it might be expected to be polling around 5.2%-5.3% – that is close to the Poll of Polls figure.”

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