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March Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, March 21st, 2015 - 61 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

February’s Roy Morgan had National down 3% and Labour up 4%. The March poll just released has National down a further 2.5%, and Labour up 1%. Margin of error stuff and nothing to get excited about, but certainly not bad news.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National falling to 46.5% (down 2.5% since February). However, support has increased for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners with the Maori Party 2% (up 1%) and Act NZ 1% (up 1%) although United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is at 31% (up 1% – their highest level of support for nearly a year since May 2014) but down for the Greens 11% (down 1%) while NZ First is 6% (unchanged). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 0.5%).

What I find interesting about this poll is that it covers the period where Andrew Little was under sustained attack for his office’s handling a of a bill (remember that?). With Labour’s support at its highest level since May 2014, no harm done it seems.

61 comments on “March Roy Morgan”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    Cementing in a plus 30% result. Next stop, 35% and then on to 40%.

    • alwyn 1.1

      “Next stop, 35% and then on to 40%.”
      Looking at the pattern of Labour and the Green Parties in the poll that of course for the Greens means.
      “Next stop 7% and then on to 2%.”

      Having seen the economic illiteracy last weekend of the Green’s male-leader candidates on TV, I am looking forward to it.

      • felix 1.1.1

        John Key is an economic illiterate who believes that 15% of 129 is 2.

        So um, there’s that.

        • Murray Rawshark 1.1.1.1

          If FJK says 0.15×129=2, we should throw 10 millennia of maths out the window. He cannot be wrong.

  2. The election calculator says 62 seats for Natsies and their patsies, 59 for the rest. So, just a one seat swing. However, if as little as one percent moves from National to Labour, then L/G/NZF can form the next Government.

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      Personally I find all these polls to be fairly useless. Conservatives were so close to getting 5% last time, if they have another crack at it, in a case where National are in melt-down from third term-itis, they could easily scrape up to 6% and get in, likely blocking out the left again. I guess the saving grace here is that by 2017 the section 59 law and marriage equality will be well bedded-in and proven not to be causing the apocalypse, so that’ll take a bit of wind out of their sails.

      At least they’ve regularly had NZFirst over 5% for a while now, but still that’s quite a bit less than what they actually got last election.

      • Colonial Rawshark 2.1.1

        That 5% threshold is way too high…to get around 100K party votes and still potentially be locked out of any MPs is not democracy.

        • Lanthanide 2.1.1.1

          Agreed.

          And that’s the other thing I didn’t even consider – National could easily make an electorate deal with the conservatives this time, since they got real robust PV support last time. Then they only need to get 3-4% to get into Parliament, and no doubt their PV last election would have been higher if they had secured such a deal from National.

          • Colonial Rawshark 2.1.1.1.1

            Sounds about right; no doubt it will be one of the options the National strategists are already pondering, and that the Conservatives will be itching for.

            In contrast, Labour prefers to cut down its potential future minor party coalition partners as if that is a superior MMP strategy and the “right thing” to do. Personally I think National Party strategists have got a better idea.

          • fisiani 2.1.1.1.2

            National have far more options than the fractured and fractious Left plus the Ron Mark led NZF of 2017 who has far more in common with National than Labour. The only way for Labour to get into office is for them to poll over 40% and hope the Greens get 10%. NZF and the Greens are an incompatible mix like oil and water.Stephen Joyce versus Matt McCarten as election strategists is like a man against a boy.
            Polls will ebb and flow but there is no reason why National should ever lose in the foreseeable future.

            • Lanthanide 2.1.1.1.2.1

              House prices always go up.

            • b waghorn 2.1.1.1.2.2

              @ fisi You really do prove the fact that you can’t argue with stupid.

              • fisiani

                Where would Labour get the votes to reach 40%? Why from the Greens of course. A zero sum equation. National voters will not switch to Labour unless they are massively bribed again. How long will the NZ Greens be happy to be the only political party in Parliament that has NEVER been in government? If ever Lab+ Greens +NZF = 50%+ does anyone seriously think the Greens will not be vetoed by NZF? Greens could complain but would have to accept eating shit for another 3 years. At some point the Greens will wake up. 1990-2017 will be a massive 27 years with no chance of being in government. German Greens are smarter.

                • b waghorn

                  As I’ve said below 5-10% of people will swing just to be on the right side of history and history has proven that the nats are quite capable of being taken to the cleaners 26 seats ring any bells.
                  I appreciate you made it through a whole post with none of this drivel
                  “Stephen Joyce versus Matt McCarten as election strategists is like a man against a boy.
                  Polls will ebb and flow but there is no reason why National should ever lose in the foreseeable future.”
                  Cheers

                • Incognito

                  No, it is not necessarily a “zero sum equation” as there is a large number of eligible people who, for one reason or another, did not vote.

            • Murray Rawshark 2.1.1.1.2.3

              Yeah, Joyce is doing real well upsetting Northland.

            • DS 2.1.1.1.2.4

              This would be *former Labour Party candidate* Ron Mark?

              • alwyn

                My goodness you have a good memory. !993 that was, and he didn’t stay with the party very long did he?
                Now for the next question. What are all the parties that Meteria Turei has been a candidate for?
                If you get that one a real tough one follows.
                What are all the parties Peter Dunne has belonged to?

                • Murray Rawshark

                  Who the hell is Meteria Turei? I consider part of being a Kiwi is getting Maori names right and learning to pronounce Te Reo. Not a great surprise that you don’t.

                  • alwyn

                    Oh. Woe is mw.
                    I have upset old Murray here and made a typo.
                    It is of course Metiria and not Meteria.
                    On the other hand perhaps you can tell me how you know that I cannot pronounce Te Reo? To claim that when you have never heard me speak merely proves that you are a liar, or at least a fantasiser, doesn’t it?
                    Come on prove your wild claim. When have you ever heard me pronounce Te Reo incorrectly?

                    • Murray Rawshark

                      Your comprehension of English sucks so much it’s unlikely you’d be any good at a second language. I also bet you never make a typo with FJK’s name, or any NAct politician. Sabin, for example. I bet you never misspell his name.

                      And nah, you haven’t upset me. That’d take something unexpected, not the misspelling of a Maori name.

                    • alwyn

                      I repeat. Perhaps this time you will be able to understand it and reply?

                      “On the other hand perhaps you can tell me how you know that I cannot pronounce Te Reo? To claim that when you have never heard me speak merely proves that you are a liar, or at least a fantasiser, doesn’t it?
                      Come on prove your wild claim. When have you ever heard me pronounce Te Reo incorrectly?”

                      You don’t really expect me to regard a statement such as
                      “Your comprehension of English sucks so much it’s unlikely you’d be any good at a second language.”, as being evidence of any kind do you?

                      I don’t think, after reading your own prose attempts, that you would be a judge worth taking notice of. You appear to base your work on those two idiots who were sacked by a TV program the other day.

                      Still, you do claim to have been to University, don’t you?
                      Pass anything except CAF 101?

          • swordfish 2.1.1.1.3

            Yep, spot on, Lanth.

            The Conservatives are National’s electoral insurance. The fact that Key didn’t even feel the need to do an electorate deal with them in 2014 speaks volumes. There is, of course, the argument that such a deal will lose the Nats as much support (from their softly-aligned liberal voters) as the Government Bloc gains by getting the Colin Craig Brigade into Parliament. It’d be nice to think so but I’m a bit sceptical of that.

        • Clemgeopin 2.1.1.2

          +1

  3. tc 3

    Wait till the next cycle when it may all come out about our beloved PM alleged assissting by not acting with those higher standards in covering up for a prominent NZer…..or maybe thats all a VLWC / KDC and Hagers fault also.

    • mary_a 3.1

      @ tc (3) –
      Yes and won’t it be jolly good fun watching Key’s knighthood go bye bye, when his part in the “prominent NZer” cover up is finally exposed.

  4. gsays 4

    Hi sanctuary, where do you think that 5-10% of votes will come from.
    to be effective they need to come from the right wing voters.
    which means labour moving to the center/right.

    • weka 4.1

      Disenfranchised non-vote.

    • Lanthanide 4.2

      “which means labour moving to the center/right.”

      No, they just have to move more to the center.

      Andrew Little has already signalled that focussing on CGT and raising the super age simply turned a lot of potential voters off (even if they are good policy).

      • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.1

        (even if they are good policy).

        If you consider good government policy as that achieving good social ends in an effective manner as claimed by the proponents of those policies, they were both a bit shit.

        Super age should be dropped to 60 on the proviso that the citizen foregoes further paid work and engages in a days service to the community a week.

    • Olwyn 4.3

      I think that talk of moving left, right or centre is misleading. What they need to do is show themselves as decent, trustworthy and capable. Andrew Little is making quite a good fist of this so far.

      • weka 4.3.1

        Very good Olwyn.

      • Colonial Rawshark 4.3.2

        Three phrases: anti-terrorism bill, intelligence committee and signing of the TPPA.

        • Olwyn 4.3.2.1

          I am as uneasy about those things as you are, but think that Andrew Little seems considered enough to show some judgement with regard to them, and not just slavishly follow suit. Politicians cannot really do too much that is controversial without the justification that comes from public pressure. It is up to us to apply pressure, and up to them to meet it.

    • Sanctuary 4.4

      “…which means labour moving to the center/right…”

      Or, getting into power and pulling the Overton window back to the left.

      • Colonial Rawshark 4.4.1

        If Labour move to the right, they should just do themselves in and merge with National. That at least would free up room in the spectrum for a real left wing party.

        • Lanthanide 4.4.1.1

          Why can’t we have a centrist party?

          • Colonial Rawshark 4.4.1.1.1

            Well, mildly to the Left of Thatcher and Douglas is still pretty right wing…although that is what we tend to call the “centre” nowadays.

      • Murray Rawshark 4.4.2

        +1 Sanctuary
        A political party must believe in something besides getting elected.

    • b waghorn 4.5

      I have a theory that 5-10% of voters just want to be able to say (even if it’s just to themselves )that they voted for the winning party ,you’re ultimate swing voter if you like.
      If the mood shifts or the writing is on the wall for the incumbent government they will swap sides at the drop of a hat.

      • Anne 4.5.1

        Yes, b waghorn I think you have it right only I would up the percentage to 10-15%. I say so because of the voters I’ve come across personally over the years who do seem to vote the way that is trending in the polls. That is why the Nats spend so much of their ample resources on polling. It isn’t so much to see what the voters are thinking (they already know) but rather what they need to do to get them to continue to think the way they want. In other words manipulate them, and we’re seeing a concentrated version happening right now in Northland.

        • Colonial Rawshark 4.5.1.1

          Or as it has been put to me: too many NZ voters treat the election like a day at the races – they see their job as picking the winning party.

          • swordfish 4.5.1.1.1

            What you, Anne and b waghorn are describing is often referred to as the bandwagon effect (polls are self-fulfilling / natural for people to back winners / voters want to conform to majority opinion).

            It’s the most popular of a number of rival theories on the influence of Opinion Polls on Election outcomes. The polar opposite theory is the Underdog effect (rallying to the underdog / empathetic support for those trailing).

            Notoriously difficult to measure but most scholars favour the Bandwagon Thesis. Although, arguably/theoretically, both can occur to different degrees at the same election. Together, of course, with poll results encouraging the sort of strategic voting behaviour that otherwise wouldn’t have occurred.

          • greywarshark 4.5.1.1.2

            CR
            I think that thinking could be a propaganda point next election. Instead of decrying it, own it, and work campaigns around the theme.

  5. Tracey 5

    By being invisible since the election support for MP has increased?

  6. Penny Bright 6

    What were the latest poll results on John Key as NZ Prime Minister?

    When Winston takes Northland off National – watch them come tumbling down, as ‘Brand Key’ goes belly-up, transmogrifying from ‘magic’ to ‘tricky-DICKery’?

    Penny Bright

    • fisiani 6.1

      Wishful thinking as always Penny. Like thinking you can freeload forever.

    • Chooky 6.2

      +100 Penny…spot on!…this is one reason the right wing has always hated Winston Peters the most!…they can’t control him…and he has charisma and shows them up!

  7. swordfish 7

    Compared to 2014 Election Result:

    Lab+Green Up 6 points
    Left Bloc Up 5 points
    Oppo Bloc Up 2

    Govt Bloc Equal
    Right Bloc Down 2

    (Left=Lab+Green+IMP, Oppo=Left+NZF, Govt=Nat+Maori+ACT+UF, Right=Govt+Con)

    Left gaining partly at the expense of NZF but also making inroads into Nat/Right support (bearing in mind: margin of error and the (presumed) traditional underestimation of NZF support in polls).

  8. Upnorth 8

    i prefer the tv one polls – ray morgan polls are too erractic for me – however greens are sliding and most of those votes are going to to the conservative fringe left and right parties.

    I think what this doesnt show is little as prefered prime minister – 10% – thats pretty low

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      “ray morgan polls are too erractic for me”

      Roy Morgan polls are published every 4-5 weeks, like clockwork. The TV1, TV3 and newspaper polls have a much less regular timetable (I can’t discern any particular pattern?). Also, those media outlets always portray their poll as if it would be The Result if an election were held that day, which is stupid. They by and large also ignore polls conducted by other media organisations; there was a period last year where two of them came out at the same time, one having the left bloc on +5 since their previous poll and the other having National up by +5, and they can’t both be true, but the stories they ran is that they both were true.

      • alwyn 8.1.1

        Roy Morgan are actually cutting back on their New Zealand polling this year. Except for the mid-December to late January period they used to poll twice a month, covering the first two weeks and the last two weeks of the month. This year they have only been publishing once a month.
        I wonder if they have less work on in New Zealand nowadays?

        • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1

          I was tempted to say they poll every 2 weeks, but when I went to the web site it didn’t look like that was the case; for last year they largely did, but so far this year they haven’t. Wonder if it’ll pick up again (early-term hiatus?) or stay at this level.

          • alwyn 8.1.1.1.1

            I think they are going to cut back to once a month, at least this year.
            In 2006, 2009 and 2012 which are the comparable years to 2015, they had polls every two weeks from about mid-January, with the occasional 3 weeks to keep in step with the first half, second half of the month pattern.

            Their next poll will be released on 17 April 2015, which follows the once per month pattern and which looks to be the new norm. Shame. Still it is a lot more frequent that the TV or newspaper ones.

  9. Skinny 9

    There will be no major shift in the polls till they prune out deadwood. Now would be an opportune time for Goff to announce he is standing down his MP role and running for Auckland Mayor. Timing would be great if Peters pulls off the NL by election. Forcing National to campaign in another by election helps build momentum, Labour should hold the seat and then they can continue the clean out, showing the voters new talented blood will be available in 2017. If they don’t I’m afraid they will get slaughtered again.

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      Part of Labour’s 2017 campaign will be influenced by whomever wins the Greens male co-leader slot.

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